We know win-loss preseason results don’t matter. I would also caution against overvaluing individual performances. The sample size is small; quality of teammates and competition vary much more widely than in the regular season; and players may be playing their first games with new teammates or trying to work on a certain aspect of their game instead of their normal approach.
That said, preseason data is all we have to go on so far, and it’s typically unavailable in aggregate form in the public sphere. So, with a healthy heap of salt, let’s take a look at the preseason performance of Seattle’s skaters and highlight a few standout areas to see what we can learn about the Kraken. Unless otherwise noted, the data was drawn from Natural Stat Trick.
Tilting the ice
Among forwards with at least 20 minutes of 5-on-5 time on ice, no one boosted the team in terms overall shot share more than Tye Kartye. We brought him up on the Sound Of Hockey Podcast as a player looking for his shot more going into his second full season. Hopefully, the preseason is a springboard for him into the regular season.
On the other end of the spectrum, the team gave up far more than it generated in terms of overall shot count when Matty Beniers and Chandler Stephenson were on the ice. As seen in the chart below, neither generated much at 5-on-5 in terms of shot quality off their own sticks, nor was the team generating positive overall shot quality share with them on the ice. These are two key players to Seattle’s success, and the team will be looking to them to start tilting the ice in the other direction once the games start counting for real.
Defensively, Brandon Montour has been delivering offense, as expected. Adam Larsson and Vince Dunn (in limited ice time) fared well, particularly defensively. The most notable performances were by Ville Ottavainen, who was an offensive boon for shot attempts, and Maxime Lajoie, who interestingly killed shots both for and against with equal measure.
When looking at individual shot quality and overall team success, Montour and Jamie Oleksiak–who quietly performs well while rarely ever being discussed–stood out. The early returns suggest this could be a very strong two-way defensive pair.
Overall, Kartye and Shane Wright drove the most offense when they were on the ice at 5-on-5. Beniers and Jared McCann struggled, though I have few concerns about McCann, given his track record.
Carrying the power play
Shifting focus to the revamped power play unit, among players who logged more than two minutes on the man advantage, no one stood out for his shot quality contributions more than Wright. He led the team with four high-danger chances on the power play, per Natural Stat Trick.
This matches the eye test from the preseason, where he was a menace down low, particularly on rebound opportunities. From my vantage, Wright should be getting heavy minutes on the first unit power-play until he proves he can’t do it.
Standout young players
While I didn’t include them in the charts above due to exceedingly small sample sizes, a couple players who only saw one game created truly excellent outcomes when they were on the ice. Nathan Villeneuve earned the goal he scored, with .54 individual expected goals created in just over 12 minutes of 5-on-5 ice time. His 2.67 expected goals per 60 minutes was by far the highest rate on the team, surpassing Kartye’s figure in three games. And no player tilted shot quality farther in favor of the Kraken than Lleyton Roed. The Kraken had almost 92 percent of shot quality share when Roed played 5-on-5.
Team-level shot quality indicators show areas for growth
Overall, the Kraken shot quality share was solid. The team took 52.4 percent of total shot attempts and 53.6 percent of shot quality overall when playing 5-on-5 this preseason. The numbers were similar in all situations, with the Kraken remaining above 50 percent in each category.
Seattle’s special teams units are still a work in progress, though. The power play generated only 5.87 expected goals per 60 minutes according to Natural Stat Trick, which is a poor rate, significantly trailing last year’s mediocre 7.03 rate, per HockeyViz. Likewise the penalty kill struggled, conceding 8.94 expected goals against per 60 minutes, which trails last season’s 7.75 rate–again per HockeyViz. The sample size is extraordinarily small, and it is clear the team is still working on new things–particularly on the power play–so some ramp up time is to be expected. But this underscores the importance of growth on special teams if the team is going to get to where it wants to go at the end of the season.
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Anything else you’re curious about in the team’s preseason data? Drop us a note below or on X, formerly known as Twitter, @deepseahockey or @sound_hockey.
Curtis Isacke
Curtis is a Sound Of Hockey contributor and member of the Kraken press corps. Curtis is an attorney by day, and he has read the NHL collective bargaining agreement and bylaws so you don’t have to. He can be found analyzing the Kraken, NHL Draft, and other hockey topics on Twitter and Bluesky @deepseahockey.
I’m wondering about how as a team our numbers would stack up vs last year’s team in the preseason?
Speaking of Wright and small sample size…
Between last season and this preseason he has averaged 2.36 goals per 60 over 178 minutes.
Now… the goals he scored last season were against three of the worst teams in the NHL and preseason is preseason… so he’s not going to score 48 goals this season averaging 15 minutes a night. However, if he does even half of that, that’s still 24 goals logging third line minutes… and as Curtis mentioned, he should be getting heavy minutes on PP1. All but one of the goals we’re talking about here were at even strength.
I’m going to go out on a limb and say even though he’s not eligible for the Calder Trophy, I think Shane is going to score more goals than whoever does win it. In fact, with Stephenson and Beniers taking most of the top matchups… I think Wright can score more goals than any Calder winner since Auston Matthews potted 40… which tops out at Elias Petterson’s 28.
Go Kraken!!!
We’re going to the playoffs baby! Go Kraken!
I think all of this really means nothing, the preseason is for evaluating young players and as a new coach working on a system. Obviously nice that the players that did well did well but overall it’s completely meaningless. The next game matters and hopefully our vets don’t treat it like a preseason game like they did early last season.
Well, it is nice to know that I am not completely blind and that Sale and Roed really did stand out. I don’t know what Sale did over the off-season, but whatever it was he did it right.