A few weeks ago, on the Sound Of Hockey Podcast, we discussed whether the 2024-25 Seattle Kraken are a playoff team. The conclusion was that we don’t know yet. Talent-wise, they are better than last season’s roster, and their goal scoring should improve enough to give them a shot at reaching the postseason.
However, for every new team entering the playoff picture in a season, another playoff team from the previous year must drop out. To get a better idea of which teams might miss the playoffs to make room, I decided to forecast the goal scoring of all Pacific Division teams using the same methodology I used when forecasting the Kraken. This way, we can identify some of the potential teams that might drop out of the playoffs next spring.
Forecasting from the bottom up
Let me say this up front: forecasting is inherently flawed. You are making predictions and assumptions about things with many uncontrollable variables. Nobody knows who might suffer a serious injury or have a breakout year in goal scoring. We simply use the information we have and try to apply it to future outcomes. It’s not perfect, and running it through a more complex statistical model doesn’t guarantee it is “less wrong.”
I will keep it very simple by using a bottom-up approach to forecast the goals scored by every notable player on a roster. For NHL players, I will examine the last three seasons of games played, adjusted goals scored, and average goals scored per game. Then, I will estimate the number of games each team will play and multiply that by their average goals per game to get a forecasted adjusted-goals total for each player. For rookies expected to play in the league, I had to take a more subjective approach by looking at how similar rookies have performed in their first season.
Additionally, the number of games forecasted for a player is 75 games. I am well aware that there will be plenty of players that will play over 75, but injuries are part of the game, and on average I expect the top guys to play 75 games in the season.
The individual player goals forecast will be the least accurate because performance can vary as circumstances change. However, on the aggregate, the totals should be more accurate. That’s my way of saying: please don’t contact me in April to tell me how my forecast for Yegor Sharangovich was way off. It probably will be—I know it.
(**Editor’s note: But if John nails it on Sharangovich’s projection, please do contact him to tell him how brilliant he is.)
Anaheim Ducks
I forecast the Anaheim Ducks to score 231 adjusted goals in 2024-25, which is 35 more than last season. The increase is driven by rookie additions and full seasons from Trevor Zegras and Leo Carlsson. I’m assuming rookies Sam Colangelo (eight goals) and Cutter Gauthier (10 goals) will play 55 games, which might be optimistic in terms of both games played and goal scoring. Zegras only played in 31 games last season after suffering a broken leg, so that might be a bit high as well. He did play 75 and 81 games in the seasons prior to 2023-24, so he’s certainly capable of playing a full season without injury.
Defensively, it’s hard to forecast Anaheim’s deployments next season. The Ducks have shown a cautious approach to integrating players into the NHL, often scratching rookies to avoid overwhelming them in the first season. I assume Olen Zellweger will get more NHL playing time, but at whose expense? Jackson LaCombe and Urho Vaakanainen appear to be the most likely candidates to see a reduction in games, but neither contributes significantly to goal scoring.
Sniff test: I don’t think anyone is expecting much from the Ducks this coming season, so this goal forecast seems a little high. I can’t objectively find a reason to lower the forecast, so for now, I’ll keep it as is.
Calgary Flames
The Flames’ scoring projections are in line with their numbers from last year. They lost several pending free agents at the trade deadline and traded Andrew Mangiapane this offseason. Some of the lost goal scoring will be offset by a full season of Andrei Kuzmenko, who they acquired at the trade deadline, and the signing of Anthony Mantha in free agency. Additionally, Connor Zary looks to build upon his solid rookie season last year. The Flames’ first-round pick from 2021, Matthew Coronato, should also stick with the team this season.
Sniff test: This feels about right, but you wonder how much the losses of defensemen Noah Hanifin and Chris Tanev will impact the rest of the team’s goal scoring. The Flames averaged 3.13 goals per game before Hanifin was traded on March 6 and scored 2.95 goals per game after the trade. Perhaps more telling about the state of the Flames is that they allowed 3.07 goals against per game before the Hanifin trade and 3.81 goals against per game after.
Edmonton Oilers
The Oilers didn’t have a problem scoring goals last season, with 280 adjusted goals—the most in the Pacific Division. This offseason, they added even more scoring with the acquisitions of Jeff Skinner, Adam Henrique, and Victor Arvidsson. These additions contributed 70 goals to their forecast. The losses of Dylan Holloway and Philip Broberg will have minimal impact on overall goal production next season.
Sniff test: This team is going to score a ton next season, but I think this forecast might be a bit too optimistic. A forecast of 315 adjusted goals is 18 more than the top team in the league (Toronto) had last season.
Los Angeles Kings
The Kings lost a few goal-scoring pieces this offseason through free agency, including Viktor Arvidsson, Blake Lizotte, and Matt Roy. They also traded Carl Grundstrom to San Jose and sent the much-maligned Pierre-Luc Dubois to the Washington Capitals for Darcy Kuemper. None of those players are irreplaceable, but the sum of those departures amounts to 40 non-empty-net goals. They backfilled those losses with Tanner Jeannot and Warren Foegele, who collectively forecast at 26 adjusted goals next season. For the Kings to make up the difference, they’ll need young players like Quinton Byfield and Alexis Laferriere to take another step.
Sniff test: This forecast feels about right, but some of the young guys could break out with the additional opportunities provided by the departures. Additionally, Byfield is probably at least a 20-goal scorer next season, but Phillip Danault might be slowing down a bit. Either way, the Kings could be one of the vulnerable teams to lose their playoff spot from last season.
San Jose Sharks
The San Jose Sharks scored the second-fewest adjusted goals in the league with 176 last season. Two of their top goal scorers, Tomas Hertl and Anthony Duclair, were traded at the deadline. In the offseason, they added Tyler Toffoli, Barclay Goodrow, and former Kraken Alex Wennberg, but they need more than that if they want to compete for a playoff spot. The future looks bright for the Sharks with the drafting and signing of Macklin Celebrini and the signing of fourth overall forward Will Smith this offseason. They also appear to have a good young forward in William Eklund, and Thomas Bordeleau might have a chance to establish himself as an everyday NHLer. Oh, and they just traded for stud goalie prospect Yaroslav Askarov.
They’re on the right path, but I only expect them to be slightly more competitive than last year, which wasn’t very competitive at all.
Sniff test: This seems accurate. The Sharks have a lot of youth on the roster but are very thin on experience, which should be a challenge for them this season.
Seattle Kraken
My Seattle Kraken forecast was posted separately a few weeks ago—check it out here. The increase in adjusted goal scoring is attributable to the free-agent signings of Brandon Montour and Chandler Stephenson, as well as the expected positive regression to the mean in goal scoring after a disappointing 2023-24 season in that category.
Sniff test: As I mentioned before, on paper, the team is better this season, but we don’t expect them to reach the same level of goal scoring as in the 2022-23 season. This feels about right.
Vancouver Canucks
The forecast for the Canucks is a drop of 16 adjusted goals from last season. The decline is primarily driven by a projected decrease in goal production from J.T. Miller and Brock Boeser, who both had career highs in goals last season. The Canucks did add Jake DeBrusk in the offseason, which will help replace the goals lost with Andrei Kuzmenko (trade deadline) and Sam Lafferty (free agency). Assuming their goaltending remains stable, the Canucks look formidable again.
Sniff test: Last season, the Canucks had one of the highest shooting percentages in the league, so even Canucks fans might expect a bit of a regression. Even with a 16-goal drop next season, the Canucks are still a playoff team, and that seems accurate.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forecasting Vegas is challenging. They saw several departures this offseason, including 42-goal scorer Jonathan Marchessault, who signed in Nashville, and 16-goal scorer Chandler Stephenson, who signed with Seattle. Offsetting those departures, they acquired Alexander Holtz from New Jersey and signed Victor Olofsson in free agency. Holtz is an up-and-comer who could thrive with more opportunities in Vegas, while Olofsson is just two seasons removed from a 28-goal season in Buffalo. Additionally, if they stay healthy, the Golden Knights should have full seasons from Tomas Hertl and Mark Stone. My forecast estimates 60 and 50 games, respectively, for those two players given their injury history.
Sniff test: It seems like every season we expect the Golden Knights to drop in the standings, but they continue to prove us wrong. They seem like the most likely team to drop out of the playoffs, but there is still a lot of high-end talent on this team.
Summary
This is what it looks like when we put all the Pacific Division teams together.
I know what you’re thinking—how convenient that a writer (and unabashed fan) covering the Seattle Kraken predicts the Kraken will see the biggest increase in goals next season. It’s more than fair to be skeptical—I’m a bit skeptical myself. I did use the same methodology for all teams, but my intimate knowledge of the Kraken could have inadvertently impacted my approach. If nothing else, this was a good primer for the upcoming season, highlighting the roster changes in the Pacific Division and how those changes might play out.
What are your thoughts? Are there any blatant errors in the assumptions?
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