As the Stanley Cup Playoffs wind down, our focus has started to turn to the offseason. We already spent a week looking at the Seattle Kraken prospect pool, and now we are dedicating this week to free agency, which is just three weeks away. Free agency is always a tricky time.
Current state
Defining the current Seattle Kraken roster that is officially under contract is a bit nuanced, but I am going to do my best. As a starting point, from the returning players from last season’s team, the Seattle Kraken have eight forwards, six defensemen, and two goalies signed for next season.
Currently not under contract but under “team control” are Eeli Tolvanen and Matty Beniers, who are restricted free agents. We expect both players to be qualified and eventually signed before the season starts, so we will pencil them in without an eraser. Additionally, barring any unforeseen circumstances, we think Shane Wright is a lock to make the team next season. Shane is on his entry-level contract (ELC), so we have a number we can punch in for him.
That leaves the Kraken with 11 forwards, six defensemen, and two goalies slated for the roster in October. There are exceptions, but most teams carry the league roster maximum of 23 players by having 14 forwards, seven defensemen, and two goalies. Assuming no trades or other roster changes (e.g., buyouts, offseason injuries), this leaves the Kraken needing three forwards and one defenseman to fill the roster.
Restricted free agents
In a perfect world, the Seattle Kraken would sign their restricted free agents, Beniers and Tolvanen, before free agency opens on July 1 so they know how much money they can spend without going over the salary cap. But we know the world is not perfect, and these types of negotiations tend to linger all offseason, so for the purposes of this exercise, we will use placeholders. For any contract projections, I use Evolving-Hockey.com, which tends to provide the most accurate estimates for short- and long-term deals. The contract projections are behind their subscription model, but if you are interested in more detail and intel, check it out. It is a great site with a ton of information well beyond the contract projections.
The contract projections for Beniers vary dramatically based on the term length of the contract. Beniers could sign a “bridge deal” that will end with him still being a restricted free agent, or he could sign a long-term deal of seven or eight years. We have seen a lot of speculation about a bridge deal being likely, but I don’t think any of that is based on insider information on the negotiations and expectations. For our placeholder, we will conservatively take the most likely estimate from Evolving Hockey, which is $7 million for seven years.
Tolvanen is clearer cut, with Evolving Hockey estimating the most likely scenario as a four-year deal at $4.3 million per year. Let’s punch those numbers in.
What’s left and how could they spend it?
On Saturday, the NHL and NHLPA announced the upper limit of the salary cap for the 2024-25 season will be $88 million. With some basic arithmetic, we can estimate that the Kraken will have roughly $10 million in cap space to fill the remaining four spots. That is roughly $2.5 million per player, but of course, the team is not required or expected to spread that money evenly.
It is unlikely, but the Kraken could allocate most of that money to one player and then sign three players close to a minimum amount. For simplicity, let’s call the “close to” league minimum a $1 million cap hit per player. That would leave $7 million for one player. That would not be enough to sign the likes of top goal scorers Sam Reinhart or Jake Guentzel, but it is in the ballpark for Jonathan Marchessault and Matt Duchene. Both players are 33 years old, and even if they would want to come to Seattle, I think it is more likely that general manager Ron Francis will look elsewhere.
A more likely scenario is that Francis signs two players close to the league minimum and then spreads the additional dollars across two players. The top six defensemen seem set, with Ryker Evans slotting into the regular spot taken by Justin Schultz last season. It also appears likely that the team signs a player close to the league minimum to take the seventh-defenseman role.
Technically, Cale Fleury is already signed for next season but spent most of this last season in Coachella Valley and therefore off the Seattle Kraken’s books. He is a likely candidate to compete for that seventh spot that can step in when injuries arise. Even if Fleury is slotted into that spot, I expect Francis to sign one or two defensemen to compete for that position and to provide some insurance in case of multiple injuries.
The forward roster spots are much more challenging to forecast. There could be a situation where one of the spots is filled by a prospect in the pipeline. Ryan Winterton, Logan Morrison, Jani Nyman, or even Carson Rehkopf could fit that profile. If one of the prospects doesn’t snag a place on the team, the Kraken could try to bring back Devin Shore or someone similar to fill that “close to” league minimum spot. That would leave roughly $8 million to spend on the remaining two forward spots.
I have been mentioning the possibility of targeting Jake DeBrusk over the second half of the season and still think he is a candidate. Evolving Hockey forecasts around a $5.8 million AAV for DeBrusk, which would leave only $2.2 million for that final forward position. There might be decent hockey players available for $2.2 million a year, but not many of them put up the goals the Kraken need to add this offseason.
Other variables and considerations
- Any variance to the actual AAV for Tolvanen and Beniers will impact the cap spend available in free agency for the Kraken.
- Outside of the Expansion Draft and trade deadlines, the Kraken have not made a lot of trades. Based on comments from Ron Francis in postseason availabilities, this offseason feels different. More than a couple of times, Francis mentioned leveraging the prospect pool to make this team better. Obviously, dollars going in and/or going out will impact the cap space available in free agency.
- Although there does not appear to be any obvious buyout candidates coming up for the Seattle Kraken, any potential buyouts would open up some cap space.
- I have implied that the Kraken will spend up to the cap this offseason, but the team might keep some dry powder available going into the season to create more flexibility. The dry powder could be used if other teams need to clear cap space to do their own wheeling and dealing.
It should be clear by now that there are a lot of moving parts to manage the cap space between now and the start to the 2024-25 regular season, but hopefully this gives you a good primer into how the Kraken will approach free agency and any offseason moves related to the cap space. If you have any questions or comments, feel free to use the comments section and we can continue the dialogue there.