Understanding the arbitration process: What it means for Kaapo Kakko and the Kraken

It happens every offseason—restricted free agents file for arbitration, and fanbases panic. In the case of the Seattle Kraken, forward Kaapo Kakko has filed for arbitration, becoming the fifth player in franchise history to do so. However, no Kraken player has ever made it to an actual arbitration hearing. Each has instead found common ground and signed a contract beforehand.

So, what does the arbitration process entail, and what does this mean for Kakko and the Kraken?

Requirements for arbitration

Arbitration is a mechanism that allows a neutral third party to determine a fair contract when the team and player can’t agree. Each side presents their case—each limited to 90 minutes—and within 48 hours, the arbitrator issues a binding ruling on the player’s salary.

The result is a one- or two-year deal at a salary determined by the arbitrator. The team, if it did not file, gets to choose the term. The exception is if the player is one year away from unrestricted free agency; in that case, only a one-year deal can be awarded. Kakko is one year away from being a UFA, so if his negotiation gets all the way to a hearing, the arbitrator will award a one-year deal.

The ruling is final, unless the award exceeds $4.85 million for the 2025 season. If it does, the team can walk away, making the player an unrestricted free agent. This threshold adjusts annually.

Who is eligible?

A player’s eligibility for arbitration depends on his age upon signing his entry-level deal and how many professional seasons he has accrued. For players who signed at age 18 or 19, a professional season is counted if he plays 10 or more NHL games. At age 20 and older, it’s 10 or more games in any pro league (NHL, AHL, ECHL, or top overseas leagues).

Here’s the breakdown:

Age 18-20 signed contract	4 professional years
Age 21 signed contract	3 professional years
Age 22-23 signed contract	2 professional years
Age 24+ signed contract	1 professional year

Who can file and when?

Both players and teams can file for arbitration, though it’s far more common for players to do so. Players must file by July 5 at 5 p.m. ET.

Teams have two windows to file:

• June 15 through 48 hours after the Stanley Cup Final.
• July 5 at 5 p.m. through July 6 at 5 p.m., if the player did not file.

For a team to file, the player’s previous base salary (not average annual value) must exceed $2.43 million (per PuckPedia, as of 2025). Teams may use this route if they wish to avoid issuing a qualifying offer at the player’s prior salary. Through arbitration, a salary reduction is possible, with the maximum decrease capped at 15 percent. It also blocks the player from signing an offer sheet. The Buffalo Sabres just used this strategy with Bowen Byram.

Once a filing is made, a hearing date is scheduled between July 20 and August 4. Contract negotiations can continue right up to the hearing, but once it begins, both sides must abide by the arbitrator’s ruling.

Most never reach a hearing

Despite the headlines, arbitration hearings are rare. Since Seattle entered the league in 2021-22, 60 players have filed for arbitration:

• 2022: 23 filed, 1 hearing
• 2023: 23 filed, 3 hearings
• 2024: 14 filed, 1 hearing

That’s just five hearings out of 60 filings. The rest were resolved with signed contracts ahead of time. This season, 11 players have filed for arbitration.

Kakko’s unique situation

Kaapo Kakko’s case is more complex than past Kraken arbitration filings. His negotiation comes at a unique intersection of three key factors:

NHL salary cap jump

The cap is set to rise from $88 million to $95.5 million next season, then to $104 million in 2026-27, and again to $113.5 million in 2027. This makes short-term deals more appealing to players who want to cash in later. But there’s risk—contracts are guaranteed, but a major injury on a one-year deal can derail a payday.

Production and potential

Kakko tallied 30 points (10 goals, 20 assists) in 49 games with Seattle after his midseason acquisition from the New York Rangers and has shown good chemistry with Matty Beniers. That projects to a 50-point season over a full schedule. At age 24, Kakko may prefer to bet on himself, aiming to boost his value heading into his prime years. Seattle, meanwhile, is likely to make an offer aligned with his current production rather than anticipated growth.

UFA status

If Kakko signs a one-year deal, he keeps his path open to unrestricted free agency. That doesn’t necessarily mean he wants to leave Seattle, but it gives him flexibility and leverage.

In March, I previewed RFA expectations for the Kraken. Kakko’s case stood out then—and even with his arbitration filing, my expectations and predictions remain unchanged.

Potential outcomes

Here are three realistic outcomes for Kakko’s contract:

1. Longer-term deal – Five years at $6 million AAV
2. Short bridge deal – One or two years at $5 million AAV
3. Arbitration hearing – One-year deal awarded in the $4 million to $4.5 million range

Technically, Seattle could sign Kakko for up to eight years, but that would take him through age 32. A five-year deal would expire when he’s 29, allowing him to cash in once more when he’s still in his prime and likely able to land another significant contract.

Final thoughts

Arbitration filings sound dramatic, but they’re often just a step in the negotiation dance. Most cases settle before a hearing, and both sides move on.

Still, the process can be awkward. During hearings, teams must point out a player’s flaws to justify their stance—comments that can linger long after the deal is done.

For fans, it’s easy to worry, but there’s no need to panic. This is just part of doing business in the NHL offseason. Negotiations take time—and patience is key.