There’s no sugarcoating it—the Seattle Kraken are struggling right now. After scoring eight goals against the Montreal Canadiens last Tuesday, the Kraken have managed just one goal in their last three games, all losses to the Toronto Maple Leafs, Ottawa Senators, and Boston Bruins. Before this stretch, the Kraken had never scored fewer than two goals over any three-game span in franchise history. For the first time ever, they’ve been shut out in back-to-back games.
Playing from behind
The Kraken have allowed the first goal in each of their last three games, a pattern that’s troubled them all season. So far, they’ve given up the first goal in a league-leading nine games and managed to win only three of those—a concerning stat that underscores a consistent struggle to gain momentum. Playing from behind puts teams at an immediate disadvantage, and in the Kraken’s case, it’s led to them trailing for 49 percent of their total game time, ranking third worst in the league in this category, just ahead of Nashville and St. Louis.
This uphill battle impacts both offensive and defensive dynamics, with players forced to take more risks in order to equalize the score. Such a style is not only physically draining, but it also creates vulnerabilities that opponents can exploit. The Kraken’s inability to score first means they’re playing with added pressure early in the game, which affects everything from line changes to defensive schemes. When a team chases the game, it can disrupt their typical rhythm and put a strain on key players, leading to higher ice time for the top lines and greater fatigue by the final period.
The third period in particular presents a steep challenge. NHL teams with a lead tend to enter “lockdown mode,” shifting to a defense-first mentality that emphasizes structure, discipline, and careful puck management. These teams actively push opponents to the outside, preventing high-quality scoring chances from dangerous areas in front of the net. For the trailing team, cracking this defense can be incredibly tough, requiring clean entries, strong puck possession, and often, an extra effort to get to the net and create traffic in front of the goalie. But with the pressure mounting, shots often become less selective and are taken from the perimeter, which rarely beats a well-structured defense.
Struggling to get inside
The Kraken continue to struggle with generating high-danger scoring chances, a challenge that also plagued them last season. Despite offseason personnel improvements, they’re finding it difficult to penetrate defenses and create the kinds of opportunities that lead to quality shots on goal.
This inability to consistently get inside to the net-front area forces them to settle for perimeter shots, which are far easier for opposing goaltenders to save. Finding ways to improve puck movement, quick passes, and player positioning near the net could be key in transforming these struggles and helping the Kraken turn their offensive potential into goals. Alison Lukan wrote a great article that sheds some light on what it takes to create net-front offense. You can check it out here.
Other Musings
- The Kraken have the same number of points at this stage in the season as they did last season.
- As bad as these last three games have felt, I don’t for one second question the team’s work ethic. The Kraken continued to work and fight to claw back into the games. Though the team is slumping, it continues to feel very different than last season, and I believe Seattle will turn it around.
- While the loss to Boston could be chalked up to a “schedule loss” on back-to-back games, the Kraken should also capitalize when playing a team in the second game of a back-to-back. Saturday night’s game was the Senators’ second in as many days.
- John Forslund had an excellent line during one of the Ontario games, saying something to the effect of, “Eventually, ‘early in the season’ becomes ‘the season.’” We’re getting close to that point, and I typically use the 20-game mark as a benchmark.
- The Kraken had just three shots on goal in the first period on Sunday against the Bruins—their lowest shot total in any regulation period this season.
- Shane Wright is averaging less than 12 minutes of ice time over the last four games. I’m not sure what’s behind his low ice time, but I was hoping for more from him. In Coachella Valley last season, he had a knack for getting into scoring areas. I’m still optimistic about Shane, but the team could use more production from him right now.
- Yanni Gourde is due for a goal. He’s been generating more shot attempts lately, and many of those chances are coming from prime areas. He’s exactly the type of player who could help pull this team out of its slump. He had a golden opportunity with a 2-on-1 at the end of the second period against the Bruins, but was stopped by Jeremy Swayman.
- Congratulations to Ty Nelson and David Goyette for scoring their first professional goals over the weekend with the Coachella Valley Firebirds.
- Here’s your weekly reminder to check out a WHL game if you haven’t already. This past weekend saw some exciting games: on Friday, the Edmonton Oil Kings defeated the Seattle Thunderbirds 5-4 in a shootout, and the Tri-City Americans outlasted the Everett Silvertips in a 6-5 thriller in Kennewick.
- Last week, the Professional Women’s Hockey League (PWHL) announced plans to open the door for expansion as early as next season. This is excellent news for hockey overall, but it may be a while before we see the potential for a team here in Seattle. The league will likely want to expand gradually, clustering teams regionally. Seattle’s chances will increase once Calgary secures a team.
- As for a PWHL team in Seattle, there’s still the question of where they would play. Arenas in Everett or Kent would be a good size for a women’s team, but I believe it’s important for the team to play in Seattle or Bellevue. It’s a long shot, but I’d love to see a 5,000- to 10,000-seat arena built that could also host future University of Washington Division I hockey programs and a PWHL team.
Player performances
Ryan Winterton (CVF/SEA) – The Kraken prospect notched two goals and two assists in the Coachella Valley Firebirds’ 5-2 victory over the Bakersfield Condors on Saturday.
Carson Rehkopf (MIS/SEA) – The Kraken’s 2023 second-round draft pick recorded seven points across three games for the Mississauga Steelheads in the OHL, including a four-assist night on Friday against the North Bay Battalion. Rehkopf now has 28 points in 14 games.
Clarke Caswell (SC/SEA) – Caswell had an impressive weekend, tallying seven points in two games for the Swift Current Broncos. On Friday night, he contributed two goals and three assists in their 9-4 win over the Prince Albert Raiders.
Goal of the week
There’s talk about changing 3-on-3 overtime, but doing so could eliminate exciting sequences like this one:
Jared Spurgeon's terrific hustle sets up Matt Boldy for the OVERTIME WINNER!#mnwild pic.twitter.com/weWPuTzx6m
— Hockey Daily 365 l NHL Highlights & News (@HockeyDaily365) November 4, 2024
The week ahead
The Kraken have only two games over the next eight days, and they’ll need to salvage at least a point in Colorado to prevent this road trip from being a complete disaster. The Avalanche, who have lost three straight games heading into Tuesday’s matchup, have allowed five goals in each of those losses. Colorado has already beaten the Kraken once this season, so it won’t be an easy game, but the Avs are also decimated by injuries, so it’s a good time to catch them.
The other game this week is Friday at home against the Vegas Golden Knights, who currently have the best record in the Pacific Division and rank second in the league in goals per game at 4.92. Adding to the challenge, the Kraken have yet to beat the Golden Knights at Climate Pledge Arena in their history. It’s a tall order for the Kraken in their current form, but stranger things have happened—and I hear they’ll still play the game. 😊
How are we feeling? Anyone else starting to panic?
“Saturday night’s game was the Leafs’ second in as many days” — I think you mean Ottawa?
Yeah. Also, Boston was also on the 2nd night of a back-to-back — and also consistently outskated the Kraken.
John, face it, the Kraken are bad. This is a “strongest link” league and the kraken have no elite forwards. They have no depth anymore because their early acquisitions via expansion and UFA signings have gotten old and slow. The young players are ok but not great. Our main reason for improvement was Shane Wright and he’s been invisible.The roster is capped out with mediocrity and the front office has no plan.
But hey — we have a team, right? They play live, sort-of-NHL level hockey in Seattle, albeit the most boring version possible. That’s about all there is to be thankful for at this stage.
There is no urgency, no physicality and if they put a net on the boards, the Kraken would score a ton of goals. Too many fringe players. Release Burkovsky already, please. Just because players can skate fast does not mean lots of offense and you can’t score goals if you don’t shoot and put players in front of the net. This is the same speech I gave my players when I coached. But changing lines around is on Blysma . It is a team of chaos at the moment.
Let us call a spade a spade. This roster is all on Ron Francis, including the draft picks he supposedly was so good at identifying. None of the draft picks down in CV seem to be making much of a difference.
The Kraken defense is good enough and the goalies are mostly not the main issue this year. It is the lack of offense. As we know, as go Dunn injuries, so go the Kraken, so there is that. However, far too many of the forwards are just collecting a paycheck, and mouthing slogans like “we have to be better.” Well, if you already know that, why are you being better now?
I was all for giving Catton the 9 games this season, as he is the most dynamic F in the organization. I could care less if his has not learned how to play defense yet. We have enough Fs whose main skill is defense, we need offensive dynamism. Every top team has this.
I have said this several times but whoever in the hierarchy of the Kraken Francis reports to needs to become visible and start taking some accountability. In the joke of an Athletic article today with Pierre LeBrun, Francis was again showed why the smart guys in Vegas know how to succeed in aggressively staffing a roster and he comes across like he is playing golf at a country club. I don’t see a GM who insists on being in on every possible trade like Vegas is. No Mark Stone or Jack Eichel deals coming from Francis.
Someone needs to kick some of these players into playing properly and that is not Bylsma or country club Ron. More than 5 years in the role and this is all he can predictably produce. It is not enough. The Kraken owners need to intervene and soon or the mediocrity will never depart.
Yes, the roster is on Ron Francis and there are some valid complaints, though not being able to do all the trades Vegas did is not one of them. Was a very different environment during Vegas expansion that other GMs were NOT going to allow again. This point has been analyzed ad nausium; can we finally put this to bed. Not matter who the GM, its difficult to build a periennial playoff team or stanely cup contender when starting from scratch (again Vegas is an exception that will NEVER happen again); especially when starting out with NO elite players. Those elite players will hopefully be Beniers and Wright in a few years but they may never end up reaching those levels. Most every GM would have drafted those players where Kraken took them. If they don’t pan out that will ultimately result in Francis being replaced if not for other reasons, which ironically no GM can predict future performance of a draft pick. You could argue Francis has made some bad signings which is fair, but most of his signings at the time made sense. Like any GM you live and die by the drafts and roster changes whether fair or not.
Watched Catton during preseason/training camp and although a dynamic player, he is NOT ready yet and sending him down was right decision especially since he is slightly on the smaller side.
My biggest complaint on Francis is a general one; why is this team maxed against the cap with a mediocre roster which limits roster flexibility and also the ability to go after a star player thru free agency or trade if the rare opportunity occurs that an elite player becomes available. Unless your a stanely cup contender GM should maximize cap space.
The Kraken into year 4 are what they are; a deep roster with many good players but not game breaking/difference makers. If some of the younger players do not develop into stars, team may have a decade or more of mediocrity with a season here or there of overachieving (like 2 years ago). I hope players continue to develop but for the time being happy to be able to cheer for an NHL team in Seattle.
I agree with your take Norm; however, I believe your “general” complaint with Francis can be summed up in three words… weaponize cap space. Everyone who hates the contracts (Grubauer, Burakovski, Stephenson) would be blasting him right now if he’d continued to go that route and I believe it would sound something like, “when is he gonna use all this ‘weaponized cap space’ instead of just signing these fourth liners like Bellemare and Lizzote? Vegas!… blah, blah, blah.”
It always cracks me up a bit that NHL teams spend millions of dollars to deploy layers and layers of personnel in performance analytics, finance, scouting, and management who have spent their entire professional lives in hockey when some guy on his couch could do the same job even better… and would probably do it for free. I’m not talking about you here Norm, I take what you’re saying here as more of an observation and it has a rational sense of humility to it… and I enjoyed reading it.
And just to clarify… Yes, GMs make mistakes – some of them dumb mistakes – but the simplicity of most of the criticism does not meet the complexity of the task… but then again, maybe I’m wrong.
I am not talking about the expansion draft in 2017. I am talking making a trade for Mark Stone in 2019 and Jack Eichel in 2021 for essentially nothing. It takes superior intellect, negotiating skills, and skills analysis to do what the Vegas guys have done SINCE the expansion draft. There a select group of GMs across the league who repeatedly demonstrate these skills and their teams are continually competitive. These GMs are ruthless in seeking talent. Unfortunately for Seattle fans, Francis is not one of those GMs and the roster fully shows it. Whether the Kraken go on a bit of a run after Dunn returns is likely neither here nor there for the longer term success of the franchise. As far as I can see, Francis reports to the daughter of David Bonderman but no one with any hockey ops experience. That means there is no reasonableness check on his moves, which is in dire need. Vegas did not get their game breakers during the expansion draft, they acquired them afterwards. That is my chief complaint with Francis, a lack of aggressiveness combined with insufficient analysis and weak negotiating skills. These are common skills needed for success in the business world, so why would any owner not insist on them from their leadership team? If the owners are so in love with Francis, then bump him upstairs but bring in a new GM who can analyze, negotiate, and ruthlessly deal with this situation before the Kraken before another Columbus or Buffalo.
…and he needlessly played Beniers one extra game burning his first ELC year!
My understanding is that entry-level contracts for NCAA players burn the first year on the first game played. The 10-game rule doesn’t apply.
Yes, that’s my understanding too… it’s but in Article 9 of the CBA… but when I tried to explain that to Chuck he insisted otherwise and cited a Hockey News article about the CHL.
First, give Vegas Front office a lot of credit for taking full advantage of panic’d GMs during 2017 expansion and for the Stone and Eichel signings (and others) both of which carried significant risk due to injury concerns but obviously has worked out for Vegas. There signings have worked out well, whether its luck, great front office or both, but there are no guarantees and imagine Vegas will have there run of bad signings at some point in future which will at some point get magnified but their very weak prospect pool.
Stone was signed at trade deadline of Vegas 2nd year. Vegas was already a stanely cup contender both during the Stone and Eichel signings. Eichel trade happened mid way thru krakens first year. In my opinion there is NO chance Eichel signs with expansion Seattle, especially coming from Buffalo. Unfortunately star players want to sign with contending teams. (I don’t think Tkachuk would have signed with Seattle in 2022 and had little to offer back to Calgary other than draft picks)
I would like to see Seattle sign these great players also but who exactly would they have been able to sign the last few years that would have wanted to play in Seattle. There have been very few if any elite players available. One player is not going to make a great team. Vegas has a riches of talent with arguably the strongest top to bottom defense core in the league. They like the Rangers, Carolina, Edmonton, Florida and several other contending teams can probably encourage most players to sign with them assuming they have salary cap.
Appears Francis has chosen to keep draft picks and build from within while trying to fill holes as best he can thru Free Agency. That is the choice of this organization and time will tell if that will work out.
Forget the expansion draft, although Francis should have come up with something rather than nothing.
It is the time since then. Trades for Stone, Eichel, Alec Martinez, Tomas Hertl, Adin Hill, Ivan Barbashev, etc. The list is very long of aggressive but well risked trades. These were the result of not GM luck but skill.
Here is what Alex Pietrangelo said after signing with Vegas 3 years after they started “Obviously the atmosphere; I mean, I think everybody agrees it’s probably the best place to play in the NHL right now.”
Does anything think that Francis has created the same feeling among NHL players?
According to the Hockey News today: “The Seattle Kraken have reportedly received calls on forwards Brandon Tanev and Yanni Gourde and could be inclined to move them, per the Daily Faceoff’s Frank Seravalli.” Vegas would have made those moves last season at the latest. Do we think Francis will do so and in a way that makes the team better now?
You can believe as you wish about Francis. I remain convinced the Kraken will never take that important step up until they change the GM. Even Columbus recognized it finally and brought in an experienced GM. Any GM can say wait 3-5 years before the young players develop. Better GMs win now and later.
I think the trades discussed here – Stone and Eichel – point out a couple of the greatest challenges a team like Seattle faces… and it’s not that Ron Francis isn’t ruthless or lacks intellect… it’s that often it’s the players that dictate the destination in these trades and you have to be somewhere players want to go. It’s also being properly positioned to make those deals.
Mark Stone was on a one year contract in Ottawa and a pending UFA. Even though he had no trade protection, Newport (his agency) made it clear to teams that there were only a couple places he would resign, and possibly just one… Vegas. But why would he want to go to Vegas? Probably because they miraculously went to the Final in their first year. Oh, it’s that pesky expansion draft thing again. Vegas was able to trade for Stone because that’s where he wanted to go.
Jack Eichel was also without trade protection and he had lots of term remaining. Several teams seemed interested even with the widely reported neck issue. Given the terrible relationship in Buffalo, it seems like quite a few teams could have been an option – a situation that worked to Buffalo’s benefit. Ultimately, Vegas ended up making a deal that saw three centers – all drafted in the top twenty overall – go to Buffalo. (Tuch, Krebs, Östlund). That’s a big price to pay, but for a team whose been knocking on the door, they’re well positioned to make that deal.
Seattle is not a place where players are demanding to go and they’re not yet positioned to be sending a boatload of assets out the door to get them over the top… so that leaves free agency… ya know… that place where the revered Golden Knights landed Alex Pietrangelo. Well, Francis did wrangle the top UFA right-shot d-man this year before the opening of free agency… but since it wasn’t Vegas making that move… whatever. Was landing Pietrangelo a “bigger, better deal”? Probably, but so far I’m good with the Montour signing.
So Chuck… what are the moves that should have been made? The “realistic” moves. Curtis would have preferred a trade to signing Stephenson but can’t really say what that actually could have been. He also would have preferred another Bellemare or Blake Lizzote. Is there something other than “be like Vegas”?
It is slightly ridiculous for expect two non-GMs to be analyzing prospective hockey transactions, as that is the role of the GM with all the inside information and access. All we can see from the outside is the result. As I just posted above, Francis had not (1) made this a top destination for players, which is inexplicable given the city, the tax situation, the arena, the funds available from ownership, the cap space, etc. and (2) has not aggressively and consistently pursued roster moves that have made the current team into a consistent playoff performer. He is a middling GM and the roster reflects that. If the Kraken aspire to be at the top the league, they need to hire a top GM. That is my point and you can disagree if you wish but I will leave it there.
So besides talking about what Vegas has done how about giving some actual examples of moves you think Francis should have made.
As far as moving Tanev and Gourde… as you stated, “It is slightly ridiculous [to] expect two non-GMs to be analyzing prospective hockey transactions, as that is the role of the GM with all the inside information and access.” I agree, but you seem to be be dismissing your own statement. Without actually knowing what’s being offered it’s hard to draw conclusions. There were plenty of folks who complained about Francis not moving Schultz, but given where he’s ended up – to just about everyone’s surprise – I’d say he wasn’t being offered anything in return.
Your other point – Francis hasn’t made Seattle a top destination IN THREE SEASONS! I would say you need to get over Vegas. So far that’s been your answer to everything. I think the argument that Francis needs to go because Seattle isn’t Vegas is ridiculous… and I’ll leave it at that.
Wow, you have 8 different posts on this one article! You can have your opinion but other fans believe Francis should go. It is up to the owners to decide and apparently they are no longer happy. As a thought exercise, imagine the roles were reversed. Francis was in charge of Vegas at the expansion draft and since. Can you still envision their current success? Then imagine the Vegas guys at the Kraken expansion draft and since. Can you see a different outcome? Lots of Kraken/Francis talk around the hockey world now.
Hello Moist… I guess now it’s nine. This place is, to me, hands down the best place to “banter” about the Kraken on the whole wide world wide web.
I get that other fans believe Francis should go. I can even sympathize with that view to some degree. What I am questioning – and as such discussing through posts – is the rational behind those views. I can understand disappointment with the record and maybe even concerns with development (Wright). Those are both debatable, but what to me seems like the obvious No.1 issue is roster construction. The free agency record is certainly spotty – Grubauer, Burakovski, Stephenson – but the first two were not blasted at the time and the Grubauer signing was widely applauded. Schwartz seems to have been a decent signing (Dunn was the expansion pick) and for now Montour seems like the sort of move that critics of Francis would crave more of… going out and landing the best defenseman available.
On trades there have actually been quite a few, though most of them have been clearing out UFAs at the deadline. Bjorkstrand stands out as the closest thing to “big” acquisition, but he’s certainly not a “game changer” when it comes to building a team. When it comes to making those high-profile deals, I think you have to be a team players want to go to and/or you need to be in your “window” and able to spend assets. Three years in, Seattle – understandably to me – is not either one of those teams yet.
So if you’re not happy with the roster construction, I think to be fair you have to ask what the alternatives were. It seems to me the most common alternative folks seem to arrive at can be summed up in one word… Vegas. Which brings me to your thought experiment… I love it!
If “Francis was in charge of Vegas at the expansion draft and since. Can you still envision their current success?”
For me difficult to say, for others the obvious answer is no. I think you need to start with a bit of luck. No one had William Karlsson scoring 40 goals. That said, acquiring Theodore and Tuck and 10 draft picks via trade… brilliant. McCrimmon was willing to eat a lot of “bad” contracts and if I’m being honest, I don’t think even if Francis was in the position Vegas was in with teams dealing to unload contracts he would have leaned into that nearly as much. The other trades were done to protect players – who mostly turned out to be not worth protecting. I think it’s on this second front where teams really learned their lessons. From what I was reading at the time, Francis was looking to make those deals, but after the last time, GMs we not making the mistake again. The clearest example I can recall was the Calgary pick. Lifelong Flame, team captain, and recent Norris Trophy winner Mark Giordano went unprotected due to the teams roster construction. It was widely reported at the time that Seattle was asking a first and a third to “pass” on Gio, a price I would call consistent with the deals Vegas made. Treliving refused to trade at those prices and Seattle took Giordano instead. At the time the take in the media seemed mostly to be Francis was asking too much. Subsequently, Calgary took Matt Coronato with their No.1 and Seattle ended up turning Giordano into Kokko and Drageicevic. If I imagine the Vegas guys drafting for the Kraken, I certainly don’t see them getting “home run” trades and I don’t see the team being anything close to the expansion Golden Knights.
So when I run through the whole thought experiment I think Francis would not have ended up where Vegas did, but he’d probably have a better team than Seattle has so far and I think the prospect pool would be much deeper than what Vegas has now. I also think in Seattle, McCrimmon would not have had nearly as many deals done and the “bad” contracts teams were looking to move would not have paid the dividends they did in 2017.
And just briefly Moist… No.10.
I know there’s lots of talk that, as you put it, ownership is no longer happy with Francis, but this being a notoriously tight-lipped organization, I’m not sure how accurate that is. It would seem to be an obvious conclusion given the off-season departures from his “standard operating procedures”, but he’s also been the same guy they hired who was the guy that built out the foundation in Carolina.
Given who Seattle hired, I think a better benchmark than McCrimmon and Vegas might be Yzerman and Detroit… but that’s just a thought. I haven’t really dug into the Red Wings.
John, what was the average high-danger shots per game in the 2021-2022 season? It seems to me that the team overall is actually worse this year and last than in 2021-2022. That Year One team, at least until the trade deadline, had the advantage on shots and attempts on a lot of nights but got killed by awful goaltending. We complain about Grubauer being consistently bad, but he was actually *historically* bad in Year One, and has merely been sub-average in the subsequent seasons (and we’ve had Good Joey last year and this year).
Just pulled year one data. I could not believe it when I saw it but year one had the highest HD shots per game in any season with 7.66. Now the interesting part is season one had the lowest HD goals per game with 1.28. season two had 1.59 and the current season has 1.38 which was more than last season 1.28. My theory is season one did not have that great shooters as a whole which seems legit when you think Burky (season two), Bjorkstrand, and a full season of Sprong during season two.
Thanks John! that could be.
This is actually not shocking to me at all. It conforms with my experience/recollection being that Year One was actually a fun team to watch that generated a lot of chances and played good defense, but just could not get the puck to go in and could not buy a save. That is, until they were truly out of it in the 2nd half and traded away some pieces, and then things deteriorated overall.
It’s worth reminding people that the same national analytics writers that are down on the Kraken now (and whom Kraken fans like to dismiss based on “east coast bias” or whatever) actually predicted prior to Year One that the Kraken had a shot at a playoff spot, and the underlying numbers were indeed pretty good as they predicted. Mainly the goaltending, plus puck luck (combined with finishing skill issues, as John says) killed them. Year Two, they signed Burakovsky, Sprong went nuts, grubauer (and jones) were not great but better than Year One, and in general the puck started REALLY going in — at a totally unsustainable rate — even as those expansion-acquisition vets aged a year. This year and last year they are hardly ever out-chancing or out-shooting opponents.
ok two last data point that speaks a but to what you are talking about.
HD shots against:
S1: 7.68
S2: 7.63
S3: 6.44
S4: 1.54
HD goals against:
S1: 1.84
S2: 1.70
S3: 1.44
S4: 1.54
There is HD shooting against percentage in there as well that I could do as well. I’ll dig into this a bit this week. I imagine what killed us a bit in season one was the MD and LD goals against per game. Those are what I remember as the killers.
I said something similar in another post but since it’s being talked about here and now…
Francis needs to go because he is unwilling to admit his mistakes and part ways with his mistakes. He’s boxed himself into a hole that he’s trying to get out of by making more mistakes. He’s not going to get himself out of this without cutting ties with a lot of his FA signings, he’s just not going to do that.
It seems – and this is just an impression – it seems early on when they were getting more high-danger chances they were getting bodies to the front of the net. Now I seem to see more and more shots with nobody there… kinda like last season.
Last time we played the Avs, Toews got activated off IR just ahead of the game, this time it’s Lehkonen. If I had to pick a date, I’d say Landeskog gets activated December 22nd – they play Seattle at home that day.
I’m not starting to panic. I’ve said it a few times already, the 20 game mark (mentioned by John and Bylsma) is when I’ll even begin to worry and the end of November is when – for me – it’ll be panic time. I would say the schedule has been a pretty tough one so I think things are still a little difficult to gage. John did mention this team has the same number of standings points at this mark of the season as last years team. That team isn’t one to emulate; however, they were in a playoff spot on Thanksgiving. A lot can happen in November.
One other item… I know everyone is focused on the offense – for good reason – but I think it’s worth pointing out… they haven’t gotten blown out once in a game this season. Excluding empty net goals, they’ve only given up four goals in regulation twice – and they won both of those games. Last season at this point they had a couple losses where they surrendered four or more in regulation and lost, in one they got crushed by Calgary six to three. The season before – the hundred point season – in five of their first ten games they gave up four or more in regulation and lost every one of those. Even though their standings points percentage has them in the bottom quarter of the league, their goal differential (-2) is in the top half… and they’re also just two points out of a playoff spot today.
I’m going to be optimistic and say they are building out from a solid foundation.
Go Kraken!!!
Thanks for the content, John.
I’m not in panick-mode yet. But I’ll be honest, I’m not as critical as some – and that’s OK. We can all be fans the way we want to be fans. And I understand the discontent with what’s going on.
I sure would love to see Beniers and Wright really turn it up a notch this year. That hasn’t happened yet, although there was a glimpse with Matty’s breakout game. But now how long ago was that?
I want meaningful hockey at the end of the season, and that can still happen. But the closer we get to that 20-game mark, the harder it is to imagine that happening.
With the easier access to Kraken games on TV this year (yeah!), it seems like the team is missing a golden opportunity to solidify this team at the forefront of fans’ minds.
Let’s Go Kraken!!
The only word that can describe the last 3 games is “ugh”
Overall, I think there is a lack of discipline with puck handling and passing. I’m so tired of passes to nowhere or into the skates of the opposing team. I’m tired of forwards dumping the puck into the offensive zone and trying to beat a (faster defender) to it. Wright and Kartye are possibly the biggest offenders of both of these things…which is interesting as 2 players who have played under Byalsma. It could be inexperience, but when I also combine that with Daccord’s lack of discipline staying in-net, it’s making me think there’s a coaching element involved and that what was working in the AHL isn’t translating into the big show.
How tough has the schedule been?
Colorado at 5-7-0 is the only team Seattle has lost to with a points percentage below .500. They lost that game 3-2. The only other teams the Kraken have faced with sub-.500 points percentage are the Flyers, Preds, and Habs each at 4-7-1. They won each of those games scoring six, seven, and eight goals respectively.
The split between opponents with winning and losing records so far has been 9 to 4. For the remainder of November it’s 4 to 8.
Less than 1/3 of their potential opponents (10/31 teams) have a points percentage below .500. That can’t be the line for acceptable/unacceptable losses. They do not have a regulation win against an opponent with a current (as of the end of 11/4 games) points percentage over .375.
I was trying to point out the difficulty in the schedule they’ve faced versus the one ahead. In a league with a loser point, you can’t just win in regulation over the teams below fake .500, there aren’t enough of them, but 8 of the next 12 are against those supposedly weaker teams.
According to Tankathon:
The Lightning face the easiest remaining schedule for the season at .525. The Kraken’s remaing November teams average out at an even .500. Given where teams are now, the schedule so far has been the seventh most difficult in the league. The six teams with more difficult schedules all have equal or worse points percentages than Seattle. By the end of November, the Kraken’s overall season schedule to that point projects to be the 30th most difficult.
If they’re still “struggling” at the end of November… I’ll panic.
The computer projections that play out thousands of simulations have the Kraken at between 9% (moneypuck) and 11% (the Athletic). This of course factors in strength of schedule etc. They have already turned themselves from fringe bubble team into long shot. However I’m not panicking because I never expected them to make the playoffs this year to behin with. They are who we thought they were.
Keep the faith Foist…
In the hundred point season Dom at the Athletic had the Kraken as low as 14% around the beginning of November and later in that season, during a hot streak, MoneyPuck had them with the best odds in the entire league to WIN the Stanley Cup.
Every year Dom’s model misses big on at least a couple teams and two of the last three seasons Seattle had been one of those teams. The MoneyPuck model heavily weighs recent results and one week ago they had the Kraken above 50%.
There was a really good article on ESPN or Sportsnet about how Vegas operates their trades and cap different from the rest of the league which allows them to make those big name trades. Too my knowledge they have also yet to develop any internal talent (I could be wrong, not really a team I follow in that sense).
And just saw Winterton was recalled to the Kraken today.
Yanni?
No way. Trading Yanni at this point in the season would be way too gutsy a move for Francis. So would benching a veteran like Burakovsky or Tanev. On the other hand, I also hold out hope they’re not dumb enough to call up Winterton just to sit in the press box — although they did that for WAY too long with Evans last year, so maybe I shouldn’t underestimate how dumb they are. My guess is: Either someone is a little banged up, or they’re sitting Kartye.
My thought is also wondering if one of the forwards has a kid coming soon a la Montour and just needing coverage. But Hayden is already up. Personally I’d like to see Hayden get some tine also.
Hayden would do nothing to help their scoring woes. Winterton probably won’t either, but at least there’s a chance.
Agree on not helping the scoring, but also feels like Seattle is missing a physical aspect which Hayden has always excelled at. If we aren’t going to score, let’s at least make us not fun to play against. Or at least put someone out there that will create some time and space for some shots. Some players are better with the puck on their stick, others are better without it. Seems like we don’t have much of either right now.
Why would they sit Kartye? That’s just crazy, you want to sit your leading hitter and a player that forechecks hard while your openly saying the team needs to be more physical…. 😂 He isn’t the reason we’re not scoring goals, the benching needs to be higher up the lineup, think Burky.
I didn’t say that’s what they SHOULD do, I said it’s my best guess as to what they WILL do. Kartye has the lowest ice time on the team, and he’s only a 2nd year player. It’s the past of least resistance, which is the path this team usually chooses. But who knows, we’ll see.
Actually they posted the lineups, and the Kraken got a little gutsier than I thought. They are scratching Bjorkstrand, Kartye and Mahura in favor of Winterton, Hayden and Fleury. Bjorkstrand has indeed been terrible this season, especially the past few games.
John great article, is it possible to dig a little deeper into this first goal stat? I know the odds definitely drop to below 30% of winning if you don’t score first.
What I’m curious about is how Daccords stats differ from Grubauers in the first period of the game. Is there really a big difference between the two goalies as it appears that there is in terms of the “early goal against”? Does this translate into better odds of winning from one goalie to the next, what does the actual stats show?
I was not expecting Bjorkstrand to get benched, especially since I rather liked the line he briefly shared with Stephenson and Schwartz. I think the message, though, is loud and clear–absolutely nobody on the roster, no matter how accomplished, gets to coast; you earn your job every day. I hope that this move will not hit Ollie the wrong way, because I really would not like to lose him. I don’t even know that he was coasting. He may have been chosen, not just because of his lack of production but also because of the position he plays–right wing–which is exactly where Ryan Winterton happens to play. Eberle and Tanev have been bringing it all season, so benching them would not work, and Burakovsky… it would hurt him a lot more that it would Ollie. Besides, Burky’s problem has absolutely not been a lack of effort. Just watching him, you can tell that he is giving it his all trying to work through whatever the hell it is that is making him fan on shots and misplay pucks. You don’t bench a guy who is working hard; not only is it bad for him but because it sends entirely the wrong message. That leaves Bjorkstrand as the best guy to make an example of. Boy, I hope that Bylsma did that “communication” thing that is apparently so important to coaching.