Preseason 2026 NHL Draft data-only watchlist

With CHL seasons now underway, junior hockey leagues across the world are back on the ice for games. That means it’s time to publish our annual “preseason” NHL Draft watchlist. Several public scouting and analysis resources have published lists with a handful high-end players to watch. We’re digging deeper, giving you a list of 200 first-time eligible and 100 re-entry candidates for you to follow as the season progresses.

The “Data Score” approach

This is not a traditional scouting assessment of prospects. Instead, as in years past, we built our watchlist using quantifiable data only. Think of it as a supplement to the scouting and analytical work on prospects being published by other sources like Elite Prospects. It can be revealing in its areas of agreement or disagreement with the work of traditional scouting services.

What does our data-only analysis involve? As I have done in years past when looking at NHL Draft prospects (or NHL-affiliated prospects), I have organized this player list by “Data Score”—a rough metric we came up with here at Sound Of Hockey. Data Score begins with the bedrock of an NHL equivalency (“NHLe”). NHLe is a method to compare the scoring proficiency of players in the various professional and junior leagues across the globe. I used Thibaud Chatel’s model, which is the most up-to-date public research in the area. Check out Chatel’s Substack for an in-depth discussion of NHLe. For this project, I used Chatel’s newest model, which has been updated to account for 2024-25 season data.

What’s new this year? In contrast with years past when I looked at only a one-year sample to create this list, this time I applied this NHLe to multiple years of scoring data for these prospects—specifically the 2023-24 and 2024-25 seasons. More recent play is given more weight. I think this is an important upgrade to the approach and one I will be continuing to iterate on moving forward.

After deriving an NHLe from the scoring data, I then make adjustments for age, height, and position, as well as a modest upward adjustment to the NHLe for low-scoring players playing in high-level professional leagues. I then normalize the resulting output and call it the prospect’s “Data Score.” This number no longer projects NHL scoring but is (hopefully) useful in describing the relative strength of prospects. I’ve gone through the methodology in more detail previously here and here.

After refining my data-gathering methods, the full watchlist, which will be made available to Sound Of Hockey Patreon members shortly, covers approximately 25,000 draft eligible skaters. This is up dramatically from the lists of approximately 10,000 skaters I have made in previous years.

The 2026 NHL Draft watchlist

The draft has at least one elite player at the top in Gavin McKenna. I compiled all potentially draft-eligible prospects for the 2026 NHL Draft before filtering out those who had already been selected in previous drafts. Even if those drafted players were left in consideration, Gavin McKenna would be the second overall prospect on the list, behind only Macklin Celebrini, who played last year in the NHL. McKenna’s scoring profile, at his age, is rare.

Beyond McKenna, the top 10 to 15 of this draft looks quite strong. Forward Ryan Roobroeck’s name seems to get lost in the shuffle when discussing the high-end players in this class, but he has piled up 139 points in 127 OHL games over the last two seasons for the Niagara IceDogs. He has the chance to be a star. Beyond him, there are a number of interesting defense prospects, including two-way force Keaton Verhoeff and the QMJHL’s undersized point-producing dynamo Xavier Villeneuve.

Revisiting the 2025 NHL Draft preseason list

How much can you learn about a player’s draft projection from looking at biometric data and scoring data from seasons before the draft year in question? As you might expect, it’s not perfect. Players—particularly first-time draft-eligible players—often take a very large statistical leap in their draft seasons as they continue to mature.

For example, Matthew Schaefer averaged only .30 points per game in his draft-minus-one year, which contributed to his placement at No. 57 overall on the 2025 NHL Draft preseason watchlist. He then proceeded to electrify scouts with his international play and piled up 1.29 points per game in the OHL in an injury-shortened draft season en route to becoming the No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 NHL Draft.

Could another elite player emerge from lower in the top 100 this year? It’s certainly possible. And there are always going to be players that teams and scouts “like” (or “dislike”) more than their scoring data would suggest.

That said, it is remarkable how much you can learn even from scoring data predating the draft year. Looking back at the top-32 first-time eligible prospects on our 2025 NHL Draft preseason watchlist, draftniks will see a lot of familiar names. Nine of the top-11 picks are there, as are 15 first-round picks overall. If you extend to look at the first-time eligible skaters ranked from 33 to 64 on our preseason list, you’ll find seven more first-round ricks, including Schaefer.

Similarly, if you rewind to our 2024 NHL Draft preseason watchlist, you’ll find that four-of-the-top five picks in the 2024 Draft were in our preseason top 32, as well as 15 first-round picks overall.

These results almost replicate the success rate of source-consulting prospect analysts evaluating the prospect landscape at this time of year. For example, last year at this time, Corey Pronman—who is as well-sourced as any prospect analyst currently working—correctly predicted 19 first-round skaters on his initial 2025 draft first-round board.

The accuracy of the watchlist as a predictive tool declines the deeper you go into it, but the success rate at the top of the list gives me confidence that the Data Score approach can serve its purpose as a guide to tracking players who could end being high draft picks.

Other watchlist takeaways and local connections

The run of top prospects playing junior hockey in the Pacific Northwest has not broken yet. No. 11 ranked Mathis Preston and No. 18 ranked Chase Harrington will play for the Spokane Chiefs of the WHL this season. And even though the Victoria Royals lost Verhoeff to the University of North Dakota there are other intriguing prospects playing throughout the WHL’s Western Conference. No. 6 ranked defenseman Ryan Lin will play for the Vancouver Giants and No. 13 ranked defenseman Carson Carels will play for the Prince George Cougars.

Looking at the league landscape, eight players on our preseason top-32 first-time eligible prospects watchlist played their draft minus-one seasons in the WHL, which tied with the OHL for most overall. Add in 3 from the QMJHL and 19 of the top 32 played in the CHL. This underscores the strength of that league—at least before the NCAA rule changes that resulted in several prominent players opting to play college hockey in their draft years, including Verhoeff and McKenna.

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Do you have any questions? Reach out to us in the comments below or on Twitter/X @deepseahockey or @sound_hockey or on BlueSky at @deepseahockey or @soundofhockey.com.

Header photo of Mathis Preston taken by Brian Liesse, courtesy Seattle Thunderbirds.