It’s been two weeks since the last installment of Monday Musings, and while I won’t delve into the details of each of the seven games that have since passed, it’s safe to say it’s been quite the roller coaster ride. We witnessed some lackluster performances against the Sabres and the Canadiens, hard-fought battles versus the Coyotes and Golden Knights, two victories against the Ducks, and a game where Seattle showed heart but ultimately fell short against the Stars. Emotionally, I’m coping a bit better with the losses now, but there’s no denying the joy that comes with the wins, regardless of their significance in the grand scheme of things.
Player signings and timing
The Seattle Kraken recently inked one of their second-round selections from the 2023 NHL Entry Draft, Lukas Dragicevic, following the conclusion of the Tri-City Americans’ season. This aligns with the Kraken’s strategy of signing many of their draft picks a season after their selection. Likewise, we anticipate Oscar Fisker-Mølgaard to follow suit over the next couple of weeks, now that HV71’s season has ended.
HV71 secured its spot in the SHL for next season after a crucial Game 7 victory, sparing themselves relegation against IK Oskarshamn. Mølgaard, another second-round pick from the 2023 draft, showcased his talent with an impressive season in the SHL. While we anticipate Mølgaard’s signing, unlike Dragicevic, we don’t foresee him joining the Coachella Valley squad for the remainder of the season.
European prospects typically make the transition to North America at the end of their respective seasons if the Kraken intend to have them play in North America the following campaign. Our projection suggests Mølgaard will spend another year honing his skills in the SHL before potentially making the move across the Atlantic.
Similarly, Jani Nyman wrapped up his season last week when his team, Ilves, bowed out to KalPa in the Liiga quarterfinals. Nyman showcased his talent throughout the season, tallying an impressive 43 points in 48 games, earning him the under-20 scoring title and the coveted Red Bull helmet. Having signed his standard entry-level contract (ELC) last year as part of the 2022 Kraken draft class, there’s speculation about his future plans. While nothing is certain, there’s a growing anticipation that he may transition to North America for the upcoming season, potentially joining the Coachella Valley Firebirds to finish out the current season.
Here is a look at the status of all the Kraken draft picks by year and round.
In addition to Mølgaard, I would anticipate Carson Rehkopf to sign whenever the Kitchener Rangers season is complete.
Forecasting the draft picks
I recently received a thought-provoking question from a friend: How many players drafted by the Kraken will become regulars on the team in three years? It’s the kind of inquiry that tends to surface when your team finds itself out of playoff contention.
The data reveals an intriguing reality: only 80 percent of first-round draft picks manage to accumulate more than 100 games in the NHL. For second-round picks, that number drops to 50 percent, and it dwindles to less than 20 percent for those selected beyond the third round. Despite our enthusiasm for some of the draft picks, the odds remain steep for most of them to secure substantial NHL playing time. Assessing which players will succeed and stick in the NHL involves applying probabilities to all Kraken prospects. However, this method doesn’t offer a foolproof prediction of when they’ll make their NHL debut, and it’s worth noting that players may also be traded by the Kraken, further complicating matters.
Using a rough estimation based on the player’s draft round and potential, out of the current 28 drafted prospects, we project that approximately 8.2 will accumulate 100 games or more in the NHL. This rough proxy can help gauge the number of Kraken-drafted prospects likely to feature on the team in three years. While it may seem like the Kraken have excelled in drafting compared to other teams, this perception could be influenced by confirmation bias. To make a more definitive statement, we’ll need a few more years of data to validate this notion.
Shane Wright call-up
In case it slipped under your radar, the Kraken made a notable move on Sunday by recalling Shane Wright. This marks Shane’s second call-up to the Kraken this season, with his first stint occurring back in November for three games.
His performance in Coachella Valley this season has been impressive, fueling excitement about his potential at the highest level. From recent observations, particularly in terms of his two-way play, Shane appears to excel, demonstrating deft puck movement and a quick release, whether shooting or passing to teammates.
While I’d love to offer insights into how his skills will translate to the NHL, the reality is that there’s limited exposure to 20-year-old centers playing in the AHL. Nonetheless, my expectation is that he’ll remain with the team for at least five games, affording us the opportunity to witness his talents in action during the last two home games of the season next week.
Other musings
- With the departure of Alex Wennberg and the absence of Vince Dunn, the power play has looked very different. There seems to be a greater emphasis on getting the puck down low for either a touch pass to the slot or sliding a pass across the crease. It seems to be working. The Kraken have a 22.2 power-play percentage since March 3. That is slightly better than the 21.2 percent they had prior to Wennberg’s departure.
- One of the more noticeable elements of the power play recently is the change of shot location of Oliver Bjorkstrand and Jared McCann. They are still getting their shots; they are just getting it from different locations.
- The Kraken goaltenders still have the second highest save percentage in the league since Dec. 1.
- In case anyone missed it, the Kraken will be the only NHL team in the league without a home win on a Saturday this season, and I have no theories on why.
- Goal scoring continues to be a challenge. The Kraken have scored two goals or less in seven out of their last nine games.
- Alison Lukan beat me to it by five days, but the 10 power play opportunities against the Anaheim game on Thursday was a franchise record. The previous record was eight against Vancouver in the inaugural season.
- The Ducks are far and away the most undisciplined team in the league, while the Kraken are one of the most disciplined.
- The Kraken allowed their ninth goal of the season within five seconds of a face-off on Saturday. We commonly refer to these as ‘face-off goals against.’ They are second in the NHL at allowing face-off goals against this season. The second goal Dallas scored was nine seconds after a face-off.
- I have watched a lot of Liiga (Finland) and SHL (Sweden) via their streaming platforms. The picture quality is so superior to footage of the AHL and most of the NHL Regional Sport Networks. Why can’t we get this kind of quality for North America? I understand why it might be a challenge for the CHL, but the other leagues have the money and viewers to make their products better.
- Speaking of Scandinavian hockey leagues, Kraken goalie prospect Niklas Kokko will be playing an elimination game in the Liiga playoffs when his team, Lahden Pelicans, squares off against HIFK in a Game 7 matchup Tuesday evening in Finland. Kokko has a .935 save percentage and 1.58 goals against average in these playoffs. He just turned 20 years old.
Player performances
David Goyette (SBY/SEA) – The regular-season points leader in the OHL had a Gordie Howe hat trick in the Sudbury Wolves’ second OHL playoff game. The Wolves lead that series 2-0 and are headed to Sudbury for Games 3 and 4.
Joey Daccord (SEA) – posted a .951 save percentage over the last week with a goals against average of 1.01 in that stretch.
Visa Vedenpää (HER/SEA) – The sixth-round goalie selected in the 2023 NHL Entry Draft had a 39-save shutout on March 27 playing for Hermes in the second round of the Mestis league playoffs.
Goal of the week
Shooters shoot. Check out Goyette’s goal from a crazy game against Mississauga on Saturday.
Chart of the week
Furthering the discussion about the Kraken draft picks, here is a look at the number of draft picks playing for the teams that drafted them. I leveraged the CapFriendly.com depth charts so there could be players not reflected in the data if they are currently out of the lineup.
What to watch for
Shane Wright. There are not a lot of obvious roster changes next season, but you can probably lock Shane into a spot right now. I don’t think we will be able to extrapolate much from this stint with the Kraken, but my hope is we see the strides he has made by developing in the AHL this season. It would be great to see a goal or two, but I am eager to see how he moves the puck and how he plays defensively. Hopefully, he gets some special teams opportunities.
We are getting close to offseason mode where we will be digging into the draft, prospects, what went wrong, and a host of other content ideas we have brewing. If there are areas you want us to dig into, please let us know.
You’re so right about the quality of the AHL broadcasts. Every year I’ve tuned in for their free intro weekend, and every year I’ve said “I’m not paying for this”. Really, really poor.
Interesting with Shane Wright. I’ve heard so many times “it will blow a year on his contract” …. apparently getting him into the NHL is more important? Care to comment John?
Take my opinion with a grain of salt because I have no visibility in the Kraken decision-making criteria but I don’t think getting him three more games in the NHL will have any material impact on his development. IMHO, not burning a year is important to the team. It will give them more flexibility for one more year and that has value when figuring out the roster in a couple years. The counter to that is you don’t want to upset the player and create a bad relationship. I don’t know how much of that is true, but the media sure likes to talk about it, particularly around Shane Wright.
If it was my decision, based on the information I have, I do not burn a year of his ELC and he would only play five games for the remainder of the season.
If they blow a whole year of eligibility to get him a couple extra games my opinion of Kraken leadership will be irrevocably damaged.
He’s got 6 games in the NHL before we blow a year. We’re almost certainly not going to do that. Whether we blow his Calder eligibility is another question.
John,
Where did it all go wrong?
I think a lot of people will be tempted to say “the fourth line”… but at 5v5 this team is top five in the league in save percentage and bottom five in shooting percentage. Both those numbers are such a huge departure from last season’s 100 point team, it’s hard to imagine it’s not something much more significant.
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I know it’s a little soon for the post-mortem, but the final regular season Monday Musings is just two weeks away. Looking ahead to Monday after next, I’d be curious what your musings are on this…
Where did it all go wrong?
Go Kraken!!!
It probably won’t be in a musings post but I want to do a deep dive on scoring because that seems to be the biggest candidate for what went wrong. (biggest drop in goals per game across the league)
Not to get too ahead of ourselves but I am also wondering how the team makes meaningful changes for next season. I like the prospect pool but I am not sure any of them will make an impact next season.
Look forward to it, the drop off by Gourde, McCann, Beniers with long injuries by Burakovsky, Schwartz and Dunn combine for the huge scoring drop off. I will be interested to see if the data supports this theory.
How do you comment on where it went wrong and not mention the 3 months with $15 million of cap not playing?
Looking forward to the deep dive.
I don’t know if you subscribe to Corey Sznajder’s All Three Zones, but he has some interesting “tracking numbers” on there, especially when it comes to zone entries comparing last season to this season.
I think they obviously “over-performed” last season, but such significant changes in something like “entries” doesn’t seem like just a matter of luck or regression… but maybe it is.
Thanks again for Monday Musings.
Two things. Terrible injury luck and a regression to newly average shooting percent for almost anything.
The injuries did not help but they had them last season as well.
Last year we had some talent to trade but this year, only one trade. None of that talent has been significant for scoring and when you add waiver signings to the list. Scouting is getting over shadowed by scouting all around the league. Even Eli T. is dropped off. Coaches cannot coach winning teams with average players and when we lost a lot of last years players in free agency, and did not replace them with the same talent level, we will lose more games and lower our future to the Tatars of the league. Djdw00 has been on target most of the year.
I would love to see them cut the “meh” and bring up some young guys from the desert. Then pick up a scorer (Reinhart?) for a couple of years stint and get this team scoring. But what do I know? (zilch) Maybe that’s what I would like to see in a Musings report – who they should add to get things cookin’ in the fall if they went all in on a player.
” out of the current 28 drafted prospects, we project that approximately 8.2 will accumulate 100 games or more in the NHL.”
Let’s name names and see what we get as future NHLers over 100 games. From 2021, we should have Beniers, Evans, Winterton, and Ottavainen. From 2022, Wright, Firkus, Nyman, Kokko, Goyette, and Nelson. From 2023, Sale, Rehkopf, Fisker-Molgaard, and one of Dragicevic or Price. That is 14, just the right number to replace all the over 30 vets on the team and end up with a team of 20 somethings.
So can you please go beyond what the article stated and tell us which ones of those 14 will not reach 100 games. The only question marks I have might be about Winterton’s longevity and Sale breaking through in NA but the rest to me look like they should. And then of course we will have 9 more picks this year as well.
For the rest, Jugnauth has been doing well with Portland but hard to predict. MacDonald, no idea, same with Loshko. Don’t expect anything from rounds 5-7. Still 12-14 becoming NHLers would be just what the franchise needs, plus say 4 more from 2024’s draft. Would also like to hear if you have any insights on any of these lower picks.
It’s a formula based on the number of prospects in the system by round.
– 80% of first rounders play over 100 games
– 45% for second rounders
– 15% for thirds and fourths
– 10% for fifth and sixth
– 5% for sevenths
Matty has already played 100 games so he counts as 1 and then you simply multiply the number of prospects by the % and you get 7.2 players + 1 for Matty and it gets you to 8.2. Like I said, I think the Kraken prospect pool is better than average but that is probably a personal bias.
I think Rehkopf, Nyman, Evans, Winterton, Ottavainen, Loshko, and Kokko are above average in relation to their draft position but there is no guarantee that any of them do over 100 games. I need more time to evaluate Sale, Firkus, Goyette, Nelson, Dragicevic, and Price. I love Molgaard but he is probably performing as expected at this point. Everyone else I have less confidence in even making a prediction.
Agree on the 2024 picks but other than the first rounder, we probably won’t see any of them for 3+ years.
Unfortunately one of the things that lowers the number is injuries (regardless of draft position). One or two of those guys will suffer some sort of career ending injury in the CHL/AHL/NCAA/Europe and never make it. I also think that some European players just don’t make the transition to NA. The reasons are varied: 200×100 vs 200×85, language, family, and probably homesickness for some 18-22 year old. These two reasons alone probably drops those 14 to 10. Throw in one or two not being able to translate their success in the CHL/AHL/NCAA/Europe to the NHL and 8.2 is probably reasonable.
When I my own shallow dive into the prospects of the future, it is evident that free agency is not a strong point for this team. Too many $5 million dollar players playing like $1 million dollars with a few that we are stuck with for a few more years. We do not have enough in the system to make a talent jump. Lind and McCormick do not even get but a sniff of playing time and they are the leadin contributing players. We can say goodby to only 4 or 5 players whose contracts are up. Scoring has all but disappeared from this team and the future does not need sunglasses. It is more like a dim strobe light.