Folks who follow the Seattle Kraken, myself included, expected Shane Wright to take another step in his development this season. Although the results have not surfaced yet, a deeper look at his analytics shows progress. It also highlights areas where the 21-year-old center still needs to grow.
Statistics are from MoneyPuck at 5-on-5 play unless otherwise noted.
The Wright stuff
Expected goals
Expected goals for (xGF) estimates how likely a shot is to become a goal based on shot type and location. While xGF models do not account for defenders or goaltenders, those real-world factors help explain why expected goals do not always match actual goals scored. Wright leads all Kraken skaters in xGF per 60 minutes at even strength at 0.95. Last season he posted 0.61, making this a significant jump.
In addition to leading the Kraken, Wright has been part of a line performing at the top of the NHL. Since Kaapo Kakko returned from injury, he has spent the most 5-on-5 time with Wright and Jani Nyman. The trio averages 7.79 xGF per 60 minutes, the highest mark in the NHL.
The sample size is small, but any time you are in the statistical neighborhood of players like Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Nikita Kucherov, and Jake Guentzel, it is worth noting. This has been Wright’s most frequent line combination, though the group has only logged just over 43 minutes at even strength. Expected goals are not actual goals, though, and the trio has only two goals to show for their strong underlying play.
Still, the line is generating offense and could spark production on a team struggling to score. In fact, it got on the board in the most recent game against Colorado.
Constant injuries have created a rotating cast of linemates for Wright, making chemistry difficult to build. Wright has played on 12 different line combinations, the most among Kraken centers. Chandler Stephenson has played on 10 combinations, Freddy Gaudreau has been on seven, and Matty Beniers six.
Blocked shots
Wright continues to sacrifice his body, ranking third in Kraken forwards in blocked shots. At 3.56 blocks per 60 minutes at even strength, he only trails Eeli Tolvanen at 4.17 and Berkly Catton at 3.61. What makes this notable is Wright starts just 5.6 percent of his shifts in the defensive zone, so when he is on defense, he’s doing a good job of getting in shooting lanes.
Blocking shots is not new to Wright’s game. He led Kraken forwards last season at 3.96 blocks per 60 when he had nearly double the percentage (10.8) of defensive-zone starts under former head coach Dan Bylsma.
Shots on goal
Although Wright only has six goals, one fewer than he had through 31 games last season, he is generating more shots on goal. Last season he averaged 4.91 shots on goal per 60 minutes. This season he has increased that number by 32.2 percent to 6.49. Just as important, his overall shot attempts have remained consistent, rising from 11.01 per 60 minutes last season to 11.88 this year. The result is a higher share of those attempts reaching the net.
Wright is also getting into better scoring areas. MoneyPuck defines rebound shots as attempts within three seconds of a previous shot. Wright recorded seven rebound shots all of last season. Through 31 games, he already has 12, which leads Kraken forwards.
The (W)right opportunities
As Wright continues his development, a few areas could still use some attention. First, let’s look at his line deployment. Coaches choose matchups based on face-off location and opponent, directing players to start shifts in the offensive, neutral, or defensive zones. Wright has been deployed in the offensive zone 17.9 percent of the time, 15.3 percent in the neutral zone, and just 5.6 percent in the defensive zone at 5-on-5. The rest of his shifts, 61.2 percent, start on-the-fly while the puck is in play. In theory, on-the-fly shifts tend to begin when the Kraken have puck possession or after a dump-in.
Given that Wright starts most often in the offensive zone, strong possession numbers would be expected. Corsi measures shot attempts for and against while a player is on the ice, with 50 percent representing an even split. Wright sits at 49 percent, meaning opponents generate more shot attempts than Seattle when he is on the ice. That is notable given his favorable deployment.
Sound Of Hockey’s Darren Brown spoke with head coach Lane Lambert about this topic after a practice earlier this week in the context of Chandler Stephenson, whose analytics are consistently poor.
Darren asked:
“Chandler Stephenson, with the publicly available analytic models on him, it never shows very kindly. What doesn’t show up in those models that kind of makes you rely on him as much as you do?”
Lambert said:
“Face-offs, he plays against the other team’s best players every night, he always gets the toughest matchups. So, it’s easy to sit back and look at the analytics, and you would like them to be a little better, sure. If we played him down in the third line, he’d have great analytics, probably. So you’ve got to keep it in perspective here. This guy plays a ton of minutes for us, he does a ton of things for us, and they’re hard minutes.”
This piece focuses on Wright, but Lambert’s response is a reminder of how usage and matchups can skew metrics. Lambert notes Stephenson would likely post stronger analytics in a third-line role. By the same logic, Wright’s numbers are benefiting from easier matchups compared to veterans handling heavier defensive assignments.
Face-offs and giveaways
Face-offs and giveaways help explain this. Wright has won 39.3 percent of his face-offs, last among Kraken centers. He posted 43.5 percent last season. Face-off winning percentages do not tell you everything about possession, but with a sub-50 Corsi, it suggests opponents gain control more often.
Giveaways are another area for improvement. Wright led the Kraken forwards with 65 giveaways last season in all situations. He currently has 30 and is on pace for 79, an increase over last year’s mark. Wright may be trending toward another high giveaway season, but he has been spared the top spot so far, with Mason Marchment at 38.
More concerning, Wright leads all Kraken forwards in defensive-zone giveaways (12) despite rarely starting shifts there. These totals are not normalized for ice time, but Wright ranks ninth among forwards at 14 minutes per game, and the tendency may be contributing to his continued third-line usage.
After practice on Dec. 14, Piper Shaw asked Wright what he has been focusing on personally.
“I think just consistency overall. I mean, playing well with the puck, I feel like, [I’ve been better] offensively and creating chances, and I think just being able to be [trusted] a little more defensively, stronger plays in the zone, in my own end, stuff I can clean up a little bit. But yeah, just trying to keep trending in the right direction.”
Still room to grow
It is no secret the Kraken have struggled offensively, scoring just 2.48 goals per game, dead last in the NHL. They also rank last by a wide margin in total goals scored (77), though they have played the fewest games (31) in the NHL. Generating offense remains a priority.
Fans often look at players like Connor Bedard or Macklin Celebrini and hope for a similar breakout from one of Seattle’s prospects. That is not a fair or realistic benchmark for most young players. Development is rarely linear. Wright turns 22 on Jan. 5 and still has room to grow. Patience remains necessary, but the analytics point to positive progress. If the Kraken can stay healthy and find stable lines, Wright’s production may soon reflect the improvement happening less visibly.
Blaiz Grubic
Blaiz Grubic is a contributor at Sound Of Hockey. A passionate hockey fan and player for over 30 years, Blaiz grew up in the Pacific Northwest and is an alumni of Washington State University (Go Cougs!). When he’s not playing, watching, or writing about hockey, he enjoys quality time with his wife and daughter or getting out on a golf course for a quick round. Follow @blaizg on BlueSky or X.
Is it safe to assume that until the defensive play improves under Lambert, Shane will be stuck at 14 min per game? I get it, but given his high shooting percentage, offensive skills, its hard to not want him on the ice more given how few goals the Kraken are finding this season. I can’t help but think 17-18 min of ice time would bear fruit.
I think that’s why they tried him at wing for a little while — and it makes sense; capitalize on his offense while taking some of the defensive pressure off him. He didn’t really get enough time at wing to see if it would work well given all the injuries we’ve had, but I’m hopeful it’s something they potentially try again in the future
Honestly, if they are out of it (and sell of vets) at the deadline, I’d like them to throw Shane and Matty together. Matty already does most of the defensive dirty work for his lines — I think it could really help open things up for Shane
Let’s the kids cook
Thanks Blaiz. Tons of great context here.
Go Kraken!!!
I don’t dislike this idea. Hadn’t really thought about them as linemates before, but would be interested in seeing that.
If he or his line start converting the expected goals to actual goals I think his time will go up regardless. But better management of the puck could make the decision for more time easier.
I’m curious as to why you chose to use Wright’s below 50% Corsi as a way to criticize him vs. using expected goals, especially considering your point about higher quality locations of the shots. According to xGF%, he’s first on the team and the ONLY one above 50 at 53% (besides McCann in his 11 games) at 5 on 5.
Stephenson is at 35% btw, last in the league by a mile. I’m curious how Stephenson stacks up against the other forwards in the NHL who start the majority of their draws in the D zone. I’m guessing not well considering again, he’s last by a mile for all players, forwards and D men included. He’s also significantly worse than every other member of this team, including his various linemates who have started in the D zone with him. He can be a really nice guy, a great leader, and also a really bad 5 on 5 player. We don’t have to rationalize and/or pick and choose specific plays where he put the stick in the right place, just because we’re stuck with him for another 5 seasons. Numbers don’t lie, especially over almost a season and a half. I’ll still root for him, but I’ll also root for Lambert to try any other line in the D zone, cause this one very clearly isn’t working. If Wright has growing pains, so what? He at least has a chance to improve and to learn at the NHL level. That’s what this season should be all about, and would give me actual hope for the future.
4 1/2 years…. My guess is we don’t see him in a kraken uniform that long though.
The Wright line should absolutely be getting more ice time and I’ve been saying that for awhile but we are well aware that defense is the only priority for LL and he doesn’t trust kids.
Should we be focusing more on development, I think so be the team has other ideas and until their dreams are fully broken apart and they are forced to switch things up we will get what we get.
One thing that I have to say is that it appears my eye test was backed up by stats, nice to see I’ve been thinking they look like the best line much throughout the game but just not getting the ice time they deserve.
We could get into Nyman who is always a good candidate for a scratch so LL can throw in some plug that checks tight…
We need a banner like the kraken flag we can rotate around the rink… play the kids, it’s the only thing we have to look forward to.
So when I actually take a glance at the numbers, what I see is two guys – Chandler Stephenson and Mikael Backlund – that are taking a ton of shit faceoffs and starts. After that there’s a pretty significant drop off in volume because most of the centers taking those same splits play on the third line. Yanni Gourde is a good example. He’s only taking about 43% of his draws in the offensive zone (that’s tough) but he’s got a 56% expected goals share… because he’s getting third line matchups. Backlund is way ahead of Stephenson’s dreadful 35%, he’s even positive at 52% xG share, but he’s got Nazem Kadri to draw in at No.1. I’m a huge Matty Beniers fan, but I think teams are loading up against Kadri more than they are Beniers. Simply comparing starts/faceoffs and xG% doesn’t capture the actual challenge of line matching. I’m no analytics guru and I honestly have something less than a basic understanding, but when I ask “why” the numbers are what they are, these are some of the things I find.
Stephenson is absolutely not a No.1 center… period. But his contract is already in line with a low-two, high-three and because their young centers have yet to “take that step”, he’s stuck being played above his pay grade.
I’d love to see Shane break through, but simply scoring against Colorado’s fourth line isn’t convincing. If his actual numbers can catch up to his expected numbers… then maybe they can move Stevie into the role he’s being paid for.
For now, I will focus on Wright, since I have not taken a close look at Chandler Stephenson’s metrics lately. That could be a future article.
These pieces take time to research and write. When I started digging into Wright’s numbers, his Corsi sat around 46 percent, going off memory. After the Buffalo game, it climbed to 47-48 percent, and it rose again to 49 percent following the Colorado game. I left the stat in because his line starts primarily in the offensive zone, where it would be reasonable to expect a 50+ Corsi number. Though he has been improving in this area and probably a miss to not call that out.
This ties to the giveaways as well which is where I think he is focusing on trying to improve.
Yeah, but Chandlers expensive long term contract that will last until he is getting close to 40 will look great in a few years when the Kraken turn it around. Ugh.
His contract value gets brought up over and over again and it’s tiresome to see people so ignorant to reality. The big board had him at just $500k less. 7 million will be totally manageable in the last years of his contract.
Numbers don’t lie but numbers without context are pretty meaningless. A lot of couch GMs out there seem to lack the ability to critically think about what they’re missing. Coaches play players in spots because they think it gives them the best chance to win. The smart man questions what they aren’t seeing in the data that the coach is seeing in the ground.
14:00 a game is ridiculous especially considering he’s being held back for lesser players. Wright is the one of the top 2 prospects they’ve ever had and the inability to launch him bodes very poorly for those following. His exact contemporaries are popping off all over the league yet these guys think they have some secret formula. This team is starving for exactly what he already does well.
Unreal.
Brinkley
Colton
Olofsson
Malinski
Girard
lol
I am not a stats guy but I like . My eyes see his stats and seeing Shane on second PP is a good sign and that young line has energy. I see Kakko using his big body making me smile as Shane sits in the front of the net where other forwards do not. I hate Kraken PP style but their opponents love it. Maybe it is because the Kraken suck on the boards so other teams pressure them there. We need a bigger team but are stuck due to high salaries and long terms. Francis killed this team and it will continue until the youth hit their stride in a few years
I find it a little hard to believe that playing Wright less and against worse players helps his development. In my experience with basketball playing up a level is hard at first, but you learn more and get better faster. Same with more time playing.
I do not believe that is necessarily so with hockey, some of the writers on here have said how having Chandler will help Shane develop faster. I hope that is true, I just have my doubts. Ice time for young players should be a priority. Even if it costs us a win or three in the short term. I fear part of the consideration is justifying a bad signing.