The Kraken just wrapped up a fun week of hockey at Climate Pledge Arena, winning two out of three games with victories against the Buffalo Sabres and the Pittsburgh Penguins. Their only loss came against the league-leading Washington Capitals. I won’t pretend it was the prettiest stretch of games, but let’s face it—winning is fun.
Saturdays are fun again
The win against the Penguins on Saturday marked the Kraken’s fourth home victory on a Saturday this season. Last season, they went 0-7-2 at home on Saturday nights. Pittsburgh seemed to dominate lengthy stretches of the game, but the Kraken capitalized on key opportunities and never trailed. An added bonus of Saturday’s game was the annual Kids Game, featuring several kids shadowing job functions during the event—not to mention the many young fans in the crowd, thanks to the family-friendly start time.
Face-off follow-ups
It was great to see people discussing my mention of Chandler Stephenson’s defensive capabilities on Reddit last week. Measuring defensive skills using public data is challenging because so many important events aren’t captured. Thinking out loud here: it would be great to have metrics like deflections of passes, elimination of passing lanes, coverage of players, possession in the defensive zone, controlled zone exits versus zone exits that immediately concede possession, and so on—all measured against the strength of the competition on the ice.
Someone in the Reddit thread pointed out Stephenson’s low face-off percentage in the defensive zone, as available on NHL.com stats. I commend the poster for digging into the data and investigating on their own. However, even that stat requires context.
For most of the season, Stephenson has been part of the first penalty kill unit, meaning he takes a lot of face-offs while the team is shorthanded. Being shorthanded naturally reduces a team’s chances of winning a face-off. League-wide, shorthanded teams win only 46.9 percent of face-offs in all scenarios. Meanwhile, Stephenson’s face-off percentage while shorthanded is 50.8 percent.
I should also point out that face-offs are an incomplete stat because what you really want is possession, which isn’t the same as simply winning the face-off. That said, face-off percentages are the best we have right now and are generally a good indicator of possession—though not 100 percent of the time.
Sign or trade
In case you missed it, we did an exercise on the Sound Of Hockey Podcast last week called “Sign or Trade,” focusing on the Seattle Kraken’s pending unrestricted free agents. Using the AFP Analytics midseason extension projection model, we analyzed a couple of players and shared our opinions on whether the Kraken front office should re-sign or trade them based on their forecasted cap hits.
Yanni Gourde’s projected cap hit was $4.1 million AAV over three years. We all agreed the Kraken should trade him if that is what it would require to re-sign him, but I wonder—at what point does the AAV start to make sense for the team? The Kraken need another center for next season, and there doesn’t appear to be anyone in the pipeline who could fill the fourth-line center role. So, if Yanni would stay for $3.5 million, would you consider it?
The other part of the equation is what the Kraken could get for Yanni on the trade market. As I mentioned last week, if a first-round draft pick is on the table, you have to make the trade regardless of Yanni’s potential re-signing number. You could always try to bring him back in free agency, but that rarely happens—so I wouldn’t count on it.
The other interesting player is Brandon Tanev, whose projected cap hit is $2.4 million AAV for two years. Tanev has played very well this season, and at those numbers, re-signing him would definitely be worth considering.
Other musings
- The Kraken improved to 6-2-0 all-time against the Pittsburgh Penguins. The only Eastern Conference team they have a better record against is the Buffalo Sabres, who they defeated on Monday. Seattle is now 7-1-0 against the Sabres.
- Fans at the Capitals and Penguins games this week had the chance to see goals from Alexander Ovechkin and Sidney Crosby. Neither player had scored at Climate Pledge Arena since the Kraken’s inaugural season.
- With their win on Saturday, the Kraken’s record improved to 12-5-3 in games where they score first. When the opposition scores first, Seattle’s record is 10-20-0.
- At this point, it feels like a stretch to consider Seattle, Anaheim, and Nashville in the playoff race. However, Nashville has been the hottest team in January and is inching back into the conversation.
- I haven’t completely given up on the Kraken making things interesting, but until further notice, they are out of the playoffs and are likely sellers at the trade deadline.
- The Kraken have two games against the Calgary Flames before the 4 Nations Face-Off break. Two regulation wins in those matchups would certainly make things more interesting.
- The Capitals looked very strong when they played the Kraken last Thursday. Impressively, the Caps also boast one of the best prospect pools in the league—not bad for a team that hasn’t tanked. They’ve only missed the playoffs once in the last 10 seasons.
- The big trade on Friday between the Carolina Hurricanes and Colorado Avalanche officially kicked off trade season. There’s usually a major trade in late January that starts to grease the trade gears—last year it was Elias Lindholm, and the year before, Bo Horvat. Expect trades to pick up steadily as we approach the March 7 trade deadline.
- Matty Beniers is playing his best hockey of the season right now. His performance seemed to improve after the Kaapo Kakko trade. Since Kakko joined the team, Beniers has scored seven goals in 17 games; before that, he had just four goals in 33 games.
- Speaking of the Kakko trade, Will Borgen signed a five-year contract with the New York Rangers over the weekend. The average annual value clocked in a $4.1 million. I’m happy for Will and, at the same time, thankful the Kraken did not sign for that price tag.
- Buoy attended one of those mascot night events at a Portland Trail Blazers game. I wonder if all those mascots get together after work to enjoy a few “college sodas.”
i fink i’m stawting to wike basketbawl 🧌🏀 pic.twitter.com/rbwKsGkmbs
— Buoy (@SEAbuoy) January 27, 2025
Goal of the week
Sophomore forward Kahlen Lamarche scored this beauty of a goal for Quinnipiac over the weekend.
MARSHY DOES IT HERSELF🤯#BobcatNation x #NCAAHockey pic.twitter.com/YJXey6kPLh
— Quinnipiac Women's Ice Hockey (@QU_WIH) January 25, 2025
Player performances
- Jared McCann (SEA) – McCann’s goal-scoring is off pace compared to previous seasons, but he’s contributing in other ways. He recorded one goal and four assists over the Kraken’s last three games.
- Tyson Jugnauth (POR/SEA) – The unsigned Kraken prospect is on an active 10-game point streak, tallying six goals and 13 assists during that span.
- Joey Daccord (SEA) – Daccord is 4-2-0 in his last six starts with an impressive .928 save percentage. Even in his two losses, he’s kept the Kraken competitive with a chance to win.
The week ahead
The Kraken face a tough matchup on Monday when they head to Edmonton to play the Oilers in Connor McDavid’s first game back after his three-game suspension. It’s hard to expect much from the Kraken in that game, as Edmonton has been playing well lately, winning seven of its last 10 games. Adding the best player in the league back into the lineup certainly won’t hurt the Oilers.
After Monday, the schedule lightens up with home games against Anaheim on Tuesday, San Jose on Thursday, and a Sunday game against Calgary. Both Anaheim and San Jose have been struggling recently. Anaheim is 3-5-2 in its last 10 games, while San Jose has managed just one win in its last 10. I don’t take anything for granted this season, but if there are two games you expect to win, these are them.
Calgary presents a bigger challenge. The Flames currently hold the last wild card spot and have been stingy on defense. One potential advantage for the Kraken is that Calgary will be playing the night before against the Red Wings, which might mean Seattle faces backup goaltender Dan Vladar instead of Calder Trophy candidate Dustin Wolf. That said, Vladar played well against the Kraken earlier this season, allowing just two goals in an overtime loss back in October.
I’ve accepted that a playoff push is unlikely, but I’d still like to see the Kraken make things interesting the rest of the way. Six points this week, including a regulation win against Calgary, are almost mandatory if they hope to have any shot at climbing back into the playoff picture. Either way, I still enjoy the winning—especially at home—so I’d probably be satisfied with a couple of home victories this week.