With a thrilling Stanley Cup Final Game 7 concluded, the Florida Panthers crowned NHL champions, and the Coachella Valley Firebirds finishing two wins short of a Calder Cup, the hockey world will now swiftly pivot from playoff mode to offseason wheeling and dealing. Some moves have already begun, with players like Pierre-Luc Dubois, Darcy Kuemper, Jacob Markstrom, and Linus Ullmark traded by their former clubs, but activity is set to escalate quickly.
Believe it or not, the 2024 NHL Draft is just three days away, with the first round on Friday and rounds two through seven on Saturday. Kraken Development Camp and the opening of unrestricted free agency also loom on July 1.
It’s no secret that Seattle aims to upgrade this summer and return to playoff contention for 2024-25. The Kraken’s most significant offseason moves are likely to occur over the next week or two, amid these tentpole events.
While we will cover the draft extensively in the coming days, discussing projections and Seattle’s plans to bolster its prospect pipeline, my current focus is on how the Kraken will enhance their team for next season. In the “Offseason To-Do List” article I wrote a few weeks ago, I proposed a hypothetical depth chart. I’m going to use that depth chart, fill in open spots with players I think the Kraken could target, and then compare how much of an impact those individuals could have for 2024-25.
Depth chart
My prediction remains that General Manager Ron Francis will seek to improve the team’s offense by acquiring two 20-plus goal scorers this offseason, either through trades or free agency. Assuming unrestricted free agents Pierre-Edouard Bellemare, Kailer Yamamoto, and Tomas Tatar do not return next season (though I would be in favor of Tatar returning, he saw reduced ice time under former coach Dave Hakstol and even landed in healthy scratch territory toward the end of the season), there are two spots in the lineup open for offensive upgrades.
Here’s a hypothetical forward lineup with placeholders for the aforementioned added 20-goal scorers:
Jared McCann // Matty Beniers // NEW 20-GOAL WINGER
Jordan Eberle // NEW 20-GOAL CENTER // Andre Burakovsky
Eeli Tolvanen // Shane Wright // Oliver Bjorkstrand
Tye Kartye // Yanni Gourde // Jaden Schwartz
Brandon Tanev
Recent rumors suggested Brandon Tanev and his one remaining year at a $3.5 million cap hit might be traded. If the team does add two players toward the top of the lineup, then having that big of a contract potentially filling the 13th forward role does not make sense. Meanwhile, Ryan Winterton’s standout performance in the Calder Cup Finals may have made Tanev even more expendable. This doesn’t mean I’m cementing Winterton into the Kraken lineup for next season, but younger, cheaper players than Tanev could fill the 12th or 13th forward roles.
On defense, we at Sound Of Hockey anticipate minimal changes, except for Justin Schultz likely departing via free agency after two seasons in the Pacific Northwest. Ryker Evans is expected to move onto the third pair full-time, though there’s potential for the team to add a depth defenseman to backfill for Schultz.
Vince Dunn // Adam Larsson
Jamie Oleksiak // Will Borgen
Brian Dumoulin // Ryker Evans
NEW SEVENTH DEFENSEMAN
With Seattle’s fourth line in 2023-24 proving mostly docile, and several players higher in the lineup experiencing reduced output, the Kraken scored a total of 214 goals, good for 29th in the league.
Filling open spots
Francis and company have various options to enhance the forward corps. Our own John Barr highlighted potential trade candidates such as Trevor Zegras, Martin Necas, Patrik Laine, Nikolaj Ehlers, and Tanner Jeannot in Monday Musings. My personal favorites from this list are Necas and Ehlers. John suggested Necas, a restricted free agent, might command north of $8 million AAV in his next contract, which could be more than Seattle is willing to pay. But at 25 years old, Necas is hitting his prime and could justify that kind of investment.
On the other hand, acquiring Ehlers, a 28-year-old winger who has been plagued by injuries at times, could lead to another type of financial risk. While speculative and potentially farfetched, I’ll pencil in Necas for the Kraken next season with an estimated $8 million salary.
If the Kraken acquire one scoring forward via trade, I anticipate the second coming through free agency, akin to what Francis swung two summers ago when he signed Andre Burakovsky and traded for Oliver Bjorkstrand.
This brings us to available UFAs, where players like Teuvo Teravainen, Jake DeBrusk, Sean Monahan, Anthony Duclair, and Warren Foegele could all make varying levels of sense for Seattle. Here, I’ll select DeBrusk, estimating a $5.5 million contract, a reasonable $1.5 million increase from his previous cap hit of $4 million.
Regardless of the forwards acquired, if the Kraken unload Tanev’s contract, re-sign Matty Beniers and Eeli Tolvanen (both RFA’s due for significant raises), and add approximately $14 million in total between the two forward additions, then Seattle should remain right around next season’s $88 million salary cap.
Impact of acquisitions
Adding two effective forwards isn’t just about the 40 or so goals they might contribute. It’s also about the ripple effect on the lineup when you strengthen the top end of your roster.
Let’s incorporate these forwards into the depth chart and consider the expected goal output for the Kraken in 2024-25, factoring in goal totals from the 2023-24 season and conservative estimates for rookies like Shane Wright, Winterton, and Evans.
Jared McCann (29) // Matty Beniers (15) // Jake DeBrusk (19)
Jordan Eberle (17) // Martin Necas (24) // Andre Burakovsky (7)
Eeli Tolvanen (16) // Shane Wright (12*) // Oliver Bjorkstrand (20)
Tye Kartye (11) // Yanni Gourde (11) // Jaden Schwartz (13)
Ryan Winterton (2*)
Vince Dunn (11) // Adam Larsson (4)
Jamie Oleksiak (2) // Will Borgen (3)
Brian Dumoulin (6) // Ryker Evans (5*)
(* = Rookie projection)
If the Kraken maintain the same mostly paltry production from returning players, add two forwards with 24 and 19 goals respectively, and get 22 goals from the three rookies I think could make the full-time NHL roster, that would bring Seattle’s goal total to 227. That would have only bumped the Kraken up one spot to 28th in the NHL in 2023-24.
However, this projection dramatically oversimplifies goal-scoring dynamics. Strengthening the top lines should also facilitate better matchups for other scorers throughout the lineup. This depth could potentially revive the offensive balance we saw in Seattle two seasons ago, not just by adding 13 goals over 82 games, but by encouraging offensive improvement from the whole team.
What are your thoughts? Could this offseason plan get the Kraken back into playoff contention?
Darren Brown
Darren Brown is the Chief Content Officer at soundofhockey.com and the host of the Sound Of Hockey Podcast. He is a member of the PHWA and is also usually SOH’s Twitter intern (but please pretend you don’t know that). Follow him @DarrenFunBrown and @sound_hockey or email darren@soundofhockey.com.
I love that lineup (addition of DeBrusk and Necas) and that looks like a Playoff team. And a fun one.
That’s a lot of money on the 4th line! I don’t see the point of Winterton being the 13th forward, that role is better filled with a cheaper FA and continuing to get him top minutes in CV. Also, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him as a part of the Necas trade. Can you speak to what the Kraken would offer? Finally, any chance Sprong comes back?
I’m not great at projecting trades, but I feel like a 1st and a productive player could be in the realm of possibility? Maybe? Funny you mentioned Sprong. As I was scanning available UFA’s and considering age and goal production, he jumped out at me as one of the slightly younger (27) options in the ~18-25 goal category. I’m just not convinced Francis loved him enough to bring him back, though. I think they could have had him back last season if they wanted him.
Gotta hope that a new Head Coach with experience working with younger players could potentially give the team a bump too, and maybe get Beniers performing back at his rookie year level and beyond? The impact of a new coach with new ideas can have a significant impact (just look at the Canucks this year).
I can’t see Tanev as a 13th forward, I’m thinking he’s in the lineup if he’s not traded. I could see the kraken keeping him until the deadline and using him on the third or fourth line until then but if they do want to upgrade to start this year trading him now makes a lot of sense.
I’d agree with Todd on the Winterton situation, it makes no sense development wise to have a young player with potential sitting in the box. Much better sending him to the valley to be playing full time mins and signing a cap friendly older player.
I could see Dan wanting Fleury up this season, he was never really given the opportunity under 🔥H. He has preformed very well in the valley under Dan and could be the option as our 7th defenseman possibly working himself into the lineup. It would make more sense to me to give him a final chance in his last contract year as opposed to signing a depth defender. Besides his 800k cap hit fits in very nicely.
Assuming they trade for NeÄŤas, an NHL skater is going to have to be in that deal and to me the most likely canidate is Tolvanen. That would put Schwartz and his $5.5m up the lineup and back on the left side. That also leaves them needing a replacement because I really like the idea of moving Tanev (sorry Turbo) so it’s not him. As I mentioned on John’s Monday Musing board, I like the idea of a Kartye, Gourde, Jeannot fourth line and at $2.7m, it’s more than a million less than Eeli.
Back to Tanev. Ottawa has been mentioned and they are also looking to move Bernard-Docker. He’s a 23 year old right-shot defenceman who was taken in the first round but hasn’t panned out yet. He did, however, play in 72 NHL games last season and is only $800k. The report is they’re looking for a late round pick. I think a “hockey trade” could work there.
If we’re being conservative on these numbers (I think $8m NeÄŤas is a bit high) and we do Beniers on a $5m bridge plus go $2.4m for two added forwards and a seventh D… that still leaves about $9m to find a winger – conservatively. If you go “league minimum” instead of Jeannot… almost $11m. I’m not great at math, but I think this checks out.
I’m curious what folks think about moving Tolvanen?
Like the idea of moving Tolvanen. No.
But I think we may need to do that if we are getting 2 top-6 forwards, which I feel is the need. As far as Turbo goes, I think Kartye is already on his way to replace him. He makes too much for a bottom-6 forward and is also a pending UFA.
Can’t see them trading Tolvanen. I could see them trading one or two of Schwartz/Burky/Tanev to free up space or sweeten a trade but Eeli is too young and too valuable to give up at this point. Not to mention he’s sturdy and the above 3 have struggled with injuries off and on. Even if they have to sign him in the 4.5 mil range that’s good value for what he brings.
I like Burakovski at $5.5m better than Tolvanen at $4.5. He’s been injured a lot, but he started to look a lot better down the stretch. I don’t know how much value Schwartz would have in a trade. The nice thing about Tolvanen is he has no protection so there aren’t any hurdles. Very curious to see what happens this next week.
Go Kraken!!!
Not disagreeing with you but:
a)Tanev/Schwartz/Burkovsky/Gourde all have NTC’s. In addition:
Tanev: Overpaid for a 4th liner. Not sure how much of a market is for that. The one positive with him is an expiring contract which may make it easier.
Schwartz: Oft injured. Underperforming in the top-6 and not suited for the bottom-6.
Burkavosky: Good when healthy. Could move him, but we need more like him (when healthy)
Gourde: Good fit. Good market. Expiring contract. Should be easy enough to move, but I doubt Francis wants to move him.
b) Tolvanen may be the unlucky one out here, unless Francis is able to get rid of two of the above to make room for the 2 top-6 forwards that Darren mentioned.
The rumor on Tanev is Ottawa is interested because they’re trying to land his brother. It sounds a bit fishy, but I’ve seen it a few places.
Interesting that you’re projecting Gourde and Schwartz to maintain their current goal totals despite moving them to the fourth line.
It’s an oversimplification, and I don’t know that they’d play on the fourth line. But if they add two forwards in the top six, then somebody will have to move down. It’s kind of like when the whole team was healthy for like a period this last year, and they had McCann on the fourth line. Even if Gourde and Schwartz *were* to play on the fourth line, both had mediocre production in 23-24, so I would hope for at least similar production in 24-25.
Feels like a lot of changes are coming. It will be interesting to see how big a swing Ron Francis takes, since historically he is as conservative as they come. I get the feeling that if it happens ownership might be driving it. Thanks as always for your perspective and insights.
PS, sorry about Turbo, but yeah, it just makes too much sense.
I still want to see a couple of things:
* What system of offense will Bylsma employ? Imo, he needs to get more players in front of the net and encourage more shooting and less passing.
* How does Bylsma inspire drive in the skaters? He must be more adept at it than Hak. He was at the minor league level, but the jury remains out at the NHL level. Disco Dan flubbed in Buffalo.
* I’m troubled that Bylsma has publicly stated that he had to rediscover his love for coaching. How will the Kraken handle it if his love wanes again?
Still a lot of questions in my mind. If your goal scoring projections hold up, we might have to sit out another year from the playoffs. I’m not optimistic just yet.
My only comment on this… the kraken had a shoot first mentality last season and it didn’t work well. More and more teams and taking the approach that a quality shot is way more important than simply sending pucks to the net. I’m not sure how the system will look next year but if we’re encouraging more shooting and less passing I’m going to pull my hair out!!! Yeah you want people going to the net.
I see Lots off ideas and interesting changes, but I am not sure about the Defense. When Dunn went down with an injury, that left Larsson as the main D-man and in my opinion, he did not handle it well nor did the team. I think an upgrade or a change. Larsson does have size but finding another 2 D-man would help. I am still not sold on Borgen or Dumoulin as a stable force for a playoff team. Getting another D-man to slip into the 3/4 spot and use Will or Brian rotate off as the 7th D-man. I rolled back a few games from last year and both of the have issues with puck possession and making passes to get out of their own zone.
What players do you feel are safe beyond Dunn Eberle McCain and Beniers? Is daccord, tolvanen, weight, Bjorkstrand, safe for this season from being moved?