The Seattle Kraken fell short of the ultimatum I set in last week’s Monday Musings of grabbing five out of a possible six points, but I can’t be upset at the effort. The boys came away with gutsy wins against the Boston Bruins and Pittsburgh Penguins but fell short of gaining a point versus the Edmonton Oilers in a Saturday afternoon matinee.
This might have been the best three-game effort the Kraken have brought this season against some high-quality opponents. From top to bottom, the team is really bought in and showing the desperation to stay in the playoff hunt right now.
Unfortunately, the Kraken woke up on Monday nine points out of a wild card spot and again looking at a logjam of four teams they would need to climb over in the standings to get into the postseason. Getting in is looking less likely every day, but if the Kraken can play the rest of the season like this, I still think they have a shot.
Remaining schedule
The next four games will be the toughest four games remaining on the schedule. Even if they only manage four points of the eight available, the Kraken might be ok to stay in it as long as either the Los Angeles Kings or Nashville Predators start to lose a bit more than they win. Over the next four games, the Kraken have one game against the Calgary Flames, two against the Winnipeg Jets, and then one game against the Vegas Golden Knights. After those four games, the schedule gets easier with six out of the next eight games being against teams that are mostly eliminated from playoff contention.
Alex Wennberg
With the trade deadline this coming Friday, I worry this might be the last week we see Alex Wennberg wearing the Seattle Kraken jersey. Regular readers will know that I love Wennberg and what he has brought to this franchise. He was one of the first free agents to sign in Seattle before the team ever took the ice. I am always blown away with his play and patience with the puck, and I marvel at his footwork and board play.
I will never forget the below play during the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs last season. A lot of the highlights won’t show his contributions to the goal, but the whole sequence doesn’t happen without his board work.
He had another great play on Monday that will go underappreciated, when he gained the zone, and as five Bruins set up to defend, Wennberg delivered a soft pass to empty ice that Will Borgen. Borgen swiftly stepped into it for a one-timer that Oliver Bjorkstrand tipped by Linus Ullmark.
If this is truly his last week or even season with the Seattle Kraken, he will be missed. He currently leads all Kraken forwards in ice time, and he plays on the power play, penalty kill, and is often deployed in key defensive situations.
Hard sell, soft sell, or hold
What the Kraken do at the trade deadline is still anyone’s guess. I found Pierre LeBrun’s take on what the Kraken might do with their two biggest assets on expiring deals humorous. LeBrun’s take was the Kraken could re-sign Wennberg and Jordan Eberle, or they might re-sign one of them, or they might do nothing. So, they could do anything.
We published a story on the topic a couple weeks ago, in case you want to read up on that and hear what the players themselves said about the situation.
There are three trade deadline scenarios that could play out:
- A hard sell would be if the Kraken trade either Alexander Wennberg and/or Jordan Eberle.
- A soft sell would be if the team traded Justin Schultz and/or Tomas Tatar
- Holding would be doing nothing or moving a depth piece in the system.
The fate of what they do might come down to the back-to-back games to start this week. Two wins, and they might hold. Two losses, and I think a hard sell will be kicked into motion. I do think there is a way this team could make the playoffs even with a “soft-sell,” where maybe it trades only Schultz and has Ryker Evans slot in for him the rest of the way (just as an example).
Other Musings
- After a successful goalie interference challenge last Monday against the Bruins, the Kraken are two for two in goalie interference challenges this season. The success rate for goalie challenges league wide is 63 percent.
- The Boston game was the 17th overtime game of the season for Seattle. That tied the full-season total from 2022-23, so the next overtime game this season will mean the most OT games in a single season for the Kraken. Here is how overtime games have broken down by seasons.
- If the Kraken start the week with two regulation losses, the season is probably cooked, and I would appreciate people checking in on me on Wednesday morning.
- Tuesday’s game against the Winnipeg Jets will be the first time the Kraken square off against the Jets this season. Winnipeg is the only team in the league the Kraken have not faced this season, but they will play two in a row against them this week.
- The Kraken are still winless at home on Saturdays this season. The loss to Edmonton pushed their Saturday home record to 0-5-2. The Kraken have two more Saturday home games remaining this season.
- It is great to see Philipp Grubauer getting in a groove. He has a .942 save percentage with a 4-1-0 record since coming back from injury. Outside of last season’s playoffs, this is probably his best stretch of games he has played with the Kraken.
Player performances
Morgan Geekie (BOS) – The former Seattle Kraken and Tri-City American had his first career hat-trick against the Vegas Golden Knights on Thursday. We continue to root for Geekie as long as he isn’t playing against the Kraken.
Philipp Grubauer (SEA) – Grubauer had a .944 save percentage and a 2-1-0 record on the week including a shutout against the Penguins, his first of the season.
Jagger Firkus (MJW/SEA) and Carson Rehkopf (KIT/SEA) – Both players might be the most mentioned players in the Monday Musings for the season. Both Seattle Kraken prospects are having outstanding years for their respective clubs, and both eclipsed the 50-goal mark on Sunday.
Goal of the week
For those that might have missed it, we had two outstanding guests on the Sound Of Hockey Podcast this week with Piper Shaw and Alison Lukan in studio. The episode was packed with tomfoolery and hijinks, but there was also plenty of Kraken insight, so give it a listen.
One thing Alison called out was Andre Burakovsky’s actions that helped with the Vince Dunn goal against Boston. The breakdown is in her below tweet.
Chart of the week
Also, on the podcast we discussed a different framing of shots and shot attempts, called ‘shots on target.’ It’s just shots on goal, but in context of shot attempts, you could widen the lens to evaluate how many shot attempts actually get to the goalie. So, naturally, I investigated it.
I originally started just looking at percentage of shots on target, and that showed Seattle had the second-lowest percentage of shot attempts that are on target. When I saw Carolina below the Kraken, I felt it needed additional context since Carolina is one of the better teams in the league this season. I then added total shot attempts per game to help add more color to the story.
This was pulled together in about 30 minutes on Monday morning, so there is still a lot more to dig into here, but it is an interesting perspective to start evaluating some of the shooting performances across the NHL.
The week ahead
I have been implying the Kraken’s situation (in terms of making the playoffs) has been dire for a while. They have been staying afloat, but the Predators have really started to separate from the rest of the pack and currently have a nine-point advantage on the Kraken for the last playoff spot. Seattle still has two games in hand but will need to climb over a few teams, even if Nashville starts to falter. I am also ready to lock the Kings into a playoff spot at this point, which only leaves that Nashville spot.
The first half of March has the Kraken facing some quality opponents, and that kicks off this week with a game Monday against an equally desperate Calgary Flames team and two games against the Central Division leaders, the Winnipeg Jets. Anything less than four points and at least one against Calgary might sink these Kraken playoff dreams in season three. The team has been playing well and still shows a lot of compete that has me clinging to a few last shreds of hope.
As always, thank you for making it this far. If you have questions, thoughts, or reactions, feel free to leave a note in the comments and I will do my best to respond and engage.