Strived for 95 points, but came up short; the Seattle Kraken are mathematically eliminated

The Seattle Kraken set out to reach the playoffs this season but have officially fallen short. With the St. Louis Blues’ win over the Colorado Avalanche on March 29, the Kraken were eliminated from playoff contention.

As the NHL inches toward the postseason, the playoff picture is becoming clearer. Still, a few spots remain up for grabs. Here are the final team tiers and matchups to watch.

Updated team tiers

The Eastern Conference has one, maybe two, wild card spots still contested. The Ottawa Senators and Montreal Canadiens currently hold the last two spots, but the New York Rangers, Columbus Blue Jackets, Detroit Red Wings and New York Islanders are all in striking distance. According to Tankathon.com, Ottawa and Montreal have the easiest remaining schedule.

The Western Conference still has a race, but the gap has widened to six points. The St. Louis Blues made no moves at the trade deadline, opting to bet on their current roster. That decision has paid off, as they’re now riding a 10-game win streak that has vaulted them into the a wild card spot. The Calgary Flames remain in pursuit, led by standout rookie goaltender Dustin Wolf, and they have two games in hand. The Vancouver Canucks are fading but not yet out. They have one game in hand and the easiest schedule of the chasing group. The Minnesota Wild have slipped to the final wild card spot and sit one point behind the Blues with 88. They’ll need a strong finish but are getting Kirill Kaprizov and Joel Eriksson Ek back from injury soon.

Although not mathematically eliminated, the Utah Hockey Club has 80 points. That would be enough to make the playoffs in the East, but in the West, they sit eight points out and appear ready to book some tee times.

At the top of the Atlantic Division, the Toronto Maple Leafs, Tampa Bay Lightning, and Florida Panthers are in a tight race. Only two points separate the three teams. Despite Toronto’s recent postseason appearances, it may surprise fans to learn the Leafs haven’t won their division since the 1999-2000 season. Could this be their year?

Fresh off two wins over the Kraken, the Dallas Stars are now the third-best team in the league. They are just four points back of the Winnipeg Jets, hold a game in hand, and remain firmly in the hunt for the Presidents’ Trophy. The battle for the top spot in the West will be fierce, especially since the runner-up is likely to face the Colorado Avalanche in the first round. Winnipeg drew that assignment last season and lost the series 4-1.

Kraken play since the break

The Kraken have remained competitive since the 4 Nations Face-Off break. In 18 games, they’ve gone 7-9-2. That record doesn’t look great, but they held a winning mark of 6-5-1 in their first 12 games. The final six were a gauntlet, with five games against the Playoff Bound tier. They went 1-4-1 in that stretch.

Excluding the shutout loss to the Wild on March 19 and the first defeat to the Stars on March 29, the Kraken were in nearly every game until the end. Since the trade deadline, when they dealt Oliver Bjorkstrand, Yanni Gourde, and Brandon Tanev, Seattle has kept games close. Other than the two blowout losses mentioned, every game was either a win or decided by one goal, not counting empty-netters. They’ve been competitive and fun to watch.

Goaltending

Joey Daccord hit his first sustained rough patch of the season, going 4-7-2 with a .883 save percentage over 13 appearances. Seven of those came against Playoff Bound teams, where he posted a 2-4-1 record.

Philipp Grubauer, meanwhile, is playing his best hockey of the entire season, a stretch that began after returning from his AHL stint. Embracing the backup role, Grubauer appeared in four games and posted a .925 save percentage—his best four-game stretch of the season. “The German Gentleman” has looked mostly sharp, going 2-2.

Point percentages versus team tiers

To reach 95 points, the Kraken needed to maintain a .579 point percentage over the full season. This was broken down by team tier, with target point percentages set for each. Here’s how their actual results stack up as of April 1:

Seattle struggled the most against the Playoff Bound tier, posting a .224 point percentage and going 5-21-3. They fared better against the Bubble and Tanker tiers, slightly exceeding the target against Bubble teams. They went 15-10-2 against the Bubble tier and 11-7-1 against Tankers.

Clearly, the Kraken must figure out how to secure more wins against top-tier teams to return to the playoffs.

Kraken the rest of the way

Seattle has seven games remaining: three against Playoff Bound teams, three against Bubble teams, and one against a Tanker.

• Playoff Bound: Los Angeles Kings (twice), Vegas Golden Knights
• Bubble: Vancouver Canucks, St. Louis Blues, Utah Hockey Club
• Tanker: San Jose Sharks

The Bubble games will be interesting as the Kraken can play the role of spoiler. Those teams need every point. Based on Kraken point percentages by tier, the bar should be set at six points over the final stretch. Anything over six points and they will exceed their season average. Seattle begins its final road trip—five games—tonight against the Canucks.

Things to watch as the season winds down

Even with the Kraken out of the playoffs, there are still stories worth watching:

• Jani Nyman—affectionately nicknamed Li’l Jani—has six points (three goals, three assists) in 10 games and looks primed to earn a roster spot next season. He’ll eventually return to Coachella Valley to help with their playoff run.
• Shane Wright is having a strong first full season in the NHL, with 17 goals and 40 points while averaging 14 minutes of ice time. A 20-goal season would be the icing on the cake.
• Home-ice advantage: Despite their struggles against top teams, the Kraken hold a .500 points percentage at home (17-17-5). With two home games left, I’m rooting for them to finish with a winning record.
• Draft Position: I’m not one to root for tanking, but with the Kraken sitting 29th, draft lottery odds are at play. Finishing 27th gets them a 7.5 percent chance at the top pick. At 29th, it’s 9.5 percent.

This season didn’t go as hoped, but the Kraken showed resilience and have remained competitive in games. With a full offseason ahead, they have a chance to regroup and come back stronger.