The Kraken capped off the first week of the season with a 0-2 loss to the Dallas Stars on Sunday night. In their first three games of the regular season, they managed just two out of a possible six points in the standings. Despite this, I am encouraged by these early games. In their matchup against the St. Louis Blues, the Kraken looked like the better team for 55 minutes, with only a few defensive lapses that directly led to two of the three goals the Blues scored.
The Kraken showed resilience in the Minnesota game, coming back three times to force and eventually winning in a shootout. They also came back from a two-goal deficit to win, something they didn’t manage all of last season. The team seems more capable now, with a stronger belief in their ability to get back into games. Goals were hard to come by last season, and the challenge of coming back from a two-goal deficit might have seemed insurmountable. Now that they’ve done it, it should give them more confidence moving forward. I felt that same resilience show in the Dallas game, where the Kraken tried to come back from a two-goal deficit again. It’s obviously not a habit you want to fall into, but it’s nice to know the game isn’t over when the other team builds a two-goal lead.
Goaltending has been fine
I’m not suggesting that the goaltending has been outstanding, but it has been solid, and I wouldn’t pin either of the two losses on Grubauer. Joey Daccord’s performance, despite what the advanced analytics might say, was good. According to evolving-hockey.com, Daccord’s expected goals against was 2.98, but he allowed 3.83 (per 60 minutes). I don’t take issue with Evolving-Hockey’s numbers, but this is one of the challenges with public metrics—they don’t have passing data to factor in the difficulty of shot attempts that come off dangerous passes. More on this in a bit, but the goals from Ryan Hartman and Mats Zuccarello came from passes behind the net, which are extremely hard for goalies to track. I’m sure some Grubauer critics are ready to grind their axes, but relax—it’s early.
Areas of oppportunity
I’m sure the coaches are already doing some root cause analysis, but I see three areas that could be addressed in the coming weeks.
Penalty kill
The Kraken are currently 24th in the league in penalty kill percentage. However, they killed all three penalties against Dallas on Sunday, so the improvement might already be happening. In the St. Louis and Minnesota games, though, it felt like the Kraken were often out of position on the penalty kill, chasing the puck rather than holding their formation. Ironically, neither of the two power-play goals scored against them came directly from those instances, but the disorganization is something that needs to be cleaned up to avoid future struggles.
Power play
The Kraken are now 1-for-7 on the power play this season after going 0-for-4 against Dallas on Sunday. Once set up, the power play has looked more threatening than last season, but they’ve struggled to get set up. On Sunday, they managed six shot attempts in eight minutes of power play time, compared to seven shot attempts in three minutes on Saturday. This suggests some progress, but on Sunday they had trouble getting into their setup. This could be due to Dallas’s aggressive penalty kill or early-season adjustments as players learn each other’s tendencies.
One issue I noticed on the power play, and the data supports this, is that the Kraken are struggling to gain possession after faceoffs. While not a perfect proxy for possession, faceoff wins are a leading indicator. The Kraken have won only 31% of their power-play faceoffs, well below the league average of 54%. With an extra skater on the ice, this number should be higher. It’s something to keep an eye on over the next few games.
Unchallenged shots allowed from the slot
Whether it’s early-season rust or too many Jucy Lucys at Shamrocks the night before, the goals the Kraken allowed on Saturday were just too easy. Mats Zuccarello and Ryan Hartman both scored off passes from behind the goal line, which are difficult for goalies to defend. Kirill Kaprizov had an easy path to the top of the crease to tip in a pass from the point, and Matt Boldy’s goal, while on the power play, came from having far too much time and space to get an unchallenged shot. This issue only popped up in the Minnesota game, but it was concerning. You don’t often see unchallenged shots from high-danger areas that aren’t part of a rush. The Kraken battled back but were lucky to get a win given the defensive breakdowns that led to goals.
Again, it’s only three games, but there’s a lot to be encouraged by—especially when compared to the first six games of last season, where they managed just two points. I’m not suggesting this is a playoff team yet, but they’re better than last season’s team.
Other musings
- I audibly groaned when I found out Marc-André Fleury would be the starter for the Wild against the Kraken on Saturday. Going into that game, Fleury was 5-2-1 with a save percentage of .930 against the Kraken. He owned them.
- Despite the public sentiment, the Kraken were decent in shootouts last season, winning three out of seven games that went to a shootout.
- The Kraken never led in Saturday night’s win against the Wild—a feat they only accomplished once last season when they beat the Flyers in overtime at the end of December.
- The boys were shut out on Sunday, but they’ve scored six goals in three games so far. That’s not a lot, but last year they only had two goals in their first three games. We still haven’t seen any goals from Oliver Bjorkstrand, Andre Burakovsky, Eeli Tolvanen, or Matty Beniers yet.
- Shane Wright looks good, but not great. He seems to be building on each game and will probably be due for a couple of goals by the end of next week.
- The Kraken Hockey Network’s studio is beautiful.
- It was mentioned on the broadcast last night, but it’s nice to see the reconstruction of a fourth line that can create chances. Yanni Gourde, Brandon Tanev, and Tye Kartye are looking very good relative to their roles.
- I saw that Nikita Kucherov had a hat trick over the weekend. Two of his goals were empty-netters, which I found mildly amusing.
- After starting their WHL season 1-4-1, the Seattle Thunderbirds have won their last three games, including a big 6-5 win over the Portland Winterhawks. I’m not blaming the slow start on the goalie, but since returning from Buffalo Sabres training camp, goaltender Scott Ratzlaff is 3-0-0.
- Do yourself a favor—make an effort to see Landon DuPont play for the Everett Silvertips this season. The exceptional-status defenseman has 12 points in nine games already, and he’s only 15 years old.
Player performances
Dylan Guenther – The former Seattle Thunderbird has five goals in three games this season, including the first goal in Utah Hockey Club’s history.
Andrei Loshko – The 4th-round pick for the Seattle Kraken in the 2023 NHL Draft had five points in two games for the Niagara IceDogs in the OHL. He has 12 points in six games this season.
Justin Kirkland – The 28-year-old has played 11 NHL games in his career and scored his first NHL goal over the weekend. I love stories like these.
Justin Kirkland nets his first NHL goal. 🔥 pic.twitter.com/cx295FVsDF
— Sportsnet (@Sportsnet) October 14, 2024
Goal of the Week
Jared McCann scored his first of the season when he jumped on the ice as the extra skater during a delayed penalty. It was a huge goal for the Kraken and likely played a key role in their victory.
Chart of the week
The Kraken came back from a two-goal deficit on Saturday, something they didn’t do at all last season. They also lost after being up by two goals when they allowed St. Louis to come back and win in the season opener. Last season, the Kraken won 82% of the games in which they took a two-goal lead at any point. Here are the % of wins based on a goal differential reached within their games.
The week ahead
The Kraken have one more road game against the Nashville Predators on Tuesday before returning home for a five-game homestand. They will face the Philadelphia Flyers on Thursday, and on Saturday they host the currently undefeated Calgary Flames. It’s a low bar, but I feel the team needs at least three out of a possible six points to feel good about the start of the season. Five points or more would be ideal and would put them back on a decent pace. It’s too early to overemphasize any set of games, but after last season’s slow start, it would be nice to not spend the whole year playing catch-up in the standings.
How is everyone feeling out there? Any of you starting to hit the panic button?