Seattle Kraken data reveals areas in need of retooling

When we last checked in on macro trends in the Seattle Kraken data, the Kraken were limping home after a calamitous five-game road trip. In a curious bit of historical mirror imagery, this next look comes after a heartening trip that included wins over the Carolina Hurricanes and New York Rangers. After salvaging a point in Tuesday’s home tilt against the reigning Stanley Cup champion Florida Panthers, we are at the 30-game mark in the season and due for another deep dive on team-level information and player-level results.

Big picture, the team’s season sits on the knife’s edge. While the Kraken have been accumulating points in a tough stretch, most playoff prognosticators still put Seattle’s playoff odds below 25 percent. Looking at the standings, it is becoming increasingly apparent that Seattle will need to climb over one or two quality teams if they are going to eke their way into the playoff field in a relatively deep Western Conference. Our own Blaiz Grubic has detailed the task ahead, but, put simply, every standings point is going to be “high leverage” from here on out. The time is now to deploy changes based on the lessons learned to date. Even after some adjustments, the playoffs are still a long shot, but any further delay in addressing problem areas could sink Seattle’s playoff push well before the March trade deadline.

Unless otherwise noted below, the data used in this article is from Natural Stat Trick. Let’s dive in.

Kraken scoring has stabilized but remains below average

Seattle’s scoring offense has found necessary depth over the last few weeks with Vince Dunn’s return to the lineup and with Shane Wright, Eeli Tolvanen, and Oliver Bjorkstrand all improving their production.

The picture isn’t quite as bleak as it seemed during our first update, but there is also little to suggest a playoff run as a 5-on-5 behemoth like two years ago. The shots went in on the road trip, but the team still struggled to create consistent shot quality inside. The chart below shows the five-game rolling average of 5-on-5 goals scored and expected goals scored (i.e. “shot quality”) by game number.

The actual and expected results were progressing and then saw a significant bump with Vince Dunn’s return. But 5-on-5 shot quality regressed again at the end of the trip and in the Florida game. Was that the product of tough competition or simply a regression to the team’s established “average” production this season?

The story is similar on the power play. The team has found its game to an extent; it no longer resides among the basement dwellers in terms of shot quality or production, but there is also little evidence it will prove to be a team strength. (Most notable to me on this chart, though, is the persistence of Edmonton’s struggles.)

Again, looking at how the team’s production has evolved over time, we see a spike in production over the last few games, but little in the underlying shot data to suggest it’s sustainable. (This conforms to my eye test too. Recently, the Kraken have gotten a handful of power-play goals off tips or deflections after stagnant efforts that don’t feel particularly heartening to me.)

Kraken 5-on-5 defense has come around, but the penalty kill is a problem

Over the last 15 games, the team has improved its consistency with defensive-zone coverages, while also benefiting from the return of Dunn.

Since our last update the 5-on-5 defense has been average or better at limiting shot quality and is trending toward average numbers overall. The team struggled to prevent goals over the last couple weeks, but at a macro level, that looks like a run of bad goaltending for the most part. With Joey Daccord playing extremely well against the Panthers on Tuesday, the team is surely hopeful the goaltending is back on track.

I don’t see similar room for optimism on the penalty kill though. The shot quality against numbers are quite poor overall. Indeed, it seems that strong goalie play is the only thing separating Seattle from a bottom-five shorthanded unit.

More troubling, though, is the utter absence of any successful run of play. In a rolling five-game sample over the course of the season, the unit has been below average at suppressing opposing shot quality almost the entire time.

Put simply, the ultra-passive box approach the team has been using so far is not working. In fact, the shot quality results have been getting worse recently. Perhaps other teams have realized the Kraken are unwilling or unable to disrupt possession.

The team used a similar box scheme at the end of last season, but the players were empowered to create significantly more puck pressure. This year’s unit might benefit from a shift back to that prior mindset.

On the personnel side, I’d prefer to see more of Matty Beniers (who brings natural defensive aggressiveness) and less Chandler Stephenson (who is passive to an extreme on the penalty kill).

Kraken skater data shows an average group with a few lagging behind

It’s no surprise to fans at this point that Kraken individual player deployment and production is relatively flat. While the team lacks high-end producers, it has depth that few teams can counter. This creates few true standouts in the data set. Beniers has emerged as the team’s No. 1 even-strength center both in terms of total ice time and quality of competition (more on that in a minute). Brandon Montour continues to be a workhorse pacing the team in 5-on-5 time on ice. From a scoring efficiency standpoint, Jared McCann and Oliver Bjorkstrand lead the way up front, with Vince Dunn rapidly catching up on the blue line.

Losing Jordan Eberle has been a blow to the team’s 5-on-5 offense. No player generated individual shot quality or goals more efficiently than Eberle when he was in the lineup.

Drawing back to examine team performance depending on who is on the ice, we start to get a sense of a group of players who have been struggling to tilt the ice in Seattle’s direction this season.

Using Evolving Hockey’s on-ice Quality of Competition metric, we find that these poor results aren’t necessarily due to being matched with difficult competition. Stephenson and Andre Burakovsky see only slightly more difficult than average matchups, while Borgen has been seeing relatively poor competition.

The team benched Burakovsky previously and saw immediate dividends, with a goal in the first period of his first game back. I believe that option should be on the table with Will Borgen too. It goes without saying the team is better with Borgen in the lineup over Josh Mahura, but Borgen has been fighting it this year. The team’s full health on the blue line gives the Kraken the luxury of getting Borgen “a breather” like it did for Burakovsky, Wright, Bjorkstrand, and Tye Kartye, to varying levels of success.

The situation with Stephenson, who is in Year 1 of a seven-year contract, is exponentially more complicated. In the short term, however, I think the team would be better off by scaling back his even-strength (and penalty kill) exposure a bit.

Turning to the power play, Stephenson has stood out as a key facilitator. On the other hand, I have found myself frustrated with him, Burakovsky, and Beniers to varying degrees for their propensity to lock in on passing when opportunities for a decent shot attempt are there.

On the penalty kill side, the Kraken don’t have a net positive performer in Evolving Hockey’s shorthanded play-driving metric. This brings me back to the scheme because there is no reason players like Jamie Oleksiak or Yanni Gourde shouldn’t be strong penalty killers. Only Brandon Tanev is performing near league average levels in Evolving Hockey’s model.

Is there anything else that you’d like to see? Or anything else that stands out in the data here? Drop us a note in the comments below or on X, formerly known as Twitter, or on BlueSky @deepseahockey or @sound_hockey.