Welcome to “Down on the Farm,” your weekly Seattle Kraken prospects update. This week, we’re going to take a look at scoring comparables for a couple Kraken prospects in the AHL, Logan Morrison and Jagger Firkus. What expectations should we be putting on these players now?

After that, we’ll have updates on Kraken prospects at the Olympics and the AHL All-Star Classic, plus other news, video, data updates, the Sound Of Hockey Prospect of the Week, and a preview of the week ahead, as always.

If you have a Seattle Kraken prospect–related question you’d like to see featured in a future column (or answered in our next mailbag), drop us a note below or on X or BlueSky at @deepseahockey or @sound_hockey.

Setting fair expectations for Logan Morrison and Jagger Firkus

In the last week, I have seen a couple of questions regarding Logan Morrison’s season in the AHL and his NHL future. Morrison is not your typical, heralded NHL prospect. He is not the biggest, fastest, or flashiest player on the ice. The six-foot center signed with the Kraken as an undrafted free agent in 2023 and spent his first couple of seasons working his way up the AHL lineup with solid, but not head-turning, statistics.

This season, at age 23, he has broken through as a scoring engine for the Firebirds, piling up 23 goals and 23 assists in 45 games. Morrison’s 46 points lead the Firebirds and are third in the AHL at the All-Star break.

Is this scoring binge a harbinger of an NHL future? Should the Kraken be thinking Morrison may earn a spot on the 2026-27 team? Or is it more consistent with a good player likely to top out as an AHL or European league scorer?

At the same time, we’re seeing a professional-career-best scoring performance from Morrison’s teammate Jagger Firkus. As the No. 35 overall pick in the 2022 draft, Firkus has garnered a higher prospect profile. Even so, the 21-year-old winger still has questions about his own future due to his slight stature. Firkus has 17 goals and 27 assists in 45 games this season. His 44 points are second on the Firebirds and seventh in the AHL.

Is this production a step forward for Firkus’s stock? Or is it just an average (expected) outcome for a player who led the CHL in scoring two seasons ago? Perhaps it’s even a slight step back since he has not yet established himself in the NHL?

Though we can and should dig in on the player evaluation specifics for Morrison and Firkus to address these questions, I thought some numbers could help us establish an informed baseline for them moving forward—and for others who might be in a similar situation in the years ahead.

Methodology and data

I gathered every AHL player season from the 2010-11 season to present in which the player was 23 years old or younger and scored at least 0.95 points per game in 40+ AHL games. (The point-per-game threshold is admittedly arbitrary and an effort to expand the sample to include Firkus, who is one point shy of a point-per-game pace.)

This approach returned a sample of 67 players and 74 total qualifying seasons. Seven players had two such seasons. For these players, I utilized the younger of the two qualifying seasons as the standard for the analysis below.

Six of the 67 players are currently playing their qualifying seasons (including Morrison and Firkus). Setting those examples aside, we have a sample of 61 players to evaluate.

For each of the 61 players, I tabulated their career statistics through the present—i.e., the Olympic break of the 2025-26 NHL season.

I then set three (again, arbitrary) thresholds when analyzing the results:

1. NHL Contributor: 100+ NHL games played (or 35+ games per season since the AHL season)
2. NHL Regular: 500+ NHL games played (or 55+ games per season since the AHL season)
3. Star: NHL Regular and 0.8+ points per game

Findings and limitations

As you might expect, players who achieved the production threshold at a younger age were more likely to achieve NHL careers and production. For example, of the four players to achieve the .95 points per game at 19 years old, all four passed the 100 NHL game threshold. Two are currently “NHL Contributors” (though both are still active, with the potential for more), one is an NHL Regular, and one is a Star. This is a one hundred percent “success” rate.

At the other end of the spectrum, players like Morrison who first achieved .95 points per AHL game at age 23 were markedly less certain to find future NHL success. Of the 15 qualifying AHL player seasons, two come from this season—Quinn Hutson and Morrison. Of the 13 remaining seasons, only six have surpassed the 100-game threshold to be an NHL Contributor (46 percent). Four of those (31 percent of the total sample) became NHL Regulars—Carter Verhaeghe, Jonatan Berggren, Pat Maroon, and Victor Olofsson. None have reached “Star” status—though Verhaeghe is fairly close with .74 points per game in his NHL career.

Toward the middle of the spectrum is Firkus’s age-21 group. Of the 16 qualifying seasons, again, two are from this year—Connor Geekie and Firkus. Of the 14 remaining in the sample, 10 became NHL Contributors (71 percent), and six of those are NHL Regulars (43 percent). The NHL Regular group is comprised of Matias Maccelli, Mavrik Bourque, Matt Coronato, Troy Terry, Marco Rossi, and Jean-Gabriel Pageau. None qualify as a Star, though Terry is the closest at .70 points per game.

Drawing back, there are some clear takeaways: Achieve this level of production as a 19- or 20-year-old, and the player is a near sure-fire NHL player, a better-than-even-money shot to have a lengthy career, and has even an outside chance of stardom. Achieve this production for the first time at 22 or 23, and the player has only a slim chance of achieving a lengthy NHL career and is no more than an even-money bet to get 100+ games at the next level. The 21-year-olds are a bit of a tipping point where you find a likelihood of playing NHL games but a 50-50 chance of achieving more.

If these likelihoods seem low or disappointing, it’s worth emphasizing that the very best players are unlikely to be captured in our sample. Many projected NHL Regulars move past the AHL level without accruing 40 games in a season—or skip that level entirely. This speaks to a built-in scouting assessment of the players in our sample (which includes Firkus and Morrison).

I did explore whether there were any other takeaways to distinguish the players who “made it” in this sample versus those who did not (e.g., height, higher-scoring players within the sample), but no other notable trends emerged.

Finally, I should note an obvious limitation: All of this assumes Firkus and Morrison can sustain their strong (.95 points per game) scoring pace for the balance of this season.

Conclusions

Firkus and Morrison are scoring at a league-leading rate in the AHL, but this does not mean they are a certainty to stick at the NHL level.

In 2023, I utilized a similar method to evaluate Firkus’ peer group when the winger was a high-scoring junior player. Comparing those results with our study here, we see that Firkus’ probability of becoming an NHL Contributor has edged forward from an even-money proposition to a likelihood. This is the type of progress you like to see from a prospect. Similarly, in that 2023 study, only 25 percent of Firkus’ peers achieved 33 points per 82 NHL games, which I used as a stand-in for a third liner. In this sample, the probability is 50 percent (7 of 14). Again, this is a significant step forward.

As for Morrison, his profile has always been a long shot. Personally, I have had him well outside Seattle’s top-10 prospects in my most recent rankings. Though an upside outcome remains unlikely, it is worth noting that solid middle-six players like Olofsson and Verhaeghe did follow a similar trajectory. After digging in on these numbers, I suspect I’ll move Morrison up a bit in my end-of-season ranking. That said, whether he accrues any notable NHL time remains a coin-flip bet at this point.

Notes on three Kraken prospects

Oscar Fisker Mølgaard | F | Denmark (Olympics)

Oscar Fisker Mølgaard is representing his native Denmark in the 2026 Winter Olympics and has scored Denmark’s only goal of the tournament to date—a tap-in off a net drive. The goalie Mølgaard bested on that play? None other than Philipp Grubauer. Mølgaard is fourth among forwards on the team in time on ice, centering the team’s second line. The players to earn more time than him? Nikolaj Ehlers and a couple of players with notable ties to Seattle—Alexander True and Oliver Bjorkstrand.

Oscar Fisker Molgaard scores his first Olympic goal for Team Denmark against Germany in Milan! @DKIshockey

Way to go, Oscar!

🎥: @nbcolympics/International Olympic Committee (IOC)#MilanoCortina2026 #WinterOlympics! pic.twitter.com/MZkCzRmNFn

— Coachella Valley Firebirds (@Firebirds) February 12, 2026

Logan Morrison | F | Coachella Valley Firebirds (AHL)

Morrison had two goals and four assists and was a plus-four across two one-goal wins over Henderson this week. He is your Sound Of Hockey Prospect of the Week.

Jagger Firkus | F | Coachella Valley Firebirds (AHL)

Firkus potted a goal and added three helpers in those two Henderson games this week before packing up with teammate Tyson Jugnauth to head to the AHL All-Star Classic. Firkus’s strong week carried through to the All-Star festivities; he scored a goal in the game and won the shooting accuracy event with a perfect 4-for-4 mark.

IT'S CALLED THE FIRKUS CIRCUS FOR A REASON🎪@firebirds | #AHLAlLStar pic.twitter.com/79BhWfBaf7

— American Hockey League (@TheAHL) February 11, 2026

Kraken prospects data update

Jani Nyman continues to pile up goals at the AHL level, with two more in two games this week.

Julius Miettinen’s plus-43 plus-minus leads all CHL forwards.

Visa Vedenpää received his first Liiga start in four weeks, and he played well, stopping 28 of 30 shots against. Unfortunately, it was not enough as Karpat fell to Nyman’s old team, Ilves, 2-1.

Kim Saarinen continued his recent stretch of strong play, posting a .924 save percentage across two starts last week. Saarinen’s .916 save percentage is second in Liiga, behind only Eetu Randelin, who is five years older than Saarinen.

Sound Of Hockey Prospect of the Week tracker

3: Jagger Firkus, Kim Saarinen

2: Jake O’Brien, Julius Miettinen, Nathan Villeneuve, Semyon Vyazovoi

1: Barrett Hall, Ollie Josephson, Tyson Jugnauth, Nikke Kokko, Logan Morrison, Victor Ostman, Zaccharya Wisdom

Previewing the week ahead

This week’s Deep Sea Hockey Games of the Week (which are not included on the prospect schedule below) are Mølgaard’s Denmark games at the Olympics. Denmark takes on the United States at 12:10 p.m. PT on Saturday and then squares off against Latvia at 10:10 a.m. PT on Sunday. Depending on the results of those games, Denmark will return to play in the elimination round on Tuesday or Wednesday. All Olympics games are available to stream on Peacock.

Tracking 2026 NHL Draft prospects: Alberts Smits

Alberts Smits is perhaps the most pro-ready physical specimen among this year’s blueliners. He’s 6-foot-3 and mixes a sturdy, muscular game with creativity to break pucks out and quarterback a power play from the blue line. He brings a lot of high-level experience at 18 years old. He has logged 51 Liiga games over the last two seasons and participated in the World Juniors for Latvia over the holidays. Most impressively, he is playing against the best in the world for Latvia at the Olympics right now. He’s not a passenger, either; he has logged the third-most minutes among Latvia’s defenders. While the offense may never be high-end, he presents as a very strong bet to slot into the middle of a defensive lineup with shutdown upside.

Smits ranked No. 6 on the mid-season Big Board. Good Friend of the Pod Chris Peters has mentioned that scouts told him not to be surprised when Smits is the first defenseman drafted this year.

Recent prospect updates

February 6, 2026: Seattle Kraken prospects midseason mailbag

January 30, 2026: Kraken prospect trade value tiers

January 23, 2026: Alexis Bernier set to return, early 2026 NHL Draft thoughts

January 16, 2026: Jacob Melanson is speeding toward an NHL future despite the demotion

January 9, 2026: World Juniors reports, CHL trades

January 2, 2026: Mid-season Kraken prospect ranking

December 26, 2025: Watching Kraken prospects at the 2026 World Junior Championship

December 20, 2025: Resetting Seattle Kraken draft capital after the Mason Marchment trade

December 13, 2025: Ryan Jankowski talks Kraken prospects

December 5, 2025: World Juniors Announcements, Kokko saving the day for the Firebirds