Kraken winning streaks vs. losing streaks: What the data shows

The Seattle Kraken are riding a nine-game point streak, going 8-0-1 in that stretch. On Dec. 19, just before the streak began, Seattle was tied for last in the NHL with 30 points after matching a franchise-worst stretch at 1-9-1. Since then, the Kraken have collected 17 of 18 possible points and now sit third in the Pacific Division.

As fans suffered through Losing Streak Camille and Losing Streak Darren, there were still reasons for optimism. All but two games, both against Edmonton, were one-goal losses once empty-net goals were removed. The Kraken were competitive but consistently finished on the wrong side of the result. Interestingly, by the eye test, Seattle has not played as clean during the current points streak as it did during the losing stretch.

To explore that discrepancy, I compared game-level data from three segments: the current point streak, the losing streaks, and the games prior to Camille and Darren. With the point streak at nine games, the losing stretch at 11, and the pre-Camille segment at 21 games, all comparisons use per-game averages. Data is based on all situations and sourced from MoneyPuck.

• Pre-Camille: 21 games from Oct. 9 to Nov. 22
• Losing streaks: 11 games from Nov. 23 to Dec. 18
• Points streak: nine games from Dec. 20 to Jan. 6

Expected and actual goals

On Nov. 22, just before Losing Streak Camille, the Kraken ranked third-to-last in the NHL in goals scored. With only 2.58 expected goals for per game, Seattle relied heavily on defensive structure and low-event games.

Several trends stand out in the data. During the pre-Camille stretch, expected and actual goals for and against tracked closely. As Seattle pushed for more offense during the losing streak, expected goals for increased by 16.9 percent. The results did not follow. Actual scoring fell to two goals per game, while expected goals against jumped 27.4 percent to 2.91.

That trend reversed during the turnaround. Expected goals for climbed again to 3.16, but the finishing finally arrived. Over the past nine games, the Kraken have averaged 3.89 goals per game while allowing just 1.89.

There are also red flags. During the point streak, expected goals against sit at 3.69 per game. Across the season to date, a 3.69 xGA would rank last in the NHL. Vancouver currently holds that honor at 3.52. As the eye test suggested, Seattle often posted higher expected goals for than expected goals against during the losing streaks, but the scoring support was not there.

Goaltending

For this section, the focus is on team-level goaltending rather than individual performances. Team save percentage shows a strong relationship with goal support, particularly when Seattle scores first.

• Pre-Camille: 13 of 21 games with the first goal, 61.9 percent
• Losing streaks: three of 11 games, 27.3 percent
• Point streak: eight of nine games, 88.9 percent

Goaltending has been a major strength during the point streak, after dipping below .900 during the losing stretch.

Playing with the lead also continues to set this team up for success. Seattle has scored first in 24 of 41 games this season.

Despite expected goals against reaching their highest point of the season, the goaltenders have delivered. Over the last nine games, the Kraken have posted 16.2 goals saved above expected. Across the rest of the season, including pre-Camille and the losing streaks, they sit nearly even at minus 0.4.

Shots

Before the losing streak, Seattle generated only 24.4 shots on goal per game. If that pace held through Jan. 6, the Kraken would rank last in the NHL. During that stretch, there was a clear shift toward urgency and putting more pucks on net.

Shots on goal increased from 24.4 to 28.3 per game, a 16 percent jump that closely mirrors the 16.9 percent increase in expected goals for. Shot attempts rose even more sharply, up 19.5 percent.

That increase came with tradeoffs. Missed shots rose 23.1 percent and blocked shots climbed 21.9 percent. Both exceeded the growth in overall shot attempts, meaning a larger share of shots failed to reach the net.

The point streak tells a different story. Shot attempts are at their lowest point of the season, driven in part by Seattle frequently playing with the lead.

During the point streak, the Kraken have trailed for just 3.1 percent of total game time, or 17:03.

Even with fewer shot attempts, shot quality and efficiency have improved. Missed shots are down 39.5 percent and blocked shots are down 33.1 percent. Shots on goal have dipped by only one per game, to 27.3, and remain 11.9 percent higher than during the pre-Camille stretch.

Kraken can’t rest on their laurels

The Kraken continue to benefit from the current point streak, but there is little margin for complacency. Offensive progress is real, and goaltending has been the anchor. The balance between offense and defensive structure remains a constant tug-of-war. Limiting high-danger chances and bringing expected goals against back down should be a priority as Seattle looks to sustain its scoring gains.

The Kraken will look to extend their point streak to 10 games Thursday against the Minnesota Wild at Climate Pledge Arena. The Wild are coming off two losses to the Los Angeles Kings (one regulation and one shootout loss).

Feel free to leave any comments or questions below, and Go Kraken.