The Seattle Kraken made two subtle (but notable) roster moves this offseason that could have a sneaky impact on a part of the game that hasn’t historically been a strength for the team: the penalty kill. Frédérick Gaudreau, acquired via trade from Minnesota, and Ryan Lindgren, signed in free agency after splitting last season between the Rangers and Avalanche, were both key penalty killers for their previous teams.
The state of the Kraken penalty kill
Let’s be honest, the Kraken have never had a good penalty kill. In their four NHL seasons, they’ve never finished higher than 79 percent on their PK success rate, and they’ve consistently been in the bottom half of the league. Last season, they ended at 77.2 percent, which ranked 21st overall.
To their credit, the Kraken haven’t taken many penalties and were shorthanded just 193 times last season, fifth fewest in the league. But even with a lower volume, the efficiency still wasn’t good enough. It was clear the penalty kill needed attention this offseason.
And then came the trade deadline, when Seattle shipped out two of their top penalty-killing forwards: Yanni Gourde and Brandon Tanev. In the games Gourde played, he was on the ice for over 40 percent of the Kraken’s shorthanded time. Tanev played a whopping 60 percent of the PK minutes when healthy. That’s a huge chunk of the unit gone.
To close out the season, the Kraken leaned on a mix of Chandler Stephenson, Eeli Tolvanen, Matty Beniers, and Jared McCann to pick up the slack. But it was clear they needed a more permanent solution, and that’s where Gaudreau fits in.
Why Gaudreau matters: face-offs and flexibility
One of the sneakier aspects of the Gaudreau trade is what it means for penalty kill face-offs, especially on the right side of the ice. Until now, the Kraken have primarily relied on left-shot centers on the PK, which creates a strong-side/weak-side imbalance. A lefty takes draws better on the left dot; a righty does better on the right. That small edge matters, especially on the penalty kill when a clean face-off win can lead to an instant clear. (For more background on this topic, check this post about the face-off scenarios from 2023.)
With Gaudreau, the Kraken now have a right-shot PK center for the first time in a while. Yes, Mitchell Stephens played a few games last season, but the team has been lacking a consistent right-shot option. Gaudreau gives them the ability to deploy by specific dot, which should help them win more defensive-zone draws and the subsequent possession that will lead to more zone clears. That, in turn, leads to more time killed.
Here’s a look at the defensive-zone shorthanded face-off numbers for Gaudreau and Stephenson:
Expect Stephenson’s workload to shift to fewer weak-side draws next season, while Gaudreau will handle a majority of the right dot responsibilities, which is Stephenson’s weak side.
Ryan Lindgren impact on the penalty kill
The Kraken’s only major free-agent signing was 27-year-old defenseman Ryan Lindgren, who inked a four-year deal worth $4.5M AAV. Lindgren brings a strong defensive presence with a propensity to killing penalties, having played 53.8 percent of New York’s shorthanded time before being traded to Colorado.
He’s known for blocking shots, making smart reads, and absorbing minutes on the PK. After he left the Rangers, their PK numbers took a noticeable dip, which tells you something about his impact.
Seattle leaned heavily on Jamie Oleksiak and Adam Larsson last season. Both were on the ice for over 70 percent of the team’s shorthanded minutes. Lindgren’s arrival could help lighten that load, especially for Oleksiak, or it could signal a shift in usage as the team rebalances its D pairs.
Either way, Lindgren should help make the Kraken’s PK more effective and more sustainable over an 82-game season.
Big picture impact
Zooming out, I always like to look at net goal differential as a shorthand for playoff potential. That’s goals for minus goals against, excluding empty-netters. In general, teams with a positive net differential tend to make the playoffs. Last season, only the Rangers missed the playoffs despite a positive net differential, and a couple teams with negative differentials still snuck in.
So, what’s the potential impact of a better penalty kill?
Let’s say the Kraken improve from 77.2 percent to 80 percent PK efficiency this season, and they’re shorthanded the same 193 times. That translates to 5.4 fewer goals against over the season. It doesn’t sound like much, but in a tight playoff race, that can be the difference between golfing in April and grabbing a Wild Card spot.
Final thoughts
The Kraken have not made a splashy move this summer, but they made smart ones. The additions of Frédérick Gaudreau and Ryan Lindgren quietly patch one of the holes in Seattle’s roster, the penalty kill. The moves did not garner massive headlines, but they will help win games. Plus, the cost was cheap, and with draft capital and cap space, Seattle still has doors open elsewhere.
I am not suggesting that the upgrades in the penalty kill will get this team in playoff contention, but if they are going to play meaningful games in March, they are going to need contributions and improvements from a lot of places. The penalty kill is one of those areas of opportunity.
The added personal will help but we were overly passive last season on the PK, I feel a different system on its own will improve the PK. Grubauers poor rebound control and well lack of making saves was also a factor, I guess that’s not changing this season. Hopefully the new goalie coach helps?
Yeah there may be just skepticism because of the past, but I’m willing to give Lambert and company a decent shot at turning things around.
Go Kraken!!!
Maybe Curtis can refresh his deep dive on how the team played in front of a Joey last year.
It would be interesting to see the split on PK performance when Joey was in net vs when Gru was. Also how it was for Joey during first half of the year when he wasn’t playing every game.
I hope the team keeps a close eye on advanced analytics this year and don’t keep running Gru out there if every data point show up negatively.
Nothing to do with the penalty kill but just reading about McKenna choosing to leave the WHL for college.
This got me thinking, what if Catton does not make the NHL roster full-time next season. Would it not be better for him to spend at least a year in college hockey playing against more difficult competition?
If the answer is yes, then really it applies to all the 2024 and 2025 draft choices, would their development not be better in the NCAA than the CHL after their age 18 season?
Then shouldn’t this become the norm after all high drafted CHL players who cannot play in the AHL?
It would certainly be better if he was able to play college, but because Catton has already sign an NHL contract, even under the new NCAA/CHL settlement he’s not eligible. Best of all would be if he was eligible to play in the AHL, but again, this time due to the NHL/CHL agreement he’s not eligible. There has been talk of modifying the latter agreement to allow teams something like an exemption for a first round player, but as of yet there is nothing imminent.
OK, hadn’t really looked into the details but if that is a limitation, it makes one wonder what Botterill was thinking by signing O’Brien now instead of waiting and letting him play in the NCAA next year. You would think number one draft picks need the challenge of stepping up to a level above the CHL in the two years before they can play in the AHL. Perhaps GMs need to revisit the development process from CHL->AHL->NHL to CHL->NCAA->AHL->NHL.
I was actually at the Stucky Cup when they did his signing and that was immediately my first thought… so much for college.
I don’t know the first thing about the intricacies of actual payments and such on ELCs so it’s difficult for me to judge. I tend to defer to the professionals – as you’ve probably noticed. There could be a ton of different ideas on this that I’m just not aware of. I’d really like it if someone in the media would actually put the question to Botterill, but I’m not convinced that’s going to happen and even if it does, I’d be surprised if the answer was substantive.
Let’s hope the SOH guys ask.
There is a timely podcast over at THN where the guys were discussing this same question, and talking about how the NCAA games are on weekends but the players use the weight room during the week. That sounds like exactly what an underweight guy like O’Brien who has already performed at a high level in the CHL needs. Playing against older players while doing lots of weights would seem optimal for his development. Seems like a missed opportunity.
I might have listened to the same pod, but the version I was listening to was about defenseman. Makar, Hughes, Fox, Werenski… the best young defenseman in the league all did two years in college after being drafted. I think more and more folks recognize the benefit of less games, more practice and the physical training that college provides as a benefit for a certain class of players, especially defenseman where development is a much longer process.
At this point I’m drawing any conclusions on O’Brien.
This pod: https://thehockeynews.com/news/podcast/the-hockey-news-big-show-how-many-2025-nhl-draft-picks-could-immediately-make-the-jump
I listened to that THN pod earlier today. On the number of games played when they were talking about McKenna… there’s also World Juniors on top of the college schedule. With the workouts and facilities and added practice time, I think there’s a lot to be said for the development model in the NCAA vs CHL – for some players.
A follow up…
Seravalli tweeted out the new CBA does in fact allow teams to designate one 19 year old for assignment to the AHL… beginning with the 26/27 season. Too late for Catton but just right for O’Brien.
Outside the box idea as a different option for a kid who clearly is too dominant for the WHL. What if we send Catton to play in Sweden if he doesn’t stick with the Kraken?
The CHL/NHL agreement doesn’t allow for players to go to the AHL and because he is signed he is ineligible to go the NCAA route (which is why I was disappointed they signed O’Brien). However, I believe he could possibly play professionally in Europe. The Swiss league would have him playing again men and more physically developed players. It’s also a more defensive league so would help develop that angle of his game.
I belive – though I’m not positive on this – the CHL contract Catton signed does not permit this option. I suppose he could violate his contract, but I’m not sure that’s going to be the best option.
As much as everyone in the media was beside themselves about Shane Wright’s first season with the Kraken, I could see a similar path for Catton. He could start out on the roster and get selected starts. He could then do a conditioning stint in the AHL and then go to World Juniors. That would push any decision off until after the first of the year. I don’t think the Chiefs would be crazy about this approach, but oh well.
Just a thought…
Here’s hoping Catton blows people away in training camp and removes all doubt.
Go Kraken!!!
The penalty kill has been really streaky in Kraken history. It went through long stretches of being godawful, but then it would appear to be shut-down over certain months, like after Jared McCann stated playing PK in 2023. Losing Gourde and Tanev no doubt hurt the PK, but I wonder how much could be accomplished just by getting some consistency out of the guys they now have on the roster. And, yes, Gaudreau being a righty is surely going to help matters. You know what would make sense now that I think about it? Pair Gaudreau with McCann. That way there is one right-handed guy who can take draws and one left-handed guy who can take draws. They will never be at a disadvantage in their own zone no matter where the puck gets frozen. Then put Larsson and Lindgren out with them for all that shot-blocking goodness. PK2 would be a bit rough with all the best killers on PK1, but I imagine that whatever squad they roll out will be able to hang with most teams’ PP2s. Do we know yet which of the new assistants is going to handle the penalty kill?