December is here, and after the way November ended, it couldn’t have come soon enough. The Seattle Kraken dropped three straight games to teams they should consistently beat, making those final November matchups tough to watch. However, it’s time to leave that behind and look forward as the Kraken strive to reach that 95-point mark—historically significant because teams with 95 points have made the playoffs 80 percent of the time over the last 10 full NHL seasons.
Another key benchmark is Thanksgiving. Historically, teams in playoff positions by Thanksgiving go on to make the postseason around 80 percent of the time. Kraken fans know all too well about the other 20 percent. Last season, Seattle held a playoff spot at Thanksgiving but ultimately fell short by season’s end.
Now, with the season progressing, the NHL playoff picture is beginning to take shape. For December, Sound Of Hockey updated its team tiers: Playoff Bound, Bubble, and Tankers. As the Kraken continue their push, this month will be crucial in determining where they truly stand.
November’s bomb cyclone
Last month, we targeted 18 points for November, but the Kraken managed to earn only 12. The biggest hurdle continues to be Playoff Bound teams, as the Kraken went winless in all three games against this tier. They fared better against Bubble teams, earning six points with a 3-2-0 record. In fact, the Kraken have had the most success against this group, taking 66.7 percent of available points this season. While the sting of those last three losses is still fresh, Seattle did manage a .500 point percentage against Tanker teams, going 3-3-0.
The recent three-game skid can be attributed (at least partially) to goaltending issues. Joey Daccord and Philipp Grubauer both had their worst performances of the season during this stretch. According to expected goals data from MoneyPuck, the Kraken actually outperformed their opponents in each of those losses. They generated more offense and created better chances, but expected goals don’t count on the scoreboard. The takeaway? If the Kraken continue to generate more offense than their opponents, wins should follow.
While it would have been nice to secure those easier wins to close the month, the bigger concern is their performance against Playoff Bound teams. Scoring has been the primary issue in these matchups—they managed just three goals total and were shutout twice. Now sitting six points off the pace for a 95-point season, the Kraken need to pick up an extra point or two each month for the rest of the season to get back on track.
Kraken struggling – quick hits
Each of these issues could be an article on its own, so I’ll keep it concise and just list the key concerns.
Injuries piling up
Jordan Eberle is out for at least three months, a significant blow to the Kraken’s top-six forward depth. Vince Dunn’s extended absence also hurt, but there’s good news—he returned to the lineup on Nov. 30. However, injury concerns remain, with a new one popping up this week. On Dec. 2, Ryker Evans wasn’t a full participant in practice. Coach Dan Bylsma confirmed that Evans sustained an injury in the Nov. 30 game against the Sharks. He did briefly leave that game after blocking a shot, so the injury could be related to that.
Dan Bylsma said on Monday at Carolina that defenseman Ryker Evans wasn't a full participant in practice due to injury. His update:
— 93.3 KJR (@933KJR) December 2, 2024
"I would say, concerned." #SeaKraken
📽️ @SeattleKraken
Live: https://t.co/2VLyCfNqJv pic.twitter.com/OvrGA0odry
Top line troubles
Since Eberle’s injury, the top line of Andre Burakovsky, Matty Beniers, and Jared McCann has struggled, managing just two goals in seven games. According to MoneyPuck, they’ve produced only 1.67 goals per 60 minutes—the lowest rate of any Kraken forward line. Matty Beniers, in particular, has been held pointless during this stretch. On the positive side, this line has been defensively sound and hasn’t allowed any goals against, but their primary role is to score. In the Nov. 30 loss to the San Jose Sharks, Chandler Stephenson missed the game due to illness, prompting a shakeup to the forward lines. Beniers, Jaden Schwartz, and Oliver Bjorkstrand were grouped together and combined for three points. Stephenson should not be out long and will return, but some more future line shuffling seems necessary.
Backup goaltending
There’s no sugarcoating it—Philipp Grubauer put up a stinker in the Nov. 29 loss to the Sharks. It was an inopportune time for a bad game, especially at the start of a back-to-back with Joey Daccord needing rest. Overall, Grubauer has been mediocre at best this season. While he hasn’t been the main reason for the Kraken’s struggles (except in that last outing), he hasn’t inspired much confidence either. With just one win this season, Grubauer tends to let in a “soft” goal each game. Combine that with the Kraken’s lack of goal support when he is in net, and it’s tough to come out victorious. The team needs to find a way to boost his confidence and help him settle into a reliable backup role.
Updated team tiers
This season has brought plenty of surprises, and the competition for wild card spots is fierce. Unexpected teams like the Buffalo Sabres, Columbus Blue Jackets, Anaheim Ducks, and Philadelphia Flyers are all at or above .500 as of Dec. 1. In a surprising twist, the Minnesota Wild currently hold the top spot in the NHL by points percentage.
With that, let’s dive into the updated team tiers. The Tanker tier is shrinking, as most teams now have a legitimate path to a playoff spot. This past month reinforced a key lesson: NHL games are never easy, and you can’t overlook any opponent.
The reshuffling of teams between tiers also means adjusted point percentage targets:
Based on these updated percentages, the Kraken are currently on pace for 89 points—six points shy of the 95-point target. To stay on track, they’ll need to pick up an extra one-to-two points each month for the rest of the season.
Here comes Santa Claus
December brings a structured challenge for the Kraken, with the month unfolding in waves of four: a four-game road trip, a four-game homestand, another four-game road trip, and the start of a final four-game homestand. The target for December is 16 points across 13 games—15 points to meet their points percentage target, plus one catch-up point to stay on track for a 95-point season.
Playoff Bound tier
The Kraken face five Playoff Bound opponents this month, with four of those games on the road. The lone home game is against the Florida Panthers on Dec. 10. On their first road trip, they’ll take on the Carolina Hurricanes and New Jersey Devils. Later in the month, they’ll face two divisional rivals—the Vegas Golden Knights and Vancouver Canucks—on their second road trip. The goal: earn five points from these tough matchups.
Bubble tier
Seven games fall into the Bubble tier, with a target of nine points. The Kraken will face the New York Islanders, New York Rangers, Boston Bruins, Tampa Bay Lightning, Ottawa Senators, Colorado Avalanche, and Utah Hockey Club. There are some heavy hitters in this list, but despite their reputations, many of these teams have struggled to replicate past success, landing them in the Bubble tier. This stretch will be crucial for Seattle to capitalize on opportunities against playoff hopefuls.
Tanker tier
With the Tanker tier shrinking, the Kraken have just one game in this category—a Dec. 19 road matchup against the Chicago Blackhawks. The target here is clear: secure two points.
Kraken mindset
After the loss to the Sharks on Nov. 30, Sound Of Hockey‘s Darren Brown asked Dan Bylsma how he plans to rebuild his team’s confidence during this tough stretch. Bylsma responded:
“I think you look at the schedule a lot of different ways. But when you look at the schedule and say, ‘This is a team we may believe we can have or should have success against,’ it changes your mindset a little bit. I think I welcome the difficult opponents because that will help us change our mindset and understand how we need to play to have success in the game.”
December’s matchups feature some good, but struggling opponents in the Playoff Bound and Bubble tiers that could provide the mindset shift the Kraken need.
The Kraken face two four-game road trips this month. The second one stretches over the Christmas holiday. They’ll play three games on the road before returning home for the break, then finish the trip with a final game in Vancouver.
Seattle can recover
The sour taste of three straight losses to teams the Kraken should have beaten is still lingering. Just before this rough stretch, the Kraken were on a 6-2-0 run, and the vibes were much better. While December doesn’t promise to be any easier, hockey fortunes can change quickly. With the Kraken only five points out of a playoff spot, there’s still hope.
If the Kraken had won the last two games against the Sharks, they’d be a .500 team and just one point out of a wild card spot. Fans would likely be in a much better mood. But the question is, should we let the results of two games define the season? Those two losses sting, but the Kraken need to move on and start chipping away at the six-point deficit to get back on track toward the 95-point pace.
We’ll continue to track the Kraken’s progress each month throughout the season. If you have any questions, thoughts, or suggestions, feel free to leave them in the comments below or reach out to me on my socials. My handle is blaizg on multiple platforms.
Blaiz Grubic
Blaiz Grubic is a contributor at Sound Of Hockey. A passionate hockey fan and player for over 30 years, Blaiz grew up in the Pacific Northwest and is an alumni of Washington State University (Go Cougs!). When he’s not playing, watching, or writing about hockey, he enjoys quality time with his wife and daughter or getting out on a golf course for a quick round. Follow @blaizg on BlueSky or X.
This actually helped. I feel little better… for now.
Thank you.
Wasn’t the November 8th win over Vegas a win over a “playoff bound” team? Or do overtime wins not count?
Go Kraken!!!
Ah… I see the Golden Knights were not in the “playoff bound” tier. It must’ve been the Avalanche, Bruins, and Rangers… which means the three playoff teams that beat us aren’t even playoff bound any longer… maybe I don’t feel better.
Yep, you found the answer, Vegas was just promoted to Playoff Bound this month. You nailed the 3 Playoff Bound teams. Here is the link to the November update if you want to see all the tiers.
https://soundofhockey.com/2024/11/02/seattle-kraken-strive-for-95-points-november-update/
With trade value players struggling and no cap space, a trade is not in the horizon, I feel. The players who are not performing we all know who they are, it is time that they stepped up. With regards to trades, I have no confidence in Francis making any and his hands must be pretty sore after sitting on them all summer and early this season. Ron, it is not working and neither are you.
It sure sucked losing 3 games to crap teams, but sweeping the road trip against 4 good teams would more than make up for it. Let’s gooooo
Count me in, let’s do it!!!!
Even if Seattle win 10 in a row and makes the playoffs, it’s obviously just one possible outcome of the overall statistical probability. It’s not a consequence of a good plan and its quality execution.
The result of a managerial job well done is an improvement in the quality of play from season to season, and as a consequence comes stable results. Does any of us have any reasonable expectations (not a pure belief) about it?
Francis isn’t successful, his ideas (if any) aren’t working. Questionable signings, half of which are fiascos, degradation of young players, with a payroll almost at the ceiling for a couple years to come. No need to analyse it further anymore, it’s his fourth year and he is arguably just a bad manager.
So, hope this team decide to save some time for fixing and will fire him immediately.
Yes, I have a reasonable expectation about the direction of the team. I think “reasonable” is a big part of it. I think there is a “reasonable” plan in place and it’s not really that difficult to see what it is.
Difficult. Please share some ideas.
The plan very much seems to be building a team through developing a core of young players as you replace aging veterans while accumulating a pool of assets along the way. It also recognizes that a newly established hockey community of fans is not going to flourish if you give them a non-competitiv team for half-a-decade plus.
After next season the Kraken can say goodbye to: Schwartz, Bjorkstrand, Eberle and Oleksiak. Wright will still be on his ELC and Tolvanen (who is tradeable) will be expiring. Elliotte Friedman reported the cap could be as high $110m season after next, but even if we’re conservative and go with $105m, the Kraken will have $50m in cap space, a hopefully soild one-two down the middle, and maybe a couple of young forwards breaking through like Rehkopf or Catton. Also, Stephenson’s “horrible” contract will be at about the same percentage as Yanni’s is at the same age.
I think folks can not like it all they want. I don’t think that a new GM is going to somehow get top quality players to come to Seattle at a discount or fleece a bunch of so called rubes out of their best players. I do think, however, it’s not all that hard to see what the plan is. Build a team in a market where you can’t suck right now.
They replaced their “aging veteran” center with an older aging veteran center who is worse, more expensive, and signed for seven seasons.
They replaced their “aging veteran” defenseman with a slightly younger but still 30+ veteran defenseman who is also signed for seven seasons. At least he’s been a legitimate upgrade, although it’s TBD if that will be true by the time the team is competitive.
They re-signed another “aging veteran” defenseman to a more expensive four year extension without requiring him to demonstrate that he could bounce back from a down season last year.
They’re relying on long term injuries to important players to allow them to ice a full roster because they’re not willing to let go of two more “aging veteran” forwards on expiring contracts. I wouldn’t be surprised at this point to see one or both of those guys get extended, although I acknowledge that this hasn’t happened yet.
I will give you that they replaced their oldest veteran with a young guy, but they still don’t seem to be giving him enough of a role to seriously develop.
Do you see why it’s not clear that they’re following a “replace older vets with younger players” plan? Especially if they spend this summer’s cap space on more veterans? I would be fine with that plan if they appeared to be sticking with it, but they don’t. I’m not sure enough of the prospects are going to arrive quickly enough to make it feasible to follow that plan without another couple of down years.
Since I can’t directly reply to you on this platform phi… I’ll have to do it this way.
First I would say that Stephenson is not the replacement for Wennberg. There are two dynamics working at once… be competitive, build for the future.
Stephenson is ultimately the replacement for Gourde, however, in the short term he allows you to give your young centers space to develop and also hopefully remain somewhat competitive as a team.
In a couple years, Beniers and Wright are your core down the middle with Catton on the way, but in the mean time those guys aren’t getting crushed every night like what happened against the Avs in Colorado. By the time Stephenson drops to the fourth line, his contract won’t look so bad.
On defense, Montour obviously does a lot to shore up this team in the near term, but hopefully as Larsson ages out and Dunn continues into his prime, you can leverage Brandon’s game into easing Larsson down to a third pair role. I’m starting to think maybe they resign Borgen and in two years the right side is Montour, Borgen and Larsson (in that order) and on the left side you have a new No.1 D who you have a ton of assets (cash, picks, prospects), Dunn and Evans. Regardless, the D looks fine.
I can see why it’s not clear. But I think part of that is folks feel like tomorrow is going to be like yesterday – especially at the Athletic – when that’s seldom the case. I also think – to pick up on a thought Chuck has been exploring – in sports as in business, shareholders care about profits, investors care about value. I think – and again, that not worth much – the Kraken are investing in hockey in Seattle.
I am aware that they’re trying to be competitive now, but it doesn’t seem to be working out. And no, one good game has not changed my mind about that.
Whether you want to admit it or not, Stephenson has taken Wennberg’s role in the lineup. That was the justification for his signing, that he would upgrade that spot in the short term (not Bellemare’s). Rather than keeping the team competitive while Wright and Beniers develop, he’s taking up ice time and getting destroyed in those minutes. His contract, particularly the term, ensures that he will be on the team for a long time and will not be replaced by a younger player. Even if you look at him as a Gourde replacement, replacing a 32yo with a 30yo is not exactly embracing a youth movement.
If the current batch of prospects aren’t guaranteed to be an enormous upgrade by this summer (they won’t be, because they’re young and nothing is guaranteed) it seems more likely that Gourde and Tanev will either be resigned or replaced in UFA. In either case, that means those roster spots will continue to be occupied by mediocre veterans (because 8ish million is probably not enough to sign someone high end if the cap goes up as much as you’re speculating), likely with term and salaries that are too high to keep in the press box consistently or trade without retention and/or sweeteners.
The defense scenario you outlined doesn’t really involve replacing current players with younger ones either, except possibly this hypothetical 1D replacing Oleksiak (although if such a player is stepping into a 1D role on day one he’s probably not THAT young). There is no roster space for prospects of any kind.
It is absolutely possible that the team will make the switch to replacement in a year or three when more prospects should be ready. I’m just saying that the available evidence (the moves they have actually made so far) are not consistent with that plan and may in fact hinder their ability to follow it in the future.
phi… I think I agree with most of what you’re saying but I feel like we’re kind of talking in degrees here, especially when we talk about “competitive”.
I agree that Stephenson is immediately the replacement for Wennberg, which is why I qualified his replacement of Gourde with “ultimately”. This season – I belive – his $6.25m is there to take some of the tough assignments, eat minutes, and allow Wright to grow into a bigger role with more minutes. In a couple seasons when he’s filling that fourth line role I don’t think his contract is going to be so onerous. Even young teams have a few old guys hanging around. This has been brought up before, all the alternatives to Stephenson were basically “get worse”. I can accept that as an approach – tanking – but I’m not a fan of it and I think there are other reasons this team isn’t in a position to go that route right now.
If they resign Borgen he’s still going to be just 28, I believe. Montour and Larsson are certainly getting up there, but I think a few more seasons is reasonable to expect from Montour and I believe Larsson will be down on the third pair season after next. The right side is definitely looking like the “oldest” unit going forward. Dunn is still just 28, Evans is obviously very young, and Oleksiak’s replacement – to me – should also have some quality years ahead of him. I agree though, that right side could need some shoring up down the road, but I don’t know that it’s really going to handcuff them.
I don’t expect the forward prospect(s) they bring up next season to be an upgrade. I expect Beniers, Wright, Evans and Kartye will improve, the team will have a full season under a new coaching staff… and they’ll probably be marginally better than this season. It’s the following season, I’m anticipating, where they should take a big step. They will have at least half-a-dozen of the players they’ve developed, multiple ELCs, and something around $40m to replace aging veterans. I don’t know that it’s simply happenstance Eberle was given two years.
I think – and I could be missing something here – we’re looking at “competitive” differently and that’s where our perspectives depart the most. To me, I think for this team competitive means icing a team that has a decent chance of winning more often than not and playing meaningful games around the trade deadline. I think it’s more likely than not they miss the playoffs. I think that level of play is enough for management to build interest in a new market with a new “television” structure. I don’t think you would consider that to be competitive. I would add that right now this team is – to me – very much an ink blot… different folks are gonna see different things.
One game shouldn’t change anyone’s mind… but I sure am glad they won.
This isn’t being abrasive – I appreciate how well thought out your comments are so I’m asking this sincerely – what do you think should done differently?
Daniel,
I like your viewpoint. And you are right, as I have said in multiple threads. One needs to view the Kraken’s hockey ops through the lens of a business. On that score, one can only judge Francis’ results as middling at best. There are a number of Francis apologists, whom I can only assume have never run a large business and don’t understand that in the business world, no one would be last 5.5 years after having produced such poor results, with vague hopes for the future.
If I told my CEO that my results in the present were crap but please believe me, my results 3 or 4 years from now will be better, I would be fired the same day. So why hasn’t Francis been fired yet?
Not sure I would call it a zero-sum game but I am beginning to see it that way. The good NHL GMs better evaluate and better negotiate than the poor GMs. It is really not that hard to look around the league and see who better GMs are. Why did the Kraken ownership, who did pretty much everything else right, drop the ball by not choosing a better GM?
Or maybe they didn’t drop the ball and Ron Francis is being exactly the GM they hired him to be, the same guy who built the core in Carolina and then was let go when new ownership came in and “spiked the ball” after all the work he’d put in.
I think it’s also important to recognize, Francis has seen first hand how bad it is to be managing a cellar team in a tough market. You talk about business… you think having to show up every day at the office managing a franchise whose ownership is getting quotes on moving vans doesn’t make an impression.
I think he saw and learned a lot in Carolina and I think he’s actually being the GM they hired him to be.
And another thing… if you told your CEO your pesent results were crap but believe me, in three or four years they’re gonna be great… you wouldn’t get fired, your CEO would go out and collect a huge round of funding… because you’d be 90% of the firms in Silicon Valley over the past 30 years. Even in hockey, sometimes it’s about growth.
The remaining schedule veers heavily toward playoff and bubble teams obviously. Rather than worry about points % per category, my contribution to Tautological Tuesday is this:
PLAY CONSISTENTLY well enough to compete and win vs. playoff teams and you’ll make the playoffs. If you can’t compete against playoff teams, then you’re not a playoff team.
I suppose there is some logic that says “well, you don’t really NEED to play well against playoff teams IF you capture a high points % vs. bubble teams. For sake of argument, let’s say there is a numeric metric for Kraken’s “mean” team performance the past 3+ seasons. Whatever that hypothetical value is, the Kraken would clearly high standard deviation around that mean indicating they’re a “very risky” team. In English, when they’re playing well they’ve proven they can beat any team in the league. And when they suck they’ll lose to everyone (e.g. the last four games). Historically, it seems there is no middle ground for this team.
Just play well and win the effing games.
I am with you. This approach is not that they can play easier against soft teams. It is more to highlight when they are playing a harder or easier schedule and if they lose a few it might still be ok. Kraken definitely need to put in a consistent effort every night and continue to improve.
I have been meaning to ask about your username, Totemforlife, is that for the Seattle Totems or something else? Did you play for them?
Blaiz – sorry for the delay in responding. Agree with your point that of course the Kraken need to play well in the final 50+ games, but perfection is not needed. No loss or two will be their Waterloo. There will be losses, so I will try and keep the faith 🙂
With respect to my name – My dad was medical professional associated with the Totems from 67/68 season up through 74/75 when the team folded. As a medical professional he had to attend every game, and I attended about 35 games a year with him.
Many great “team memories” from those years – the intense rivalry and playoff series with the Portland Buckaroos – a rivalry so heated it hatched the “Portland Sucks!” chant still used by T-Birds today (regardless of opponent). The best single game memory was in January 1974 when the Totems defeated the Red Army team 8-4, and in the process beating Vladislav Tretiak (best goalie in the world at the time) like a rented mule. Even just having dinner at Gasperetti’s Cafe before every Saturday night game.
Best “personal memory” The time we coincidentally ran into Bill Dineen (whose kids also went to our grade school) in early summer 1969. A very reserved man, Bill nevertheless had an irrepressible grin on his face from ear-to-ear. He explained that he had just been named player-coach of the Denver Spurs, and he was just thrilled. He was transitioning to the next phase of his hockey life, and he simply couldn’t contain his excitement. He reached into his pocket and proudly presented me with a Denver Spurs hockey puck – which I still have to this day. I’ve come to learn that sports/team allegiances – especially those developed as a kid – are just as evocative as the music we grew up with during that same era.
My own personal hockey career is that of a barely serviceable third-line winger on C/D level beer-league team. I could skate, but like an idiot I didn’t play in my early teens but at age fifty I decided it was now or never. Started in a league in Vacaville, CA. Played a few years in California and after moving back to Seattle I played Div 6 in GSHL and Level D in SKAHL for several years. But, hey at least I got to play the greatest sport on the planet….
That is awesome. I never knew the Totems played Tretiak and the Red Army. This is amazing. I am going to have to dig into some history on that.
Lots of great stuff on this old website:
https://www.seattletotems.org/totems_history.html
Due to the inability to reply directly….
This is for Daryl W and his Ron Francis Jones.
Did the Kraken not hire a GM to win now? There is no more guarantee of tomorrow’s competitiveness based on prospects for the Kraken than for any other team. There are any number of teams who have a great pool of prospects already at the NHL level or close to it who have not turned into competitive teams.
Learned from his last experience as GM? The guy is in his 60s. Teach an old dog new tricks? He does not seem to have changed at all.
The Kraken are not a startup dependent on patient VC funds who expect an outsized payout many years down the line after years of little revenue. Their business model depends on current revenues from fans interested enough to buy tickets and merchandise.
From what I have seen, you like to get the final word on every issue. You are entitled to your opinion but no one is right. They are just opinions.
Yes Chuck, I agree… they are just opinions. “Ron Francis Jones” is an opinion. Some people have the opinion the GM should be fired, some people disagree.
I think the only time I’ve said I was “right” about something is when you erroneously claimed Francis burned Beniers ELC by playing him 10 games.
I’m happy to give you the last word on this; however, if you feel I’ve somehow tried to deny someone the right to their opinion that is not my intention. I try to make what I think are sound points to support my opinions and I fully embrace others doing the same.