It’s no secret the Seattle Kraken’s future hinges on the growth of two young centers: Matty Beniers and Shane Wright. Both were high draft picks expected to become cornerstone players, and while their development paths have looked very different so far, each offers plenty of intrigue for fans playing the long game. Beniers jumped straight into a top-six role, won the Calder Trophy, and then, like many young NHLers, hit a bit of turbulence in his second season. Wright, meanwhile, has taken the scenic route, with some starts and stops in the AHL, World Juniors, and limited NHL time, leaving some fans wondering where exactly he stacks up against his peers.

So where are these two trending? And how do they compare to players drafted in similar spots? Let’s take a look at some early production metrics, with the full understanding that player development is anything but a straight line.

Data and methodology

Before we dive in, a quick note on how we’re measuring things. For this piece, we’re sticking to some good ol’ hockey basics: goals scored, points per game (PPG), and average time on ice (TOI). These are straightforward, digestible stats that give us a snapshot of how Matty Beniers and Shane Wright are progressing so far in their young NHL careers.

Now, we fully acknowledge there are far more advanced ways to evaluate player performance, things like expected goals, possession metrics, other impact models, and more. And those tools absolutely have value. But for this early career comparison, we’re keeping it simple. Why? Because sometimes it’s helpful to start with the surface-level numbers before diving into the more technical aspects of evaluation. These are the stats fans know, broadcasters talk about, and young players often get judged by (fair or not).

To create a relevant group of comparable players, I looked only at centers who made their NHL debut since the 2010–11 season and played 50 or more games before turning 21 years old. Breaking it down: 578 centers have debuted since 2010–11, but just 80 have hit that 50-game mark before their 21st birthday. With a few exceptions, this filter effectively narrows the list to the NHL’s best young centers over the past decade-plus, so even being average in this group is still very good.

It’s also worth noting that I’m not factoring in draft position for this analysis. While expectations are obviously higher for top picks, the goal here is to understand the kind of trajectory Beniers and Wright are on, regardless of the expectations attached to where they were drafted.

This isn’t a perfect science, of course. Player development is messy, and everyone’s timeline is a little different. Some guys get top-line minutes from day one; others marinate in the AHL or get eased in more slowly. But hopefully, this gives us a rough idea of where things stand today—and maybe where they’re headed next.

The analysis

Beniers has played 249 career regular-season games, and Wright has played 95. To look at different stages of development, I’ve broken the analysis into 50-game segments and used rate stats (like per-game production) where appropriate. This avoids nitpicking things like the one game Matty is short of a full 250, or Shane being five games shy of a full 100. The idea is to look at trends, not obsess over perfect math.

Points per game

The first metric we’ll look at is points per game. The visual I’m using is a box plot that shows the distribution among the 80 centers who met the criteria. The box plot breaks the data into quartiles, which helps us get a sense of where players fall relative to their peers.

As you might expect, Matty came out flying, his points-per-game metric in his first 50 NHL games was outstanding, with only a handful of centers posting better production. In games 51–100, though, his output dipped closer to the median of the peer group. That decline continued in the 101–150 segment, landing Matty in the second quartile. It’s worth pointing out that now that he’s in the 201-250 range, he’s still one of the younger players in that dataset.

To add context, I pulled the names of the five centers directly above and below Matty’s points per game in the 201–250 segment to see the types of players he’s grouped with.

Based on that group, you could argue there’s some reason to doubt if Matty will become the bona fide No. 1 center we all envisioned after his rookie season. But there are a few top-line guys in that range, so it’s certainly still in play.

Conversely, Shane’s points-per-game numbers in his first 50 games sit just above the average for this peer group. Then, in the next 45 games (remember, he’s only played 95 total), his production climbs close to the top quartile. It’s too early to throw a parade, but the trajectory is encouraging, especially when you see names like Sebastian Aho, Sam Reinhart, Robert Thomas, and Leon Draisaitl showing up around him.

Goals per game

Next up: goals per game, using the same box plot format.

Matty’s trend here mirrors what we saw with points per game. There’s a noticeable dip after his first 50 games, but an encouraging uptick in the 201–250 segment, where he jumps to the top of the third quartile. This recent bump in goal scoring also aligns with the arrival of Kaapo Kakko, giving him more offensive support.

Shane’s goals-per-game trend is similarly encouraging. He tracks a little higher than Matty in both of his segments, which is another good sign that he’s making the most of his limited minutes so far.

Time on ice per game

Out of curiosity, I also looked at average time on ice per game. This isn’t a perfect stat, since it doesn’t account for quality of minutes, special teams usage, or game situations, but it can be a loose indicator of how much trust a player has earned from the coaching staff.

What jumps out immediately is how low Shane’s ice time has been compared to Matty’s. We know Beniers has solid defensive metrics, which naturally makes him a candidate for more ice time in high-leverage situations—like when the Kraken are trying to protect a lead.

Under head coach Dan Bylsma, we saw late-game center deployments lean heavily on Chandler Stephenson, Yanni Gourde, and Beniers. That kind of trust doesn’t come overnight, and it shows where Matty stands in the pecking order.

Some key observations

• Matty Beniers’ early career arc is actually pretty typical for young NHL centers. He burst onto the scene with a great first 50 games, but his production dipped in the 101–200 range—something we’ve seen from a lot of young players adjusting to more responsibilities. The recent jump in goal scoring in games 201–250 is a good sign that he might be finding his groove again, especially with more consistent linemates and offensive-zone usage.
• Shane Wright’s trajectory is subtle but encouraging. While his overall NHL experience is limited, his per-game production puts him in strong company. The fact that he’s already tracking above average in points and goals in this peer group suggests there’s real upside here.
• Usage really matters. Wright’s low ice time is the biggest contextual flag in this entire analysis. Less time means fewer opportunities to score, but it also reflects how the team is bringing him along—deliberately and patiently. Meanwhile, Beniers has been leaned on in all situations from the start.

Limitations of the analysis

Let’s be real for a second; no single stat (or even a bundle of them) can tell the whole story of a young player’s development. Ice time quality, linemates, team systems, special teams roles, none of that is captured in simple rate stats. Some guys get sheltered early, others get thrown into the deep end, some stick right away, and others bounce around before finding their footing.

And of course, development is not linear. A dip in production doesn’t necessarily mean regression; it might mean a new role, a rough patch, or just the natural learning curve of playing in the best league in the world.

The point of this analysis isn’t to define a player’s ceiling, it’s to offer a snapshot of how things are trending.

Wright and Beniers continuing on different paths

For a team still building its identity and core, having two young centers like Matty Beniers and Shane Wright developing side by side is a pretty good place to be.

The numbers tell us their paths are different; Matty got the fast start and is working through a midstream recalibration, while Shane had the slower start but is showing a clear upward trend. Both are holding their own among the NHL’s best young centers at this stage of their respective careers.

Whether either of them becomes a true first-line center is still an open question. But the foundation is there, and there’s every reason to believe that both players can be big parts of the Kraken’s long-term success.