What is the value of Vince Dunn to the Seattle Kraken?

Seattle Kraken defenseman Vince Dunn has been on long-term injured reserve (LTIR) since Oct. 17. During a Kraken Hockey Network broadcast on Nov. 8, general manager Ron Francis joined the pregame show and provided an update on Dunn’s recovery timeline.

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GM Ron Francis just joined us on KHN pregame and told us that the hope is Vince Dunn can begin basic skating around Sunday but he’s likely three weeks away from returning. #SeaKraken

— Alison (@AlisonL) November 9, 2024

Three weeks is a long time in the NHL. If Dunn’s recovery stays on schedule, he could return around Nov. 29, when the Kraken travel to San Jose to face the Sharks or perhaps a few days later when the Kraken head out on their East Coast road trip. Encouragingly, Dunn has joined the team on its current Southern California road trip to participate in practices.

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Dan Bylsma says there’s news coming later today on Jordan Eberle.

Vince Dunn will go on the road trip, but it’s just to give him a chance to get into more practices. #SeaKraken pic.twitter.com/8pPZSLdVEM

— Sound Of Hockey (@sound_hockey) November 22, 2024

While it’s not 100 percent clear when Dunn will return to game action, he seems to be inching closer—some time in the next week is a real possibility. The Kraken have upcoming games on Nov. 27, 29, and 30, then have a couple days off before heading to Carolina on Dec. 3.

Kraken without Vince Dunn

Dunn is in his fourth season with the Kraken, and as of Nov. 26 has missed 51 games and counting. The Kraken’s record during these 51 games is 16-31-4 for a .353 points percentage. Not good.

In the Kraken’s first three seasons, Dunn missed 33 games, and the Kraken had a record of 8-22-3 for a dismal points percentage of .288 in his absence. Looking at the last-place teams in the NHL standings over the last 10 years, only two teams had a lower points percentage during the course of a full season than what the Kraken have had with Dunn out of the lineup. The 2023-24 San Jose Sharks had a .287 points percentage, and the 2019-20 Detroit Red Wings managed a measly .275.

Data disclaimer

Most data below includes seasons where Dunn missed multiple games, specifically 2021-22, 2023-24, and the current 2024-25 season. Data from the 2022-23 season is excluded because Dunn played 81 games, missing only one. Interestingly, the Kraken won that game 4-1 against the now-defunct Arizona Coyotes. Coincidence or not, that season marked their best performance and only playoff appearance to date. Any references to 2022-23 data will be specifically noted.

Impact on goal scoring

Let’s examine how the Kraken’s goal production has fared with and without Dunn in the lineup.

The key takeaway from the chart is clear: the Kraken score more goals per game when Dunn is on the ice. As a puck-moving defenseman and a power play quarterback, Dunn significantly boosts offensive production. His ability to transition the puck and create scoring opportunities is difficult to replicate, so the drop in goal scoring during his absence is hardly surprising. It should be noted that Dunn has only played in four games during the 2024-25, so the five goals per game is not sustainable.

A defenseman of Dunn’s caliber isn’t easily replaced, and although Seattle added another puck mover in Brandon Montour in the offseason, these numbers underline just how valuable Dunn is to the Kraken’s success.

Boost to points percentage

What surprised me most was how consistently Dunn has elevated the Kraken’s points percentage—and how this impact has grown during his tenure in Seattle.

The Kraken take the ice

In their inaugural season, the difference in points percentage was .140. During that year, Dunn rotated through several defensive pairings, partnering with former Kraken defensemen Jeremy Lauzon, Carson Soucy, and Mark Giordano. However, he eventually found his ideal linemate: Adam Larsson. By season’s end, Dunn and Larsson had solidified a pairing that remains the Kraken’s defensive backbone.

The playoff year

Although not included in the chart above, the 2022-23 season offers compelling context. That year, the Kraken had their best season yet, finishing with a .610 points percentage and 100 points—good enough to make the playoffs. Two key factors underscore Dunn’s value during this standout season:

1. Durability and Performance: Dunn played a career-high 81 games, logging career bests in average ice time (23:40) and points (64).
2. Dominant Pairing: Dunn and Larsson spent an NHL-leading 1,369 minutes and 22 seconds together at 5-on-5 (per Natural Stat Trick). Their chemistry and consistency provided the foundation for the Kraken’s success.

A step back

In the 2023-24 season, the Kraken took a step back from their impressive 2022-23 campaign but still showed improvement over their inaugural year. Dunn missed 23 games—his highest total as a Kraken. The difference in points percentage between games with and without Dunn was a striking .264.

If you apply this delta to the games Dunn missed, the Kraken could have earned an additional 12 points, bringing their season total to 93 points. While that wouldn’t have been enough for a playoff spot last season, over the past 10 full NHL seasons, 93 points would have secured a postseason berth 60 percent of the time.

The current season

This season, Dunn has only played four games, so the data is limited. Still, the trend remains consistent: the points percentage delta with and without Dunn is .278.

Notably, the Kraken’s points percentage without Dunn sits at .472—while not playoff-caliber, it’s their best performance without him to date (excluding the one-game absence in 2022-23). This suggests the rest of the team is improving as well.

New defensemen in Seattle

The 2024-25 season brought changes to the Kraken’s defensive corps, with Montour joining the team and making an immediate impact. As of Nov. 26, Montour ranks second in the NHL for goals scored by defensemen with seven—trailing only the Colorado Avalanche’s Cale Makar (Booooo!). Montour has also tallied 15 points, putting him on pace for 58 this season, which would be the second-best mark of his career.

Injuries are always tough, but they create opportunities. Ryker Evans has stepped into Dunn’s spot alongside Adam Larsson and performed admirably. As of Nov. 26, the young blueliner has 13 points, ranking 22nd among NHL defensemen. 11 of those points have come at even strength, a promising sign, although he has just two points on the power play. While Evans is gaining valuable experience with the man advantage, expect Dunn and Montour to assume primary power play duties once Dunn returns.

Josh Mahura rounds out the new defensive additions. It took a few games for him and Will Borgen to build chemistry, but they’ve settled into a solid third-pairing duo. While plus/minus isn’t always a reliable stat, Mahura’s +1 rating reflects steady performance. The coaching staff has managed Mahura’s matchups carefully, deploying him on-the-fly for a team-high 69.1 percent of his shifts and minimizing his defensive-zone starts with just 4.2 percent—the lowest on the team (per MoneyPuck).

Once Dunn returns, the Kraken will boast three defensive pairings capable of contributing offensively. Mahura will likely be the odd man out with Evans moving back to the third pairing with Borgen. However, having two elite puck-moving defensemen in Dunn and Montour will pose a formidable challenge for opponents. This could be the key to unlocking the Kraken’s offensive potential.

Dunn’s return

As Dunn inches closer to returning, the Kraken eagerly await his impact. Currently sitting just one point out of a wild card spot, his presence could be the boost they need. On average, during Dunn’s tenure in Seattle, the Kraken have seen a .172 increase in points percentage and an additional 0.82 goals scored per game when he’s in the lineup. These numbers, based on 51 missed games, accent his critical role.

Of course, other factors influence these outcomes—trade deadlines, opponent quality, and other player injuries all play a part. While it’s unrealistic to expect the Kraken to fully realize that .172 points percentage increase, Dunn’s return could still tip the scales. If he stays healthy, a playoff berth is well within reach.

Have questions, thoughts, or suggestions? Drop them in the comments below—I’d love to hear from you!