Yes, the 2023 NHL Draft was just over a month ago. But a love of the draft knows no offseason. So, here we are, in August 2023, before the 2023-24 hockey season has even started, with a post about the 2024 NHL Draft.

Specifically, we are here to present a preseason data-only ranking of (1) the top 100 first-time-eligible prospects and (2) the top 100 re-draft prospects for the 2024 NHL Draft.

Important note on using the data-only ranking: If you want to filter the data by various categories, highlight row 2, then select “Data,” “Filter Views,” and “Create New Temporary Filter View.” This will allow you to manipulate the data in a way visible only to you.

Building the 2024 NHL Draft preseason data-only ranking

In the lead up to this year’s draft, I produced a data-only list of top prospects to monitor. After reflecting on that project, I arrived at the conclusion that the list might be more useful early in the season as a reference point for monitoring players. In some sense, this is how teams use data. It’s most useful to identify players and aid further research and scouting. The same is true on the public side. Who should we be monitoring as we launch into the 2023-24 season? The data can help provide an answer to that question at least.

As I did in advance of the 2023 draft, I built this ranking using an NHL equivalency (or “NHLe”) calculation, but I made three minor adjustments to my approach this time around. First, for my equivalency calculation, I transitioned to using Thibaud Chatel’s NHLe since it is the most up-to-date work in the public sphere.

Second, I have stopped ranking goaltenders for now. I want to improve my method for converting goalie data into a ranking. Hopefully, I can do that before the 2024 draft.

Third, I introduced one new adjustment, boosting the equivalency of a small handful of low-scoring, pro-level skaters. Chace McCallum recently dug in on this issue and found some data suggests that low-scoring draft-eligible players are underrated by conventional NHLe calculations. This is intuitive because one could imagine a scenario where a strong junior player is elevated to a pro league but gets short ice time in a depth role and gets very little opportunity to score. 

Kraken prospect Zeb Forsfjall is an example from the 2023 draft. He earned his way to the SHL but played limited minutes in a defensive fourth-line role and tallied only one goal in 18 games. If he had remained in the junior ranks, his equivalency likely would have been stronger. So, the adjustment removes the NHLe “penalty” associated with a coaching decision to move a player up who might not be ready for a scoring role at a higher level.

Aron Kiviharju is the primary example so far in the 2024 draft. Impressively, he played 21 games for TPS in Liiga in his draft-minus-one season. But, as one might expect, he didn’t register many points (zero goals and three assists). Still, Kiviharju should be credited, not penalized, for achieving a promotion to this top-level professional league at such a young age.

This new adjustment is modest and applies to only a few players, but it is an important step to address a potential flaw in my earlier approach, which likely caused my adjusted NHLe ranking to undervalue players like Forsfjall or Dimitry Simashev.

Beyond those changes, I proceeded in similar fashion to my 2023 data-only ranking. I made modest adjustments to a player’s NHLe calculation for (1) re-draft status, (2) age, and (3) height, each of which have been shown to be linked to prospect success rates. On average, a six-foot-two winger who scores at the same rate as a five-foot-seven winger in junior hockey is more likely to contribute at the NHL level. Likewise, a player who scores a point per game as an 18-year-old is more likely to become an NHL regular than a player who reaches that threshold for the first time as a 21-year-old.

Finally, as before, I then made a modest adjustment to bump up the ranking of defensemen relative to forwards, since, arguably, a high-scoring blueliner is more valuable than a similarly high-scoring forward.

An important season is in front of these players

The most important distinction between this preseason 2024 draft project and my final 2023 draft ranking from a couple months ago is that I am building this preseason ranking on each player’s production one year out from the draft. For first-time draft-eligible players, this is often called the player’s “draft-minus-one” season. 

All of these players have another full season ahead to change their draft stock. First-time draft eligibles often break out as noteworthy draft prospects only during this upcoming “draft” season. By contrast, some players that look like high first-round picks in their draft-minus-one year can recede into a middle-round consideration with a mediocre draft season. Cameron Allen is an example of this phenomenon from the 2023 draft.

Either way, this data is not the end of the story for these prospects. I plan to check in with a new data-only ranking midway through the 2023-24 season and then provide the final data-only list before the 2024 draft.

Without further preamble, again, here is the link to the rankings. I split the lists because very few first-time draft eligibles measure up to the production of the re-draft candidates in their draft-minus-one seasons, even after the adjustments. First-time eligibles need to make a big a jump in their draft season, so it’s best to consider them separately here.

Top 100 first-time draft-eligible skaters

RankNamePositionHeight (ft. in.)Weight (lbs)TeamLeagueGPGA
1Macklin CelebriniF5’11”181Chicago SteelUSHL524640
2Cole EisermanLW5’11”192Multiple TeamsNTDP626935
3Ivan DemidovRW/C5’11”168Multiple TeamsMHL542453
4Cole HutsonD5’8″143Multiple TeamsNTDP611058
5Zayne ParekhD6’0″170Saginaw SpiritOHL612719
6Tanner HoweF5’10”181Regina PatsWHL743851
7Konsta HeleniusC/RW5’10”168Tappara U20U20 SM-sarja19820
8Beckett SenneckeRW6’2″181Oshawa GeneralsOHL662135
9Anthony CristoforoD5’11”174Windsor SpitfiresOHL67736
10Igor ChernyshovLW6’2″192MHK Dynamo MoskvaMHL381820
11Mac SwansonF5’7″165Fargo ForceUSHL661550
12Ryder RitchieF6’0″174Prince Albert RaidersWHL612035
13Trevor ConnellyF6’1″161Tri-City StormUSHL602625
14Artyom LevshunovD6’2″198Green Bay GamblersUSHL651330
15Liam GreentreeRW6’2″194Windsor SpitfiresOHL652521
16Carter YakemchukD6’2″194Calgary HitmenWHL721931
17Justin PoirierRW5’8″181Baie-Comeau DrakkarQMJHL623225
18Maxim MasséRW6’1″181Chicoutimi SaguenéensQMJHL702934
19Henry MewsD6’0″185Ottawa 67’sOHL661322
20Berkly CattonF5’11”163Spokane ChiefsWHL632332
21Andrew BashaF5’11”174Medicine Hat TigersWHL712337
22Simon ZetherC6’3″187Rögle BK J20J20 Nationell431432
23Michael Brandsegg-NygårdRW6’1″194Mora IK J20J20 Nationell351721
24Matvei BabenkoRW6’3″201Tolpar UfaMHL502614
25Riley PattersonC6’0″176North York RangersOJHL563145
26Topias HynninenRW5’10”165Jukurit U20U20 SM-sarja391226
27Will FelicioD5’10”161Madison CapitolsUSHL55424
28Zeev BuiumD5’11”165U.S. National U18 TeamNTDP63535
29Cayden LindstromF6’5″190Medicine Hat TigersWHL651924
30Yegor SurinC/RW5’10”174Multiple TeamsMHL581623
31Aron KiviharjuD5’10”165TPSLiiga2103
32Nikita ArtamonovRW5’11”187Multiple TeamsMHL631428
33Oleg TrofimchukF6’1″165Mamonty YugryMHL501517
34Alexander ShenC/RW5’11”192Mamonty YugryMHL461315
35Alexandre BlaisLW5’10”154Rimouski OcéanicQMJHL73939
36Alexander KimF5’11”161Ässät U18U18 SM-sarja413139
37Alexander ZetterbergC5’8″159Örebro HK J20J20 Nationell451123
38Adam JiricekD6’1″152HC Plzeň U20Czechia U20421217
39Yegor GrafC5’11”161Multiple TeamsMHL531018
40Akseli PulkkanenF5’9″159KalPa U18U18 SM-sarja221518
41Eriks MateikoLW6’4″201Saint John Sea DogsQMJHL671720
42Maxim VelikovF6’1″198Krasnaya Armiya MoskvaMHL36910
43Adam TitlbachC5’8″150HC Plzeň U20Czechia U20351120
44Jan KuceraC6’2″181HC Olomouc U20Czechia U20501428
45Mark SlivchenkoF5’9″161Multiple TeamsMHL46139
46Carson WetschF6’2″185Calgary HitmenWHL501111
47Onni KontunenD5’10”163SaiPa/Ketterä U18U18 SM-sarja391328
48Jamiro ReberC5’10”172Langnau U20U20 Elit531139
49Tim EkmanFSport U18U18 SM-sarja371829
50Adam JechoRW6’3″187Tappara U18U18 SM-sarja392126
51Pavel BurmistrovLW/RW5’11”161Multiple TeamsMHL2674
52Rasmus SvartströmF6’4″201KooKoo U18U18 SM-sarja422328
53Natan TeshomeRW5’11”152Jokerit U18U18 SM-sarja401929
54Artyom KrikunenkoC5’9″174Loko-76 YaroslavlMHL41810
55Tomas MrsicC5’10”154Medicine Hat TigersWHL62917
56Leonid KolodiyLW/RW6’0″159Belye Medvedi ChelyabinskMHL3039
57Artyom ShchuchinovD5’11”154Belye Medvedi ChelyabinskMHL41310
58Eemeli HeiniläD6’1″187Ässät U18U18 SM-sarja421125
59Lukas KralLW5’11”163Mountfield HK U20Czechia U20451317
60Alexander BazhukhinW/C6’1″172Ladia TogliattiMHL49109
61Tij IginlaF6’0″181Seattle ThunderbirdsWHL51613
62Alexander PlesovskikhF6’0″172Mamonty YugryMHL4178
63Ivan KornilovD5’10”172Multiple TeamsMHL56115
64Roman LuttsevC5’11”154Multiple TeamsMHL60914
65Ilya IvanovF5’11”165Team Belarus U18Belarus Vysshaya603545
66Louie WehmannF6’1″201Providence AcademyUSHS-MN264437
67Radek TomasF5’10”170HC Dynamo Pardubice U20Czechia U20541719
68Danila BulatovF5’9″157AKM-Junior Tula RegionMHL45810
69Danila SysoyevF5’10”174Omskie YastrebyMHL4388
70Marat KalimullinD6’2″161Ladia TogliattiMHL5059
71Vojtech HradecF6’3″185BK Mladá Boleslav U20Czechia U20531320
72David TimofejevF5’9″148Kiekko-Vantaa U18U18 SM-sarja382017
73Carson PilgrimF5’11”165Warroad HighUSHS-MN315240
74Noah UrnessF5’10”168Roseau HighUSHS-MN284541
75Juuso LehtimäkiFTUTO Hockey U18U18 SM-sarja291414
76Artur FaizovF6’1″183Mamonty YugryMHL38103
77Leo TuuvaF5’11”150Lukko U18U18 SM-sarja401621
78Alexandre GuyRW6’2″201Val-d’Or ForeursQMJHL66177
79Mark CorbettC6’2″185Roncalli CardinalsCanadian High School Hockey203127
80Bulat AkhsyanovF5’8″154Tolpar UfaMHL42510
81Santeri KuusistoDSport U18U18 SM-sarja41920
82Sevastian KapchukF5’9″150Multiple TeamsMHL4359
83Stian SolbergD6’2″190VålerengaEliteserien1813
84Veeti RäsänenFMultiple TeamsU18 SM-sarja401516
85Arseni MarchenkoD6’6″207Team Belarus U17Belarus Vysshaya541028
86Lukas FischerD6’4″181Sarnia StingOHL6338
87Ollie JosephsonF5’11”176Red Deer RebelsWHL75715
88Jonatan TiilikainenFJYP U18U18 SM-sarja411418
89Pavol ProkopovicF6’1″205HK Michalovce U20Slovakia U2024910
90Thomas KonkowskiF5’7″141Sachem HighUSHS-NY152416
91Artyom GumenyukLW6’2″187Amurskie Tigry KhabarovskMHL50105
92Ondrej MarunaC6’4″198Team Slovakia U181.liga (Slovakia)2464
93Vojtech SpevacekRW5’9″159HC Oceláři Třinec U20Czechia U20591318
94Matias PiirainenFMultiple TeamsU18 SM-sarja341511
95Nikita AfanasyevD6’1″185Kapitan StupinoMHL59310
96Emil ErikssonFKiekko-Espoo U18 ChU18 SM-sarja441913
97Andrei KrutovLW/RW5’11”174Chaika Nizhny NovgorodMHL5186
98Kamden KaiserF6’1″190Northfield HighUSHS-MN304026
99Yevgeni AvramenkoF5’11”152Progress GrodnoBelarus Vysshaya552823
100Aatu KarvinenF5’9″154Jokerit U18U18 SM-sarja381217

Top 100 re-draft skaters

RankNamePositionHeight (ft. in.)Weight (lbs)TeamLeagueGPGA
1German TochilkinF6’3″179Khimik VoskresenskVHL21314
2Oskar AsplundD5’11”172Almtuna ISAllsvenskan51724
3Dmitri UtkinC6’0″181HK SochiKHL1933
4Yegor KlimovichF5’9″159Sibirskie Snaipery NovosibirskMHL412032
5Grigori KuzminLW5’10”187SKA-Neva St. PetersburgVHL22512
6Valtteri ViirretD5’8″181ÄssätLiiga39214
7Elmeri LaaksoD6’1″185SaiPaLiiga3247
8Ivan KlimovichC6’2″174Sibirskie Snaipery NovosibirskMHL402530
9Raul YakupovF6’1″183Reaktor NizhnekamskMHL493229
10Antti VirtanenC/W5’11”181SaiPa U20U20 SM-sarja352529
11Tigran YarulinF6’2″203HK SochiKHL2836
12Daniil O. IvanovD6’5″209Khimik VoskresenskVHL561311
13Kirill VasilyevD5’10”163Ryazan-VDVVHL1717
14Hannes HellbergF6’1″190Leksands IF J20J20 Nationell493830
15Theo KeilinC/LW5’11”181Skellefteå AIK J20J20 Nationell311238
16Daniil SotishviliF5’11”170Dinamo-Shinnik BobruyskMHL522441
17Yegor VinogradovC/RW6’2″181Torpedo Nizhny NovgorodKHL63712
18Dylan HryckowianRW5’10”170Cedar Rapids RoughRidersUSHL662643
19Helmer StyfC5’11”176MoDo Hockey J20J20 Nationell392925
20Radel ZamaltdinovF5’10”168Irbis KazanMHL1586
21Ethan WhitcombRW6’4″201Muskegon LumberjacksUSHL532426
22Artyom KashtanovF6’6″190Avto YekaterinburgMHL491628
23Ben RobertsonD5’10”183Waterloo Black HawksUSHL64442
24William ProosLW6’3″192Almtuna IS J20J20 Nationell201315
25Karl UmegårdF5’9″170MoDo Hockey J20J20 Nationell463336
26Ivan AnoshkoC5’10”168Dinamo-Shinnik BobruyskMHL552133
27Andon CerboneF5’9″163Multiple TeamsUSHL732943
28Magomed SharakanovD6’1″201MHK Dynamo MoskvaMHL50828
29Yegor SmirnovC5’10”163Almaz CherepovetsMHL482321
30Lucas Lagerberg HoenD6’1″181Leksands IF J20J20 Nationell521338
31Alexander MorozovF5’10”168Sakhalinskiye AkulyMHL533521
32Nikita BlednovF5’10”165Avto YekaterinburgMHL461534
33Simone TerraneoD5’11”190HCB Ticino RocketsSwiss League35318
34Jake LivanavageD5’10”174Chicago SteelUSHL54633
35Victor SjöholmD5’9″179HV71SHL3728
36Daniil DavydovC/LW5’11”176MHK Dynamo St. PetersburgMHL541340
37Vyacheslav MalovRW5’8″176Omskie YastrebyMHL652340
38Ville RuotsalainenD5’9″165KalPa U20U20 SM-sarja26721
39Alexei YegorovD6’3″181Spartak MoskvaKHL1712
40Yaroslav TsulyginD6’0″157Toros NeftekamskVHL2125
41Vasili DronykF6’5″209Krasnaya Armiya MoskvaMHL361818
42Artyom MisnikovLW5’10”157Chaika Nizhny NovgorodMHL491639
43Alexander LazarevF6’0″181Tyumenski LegionMHL472423
44Joonatan LempiäinenW5’10”172SaiPa U20U20 SM-sarja311423
45Aaron HakalaRW/C5’11”176TPS U20U20 SM-sarja371331
46Robert ChernovF6’4″198Reaktor NizhnekamskMHL451927
47Yelisei KarpovF6’3″187MHK Dynamo St. PetersburgMHL531729
48Mischa RamelC5’6″159EHC WinterthurSwiss League36922
49Avval BaisovF6’0″187Mamonty YugryMHL531632
50Nikita NedopyokinC5’10”187SKA-1946 St. PetersburgMHL471722
51Emil MelanderD6’1″170Timrå IK J20J20 Nationell531640
52Ryan HopkinsD6’1″183Penticton VeesBCHL511044
53Dennis VärmhedC6’2″194Timrå IK J20J20 Nationell513238
54Semyon SinyatkinF5’11”176MHK Dynamo St. PetersburgMHL512720
55Cale AshcroftD5’10”185Tri-City StormUSHL66834
56Mikhail NizovkinLW5’11”176AKM TulaMHL583132
57Ilya IvantsovF5’10”154Severstal CherepovetsKHL70216
58Matvei MaximovF5’10”179MHK Dynamo MoskvaMHL562224
59Rasmus RudslättRW6’0″181AIK J20J20 Nationell452526
60Yegor GorbunovF6’1″187Belye Medvedi ChelyabinskMHL341417
61Oskar HaasC/W6’0″163HC Oceláři Třinec U20Czechia U20262122
62Valdemar JohanssonC/LW5’11”172Multiple TeamsJ20 Nationell221216
63Miroslav MikhalyovF5’10”157Dinamo-Shinnik BobruyskMHL542529
64Yaroslav BusyginD6’3″187Vityaz Moscow RegionKHL4622
65Konsta KapanenLW5’9″161KalPa U20U20 SM-sarja23722
66Ivan RyabovF5’11”185MHK Krylia Sovetov MoskvaMHL33917
67Onni LeppänenC/W5’8″165Jokerit U20U20 SM-sarja311325
68Nikolai KhvorovF6’1″168Omskie YastrebyMHL621239
69Jeremi TammelaC5’9″179Lukko U20U20 SM-sarja452135
70Maxim MaltsevC5’11”201Loko YaroslavlMHL592424
71Maxim SapezhnikovRW5’8″179Amurskie Tigry KhabarovskMHL461822
72Gleb Al. IvanovD6’0″176Torpedo Nizhny NovgorodKHL5915
73Adrian CarneboD6’2″185Djurgårdens IF J20J20 Nationell49733
74Maddox FlemingRW6’1″194Sioux Falls StampedeUSHL591334
75Dakota MacIntoshC6’2″201Alberni Valley BulldogsBCHL502834
76Dmitri KatelevskyC6’0″174Bars KazanVHL1972
77Sam CourtD5’10”190Brooks BanditsAJHL671364
78Otto HokkanenC/W6’2″187SaiPa U20U20 SM-sarja251116
79Tommaso De LucaC/LW6’0″187Spokane ChiefsWHL651633
80Matvei LadutkoF5’11”183Dinamo-Shinnik BobruyskMHL511622
81Luke WoodworthC5’9″154Drummondville VoltigeursQMJHL772049
82Dylan GodboutF5’11”185Sioux City MusketeersUSHL641435
83Vladislav RazdyakonovF5’10”150Avto YekaterinburgMHL572718
84Chase PietilaD6’1″185Youngstown PhantomsUSHL69734
85Vladislav RomanovLW6’2″192SKA-1946 St. PetersburgMHL531728
86Eli SebastianC6’0″185Green Bay GamblersUSHL651732
87Ruslan GimbatovF6’5″209MHK Dynamo St. PetersburgMHL361117
88Andrei KozlovF5’8″157Stalnye Lisy MagnitogorskMHL542217
89Robin SapousekC6’0″148HC Energie Karlovy Vary U20Czechia U20211514
90Ilya KvochkoC/LW5’9″168Stalnye Lisy MagnitogorskMHL511132
91Martin JohnsenC5’10”176Färjestad BK J20J20 Nationell361425
92Nikolaus HeiglF5’10”174RB Hockey JuniorsAlps Hockey League201122
93Nikolai DumchenkoD6’4″203MHK Dynamo St. PetersburgMHL49823
94Ilya RogovskyC/LW5’11”179Multiple TeamsMHL612027
95Venni TolppolaC/RW6’0″163Lukko U20U20 SM-sarja35927
96Miro JärvenpääF6’1″170Lukko U20U20 SM-sarja431831
97Filipp PermyakovLW6’1″172Tolpar UfaMHL551734
98Vladimir KorobintsevF6’0″161Mamonty YugryMHL582327
99Vadim FattakhovF5’8″143MHK Spartak MoskvaMHL472516
100Daniil LipskyF6’1″181Dinamo-Shinnik BobruyskMHL551326

Curtis Isacke

Curtis is a Sound Of Hockey contributor and member of the Kraken press corps. Curtis is an attorney by day, and he has read the NHL collective bargaining agreement and bylaws so you don’t have to. He can be found analyzing the Kraken, NHL Draft, and other hockey topics on Twitter and Threads @deepseahockey.

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