The Seattle Kraken have magically won three of their last five games, just missing out on at least another point in their one loss of the week against the Winnipeg Jets. That loss came after the Jets scored off a fluky bounce with 30 seconds remaining. Regardless of the season’s overall outlook, the Kraken are playing some fun hockey right now.
The importance of context
I’m not fully prepared to delve into the societal impacts of social media and sensational headlines, but too often, I see people forming opinions based on a tweet or headline without digging deeper. To truly understand something, it’s essential to put it into context. In life, understanding context helps you gain clarity, make better analyses, and avoid misunderstandings. Hockey is no different.
Take Saturday night as an example: the Kraken were outshot 17–1 in the third period. There’s no denying that’s bad, but the context matters. The Kraken entered the third with a 3–2 lead and prioritized a conservative defensive mindset, which ultimately secured the victory. I wouldn’t recommend sitting back for 20 minutes to protect a one-goal lead, but understanding the situation provides perspective if you only look at the shot totals. Either way, it worked.
Shifts and impacts on time on ice
On the topic of context, we got a question in our Patreon Mailbag last week about Shane Wright’s relatively low ice time. I also received a few texts about it. I get where the concern comes from—you hear that Wright is playing well, then check the box score and see he’s third or fourth among Kraken centers in minutes. The reality is you need to dig deeper to understand the situation.
More often than not, differences in ice time are driven by special teams and line deployment. For example, in a one-goal game, Chandler Stephenson and Matty Beniers double-shifted during the last five minutes. Up until that point, Wright hadn’t missed a regular shift. A different situation came up when his linemate Jared McCann committed two penalties on back-to-back shifts, sidelining his linemates for an extended period of time.
Center deployment context
At a recent Patreon watch party, someone brought up some interesting stats about where Kraken centers are taking face-offs. They pointed out that Stephenson is handling a disproportionate number of face-offs in the defensive zone. This makes sense: coaches typically deploy a defensively responsible center in those situations, and Stephenson is not only the team’s best face-off winner but also considered its strongest defensive center.
I had the conversation on Thursday, so by Saturday, I was focusing on who was taking face-offs in the defensive zone. With Yanni Gourde on injured reserve, I noticed Beniers was out there quite a bit, which made me want to see how the face-off deployments were trending over the season.
Sprong sound bite
A sound bite often lacks context, which can distort the full picture of an interview or statement. A recent example is Daniel Sprong’s comments to the media after his first game with the Coachella Valley Firebirds. The quote that made headlines was, “I want to prove that I don’t belong here.” This sounds like a disgruntled employee, but the full quote tells a different story:
“It’s been a tough couple of days, and my mindset is to help the young guys promote to the big team. I’ve been a young guy before, and I try to lead by example and help with the little things. And for myself, I want to prove that I don’t belong here. You know, my performance in the NHL over the last two years speaks for itself, and these are the cards I’ve been dealt right now. Personally, I want to prove that I don’t belong here. For now, I’ll help the young guys, work hard, and try to fix my game a little bit.”
To me, the full context softens the edge of his statement. Sprong understands his assignment and will support his teammates in Coachella Valley, but ultimately, he wants to return to the NHL. I have no issues with that mindset.
Other musings
- Adam Larsson had two notably long shifts on Saturday night. In the second period, he was on the ice for about 85 seconds when Chandler Stephenson committed a penalty, and he stayed on for another 80 seconds to kill the first part of the penalty. He also played the final 2:29 of the game.
- Saturday night was one of the best games I’ve seen all season from Matty Beniers. He was strong on the puck and was a big contributor defensively in the third period that helped the Kraken lock it down.
- I’m loving what I’m seeing from Kaapo Kakko. After notching three assists on Saturday, Kakko has more than doubled his points-per-game average with the Kraken compared to his time with the Rangers this season. Some context: he’s averaging three more minutes of ice time per game with the Kraken and has been on the ice for 41.7 percent of the team’s power play time since joining, compared to 23.0 percent with New York.
- It’s probably too early for the Kraken front office to start negotiating Kakko’s next contract, but it’s shaping up to be an interesting conversation. As a Restricted Free Agent this offseason with one year remaining under team control, Kakko can take the qualifying offer and hit the open market in 2026 if he chooses. Assuming he continues to play at this level, the Kraken will likely try to lock him up long-term.
- The Kraken have played seven overtime games so far, while Vancouver has played 14. The resulting seven “loser points” are the exact difference between the two teams in the standings (Kraken 43, Vancouver 50).
- I checked in on the Kraken’s shooting percentage this season and was surprised to see it’s above league average and closer to last season’s numbers.
- Hockey insider Frank Seravalli made a case for Yanni Gourde potentially fetching a first-round draft pick ahead of the trade season. While I think that’s a stretch, I do think Gourde could bring back a second-round pick and a late-round pick. If that’s the case, I’d love to see Nick Robertson come to Seattle in a trade with Toronto.
- I really hope we get to see Yanni Gourde play at least one more home game at Climate Pledge Arena.
Goal of the Week
As Curtis pointed out on Friday, Kraken prospect Jani Nyman is really hitting his stride for the Coachella Valley Firebirds. Li’l Jani is starting to set up his own office on the power play which could be a unique option for the Kraken next season.
Jani Nyman alkaa päästä vauhtiin AHL:n 2x finalisti Coachella Valley Firebirdsin paidassa. 🔥
— Heikki Mannonen (@HMannone) January 9, 2025
Nyman on joukkueen tehokkain pelaaja: 33 matsiin 12+9. Kolmen ottelun maaliputkessa. 192cm, 94kg.
Koska alamme puhua NHL-debyytistä?
Nyt.#NHLfi #Ilves #AHLfipic.twitter.com/OA3GHqdi50
Player performances
Jaden Schwartz – It was great to witness a hat trick last Saturday. Schwartz has been one of the Kraken’s best players over the last month and has been a consistent contributor all season.
Jaden Schwartz picks up the fifth hatty of his career! 🎩🎩🎩
— NHL (@NHL) January 19, 2025
Hat Trick Challenge presented by @AstraZenecaUS pic.twitter.com/rPEOvp6FjV
Lleyton Roed – In his first full season of pro hockey for Coachella Valley, Roed has a five-game point streak and eight points over that stretch. I wonder if he might get a call-up in the spring after the trade deadline.
Kaapo Kakko – I can’t stop talking about Kakko. He had three assists on Saturday night, and that line with Schwartz and Beniers is performing at a level we haven’t seen all season.
The week ahead
The Kraken have three home games this week that should be entertaining at the least. The Sabres will be looking for redemption after surrendering six unanswered goals to the Kraken in Buffalo nine days ago. Then the revitalized Washington Capitals will visit Climate Pledge Arena on Thursday where Alexander Ovechkin continues his pursuit of Wayne Gretzky’s goal-scoring record. The week is then capped off on Saturday when the Penguins come to town. The Caps are surging right now, with points in their last 10 games, including seven wins. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh is reeling, losing eight out of their last 10 games.
At this point of the season, I just want to see the Kraken maintain the compete level that we’ve seen over the last week. That is fun and enjoyable hockey to watch, which is all I need now.
I still do not understand why Sprong is not playing and we have Firebirds , not deserving in my opinion, in the lineup. I can see a conditioning assignment because he did not play that much in Vancouver the last month. It does not sound like that. His Speed and hockey smarts is valuable at this point in time.
I wondered same thing. Although i do see the CV players are centers. I’m also a big fan of Mitchell Stephens.
I feel the opposite of the article – the more I see of what Sprong says, the less I like his attitude.
Defensively, he’s a liability. Both Mitchell Stephens (also a fan) and Hayden are better defensive players.
Kartye’s defense has regressed this year, but I think he’s sticking I. Seattle for 2 reasons: the risk of another team picking him up off waivers and (possibly more importantly) attitude. I see a lot of similarities between him Gourde, and Tanev – the willingness to get physical putting everything he has into every shift and seeming to get along with the entire team, from the CV rookies, the top-liners and Joey and Gru.
I’m not an insider but from what I’ve heard the knock on Sprong is his relatively poor backchecking and overall defense.
I’m sitting in the car waiting to go into the Buffalo game! Hoping the Kraken can bring the same energy to disappoint the Sabers again.
I am chomping at the bit with regards to Kaapo Kakko. So much do that i might be willing to pull the trigger on a KK jersey soon. We’re headed to Four Nations Faceoff next month and Id love to sport the 84! Let’s go Kraken!
Puck handling is where Kakko has been most impressive, especially compared the rest of the team, who either can’t hold onto it while skating (Kartye, Wright), can’t send/receive a pass (Burakovsky, Bjorkstrand, Stephenson), or can’t/won’t shoot (Burakovsky, Stephenson, Oleksiak).
Knowing the Kraken’s cap situation, I’m really wondering what’s going to happen in the off-season. It seems like a pretty good offer-sheet scenario for a team that has dollars the Kraken just aren’t going to be able to match.
There are no rational reasons to justify Wright’s limited time on ice. Especially considering his PP time. This team needs to find out what he can handle in a full time (ie 17 + minute) role; anything less is wasting the season
If Bylsma gets fired when the new GM comes in that’s reason enough
Did you read the article? Shane is getting comparable equivalent ice time to Stephenson. He’s really not ready for Matty minutes or responsibility.
Whatever
Don’t understand all the negativity towards Stevenson. He leads the team in assists and total power play points. We can nit-pic any player from time to time, but he has held his own quite well in my opinion. I do understand that his 7 year contract and salary has perhaps given people concerns.
“Stephenson is not only the team’s best face-off winner but also considered its strongest defensive center.”
What? I saw this and was very surprised! Stephenson as our strongest defensive center does not match my eyes at all. Which made me wonder: what data do people use to measure defensive value in hockey? Is there something the numbers point to that my eyes are missing?
Stephenson’s only strengths seem to be in his faceoffs (which don’t really matter) and dishing on the PP. If you look at the advanced stats, it tells pretty much the opposite story of him being “strong defensively” — his lines are all the most caved-in in the league, no matter who his linemates are, according to xGF%. He put in some good effort last night, as did Burky, but there were also shifts where he turns the puck over with lackadaisical passes and then kind of floats around.
My eye test over 7 games in the seats and 20 on my couch, small sample size warning, is that Stephenson is a poor defensive center. The publicly available advanced stats support this.
He can facilitate on the PP for sure.
Decent FO man.
World class floater.
Big drag on results at 5 on 5
As a 3C at $4m for 2 years on a good team that has two top centers with two-way chops, good wingers, and a 4C with defensive ability? Maybe, as the rest of the team is built around mitigating his weaknesses.
The public analytics are extremely limited which makes measuring defensive capabilities almost impossible from a public standpoint. Takeaways are a basic one and easy to find but other than that it is a challenge. Hard to say how teams are using the puck tracking since each team will have their own models and levels of measurement. I would start with the more generic terms of what makes someone a great defenseman. My quick thoughts are filling lanes to remove passing options (particularly inside), directly limiting shots, removing rush chances (this might be covering when the defense pinches), defensive zone clears, and things of that nature. With all the player and puck tracking, they can build models to measure those things and continue to tweak them. Stephenson is also a good puck handler which doesn’t necessarily translate to defensive skill but might come into play with breaking up plays and clearing the puck out of the zone.
John if he was actually good at those things you mention — and watching the games, I am not seeing any of it — it would be reflected in the public analytics because the other teams would not be getting so many golden chances when is on the ice. The stats say Stephenson is not only bad, but maybe THE worst full-time forward in the entire NHL. Even if you think the public analytics are prone to some error because they are not tracking some details, there is no possible margin for error that would justify a claim that he is actually GOOD at defense.
I will admit oddly that just to my eyes, Stephenson does seem to have some more jump the last 2 games. His lines have actually had some sustained o-zone time, which almost never happened over the previous couple months. If he’s not washed, where has that been all season? Or maybe my eyes are just fooling me.
Clearly we see the game different. I watch all the games as well and see it differently. I was also a Wennberg supporter (another divisive player) for some of the same things that don’t get picked up in the limited public data. Have you looked at strength of competition at all? I know Stephenson was getting the toughest match-ups but I haven’t looked at it in a while.
I’m not sure how you can compare the two, other than them both being guys who some people didn’t like and you did. I think most fans who watched the team regularly could see Wennberg’s defensive and possession value, even if his tendency to over pass was frustrating at times. He was also playing as a 2C even though he’s more of a 3C, which wasn’t really his fault.
His xGF% at 5 on 5 in his 3 years were 47, 49, and 50%, which is right around what I would expect for someone who doesn’t generate a ton of offense but was good at suppressing quality on defense.
Last year, Stephenson was at 45%, and this year he is second to last in the entire NHL at 37% xGF% at 5 on 5 (min 400 TOI). That is eye-wateringly bad. I agree with Foist, the error bars for this couldn’t possibly pass into good, average, or even below average territory. MAYBE he’s just been bad instead of bottom of the league bad. And in terms of him facing the other team’s best lines, I again do not think that accounts for him literally being at the bottom of the league. Every team has to face another team’s best line, so unless they’re all blending together and Stephenson is one of the only ones facing top lines all the time, that would be controlled for in the data.
And in terms of the eye test, I dunno man. Watching him loaf and skate around in circles yesterday while Burky was actually working his ass off was frustrating to watch. He had a nice set up of Matty on the PP (and to me this is his only positive contribution to the team generally), and he was in a good spot for his rebound goal, but the lax effort he very obviously and regularly puts in is not Wennbergian in the least.
John, I am confused about what you’re getting at with Shane Wright’s ice time. What are people saying that you think is based on misunderstandings? I think, but correct me if I’m wrong, that people are saying Wright should be trusted in more situations since he is playing well, and better than at least 2 of the other centers. Then your explanation is just two examples of him being not trusted and held off the ice in key situations (late and close, and on the PK). Isn’t that just begging the question of WHY Bylsma is not playing Wright in those situations?
Also was confused at this: “While I think that’s a stretch, I do think Gourde could bring back a second-round pick and a late-round pick. If that’s the case, I’d love to see Nick Robertson come to Seattle in a trade with Toronto.” Are you suggesting Gourde could fetch Robertson AND a 2nd? Or are you saying you want them to try and get Robertson INSTEAD OF a 2nd?
RE Wright: They are protecting him a ton by minimizing his starts in the defensive zone. This makes his numbers look better than they really are. he is not on the ice in the PK or toward the end of the games because his defensive game at the NHL level is not there. I love his development so it is nothing I am worried about just part of the development process. I wish I had data to validate what I think my eyes are telling me because I saw him stuck in the defensive zone a lot over the last couple games. Maybe everyone goes through that from time to time so maybe it is my eye test failing.
RE Gourde: I think a gourde for robertson is too cheap for seattle if Gourde can actually snatch a first. despite what Frank S suggests, I think Gourde can get a 2nd + a third or fourth. I think Robertson is worth a second so therefore Gourde for Robertson + a third or fourth would be fair but I don’t know what else is on the table.
Got it, thanks!