With Team USA showcasing dominance in the IIHF World Junior Championship so far, a compelling narrative has emerged, highlighting the United States as a burgeoning hockey superpower. This shift challenges the traditional mindset, and we’re beginning to expect momentous victories from USA Hockey teams.
I have been consistently documenting the growth of USA Hockey, using it as a justification for NHL expansion into new markets. To visually represent the progression, it seems timely to share another data analysis on the prevalence of American hockey players in the NHL, showcasing the remarkable journey we’ve undergone.
Nationalities of NHL players
The number of US-born players in the NHL has reached an all-time high this season, at 29.3 percent of the league. In contrast, the percentage of Canadian players has dropped to 41.2 percent, the lowest of all time. It’s worth noting that these figures might undergo slight changes due to factors such as injuries, call-ups, and other scenarios between now and the end of the season, but this is a good look at how the countries are trending.
As the chart indicates, this trend has been going on for quite some time.
Here is a different way to look at the data, which makes clearer how many NHL players come from each nation in the 2023-24 season to date:
To delve deeper into the analysis, I also examined the nationalities of current NHL players based on their birth year to determine if there is any indication of an upcoming trend. For instance, I compared the age distribution of US players in the NHL to that of their Canadian counterparts with the same birth year.
In my opinion, there was nothing noteworthy when examining this year’s NHL players by birth year. Generally, the percentage of Canadians by birth year fluctuates randomly between 38 percent and 50 percent across the entire range of birth years. Similarly, the percentages of US players vary between 20 percent and 40 percent throughout the birth years.
The growth of US players in the NHL
As mentioned earlier, the number US-born players in the NHL has been trending up for a long time.
Digging a bit deeper on that, here is an overview of the birth states of US-born NHL players. The below visualization may not be perfect for illustrating the growth of some states, but it’s worth noting that the category labeled as “Other” now includes 95 players in the NHL this season. This category encompasses states with fewer than 10 players represented in the current season. That tells you some non-traditional markets have seen growth.
Another perspective to consider on the data is to observe the number of states being represented by at least one NHL player throughout the season.
Most analyses attribute the growing interest in hockey among Americans to three main themes: 1) the Miracle on Ice in the 1980 Olympics, 2) Wayne Gretzky being traded to the LA Kings, and 3) NHL expansion. While the first two are challenging to validate definitively, the impact of NHL expansion aligns with the growth in USA Hockey memberships by state over the years.
To illustrate this transformation, I compared a map of NHL players from the 1990-91 season to the current 2023-24 season. The discernible impact of “southern expansion” becomes rather evident in the comparison.
Nationality by team
As a fun bonus piece of content, here is a look at the nationality breakdown by NHL team this season. The Kraken are 48 percent Canadian and 23 percent American. The team with the highest percentage of American players is the New York Rangers at 50 percent.
If you have any questions, feedback, or suggestions for further exploration, leave a comment below and I will get back to you.
Very cool stuff! Thanks so much for sharing this research!
Thanks for writing and sharing John! Found it really interesting – and mentioned in my newsletter this week https://www.plottheball.com/p/are-there-any-good-goalies
Well theres a lot more Canadian born players in nhl now also all time
There are 400.canadians knooky licker in 1967 120
In 1980 what 300
So get youre head out of youre arse
And why no relate it to hoops
All the best white basketball players are not from USA and the best players overall are no longer blacks
They are mixed so things change
What sport exactly are white American men the best in world at ????
Sure as shit not baseball
Canada is still way better at ice hockey for superstars really
And too be honest i think USA had their best ever talent in 1996
So if you think Mathews Fox Mccovoy Robertson are better then
Modano Hull Lafontaine Housley Leetch you do not know the sport youre talking 4th line pluggers
USA was closer to Canada in 1996 then now
Id take 3 or 4 Americans would make Canada
17 canadians would make usa
In net is where usa is better necause you have white freaks 6-7 that hate blacks and not want play hoops
Plus goaltending is no longer skillfull
Its get a big freak with oversized gear to block pucks
They no longer save they all go down before a shots even made and block the area
I know i played the position and would actually make skate saves and leg flat on ice saves you dont see this anymore
And why is usa loosing out in hoops now ???
An all white team would handily beat an all black team why ???
Only if you put in mixed race they have a shot right
So there
Derp, derp
Give the USA another 5-10 years. Canada will not even be close ! Especially now with ESPN promoting the sport. In 5 years, there will be equal amounts of USA players vs. Canadian players.
The Stanley cup is now America’s cup. And will remain for a LONG time ! Maybe 1 Canadian team will win every 30 years. Here in Canada: everybody knows this
How high are you? Hockey is growing down here, but not nearly at the rate Betman would have you believe. Its a 4th or 5th option in many cities, 5-10 years, No. Maybe 30-40 they will overtake Canada
Great stuff! Thanks for this breakdown. Super informative.
Here in Canada (Toronto), everybody knew that It was only a matter of time before the USA became the world hockey superpower. The only thing that ever stopped the USA from becoming the superpower of hockey was the USA itself because of lack of interest ! With a population of over 335 million, how does poor Canada compete with only 40 million.
If the New York Rangers or Boston bruins play either the Vancouver Canucks or the Colorado Avalanche in the Stanley cup final: I think it would be the first time that both teams have a majority of American players in the Stanley cup finals !
Neat shit John! Superb analysis!!
Hey There! Was curious where you got this data from! I anticipate I will be doing some similar analysis, and am trying to find a good data source of nationality of NHL players dating back to the 1960’s to present. Thanks!
It would be cool to calculate the points per player and goals per player efficiency average between Canadian, American and European players that have played a minimum of X games (to eliminate data skew), classified by forwards and defencemen. Based on my review of recent games, I think American players may now be more efficient than Canadians.
It would also be interesting to calculate this by draft year to see if there is a trend toward greater efficiency of Americans, which I think there is.