The Seattle Kraken arrive at the Olympic break in a welcome position, sitting third in the Pacific Division and very much in the playoff picture. The roster is essentially healthy, with Ben Meyers and Berkly Catton expected to come off injured reserve and give this team the full depth chart it envisioned back in October.
But with the trade deadline looming, four key players are pending unrestricted free agents, and general manager Jason Botterill will soon have to decide whether to extend them, trade them, or keep them for the stretch run with no guarantee any will re-sign. With the final playoff push about to take hold, we asked our writers to take stock of where the Kraken stand and where they might be headed next.
What do you think is the single biggest reason the Kraken are in a playoff spot right now?
John: It’s hard to pinpoint one specific thing the team is doing right because it’s been different things at different parts of the season. But if I have to pick one, it’s the defensive structure. The structure Lane Lambert has brought to this team was critical in accumulating points early in the season and built the foundation for everything that’s followed. The Kraken were 24th in the league last season in goals against per game, and they’re currently sitting ninth, allowing 2.88 goals per game.
Curtis: I agree with goal suppression being the biggest single reason, John, but will take it in a slightly different direction and highlight the goaltending. According to Evolving Hockey, the Kraken saved 7.6 goals above expected last season, which equates to about .1 goals per game. This year the total is 45.8 goals above expected in 56 games, equating to about .8 goals per game. Other sources are directionally similar. The Kraken are in the fight most nights because their goalies are usually saving a tally against more than they “should” and did last year.
Blaiz: The biggest reason the Kraken are in a playoff spot right now is their performance in the second leg of back-to-back games. Seattle is 4-3-2 in those games this season. Before their win Dec. 23, you’d have to go back to Feb. 13, 2024, for their previous back-to-back victory. Last season, they went 0-12-0 in the second leg and earned zero points.
Those nine games have produced 10 points. Without them, the Kraken would sit at 53 points and be seven points out of a playoff spot. Joey Daccord has been a major part of that turnaround, earning all 10 points while starting seven of the nine “second-leg” games. Matt Murray made the other two starts, and Philipp Grubauer has not started in the second of a back-to-back.
Darren: I got to read what all of you wrote for this one before making my own decision, and I think you’re all winners. All these pieces have certainly been big contributors to the team’s success.
If I can just add two quick pieces, Grubauer’s turnaround this season has been something I did not see coming and has made it so that the team has a chance to win regardless of who is in net, who they’re playing, and what the wacky schedule has brought. Also, there seems to be a real buy-in from the team on what Lambert is selling. He often says that if they play to their systems, they’ll have a chance every night, and it does seem the players believe that.
What’s the biggest surprise of the season — good or bad?
Curtis: I’ll build off my previous answer and also highlight the play of Grubauer in particular. Joey Daccord has been a relatively consistent positive across the last two seasons (.36 goals above expected per game last season according to Evolving Hockey; .50 goals above expected per game this year). But it is Grubauer who flipped from a large net negative in 2024-25 (-.49 goals above expected per game) to a dominant positive in 2025-26 (1.07 goals above expected per game).
Similarly, Hockeyviz had Grubauer at -.73 goals above expected per game in 2024-25 and has him .5 goals save above expected per game this season. His raw save percentage numbers jumped up from his career-low .875 rate to a .916 mark–which more closely resembles the numbers he was posting before joining the Kraken.
Grubauer’s rebound from contract liability (he cleared waivers last season and went to the Coachella Valley Firebirds) to arguably the team MVP so far is my biggest surprise.
Darren: Bingo, Curtis.
Blaiz: I agree with Curtis’ answer on Grubauer, so I will go with the biggest surprise on the bad side: letting Morgan Geekie walk almost three seasons ago has come back to bite Seattle in a huge way.
Since then, Geekie has scored 82 goals for Boston. Of course, he is skating on a top line with Elias Lindholm and David Pastrnak, two elite offensive talents, but even so, Geekie continues to produce. He has 32 goals this season and leads the entire NHL in goals per 60 (G/60) at 1.967. For context, Jared McCann is the closest Kraken skater over that same span with 67 goals and a 1.225 G/60 rate. The Kraken will continue to search for scoring, but they had Geekie in the system and let him go for nothing.
John: I think Grubauer surprised us all, but I’ll take a different path on this one. I don’t know if I was overly optimistic about the acquisition, but I was surprised by how bad the Mason Marchment fit was with the Kraken. I expected a goal-scoring Yanni Gourde type, but it just flat-out didn’t work. It wasn’t really consequential, but it was still shocking to see. Credit to the Kraken for cutting bait and shipping him off to Columbus.
Darren: How about the rise of some of the youngsters in the Kraken system? I guess we shouldn’t be that surprised, but seeing homegrown talent begin to make up a significant portion of the NHL roster is encouraging. Joining the likes of roster mainstays Matty Beniers, Shane Wright, and Ryker Evans have been a few new faces emerging as “regulars.” Ryan Winterton has played a huge role and just signed a new two-year contract, Jacob Melanson has fit in beautifully on the fourth line and helped turn the team around when it was struggling, and Berkly Catton has proven himself NHL ready as a true rookie who we thought could be returned to the WHL this season.
That’s exciting stuff for a team that is very much in the playoff hunt now.
Who is your Kraken MVP at the break, and why?
Blaiz: Captain Jordan Eberle is my MVP at the break. Eberle is the only Kraken player to reach 20 goals so far this season. He leads the team in both goals (20) and points (38), all after returning from a pelvis injury that ended his 2024-25 season. At 35 years of age, he is on pace for 30 goals, a mark he has never reached in his career. His previous career high was 28 goals in his rookie season. With him set to become an unrestricted free agent after this season, if he chose to chase a Cup elsewhere, I would understand. But his leadership and production still make a strong case to bring the captain back for another season or two.
John: I’m going to go with Matty Beniers here. He’s been playing such a strong two-way game all season, which has really contributed to the team’s success defensively, and in January he really started to chip in offensively.
Darren: I’m with you, John. I still want Beniers to contribute more offensively–he’s on pace for about 20 goals again this season–but at 23 years old, he looks like a proper NHL veteran.
Curtis: I tipped my hand on my team MVP in my previous answer. It’s Grubauer for me.
Which area of the roster still concerns you the most heading into the stretch run?
Darren: The biggest problem with the roster is the same issue that has dragged it down since Day 1: a lack of elite offensive talent. Catton could become this one day, but as of now, there’s still no gamebreaker in Seattle. It would be great to see the Kraken add another player who can score at Jared McCann levels of frequency now, then let some of the youngsters mature into (hopefully) star players in a couple years.
John: The penalty kill. It started the season unlucky, then turned flat-out awful, only to eventually rebound a bit before slipping again right before the Olympic break. I feel like having an average penalty kill over the remaining games would do wonders in helping Seattle lock in that playoff position.
Curtis: I agree with Darren to some degree; it’s the goal scoring, particularly at even strength. For much of the season, the team has not created enough shot quality to sustain success, only to be buoyed by puck luck, power-play goals, and strong goaltending. If this playoff run dies out over the last 26 games, it will likely be because the offense can’t get them over the line.
Blaiz: The three-headed goalie situation does not necessarily concern me, but it is the area I think about most because it takes up a roster spot.
Matt Murray has been practicing with the team for a while but has not been activated off injured reserve. When he is activated, someone will need to be sent down to Coachella Valley to make room. That creates a short-term squeeze, and with five games before the March 6 trade deadline, the Kraken need every point they can get. After the deadline, the roster limit is lifted, which will remove this concern.
If you were Jason Botterill, how would you approach the trade deadline?
John: This team isn’t a serious Cup contender, but they absolutely want to make the playoffs, so their approach to the trade deadline is going to be tricky. I’d be listening to offers that make the Kraken better over the next few years, not necessarily just better this season. There’s a scenario where I’d trade one of the middle-six forwards on an expiring contract and backfill that spot with Jacob Melanson and/or Logan Morrison.
Curtis: I’d endeavor to use the deadline as leverage to extend a couple veteran forwards, preferably Jaden Schwartz and Jordan Eberle on two-year deals. I’d keep the phone lines open on big game (Robert Thomas? Jordan Kyrou? Jason Robertson? Filip Forsberg?) in case a team gets motivated to deal. I’d move any unsigned, pending UFA forwards (Schwartz, Eberle, or Eeli Tolvanen) or defenseman Jamie Oleksiak if a first-round pick (or comparable value) is offered. I suspect this approach would generate an Oleksiak deal, but nothing else. I’d live with the downgrade defensively for the stretch run.
Blaiz: The Kraken should take a swing at a scoring forward if a true point-per-game caliber player becomes available, like the players Curtis mentioned. Jason Botterill should listen to every offer. But he should avoid rentals that only help this season. If a near point-per-game player is available and can either be extended or is already under contract for two or three more years, that is the type of move I would make. It all comes down to the price. The deal Los Angeles just got for Artemi Panarin is the type I would make in a heartbeat.
Darren: I think you’re all very smart. The only thing I’m not particularly keen on from the above answers is Curtis’s willingness to move a player for a first-round pick. I’d like to take a break from trading useful players for draft capital for a while. I would keep the veteran UFA’s for a playoff push, even if it means letting them walk this summer.
Now talking out of the other side of my mouth, Oleksiak for a first isn’t a terrible deal, though.
Wait, no, I’m keeping Oleksiak for the playoff run. There. That’s my answer. No trades for draft picks.
What’s one bold prediction for the Kraken in the final third of the season?
Curtis: The scoring will start to come for Berkly Catton. I’ll say seven goals and 11 assists for him in the team’s last 26 games despite relatively modest ice time and no significant power-play usage.
Blaiz: Shane Wright will break the 20-goal mark. He started the season slow, but in the final week before the break he scored four goals to push his total to 11. He needs nine more over the final 26 games. If he stays confident and continues to get opportunities, I would not be surprised to see him reach that milestone.
Darren: The Kraken will finally swing a relatively big trade for a scoring winger. I think the reporting out there that they were aggressively pursuing Panarin tells us this is the kind of player they’re seeking and are willing to pay to make it happen.
John: You want bold? How about the Kraken finishing second in the Pacific. They’re playing their best hockey of the season, and they’re finally healthy. Change my mind.
Is this a playoff team?
Blaiz: 100% Yes. Will they be a Stanley Cup favorite? No. But I do not think teams will enjoy matching up with them in the first round. The Kraken are comfortable playing tight, low-scoring games. As I mentioned in the March update of Strive for 95, they have played their best hockey against the top of the league, posting a .611 points percentage. I believe they have what it takes to return to the postseason, and I will go a step further and say they will put any first-round opponent on upset alert.
John: Yes. I think their biggest threat to taking their playoff spot is the Los Angeles Kings and even though they traded for Artemi Panarin right before the Olympic break, they lost Kevin Fiala due to a broken leg sustained in the Olympics.
Curtis: I don’t love the chances of several of Seattle’s competitors, as you point out, but in isolation this still doesn’t feel like a playoff-caliber team to me. There’s enough of the season left for water to find its level, so I’ll say “no,” but it’s very close. Matty Beniers’ continued ability to drive an effective scoring line may be the x-factor. They were hot before the break. Will they come back the same way? Regardless, it should be an intriguing stretch run. And that is what we wanted coming into the season.
Darren: I was supposed to answer this one before Curtis, but I can’t let us end this Roundtable with a “no playoffs” response. I’ve covered this team closely since its inception, and I can tell you the vibes in the dressing room feel a lot more like the playoff vibes we felt in 2022-23 than the “we’re out of it” vibes of the other seasons. The team believes they’re a playoff team, and I believe they’re a playoff team.
Curtis: Agree. Better ending.
Go Kraken!!!
Biggest question. Will The Kraken seamlessly pick up where they left off before the break? That will make all the difference. Pre-break, we were able one of the top teams in the league.
I’m glad someone finally mentioned the performance of the young players. They have been exemplary. I know this confuses fans who only measure performance by individual points, but they have been great.
Shane was looking like a 1st overall pick in the last 5-6 games. How many NHL players score 2 goals in a game in their career, and Shane did it twice down the pre-break stretch and it really mattered. And then there’s Matty with his 10 goals in a month or whatever, WHILE playing his distinctive brand of 2-way hockey.
Let’s go!!!
Oh Curtis… always the downer. Don’t change bud.
Co-sign all of Curtis’s answers.
So, to be clear, the (realistic) preference is to go into the offseason with 12 current forwards signed for next year (no Tolvanen or Melanson) and 9 for the year after that (no McCann, Wright, or Kartye)? For a team that is maybe a fringey playoff team (and definitely not a serious contender)? That’s the result of re-signing Schwartz and Eberle to 2-year extensions.
Yeah good point. I’m rethinking my co-sign on that particular answer from Curtis. Right now, this team is only maybe a fringey playoff team and only when the division is particularly terrible. Re-signing older, injury-prone forwards, leaving little room for anyone new or younger, would not seem to make them better.
There is this idea, especially in hockey, that a team MUST either re-sign, or trade the pending UFA away or risk them walking away “for nothing.” But if you want these players exactly for this year, but probably not after, then it’s not “for nothing” — you are keeping them at a reasonable price for the exact amount of time you want, and they play for you during that one year. The hope is we get a little playoff run out of it — that’s not “nothing” at all, even if we are almost certain not to win the cup. A playoff run is worth foregoing a couple draft picks. That doesn’t mean we need to clog up the roster and lineup with older players for the next two years.
And that does seem to be the result from this “false choice” thinking of “trade or re-sign.” More often, it results in bad extensions than premature trades. And in a couple years, we will truly lose them for nothing because we will be desperately trying to get out from under their cap hits and no one will trade any value for them.
This is fair in the sense that maybe I should have said re-sign Eberle and/or Schwartz. One is OK. You could make the argument bringing back one is better. Certainly.
That said, just my opinion, but I guess I disagree with the roster math that there would be a detrimental roster crunch if two of the forward veteran UFAs are brought back. There’s room to have Schwartz, Eberle, Catton, and Nyman on the wing in top-nine roles next year. And the team could still pursue the big fish in a trade because a top-nine piece would likely move out in that deal anyway (or a related deal). Is there a hypothetical chance that Catton AND Nyman AND Firkus are all clearly ready to play at the end of the preseason AND everyone else is healthy? Sure, on the bell curve, it’s possible. But, even in that scenario, these aren’t roadblock contracts we’re talking about. There are a number of contracts at the bottom of the roster now, but many can be buried and/or would not result in lost sleep in the unlikely event of a waiver claim.
As for the cap, there wouldn’t be any issue with bringing back Schwartz and Eberle at or below their current AAVs. There’d be plenty of room even then to go for something big this offseason.
As for the team on the ice, I tend to think that Schwartz and Eberle are likely to provide more than any other player the Kraken could realistically plug in. This is fringy playoff team with them and they’re both, what, top-10 players on the team? Without them, this year (and next) the team would be substantially less than a fringe playoff team. So I guess I disagree with the thought that the ideal usage of these players is to have them for a playoff run this year and then let them leave. They’re still substantial net positives. And getting Schwartz and Eberle short term leaves the runway clearer for a hypothetical O’Brien / Molgaard / Miettinen / Villeneuve wave a year or two out. Signing Tolvanen (or another UFA) for four-ish years is less ideal for me.
I do agree that investing in aging, injury-prone veterans is not a great plan. At the moment, it seems like the best plan to me, but it’s not a perfect/ideal one by any stretch. You’d have to be firm; if the players want more term (Schwartz might) or AAV, it’s a no. Anyway, just my two cents.
I am also surprised to see Schwartz over Tolvenan as a signing candidate. Tolvy is 26 and has proven to be durable (knock on wood) but Schwartz is 33 and injury prone. Granted Schwartz produces more points when healthy because he is better in front of the net, but Tolvy seems like someone we can consistently pencil in for 16-22 goals per season because of his shot. His stats and age are actually pretty similar to Kakko. That is solid for a 3rd line guy like we ultimately want him to be if we can find/develop a few top 6 wingers.
I am curious about management’s true view on some of our prospects that are killing it in the AHL. If I were the agent for a few of these guys I would tell them to take a page out of Tyson Jugnauth’s playbook and move to Seattle this summer to show dedication and get extra support. Nyman should spend all off-season with Jessica Campbell to work on his skating and improving his two-way game. Firkus should spend a healthy offseason living in the gym and drinking protein shakes non-stop to pack on 10 pounds.
I think the timing of extending Meyers and Winterton is kind of odd, just given that it doesn’t seem like there is any urgency to sign either now and roster currently crowded with forwards.
Optimistically, I could see it as a vote of confidence/ confirmation that the team values them, but the cynic in me wonders if it was done to create a couple of trade chips that fall into the “young(ish) player on an inexpensive contract with term” situation in preparation for building a trade package involving one or both of them.