“We’re going streaking! Through the quad, and into the gymnasium!” – Frank Ricard, Old School, 2003

The Seattle Kraken have had an up-and-down season, bouncing between winning and losing streaks. Recently, the crew at Sound Of Hockey held a Mailbag segment on Episode 369 of the Sound Of Hockey Podcast. They did not get through every question, but one submission stood out to me and inspired this article.

FMammal asked on the Patreon, “Does it matter if a team is streaky the way the Kraken seem to be, or is the only important thing the point total after all 82 games?”

We are going to take this one level deeper and also explore how streaky teams perform in the playoffs.

Definitions

Let’s start by defining the types of streaks used in this analysis.

• Point streak: Three or more consecutive games in which a team earns at least one point in each game. This includes wins of any kind and overtime or shootout losses.
• Losing streak: Three or more consecutive games in which a team loses. This includes regulation losses, overtime losses and shootout losses.
• Win streak: Three or more consecutive games in which a team wins and earns two points in each game, including regulation, overtime and shootout victories.

To evaluate streakiness and playoff success, I created the following metrics:

• Streakiness tier: Low (under 49 games spent in point streaks or losing streaks), Medium (50 to 60 games), High (61 games or more).
• Balance ratio: The number of games teams are on point streaks divided by the total number of games on any streak. Any value above 0.50 means a team earned points in more games than it lost while streaking.
• Playoff depth score (PDS): Teams earn one point for making the playoffs and one point for each round won. A Stanley Cup champion earns five points. Teams that miss the playoffs earn zero. For example, when Seattle made the playoffs in 2022-23 and lost in the second round, the Kraken earned a PDS of two.

Kraken streaks this season

For this piece, streak data is based on point streaks and losing streaks, unless otherwise noted.

The Kraken rank 13th in the NHL with nine total streaks this season.

The streaks break down as follows:

1. Five-game point streak (Oct. 9–18): eight of 10 points
2. Five-game point streak (Oct. 23–Nov. 3): eight of 10 points
3. Three-game point streak (Nov. 11–15): five of six points
4. Three-game point streak (Nov. 20–23): five of six points
5. Six-game losing streak (Nov. 23–Dec. 8): one of 12 points
6. Four-game losing streak (Dec. 12–18): zero of eight points
7. 10-game point streak (Dec. 20–Jan. 8): 18 of 20 points
8. Four-game losing streak (Jan. 14–19): one of eight points
9. Four-game win streak (Jan. 25–31): eight of eight points

It may not feel like it at times, but Seattle has had six point streaks and only three losing streaks. That amounts to 30 games on point streaks and 14 games on losing streaks.

The 10-game point streak ranks sixth in the NHL this season.

Streakiness and playoff results

Data was collected only from seasons in which the Kraken have existed, covering 2021-22 through the current season.

During that span, teams with a balance ratio below 0.50 never made the playoffs. A balance ratio under 0.50 means a team spent more games on losing streaks than point streaks. Losing more games than you win is not a recipe for success.

The heatmap focuses on teams with a balance ratio of 0.51 or higher. The Kraken currently sit at 0.68, based on 30 point-streak games and 14 losing-streak games (30 of 44 games).

The results seem to align with intuition. Teams with higher balance ratios perform better in the playoffs. There is also a trend showing that playoff depth score improves as streakiness increases for teams above a 0.68 balance ratio.

• Balance ratio 0.68–0.84: PDS rises from 1.57 to 1.77, a 12.7 percent increase
• Balance ratio 0.85–1.00: PDS rises from 2.25 to 2.60, a 15.6 percent increase

The Kraken currently sit at a 0.68 balance ratio and are trending toward 67 total streak games. That would place them in the High streakiness tier.

Among the 13 teams in that bucket, 12 made the playoffs in the last four seasons, and eight reached at least the second round. The 2023-24 Edmonton Oilers advanced the furthest, losing in the Stanley Cup Final.

Seattle sits on the cutoff line. When teams drop below a 0.68 balance ratio, only eight of 16 made the playoffs. Of those eight, six entered as wild cards and two finished third in their division. In every case, those teams opened the playoffs as underdogs, drawing higher-seeded opponents and facing a steeper path to advancing.

A necessary caveat

This heatmap has a flaw.

As streakiness increases, teams with strong balance ratios are also winning more games overall. That inflates playoff success. Looking at average standings points for teams in the 0.68–0.84 bucket shows the issue clearly.

• Low streakiness: 98 points
• Medium streakiness: 102 points
• High streakiness: 106 points

It would be expected that a 106-point team would perform better in the playoffs than a 98-point team, and that is exactly what is being shown here.

Standings points matter more

Breaking standings points into buckets and slicing them by streakiness tier produces inconsistent results. If streakiness alone drove playoff success, each standings-point bucket would show the same trend. The buckets do not show this.

The consistent signal is simpler as shown in the next chart. As standings points increase, playoff depth scores increase. Better teams tend to go further in the playoffs.

Final takeaway

So, does it matter if a team is streaky, or is the final point total all that matters?

The standings point total matters most.

How a team gets there matters less than the final point total. Streaks can help build momentum, but they ultimately show up in the standings. Make the playoffs, and the slate is mostly clean.

Streakiness only becomes an issue when losing streaks pile up. As long as the Kraken keep their balance ratio at or above 0.68, they are positioning themselves to qualify and avoid the most difficult first-round matchups.

Some bonus charts

As part of this research, I pulled additional streak data to provide more context. The charts below show how the Kraken have compared to league averages over the past four seasons in terms of their longest winning, point and losing streaks.

As the season continues, the focus should remain on the standings rather than the emotional swings that come with streaky play. If Seattle keeps earning points at its current rate, the path to the playoffs remains clear, regardless of how bumpy the ride feels along the way.