A Seattle Kraken view on the Leo Carlsson offer sheet

On July 3, the Philadelphia Flyers tendered a massive five-year, $90 million offer sheet to Anaheim Ducks center Leo Carlsson. The deal carries an $18 million average annual value (AAV) and would cost Philadelphia four first-round picks if Anaheim does not match. The Ducks have until July 10 to decide whether to match.

The more I think about that $18 million number, the more I think Philadelphia picked the right amount, because in a way, there might not be a clear winner here. Whichever team ends up with Carlsson gets a 21-year-old potential franchise center. But that team also gets a major cap challenge.

That could create opportunities for the Seattle Kraken.

Seattle is not directly involved in the offer sheet, but it has something one of the teams could need in the near future: flexibility. The Kraken have about $18.4 million in projected cap space, according to PuckPedia, and they have a full 23-player roster.

From a league perspective, this also shifts the restricted free-agent market upward. Obviously, not every RFA is suddenly going to $18 million, or even get close to touching double digits. But more teams may need to pay a premium to keep their best young players away from the offer sheet market.

The salary cap is $104 million this season and is projected to rise to $113.5 million next season and continue increasing in the years ahead. Player salaries are going to keep climbing with it.

That makes the recently inked Mackie Samoskevich contract, which looked good for the Kraken before, look even better now. Seattle signed Samoskevich for three years at $3.85 million AAV. The Kraken front office deserves credit for getting that deal done on July 1 before the Leo Carlsson offer sheet chaos began.

If Anaheim match and keep Carlsson

The most likely outcome still feels like Anaheim matching. Young franchise centers are extremely difficult to acquire, so even at an uncomfortable price, Anaheim general manager Pat Verbeek likely has to match.

Since Carlsson signed the offer sheet, the Ducks also overpaid Pavel Mintyukov on a five-year contract at $7.2 million AAV, a deal made to avoid letting him also get offer sheeted. They also signed 23-year-old defenseman Tyson Hinds to a two-year deal at $900,000 annually. That leaves the Ducks with about $10.2 million in projected cap space and 22 players on their active roster.

The final major piece of business is Cutter Gauthier.

After a 41-goal, 69-point season, Gauthier has plenty of leverage. He is not offer-sheet eligible yet and does not have arbitration rights, but he remains unsigned.

Cutter Gauthier

You might wonder why Gauthier has not received an offer sheet.

The short answer: He cannot.

Gauthier is not yet classified as a Group 2 RFA. To become offer-sheet eligible, a player must meet certain professional experience requirements. For players who sign their entry-level contract at 18 or 19, that means three years of professional experience. A player who is 18 or 19 earns one professional year by playing at least 10 NHL games in a season.

Gauthier has only two years of professional experience under his belt. That gives Anaheim some protection this summer, but it does not remove the pressure. If Gauthier lands in the $13 million to $15 million range, the Ducks would be roughly $3 million to $5 million over the cap, based on their current projection.

The good news for Anaheim is that teams can exceed the cap by 10 percent during the offseason. The Ducks can sign Gauthier first and figure out the rest later, but they must be cap compliant before Opening Night.

The Ducks have players they would likely prefer to move, but several come with modified no-trade clauses and other challenges. Chris Kreider, Alex Killorn, Mikael Granlund, and Frank Vatrano all make between $4.57 million and $7 million annually, and they are all 32 or older.

That does not make them impossible to trade, but it does mean Anaheim could have a difficult time finding takers without getting creative.

Possible Anaheim trade angles

So, how does this affect the Kraken?

If the Ducks match Carlsson and still need to sign Gauthier, Seattle should at least call. Anaheim would need cap relief and may also want defensive help.

Is there a world where the Kraken could offer to take one of those veterans and send back a reasonably priced defenseman and get Anaheim to attach one of their young players? It’s a massive long shot, but what would it take to pry Beckett Sennecke out of Orange County? Hard cap decisions can make teams consider uncomfortable options. Remember, Anaheim already made the difficult choice to trade young defenseman Olen Zellweger to Buffalo to avoid having to sign him to a new contract, and now they’re looking at an even bigger conundrum.

Again, this feels unlikely, but Sennecke would be a huge boost to the Kraken, both now and in the future. He is a 20-year-old right wing coming off a 60-point rookie season, and he fits Seattle’s timeline.

Meanwhile, there’s the currently injured Troy Terry, who is a different type of target. He has been a steady 50- to 60-point player and has four years left at $7 million annually. He also has a 10-team modified no-trade clause and recently had hip surgery, so he will be out until at least November. All those factors complicate things.

Terry would bring skill and production (eventually), but the fit is also not perfect. He is not the most reliable player defensively, which could make it harder for him to fit Lane Lambert’s system.

If Philadelphia lands Carlsson

Philadelphia’s side is more straightforward but still interesting.

The Flyers have about $29.6 million in projected cap space before adding Carlsson. His $18 million cap hit would drop them to about $11.6 million. That sounds manageable, but Trevor Zegras and Jamie Drysdale still need contracts.

If Drysdale lands around $6 million and Zegras pushes toward $7 million, Philadelphia would come up short. That overage would be easier to manage than Anaheim’s potential problem, but it would still require a move.

The Flyers could start the season with 21 players to help become cap compliant. That is not a long-term solution, but it would reduce the urgency to dump salary.

Arbitration wrinkle

Zegras and Drysdale both filed for salary arbitration. That makes them ineligible for offer sheets, but it does not guarantee team-friendly deals.

If an arbitrator awards more than $4,950,080 in a player-elected case, the team can walk away and make the player an unrestricted free agent immediately. That seems unlikely with either player, given their age and upside, though.

More likely, Philadelphia uses the summer 10 percent cushion while it works to become cap compliant. That is where the Kraken could help, but only for the right price.

Possible Philadelphia trade angles

The Flyers players I would call about are Owen Tippett, Matvei Michkov, Jamie Drysdale, and David Jiricek.

Tippett is under contract for six more years at $6.2 million annually. He plays with speed, gets the puck on net and led the Flyers with 28 goals. That is the type of player who should fit Lambert’s system. One might wonder why the Flyers could be willing to move Tippett, but there has speculation out there that Philadelphia is at least listening to calls on him for the right deal.

Michkov, Drysdale, and Jiricek are different cases.

Michkov and Jiricek are young players who are inexpensive now, being that they are on entry-level contracts. They do not help Philadelphia clear much cap space by themselves, so to create savings, one of them would need to be attached to a larger contract.

Drysdale could be a more realistic target because he needs a new deal. But if Philadelphia still values him as a long-term piece, it may prefer to move money elsewhere.

The veteran contract I would target is Rasmus Ristolainen, only if packaged with a young player.

Ristolainen is a 6-foot-5, right-shot defenseman with one year left at $5.1 million. He could slide into Seattle’s top four and would not create long-term cap risk. He also would give the Kraken another Finnish player before the Global Series in November.

The key is the sweetener. Taking Ristolainen by itself should not be the goal. Taking Ristolainen as part of a deal that lands Seattle a promising young player or a legitimate in-his-prime contributor is where it gets interesting.

Philadelphia would also be sending its next four first-round picks to Anaheim if the Ducks do not match the Carlsson offer sheet, which could make the Flyers more interested in draft capital. The Kraken have two first-round picks in 2027, including the pick acquired from Tampa Bay.

That could create a path to a larger deal. Wright could be part of that type of trade, but the return would need to be significant.

The team that misses out

The team that does not end up with Carlsson may still need a center.

That brings the Kraken into the conversation again.

As stated, I personally want Seattle to keep Wright, even though his agent has asked for him to be traded. I still think he is going to blossom, and I do not want the Kraken to give up on him before that happens. Let’s chalk last season up as a sophomore slump and look for him to take a step forward this year.

That said, if a team is looking for young centers, it should call upon the Kraken’s young center emporium. Seattle has Matty Beniers, Berkly Catton, and Shane Wright in the organization, with Jake O’Brien on the horizon.

That does not mean the Kraken should trade any of them. It means general manager Jason Botterill should listen if another team gets desperate.

Talented young centers are at a premium. The Carlsson offer sheet proves that. If another team wants to pay that premium, Seattle should at least answer the phone.

Should the Kraken use an offer sheet?

The Carlsson offer sheet also raises a natural question: Should the Kraken make one of their own?

In most cases, probably not.

The Kraken have the cap space and draft capital to explore the RFA market. But many eligible RFAs have already filed for arbitration, which prevents them from signing offer sheets. The biggest remaining names are players like Connor Bedard and Adam Fantilli.

That sounds fun in theory. In practice, it is hard to see. Offer sheet compensation is based on the average annual value. In Carlsson’s case, the $18 million cap hit is well above the top compensation tier, and if Anaheim does not match, the Ducks receive four Philadelphia first-round picks. A Bedard or Fantilli offer sheet would also hit that top tier.

Philadelphia has shown why an offer sheet can be tempting and has also set the market for how much a team needs to be willing to pay to persuade a young player to sign one. Instead of hoping to win the draft lottery and land a franchise player, the Flyers tried to acquire one directly.

For Seattle, the answer should be no for now. But as the cap keeps rising, this strategy could make more sense in the future. It is hard for a non-playoff team to use this path because its draft picks are too valuable.

For a team in a wild-card spot or sitting third in its division, though, an offer sheet could become a way to improve now instead of waiting on the draft-and-develop path.

Who do you think the Kraken should target in a trade? And is an offer sheet something you want to see Seattle use in the future?