On Thursday, the Seattle Kraken announced an organizational first: a trade involving a team-drafted prospect. The Kraken sent their 2021 fourth-round pick Tucker Robertson to the Philadelphia Flyers in a one-for-one exchange for Jon-Randall Avon. As it turns out, there are a number of parallels and similarities between the two players.
The two forwards are 22-year-old Ontario natives born within two weeks of each other in the summer of 2003. After successful youth hockey performances, each was drafted to the Peterborough Petes with picks in the 2019 OHL Priority Selection. They then played 150-plus OHL games together in Peterborough, culminating with each being part of the leadership group on the 2022-23 Petes team that won the OHL Championship.
Since departing the OHL, each has played in the professional minor leagues, mostly in the AHL. Avon has 35 points in 125 AHL games with Lehigh Valley in that span—for .28 points per game. For his part, Robertson has 19 points in 77 AHL games with Coachella Valley—for .25 points per game. Robertson also had 14 points in the 13 ECHL games. All of these statistical similarities put them in a very similar place in our recent “data-only” NHL-affiliated prospect ranking: Avon was No. 500 and Robertson was No. 535.
At this point you might be wondering (fairly) why the Kraken made this fairly minor prospect swap at all if the players are so similar. I suspect both long-term and short-term roster dynamics could be at play.
This is the last season of both Avon and Robertson’s three-year, entry-level contracts. My guess is the organizations had doubts the players they traded would factor into their future plans beyond the current contract. Now, each player gets a fresh start and opportunity to impress a team that may be more inclined to re-sign them beyond this year.
It’s also possible the teams doubted the traded players would be AHL regulars this season. Earlier this offseason, I had Robertson as low as sixth on the Coachella Valley center depth chart. Avon was in the Lehigh Valley lineup for the large majority of last season but was scratched for the team’s AHL playoff games. It’s likely Seattle views Avon, who has skated mostly as a winger professionally, as a better organizational fit and more likely to have an AHL role this coming year, given the team’s other options.
Why so? That’s where the film review comes in. In this special trade edition of the Friday Film Room, we’ll take a first look at Avon’s game, followed by our more typical game film and progress reports on forward Berkly Catton and goalie Kim Saarinen. If you have questions or Film Room requests, don’t hesitate to reach out below or on social media @deepseahockey or @sound_hockey.
J.R. Avon | Forward | 22 years old | Undrafted Free Agent (Flyers)
Video: All Shifts | Lehigh Valley Phantoms vs. Bridgeport Islanders (AHL) | Apr. 2, 2025
Notes: J.R. Avon brings a starkly different set of physical tools from a 6-foot-0 frame when compared with the smaller, cerebral Robertson. Between the two, I’d rate Robertson’s hockey sense, skill level, and center aptitude ahead of Avon, whereas Avon has the decided advantage in size, skating, physicality, and compete.
I think it’s fair to say that Robertson’s pure offensive upside is higher; Robertson was a significantly better junior scorer, for example. Over the last two years, however, I’ve come to doubt whether Robertson will be able to manifest that production in the professional ranks. While he is creative and smart, his physical limitations both in terms of size and speed have significantly hampered his ability to create space for himself or teammates offensively. Even if he can break through at the AHL level, I suspect Robertson’s most optimistic peak might be an Andrew Poturalski-type career arc—i.e., a player who tops out just below the NHL level due to pace and size limitations.
In contrast, Avon displays NHL-level skating and tenacity both forechecking and backchecking from the wing position. In the two games I’ve viewed so far, his ability to pressure the puck on his own created turnovers and space for his team to make a line change in situations I would not have expected. When the play is mired through the neutral zone, he can flip the ice by winning simple dump-and-chase plays with speed and physicality.
While his size is only average, he displays a willingness and aptitude to engage physically. His ability to win puck battles and overall board work is above average. He was often the tip-of-the-spear F1 in a neutral-zone forecheck.
Avon does not standout as a plus playmaker or possession player, but he has enough ability with the puck on his stick to take open ice in transition and run effective offensive-zone cycles and give-and-go sequences. He does good work off the puck offensively to find open space and will shoot if he is uncovered. Most of his goals are of the “dirty” variety and come from his willingness to work to the net front when the play dictates.
Avon skated in a fourth-line role, without special teams responsibilities in the games I viewed. This puts him at the very bottom of the AHL depth chart. I would have liked to see if he could produce on the penalty kill, but I did not see those opportunities in the games I watched.
I’d project Avon to compete for a fourth-line left wing role with Coachella Valley (with Lleyton Roed perhaps moving up into more of a middle-six left-wing role). In a best-case scenario, I could see Avon’s skills translating to a similar role at the NHL level, but there is a lot to prove still in the AHL—particularly from a point production standpoint—before he could get into that conversation.
More on Avon:
Jon-Randall Avon with the silky backhander🔥@LVPhantoms | #WBSvsLV pic.twitter.com/cD3mNrlbxA
— American Hockey League (@TheAHL) February 10, 2024
2025-26 season outlook: Competing for bottom-six time for Coachella Valley (AHL).
System rank: Outside the top 20
Peak projection (50th percentile outcome): Multi-year AHL middle-six forward (ETA: 2026-27)
Berkly Catton | Forward | 19 years old | 2024 first-round pick (signed)
Video: All Shifts | Spokane Chiefs vs. Medicine Hat Tigers (NCAA) | May 11, 2025
Notes: On a recent episode of the excellent Called Up podcast, Good-Friend-of-the-Pod and Flo Hockey analyst Chris Peters asked Elite Prospects‘ Cam Robinson about Elite Prospects’ decision to rank Catton below many members of the 2025 draft class (including Jake O’Brien) in its recent NHL-affiliated prospect ranking.
Robinson’s answer surprised me a bit. Robinson said that Elite Prospects was concerned whether Catton could translate his offensive production to the NHL level. In their view, Catton relied on lower-pace, ice-scanning plays to generate points and these plays do not work as well in the professional ranks where defenses deny space much more quickly. This may be a dated criticism of Catton’s game, though.
Toward the end of the 2024-25 WHL season and throughout the playoffs, I saw Catton working to create offense without losing any pace—and doing it effectively. Pair this with physical commitment off the ice (he came in second in the team’s athletic testing at development camp this summer), clear progress in his first-step skating explosiveness, and some added details in his off-the-puck play in all three zones, and I think Catton has taken strides to make his game “translate” professionally in every area he can.
If I were stretching to find areas to critique, Catton gets himself in trouble when he attempts to defeat a defender one-on-one at the offensive blue line or in other vulnerable positions. He often prevails—but when he does not he either concedes advantages or gets desperate obstructing his opponent with his stick, leading to penalties. Those types of plays will not work regularly at the NHL level, and he needs to learn when the situation dictates a simpler, conservative play. He also needs to use his skating more defensively because he can get caught reaching with his stick at times.
Beyond that, Catton is self-evidently limited in his size and physicality, but he has the speed, skill, and hockey sense to win in other ways. He could play center, but I continue to think of him as a playmaking, point-per-game winger at his peak. And I think we could see that version of Catton sooner rather than later.
More on Catton: Check out this mid-season interview Catton did with Sound Of Hockey’s Cameron Riggers.
2025-26 season outlook: Semi-regular NHL playing time.
System Rank: No. 1.
Peak Projection (50th percentile outcome): Second-line, playmaking winger (ETA: 2027-28)
Kim Saarinen | Goalie | 19 years old | 2024 third-round pick (signed)
Video: All Shots Against | Finland U19 vs. Sweden U19 | Apr. 20, 2025
Notes: Kim Saarinen is coming off a standout rookie season for HPK in Liiga, Finland’s top professional league, finishing third in save percentage as an 18-year-old. Few goalies have achieved such success at such a young age in Liiga—not even fellow Kraken prospect Nikke Kokko was as productive at the same stage. Equally encouraging, Saarinen continues to earn starts for Finland’s national team on the international stage. Earlier this summer we profiled Saarinen’s strong work at the 2025 World Junior Summer Showcase.
Corey Pronman of The Athletic arched my eyebrow a bit when he ranked Saarinen as Seattle’s best goalie prospect (above Kokko) in his recent prospect ranking. You could argue Saarinen has a pure skill advantage; it is close, but I’d probably still lean toward Kokko. And Kokko has successfully transitioned to the North American game already with a standout rookie AHL season. I like Saarinen a lot, but he will be behind Kokko in my forthcoming preseason Kraken prospects ranking.
2025-26 season outlook: Tandem starter role in Liiga
System Rank: No. 16 (No. 3 goalie behind Kokko and narrowly behind Semyon Vyazovoy)
Peak Projection (50th percentile outcome): NHL spot starter or backup (ETA: 2028-29)
Curtis Isacke
Curtis is a Sound Of Hockey contributor and member of the Kraken press corps. Curtis is an attorney by day, and he has read the NHL collective bargaining agreement and bylaws so you don’t have to. He can be found analyzing the Kraken, NHL Draft, and other hockey topics on Twitter and Bluesky @deepseahockey.
great work!
I love your analysis and it got me wondering about a Kraken spot opening up instead of Jani as many fans thinking that Cattons speed will out weigh Nymans size. I do not think that Catton has the skills and size yet to be an NHL player, do you disagree?
I think ideally Catton would get the stepping stone of AHL time, but it seems unlikely that’s going to be possible this year (for more than a conditioning stint). Due to a combination of three factors–my impression of his game during the WHL playoffs, his demonstrated off-ice conditioning level at dev camp, and my impression of his maturity from interview interactions with him–I am increasingly optimistic on his ability to survive in the NHL this season, if put in the proper sheltered offensive role. I think expecting him to be a big positive this season is probably a stretch though. Right now I’d guess Nyman could make a bigger NHL impact this season. But it’s a fascinating debate because they’re such different players.
Thanks for this 🙂
Curtis,
On Catton, you said “Second-line, playmaking winger (ETA: 2027-28)”. Over at the Athletic, Corey P said “He projects as a star first-line center.”
Is there some way you can reconcile those two projections?
Good question and I’m open to thoughts on how to do these “projections.” Not sure if there is one best way to do it, but I will take some time on the next Film Room to explain a bit more how I have approached it and will solicit more feedback.
For my projection, I’m trying to think about the “average” scenario: 50% of time the player will turn out better than this; 50% of the time worse.
Not sure exactly how Pronman does it, but it’s possible it’s as simple as: He looks at the player and thinks “the player will be X.” In Catton’s case:, a star forward. I don’t think he’s saying there’s a 100% chance of that. It’s just what he thinks will happen. What get’s a little lost there is his degree of confidence and/or the variability of outcomes.
I considered going more with a straight “my gut says the player will be X” for my “projection” but I worried about three things: (1) Giving unrealistically optimistic projections due to a bias on my part (Pronman does not need to be as concerned about this); (2) creating unrealistic expectations if in fact I am being too optimistic (again, not as much an issue for Pronman); and/or (3) creating false impression of certainty (though I’m not sure I’ve avoided this; I think I need to be clearer).
If you asked me what I personally think Catton will be, I’d probably be closer to Pronman. I just tried to think about it more as: there’s a best case, middle case, and worst-case for a player. Unless I’m very, very confident in the best case, I’ll throw out the middle case as the expectation. For Catton that was top-six scoring winger. The approach doesn’t lend itself to lofty projections for anyone short of a tip top prospect in the game, so maybe it’s not the best one. I’ll continue to think about it.
Curtis, a few thoughts.
1. I think you should use the most optimistic case instead of the average case, as frequently when I see those projections, they seem like a letdown after reading your description of the player above it.
2. It would also be good if it was more clear what you mean by ETA. Since Catton has a shot of making the 2025-26 roster, an ETA of 2027-28 seems nonsensical, especially in light of your response to harpdog. Perhaps a different term should be used, like breakout year.
3. You might have noticed Pronman’s 2024 re-draft, where he had Catton at 5 instead of 8 (and the two D the Kraken passed on even higher). We will see shortly but maybe you will want a re-do on Catton’s projection after camp. And Pronman also rated Saarinen much higher than where he was drafted, so maybe that is also something to ponder.