We’re honestly not sure if it was great timing or terrible timing for Elmo to ask us how we were doing.
Tuesday was a tough night for Kraken fans, who watched their team mostly dominate the first 40 minutes against the bottom-dwelling San Jose Sharks, but a scoreless first two periods left the Seattle faithful feeling uneasy. If you watched that game rooting for the visitors, you knew what was coming in the third period.
Indeed, Marc-Edouard Vlasic broke through with a seeing-eye shot from the left point at 7:27 of the third period, bringing devastation and big reactions from across Kraken Nation. In the end, Seattle sent 32 pucks toward goalie Mackenzie Blackwood, finding zero offensive success on the night and getting shutout for the fifth time this season.
It WAS a trap!
The Kraken should have listened to Admiral Ackbar.
Every indication entering this game pointed toward Tuesday being a trap game for the Kraken. It was the last game before a long break, and Seattle’s players surely had their minds at least partially wandering to the vacations they had planned (well, except Oliver Bjorkstrand, who famously had to cancel his trip to San Diego in favor of a visit to Toronto for the NHL All-Star Game).
Mix in an almost empty building, an assumption the Kraken would win, and recent memories of the last time Seattle played San Jose (a 7-1 bloodbath after which the Sharks left Climate Pledge Arena feeling embarrassed), and you just knew this game could go in the wrong direction.
Coach Dave Hakstol acknowledged after Seattle’s win over Columbus on Sunday that bringing full focus would be important for the game Tuesday, and we do think the players brought a decent effort. It wasn’t the best they’ve had all season, but it was enough to beat San Jose most nights. Still, they didn’t do enough to get inside and get Blackwood moving in his goal crease, and the result was an uninspiring offensive performance.
Sure, the Sharks are one of the worst teams in the NHL, but they’re also professional hockey players who came into Tuesday with a chip on their shoulder. They defended well and got great goaltending, and the Kraken didn’t have a strong enough performance to break through.
Stay the course
So what should we feel about this dreadful loss? Is it truly time to jump ship and call for an organizational fire sale? Should Seattle cut ties with players on expiring contracts and play the Shane Wrights, Ryker Evanses, and Ryan Wintertons of the world?
Our short answers to each of the three questions above are, “Angry for now, but move on,” “No,” and “No.”
Kraken fans should be incensed about the outcome of that game, but it is not yet time to jump ship, and it is not yet time to sell off veteran players for draft capital. The Kraken’s playoff chances are hanging by a thread, but one game (or even a handful of games) does not an 82-game season make.
As terrible as that game felt—and don’t get us wrong, it was terrible to lose to the Sharks on a night when the Kraken just had to have the two points—it didn’t do that much damage to the team’s playoff outlook. It was a massive missed opportunity because the Kraken could have jumped back to level in the standings with Los Angeles, St. Louis, and Nashville, who all have 54 points (worth noting, the Kraken and Predators have each played 50 games, whereas the Blues have played 49, and the Kings have played just 47). But, it certainly didn’t eliminate Seattle from contention, and a lot can happen in Seattle’s remaining 32 games.
We aren’t trying to sugarcoat the loss; it was bad, horrendous, painful… whatever negative adjective you want to use to describe it, it was that. But it didn’t cost Seattle the season.
Hakstol talked us off the ledge
Every now and then, Hakstol’s level-headed approach to media availability is just what Kraken fans and media need. Even I—a perpetual optimist about the team’s chances—was ready to throw in the towel after that loss.
But when asked if he wants his players to spend the break dwelling on this performance, Hakstol guffawed and put things into perspective. He said Seattle lost a hockey game to a group that worked their tails off and defended hard, and the Kraken were disappointed to have lost. But did he want the team to sulk about the loss during their time away from the rink?
“We’ve worked extremely hard over the last couple of months, digging in and doing some good things to put ourselves in a position [to compete for a playoff spot]… It’s a sprint to the finish from there. It’s a 32-game playoff hunt, and for that, I want our guys to wash this pretty quickly, get a little bit of rest, and come back with a great mindset.”
He also used the phrase “control our own destiny,” which the Kraken can still do, even after this inconsistent stretch of play since Seattle’s 13-game point streak ended on Jan. 15.
Post-break games are pivotal
So we aren’t ready to jump ship yet, and the Kraken front office shouldn’t be cutting any ties either. But… BUT… the games after the All-Star pause and bye week will be make or break. The Kraken need to get out of the gate hot after this hiatus, or the time to sell will creep up very quickly.
Thinking back to last season, the Kraken were starting to sputter, having won eight in a row, then dropping four of their last seven before this break. But they won the last game before the All-Star Game, 3-1 over Columbus and went away with good feelings.
They exited the break with a five-game road trip to the East Coast (similar to what they face starting on Feb. 10 this season) and stunk, dropping four of five on the trip and seven out of 10 from Feb. 7 to Feb. 26. If the Kraken do something similar after the break this season, they will be cooked. So, those games on the other side are critical.
How are you feeling, folks? What’s your response to Elmo?
Darren Brown
Darren Brown is the Chief Content Officer at soundofhockey.com and the host of the Sound Of Hockey Podcast. He is a member of the PHWA and is also usually SOH’s Twitter intern (but please pretend you don’t know that). Follow him @DarrenFunBrown and @sound_hockey or email darren@soundofhockey.com.
How am I feeling? Not one of those five shutouts was to a team that is currently sitting in a playoff spot… not one. They need to either add some scoring NOW or start selling. The trade deadline will be too late. I dug into February in John’s Monday Musing comments and there’s not a lot to be enthused about coming out of the break.
How am I feeling? Disappointed.
I was already worried about February. A win last night would have helped. Another stellar performance by Joey… wasted.
Speaking of… you left out my favorite part of Hakstol’s answer.
“Over the last 23 games we’ve dug ourselves out of a hole.”
They lost in overtime 23 games ago. They got shut out 22 games ago. Why not “the last 20 games”, or 21. Why 23? Because 23 games ago is exactly when Joey took over in net. It seems clear to me that coach thinks Joey is the “shovel” and not some newfound commitment to “protecting the slot” or “playing the right way”. The fact that Grubauer got zero starts in the last four games is, I believe, a strong statement. The look on Hakstol’s face when asked about playing Joey so much… priceless.
Go Kraken!!!
I think it’s pretty clear their play is not indicative of a playoff-caliber team. Could we sneak in? Maybe, but even if they do we’re not really a threat. What we have is a team that has to be firing on all cylinders to succeed, and right now we just aren’t. It’s only through the emergence of Daccord that we’re even sniffing at the playoffs. Without improvement from Burakovsky and Matty, specifically, I don’t think we get in.
Kartye, Yamamoto, and Beniers are basically the same player right now: gritty/gutty, but not a scoring threat. So many guys are playing one line higher than they should, just based on their performance. That has to be fixed, either by the players upping their game, or by bringing in from the outside. None of the offseason moves have really improved the team.
IMO, there shouldn’t be a fire sale, but the team should be looking at all offers for our UFAs, with the thought of clearing space to insert some of the younger guys when those spaces become available. Bringing up Evans to have him sit in the press box is not helping anyone, for example.
We need one stud on offense, and one on defense, to make it to the next level, which I consider to be “legitimate playoff team that can do some damage, and you never know…”. Until that happens – which might not be realistic in just one offseason! – we need to be satisfied with what we are: an expansion team trying to transition the organization from guys acquired through the expansion draft, to one that is using players that are a product of their farm system.
Hopefully we can bring in a stud on offense this offseason to help us along with that transition. If they nickel and dime, and we don’t get at least one improvement on offense OR defense. I will start to get concerned. Until then, I’m going to assume they know what they’re doing.
Problem is there is no free-agent solution for the next year. We need to get prospects or picks for as many of our FAs as possible (this includes Tatar and Yammo) and then make an offer next season to a cap-strapped team or one looking to offload a proven offensive player wanting out.
That was beyond disappointing, and it felt like it started in the last period of the Columbus game. I know the team is trying to balance on ice success to keep season ticket holders happy (so they re-up) with creating a path to the NHL for prospects, but it doesn’t feel like it’s working. As mentioned in a previous comment, even if they sneak into the playoffs they aren’t going anywhere. I think it’s time to take the long view and say goodbye to some wonderful players that just aren’t part of the future and get something in return.
I would only “sell” if they feel they are being offered good value for players. I feel like the pipeline of players in the minors is percolating nicely and the team seems to draft well, at least that is what my Kraken tinted glasses see. The future is bright.
My biggest somewhat random wish is for Beniers to work like a maniac with nutritionists and trainers to add at least 10 pounds. I think he is getting pushed around enough it affects his game and opens him up to injury.
As the Olczyks keep pointing out, the Kraken don’t shoot enough pucks on net and it seems to overpass. Lots more scoring opportunities occur from firing more pucks on net. This would generate more rebounds and scoring chances. The team needs to shake off some of its offensive passivity.
There’s a balance to this — getting pucks to the net is useless if all the players are around the perimeter, where they love to be as they pass around the boards for 20 seconds before attempting a shot. Need to have netfront presence and players in the slot hunting for rebounds.
BUT your overpassing issue is also correct. Seems like they miss out on a lot of B+/A- chances in favor of passing for very low probability A/A+ chances, and it rarely works out. Yanni seems to be a bad offender in this regard. Matty, Wennberg, and Burky also would much rather pass than shoot. The only players who are looking to shoot are McCann and Bjorky. This team needs more shooters and scorers.
Lastly, can we dissect what’s going on with Matty this year? Seems like he falls down every single shift, either by getting knocked over by a soft breeze or just getting his feet tangled. He is also this team’s punching bag, and he has no idea how to handle it. He needs to put on some muscle and work on his skating. And the answer isn’t to get some useless goon on the 4th line, it’s to make Matty better, cause if this is who he is (a 30-40 pt middle 6 player), then the Kraken are in big trouble.
Gotta sell now and then add in the off-season. We’ve got a good base and some good prospects in the pipeline so there’s potential in the coming years. All of this talk about “hoping to turn it on to make the playoffs” is off base. This team isn’t good enough to make a serious run. Sure, strange things can happen but having a strategy that relies too much on hope and luck rather than skill/talent is a terrible idea for a franchise and I don’t think Ron is that kind of GM.
The Kraken are 14th in the league in Corsi* for per 60 5v5. The Conference leading Bruins and Canucks are 23rd and 24th respectively. Additionally, Vancouver leads the league at 5v5 scoring at 3.15 G/60. Boston is not far behind at 5th and 2.86 G/60. Seattle is 24th at 2.36.
I don’t think simply “throwing the puck at the net” is going to lead to more wins. 96% of Seattle’s shot attempts do not result in goals. But when Eddie O says “need to shoot the puck right there” he’s talking about “low-danger” shots. “Throw the puck at the net”. The Kraken’s low-danger shooting percentage is 3.17 – the shots that are “on net”. Considering Seattle’s shots on net are just a bit under half of total shot attempts, we should expect about 1.6% of these “Eddie O” shots to turn into goals. But wait, what about all those rebounds? The league average expected rebound shots per save is around 4%. If these rebounds are all “high-danger” chances then we should expect something around .820 SV% against… leading to .75 goals on every 100 shots on goal OR .375 goals on every 100 shot attempts.
So 1.6 plus .375 gives us roughly 2 more goals per 100 low-danger shot attempts. If we took ten more of these a game we’d be even with the league leading Hurricanes in shot attempts – and Seattle would move from 23rd to 17th with the added .2 G/60. That should lead to more wins – except – what about the 98 shots that don’t go in? More often than not, the puck goes the other way: less puck possession, less quality shots, less goals for, more goals against.
Olczyk says “put the puck on net and good things can happen” – most of what happens when you throw it in there and cross your fingers is it goes the other way. Unfortunately, I think the game Eddie is talking about it the game he played… the game has changed.
And by the way… last season’s 100 point Kraken team had 3 less shot attempts per game than this team.
Go Kraken!!!
*Corsi – Any shot attempt (goals, shots on net, misses and blocks) outside of the shootout.
Interesting points. Instead of Eddie’s O’s suggestions, what would you like Hakstol to have the team do to break through more offensively(besides bringing back Sprong and gang and the ghost of Matty Beniers)?
What should the Kraken do rather than “throw the puck on net”? Interesting you mention Daniel Sprong. No, I don’t think bringing back Sprong is the answer – I think a lot of it was the money – but there’s an interesting discussion to be had there.
On the Patreon Mailbag – I hope I’m not violating Patreon protocol here – I asked about the Kraken being in on Zegras. The panel was spit on this, but the there was a common discussion point around the topic… “he doesn’t fit the Kraken’s ‘defensive-minded’ structure”. The discussion then turned to Sprong as an example. Solid scoring threat, but doesn’t play defense… and here’s the problem… we don’t have scoring… even though we may have the “best” finisher in the league.
Last season Jared McCann edged out 2023 Hart Trophy winner Conor McDavid for most goals scored above expected at over 19. His .95 xG/60 was very nearly half of his 1.86 G/60 – that is finishing! This season’s he’s 7th in the league and down to 173% of expected… still outstanding… any yet.
The Kraken are 20th in the league in expected goals… and even with one of the best finishers in the league…they’re 24th in actual goals.
On the other side, the Kraken are No.5 in both goals against, and expected goals against. The four teams ahead of them in goals against: Jets, Panthers, Bruins, Canucks. So obviously were good defensively… and not so good on offense, especially when it comes to finishing. The question I ask – are they limiting offensive opportunity by focusing too exclusively on defense? Or, are they simply not offensively talented enough to score consistently?
So what should they do? Obviously score more, but relying on luck – throwing the puck at the net – is not a legitimate strategy. Relying on luck leads to very “streaky” results. Remind you of anyone? They need to add scoring, period. The amount of improvement they can realize on the defensive side is very limited. They have got to start scoring… by either working the forecheck to get more quality scoring chances, “cheating” for offense, or by bringing in better shooters. The “career years” that everyone had last season are not the norm and this team already works hard… so they need to add.
And this is why I think they should be in on Zegras. Right now he is certainly a “distressed asset” and possibly the sort of player who seldom becomes available. Also, he was a defensive liability last season – on the absolute worst defense in the league – and it wasn’t even close. Maybe his “offense first” style isn’t such a liability on a team that actually plays defense. In their first full season in the league, Beniers and Zegras put up almost identical counting numbers, but when you play for the Ducks, you’re -21.
In the short term, what should they do? Sell. Going forward, they have got to add scoring, not just throw the puck at the net. That’s just what I think.
If Eberle, Wennberg, and/or Schultz aren’t a part of long term plans, I’d love to see them dangled out there for someone like Kakko. Could be a buy-low situation where a guy with the physical tools needs a change of scenery and a chance to play a larger role.
That needs to be the priority for this deadline and upcoming offseason. Obviously you wanna field the best lineup possible, but this is the perfect time to buy low. Imagine if they took a run at Brock Boeser last year or two while he was struggling and on the trade block?
Pretty much everyone’s comments are right on. Focus on the future, so sell off the UFAs not likely to re-sign like Wennberg, Bellemare, and Schultz for 2024 picks to playoff bound teams who just need that one role player. Look what Lindholm brought and there are not many centers out there, so maybe Wennberg could bring back two picks. Bring up Wright and Evans and Fleury to finish the season.
WTH people !! sell – buy blah blah. Lets address the real problem – coaching !!!! Kings just fired Mclellan for a bad January !!! we wont fire Hakstol for bad seasons so to me Francis is also part of the problem. Yes we need to trade if possible for our aging FA before they leave and we get no
thing but deal with the main problem first.