The Seattle Kraken dropped their second game in as many nights, falling 5-1 to the St. Louis Blues.
St. Louis came out firing. The Blues put eight shots on net, rang two shot off the posts and got a goal from Dylan Holloway before Seattle even registered a shot. Holloway later added a second-period goal and an empty-netter to complete the hat trick.
After the opening goal, Seattle pushed back. Kaapo Kakko scored the equalizer to make it 1-1. The Kraken then outshot the Blues 10-3 over the next stretch.
That momentum did not carry into the second period, however. St. Louis scored twice in the first 95 seconds and never looked back. Philipp Grubauer made several strong saves to keep the game close, but the offense never followed.
Although the Blues have 3 goals, Philipp Grubauer has made some big saves to keep this from getting out of hand.
Jared McCann, Matty Beniers and captain Jordan Eberle form Seattle’s top line. You would not have known it in this one.
The trio recorded zero shots at five-on-five despite leading the team in ice time. McCann has 22 points since the calendar turned to 2026. Beniers has 14, and Eberle has 13. Still, the line went scoreless for the second straight game.
Pointless nights happen. But generating no memorable chances against a team ranked 31st in the league is more concerning.
Per MoneyPuck, the line produced just 0.131 expected goals, the lowest of Seattle’s four lines. Shane Wright’s line led the way at 0.750. Chandler Stephenson’s group posted 0.488, followed by Ben Meyers’ line at 0.430.
Before the Olympic break, Seattle averaged 3.53 goals per game in 2026. One goal in each of the last two games will not win consistently. The offense needs to get rolling again.
Takeaway 2: Starting slow
For the second straight game, Seattle looked slow out of the gate. The intensity was not there early.
On offense, the Kraken forced passes instead of putting pucks on net. With the Kraken trailing, the situation called for a sustained push and a focus on getting pucks to the net front, but that push never materialized. Instead, Seattle committed 18 turnovers and stalled its own momentum.
The Blues controlled the first eight minutes and scored first. Seattle responded to tie the game, but the second period opened with two quick goals against. St. Louis struck again in the opening minute of the third. Those early goals in each period halted any comeback before it could begin.
After going 0-4 on the power play against Dallas, Seattle finished 0-3 against St. Louis. The unit is now 0-7 since the break.
The Kraken generated five shots and just 0.08 expected goals across six minutes of power-play time. Quality chances were nearly nonexistent.
Seattle still converts at 22.4 percent on the season, which ranks 11th in the NHL. This is a two-game sample, but the Kraken powerplay looked slightly out of sync, which made it difficult to connect on one-timers and get pucks on net.
On to the next
St. Louis entered the night ranked 31st in the league, but the Blues gave the Kraken more than they could handle and clearly looked like the better team.
On Saturday, Seattle faces Vancouver, which sits 32nd in the NHL. If there is a lesson from this loss, it is simple. Rankings do not matter if the team is not ready at puck drop.
The Kraken return home looking to reset. Two losses to start the post-Olympic stretch are not ideal, but the Kraken still hold the final wild card spot. The response now matters more than the stumble, especially with a home crowd ready to push them and help fuel that home-ice advantage.
Leave any comments or questions below.
Blaiz Grubic
Blaiz Grubic is a contributor at Sound Of Hockey. A passionate hockey fan and player for over 30 years, Blaiz grew up in the Pacific Northwest and is an alumni of Washington State University (Go Cougs!). When he’s not playing, watching, or writing about hockey, he enjoys quality time with his wife and daughter or getting out on a golf course for a quick round. Follow @blaizg on BlueSky or X.
Well, that wasn’t the post-Olympic start the Kraken wanted, but it also wasn’t terribly surprising.
Facing an outstanding Dallas Stars team that has had their number, the Kraken just didn’t generate much offensively and didn’t seem to be firing on all cylinders. And although their defensive structure looked decent for much of the night, pucks still found their way into the back of Seattle’s net, while the team struggled to solve Casey DeSmith—who continues to be a massive thorn in the Kraken’s side this season.
“We failed to execute on a lot of different situations,” coach Lane Lambert said. “For whatever reason, apparently we had a pass-first mentality instead of a shoot-first mentality. That just doesn’t work with our hockey team. There’s no excuse for it, there’s no reason for it. We’ve got to be better.”
Here are Three Takeaways from a 4-1 Kraken loss to the Stars.
Takeaway 1: Ice tilted, but also some bad bounces
The Kraken shouldn’t get too big of a pass for how that game played out. Dallas was undoubtedly the better team, and Seattle mustered just three shots in the first period and six in the second.
“We had opportunities to shoot the puck, and we didn’t, that’s just the bottom line. We need to get more pucks to the net,” Lambert said. “It certainly wasn’t our game, and certainly not the way we want to play and not the way we had been playing before the break.”
But…
I didn’t think the effort was that bad. While the offensive side left plenty to be desired, the team—and its goaltender—defended better than the four goals against by the 6:14 mark of the second period might suggest.
Joey Daccord and the Kraken simply got some bad bounces. Three of the four goals against—both of Wyatt Johnston’s tallies and Matt Duchene’s—came off redirections of shots that would have missed the net. That’s not to say they weren’t legitimate goals; Dallas did exactly what good teams do by getting traffic to the front and getting sticks on pucks. But it wasn’t as if the Kraken were throwing pizza pies into the slot or repeatedly blowing assignments.
Despite the four goals against and a .875 save percentage, Daccord looked sharp and came up with a few spectacular stops to keep things from getting more out of hand.
Enormous save by Joey Daccord on Jason Robertson in the last minute of the 1st period to keep the #SeaKraken deficit at 1-0.
Seattle had two power-play opportunities in the frame but came up empty. Got outshot 11-3, though the period didn't *feel* that lopsided. pic.twitter.com/A1XJJ03Mko
The result wasn’t there. The execution wasn’t there. But it wasn’t a total structural collapse, either.
Takeaway 2: Tye Kartye is the odd man out
Lambert alluded last week to the fact that Seattle was going to have a roster decision to make upon returning to action.
The last time the team faced a numbers crunch while nearly fully healthy, the front office elected to send Jacob Melanson to the Coachella Valley Firebirds, since he was one of just three players—along with Shane Wright and Ryan Winterton—who could be sent to the AHL without requiring waivers.
With Berkly Catton and Ben Meyers both returning from injured reserve Wednesday, making the Kraken fully “healthy” (except for Matt Murray, who remains on IR), it was somewhat surprising to see Tye Kartye no longer listed on the Kraken’s official roster.
His removal suggests he will likely appear on waivers Thursday when the NHL processes its transactions. Once placed on waivers, teams around the league will have 24 hours to claim him. If no one does, he can report to Coachella Valley.
It’s something I’ve wondered about for a while this season. Melanson has shown he brings an edge and seems to be a better fit for the fourth-line grinder role that Kartye has occupied for much of his NHL career to date.
Here’s hoping nobody claims Kartye.
Takeaway 3: Ryan Lindgren injured
Former Kraken forward Colin Blackwell had a rough start to the night, getting dropped like a bad habit while trying to lay a check on the much bigger Jamie Oleksiak in the opening minutes.
On his next shift, Ryan Lindgren caught him with a thunderous hit that sent both players crashing hard to the ice.
Goodness, gracious. Tough start to this game for Colin Blackwell.
In the end, though, it was Lindgren who got the worst of the collision.
Blackwell briefly went down the tunnel but returned and finished the game. Lindgren stayed on the bench momentarily before heading to the locker room and did not return.
Replay showed Lindgren’s knee smashing hard into the ice, and the medical staff was working on his leg on the bench before he exited. If I had to guess, that’s likely the injury area.
Lindgren’s exit put things into flux for the Kraken, who had to roll five defensemen for almost the entire game after the injury occurred on Lindgren’s second shift of the game.
He is a tough customer, so it takes a lot to knock him out of a game. That suggests he could miss some time, which would open the door for Cale Fleury or Josh Mahura to re-enter the lineup.
It would be unfortunate if the Kraken were to lose Kartye via waiver claim and then have to place Lindgren on IR—an injury that, had it happened 24 hours earlier, might have eliminated the need to expose Kartye in the first place.
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The Kraken wrap up the second leg of their back-to-back Thursday in St. Louis. That might be a good opportunity to flush this one quickly.
Darren Brown
Darren Brown is the Chief Content Officer at soundofhockey.com and the host of the Sound Of Hockey Podcast. He is a member of the PHWA and is also usually SOH’s Twitter intern (but please pretend you don’t know that). Follow him @DarrenFunBrown and @sound_hockey or email darren@soundofhockey.com.
The Seattle Kraken emerge from the Olympic break in a welcome position, sitting third in the Pacific Division and very much in the playoff picture. The roster is essentially healthy, with Ben Meyers and Berkly Catton expected to come off injured reserve and give this team the full depth chart it envisioned back in October.
But with the trade deadline looming, four key players are pending unrestricted free agents, and general manager Jason Botterill will soon have to decide whether to extend them, trade them, or keep them for the stretch run with no guarantee any will re-sign. With the final playoff push about to take hold, we asked our writers to take stock of where the Kraken stand and where they might be headed next.
What do you think is the single biggest reason the Kraken are in a playoff spot right now?
John: It’s hard to pinpoint one specific thing the team is doing right because it’s been different things at different parts of the season. But if I have to pick one, it’s the defensive structure. The structure Lane Lambert has brought to this team was critical in accumulating points early in the season and built the foundation for everything that’s followed. The Kraken were 24th in the league last season in goals against per game, and they’re currently sitting ninth, allowing 2.88 goals per game.
Curtis: I agree with goal suppression being the biggest single reason, John, but will take it in a slightly different direction and highlight the goaltending. According to Evolving Hockey, the Kraken saved 7.6 goals above expected last season, which equates to about .1 goals per game. This year the total is 45.8 goals above expected in 56 games, equating to about .8 goals per game. Other sources are directionally similar. The Kraken are in the fight most nights because their goalies are usually saving a tally against more than they “should” and did last year.
Blaiz: The biggest reason the Kraken are in a playoff spot right now is their performance in the second leg of back-to-back games. Seattle is 4-3-2 in those games this season. Before their win Dec. 23, you’d have to go back to Feb. 13, 2024, for their previous back-to-back victory. Last season, they went 0-12-0 in the second leg and earned zero points.
Those nine games have produced 10 points. Without them, the Kraken would sit at 53 points and be seven points out of a playoff spot. Joey Daccord has been a major part of that turnaround, earning all 10 points while starting seven of the nine “second-leg” games. Matt Murray made the other two starts, and Philipp Grubauer has not started in the second of a back-to-back.
Darren: I got to read what all of you wrote for this one before making my own decision, and I think you’re all winners. All these pieces have certainly been big contributors to the team’s success.
If I can just add two quick pieces, Grubauer’s turnaround this season has been something I did not see coming and has made it so that the team has a chance to win regardless of who is in net, who they’re playing, and what the wacky schedule has brought. Also, there seems to be a real buy-in from the team on what Lambert is selling. He often says that if they play to their systems, they’ll have a chance every night, and it does seem the players believe that.
What’s the biggest surprise of the season — good or bad?
Curtis: I’ll build off my previous answer and also highlight the play of Grubauer in particular. Joey Daccord has been a relatively consistent positive across the last two seasons (.36 goals above expected per game last season according to Evolving Hockey; .50 goals above expected per game this year). But it is Grubauer who flipped from a large net negative in 2024-25 (-.49 goals above expected per game) to a dominant positive in 2025-26 (1.07 goals above expected per game).
Similarly, Hockeyviz had Grubauer at -.73 goals above expected per game in 2024-25 and has him .5 goals save above expected per game this season. His raw save percentage numbers jumped up from his career-low .875 rate to a .916 mark–which more closely resembles the numbers he was posting before joining the Kraken.
Grubauer’s rebound from contract liability (he cleared waivers last season and went to the Coachella Valley Firebirds) to arguably the team MVP so far is my biggest surprise.
Darren: Bingo, Curtis.
Blaiz: I agree with Curtis’ answer on Grubauer, so I will go with the biggest surprise on the bad side: letting Morgan Geekie walk almost three seasons ago has come back to bite Seattle in a huge way.
Since then, Geekie has scored 82 goals for Boston. Of course, he is skating on a top line with Elias Lindholm and David Pastrnak, two elite offensive talents, but even so, Geekie continues to produce. He has 32 goals this season and leads the entire NHL in goals per 60 (G/60) at 1.967. For context, Jared McCann is the closest Kraken skater over that same span with 67 goals and a 1.225 G/60 rate. The Kraken will continue to search for scoring, but they had Geekie in the system and let him go for nothing.
John: I think Grubauer surprised us all, but I’ll take a different path on this one. I don’t know if I was overly optimistic about the acquisition, but I was surprised by how bad the Mason Marchment fit was with the Kraken. I expected a goal-scoring Yanni Gourde type, but it just flat-out didn’t work. It wasn’t really consequential, but it was still shocking to see. Credit to the Kraken for cutting bait and shipping him off to Columbus.
Darren: How about the rise of some of the youngsters in the Kraken system? I guess we shouldn’t be that surprised, but seeing homegrown talent begin to make up a significant portion of the NHL roster is encouraging. Joining the likes of roster mainstays Matty Beniers, Shane Wright, and Ryker Evans have been a few new faces emerging as “regulars.” Ryan Winterton has played a huge role and just signed a new two-year contract, Jacob Melanson has fit in beautifully on the fourth line and helped turn the team around when it was struggling, and Berkly Catton has proven himself NHL ready as a true rookie who we thought could be returned to the WHL this season.
That’s exciting stuff for a team that is very much in the playoff hunt now.
Who is your Kraken MVP at the break, and why?
Blaiz: Captain Jordan Eberle is my MVP at the break. Eberle is the only Kraken player to reach 20 goals so far this season. He leads the team in both goals (20) and points (38), all after returning from a pelvis injury that ended his 2024-25 season. At 35 years of age, he is on pace for 30 goals, a mark he has never reached in his career. His previous career high was 28 goals in his rookie season. With him set to become an unrestricted free agent after this season, if he chose to chase a Cup elsewhere, I would understand. But his leadership and production still make a strong case to bring the captain back for another season or two.
John: I’m going to go with Matty Beniers here. He’s been playing such a strong two-way game all season, which has really contributed to the team’s success defensively, and in January he really started to chip in offensively.
Darren: I’m with you, John. I still want Beniers to contribute more offensively–he’s on pace for about 20 goals again this season–but at 23 years old, he looks like a proper NHL veteran.
Curtis: I tipped my hand on my team MVP in my previous answer. It’s Grubauer for me.
Which area of the roster still concerns you the most heading into the stretch run?
Darren: The biggest problem with the roster is the same issue that has dragged it down since Day 1: a lack of elite offensive talent. Catton could become this one day, but as of now, there’s still no gamebreaker in Seattle. It would be great to see the Kraken add another player who can score at Jared McCann levels of frequency now, then let some of the youngsters mature into (hopefully) star players in a couple years.
John: The penalty kill. It started the season unlucky, then turned flat-out awful, only to eventually rebound a bit before slipping again right before the Olympic break. I feel like having an average penalty kill over the remaining games would do wonders in helping Seattle lock in that playoff position.
Curtis: I agree with Darren to some degree; it’s the goal scoring, particularly at even strength. For much of the season, the team has not created enough shot quality to sustain success, only to be buoyed by puck luck, power-play goals, and strong goaltending. If this playoff run dies out over the last 26 games, it will likely be because the offense can’t get them over the line.
Blaiz: The three-headed goalie situation does not necessarily concern me, but it is the area I think about most because it takes up a roster spot.
Matt Murray has been practicing with the team for a while but has not been activated off injured reserve. When he is activated, someone will need to be sent down to Coachella Valley to make room. That creates a short-term squeeze, and with five games before the March 6 trade deadline, the Kraken need every point they can get. After the deadline, the roster limit is lifted, which will remove this concern.
If you were Jason Botterill, how would you approach the trade deadline?
John: This team isn’t a serious Cup contender, but they absolutely want to make the playoffs, so their approach to the trade deadline is going to be tricky. I’d be listening to offers that make the Kraken better over the next few years, not necessarily just better this season. There’s a scenario where I’d trade one of the middle-six forwards on an expiring contract and backfill that spot with Jacob Melanson and/or Logan Morrison.
Curtis: I’d endeavor to use the deadline as leverage to extend a couple veteran forwards, preferably Jaden Schwartz and Jordan Eberle on two-year deals. I’d keep the phone lines open on big game (Robert Thomas? Jordan Kyrou? Jason Robertson? Filip Forsberg?) in case a team gets motivated to deal. I’d move any unsigned, pending UFA forwards (Schwartz, Eberle, or Eeli Tolvanen) or defenseman Jamie Oleksiak if a first-round pick (or comparable value) is offered. I suspect this approach would generate an Oleksiak deal, but nothing else. I’d live with the downgrade defensively for the stretch run.
Blaiz: The Kraken should take a swing at a scoring forward if a true point-per-game caliber player becomes available, like the players Curtis mentioned. Jason Botterill should listen to every offer. But he should avoid rentals that only help this season. If a near point-per-game player is available and can either be extended or is already under contract for two or three more years, that is the type of move I would make. It all comes down to the price. The deal Los Angeles just got for Artemi Panarin is the type I would make in a heartbeat.
Darren: I think you’re all very smart. The only thing I’m not particularly keen on from the above answers is Curtis’s willingness to move a player for a first-round pick. I’d like to take a break from trading useful players for draft capital for a while. I would keep the veteran UFA’s for a playoff push, even if it means letting them walk this summer.
Now talking out of the other side of my mouth, Oleksiak for a first isn’t a terrible deal, though.
Wait, no, I’m keeping Oleksiak for the playoff run. There. That’s my answer. No trades for draft picks.
What’s one bold prediction for the Kraken in the final third of the season?
Curtis: The scoring will start to come for Berkly Catton. I’ll say seven goals and 11 assists for him in the team’s last 26 games despite relatively modest ice time and no significant power-play usage.
Blaiz: Shane Wright will break the 20-goal mark. He started the season slow, but in the final week before the break he scored four goals to push his total to 11. He needs nine more over the final 26 games. If he stays confident and continues to get opportunities, I would not be surprised to see him reach that milestone.
Darren: The Kraken will finally swing a relatively big trade for a scoring winger. I think the reporting out there that they were aggressively pursuing Panarin tells us this is the kind of player they’re seeking and are willing to pay to make it happen.
John: You want bold? How about the Kraken finishing second in the Pacific. They’re playing their best hockey of the season, and they’re finally healthy. Change my mind.
Is this a playoff team?
Blaiz: 100% Yes. Will they be a Stanley Cup favorite? No. But I do not think teams will enjoy matching up with them in the first round. The Kraken are comfortable playing tight, low-scoring games. As I mentioned in the March update of Strive for 95, they have played their best hockey against the top of the league, posting a .611 points percentage. I believe they have what it takes to return to the postseason, and I will go a step further and say they will put any first-round opponent on upset alert.
John: Yes. I think their biggest threat to taking their playoff spot is the Los Angeles Kings and even though they traded for Artemi Panarin right before the Olympic break, they lost Kevin Fiala due to a broken leg sustained in the Olympics.
Curtis: I don’t love the chances of several of Seattle’s competitors, as you point out, but in isolation this still doesn’t feel like a playoff-caliber team to me. There’s enough of the season left for water to find its level, so I’ll say “no,” but it’s very close. Matty Beniers’ continued ability to drive an effective scoring line may be the x-factor. They were hot before the break. Will they come back the same way? Regardless, it should be an intriguing stretch run. And that is what we wanted coming into the season.
Darren: I was supposed to answer this one before Curtis, but I can’t let us end this Roundtable with a “no playoffs” response. I’ve covered this team closely since its inception, and I can tell you the vibes in the dressing room feel a lot more like the playoff vibes we felt in 2022-23 than the “we’re out of it” vibes of the other seasons. The team believes they’re a playoff team, and I believe they’re a playoff team.
The dust has settled on a thrilling Olympic competition, in which both the Women’s and Men’s USA ice hockey teams came away with gold medals after respective 2-1 overtime victories against Canada. The women trailed Canada 1-0 late in the gold medal game when Hilary Knight, captain of both Team USA and the Seattle Torrent, forced overtime with a redirection with 2:04 remaining. Defenseman Megan Keller finished the job in overtime and secured gold for Team USA.
On the men’s side, goaltender Connor Hellebuyck stood on his head and stole the game for Team USA. After Jack Hughes had a tooth knocked out by a high stick, he scored the winner in overtime on a great play and pass from Zach Werenski.
Additionally, Kaapo Kakko and Eeli Tolvanen will bring back bronze medals after defeating Slovakia 6-1 in Finland’s final game of the tournament. Congrats to all the Olympic athletes.
Now the focus shifts back to the NHL. Most teams, minus the Olympians, returned to practice Feb. 16 and will resume regular-season play Feb. 25. The Seattle Kraken, who find themselves in third place in the Pacific Division, start with a back-to-back Wednesday in Dallas and Thursday in St. Louis.
January recap
With the Olympic break, February was split. The games on Feb. 3 and 4 are included in the January update. The three games from Feb. 25 through 28 will be counted as part of March.
The Kraken needed to put together a big month in January to get back into the playoff mix, and that is exactly what they did. With a big win in Los Angeles to close out pre-Olympic play on Feb. 4, Seattle opened a three-point buffer over the Kings, who are just outside the playoff cutline.
The Kraken hold an 11-6-2 record in 2026, putting them back on pace for 95 points. The 24 standings points earned are first in the Pacific over that span. Joey Daccord and Philipp Grubauer split starts as evenly as possible over a 19-game stretch, with Daccord starting nine and Grubauer 10. Each earned 12 standings points in their starts.
Seattle also found a scoring touch, averaging 3.53 goals per game during the month. At that rate, they would rank third in the NHL behind Colorado at 3.84 and Tampa Bay at 3.55. Even with the surge, the Kraken sit 23rd overall at 2.88 goals per game.
With the standings so bunched up, 16 of the 19 games were against the Bubble tier. Seattle played almost every other night, with two instances of two days off and four back-to-back sets. The condensed schedule created a playoff-like pace and rhythm in which the Kraken excelled.
Updated tiers
A gap is starting to open between playoff and non-playoff teams, though several remain within striking distance.
Bolded teams are teams the Kraken play this month. ‘x2’ indicates the Kraken face that team twice. Up and down arrows show teams that moved between tiers.
Notes on tier movement
Playoff Bound tier
The group remains the same, but several teams are knocking on the door. Montreal, Detroit, and Pittsburgh are all pushing, with Pittsburgh posting a surprising 12-3-3 record in 2026. Any of those could move up next month. On the flip side, Colorado still leads the Presidents’ Trophy race, but its 7-7-2 record in 2026 ranks 24th over that stretch. Minnesota is another team to watch. The Wild are winning, but many of those victories came in overtime or shootout. In 2026, they have only four regulation wins.
Bubble tier
The separation is widening. Florida, Philadelphia, Nashville, and San Jose sit just above the Tankers tier. There is a noticeable range within this tier, which is reflected in the spacing.
Tankers tier
Four teams join this tier: New Jersey, the New York Rangers, St. Louis, and Calgary. All posted losing records in 2026 and sit at least 11 points out of a wild-card spot.
March and late-February games
As mentioned earlier, the March breakdown includes the three games on Feb. 25, 26, and 28. After the Kraken jump right back into the thick of it with a back-to-back against the Stars and Blues, they have one other back-to-back in March, traveling to Vancouver on March 14 before returning home to face Florida on March 15.
From Feb. 25 through March 31, Seattle will travel 10,472 miles. With 17 games, that averages 616 miles per game, and the stretch includes the longest road trip of the season at six games. Fortunately, the Kraken get their second six-game homestand, followed by a quick trip to Vancouver and then two more home games. That means eight of nine games from Feb. 28 through March 17 are at Climate Pledge Arena, with the lone road game a short hop north.
The NHL trade deadline is March 6. It remains unclear whether Seattle will buy, sell, or stand pat. General manager Jason Botterill took a swing at Artemi Panarin, though it did not materialize. Botterill has shown he is willing to be aggressive if the right deal emerges. VP and assistant general manager Alexandra Mandrycky was recently asked at a season ticket holders event about the Kraken’s trade deadline strategy. She said the team is always looking to improve, whether through a short-term addition or by adding future assets, and that the Kraken will survey the market and only make a move if it improves the team.
Updated target percentages
With teams moving from the Bubble to Tankers tiers, the required points percentages have shifted slightly. Here are the updated monthly targets.
Tier targets
Playoff Bound tier
This tier presents a challenge with five games in the month. Seattle will face Dallas, Carolina and Colorado once, and Tampa Bay twice. Tampa Bay entered the break at 14-1-1 in 2026, while Carolina sits at 12-3-3. The good news is Seattle owns a .611 points percentage against this tier this season, their best mark against any tier. Target: five points out of 10.
Bubble tier
There are eight games against this tier. Only two of those teams hold playoff spots coming out of the break. Seattle will face Ottawa, Columbus, and Buffalo once, and Florida and Nashville twice. Target: 10 points out of 16.
Tankers tier
With St. Louis joining this tier, Seattle has four games here. They will play St. Louis and Vancouver twice each, including two back-to-backs. The Kraken are 3-4-1 against this tier this season for a .438 points percentage, their worst mark against any tier. These are must-have games, especially given their struggles against this tier. Seattle must be ready at puck drop and set the tone early against these teams. Target: six points out of eight.
Wrapping up
The Kraken opened calendar year 2026 in strong fashion and must keep rolling. They sit one point behind Edmonton with two games in hand. Anaheim and Los Angeles remain close, so Seattle cannot afford a slide.
Dallas is first on Feb. 25. The Stars had seven players at the Olympics, which could create early rust for that team as a whole. They also have Jason Robertson, a notable Team USA snub, who will look to add to his 32 goals.
If you have comments or questions, feel free to leave them below.
Blaiz Grubic
Blaiz Grubic is a contributor at Sound Of Hockey. A passionate hockey fan and player for over 30 years, Blaiz grew up in the Pacific Northwest and is an alumni of Washington State University (Go Cougs!). When he’s not playing, watching, or writing about hockey, he enjoys quality time with his wife and daughter or getting out on a golf course for a quick round. Follow @blaizg on BlueSky or X.
It’s been a nice break, but the Seattle Kraken have wrapped up a week of practice and are flying to Dallas on Monday to prepare for their first game since a critical 4-2 win over the Los Angeles Kings on Feb. 4. That victory put Seattle into third place in the Pacific Division heading into the break. Now, with the team marching toward a return to game action at the Stars on Wednesday, our coverage here at Sound Of Hockey is ramping back up as well.
The last week had almost “mini training camp” vibes, as Seattle’s players came back together at Kraken Community Iceplex and worked their way back toward game shape after nearly three weeks off. Those vibes, by the way, are very good, with the team in a playoff position and saying all the right things about being ready to compete for Seattle’s second postseason berth in franchise history.
Meanwhile, overseas, Philipp Grubauer wrapped up his memorable experience representing Team Germany, Kaapo Kakko and Eeli Tolvanen won bronze with Finland, and Team USA captured gold in one of the greatest hockey games in recent memory with a thrilling 2-1 overtime win against Canada early Sunday morning.
In this Kraken Notebook, we get player reactions to the Olympics, what it’s like for them to get back together after the hiatus, and much more.
Enjoy.
Reaction to Team USA gold
On Sunday, former Team USA Olympian Matty Beniers was all smiles, happily rubbing the first American men’s hockey gold medal since 1980 in the faces of his Canadian teammates. Beniers was especially braggadocious toward linemate Jordan Eberle, who had been taunting him the day prior and who “loves Canada more than any guy in here,” according to Beniers.
The 2-1 American win definitely captured the attention of Kraken players who didn’t participate in the tournament, despite its early 5 a.m. local start time.
“I think it’s super, super important, super good for the game of hockey in the US,” Beniers said. “I grew up in a place where hockey is pretty big, right? Obviously, in Boston, it’s pretty well known, but it’s cool being in a spot like Seattle where it’s still growing and kind of young to this city. And I think that— I’m sure a lot of young hockey players are watching that game like I did when I was younger, just thinking about, Maybe that could be me someday. So, it’s huge.”
Coach Lane Lambert, who has dual citizenship between the U.S. and Canada, called it a “great game” and “one of the faster games I’ve seen.”
“Two great teams going at it,” Lambert said. “It ended in overtime, obviously, just to add to the excitement. I’m not a fan of 3-on-3 in a gold medal game, to be honest with you, but it was an awesome hockey game.”
Beniers also said he cashed in on some bets with teammates, but when I asked him what he won, he said, “Pride,” with a big smile on his face.
Goalie Philipp Grubauer, meanwhile, didn’t take the bait when asked who he was rooting for in the gold medal game. “I hope both teams had fun,” he said with a laugh.
Philipp Grubauer returns
Grubauer returned to Kraken practice after proudly representing Team Germany in Milan, where he posted a 2-2-0 record with a 2.79 goals-against average and a .912 save percentage. He, too, had a strong reaction to the USA/Canada classic.
“Obviously, two incredible teams going at it, could have gone one way or another,” Grubauer said. “[Connor] Hellebuyck, incredible game. Canada had a couple great chances on wide-open nets they miss. But overall, it was an unbelievable game to watch as a spectator.”
Grubauer clearly had a special experience playing in the Olympics in front of family and friends who made the relatively short trip from Germany to northern Italy.
“Since we were kids, we only got to see the Olympics. We only got to see the best players on TV during the Olympics,” Grubauer said. “We didn’t really have NHL highlights, and we didn’t see NHL games in Germany. So the Olympics—it didn’t matter if it was Summer Olympics or Winter Olympics—was always on 24/7. Watching my idols, Olaf Kolzig, Robert Müller play, and a couple other goalies playing those games… Obviously, now stepping on the ice and representing Germany myself. Like I said, it was a huge honor, and I haven’t really thought or soaked it in too much. I’m sure it’s going to come later down the road.”
One interesting detail: Grubauer wore No. 30 for Team Germany instead of the 31 he sports in the NHL. When he first played for the German national team, somebody else had 31, so he took 30 instead. He’s fuzzy on the details, but he believes he pitched a shutout in a big early game against Russia wearing 30 and decided to stick with the number when representing his country.
“I got it, played well, just superstitious. So I kept it, never changed it, and I think that was it.”
Speaking of superstition, most NHL goalies prefer white pads, believing dark gear highlights holes for shooters. Grubauer has worn black gear with the Kraken’s “Abyss” jerseys and also had a black setup for Germany at the Olympics. On Sunday, he was breaking in a new deep sea blue set, which could become his default going forward.
On closer inspection, these are DEEP SEA BLUE PADS!
“I think the dark—the black set that we have here—look amazing. The pads I made for Team Germany, I think, looked amazing. So it’s nice to have darker gear, switching it up… It’s nice to see, too. Once you have your hands out, you can see your hands and where you stand a little bit better with darker gear.”
A fun break, but Kraken ready to get back at it
Kraken players who weren’t in the Olympics scattered during the hiatus. Beniers joined a couple teammates in Anguilla. Joey Daccord split time between Arizona and Florida. Jaden Schwartz went to Japan (as discussed in his interview on this week’s Sound Of Hockey Podcast). Ryan Winterton, Cale Fleury, Jacob Melanson, and Ben Meyers took a group trip to Cabo San Lucas.
“It was a pretty nice getaway,” Winterton said. “Time to relax, do some golfing. We did a couple rounds of golf, which was great, and then we went on the boat a couple days, and then just kind of laid low, got some sun.”
Interestingly, several players admitted the break wasn’t quite as welcome as you might expect. The Kraken were playing good hockey when the schedule paused, so although the fun in the sun was nice, some players would have liked to keep things rolling.
“I felt like I was getting my confidence going and getting the hang of every night, just playing,” Winterton said. “Maybe I would have liked, like, a week off, which I guess we had, but maybe a little less time would be better for me. But at the same time, letting the body heal up and get some sun, get some fresh air, kind of let your body and your mind get loose of hockey was beneficial.
“But I think for a young guy, we can kind of play every night and somewhat feel fine. So if it was up to me, I probably would have loved to keep playing, but obviously watching the Olympics is pretty cool too.”
What’s permeating the room, though, is that this team sounds ready for a playoff push. They took two of three on their final road trip before the break, jumping into third place in the Pacific Division, and they appear relatively healthy, with Meyers and Berkly Catton appearing ready to return from injured reserve.
“I think we’ll be a playoff team this year,” Winterton said. “We’ve just got to keep buying into what the coaches are saying and play every night like we have been and like we need the two points, which we do every night.”
Roster crunch and trade deadline incoming
Throughout the week, the lines at practice have looked like this:
Jared McCann // Matty Beniers // Jordan Eberle Berkly Catton // Chandler Stephenson // Freddy Gaudreau Ryan Winterton // Shane Wright // Jaden Schwartz Tye Kartye // Ben Meyers // Jacob Melanson
Vince Dunn // Adam Larsson Jamie Oleksiak // Brandon Montour Ryan Lindgren // Ryker Evans Josh Mahura // Cale Fleury
Two notable absences: Finnish bronze medalists Kaapo Kakko and Eeli Tolvanen have yet to rejoin the team. Assuming they didn’t play through injuries in Italy, they’ll return soon, as will Catton and (presumably) Meyers.
Having everyone back (except Matt Murray, who continues to practice, but we’re guessing will remain on IR until the trade deadline) is a good problem to have—but it creates a roster crunch.
The players listed above, plus Tolvanen, Kakko, Grubauer, and Daccord, would put Seattle at 24 players—one over the 23-man limit. The last time this happened, Melanson was sent to Coachella Valley. He, Wright, and Winterton are the only players who can go to the AHL without waivers.
“We’re going to have, potentially, depending on… how the trend goes [with Meyers and Catton] and how ready they are, I would say there’s probably going to be some decisions that have to be made at some point,” Lambert said.
Of course, the NHL Trade Deadline is also fast approaching at 12 p.m. Pacific on Friday, March 6. Seattle has five games between now and then. Could a move clear the logjam?
Sound Of Hockey’s John Barr published an article Monday about where the Kraken likely fit as buyers or sellers. A relatively quiet deadline seems likely—but I also wouldn’t be surprised to see Seattle take a swing at a scoring winger, especially considering the widely reported interest in Artemi Panarin before he landed with the LA Kings prior to the break.
The Kraken are taking a travel day Monday and will practice Tuesday in Dallas before a back-to-back Wednesday and Thursday in Dallas and St. Louis.
The stretch run is here!
Darren Brown
Darren Brown is the Chief Content Officer at soundofhockey.com and the host of the Sound Of Hockey Podcast. He is a member of the PHWA and is also usually SOH’s Twitter intern (but please pretend you don’t know that). Follow him @DarrenFunBrown and @sound_hockey or email darren@soundofhockey.com.
The Olympic break roster freeze is officially over, and the NHL has snapped back into trade deadline mode. Between now and March 6, every front office will be asking the same question: Who are we, really? And for the Kraken, a team that has spent most of the season hovering around the playoff bubble, the answer isn’t as straightforward as it is for others.
That’s what makes this deadline so compelling. Seattle isn’t locked into any one lane. Depending on the plan, they can justify almost any approach, with some paths more realistic than others. And because the conversation usually collapses into the oversimplified “buy or sell,” it’s worth laying out the full menu of strategies NHL teams actually use this time of year. Here’s what’s on the table, with real examples and a little Kraken-specific seasoning.
The big swing
This is for teams that want to push their chips in and win a Stanley Cup now. This category includes both the classic “full buyer” approach and the rare, seismic deadline blockbuster that shakes the league.
Examples:
Dallas Stars (2025):Acquired Mikko Rantanen from the Hurricanes for Logan Stankoven, two first-round picks, and two third-round picks. Result: Lost in the Conference Finals to the Oilers.
Vegas Golden Knights (2024): Added Tomas Hertl and Noah Hanifin for two firsts, a third, and depth prospects. Lost in the first round, but both players remain long-term pieces.
Tampa Bay Lightning (2023): Acquired Tanner Jeannot from Nashville for Cal Foote and five draft picks. Result: Lost in the first round to Toronto.
Toronto Maple Leafs (2023): Added Erik Gustafsson, Jake McCabe, Sam Lafferty, Ryan O’Reilly, and Noel Acciari across three trades for Rasmus Sandin and multiple picks. Won a round, then fell to Florida.
Kraken angle: Very unlikely. Seattle hasn’t reached the “push the chips in” phase of the franchise. A blockbuster only makes sense if it involves a player with several years of term beyond 2025–26, and that might be a deal they try to swing over the summer.
Targeted buyer
This is the “we’re good, but let’s not tweak too much” approach. You’re improving the roster without lighting your future on fire. Usually there’s a specific role or depth need, but these moves don’t get the headlines of a big swing.
Examples:
Winnipeg Jets (2025): Added Brandon Tanev and Luke Schenn for second-round picks. Won a round, then lost to Dallas.
Florida Panthers (2024): Acquired Vladimir Tarasenko for a third and a fourth. Won the Stanley Cup.
Dallas Stars (2023): Added Max Domi and Evgenii Dadonov for a second and Denis Gurianov. Reached the Conference Finals.
Kraken angle: Unlikely. With the team finally healthy, the Kraken have an abundance of depth, which makes this scenario less likely. Their needs lean more toward high-end talent, and that usually requires significant assets.
Stay the course
Sometimes the best move is no move. Sometimes the best move is getting a key player back from injury. Sometimes the best move is solving your depth issues with internal resources. Plenty of teams have taken this path and lived to tell the tale.
Examples:
Montreal Canadiens (2025): Did nothing at the deadline, made the playoffs, then lost to Washington in Round 1.
Boston Bruins (2024): Made two small depth trades, finished second in the Atlantic, beat Toronto, then lost to Florida.
Seattle Kraken (2023): Stood pat, then beat Colorado in seven games before falling to Dallas in seven.
Kraken angle: Likely. It’s not exciting, but it’s probably the most likely scenario. The Kraken are in a playoff spot and playing their best hockey of the season, but it’s hard to argue they’re a true Cup contender. Keeping their expiring contracts may simply be the strategy.
Soft seller
You’re not rebuilding, but you recognize the long odds of contending for the Cup. You have players on expiring contracts who could fetch a nice return, and you’re willing to listen.
Examples:
Washington Capitals (2024): Shed Evgeny Kuznetsov, Joel Edmundson, and Anthony Mantha while seven points out of a playoff spot. Still made the playoffs, then were swept by the Rangers. Playing it conservative enabled them for a busy summer of retooling by acquiring Pierre-Luc Dubois, Andrew Mangiapane, Logan Thompson, and Jakob Chychrun in four different trades.
Pittsburgh Penguins (2024): Moved Jake Guentzel and little else. Despite calls to tear it down, the core stayed intact. Now, the Penguins are surprisingly back in a playoff spot with that same core.
Kraken angle: Possible. The Kraken have four players on expiring contracts: Jaden Schwartz, Jordan Eberle, Eeli Tolvanen, and Jamie Oleksiak. All have contributed, but the Kraken also have enough depth to backfill if another team makes an offer they can’t refuse. With Ben Meyers and Berkly Catton set to return from injured reserve, a trade could solve a roster crunch while bringing back a meaningful asset. It also seems like current Coachella Valley Firebirds Logan Morrison and Jani Nyman could help backfill any forward departures, while Seattle is carrying two extra defensemen in Cale Fleury and Josh Mahura.
Tear it down
A tear it down approach isn’t really a trade deadline strategy — it’s a multi-year plan for a team with little to no path to competitiveness. Full rebuilds are less common now, since there’s no guarantee they work. But a major deadline offload can signal the start (or continuation) of one.
Example:
Boston Bruins (2025): On the outside of the playoff picture, they moved Brad Marchand, Brandon Carlo, Charlie Coyle, Justin Brazeau, and Trent Frederic. One year later, they’re holding down the last wild card spot with a very different roster.
Kraken angle: Very unlikely. Seattle has a healthy amount of young talent in the NHL and in the pipeline, plus plenty of early-round picks in the coming drafts. A major teardown at the deadline makes little sense.
What should the Kraken do?
With the Kraken in the playoff hunt and several players on expiring contracts, they have multiple paths available. It’s unlikely they’ll be a major player at the deadline, but if an opportunity arises to add an impact player with term, they’ll be in the mix. They also have pieces that could help any playoff team, along with prospects and picks that rebuilding clubs covet.
They have options, but staying relatively quiet might be the most realistic outcome.
So what’s your take? If you were Seattle Kraken general manager Jason Botterill, which lane would you choose, and how bold would you be as the deadline approaches?
Welcome to “Down on the Farm,” your weekly Seattle Kraken prospects update. This week, we’ll have an update on the happenings around the system, including a player facing league discipline and one more Olympics update. After that, we’ll have additional Kraken prospect news, video, and data updates, the Sound Of Hockey Prospect of the Week, and a preview of the week ahead, as always.
If you have a Seattle Kraken prospect–related question you’d like to see featured in a future column or answered in our next next mailbag (next week?), drop us a note below or on X or BlueSky at @deepseahockey or @sound_hockey.
Goyette suspended for violation of PED policy
The Seattle Kraken announced this week that Kraken forward prospect David Goyette had been suspended 20 games for a violation of the American Hockey League–Pro Hockey Players Association Performance Enhancing Substance Program. Goyette, 21, has three goals and seven assists in 47 AHL games this season. In his final game before the suspension was announced, he had perhaps his most impressive offensive play of the season.
“We fully support the Performance Enhancing Substance Program and hope this was a learning experience for David,” Kraken GM Jason Botterill said in a statement.
David Goyette addressed the suspension in a statement too, saying, “I did not knowingly or intentionally use any prohibited substance, and I have never tried to gain an unfair advantage. However, I understand I am responsible for what enters my body, and I accept the league’s decision. I’m sorry to my teammates, the organization, and the fans.
“I’ll work with the program to determine how this happened and will be fully prepared to return when my suspension ends.”
Goyette missed his first game due to the suspension on Wednesday, Feb. 18. He will be eligible to return to the Firebirds lineup on April 10, when the Firebirds host the Ontario Reign. The team will have only five regular-season games remaining at that point, so it remains to be seen what role, if any, Goyette will be able to carve out at that time. The 2022 second-round pick has one season remaining on his entry-level contract.
Notes on three Kraken prospects
Oscar Fisker Mølgaard | F | Denmark (Olympics)
Team Denmark fell short of the medal rounds but notched a win over Latvia in its four games. Oscar Fisker Mølgaard had a goal and two assists in those four contests. His three points were tied for second on the team. It was yet another strong international showing for Mølgaard.
Alexis Bernier | D | Chicoutimi Saguenéens (QMJHL)
Bernier got a late start to his season due to offseason ACL reconstruction surgery, but he has navigated his return successfully, playing in eight straight games for the Chicoutimi Saguenéens. His season hit another gear this past week when he recorded not just his first goal of the season but his first three goals. With an assist, too, in three games, Bernier is your Sound Of Hockey Prospect of the Week.
Nyman keeps piling up goals at the AHL level, with two more in three Firebirds games this week. His .65 goals per game are second in the AHL behind only Isak Rosen, who is about a year older than Nyman. If the objective was for Nyman to recapture his scoring mentality with an eye toward grabbing the next available top-nine NHL role, he is doing everything he can.
Kraken prospects data update
Zaccharya Wisdom had two goals and two assists in two games last week. His four points pushed his season total to 24, which is a new NCAA career high for Wisdom.
Jake O’Brien’s seven points last week brought his season total to 69 in 41 games. He is third in the entire CHL in points per game (among those with at least 10 games played), behind only Cole Beaudoin and Tij Iginla, both of whom are a year older than O’Brien.
Semyon Vyazovoi continues to earn the lion’s share of the starts for his team and maintain his top-five save-percentage position in the KHL. There’s no doubt in my mind he’s ready for the North American challenge.
Kim Saarinen, 19, has a .917 save percentage on the season, which is the second-best mark in Liiga. Perhaps more impressively, he is 15 points clear of the next-best save percentage by any goalie age 22 or younger (Matthieu Herpin, .902).
Sound Of Hockey Prospect of the Week tracker
3: Jagger Firkus, Kim Saarinen
2: Jake O’Brien, Julius Miettinen, Nathan Villeneuve, Semyon Vyazovoi
This week’s Deep Sea Hockey Games of the Week are a couple of NCHC matchups pitting Ollie Josephson and North Dakota against Barrett Hall and St. Cloud State.
Tracking 2026 NHL Draft prospects: Malte Gustafsson
Malte Gustafsson is a smooth-skating, 6-foot-4, left-shot defenseman with a lot of high-level experience in the SHL and for the Swedish National Team. He has the potential to be a plus puck-moving defenseman, rush defender, and in-zone net-front presence, though many aspects of his game are carried by his strong athletic traits at this point. There is an easy middle-pair projection here. Gustafsson ranked No. 21 on the mid-season Big Board.
Curtis is a Sound Of Hockey contributor and member of the Kraken press corps. Curtis is an attorney by day, and he has read the NHL collective bargaining agreement and bylaws so you don’t have to. He can be found analyzing the Kraken, NHL Draft, and other hockey topics on Twitter and Bluesky @deepseahockey.
With the NHL on Olympic break, I have been looking at how tight the league’s standings have been this season. Although they have spread out a bit over the past month-plus, and there is now a buffer after the final wild card team in each conference, things are still compressed. In the Western Conference, that buffer is three points. In the Eastern Conference, it is four points. On Jan. 1, there was a one-point buffer in the East and no buffer in the West, where three teams were tied for the final spot.
With Olympic hockey underway in Milano, Italy, the tournament has again put a spotlight on the three-point standings model. This is the standard model used in international play, as well as in the PWHL.
Standings models explained
Here is how the three-point model works:
Three points for a regulation win.
Two points for an overtime or shootout win.
One point for an overtime or shootout loss.
Zero points for a regulation loss.
The NHL currently uses a two-point model:
Two points for any win, whether in regulation, overtime, or a shootout.
One point for a loss in overtime or a shootout.
Zero points for a regulation loss.
Standings congestion
Although there is now a small buffer between the final wild card spot and the next team, the standings remain tightly bunched.
There is a lot to digest in this chart, but it shows that 14 teams are within four points, plus or minus, of the final wild card spot in each conference during the 2025-26 season. Those 14 teams can reasonably be considered in the playoff mix.
Looking back at the previous four completed seasons, I increased the spread of points until at least 14 teams were in the mix. Over that span, the race for the final playoff spots has become tighter each year, with the current season showing the most congestion.
Overtime on the rise
One major driver of the tight standings is the number of games going beyond regulation. Of the 908 games played so far this season, 233 have ended in overtime or a shootout. That is 25.7 percent of games, the highest rate in NHL history.
Overtime formats have changed several times since being introduced in the 1983-84 season, when 5-on-5 overtime was added. In 1999-00, overtime shifted to 4-on-4, and the “loser” point was introduced. At that time, games could still end in a tie. That changed in 2005-06 with the introduction of the shootout, while 4-on-4 overtime remained.
The current format arrived in 2015-16, when the league moved to 3-on-3 overtime followed by a shootout if needed.
Should the NHL move to the three-point model?
I explored this question in January 2025. At the time, the three-point model showed only minor improvements over the NHL’s two-point system.
With overtime and shootout games continuing to rise, and standings congestion remaining high, it is worth revisiting whether the three-point model would now provide more clarity.
Teams with a red or green line in the chart would either move up or down in the standings with the introduction of the three-point system. There is some movement under the three-point model, but every team currently in a playoff position remains there. Buffalo benefits the most, while Montreal is penalized the most. That outcome aligns with how the three-point model rewards regulation wins.
At the time of writing, Montreal has 21 regulation wins, while Buffalo has 26. Montreal has also played the most overtime games in the Eastern Conference at 19. That boosts Montreal’s position under the two-point model but works against the Habs under the three-point system.
Does the three-point model reduce congestion?
Another way to evaluate the model is by looking at overall standings congestion. Moving from a two-point to a three-point system increases the total points available, so a 1.5x multiplier is used here to normalize the comparison.
Somewhat surprisingly, the three-point model shows very similar congestion in the current season. Completed seasons do show slightly larger spreads, but the difference is modest.
2024-25 data
Since the original analysis, the 2024-25 season has concluded. Below is the movement chart from that season under a three-point model.
There would have been no changes to the playoff teams, but there were shifts that could have affected draft positioning. Seattle would have finished 24th instead of 26th. If the draft lottery had played out the same way, the Kraken would have selected 10th instead of eighth.
That swing could have meant missing out on Jake O’Brien, who leads the Ontario Hockey League in points per game at 1.68.
Would a three-point model be a good choice for the NHL?
The three-point model has minimal impact on which teams make the playoffs, but it does place greater value on regulation wins. That can influence which teams earn home-ice advantage and how teams at the bottom of the standings are ordered for the draft.
Those effects are relatively small and do not resolve the current standings congestion. Over time, however, team behavior could shift simply because regulation wins would be worth three points instead of two.
One clear benefit of the three-point model is consistency. Every game awards three points, regardless of how it ends. Under the two-point system, regulation games award only two total points, while overtime and shootout games award three. That imbalance slightly inflates points percentages.
For example, under the two-point model, the Seattle Kraken hold a .562 points percentage with a 27-20-9 record.
Under the three-point model, overtime and shootout wins are tracked separately, creating a four-part record of W-OTW-OTL-L. The Kraken sit at 21-6-9-20, good for 84 points. With 56 games played and a maximum of 168 points available, Seattle would hold a .500 points percentage.
If you have questions or want to dig deeper into any of the data, drop them in the comments below.
Blaiz Grubic
Blaiz Grubic is a contributor at Sound Of Hockey. A passionate hockey fan and player for over 30 years, Blaiz grew up in the Pacific Northwest and is an alumni of Washington State University (Go Cougs!). When he’s not playing, watching, or writing about hockey, he enjoys quality time with his wife and daughter or getting out on a golf course for a quick round. Follow @blaizg on BlueSky or X.
Welcome to “Down on the Farm,” your weekly Seattle Kraken prospects update. This week, we’re going to take a look at scoring comparables for a couple Kraken prospects in the AHL, Logan Morrison and Jagger Firkus. What expectations should we be putting on these players now?
After that, we’ll have updates on Kraken prospects at the Olympics and the AHL All-Star Classic, plus other news, video, data updates, the Sound Of Hockey Prospect of the Week, and a preview of the week ahead, as always.
If you have a Seattle Kraken prospect–related question you’d like to see featured in a future column (or answered in our next mailbag), drop us a note below or on X or BlueSky at @deepseahockey or @sound_hockey.
Setting fair expectations for Logan Morrison and Jagger Firkus
In the last week, I have seen a couple of questions regarding Logan Morrison’s season in the AHL and his NHL future. Morrison is not your typical, heralded NHL prospect. He is not the biggest, fastest, or flashiest player on the ice. The six-foot center signed with the Kraken as an undrafted free agent in 2023 and spent his first couple of seasons working his way up the AHL lineup with solid, but not head-turning, statistics.
This season, at age 23, he has broken through as a scoring engine for the Firebirds, piling up 23 goals and 23 assists in 45 games. Morrison’s 46 points lead the Firebirds and are third in the AHL at the All-Star break.
Is this scoring binge a harbinger of an NHL future? Should the Kraken be thinking Morrison may earn a spot on the 2026-27 team? Or is it more consistent with a good player likely to top out as an AHL or European league scorer?
At the same time, we’re seeing a professional-career-best scoring performance from Morrison’s teammate Jagger Firkus. As the No. 35 overall pick in the 2022 draft, Firkus has garnered a higher prospect profile. Even so, the 21-year-old winger still has questions about his own future due to his slight stature. Firkus has 17 goals and 27 assists in 45 games this season. His 44 points are second on the Firebirds and seventh in the AHL.
Is this production a step forward for Firkus’s stock? Or is it just an average (expected) outcome for a player who led the CHL in scoring two seasons ago? Perhaps it’s even a slight step back since he has not yet established himself in the NHL?
Though we can and should dig in on the player evaluation specifics for Morrison and Firkus to address these questions, I thought some numbers could help us establish an informed baseline for them moving forward—and for others who might be in a similar situation in the years ahead.
Methodology and data
I gathered every AHL player season from the 2010-11 season to present in which the player was 23 years old or younger and scored at least 0.95 points per game in 40+ AHL games. (The point-per-game threshold is admittedly arbitrary and an effort to expand the sample to include Firkus, who is one point shy of a point-per-game pace.)
This approach returned a sample of 67 players and 74 total qualifying seasons. Seven players had two such seasons. For these players, I utilized the younger of the two qualifying seasons as the standard for the analysis below.
Six of the 67 players are currently playing their qualifying seasons (including Morrison and Firkus). Setting those examples aside, we have a sample of 61 players to evaluate.
For each of the 61 players, I tabulated their career statistics through the present—i.e., the Olympic break of the 2025-26 NHL season.
I then set three (again, arbitrary) thresholds when analyzing the results:
NHL Contributor: 100+ NHL games played (or 35+ games per season since the AHL season)
NHL Regular: 500+ NHL games played (or 55+ games per season since the AHL season)
Star: NHL Regular and 0.8+ points per game
Findings and limitations
As you might expect, players who achieved the production threshold at a younger age were more likely to achieve NHL careers and production. For example, of the four players to achieve the .95 points per game at 19 years old, all four passed the 100 NHL game threshold. Two are currently “NHL Contributors” (though both are still active, with the potential for more), one is an NHL Regular, and one is a Star. This is a one hundred percent “success” rate.
At the other end of the spectrum, players like Morrison who first achieved .95 points per AHL game at age 23 were markedly less certain to find future NHL success. Of the 15 qualifying AHL player seasons, two come from this season—Quinn Hutson and Morrison. Of the 13 remaining seasons, only six have surpassed the 100-game threshold to be an NHL Contributor (46 percent). Four of those (31 percent of the total sample) became NHL Regulars—Carter Verhaeghe, Jonatan Berggren, Pat Maroon, and Victor Olofsson. None have reached “Star” status—though Verhaeghe is fairly close with .74 points per game in his NHL career.
Toward the middle of the spectrum is Firkus’s age-21 group. Of the 16 qualifying seasons, again, two are from this year—Connor Geekie and Firkus. Of the 14 remaining in the sample, 10 became NHL Contributors (71 percent), and six of those are NHL Regulars (43 percent). The NHL Regular group is comprised of Matias Maccelli, Mavrik Bourque, Matt Coronato, Troy Terry, Marco Rossi, and Jean-Gabriel Pageau. None qualify as a Star, though Terry is the closest at .70 points per game.
Drawing back, there are some clear takeaways: Achieve this level of production as a 19- or 20-year-old, and the player is a near sure-fire NHL player, a better-than-even-money shot to have a lengthy career, and has even an outside chance of stardom. Achieve this production for the first time at 22 or 23, and the player has only a slim chance of achieving a lengthy NHL career and is no more than an even-money bet to get 100+ games at the next level. The 21-year-olds are a bit of a tipping point where you find a likelihood of playing NHL games but a 50-50 chance of achieving more.
If these likelihoods seem low or disappointing, it’s worth emphasizing that the very best players are unlikely to be captured in our sample. Many projected NHL Regulars move past the AHL level without accruing 40 games in a season—or skip that level entirely. This speaks to a built-in scouting assessment of the players in our sample (which includes Firkus and Morrison).
I did explore whether there were any other takeaways to distinguish the players who “made it” in this sample versus those who did not (e.g., height, higher-scoring players within the sample), but no other notable trends emerged.
Finally, I should note an obvious limitation: All of this assumes Firkus and Morrison can sustain their strong (.95 points per game) scoring pace for the balance of this season.
Conclusions
Firkus and Morrison are scoring at a league-leading rate in the AHL, but this does not mean they are a certainty to stick at the NHL level.
In 2023, I utilized a similar method to evaluate Firkus’ peer group when the winger was a high-scoring junior player. Comparing those results with our study here, we see that Firkus’ probability of becoming an NHL Contributor has edged forward from an even-money proposition to a likelihood. This is the type of progress you like to see from a prospect. Similarly, in that 2023 study, only 25 percent of Firkus’ peers achieved 33 points per 82 NHL games, which I used as a stand-in for a third liner. In this sample, the probability is 50 percent (7 of 14). Again, this is a significant step forward.
As for Morrison, his profile has always been a long shot. Personally, I have had him well outside Seattle’s top-10 prospects in my most recent rankings. Though an upside outcome remains unlikely, it is worth noting that solid middle-six players like Olofsson and Verhaeghe did follow a similar trajectory. After digging in on these numbers, I suspect I’ll move Morrison up a bit in my end-of-season ranking. That said, whether he accrues any notable NHL time remains a coin-flip bet at this point.
Notes on three Kraken prospects
Oscar Fisker Mølgaard | F | Denmark (Olympics)
Oscar Fisker Mølgaard is representing his native Denmark in the 2026 Winter Olympics and has scored Denmark’s only goal of the tournament to date—a tap-in off a net drive. The goalie Mølgaard bested on that play? None other than Philipp Grubauer. Mølgaard is fourth among forwards on the team in time on ice, centering the team’s second line. The players to earn more time than him? Nikolaj Ehlers and a couple of players with notable ties to Seattle—Alexander True and Oliver Bjorkstrand.
Oscar Fisker Molgaard scores his first Olympic goal for Team Denmark against Germany in Milan! @DKIshockey
Logan Morrison | F | Coachella Valley Firebirds (AHL)
Morrison had two goals and four assists and was a plus-four across two one-goal wins over Henderson this week. He is your Sound Of Hockey Prospect of the Week.
Jagger Firkus | F | Coachella Valley Firebirds (AHL)
Firkus potted a goal and added three helpers in those two Henderson games this week before packing up with teammate Tyson Jugnauth to head to the AHL All-Star Classic. Firkus’s strong week carried through to the All-Star festivities; he scored a goal in the game and won the shooting accuracy event with a perfect 4-for-4 mark.
Jani Nyman continues to pile up goals at the AHL level, with two more in two games this week.
Julius Miettinen’s plus-43 plus-minus leads all CHL forwards.
Visa Vedenpää received his first Liiga start in four weeks, and he played well, stopping 28 of 30 shots against. Unfortunately, it was not enough as Karpat fell to Nyman’s old team, Ilves, 2-1.
Kim Saarinen continued his recent stretch of strong play, posting a .924 save percentage across two starts last week. Saarinen’s .916 save percentage is second in Liiga, behind only Eetu Randelin, who is five years older than Saarinen.
Sound Of Hockey Prospect of the Week tracker
3: Jagger Firkus, Kim Saarinen
2: Jake O’Brien, Julius Miettinen, Nathan Villeneuve, Semyon Vyazovoi
This week’s Deep Sea Hockey Games of the Week (which are not included on the prospect schedule below) are Mølgaard’s Denmark games at the Olympics. Denmark takes on the United States at 12:10 p.m. PT on Saturday and then squares off against Latvia at 10:10 a.m. PT on Sunday. Depending on the results of those games, Denmark will return to play in the elimination round on Tuesday or Wednesday. All Olympics games are available to stream on Peacock.
Tracking 2026 NHL Draft prospects: Alberts Smits
Alberts Smits is perhaps the most pro-ready physical specimen among this year’s blueliners. He’s 6-foot-3 and mixes a sturdy, muscular game with creativity to break pucks out and quarterback a power play from the blue line. He brings a lot of high-level experience at 18 years old. He has logged 51 Liiga games over the last two seasons and participated in the World Juniors for Latvia over the holidays. Most impressively, he is playing against the best in the world for Latvia at the Olympics right now. He’s not a passenger, either; he has logged the third-most minutes among Latvia’s defenders. While the offense may never be high-end, he presents as a very strong bet to slot into the middle of a defensive lineup with shutdown upside.
Smits ranked No. 6 on the mid-season Big Board. Good Friend of the Pod Chris Peters has mentioned that scouts told him not to be surprised when Smits is the first defenseman drafted this year.
Curtis is a Sound Of Hockey contributor and member of the Kraken press corps. Curtis is an attorney by day, and he has read the NHL collective bargaining agreement and bylaws so you don’t have to. He can be found analyzing the Kraken, NHL Draft, and other hockey topics on Twitter and Bluesky @deepseahockey.
