Kraken preseason is officially underway. As I have done in previous preseasons, I like to project Seattle’s playoff chances by forecasting the team’s goal scoring. You can review my last three forecasts here: 2022–23, 2023–24, and 2024–25.
This forecast looks at adjusted goals for each player on the projected Kraken roster. The “adjusted goals” metric is defined as goals scored minus empty-net goals. Based on prior analysis, teams with an adjusted goal differential of plus-one to plus-five make the playoffs more than 50 percent of the time. Adjusted goals against is the other half of that equation, but for this article, we’re only focusing on adjusted goals for.
Looking back at the 2024–25 forecast
Last season, the Kraken finished with 230 adjusted goals, an increase of 25 compared to 2023–24. My forecast missed the mark by 11.9 goals. Here’s a player-by-player breakdown:
Overall, the forecast did fine but not great. A few players came in well below expectations, Andre Burakovsky and Jared McCann among them, but Jaden Schwartz more than offset those misses, finishing 10.9 goals above what I had projected for him. That’s how forecasting tends to work: some players overshoot, others undershoot.
There were also factors that would have been tough to build into the model. Jordan Eberle’s injury was significant. Yanni Gourde also missed time with injury, and even when healthy, his production lagged. Trades always shake things up, too. While Gourde and Oliver Bjorkstrand were dealt at the deadline, their lost production was roughly balanced by Kaapo Kakko, who arrived in an earlier trade.
Roster unknowns for 2025–26
Unlike recent offseasons, this year’s roster still has a few question marks. Several rookies are making strong pushes out of camp, and late adjustments could happen depending on who earns spots. That makes projecting games played a little trickier, so I’ve leaned conservative with totals.
Another wrinkle: a lot of Kraken players are entering the final year of their contracts. If Seattle falls out of playoff contention by the deadline, it wouldn’t be surprising to see veterans moved to contenders for future assets. That uncertainty isn’t baked into this forecast, but it’s definitely a storyline to monitor.
Departures and Arrivals for 2025–26
From a pure goal-scoring standpoint, the only notable departure from last season is Bjorkstrand, who was traded to Tampa Bay at the deadline.
The Kraken made two trades this offseason that should help replace some of the goal scoring lost from last year’s roster. First, they acquired Mason Marchment from the cap-strapped Dallas Stars in mid-June. Marchment brings size, physicality, and a proven middle-six scoring touch, with three straight seasons of double-digit goals. Just a week later, the Kraken added Freddy Gaudreau from the Minnesota Wild. Gaudreau isn’t as flashy offensively, but he’s versatile, defensively reliable, and can chip in 10–15 goals while playing anywhere in the lineup (he had 18 last season and 19 in 2022-23). Together, the pair should provide depth scoring and stability that will help offset the loss of Oliver Bjorkstrand.
Based on last year’s production, the Kraken lost 41 goals but brought in 35 — and that’s in 112 fewer games played. That gap is where potential rookies like Berkly Catton, Jani Nyman, and a handful of other candidates could step in and contribute.
Scoring forecast approach
As in past seasons, I’m using each player’s last three years of games played and adjusted goals to project for 2025–26. Games played is the trickiest part to forecast — I leaned on each player’s historical average, but I’ll make the occasional subjective adjustment if I think the production rate doesn’t quite line up.
Yes, some guys have averaged 75-plus games per season, but as we saw with Eberle and Gourde last year, injuries are inevitable. Since it’s nearly impossible to predict who will go down, I also take a conservative approach to projecting games played for the upcoming season.
Forwards forecast
The most difficult part of this forecast is figuring out games played and goals for the rookies. Take Jani Nyman, for example — he scored three goals in 12 games with the Kraken during his late-season call-up and added 28 goals in 58 games for Coachella Valley. He’s a natural goal scorer, so 10 goals in 50 NHL games feels conservative… but that’s probably the right cautious estimate for now, because it’s impossible to say if he’ll be a full-time NHLer.
Berkly Catton is even tougher to predict. He’s either going to play fewer than nine games (because he burns the first year of his entry-level contract if the Kraken keep him for longer than that) or more than 50 — not much in between. I’ve been leaning toward the higher end, but without full certainty, I split the difference and set his forecast at 40 games.
Outside of the rookies, there are a couple of eyebrow-raisers in the model. Shane Wright’s 18.9-goal projection feels a little light, while Jared McCann’s looks a bit heavy. But that’s the nature of an aggregate forecast: some players run hot, some cold, and ideally it all balances out.
Defensemen forecast
Forecasting the defensemen is a bit more straightforward. The top six are pretty well set heading into the season, with Josh Mahura likely sliding into the seventh spot if everyone stays healthy. The one new face, Ryan Lindgren, brings plenty of defensive reliability but isn’t exactly known for his goal scoring.
One player who could push the totals higher is Ryker Evans. He’s shown steady progress the last couple of years, and it wouldn’t be surprising if he chipped in a bit more offense as his role continues to grow.
Putting it together
When you combine the forwards and defensemen, the forecast lands at 246.3 adjusted goals for the 2025–26 season. That’s a 16-goal bump over last year, a total that would’ve ranked ninth in the NHL in 2024–25. It feels a little optimistic, but we’ll stick with it for now.
Other considerations
- Coaching/system tweaks – The biggest change this offseason came behind the bench with the hiring of Lane Lambert. His teams have been known for playing structured, defensively sound hockey. That could tighten things up in Seattle’s end, but Lambert has also emphasized that creating turnovers in the defensive zone can fuel offense. How that balance plays out will be worth tracking. Lambert mentioned he thought Nyman’s goal in Seattle’s 5-3 preseason win over Vancouver was an excellent example of this. “The thing that excited me about that goal was that it started in the D-zone,” Lambert said. “We killed the play, and then it ended up in the back of their net. So from my perspective, that’s what we’re talking about when we’re talking about defense translating into offense.”
- Power play – Seattle finished 23rd in the league on the power play last year, leaving plenty of room for improvement. With a new staff and some fresh personnel looks, there’s cautious optimism that the power play could finally take a step forward.
- Injuries – The ultimate wild card. If the Kraken’s top six can stay mostly healthy, it would go a long way toward hitting (or even exceeding) this forecast.
Will Seattle improve offensively?
My projection for the Kraken’s 2025–26 season comes in at 246.3 adjusted goals, a 16-goal bump from last year. That total would have ranked ninth in the NHL a season ago. Still, the big questions remain: can the young players fighting for roster spots make an impact right away, and how much will Lambert’s system influence scoring, for better or worse?
For now, Kraken fans should keep expectations measured but optimistic. There’s clear upside here, but also plenty of volatility depending on health, development, and where the team sits at the trade deadline. As the season progresses, I’ll layer in adjusted-goals-against numbers to give a full playoff outlook and track how close (or far) this projection ends up.
What do you think, are my numbers too high, too low, or just right? Drop your thoughts in the comments below.