Unpacking plus/minus: Why Vince Dunn and Adam Larsson’s numbers don’t tell the full story

While watching the 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs and trying to figure out what went wrong for the Seattle Kraken, I noticed something curious. Alternate captain Adam Larsson led the team in plus/minus this past season with a plus-22 rating. That’s not shocking—he’s a mainstay on the top defensive pairing.

What did raise an eyebrow, though, was that his long-time partner, Vince Dunn, finished at minus-3. That’s a 25-point swing between players who spent most of their minutes on the ice together. Adding to the mystery, Brandon Montour—a player many viewed as one of the Kraken’s top contributors—finished dead last on the team at minus-22.

Let’s take a look at how plus/minus is calculated and dig into why the gap between Larsson and Dunn exists.

What is plus/minus?

The plus/minus stat is simple on the surface. A player gets a plus-one when their team scores at even strength or shorthanded while they’re on the ice. They get a minus-one when the opposing team scores under the same conditions.

But not all game situations are equal. Here’s how plus/minus is applied across different scenarios:

• Even strength: Includes 5-on-5, 4-on-4, and 3-on-3 play. Players receive a plus for scoring goals and a minus when scored against.
• Power play: Players do not earn a plus for scoring on the power play but will receive a minus if the opposing team scores shorthanded.
• Penalty kill: Players do not get a minus when scored on while killing a penalty. However, they do get a plus if their team scores shorthanded.
• Empty net: Surprisingly, empty-net situations count toward plus/minus as long as both teams are at equal strength in terms of total players (goalies and skaters), and no one is serving a penalty. A player earns a plus for scoring and a minus for allowing a goal, even if a goal is scored into an empty net.

Although plus/minus adjusts for manpower on the ice, it does not account for game context—such as whether a team is trailing and has pulled its goalie.

Larsson vs Dunn: How did the gap grow?

Larsson was one of four Kraken players to appear in all 82 games, joining Jared McCann, Matty Beniers, and Jamie Oleksiak. Dunn missed 20 games due to injury, so we focused this analysis on the 62 games both Larsson and Dunn played.

According to MoneyPuck, Larsson and Dunn spent 928 minutes of 5-on-5 ice time together—by far the most-used defensive pairing for the Kraken this season. In comparison, Montour and Oleksiak were paired for 809 minutes over 73 games.

So how did Larsson and Dunn end up with a 25-point difference in plus/minus?

Breaking it down: four key categories

We reviewed shift charts and sorted plus/minus differences into four categories:

• Goalie pulled
• Special teams
• Line changes
• Overtime and other

Goalie pulled

The end-of-game, goalie-pulled situation was the biggest factor in creating the disparity between the defensemen. In the below table, “score with extra man” means the team with six skaters on the ice scored.

Larsson, a defense-first player, is trusted to hold leads late in games. He was on the ice for seven Kraken empty-net goals for (plus-7) and only once was scored on in this scenario (Jan. 20 vs. Buffalo), finishing plus-6.

Dunn, a more offensive-minded blueliner, was deployed when the Kraken needed to tie a game. He was on the ice for 13 empty-net goals against (minus-13) but helped the Kraken score three extra-attacker goals—all in a six-day stretch against Vancouver. His net rating in this category was minus-10.

Montour’s minus-22 season was also heavily influenced by pulled-goalie scenarios. He was on the ice for 16 empty-net goals against, including 12 in which he was on the ice at the same time as Dunn. He was involved in three goals for: two extra-attacker goals and one empty-netter, finishing minus-13.

Special teams aftermath

Only shorthanded goals affect plus/minus during power plays or penalty kills. However, we also looked at goals scored immediately after special teams ended, when defensive pairings are often mixed.

Larsson, who plays on the penalty kill, was on the ice for two shorthanded goals for and was also on the ice for seven goals during post-special teams situations—three goals for and four against—resulting in a minus-1. When combined, these situations netted him a plus-1 overall in the special teams category.

Dunn, on the power-play unit, finished minus-5 in this category. He was on for two shorthanded goals against and several goals against during line reconfigurations. This category does not reflect Dunn’s offensive contributions on special teams. He is second all-time in Kraken power-play points with 54—only behind McCann’s 72.

Line changes

In this scenario, goals were scored while Larsson or Dunn were in the process of getting off or on the ice, but the team had not completed a full change. This often occurs due to icing calls—when players are not allowed to change—or when they get stuck in their zone on a long shift.

Larsson was plus-2 in these moments (five goals for, three against while Dunn was off). Dunn was even (five goals for, five against while Larsson was off). This category had a minor impact in terms of net plus/minus, but it still involved 18 total goals scored—far from an insignificant number of events.

Overtime and other

There are limited opportunities to impact plus/minus in overtime, as the Kraken only played 10 overtime games this season, totaling just 36 minutes of OT ice time in games where Larsson and Dunn both played.

Dunn was even, with one goal for and one against—both in overtime. Larsson, who typically does not play much in overtime, was even in OT this season. His lone plus in this category came from a 4-on-4 situation earlier in the year, which is included in the ‘other’ category.

Putting it all together

The chart above shows the 25-point difference in plus/minus. If you strip out empty-net scenarios—which are highly role-dependent—Larsson would finish the season at plus-15, Dunn at plus-10. That paints a more balanced picture of each player’s 5-on-5 performance.

Removing empty-net goals from Montour’s plus/minus improves his rating to minus-7. While still in the negative, that number may reflect the performance of his defensive partners more than his own play. He spent most of the season paired with Oleksiak (minus-2) and Ryker Evans (minus-12), both of whom experienced their own struggles in the defensive zone.

Wrapping up

Plus/minus is not a perfect stat, and this analysis reinforces that. Understanding plus/minus requires context—game situations, deployment, and defensive pairings all play a role. Without that, the stat can give a misleading impression.

Dunn and Larsson—and the Kraken defense as a whole—had an up-and-down season marked by inconsistency. While their performance left room for improvement, there were still strengths to build on. Expect the team’s next head coach to place a strong emphasis on improving the defensive side of the puck.