As the first period of the 2024 Winter Classic wound down, Kraken fans everywhere were content–basking in rays of sunshine on a beautiful day for outdoor hockey and awash in the afterglow of Eeli Tolvanen’s go-ahead deflection goal that made it 1-0.

With two minutes left on the clock in the opening frame, Brian Dumoulin possessed the puck along the boards in the defensive zone on a low-leverage sequence. Then, in an instant, the game hung in the balance. 

The Vegas forecheck pressured Dumoulin, and he attempted an ill-advised backhand centering pass that landed on the stick of Golden Knights forward Jack Eichel. Nothing but open ice separated the Vegas star player from Kraken goaltender Joey Daccord. 

It seemed like Eichel had all day to set up his move, and Kraken fans everywhere held their breath. A late-period goal could shift the momentum in favor of the reigning Stanley Cup champs.

But Daccord met that moment, turning away Eichel’s shot. 47,000 fans in attendance roared with approval, and “Jo-ey! Jo-ey!” chants washed over T-Mobile Park. Daccord went on to deny all 35 Vegas shots that day en route to the first ever Winter Classic shutout.

The Seattle Kraken have points in 13 straight games since Dec. 12, and Daccord’s goaltending has been paramount during that run. Daccord has started 12 of 13 games in Seattle’s current point streak, posting a sterling .950 save percentage in that stretch. His 158-minute shutout streak around the Winter Classic is the longest in the league this season, per Scott Malone of ROOT Sports.

Overall, Daccord has a .923 save percentage, which is tied for fifth best in the league among goalies with more than 10 starts. Expected goals metrics rate Daccord somewhere between above average (MoneyPuck) and excellent (NaturalStatTrick, Evolving Hockey) at preventing opposing shots from becoming goals. 

Either way, Daccord’s work between the pipes has been impressive of late. It is likely the single most important reason the Kraken are back in contention for a playoff spot. 

But that’s not really what this article is about.

A Curious Discovery

In the first part of this two-post series, I outlined a curious discovery: In virtually every gameplay situation, the Seattle Kraken generate better shot quality offensively and significantly suppress opponent shot quality defensively when Daccord is on the ice relative to when another goalie is playing. Displayed visually, Seattle’s shot frequency charts with Daccord on the ice are uniformly stronger than when he is off the ice.

In my first post, I considered a number of potential explanations for this observation and landed on a working theory that Daccord’s active goaltending style may at least partially explain the observed shot quality disparity.

The Project: Tracking Daccord’s aggressive puck play

That said, I wasn’t convinced that goalie puck play could have such a significant impact on overall shot quality outcomes. So, I embarked on a project spanning the last month-plus, tracking Daccord’s activity outside the goal crease.

I manually tracked Daccord’s puck-moving play beginning with the Nov. 22 home game against San Jose and continuing through Daccord’s Jan. 4 start against Ottawa. (Unfortunately, I don’t have video going back to the beginning of this period to match up with my notes because ESPN+ has decided to remove this season’s games from its archives after about 30 days. This is frustrating, and consider this an official, bonus Festivus grievance.) 

Based on my tracking, Daccord averaged more than four puck handling plays per game that resulted in a significant advantage at preventing opponent shots or promoting Kraken shots beyond what I would “expect” from a goalie. Generally speaking, these plays fell into one of three categories.

Breaking the forecheck

Most frequently in my sample (averaging three-plus instances per game), Daccord aggressively took control of opposing dump-in entries. Rather than stopping the puck behind the net or taking an easy pass to a support defender below the goal line, as Grubauer often does, Daccord would take possession and look for an active pass up ice. Sometimes he passed directly out of the defensive zone. On other occasions, he advanced it quickly within the zone away from the forechecking pressure. Either way, the quick puck movement consistently broke the forecheck before it could even start.

If opposing offenses recover and establish offensive-zone pressure almost 40 percent of uncontrolled entries, Daccord himself may be responsible for repelling one or more offensive-zone sequences each game more than “expected.” And even this may sell this value short because it does not give him credit for facilitating a controlled zone exit into transition offense (which we will discuss in a moment).

When asked about Vegas’s failure to establish a forecheck during the Winter Classic, Golden Knights coach Bruce Cassidy began his answer by calling out Daccord’s puck play. “[Daccord] handles pucks well, so that helps [Seattle] be more effective and efficient in [combatting the forecheck].” Cassidy said that puts pressure on the opposition to “put pucks into better areas,” referring to the corners where the goalie is not allowed to touch the puck. 

“As far as breaking the pucks out, [Daccord’s activity] makes it a lot easier as a D-man sometimes, if you’re not able to do it as two people back there,” defenseman Vince Dunn said. “Having [Daccord] as a third option for us, it makes it a lot easier and quicker.”

Defenseman Justin Schultz was even more effusive to Kate Shefte of The Seattle Times: “[Daccord is] so talented back there with the puck. I don’t think I’ve ever had a goalie that plays the puck that well. It’s like a third defenseman back there. You just try to get open for him–you know he’s going to make a play.”

This work is most notable in 5-on-5 play but also shows up at key moments on the penalty kill, including this crucial sequence in the first period of the Dec. 29, home game against Philadelphia.

Then, there was an even more memorable backhanded play in the Jan. 4 game against Ottawa.

“As I was making that play, I was like, ‘I really hope this gets out, because if not, I’m going to be in trouble,’” Daccord said that night. “I’ve worked on my stick handling and puck skills a lot over the years, and backhand is definitely way harder than forehand, so happy I got enough wood on it to get it out.” 

Added Kraken coach Dave Hakstol, “That was a heck of a play. There are certain plays that have some risk to them. That’s just great skill and the right play at the right time. That was a big clear at that time.”

Since breaking the zone is the most important thing a penalty killer can do, this active puck play may shed some light on the shot quality disparity with Daccord on the ice versus Philipp Grubauer or Chris Driedger observed in the penalty kill chart above. In the Philadelphia example, Daccord’s clear allowed Seattle to change and cost the Flyers more than 20 seconds off the clock before they re-established in the offensive zone.

Active stick and glove in the high-danger areas

Another skill Daccord brings to the table is extreme activity with his stick and glove in and around the blue paint. His mentality seems to be “attack first.” If he sees a loose or contested puck near the net he is quick cover it with his glove or swipe it away with the stick.

The data analysts at MoneyPuck have utilized shot data to generate an “expected freezes” model for goalies. A “freeze” is a stoppage of play caused by a player (usually a goalie) who stops and holds onto the puck. MoneyPuck‘s model tracks the “number of times you’d expect an average goalie to freeze the puck given the shots the goalie has faced.”

Daccord’s play style almost breaks the MoneyPuck model. Through 27 games, Daccord had 19 freezes above expected. The next closest goalie has just nine freezes above expected.

Based on my tracking, this is not because Daccord is hanging onto more shots than he should. On the contrary, I noted him aggressively avoiding freezes on certain shot types I would have expected another goalie to freeze. My theory is that this MoneyPuck data reflects Daccord seizing pucks in the high-danger areas that few other goaltenders would attempt to reach and freeze. (By way of comparison, Grubauer had -30.08 freezes above expected through his 17 games this season.)

In Daccord’s case, my observation is that he is more often using a “freeze” aggressively to mitigate a chaotic, high-danger sequence, which should be an advantage. If this is, in fact, an intentional strategy Daccord is deploying, he is following an approach described in detail by Daccord’s goalie coach father, Brian Daccord, to Fluto Shinzawa of the The Athletic:

What [Brian] Daccord discovered was that in large data sets, freeze rate was an even more accurate reflection of goalie performance than goal expectancy. But although services like Sportlogiq and Clear Sight Analytics track freeze rate, it is not a widely known or used metric.

. . .

A goalie with a high freeze rate, by comparison, is putting himself and his team in more advantageous positions. A faceoff is a 50-50 battle that allows a coach to change players and devise plays.

. . .

[Brian] Daccord anticipates a progression of top goalies steering rebounds to teammates as well as freezing them. For example, a goalie might identify a 3-on-2 rush and see an opportunity for a counterattack. That goalie may punch the puck aggressively beyond the first wave of attackers and onto a teammate’s stick.

“It’s like a chess player thinking three moves out,” Daccord said. “It’s, ‘OK, if I put this puck over to the top of the circle on the other side, we’re going the other way. If I leave this puck within five feet of me, I’ve got three guys on me. If I get the puck 15 feet away from me, we’re going the other way and get everybody trapped.’”

Fluto Shinzawa, How a new way of tracking ‘freeze rate’ could help unlock NHL goalie analytics: ‘That number will tell you everything, The Athletic

I don’t want to over-emphasize this “freeze rate” statistic because the stat is highly situation specific. There are strategically good and bad freezes, but the approach feels intentional and consistent with Brian Daccord’s philosophy. This will be interesting to track moving forward–even if, in my viewings, it is not as significant a driver of shot quality as Daccord’s puck-moving play described above.

Perhaps even more active than Daccord’s glove is his stick. He frequently uses a poke check to disrupt plays around the net and thwart one-on-one breakaways. This is not a “unique” skill, but he has been effective with it. I had him averaging one disruption of a potential high-danger chance per game with these attacking moves that I characterized as “unlikely” for Grubauer to attempt. 

This work doesn’t count towards Daccord’s save percentage or goals saved above expected because he is preventing the shot entirely. 

Offensive-minded passing

Finally, Daccord consistently brings an offensive mindset. He is constantly scanning the play so that when the puck hits his stick he knows whether he has an opportunity to create transition offense. Almost once per game, I noted Daccord as directly responsible for creating controlled transition and an offensive chance. Typically, this was by using a stretch pass to an available forward’s stick up ice. 

Daccord is particularly aggressive in creating advantages when the Kraken are the on the power play. Daccord will, at times, quickly advance the puck when opposing penalty killers are changing and anticipating a conventional reset.

This work may shed some light on the seemingly counterintuitive finding that the Kraken are able to generate more offense on the power play when Daccord is on the ice reflected in the power play charts above. It is also consistent with the vision for modern goaltending described by Brian Daccord to The Athletic.

Mistake goals will inevitably follow aggressive play

Daccord plays on his toes. He meets every rush at the top of (or above) the blue paint. And he is always calculating if he can take the puck away from the forecheck. This seems to create some shot quality advantages, as laid out above.

That said, playing aggressively comes with risks–and these risks were notable on tape. If Daccord misreads the forechecking pressure, mishandles the puck for a split second, miscommunicates with one of his teammates, or ices the puck when a simpler play was available, his aggressive play can hurt the team.

Adam Larsson laid out both sides of the equation to The Seattle Times. “He’s one of the best I’ve seen [handling the puck], and I think once we move forward and get the connection better with the ‘D,’ the timing better, it’s going to be even more helpful.” That said, “[S]ometimes when you’re too active out of the net, it can cost you a goal.” 

That showed up on tape too, with a few notable examples that Kraken fans no doubt recall.

In re-watching all 60 goals Daccord has allowed this season, I noted five goals where Daccord was left incapable of saving the shot due to a mistake that would not have happened but for Daccord’s aggressive play. 

This may be a partial explanation for Daccord’s struggles at saving what game logs record as “high-danger chances.” NHL Edge has Daccord among the worst in the league in high-danger save percentage at .760. 

These five goals against are important to keep in mind as the “cost” of Daccord’s play style (even if a few of them were not entirely his fault). Comparing this “cost” against the observed play-driving advantages, Daccord’s aggressiveness still seems like a beneficial trade-off for the team right now.

HockeyViz has the Kraken’s all situations shot quality at +9.9 expected goals better with Daccord on the ice relative to the other goaltenders. That said, if the shot quality benefits start to diminish, our final judgment on Daccord’s play style may need to change.

Takeaways on Daccord and the “active goaltender”

After roster cuts, we talked on The Sound of Hockey Podcast about how Daccord’s active play style contrasted with Grubauer’s stay-at-home approach. We debated whether the team would strive to harmonize the approach of the two goalies–for the benefit of the defensive scheme and structure–or allow each to play to their strengths. As we near the midway point of the season, it has become clear that, within certain limits, the Kraken have encouraged the goaltenders to “play their game” even if that means the defensemen need to be mindful of which goalie is in the net.

This has been the right call. Again, I don’t want to over-promise on the working theory I’ve laid out in these two posts. But, based on the data available so far, it appears that Daccord’s aggressive play style comes with a significant strategic advantage in terms of suppressing opponent shot quality and creating additional Kraken shots.

It is possible some or most of the observed shot disparity could be attributed to other factors. It is also possible that it is mostly “noise” in the data. But for the reasons described in my first post, I have reasonable confidence that Daccord’s contributions to shot quality outcomes have not yet been properly measured in public sources.

The Kraken are on a 13-game point streak at the moment. The most important factor in that stretch has been Daccord’s play in net, clearly. 

Is it possible that Daccord’s puck play venturing outside the blue paint is the second most important ingredient in the team’s recent success? We need to continue to watch it and collect necessary data. But, right now, I’d say yes.

There’s one important caveat: even if we assume Daccord’s play-driving impact is real, it may not be fully sustainable moving forward. The league may adjust to mitigate Daccord’s strengths by (1) decreasing reliance on dump-in entries, and (2) favoring soft lob entries into the corners when a dump-in is necessary. Cassidy referred to this after the Winter Classic. This chess game is worth watching.

For now, the numbers suggest to me that the Kraken may have a subtle but important strategic asset in Joey Daccord, the play-driving goalie.