I do my best to be objective and avoid being swayed too much by the emotional roller coaster that is the NHL season. When I evaluate the question of whether it is time to panic about the Seattle Kraken season to date, the logical part of me says it is not time to panic. Plenty of teams have stumbled out of the blocks, only to finish the season in a playoff spot.
But … My emotional side is freaking out right now.
We knew the first 10 games of the season represented a big challenge for Seattle, and if you would have told me coming in that the Kraken would be 1-4-1 through the first six games, I would have believed you based on the quality of opponents on the schedule. None of that really matters, though, because for as high as I was feeling after Thursday night’s game, it all came crashing down Saturday.
The Kraken looked out of sync against the Rangers, and it just felt like they could not get any sustained pressure or quality chances. Adding more fuel to the angst was the nature of how Andre Burakovsky left the ice after being boarded by Jacob Trouba. Sure enough, the Kraken announced Monday that Burakovsky had undergone a procedure to address the injury and would be out 6-8 weeks. That is a massive blow; the hockey gods seem to be kicking the team when it is already down.
Shooting percentages
Scoring and the Kraken’s low shooting percentage is the theme of the season so far. In 2022-23, they finished second in the NHL behind only the Edmonton Oilers by shooting 11.8 percent. This season they are currently sitting 30th in the league with a shooting percentage of 6.1 percent. I thought Thursday night’s explosion of seven goals against the Carolina Hurricanes might have been the catalyst for getting out of this scoring funk, but the Kraken scored just one goal on 19 shots to land at 5.3 percent Saturday, which is only slightly better than the sub-3 percent they were averaging in the first four games of the season.
Before I go any farther, let me call out that Saturday night might not be the best proxy for the season. The shot quality was extremely low in that game; according to NaturalStatTrick.com, the Kraken had only one high-danger shot on net the entire game. The previous low was five against Colorado.
There was a lot of chatter entering the season that the Seattle Kraken were due for a regression in scoring this season. That might be true, but this team has shooters, so we should not expect it to stay near the bottom of the league all season. Consider that Matty Beniers, Jordan Eberle, Eeli Tolvanen, and (before his injury) Burakovsky have not scored. All four of them have averaged over 10 percent in shooting their last five seasons. There is too much to go into on this, but I promise to do a deeper dive into the topic later this week.
It is still early. Let’s not panic… yet.
Early improvement in the face-off dot
We identified face-offs as an opportunity for improvement this offseason, and when Pierre-Edouard Bellemare was signed, we thought he should help the team improve in this area. While his own performance is bringing up the team’s statistics, Bellemare seems to be helping other players improve their face-off percentages as well.
Apart from Jordan Eberle, all players have improved their face-off percentages this season to date compared to all last season. Being that Eberle has only taken six draws, I would not worry too much about his 33 percent.
An area I was particularly concerned about coming into the season was the lack of right-shot centermen that could be deployed in the right face-off dot in the defensive zone. This dot is considered the strong side for a right-shot forward and the weak side for a left-shot forward. The Kraken’s four centers are all left shots, which would put the Kraken at a strategic disadvantage when taking face-offs in the right defensive-zone circle. (If you want to read more on this topic, check out this post from over the summer).
The data shows that the Kraken are weaker on the right defensive-zone circle, but even though they are missing the right-shot option (filled last season by Morgan Geekie) to take the right-side face-offs, they are still stronger on that right face-off dot.
It is early in the season, and some of the teams the Kraken have played this season were weaker face-off teams from last season. But even with the limited sample size, this is positive progress in this area.
Other Kraken thoughts
The Burakovsky injury is significant. I was counting on him to play a majority of the season to improve the Kraken offensively and replace the goals of Daniel Sprong.
The injury to Burakovsky, this will provide an opportunity Tye Kartye and Kailer YamamotoI I expect both of them to work up and down the lines and get more scoring opportunities with more skilled linemates. In my opinion, Yamamoto can create more offensive opportunities on the fourth line than Kartye, so I would bet Kartye starts most of the games up the lineup with Yamamoto getting occasional extra shifts outside of the fourth line.
It was fun to see Kartye score his first regular-season goal Thursday against the Hurricanes. It was equally fun was to see how excited he was after he scored.
I’ve often felt Alexander Wennberg is the most underappreciated Kraken player to ever wear the jersey, but I also put Jaden Schwartz in that same boat. Schwartz has two of the three power-play goals scored by the Kraken this season and is often moved around the lines to get other players going.
As a team, I believe the Kraken have played better than their record shows so far (although, maybe not so much against the Rangers). They’ve allowed 3.33 goals against per game, but three of the goals against were on an empty net.
Former 2022-23 Seattle Kraken fourth-liners Morgan Geekie, Daniel Sprong, and Ryan Donato have a total of four goals for their 2023-24 teams. The Kraken’s 2023-24 fourth line of Tye Kartye, Pierre-Edouard Bellemare, and Kailer Yamamoto have three goals through the first six games.
It’s way too early to start looking at the standings, but it is calming to see that the third-place Los Angeles Kings have just two more points than the Kraken.
Player performance /Stick taps
Jagger Firkus (Moose Jaw Warriors, WHL) – Firkus has five goals in his last two games, bringing his season goal total to 10 in 10 games. That’s not bad.
Jagger Firkus does his best work in the final minute of the period
Pierre-Edouard Bellemare (Kraken) – Bellemare has a face-off win percentage of 56.5 percent, and he scored his first goal as a Kraken, netting a short-handed goal against the Carolina Hurricanes on Thursday.
Vince Dunn (Kraken) – Dunn had a goal and three assists in the three Kraken games last week. I’ve mentioned several times this season that he has looked off, but I figured it was just a matter of time before he would be back to 2022-23 form. He looked back against Carolina.
I spent most of my Sunday doing data gymnastics to fix my location data from the Saturday game, since it was thrown off by the lighting issue that had the teams trading sides halfway through each period. You see, a defensive-zone face-off varies depending on the period (and arena) of the game. When the teams switch sides in the middle of a period, that logic gets screwed up. I realized this when my wife leaned over to me at the game and said, “This is going to screw up your data.”
As always, let me know if you have any questions, feedback, or suggestions on other areas to investigate by leaving a note in the comments section.
Even before the opening face-off Saturday, we saw signs this game between the Rangers and the Kraken was going to be a strange one.
Something was a little off in the pre-game show; maybe Game Ops had intentionally toned things down, but it didn’t seem like they were doing all the on-ice projections they normally do, and one set of lights didn’t go off like usual. More on this in a bit, but it was a sign of things to come.
The game itself was a real stinker from the Kraken. After they jumped out to a 1-0 lead in the first period on a Justin Schultz one-timer, it was a slow, painful slide (both literally and figuratively) the rest of the way.
Here are our Three Takeaways from an ugly 4-1 Kraken loss to the Rangers.
Takeaway #1 (Darren): Did Artemi Panarin pull the plug?
After Tommie Burton brought the house down (as he always does) with his pre-game Star-Spangled Banner rendition, the lights came up, and the puck was quickly dropped at center ice. I couldn’t put my finger on it right away, but the playing surface just didn’t quite look right. As the synthetic smoke used in the pre-game show slowly dissipated, it suddenly became clear the offensive end of the ice for Seattle was darker than its defensive end.
A set of lights had malfunctioned, causing about a 10-minute delay to the game, as the officials gave technicians at Climate Pledge Arena a chance to find a solution. There was a flurry of activity on the catwalks high above the ice, including Kraken CEO Tod Leiweke pacing up and down and talking on his cell phone.
In the end, no solution was found to the lighting issue, so the NHL decided the game should go on, and that the teams should switch ends at the first stoppage after the 10:00 mark of each period to eliminate unfair advantages.
“Switching every 10 minutes is kind of crappy,” said McCann. “Especially when you get momentum, they stop the game and switch ends, it’s obviously not great, but we didn’t have our best effort tonight. We weren’t there defensively. It felt like we were soft on pucks and we weren’t making hard plays.”
Both teams dealt with the problem, so it’s hard to say this negatively impacted the Kraken (and McCann also shared similar sentiments on the issue). But Philipp Grubauer did give up the softest goal he has allowed this season just six seconds after the switch in the second period, letting a Jacob Trouba slap shot squeeze through him and lay loose in the crease for Kaapo Kakko to push over the line.
That goal came on the brighter end of the ice, so again, you can’t blame the lighting, but it is an odd coincidence in terms of timing.
“I don’t think that had an impact on the game,” said coach Dave Hakstol. “The initial delay isn’t great; it takes a lot of energy out of the building, but that’s not a crutch we’ll lean back on.”
Regardless of if the lighting situation actually skewed the game, the Kraken had no answer for Artemi Panarin’s line with Filip Chytil and Alexis Lafreniere on this night. Panarin came away with two goals (both scored on the dark end of the ice), Chytil had three primary assists, and Lafreniere added a goal of his own.
I asked Panarin what he made of the whole lighting situation, and he said, “For me, I want it darker, so it’s harder for goalies.” He then claimed responsibility for pulling the plug himself. “I’m doing all that stuff before the game.”
Mr. Leiweke, we found the culprit!
Takeaway #2 (Curtis): Kraken offense is ice cold
By any measure, the Kraken did not generate enough offense to win on Saturday night. Total shots on goal? The Kraken had just 17 in the game, a season low. Compare that with the 36 shots the team put on goal in Thursday’s win against the Carolina Hurricanes; that’s a big drop.
How about high-danger shot attempts? The Kraken had just two all night according to Natural Stat Trick–also a season low and well off the team’s average of 11.4 per game entering Saturday’s contest.
How about total shot quality? According to Natural Stat Trick,the Kraken generated shots worth just 1.38 expected goals in the game. Again, this is a new season low. The team generated fewer expected goals just once during the entirety of the 2022-23 season (at Carolina on Dec. 12, 2022) and only one other time during the team’s low-scoring inaugural campaign (at Tampa Bay on Nov. 26, 2021).
So it is fair to say Seattle has never in its existence put out such anemic shot quality on home ice. The next worst expected goal performance was a Nov. 11, 2021, a home game against the Anaheim Ducks.
“We didn’t execute very well,” Hakstol said. “We weren’t moving. We didn’t have a lot of pace to our game. You saw that five-on-five. You saw that on our power-play opportunities. The sharpness [and] crispness [was] not there.”
In one respect, I felt a bit of deja vu when two consecutive power play opportunities in the middle of the second period came up empty and drew the life out of the offense. Hakstol pointed this out after the game, saying the Kraken took themselves out of the game in the second period.
More notable from this vantage point was the team’s overall inability to get inside and generate shots from the slot area between the circles. This has been a struggle all season, but it was especially evident Saturday. If the Kraken are going to break out of their early-season offensive malaise, they need to commit to getting to the middle of the ice.
Takeaway #3 (Darren): Andre Burakovsky injured, and it seems bad
Adding (potentially major) injury to insult, Andre Burakovsky got hurt again Saturday, and it sounds like it could be serious. About six minutes into the second period, Burakovsky was hustling toward the corner in the offensive end. He took a little shove from the oft-problematic hitter, Trouba, and slammed awkwardly into the end boards, shoulder first.
Burakovsky was hunched over skating to the bench, holding his shoulder or collar bone area. He went straight down the tunnel and didn’t return, and Trouba was given a two-minute minor for boarding.
On Burakovsky’s status, Hakstol said, “I’ll wait until tomorrow morning to make sure, but I mean, I don’t think it’s going to be something that’s real short term.”
Hakstol does not give injury updates. He just doesn’t do it. For him to say that in his post-game presser, that means Burakovsky’s injury is serious. That’s awful news for both the Kraken and Burakovsky, who was Seattle’s top scorer before he tore his groin and was lost for the second half of last season.
Burakovsky worked all offseason to rehab and be ready to go for 2023-24. He lasted just four and a half games, and now we would guess he’s out for the foreseeable future.
The Kraken entered Thursday’s matchup against the Carolina Hurricanes winless through four games on the season. Call us crazy, but we still felt confident going in that Seattle was going to come out victorious, even though the team had only scored three total goals and had only beaten Carolina one time out of four previous tries in franchise history.
Sometimes, you just get a feeling on game days, and hearing coach Dave Hakstol challenge his players to look at themselves and “do a little bit more” at morning skate gave us a hunch the players would refuse to let themselves sink into a deeper hole.
Lo and behold, seven different players scored goals, including two power-play goals and a short-handed goal, and—despite some hairy moments in the third period when the lead shrunk to 4-3—the Kraken ended up with a lopsided W as their first win of the season.
“At some point in time, you just have to go out and get it done, and that’s what we did tonight,” said Hakstol. “So, a little wobble at the start of the third period, gave up a couple quick ones, but nobody got back on their heels.”
Here are our Three Takeaways from an important 7-4 Kraken win over the Hurricanes.
Takeaway #1 (Darren): Burakovsky and Dunn have entered the chat
I have to credit John Barr for this one, because he called out both Vince Dunn and Andre Burakovsky on this week’s Sound Of Hockey Podcast, saying he didn’t think either player had looked particularly sharp so far. The duo must have listened to the episode before Thursday’s game, because they came out firing and combined for five points on the night. Dunn had a power-play goal and two assists, and Burakovsky added two assists of his own, including his 200th career point.
Just a 🚀 by Dunn, who has a goal and two assists so far tonight.
“Everyone really chipping in tonight makes my game shape itself,” Dunn said. “I don’t really get any of [my] goals without everyone doing their part out there, so a lot of credit to the other guys for finding me and getting open for me to distribute to them.”
After several questionable plays in the first few games, Dunn was back to looking like the version of himself that earned consideration for the Norris Trophy last season. He was dynamic, he was physical, and he was getting himself involved offensively throughout his team-leading 22:55 of ice time.
“It’s nice to see Dunner get on the board the way he did,” Hakstol said. “It’s a challenge when you miss a good chunk of training camp like he did, and I think there were different parts of his game that had a little bit of rust … He was rock solid tonight.”
We’re singling out Dunn and (to a lesser extent) Burakovsky mostly because it makes a convenient podcast-related narrative, but the reality is there were solid efforts up and down the lineup Thursday. The group finally got rewarded with a big bundle of goals, just as we predicted on that same episode, and all at once the floodgates opened.
Now, let’s see if they remain open moving forward.
Takeaway #2 (Curtis): Joey Daccord immense early
To Darren’s point, this had the feeling of a “get-right” game. Three-goal margin of victory. Seven goals by seven different goal scorers. For five of those scorers, it was their first of the season. 12 Kraken players recorded a point. This is the type of performance that allows everyone to loosen the grips on their sticks a bit and get into the flow of the season.
The story might have been different, however, but for the play of Kraken goaltender Joey Daccord in the first period. The Hurricanes recorded an incredible 34 total shot attempts in the first 20 minutes, 21 of which made it through to Daccord. According to Natural Stat Trick, Carolina had the decisive edge in the shot quality battle early, generating 1.9 expected goals in the first period alone, mostly on the strength of seven high-danger opportunities.
Those chances started almost immediately after puck drop. Just 17 seconds into the game, Hurricanes forward Jordan Martinook received a centering pass in the slot 10 feet from the goal and fired it on Daccord. But Daccord was ready to answer the bell, large and square at the top of the crease. (Shortly after, there was net-front traffic that led to a long-range wrister deflecting in on goal off Dunn’s body, but Dunn quickly swatted it away and saved a goal.) It’s easy to imagine the game going sideways if Seattle found itself in a 1-0 hole immediately—and to a team against which Seattle has struggled over the first two years.
The high-danger chances continued throughout the period. At 8:20 in the first, Martinook had another opportunity off a rebound directly in front of the net, but Daccord gave very little space for the Hurricanes to shoot.
Then, starting at 11:24, Daccord saw a flurry of chances from Seth Jarvis and Dimitri Orlov, but deftly navigated back and forth across the blue paint to turn each away.
And, finally, in the dying seconds of the period, Daccord had his biggest save of the night. It came just after Pierre-Edouard Bellemare scored to give Seattle a 3-1 advantage. Had the Hurricanes gotten one back at that point, it would have sapped much of Seattle’s momentum going into the intermission. With respect to the save itself, frankly, we’re not sure how Daccord managed to extend on Martin Necas’s shot here. It was just a remarkably athletic play.
It wasn’t all perfect for Daccord. Hakstol said as much after the game, indicating Daccord would have some “learning opportunities” from the goals he allowed. The young netminder ended up conceding four in total, with three coming in the third period. Indeed, if you were just looking at the advanced statistics after the game, you might reach the conclusion Daccord had a mediocre outing, having conceded those four goals against on just 3.32 expected goals according to Natural Stat Trick. But, as is often said, the timing of a goaltender’s saves is critical. And on Thursday night Daccord kept a then-winless Kraken team in the game early. He allowed the skaters to find their scoring touch and build a lead they never relinquished. He was a star of the game in my book.
(PS: It’s much easier for me to write than it is for me to talk right now. I’m on the mend, though.)
Takeaway #3 (Darren): Tye Kartye is so back
After Tye Kartye made the Kraken roster out of training camp, he was scratched for opening night in Vegas, then seemed to be trying to find his footing for the next couple games, before really creating buzz with linemates Pierre-Edouard Bellemare and Kailer Yamamoto Saturday against Colorado. Kartye took the next step Thursday, making himself noticeable every time he was on the ice in that fourth-line capacity.
But he became really noticeable in the third period, when Jaden Schwartz left the game (we believe it was the result of a shot block off his foot toward the end of the second period), elevating Kartye to the top line with Matty Beniers and Jordan Eberle.
“We went back to something that was familiar,” said Hakstol. “Karts has played a lot with Matty and with Ebs … He jumps in and stepped up into that role much like he did last year in the playoffs for us. He’s got a good presence about him. He plays the game the right way, and he went up there and did a good job when called upon.”
Kartye scored three goals in the playoffs last year, but he got his first official regular-season goal in the NHL just 21 seconds after Jared McCann had made it 5-3. Kartye’s goal came off a perfect pass into the crease by Beniers, and it gave the home faithful a huge sigh of relief.
Tye Kartye scored 21 seconds after McCann for his first regular-season NHL goal!
Great play by Beniers to create the chance, and Kartye goes hard to the net.
“It feels really good, and obviously that we won too, and we got off the schneid a little bit there,” Kartye said. “It feels really good.”
Kartye didn’t stop there. The very dislikable Brendan Lemieux ran over a prone McCann, earning himself a penalty late in the game. We aren’t convinced the hit was intentional (though it was Lemieux, after all, in a game that had gotten away from Carolina), but Kartye—like a veteran—went right after Lemieux as soon as he got out of the box.
Goodness, Brendan Lemieux.
I'm not sure Tye Kartye entirely knew what he was getting into with this one. pic.twitter.com/zrUpTVv5oZ
“It’s awesome,” said McCann. “He’s not known for that, right? But it’s a Soo boy sticking up for a Soo boy, so it’s nice.” (As a reminder, both players played their major junior hockey for the Soo Greyhounds of the OHL.)
And sure, Lemieux fed Kartye his lunch, but what a gutsy thing for a 22-year-old rookie to do. The legend of Tye Kartye continues to grow.
The Kraken are four games into the season, and things haven’t gone their way thus far. As such, the vibes haven’t been particularly high. In sympathy, Curtis and John’s voices are both very much broken, but they do their best in this one to fight through. Tune in to find out which host doesn’t make it all the way through.
On this episode, the guys recap Seattle’s last three games and give the latest Kraken news.
They also do a quick Kraken Roundtable, go Down on the Farm, and do a quick Let’s Get Quizzical.
Segments include Goalie Gear Corner, You Don’t See That Every Day, and Weekly One-Timers.
The Kraken are four games into the season, and things haven’t gone their way thus far. As such, the vibes haven’t been particularly high. In sympathy, Curtis and John’s voices are both very much broken, but they do their best in this one to fight through. Tune in to find out which host doesn’t make it all the way through.
On this episode, the guys recap Seattle’s last three games and give the latest Kraken news.
They also do a quick Kraken Roundtable, go Down on the Farm, and do a quick Let’s Get Quizzical.
Segments include Goalie Gear Corner, You Don’t See That Every Day, and Weekly One-Timers.
After such a magical playoff run last season, this is not the start the Seattle Kraken and their fans would have wanted. In their home opener Tuesday, Seattle had a good jump out of the gate, but then eased off the gas as the game went along, and Colorado took over, gliding through to a 4-1 win.
“We lacked execution in a few spots tonight,” said coach Dave Hakstol. “Against a good team, that leaves us on the wrong side of the ledger.”
The Kraken have unfortunately lived on that side of the ledger so far this season, and they remain winless through four games. Here are our Three Takeaways from the latest loss.
Takeaway #1 (Curtis): 5-on-4 play in the second period was the turning point
The game hung on the blades of the Kraken power play unit for four minutes in the middle of the second period, and they couldn’t deliver. It was the turning point in the game, and like last season, that is again quickly becoming a theme.
According to Natural Stat Trick, the Kraken generated more than 60 percent of the total shots and 64 percent of total shot quality in the first period en route to a 1-0 lead at the first intermission. Then, the team came out in the second period and kept the pressure on. Despite conceding the game-tying goal to Artturi Lehkonen, Seattle continued to carry the balance of play.
At 8:13 in the second, Seattle’s pressure seemingly paid off when Yanni Gourde drew a tripping penalty from Colorado defenseman Josh Manson. The power play quickly generated a couple close opportunities from Matty Beniers and Jordan Eberle but struggled to create any danger for much of the two minutes thereafter.
Just seconds after that power play was over, however, Gourde drew another penalty, this time an interference call on Avalanche superstar Nathan MacKinnon. All of the momentum should have been in Seattle’s favor as a weary group of Colorado penalty killers returned to the ice. But, in a familiar refrain for Seattle’s young season, the power play didn’t look cohesive and struggled to establish itself.
Worse, when a clear by Colorado defenseman Cale Makar hopped over Vince Dunn’s stick at center ice, Avalanche forward Logan O’Connor was left behind the defense to corral the puck and skate in on Philipp Grubauer unchecked. The result was a shorthanded goal and a 2-1 lead for the Avalanche.
D'oh! Kraken give up a shorthanded goal to O'Connor.
Clear around the boards by Makar hopped right over Dunn's stick, and O'Connor was off to the races.
Seattle didn’t recover. From that point forward, the Avalanche generated more and better scoring chances than the Kraken. In the third period, Natural Stat Trick had the Avalanche with more than 75 percent of the total shot quality, a dominant number. Overall, Seattle finished 0-for-4 on the power play, but the failed opportunities in the middle of the second period were a big part of the story in this one.
Takeaway #2 (Darren): Are the guys gripping the sticks too tightly?
Somewhat comically, Hakstol was asked this exact question about players gripping their sticks too tightly trying to force the puck into the net, and he said, “Oh, you guys [the media] will talk about that. We won’t.”
So here we are, aggressively taking the bait and talking about that.
Regardless of how much the Kraken discuss their offensive struggles in the dressing room, the struggles are there right now. The team collectively has registered just three total goals in four games, and every goalie they have faced has looked like a world beater against them. That is never a good sign and brings back memories of the team’s inaugural season.
The good news is that the Kraken are getting looks, so in theory, pucks will start to go in the net at some point. But the lack of finish is certainly setting off alarm bells.
Some examples Tuesday, Jaden Schwartz had a chance in the first period where he had all day to pick his spot on Georgiev, and he put it into his pads. Andre Burakovsky had a look on a two-on-one rush with Eeli Tolvanen, took his time to line up his shot, and rifled it off the end boards. Gourde had a wide-open opportunity to end the second period, and Georgiev slid across and robbed him with his left pad.
CHAOS to end the 2nd period!
Gourde gets robbed by Georgiev, then Lehkonen painfully blocks a shot before an odd-man rush at the other end.
2-1 Avs after 40 minutes. The #SeaKraken played well again that period, but allowed a 5v5 goal and a SHG.
When things were going well for the Kraken last season, they would have scored on at least a couple of those, and Tuesday’s game might have had a different outcome.
With the number of chances the Kraken are getting (they ended the night Tuesday with 3.04 expected goals for across all situations), it does feel like one positive outcome in a game is all they need for an offensive jumpstart. If they can get one game where a few guys get on the board, monkeys will start coming off backs, and the floodgates will open. But Seattle does need that to happen relatively soon, or they will have dug themselves a massive hole in the standings before races even get underway.
“Everybody wants to score a little more and provide a little bit more,” Hakstol said. “But you can’t wave a magic wand and have that happen.”
Takeaway #3 (John): Shot quality to date
Lack of scoring was the main theme of this game and the season to date. As we have mentioned several times, the eye test says the Kraken are getting chances, but are they good chances? Certainly, we can call out the more memorable opportunities in last night’s game (as Darren did), but are we seeing a good volume of high-quality shot attempts compared to the rest of the league?
Using the always reliable Natural Stat Trick, I pulled the season-to-date data for all games to see how the Kraken stacked up.
This somewhat confirms what the eye test is telling us. The boys are getting chances but have been unable to bury the puck with those chances. Let’s take a look at how that compares to last season.
The shooting percentage last season was one of Seattle’s strengths, and based on the 2022-23 chart, that applied to high-danger shots as well.
Now, I do not expect Seattle to lead the league in high-danger shooting percentage again, but I think they are still a much better shooting team than they are showing and should be able to get close to league average… eventually. In the meantime, it is really frustrating, and if there was a magical formula to just “shoot better,” I am sure the team would have used it already. Sadly, Hakstol confirmed there is no “magic wand.”
If we take a conservative, lower-than-league-average high-danger shooting percentage of 30 percent, and multiply it by the 31 high-danger shots Seattle has taken, the Kraken would have scored 9.3 high-danger goals at this point. Subtract the two high-danger goals they have scored and the team would have seven more goals to show in the season. Those additional seven goals would have helped.
We can cite data all we want, but at the end of the day, the Kraken are not winning and that is a concern. But we are also only four games into the season. Last season the club was 1-2-1 after four games, and there was a lot of doom and gloom chatter from the fans at that point as well. I still believe the 10-game mark is where we can start to draw some conclusions about this team, so I will do my best to be patient.
Welcome to another edition of my Monday Musings and the first of the 2023-24 season. On this series, I throw out random thoughts and half-baked theories from the previous week and give a look at what’s happening in the new week and beyond.
Kraken thoughts
The boys lost to the Golden Knights, Predators, and Blues to start the season. We knew the Kraken’s first 10 games of the 2023-24 season were going to be a challenge, but we did not expect to start the season with a winless road trip. In these first 10 games, the Kraken will end up facing seven 2022-23 playoff teams, so one would have hoped they could bank some wins against non-playoff teams from last season, like St. Louis and Nashville. But here we are with a 0-2-1 record with the Avalanche, Hurricanes, and Rangers coming to town.
Sample size
I don’t know who needs to hear this, but three games is not even close to a significant sample size to evaluate the outcome of the season. I have seen a few pessimistic viewpoints already, but as a reminder, the team went 1-2-2 in the first five games of last season. If the Kraken manage to get two out of the possible six points this week, they will basically be at the same point as last season.
One of the lowest moments of last season was after the Kraken lost to the Chicago Blackhawks on Oct. 23. There hadn’t been much optimism anyway heading into 2022-23, but nobody expected/wanted a repeat of 2021-22. That game was memorable because the Kraken squandered a third period lead by giving up back-to-back goals within 20 seconds of each other. Even the most level-headed fans were on the doom and gloom train. The Kraken then won six out of the next seven and never looked back. I am not trying to be overly optimistic here but am just giving you context around why I am still patient.
A fair question is how many games is considered significant? To try to answer that question I looked at different game markers from last season to see if there is a spot where teams start to settle into their playoff position. Here is a look at all teams’ records by points percentage at the five-game and ten-game mark.
As you might be able to tell, the five-game mark seems massively out of sync with how teams finished the season, and it wasn’t until the 10-game mark when playoff teams started to rise up the standings.
Penalty kill
The penalty kill looks rock solid so far and hasn’t allowed a power-play goal over 11 manpower disadvantage situations in the first three games of the season. There were only two different times last season when the Kraken did not allow a power-play goal over a three-game stretch. They appear to be picking up right where they left off last season.
Although the Kraken ranked 21st in penalty kill percentage in 2022-23, they made huge strides in the second half of the season, posting an 84.3 percent kill rate after Jan. 1. That put them in the top five in the league over that same timeframe.
The only significant change to the penalty kill from the second half of last season is the arrival of Pierre-Edouard Bellemare. He is known for his ability to kill penalties, and that has been abundantly clear in his three games with the Kraken so far. The only wrinkle is the injury to Brandon Tanev in Game 1. Tanev led the forward group in PK time on ice last season, so even though the group has done well without him, he is still a key factor, and the sooner he gets back the better.
If the Kraken can maintain a top-five penalty kill this season, that will be huge positive for their goal differential and could more than make up for the scoring losses of Ryan Donato and Daniel Sprong over the offseason.
Other Kraken thoughts
I’ve seen a lot of people referencing a “regression to the mean,” but if you are going to cite statistical terms, make sure you acknowledge “sample size.” Otherwise, you are guilty of “confirmation bias.”
If you are expecting a regression, I would like to know who you think will regress. (Jared McCann, Oliver Bjorkstrand, Andre Burakovsky?)
The Kraken’s 2-1 shootout loss to the Blues on Saturday night was the ninth shootout game in franchise history. They have won three shootout games, but all three of those wins came in the inaugural season when they won three out of four. It was interesting to see Matty Beniers and Oliver Bjorkstrand take shots Saturday, though both were stopped by Jordan Binnington.
For Kraken fans, the three-on-three overtime versus the Blues was a delight to see. The Kraken seemed to have the puck for all but about 30 seconds of the extra frame. Last season the Kraken lost their first three games that ended in overtime. After one practice working on it, the team would end up winning 9 of the next 10 games it had that ended in overtime. The Kraken are pretty good in overtime… just not the shootout.
I must assume the fact that no one has been called up from the Coachella Valley Firebirds is a pretty good indicator that Tanev’s injury is not terribly severe and that we should expect him sooner rather than later.
The Firebirds dropped their season opener on Friday with a 3-2 loss to the Bakersfield Condors. He did not get on the score sheet, but word around the campfire is Shane Wright played especially well.
I really like what I am seeing out of the Kraken’s fourth line so far. Although they did not log a lot of minutes on Saturday, they put together a couple shifts where they had St. Louis penned up in its zone and seemed to shift momentum.
As much as I like the fourth line performance to date, there are moments that Tye Kartye has looked out of place. This might be a feeling-out period for him with the NHL speed and/or a fourth-line role, or it might be a sign he is not quite ready for the NHL full-time and will be better served logging more minutes down in the AHL.
Will Cale Makar get booed every time he touches the puck on Tuesday? If I have a vote, and technically I do, I say yes.
The Kraken have never won a home opener.
Player performance
Mariah Fujimagari (KLW) – Made 14 saves on 17 shots to become the first woman to record a victory in a preseason game for the Kalamazoo Wings of the ECHL. You can read more of her story here.
Philipp Grubauer/Joey Daccord (SEA) – Sample size aside, both goalies have looked good in their respective games. Collectively they have a .942 save percentage and have four goals above expected. Yeah, yeah… sample size. It’s early, I know.
Carson Rehkopf (KIT/SEA) – The friend of the Sound Of Hockey Podcast and Seattle Kraken prospect had five points over two games last week, including a hat trick on Friday night against the Barrie Colts. The kid is making it look easy.
When the Kraken scored their first power-play goal of the season against the St. Louis Blues on Saturday night, it also marked their first lead of the season. Here is a breakdown of the percentage of game time teams have been leading this season.
I guess things could be worse.
Kraken themes for the week ahead
The Kraken could be facing one of their toughest three-game stretches of the season when they face the Avalanche, Hurricanes, and Rangers for their first homestand. A target goal would be four points, and I would be happy with three. During the regular season, they went 3-3-1 against those teams in 2022-23 and of course beat Colorado in the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs last spring.
One thing I would love to see this season is for the Kraken to establish a true home-ice advantage. Last season the Kraken were better away from Climate Pledge Arena than inside it.
I don’t even have a theory on why there is such a discrepancy between their home and away records, which makes me hope it is just a fluke and will not be a normal behavior. I would love to see their home games start off right with two wins this week, regardless of the opponent.
Another order of business I would like to see cleaned up is Seattle’s scoring. The .667 average goals scored over the three games is the lowest in franchise history for a three-game stretch. With so many posts hit and a disallowed goal in the last game, it feels like the luck could turn at any moment.
If you have made it this far, I appreciate you… and if you didn’t make it to the bottom, I still appreciate you. If you have any other topics, questions, or feedback you would like me to consider, leave a note in the comments section.
The Kraken returned home after Saturday’s game in St. Louis with one measly point to show in the standings following a three-game road trip to open the 2023-24 season. In all three games so far, we can pinpoint moments where a bounce or two going Seattle’s way could have turned the tide and given the Kraken at least a chance to win. But that’s hockey, and you have to take advantage of your opportunities so that bad bounces aren’t as damaging.
Regardless of how the hockey gods are treating them right now, the fact is the Kraken haven’t been able to score goals thus far, so they head to their home opener with an unimpressive 0-2-1 record with just two combined goals in three games.
Saturday’s game was a little different than the previous two, in that the Kraken did so many things right and had every chance to come away victorious. They looked faster in transition, they maintained control of the puck through the entire overtime period, and they even got a power-play goal. They were on the front foot for a lot of the night.
“I thought the team played great; we played really well,” said goaltender Joey Daccord. “We did a lot of good things, we got a lot of chances. It just didn’t drop for us tonight, but if we keep playing like that, the puck will go in for us.”
Here are our Three Takeaways from an unsatisfying 2-1 Kraken shootout loss to the Blues.
Takeaway #1 (Curtis): Schwartz brings juice in return to St. Louis
Jaden Schwartz played with the St. Louis Blues for 10 seasons, including the 2018-19 Stanley Cup winning campaign. On Saturday, Schwartz returned to his former home arena as a visitor for only the second time, and it was clear he had a jump in his step early.
Schwartz played with excellent pace, perhaps the best we’ve seen in the regular season during his time with the Kraken. In the first period, he chased down Blues defenseman Justin Faulk in open ice and generated an extra possession. In the second period, he created a two-on-one opportunity with speed by driving wide. And he got in on another rush in the third.
But no play was more important than his net-front work on the power play early in the second period when he tracked an Oliver Bjorkstrand shot and tipped the puck past Blues goaltender Jordan Binnington. The goal gave Seattle its first lead of the season.
Even more significantly, Schwartz’s work broke the ice for the Kraken on the power play. Seattle had gone 0-6 (including a major penalty) through the first two games of the year. This power play futility had been a topicof conversation recently, but for one night at least, Schwartz took the pressure off that unit. Unfortunately, the Kraken didn’t get the opportunity to build on Schwartz’s success because the team didn’t draw any other power plays on the night.
Takeaway #2 (Darren): Nice outing by Joey
After he earned the full-time backup NHL job out of training camp for the first time in his career, we were curious to see what kind of performance Joey Daccord would have in his season debut.
“I felt pretty good in there,” said Daccord. “It was nice to be back in a real game.”
Good on coach Dave Hakstol for getting him in there early in the season and resisting the urge to keep riding Philipp Grubauer, who was coming off an outstanding game in Nashville.
Daccord rewarded Hakstol for the decision, and if he was at all nervous, it didn’t show. Daccord looked calm, cool, and collected throughout, and the one shot that beat him came from a prime scoring area, off a rush, by Jordan Kyrou. On that play, Jared McCann did a good job to back check and turn a three-on-two into a three-on-three, but he flew right by Kyrou, the eventual goal scorer.
Daccord stopped 24 of 25 shots, with his best save of the night coming against Sammy Blais with five minutes left in the third period.
On the play, Will Borgen stumbled, allowing Blais to barrel right in toward Daccord. But Joey stood his ground and got the left pad out to reject the scoring opportunity.
According to Natural Stat Trick, the Blues had 2.29 expected goals for, meaning Joey stopped 1.29 goals more than he should have in the game. Hakstol called the performance “rock solid.”
That’s a nice start to Daccord’s career as a full-time NHLer.
Takeaway #3 (John): Penalty kill still perfect
One bright spot for the Seattle Kraken so far is their penalty kill. Saturday night against the Blues, the Kraken went to the kill four times and still kept their unblemished record intact.
“The special teams were solid tonight,” said Hakstol. “Our PK did a really good job.”
That brings the total of successful penalty kills this season to 11 out of 11. Though Seattle was quite good in these situations in the second half of last season, it was still an area that we expected to improve in 2023-24 with the additions of Pierre-Edouard Bellemare and Brian Dumoulin.
In Bellemare’s case, he is revered for his play in manpower disadvantage scenarios and ranked first for penalty kill time on ice amongst Tampa Bay forwards last season.
Bellemare’s defensive instincts especially shone through with three minutes left in the first period Saturday, when he intercepted a Robert Thomas pass and cleared the zone, despite not having a stick in his hands.
What a play by Pierre-Edouard Bellemare to deflect a pass and clear the zone on the PK… WITH NO STICK!
Jared McCann followed this up by ringing a shot loudly off the post at the other end. pic.twitter.com/lFIxFYXO6i
It is also important to note that Brandon Tanev, who has been a staple of the Seattle Kraken penalty kill unit, has been out the last two games with an injury.
Three games is still not a big sample, and last season, there were several stretches of five games or more where the Kraken did not allow a power-play goal. But we like what we have seen so far. With the Avalanche, Hurricanes, and Rangers coming to town this week, the penalty kill unit will certainly be tested.
The puck drops at 7:00 pm PT tonight on a new season for the Coachella Valley Firebirds, the Kraken’s AHL affiliate. Between Josh Horton, me, and the rest of the Sound Of Hockey team, we hope to bring you more Firebirds and Kraken prospect coverage than ever this year. We’re brainstorming a few ideas on how to do that, so we hope you follow along. Let’s start our journey in the desert by reacquainting ourselves with the team, previewing the lineup, and identifying a few storylines to follow early this season.
But, before we get to that, an important public service announcement: The Firebirds’ opener tonight, October 13, against the Bakersfield Condors is free to stream on AHL TV. Check it out here.
Recapping the 2022-23 Season
In their inaugural season, the Firebirds made quite the impression. Coachella Valley racked up 103 points in the standings, second in the AHL only to the Calgary Wranglers. The team was strong across the board in the regular season, checking in with the third most goals scored and second best goal differential among the 32 AHL clubs. That strength extended into the goal with Joey Daccord tallying .918 save percentage in 38 regular season games.
The season culminated with a championship run that came agonizingly close to the Calder Cup. In their record-setting 26th postseason game, the Firebirds made it to overtime of game 7 of the finals against the Hershey Bears before a Mike Vecchione shot snuck by Joey Daccord to deliver victory to the AHL’s oldest franchise. Hard to imagine a tougher end to the season, but it is also hard to imagine a team and a fanbase that had more fun along the way than the 2022-23 Coachella Valley Firebirds.
The 2023-24 lineup
On October 10, 2023, the Coachella Valley Firebirds reassigned eight players to the Kansas City Mavericks of the ECHL, including 2022 7th round draft pick Kyle Jackson. This brought some clarity to the team’s initial roster, which stands at 27 players:
The team rotated the lines and pairs in their only preseason outing on October 8, 2023, so we don’t have a great sense of precisely how these players will fit together when the team takes the ice on Friday night.
Last season we often saw Kole Lind and captain Max McCormick skating together on a top line (often centered by the departed Alex True). I wouldn’t expect that change. Andrew Poturalski and Cameron Hughes were also stalwarts in the top-six, and I’d expect that to continue as well. On the blue line, the team’s top two left-shot defenseman return in Gustav Olofsson and Ryker Evans, but there has been some shuffling on the right side.
Without the benefit of being at practice or the preseason games, here is a guess (and I emphasize guess) at a lineup the team could deploy Friday night:
If the team holds out Shore or Hayden based on the injury situation in Seattle, I’d expect one of Robertson or Melanson to draw in.
Having shared this guesswork, I’ll also caution against overreacting to a veteran-heavy opening night lineup if Robertson, Melanson, or Ottavainen aren’t in there, for example. The team did not have much preseason ice time, particularly after the team’s first exhibition was canceled due to a power outage. After the Friday night opener, the team does not have another regular season game for eight days. This leaves ample runway for the Firebirds to practice and evaluate its group of young players before game number two.
How the Firebirds stack up around the AHL
Though several Seattle Kraken drafted prospects have begun to arrive in the desert, the team is still a year-or-two away from a “normal” situation where draft picks are regularly cycling in-and-out. As a result, the team remains heavy on veterans. According to data tracked by Elite Prospects, the Firebirds will start the 2023-24 season as the tenth-oldest AHL team based on average player age. (The Firebirds were the fifth-oldest AHL team by the same metric last year.)
This year’s squad will be increasingly reliant on speed and skill. While the team ranked among the top-ten tallest and heaviest teams last season, based on player averages, many of the squad’s larger players up front and on the blue line departed in the offseason. This leaves the team in the no. 25 in the league average player height and middle-of-the-pack in player weight.
The skill should still be there though. The team returns two top-20 scorers in Max McCormick and Kole Lind, another just outside the top-30 in Cameron Hughes, and a player in Andrew Poturalski who has led the AHL in scoring in the past (though he missed time with an injury last year). Add to this stable of veteran scorers a wave of younger players that have scored effectively at junior levels and the team should do well putting the puck in the net.
Finally, as I noted earlier in the summer, this is one of the more expensive rosters in the AHL. The Kraken have invested heavily in a winning development program. The product in Palm Desert should remain strong.
Andrew Poturalski skates at Climate Pledge Arena (Photo/Brian Liesse)
Key departures
The team sees its starting goaltender (and one of its emotional leaders), Joey Daccord, and third leading scorer, Tye Kartye, begin the season with the Seattle Kraken. Beyond that, the team lost its sixth leading scorer, Jesper Froden and inaugural Kraken Alexander True and Carsen Twarynski in free agency. On the blue line, the team lost its top scoring defenseman, Brogan Rafferty, and an experienced, tough player in Matt Tennyson. I don’t have many questions about the team’s scoring ability, but goal prevention will be an area to watch early in the season.
Key additions
Former Charlotte Checker and offensive-minded, right-shot defenseman Connor Carrick rejoins the Kraken organization for the 2023-24 season. In doing so, he’ll be reunited with former Checker teammate and fellow righty defenseman Cale Fleury, who will begin the season with Coachella Valley after sticking in Seattle for the entirety of the 2022-23 campaign. Marian Studenic is a proven and prolific AHL goal scorer up front the team added in free agency.
Coachella Valley also welcomes a group of six Kraken prospects to the team, each of whom could play a role at some point during the season: Shane Wright, Ryan Winterson, Tucker Robertson, Jacob Melanson, Logan Morrison, and Ville Ottaivenen.
Three storylines to watch early in the season
Shane Wright. This is the big one. Wright logged 32 games with the Firebirds last season, mostly in the playoffs, but it was amidst a “planes trains and automobiles” season that likely left his head spinning. This year, there is no such uncertainty about where he’ll play or how much he’ll play. Kraken GM Ron Francis told the media after Wright’s reassignment that the team had given Wright areas to work on and the team was looking forward to seeing him play heavy minutes in all situations. Wright’s development is the biggest storyline to follow from the Kraken perspective because the young forward’s potential is so high if he can put the pieces together.
Shane Wright skates during camp scrimmage (Photo/Brian Liesse)
The goaltending tandem. Chris Driedger should be the stronger half of a tandem in goal as he comes back from an ACL injury at the 2022 World Championships. If he can start to show he is still the player that the Kraken targeted and signed to be one of the team’s NHL goalies before its inaugural season, interest may grow internally and from other clubs to get him back to the NHL.
Driedger’s partner, Ales Stezka, is also interesting. Stezka is coming off an elite season in the Czech Extraliga, which is one of the best professional leagues in the world. Already 26 years old, he’s entering his goalie prime. If he can translate his high level play to North America, he’ll put Coachella Valley in a great position to win this season and give the Kraken a lot to think about when it comes to extending the relationship beyond Stezka’s current one-year deal.
Prospects that acclimate quickly. The story of Tye Kartye is well-known at this point. Despite coming in as an undrafted free agent, Kartye forced his way into the lineup of a talented Coachella Valley club last year. Then, as the season progressed, he worked his way up the lineup, and eventually he skated with the Kraken in the playoffs.
Is there a rookie that takes the same trajectory this year? That’s a hard standard to live up to, but it starts early in the season with ice time. Which young players have gained the coaching staff’s confidence and have seized a role?
Lesser known players like Morrison, Robertson, and Melanson all have the potential to do it. Morrison brings skill and offensive instincts if he can up his skating game like Kartye did. Robertson is a 200-foot center with high level hockey sense who could emerge if he can score just enough. Melanson is a physical player and agitator with enough skill to score in a professional lineup if he can maintain his sandpaper play style against bigger and faster competition. All eyes will be on them from Seattle.
