In last week’s Monday Musings, I mentioned that the Seattle Kraken would need at least four out of six available points against Detroit, Vancouver, and Minnesota, with at least one point coming against the Wild. That did not happen.
It was looking good heading into Saturday night’s matchup against the Wild. The Kraken were coming off one of their more impressive games of the season with a 5-2 win over the Vancouver Canucks, and it seemed like this team was starting to play with the type of purpose that would be required to contend for one of the last playoff spots.
Heading into Saturday night, the Kraken were also 9-1-0 in the last 10 games in which they scored first, so when Vince Dunn made it 1-0 just 36 seconds in, there was a reason to feel confident. Alas, the Wild went on to score the next five goals and cruise to a 5-2 win over the Kraken.
It was not the effort you wanted to see for a very important game in the race for one of the wild card spots. On top of that, the Kings, Predators, and Flames all won to either extend their leads on the Kraken or, in the case of Calgary, jump over the Kraken in the standings.
I’ve said it before, and Darren said it in Three Takeaways: the challenge is not necessarily the point gap between the Kraken and the last wild card spot, it is the number of teams ahead of them. The Kraken are now seven points back of the Nashville Predators with a game in hand for that last playoff spot, but there are also three more teams (St. Louis, Minnesota, and Calgary) they would need to jump over to get back in. That is a tall task.
Despite the poor showing on Saturday night, the Kraken are currently sitting with about a 20-percent chance of making the playoffs. That is better than I would have expected their chances to be, but if a week from now, they are still sitting on a 20-percent chance, it is highly likely they will sell off some of their pending UFA’s at the March 8 trade deadline.
Power play pressure
The Kraken had a season-high five power play opportunities on Saturday and came up empty on all five. The power play has been playing well of late with a goal in each of the prior three games. Despite coming away with no goals against the Wild, there were several power-play opportunities where the Kraken maintained offensive-zone possession, and that created shot opportunities, so I’m not terribly concerned about this particular area.
I don’t have the data, but there were a couple opportunities where the Kraken maintained offensive possession for the first 90 or so seconds of the respective power plays. If the Kraken can maintain this type of pressure in the upcoming games, the goals will eventually follow. Sustained offensive pressure can force the opposing penalty-killing unit to fatigue, leading to defensive breakdowns and increased vulnerability to scoring chances.
Shot quantity and locations for top line
One thing that has been going well is the play and production of the reunited Matty Beniers, Jordan Eberle, and Jared McCann line. Coach Dave Hakstol reunited the trio after the loss to the Philadelphia Flyers on Feb. 10. That trio has at least one goal in each of the last five games and has a combined for 10 goals over that span.
Hakstol mentioned that they were struggling to get inside shot opportunities at the beginning of the season but are having much more success lately.
The rink map shows a lot more shot attempts inside over the last six games from that group compared to how they started the season.
That top line is also generating more shot attempts over the last six games compared to the start of the season, averaging over three more shot attempts per game.
Other Musings:
- Marc-Andre Fleury is now 5-1-1 against the Seattle Kraken. Only Stuart Skinner has more wins against the Kraken in their franchise history. Edmonton comes to town Saturday. 😐
- The Kraken are now 0-4-2 on Saturday games at Climate Pledge Arena this season. They have three more home Saturday games for the rest of the season.
- The Kraken were shorthanded six times on Saturday night against the Wild, which was tied for second as the most times they have been shorthanded in a single game in franchise history. The Wild converted on two of the six opportunities. This was out of character for the Kraken, as they are generally one of the more disciplined teams in the league.
- Saturday night’s game against the Wild is the 14th time the Seattle Kraken have been down by three goals in a game this season. They have lost all 63 games in franchise history when they have fallen behind by three goals. I keep telling myself that one day, a three-goal comeback will happen, and it will be epic when it does.
- Somehow the Kraken have a 2-2-1 all-time record against Boston.
- Oliver Bjorkstrand has not scored a goal in nine games, his longest drought of the season.
- The Moose Jaw Warriors come though the Puget Sound over the weekend, which brings opportunities to see Kraken prospect Jagger Firkus. He will be in Everett on Friday night, and on Saturday, you can do the double-header with the Edmonton Oilers at the Kraken at 1 pm, then Moose Jaw at the Seattle Thunderbirds down in Kent at 7 pm.
- Speaking of prospects, Scott Wheeler from The Athletic published the Seattle Kraken’s prospect rankings a little over a week ago. There weren’t a lot of surprises. Shane Wright was ranked No. 1, Carson Rehkopf No. 2, and Jagger Firkus was No. 3. If you have a subscription, it’s a fun read; just remember prospects are like chips on a roulette table. Most prospects face long odds, and there are probably only a couple of real winners in there.
Player performances
David Goyette (SBY) – Goyette has an active 14-game point streak and has four goals and three assists over his last three games.
Carson Rehkopf (KIT) – Rehkopf continues to score in bunches in the OHL. He had nine points over three games, including the below six-point game on Saturday.
Andrei Loshko (ROU) – I’ve mentioned Andrei Loshko before, but the fourth-round pick from the 2023 NHL Draft tends to fly under the radar. He had three goals in two games for the Rouyn-Noranda Huskies in the QMJHL.
You don’t see that everyday
I saw the stick break at the game on Saturday, but I didn’t see McCann’s ninja like skills until the next day.
The week ahead
With the NHL trade deadline fast approaching, the Kraken find themselves at a pivotal juncture in their season. This feels like a do-or-die type week. To remain in contention for a playoff spot, they must secure at least five out of the six points available in their three games this week. Failure to do so will realistically eliminate any postseason hopes and could trigger selling assets at the deadline. It will not be easy, as the Kraken face Boston on Monday, Pittsburgh on Thursday, and Edmonton on Saturday.
Here is a look at the rest of the wild card contenders schedule this week:
There are several games around the league with wild card contenders facing off against each other. That further illustrates why it is so challenging to jump over multiple teams, as one of the two will get two points, and there’s always the chance of an OT loser point.
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Thanks. Go Kraken!
All the hockey writers around Seattle are doing great detailed reporting. Thanks for the great effort. We’ve certainly arrived as a legit NHL market in terms of the reporting. BTW, did the Athletic ever hire a Kraken writer? I dropped my subscription when the position went vacant for months and months.
No they did not. The guy who covers the Canucks sometimes sometimes moonlights as a Kraken writer and writes bits of Kraken stuff, but not much.
I still like a lot of their national stuff (plus baseball and football) so I still have my subscription. I can tell you that the Athletic simulation machine currently has the Kraken at 10% to make the playoffs, behind the Preds, Wild and Flames (although for some reason not the Blues, who are at only 6%).
I subscribed to the Athletic, but canceled because of my frustrations with the coverage. I still have access though because I have an NYT subscription.
It wasn’t so much because they lost Ryan Clark – who covered the Kraken – and never replaced him. It was because the occasional comments or articles they did have were so uninformed. The Athletic has had a real tough go in the modern media climate and their original Chicago/Toronto effort to be a “league wide” alternative across all of sports has succumbed to the “evil” of globalism… they are now owned by the New York Times. It was pretty obvious even before the “takeover” that they were “reallocating”.
The Canucks writer – Thomas Drance – there are a ton of things that annoy me about that guy, especially his laugh. But outside of SOH and some of the folks at ROOT (Lukan) few people are actually as insightful as he is when he writes on the Kraken. It’s pretty obvious he follows the team closely.
Coincidentally, the Athletic had an article today breaking down Kraken/Rangers trade prospects and specifically Wennberg.
Again, I think Drance has a very solid grasp of the Seattle hockey team – players and more. If you get a chance it’s worth a read. It reinforces a lot of what John has already said on SOH, but it’s the sort of things you typically don’t hear elsewhere.
Go Kraken!!!
Also, I’ve run Eberle/Wennberg/Tatar = Kakko/2025 1st through the Capfriendly Trade Machine.
With some retention, it works.
Could you list what Scott Wheeler had after Wright, Rehkopf, and Firkus? Interested to know where Goyette, Fisker-Molgaard, Sale, and Nyman fit in, as well as the defense picks over the last three drafts?
…after the top three, in order:
Goyette
Sale
Evans
Nelson
Nyman
F-M
Winterton
Price
Dragicevic
Ottavainen
Morris
Melanson
Thanks. I would like to know people’s opinions on the NHL season they believe each of these 15 prospects becomes a full time NHL player (if ever). I going to assume Wright and Evans are 2024-25. But how about the other 13 players?
No Musings on the goaltending?
Even after the Wild game and Joey getting the hook, I still think the Kraken are solid in net… but do we have a “goalie controversy” brewing?
In Boston Joey had an incredible 3+ GSAx performance, but Grubauer gets the start tonight against the Bruins. After the start against Minnesota and an practice as reported
Oops… tapped “reply” on accident.
Poor start and a rough Friday practice, Joey has hit a rough patch. But I think the expectations from Grubauer should be tempered.
In his three appearances he has put up very good “baseline” numbers; however, in each game he has committed the same mistake that makes me question his play.
After the Islanders game I went on at length – as usual – about how well I thought he played in that game and his only true mistake was getting caught out wide, once. If not for a save by Borgen, it would have resulted in a goal.
Against the Canucks, same thing, to the other side, only this time it results in his stick getting jammed in the net and eventually leads to a goal.
In relief against the Wild, same thing again, and only a bit of luck prevents the wraparound.
To me it seems like there’s more. After a very clean game against NYI, some of the “old tendencies” look to be returning… like ending up sprawled out on the ice.
After a nice run, it’s beginning to look like stormy seas ahead in the crease once again.
Another “biggest game of the season” tonight.
Go Kraken!!!