Seattle Kraken: Strive for 95 (points) December update

December is here, and after the way November ended, it couldn’t have come soon enough. The Seattle Kraken dropped three straight games to teams they should consistently beat, making those final November matchups tough to watch. However, it’s time to leave that behind and look forward as the Kraken strive to reach that 95-point mark—historically significant because teams with 95 points have made the playoffs 80 percent of the time over the last 10 full NHL seasons.

Another key benchmark is Thanksgiving. Historically, teams in playoff positions by Thanksgiving go on to make the postseason around 80 percent of the time. Kraken fans know all too well about the other 20 percent. Last season, Seattle held a playoff spot at Thanksgiving but ultimately fell short by season’s end.

Now, with the season progressing, the NHL playoff picture is beginning to take shape. For December, Sound Of Hockey updated its team tiers: Playoff Bound, Bubble, and Tankers. As the Kraken continue their push, this month will be crucial in determining where they truly stand.

November’s bomb cyclone

Last month, we targeted 18 points for November, but the Kraken managed to earn only 12. The biggest hurdle continues to be Playoff Bound teams, as the Kraken went winless in all three games against this tier. They fared better against Bubble teams, earning six points with a 3-2-0 record. In fact, the Kraken have had the most success against this group, taking 66.7 percent of available points this season. While the sting of those last three losses is still fresh, Seattle did manage a .500 point percentage against Tanker teams, going 3-3-0.

The recent three-game skid can be attributed (at least partially) to goaltending issues. Joey Daccord and Philipp Grubauer both had their worst performances of the season during this stretch. According to expected goals data from MoneyPuck, the Kraken actually outperformed their opponents in each of those losses. They generated more offense and created better chances, but expected goals don’t count on the scoreboard. The takeaway? If the Kraken continue to generate more offense than their opponents, wins should follow.

While it would have been nice to secure those easier wins to close the month, the bigger concern is their performance against Playoff Bound teams. Scoring has been the primary issue in these matchups—they managed just three goals total and were shutout twice. Now sitting six points off the pace for a 95-point season, the Kraken need to pick up an extra point or two each month for the rest of the season to get back on track.

Kraken struggling – quick hits

Each of these issues could be an article on its own, so I’ll keep it concise and just list the key concerns.

Injuries piling up

Jordan Eberle is out for at least three months, a significant blow to the Kraken’s top-six forward depth. Vince Dunn’s extended absence also hurt, but there’s good news—he returned to the lineup on Nov. 30. However, injury concerns remain, with a new one popping up this week. On Dec. 2, Ryker Evans wasn’t a full participant in practice. Coach Dan Bylsma confirmed that Evans sustained an injury in the Nov. 30 game against the Sharks. He did briefly leave that game after blocking a shot, so the injury could be related to that.

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Dan Bylsma said on Monday at Carolina that defenseman Ryker Evans wasn't a full participant in practice due to injury. His update:

"I would say, concerned." #SeaKraken

📽️ @SeattleKraken

Live: https://t.co/2VLyCfNqJv pic.twitter.com/OvrGA0odry

— 93.3 KJR (@933KJR) December 2, 2024

Top line troubles

Since Eberle’s injury, the top line of Andre Burakovsky, Matty Beniers, and Jared McCann has struggled, managing just two goals in seven games. According to MoneyPuck, they’ve produced only 1.67 goals per 60 minutes—the lowest rate of any Kraken forward line. Matty Beniers, in particular, has been held pointless during this stretch. On the positive side, this line has been defensively sound and hasn’t allowed any goals against, but their primary role is to score. In the Nov. 30 loss to the San Jose Sharks, Chandler Stephenson missed the game due to illness, prompting a shakeup to the forward lines. Beniers, Jaden Schwartz, and Oliver Bjorkstrand were grouped together and combined for three points. Stephenson should not be out long and will return, but some more future line shuffling seems necessary.

Backup goaltending

There’s no sugarcoating it—Philipp Grubauer put up a stinker in the Nov. 29 loss to the Sharks. It was an inopportune time for a bad game, especially at the start of a back-to-back with Joey Daccord needing rest. Overall, Grubauer has been mediocre at best this season. While he hasn’t been the main reason for the Kraken’s struggles (except in that last outing), he hasn’t inspired much confidence either. With just one win this season, Grubauer tends to let in a “soft” goal each game. Combine that with the Kraken’s lack of goal support when he is in net, and it’s tough to come out victorious. The team needs to find a way to boost his confidence and help him settle into a reliable backup role.

Updated team tiers

This season has brought plenty of surprises, and the competition for wild card spots is fierce. Unexpected teams like the Buffalo Sabres, Columbus Blue Jackets, Anaheim Ducks, and Philadelphia Flyers are all at or above .500 as of Dec. 1. In a surprising twist, the Minnesota Wild currently hold the top spot in the NHL by points percentage.

With that, let’s dive into the updated team tiers. The Tanker tier is shrinking, as most teams now have a legitimate path to a playoff spot. This past month reinforced a key lesson: NHL games are never easy, and you can’t overlook any opponent.

The reshuffling of teams between tiers also means adjusted point percentage targets:

Based on these updated percentages, the Kraken are currently on pace for 89 points—six points shy of the 95-point target. To stay on track, they’ll need to pick up an extra one-to-two points each month for the rest of the season.

Here comes Santa Claus

December brings a structured challenge for the Kraken, with the month unfolding in waves of four: a four-game road trip, a four-game homestand, another four-game road trip, and the start of a final four-game homestand. The target for December is 16 points across 13 games—15 points to meet their points percentage target, plus one catch-up point to stay on track for a 95-point season.

Playoff Bound tier

The Kraken face five Playoff Bound opponents this month, with four of those games on the road. The lone home game is against the Florida Panthers on Dec. 10. On their first road trip, they’ll take on the Carolina Hurricanes and New Jersey Devils. Later in the month, they’ll face two divisional rivals—the Vegas Golden Knights and Vancouver Canucks—on their second road trip. The goal: earn five points from these tough matchups.

Bubble tier

Seven games fall into the Bubble tier, with a target of nine points. The Kraken will face the New York Islanders, New York Rangers, Boston Bruins, Tampa Bay Lightning, Ottawa Senators, Colorado Avalanche, and Utah Hockey Club. There are some heavy hitters in this list, but despite their reputations, many of these teams have struggled to replicate past success, landing them in the Bubble tier. This stretch will be crucial for Seattle to capitalize on opportunities against playoff hopefuls.

Tanker tier

With the Tanker tier shrinking, the Kraken have just one game in this category—a Dec. 19 road matchup against the Chicago Blackhawks. The target here is clear: secure two points.

Kraken mindset

After the loss to the Sharks on Nov. 30, Sound Of Hockey‘s Darren Brown asked Dan Bylsma how he plans to rebuild his team’s confidence during this tough stretch. Bylsma responded:

“I think you look at the schedule a lot of different ways. But when you look at the schedule and say, ‘This is a team we may believe we can have or should have success against,’ it changes your mindset a little bit. I think I welcome the difficult opponents because that will help us change our mindset and understand how we need to play to have success in the game.”

December’s matchups feature some good, but struggling opponents in the Playoff Bound and Bubble tiers that could provide the mindset shift the Kraken need.

The Kraken face two four-game road trips this month. The second one stretches over the Christmas holiday. They’ll play three games on the road before returning home for the break, then finish the trip with a final game in Vancouver.

Seattle can recover

The sour taste of three straight losses to teams the Kraken should have beaten is still lingering. Just before this rough stretch, the Kraken were on a 6-2-0 run, and the vibes were much better. While December doesn’t promise to be any easier, hockey fortunes can change quickly. With the Kraken only five points out of a playoff spot, there’s still hope.

If the Kraken had won the last two games against the Sharks, they’d be a .500 team and just one point out of a wild card spot. Fans would likely be in a much better mood. But the question is, should we let the results of two games define the season? Those two losses sting, but the Kraken need to move on and start chipping away at the six-point deficit to get back on track toward the 95-point pace.

We’ll continue to track the Kraken’s progress each month throughout the season. If you have any questions, thoughts, or suggestions, feel free to leave them in the comments below or reach out to me on my socials. My handle is blaizg on multiple platforms.