Down on the Farm – Saarinen’s Liiga dominance, and the Kraken development track record

This is “Down on the Farm,” your weekly Seattle Kraken prospects update. Believe it or not, we’re nearing the end of prospect seasons around the globe. Several prospects are already done with their seasons entirely, and others are entering their league’s playoffs this week. Where did the time go?

Today, we’ll offer some perspective on goalie Kim Saarinen’s sterling season in the Finnish professional league, and we’ll offer a few data points to consider when evaluating the Kraken’s development track record.

After that, we’ll have additional Kraken prospect news, video, and data updates, the Sound Of Hockey Prospect of the Week, and a preview of the week ahead, as always.

If you have a Seattle Kraken prospect–related question you’d like to see featured in a future column or mailbag, drop us a note below or on X or BlueSky at @deepseahockey or @sound_hockey.

Kim Saarinen’s Liiga season puts him in rare company

Liiga finished its regular season this past week, and Kim Saarinen ended up atop the save percentage leaderboard with a .916 mark. According to shot quality metrics published by NHL.com, Saarinen saved approximately 21 goals above expected in his 38 appearances. (For reference, according to Natural Stat Trick, Joey Daccord and Philipp Grubauer have both saved approximately 15 goals above expected in 41 and 27 game appearances, respectively.)

It’s worth noting again that Saarinen is only 19 years old. The last teenager to lead Liiga in save percentage was Kari Lehtonen in the 2001–02 season.

The last Liiga goalie under 20 years old to finish the season with a .916 or better save percentage was fellow Kraken prospect Nikke Kokko, who finished the 2023–24 season with a .917 save percentage just days before turning 20.

The Kraken’s development track record and the 2021 draft

From my limited vantage point, it appears there has been a narrative making the rounds on the internet that the Kraken have struggled to develop players.

There are many reasons one might legitimately criticize the organization. Their NHL success has not lived up to anyone’s expectations. One can second-guess the transactions they have made or not made, or the players they have drafted or not drafted.

I’m just not sure “development of young players in the organization” belongs on a list of categorical indictments. Developing an NHL player is very difficult, and I’d submit that there is ample evidence indicating the Kraken have succeeded as a development team when measured against fair benchmarks. At the very least, I think we have a more mixed, nuanced question than some would like to admit.

Four-plus seasons on, we are now in the range where we can start to evaluate the Kraken’s first draft class from the 2021 NHL Draft. The development results from that draft are excellent.

Five of the team’s seven picks from that draft have made their NHL debut: Matty Beniers, Ryker Evans, Ryan Winterton, Ville Ottavainen, and Jacob Melanson. This 71 percent pick-to-NHL-player rate is by far the highest in the league. The only other team to have five players from the 2021 draft make their NHL debut is Carolina, and the Hurricanes picked 13 times. No other team has had more than half of its 2021 draft picks reach the NHL. The average rate is 30 percent—about two out of seven.

Overall, the team’s 595 total NHL games played from the 2021 draft class ranks third in the league. Its 99 goals scored ranks fourth. And, despite being an expansion team, this wasn’t an NHL roster brimming with opportunity. The Kraken’s NHL roster has been stuffed with mid-level veterans throughout its existence.

One might be critical that high-end production has been missing from this group. Its .44 points per NHL game played ranks ninth in the league. That said, I think it’s important to consider the draft environment. Only Wyatt Johnston, Dylan Guenther, and Mason McTavish have offered similar or superior goal-scoring production to the players Seattle ended up with. Johnston and Guenther were not considered top-five talents at the time, and McTavish has been benched by the Ducks of late.

For his part, Beniers won the Calder Trophy with a stellar rookie season and has settled in as the player I always envisioned: a 50-to-60 point, defense-first, cornerstone center. Goal scoring was never going to be his calling card, so I don’t view it as a development failure that Guenther and Johnston are putting up higher totals now.

When talking about this era, we should also consider that the team’s sixth-rounder, Semyon Vyazovoi, might be the Kraken’s best goalie not currently in the NHL. It’s also fair to add in the undrafted signing of Tye Kartye on the ensuing free agency day.

One might fairly contend that Kartye’s play stalled out at the NHL level over the last year, leading to his waiver. In the big picture, though, I’d argue Kartye’s case must be viewed as a development success. The Kraken identified and developed an unheralded player and got 180 regular-season and 10 postseason NHL games from him.

Kartye’s case brings us to the key example most would cite for the initial premise: 2022 first-round pick Shane Wright. He is worthy of a separate offseason deep dive, but for today’s purposes, I will say only that it is probably unwise to draw sweeping conclusions from a sample size of one player. He has not taken the step forward many of us had hoped for this season, and it’s certainly fair to ask where to put the “blame” for that. Personally, I don’t have a confident answer to that question yet.

What I am confident in saying is that the Kraken have produced NHL-capable players from the 2021 draft at a strong clip. The team’s more recent drafts are harder to evaluate, but there certainly seem to be some “hits” (and “misses”) in there. The Kraken are still looking for a star performer, but it’s early yet for that and probably not a fair expectation given the “modest” quality of the 2021 and 2022 NHL Drafts.

Notes on six other Kraken prospects

Nathan Villeneuve | F | Windsor Spitfires (OHL)

Nathan Villeneuve was injured on a hit by Kitchener’s Matthew Andonovski on Mar. 8, which resulted in supplemental league discipline for Andonovski. Villeneuve has not appeared in Windsor’s four games since that time. He remains out of the lineup as of Friday, Mar. 20.

Check out his shifts from Windsor’s Jan. 21 game against Kitchener below.

Lukas Dragicevic | D | Coachella Valley Firebirds (AHL)

The Coachella Valley Firebirds announced that Lukas Dragicevic is out week-to-week with a lower-body injury. Dragicevic has one goal and 10 assists in 43 AHL games this season.

An AHL blue line that once looked overstuffed with playable young prospects has been ravaged by injuries this season. Gustav Olofsson, Ville Ottavainen, and Caden Price have all missed long stretches of the season, though Olofsson has returned to the lineup recently.

Ville Ottavainen | D | Coachella Valley Firebirds (AHL)

There is also good news on Ottavainen. He skated with the team in warmups before Coachella Valley’s Wednesday, Mar. 18 game in San Jose. According to Firebirds announcer Evan Pivnick, Ottavainen is on the verge of returning to the lineup. His presence is desperately needed.

Jake O’Brien | F | Brantford Bulldogs (OHL)

According to a survey of OHL scouts conducted by The Athletic, Jake O’Brien has been the best player in the OHL Eastern Conference this season in terms of on-ice intelligence and playmaking ability.

By scoring two goals and adding six assists in three games this week, O’Brien also earned another accolade: Sound Of Hockey Prospect of the Week.

Logan Morrison | F | Coachella Valley Firebirds (AHL)

With an assist against San Jose on Wednesday, Logan Morrison reached 81 career AHL regular-season assists. This mark is the most in Coachella Valley Firebirds history, passing Kole Lind. His 54 total points are the most on the team this season.

Jani Nyman | F | Seattle Kraken (NHL)

With Ryan Winterton out of the lineup due to sickness, the Kraken were down to 11 healthy forwards. This prompted the team to recall Jani Nyman on an emergency basis. He was in the NHL lineup right away again, but only played six minutes against Nashville on Thursday. Nyman, who has 18 goals and 27 total points in 29 AHL games, figures to return to Coachella Valley once the NHL team gets a bit healthier.

Kraken prospects data update

J.R. Avon stepped into Nyman’s spot on a line with Morrison and Jagger Firkus on Wednesday. While the line is not quite the same without Nyman, Avon had a goal on three shots, and the team was plus-one with him out there. With the goal, Avon matched his previous AHL career high in goals (7) and surpassed his previous AHL total points high-water mark—and he has done it in only 31 games. He’s played well for the Firebirds when healthy. He’s a pending restricted free agent.

We’ll return with full-season recaps, likely next week, but in the meantime, it’s worth noting that the NCHC seasons for Zaccharya Wisdom and Ollie Josephson, as well as the ECAC season for Ben MacDonald, all came to an end last week with conference tournament losses. Clarke Caswell and Denver remain alive in the NCHC tournament.

Semyon Vyazovoi had a strong week, posting a .948 save percentage in three starts. Had his team played better around him, he may very well have been the Prospect of the Week. As it was, he won only once—and it was via a shutout.

As the KHL moves toward the playoffs this coming week, Vyazovoi stands fourth in the league in regular-season save percentage.

Sound Of Hockey Prospect of the Week tracker

3 wins: Jagger Firkus, Jake O’Brien, Kim Saarinen, Julius Miettinen

2 wins: Logan Morrison, Nathan Villeneuve, Semyon Vyazovoi

1 win: Alexis Bernier, Barrett Hall, Ollie Josephson, Tyson Jugnauth, Nikke Kokko, Oscar Fisker Mølgaard, Victor Ostman, Zaccharya Wisdom

Previewing the week ahead

This week’s Deep Sea Hockey Game of the Week is the Saturday afternoon NCHC final pitting Denver against Minnesota Duluth on Saturday at 5:07 pm PDT.

Video from the vault

I’m soft-launching a new section here, one that I’m calling “video from the vault.” Each season, I make dozens of prospect videos that I don’t end up sharing publicly. (The goal is that they will have a home and purpose eventually. More on that this offseason. Maybe?) For now, I’m going to start sharing them here. They may be—and likely will be—older videos. So this is for the real film nerds and prospect enthusiasts like me out there.

This week it’s Berkly Catton at the 2024 CHL Top Prospects Game. Enjoy.

Tracking 2026 NHL Draft prospects: Jack Hextall

Jack Hextall is a 6-foot, right-shot center for the Youngstown Phantoms of the USHL. He started his draft season off very well with an impressive showing for Team USA at the Hlinka Gretzky Cup. He plays a high-energy but sound, smart, pro-projectable game. His scoring has not always lit up the boards (53 points in 55 USHL games), but he does many little things right. Scott Wheeler of The Athletic had Hextall No. 33 in his most recent prospect rankings. Hextall was No. 32 on our mid-season Big Board. Hextall is committed to play at Michigan State University next season.

Recent prospect updates

March 13, 2026: Kraken prospects mailbag – part 2

March 7, 2026: Seattle Kraken sign Ryden Evers, trade from draft asset depth

February 27, 2026: Rangers claim Tye Kartye, Kraken re-sign two forwards

February 20: 2026: David Goyette suspended for 20 games

February 13, 2026: Projecting NHL futures for Logan Morrison and Jagger Firkus

February 6, 2026: Seattle Kraken prospects midseason mailbag

January 30, 2026: Kraken prospect trade value tiers

January 23, 2026: Alexis Bernier set to return, early 2026 NHL Draft thoughts

January 16, 2026: Jacob Melanson is speeding toward an NHL future despite the demotion

January 9, 2026: World Juniors reports, CHL trades

January 2, 2026: Mid-season Kraken prospect ranking