We have officially reached the All-Star break/bye week.The Seattle Kraken are sitting fifth in the Pacific Division and two points behind the St. Louis Blues for the last playoff spot. We figured now would be a fine time for a good, old fashioned Sound Of Hockey Kraken Roundtable to take a pulse check on how we’re feeling about the season so far and what to expect the rest of the way.
Sound Of Hockey contributors Blaiz Grubic, Cameron Riggers, Curtis Isacke, John Barr, and Darren Brown all got together to answer some (not so) burning questions.
Enjoy!
Who is your outstanding performer of the season so far?
Blaiz: Joey Daccord. First, I was excited to see him even make the Kraken as the back-up this year. As he has taken over the starting job, I have enjoyed watching his style, especially how he plays the puck. This is something that makes me nervous in most goalies, but Daccord does it so well. I am in awe watching it.
Cameron: I think Vince Dunn. I love the consistency that he plays with, adding value to all facets of the game and playing with poise while not being afraid to lay a body out or get in someone else’s grill. I feel like I never notice him because he’s so seamless in his defensive style of play, and when I do notice him, it’s usually because he’s contributing offensively. He’s been underrated by many national circles for some time, and I think he’s really turned himself into a solid No. 1 defenseman.
John: As Blaiz mentioned, I think it has to be Joey Daccord. The budding star netminder has two shutouts and a .917 save percentage, and I don’t know where this team would be in the standings without him. It is great to see him get regular reps in the NHL, where we’re finding out what he’s capable of doing.
Honorable mention to Tomas Tatar. The Kraken traded for him for virtually nothing, and he has impressed me since he got here. He has been making his linemates better ever since his first day with the club.
Curtis: I agree that Daccord is probably the performer who stands apart from the pack. Advanced metrics rank his performance preventing shots from becoming goals somewhere between above average and elite. And, as I investigated (Part I, Part II), he may be having an even more significant impact on the game beyond that.
But since Daccord has received significant shine already, I need to call out Seattle’s one consistent goal scorer: Jared McCann. Coming off a 40-goal season, he has 20 goals so far this year, which is a 33-goal pace and represents 14.4 percent of the team total.
Pair this with solid defense and the ability to provide value on all special teams units, and I shudder to think where Seattle would be without McCann. Before the season, I was guarded in my expectations for the Kraken because I didn’t see the goal scoring beyond McCann. At least he has held up his end of the bargain.
Darren: Joey! Joey! Joey!
What is the biggest disappointment of the season so far?
Cameron: I’m hesitant to say the younger players, but their production hasn’t met my expectations coming into the season. Seattle has only gotten 19 points from Matty Beniers, 15 from Tye Kartye, and four from Ryker Evans, though his playing time has been limited. I know it’s difficult to expect the world from those players, given that they’re all still so young, but from the expectations they created for themselves last year (especially Beniers and Kartye), I was hopeful for a bit more.
John: I love love love Andre Burakovsky, but he has been a big disappointment this year. ‘Burky’ has one of the best shots on the team but only has one goal over the 19 games he has played. I know he has missed a lot of hockey over the last year due to injury, so I think it is just a matter of time before he returns to form.
Darren: I’m with you, John. I keep waiting for Burakovsky to Burrrrreak out (get it?), but it just hasn’t happened. The real disappointment with him, though, is just how much time he’s had to miss again this season. After rehabbing from a serious groin injury all offseason, he returned for a few games, got hurt again, played two periods, and got hurt a third time. That’s a tough, tough go for that guy.
He’s been a streaky scorer historically, so maybe after this break he can catch fire.
Curtis: You’re all right, those are disappointments. Given that Beniers is still working through clear development challenges, I’ll focus on Burakovsky.
Even when he’s been out there, he hasn’t been a factor. And there are only so many times you can rationalize his lack of production by telling yourself, “To be fair, he has only played x games in the last two months.”
I don’t think he’s found a comfortable fit in Seattle’s north-south, forechecking style. He is more inclined to slow the game, possess the puck as a playmaker, and send passes east-west. Stylistically, it just hasn’t clicked yet. He hasn’t been “bad,” but he should be one of the team’s higher-end play drivers, and that simply hasn’t happened. The skills are there, but he rarely looks in sync with his teammates. With three years left on his deal after this one, Burakovsky and the coaching staff need to find a solution.
Blaiz: The slow start to the season was a bummer for me. After the high of the playoffs last year, it was just a letdown to start the year with four straight losses. After that, it was even more disappointing to see the team just treading water for a bit before a swift kick to a body part resulting in a medium-body injury when the Kraken lost eight straight.
Are you buying, selling, or holding at the deadline? (If you are holding explain when you will decide… i.e., After the first road trip.)
John: I don’t know if you can consider this selling, but I would always be listening. I don’t think any of the players are untouchable, which means it just comes down to price. Even if the Kraken are in the playoff picture, I think they can move a pending free agent or two for the right price.
The biggest need for the Kraken right now is high-end talent, and the only real way to get that talent is through the draft. Any draft pick the Kraken get in a trade is likely a mid-to-late second-round draft pick. Second-round picks can turn into good players, but they rarely turn into elite-tier NHL performers.
Blaiz: I think it depends on if the Kraken have a realistic chance to make the playoffs. I am holding until that is not an option. The Kraken have a tough February schedule, so in the later part of the month, we should have a clearer picture.
I typically plan for the best, meaning they will make the playoffs. Assuming that happens, I am still holding; I am not ready to mortgage the future yet. That said, I do believe every player has a price so if something comes up that can make the team better, the Kraken should jump on it.
Darren: Blaiz and I are in the same camp here. While my heart would LOVE to see Seattle make a splash and go for it, my brain knows that’s not how Ron Francis operates, nor should he at this moment in time. I would expect either A.) what the team did in the inaugural season—selling all expiring contracts for draft picks—if Seattle is out of the playoffs at the deadline, or B.) standing pat, like the team did last season and doing what they can with that group.
Cameron: I really think that this next road trip to some of the Eastern Conference’s top teams will have a real say in where this club will go. I don’t think it’s in the position to be in either full-on buying or selling mode. Frankly, the Kraken exist in that awkward middle ground between competitive and not, but if they go something like 0-3-1 after the break, and the teams around them stay consistent, then they will be almost forced to shop their expiring UFA’s around.
A decision needs to be made soon, though. I personally think selling is the best thing for the future of this team, but what the Kraken do depends on where this next road trip takes them.
Curtis: Barring something truly unforeseen, Seattle shouldn’t be a “buyer” at the deadline. I don’t think that makes sense given where the team is in the arc of its roster and player development pipeline.
The team has a number of expiring contracts for players in their early-to-mid 30’s who would be risky to re-sign, given their ages. This makes me strongly inclined to listen to offers. That said, I agree that the team should hold its water as long as possible. The trade deadline is March 8, so make a tentative decision about whether to move forward with selling after the Feb. 22 home game against Vancouver.
Give us a reason to be optimistic or pessimistic about the last 32 games
John: I am generally an optimistic person, but I wake up aware of the challenges of the day. Looking at historical data, 33 percent of teams with 52 points in 50 games make the playoffs. That means 66 percent do not make it. That said, I do believe this team will continue to make a run at one of the wild card spots. Beniers, Jaden Schwartz, and Burakovsky have not been sharp since coming back from their respective injuries, and I think it is just a matter of time before they get going again.
Cameron: I’ll give a reason for optimism and one for pessimism.
Optimistic – After their road trip, the Kraken will play 15 of their next 19 games at home, practically spending their entire end of February and all of March in Seattle. They won’t really leave the Pacific time zone either, aside from a few central time one-offs. This streaky team can really play into becoming a more consistent club over the next two months by the favorable schedule, which will allow them to settle into a routine.
Pessimistic – The schedule lightens up for the teams around the Kraken in the standings as well, with Nashville, St. Louis, and Minnesota all set to enjoy easier strengths of schedule. Seattle still has to play Boston twice and Winnipeg three times, so there are some tough matchups ahead.
Blaiz: I’m optimistic. Since Daccord has taken the reins, the Kraken have a .659 points percentage in 22 games. If they can maintain that pace, they would capture 42 points, putting them at 94 on the season. That is definitely in the conversation for making the playoffs. Adding to what John researched, of the 33 percent of teams that made the playoffs after racking up 52 points in 50 games, 55 percent of those teams got into the playoffs with 93 or fewer points. This shows that 94 points would put the Kraken in a decent position to sneak in.
Curtis: Looking at the team’s on-ice play, I’m optimistic. Seattle’s roster is almost entirely healthy now, and the last three games against St. Louis, Columbus, and San Jose were actually three of the team’s strongest in terms of controlling overall shot quality (yes, I know they went 1-1-1 in those games and faced two bad opponents). Add to that strong play in goal, and there is reason to be confident this team will perform well down the stretch.
I must admit to some nagging pessimism, though. As has been discussed, the numbers indicate it is still an uphill climb to make the playoffs. But, more than that, I worry the team will get trapped in an “in between” position where it isn’t a true playoff threat but doesn’t sell either and misses a chance to acquire additional assets for the future. It’s an uncomfortable way to watch these games.
Darren: I think you hit the nail on the head when you mentioned the team’s health, Curtis. I’m sometimes too optimistic for my own good, but Seattle can win in a lot of different ways when healthy. Dave Hakstol has only had the luxury of rolling four lines for a handful of games this season, and coming out of the break, the team should be as healthy as it has been since Opening Night (and deeper than they were on Opening Night, since Tatar wasn’t here yet).
If they can stay relatively healthy down the stretch, I think the Kraken have a strong chance at the playoffs.
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Now it is your turn. What would be your responses to these questions? Leave your thoughts in the comment section.
Tuesday was a tough night for Kraken fans, who watched their team mostly dominate the first 40 minutes against the bottom-dwelling San Jose Sharks, but a scoreless first two periods left the Seattle faithful feeling uneasy. If you watched that game rooting for the visitors, you knew what was coming in the third period.
Indeed, Marc-Edouard Vlasic broke through with a seeing-eye shot from the left point at 7:27 of the third period, bringing devastation and big reactions from across Kraken Nation. In the end, Seattle sent 32 pucks toward goalie Mackenzie Blackwood, finding zero offensive success on the night and getting shutout for the fifth time this season.
It WAS a trap!
The Kraken should have listened to Admiral Ackbar.
Every indication entering this game pointed toward Tuesday being a trap game for the Kraken. It was the last game before a long break, and Seattle’s players surely had their minds at least partially wandering to the vacations they had planned (well, except Oliver Bjorkstrand, who famously had to cancel his trip to San Diego in favor of a visit to Toronto for the NHL All-Star Game).
Mix in an almost empty building, an assumption the Kraken would win, and recent memories of the last time Seattle played San Jose (a 7-1 bloodbath after which the Sharks left Climate Pledge Arena feeling embarrassed), and you just knew this game could go in the wrong direction.
Coach Dave Hakstol acknowledged after Seattle’s win over Columbus on Sunday that bringing full focus would be important for the game Tuesday, and we do think the players brought a decent effort. It wasn’t the best they’ve had all season, but it was enough to beat San Jose most nights. Still, they didn’t do enough to get inside and get Blackwood moving in his goal crease, and the result was an uninspiring offensive performance.
Sure, the Sharks are one of the worst teams in the NHL, but they’re also professional hockey players who came into Tuesday with a chip on their shoulder. They defended well and got great goaltending, and the Kraken didn’t have a strong enough performance to break through.
Stay the course
So what should we feel about this dreadful loss? Is it truly time to jump ship and call for an organizational fire sale? Should Seattle cut ties with players on expiring contracts and play the Shane Wrights, Ryker Evanses, and Ryan Wintertons of the world?
Our short answers to each of the three questions above are, “Angry for now, but move on,” “No,” and “No.”
Kraken fans should be incensed about the outcome of that game, but it is not yet time to jump ship, and it is not yet time to sell off veteran players for draft capital. The Kraken’s playoff chances are hanging by a thread, but one game (or even a handful of games) does not an 82-game season make.
As terrible as that game felt—and don’t get us wrong, it was terrible to lose to the Sharks on a night when the Kraken just had to have the two points—it didn’t do that much damage to the team’s playoff outlook. It was a massive missed opportunity because the Kraken could have jumped back to level in the standings with Los Angeles, St. Louis, and Nashville, who all have 54 points (worth noting, the Kraken and Predators have each played 50 games, whereas the Blues have played 49, and the Kings have played just 47). But, it certainly didn’t eliminate Seattle from contention, and a lot can happen in Seattle’s remaining 32 games.
We aren’t trying to sugarcoat the loss; it was bad, horrendous, painful… whatever negative adjective you want to use to describe it, it was that. But it didn’t cost Seattle the season.
Hakstol talked us off the ledge
Every now and then, Hakstol’s level-headed approach to media availability is just what Kraken fans and media need. Even I—a perpetual optimist about the team’s chances—was ready to throw in the towel after that loss.
But when asked if he wants his players to spend the break dwelling on this performance, Hakstol guffawed and put things into perspective. He said Seattle lost a hockey game to a group that worked their tails off and defended hard, and the Kraken were disappointed to have lost. But did he want the team to sulk about the loss during their time away from the rink?
“We’ve worked extremely hard over the last couple of months, digging in and doing some good things to put ourselves in a position [to compete for a playoff spot]… It’s a sprint to the finish from there. It’s a 32-game playoff hunt, and for that, I want our guys to wash this pretty quickly, get a little bit of rest, and come back with a great mindset.”
He also used the phrase “control our own destiny,” which the Kraken can still do, even after this inconsistent stretch of play since Seattle’s 13-game point streak ended on Jan. 15.
Post-break games are pivotal
So we aren’t ready to jump ship yet, and the Kraken front office shouldn’t be cutting any ties either. But… BUT… the games after the All-Star pause and bye week will be make or break. The Kraken need to get out of the gate hot after this hiatus, or the time to sell will creep up very quickly.
Thinking back to last season, the Kraken were starting to sputter, having won eight in a row, then dropping four of their last seven before this break. But they won the last game before the All-Star Game, 3-1 over Columbus and went away with good feelings.
They exited the break with a five-game road trip to the East Coast (similar to what they face starting on Feb. 10 this season) and stunk, dropping four of five on the trip and seven out of 10 from Feb. 7 to Feb. 26. If the Kraken do something similar after the break this season, they will be cooked. So, those games on the other side are critical.
How are you feeling, folks? What’s your response to Elmo?
Darren Brown
Darren Brown is the Chief Content Officer at soundofhockey.com and the host of the Sound Of Hockey Podcast. He is a member of the PHWA and is also usually SOH’s Twitter intern (but please pretend you don’t know that). Follow him @DarrenFunBrown and @sound_hockey or email darren@soundofhockey.com.
This is Part II of What the Kraken can do with their pending unrestricted free agents. Part I can be found here. In Part I, we reviewed the Seattle’s pending UFA’s that are over 30 years old and outlined what can be done with each of the four players. For Part II, we will shift our focus to the trio of UFA’s under 30 years old.
Kraken UFA players
For review, these are the seven pending UFA’s in question, split by over/under 30 years of age.
Alex Wennberg (Age 29) – Target: re-sign for four years at $4.5 million AAV
Alex Wennberg was signed to a three-year, $13.5M deal as a free agent in the days following the Expansion Draft. Wennberg is one of the more divisive players on the Kraken, as fans either love what he brings to the team or desperately want him to shoot more.
Let’s start this with a little quiz, but don’t worry; it will be easy. (Hint: The answer to every question is “Alex Wennberg.”)
Iron-man Adam Larsson has played every Kraken game, but who is next in games played? Wennberg. 208 games and counting.
What Kraken forward has the most blocked shots in franchise history? Wennberg. 156. The next closest forward is Brandon Tanev at 121.
What forward has averaged the most ice time per game over the first three seasons? Wennberg. 18:23 average time-on-ice per game. He also averages the highest power-play-plus-penalty-kill time of any forward on the team with a 3:50 (PP: 2:06, PK 1:44) average per game.
Most face-offs taken? Wennberg. He has led in the number of face-offs taken overall in every Kraken season.
Who leads the Kraken in percentage of high-danger shots at 15.38 percent? Wennberg.
What player leads the team in takeaways minus giveaways? Wennberg. He leads the team in both takeaways at 158 and takeaways minus giveaways at 88. “Best friend of the pod,” Alison Lukan, wrote a great article on this topic last year.
How did you do on the quiz? If you got less than seven out of seven, feel free to try again. Remember the answer is “Wennberg.”
The Swedish center is trusted in all situations on the ice, consistently rolled out on the PP and PK, and is defensively sound. To address the amount of shots Wennberg takes, this is nothing new to his playing style, but the key to focus on is that he opts to pass rather than take low-percentage shots. But he takes high-percentage shots as they are available. Here is a heatmap of Wennberg’s shot attempts this season, as found on Moneypuck.com.
The following three trades were used for comparison (player name, age when traded):
Andrew Copp (Age 27) – The New York Rangers sent first-, second-, and fifth-round picks plus an AHL prospect to Winnipeg in 2022.
Lars Eller (Age 32) – Colorado traded a second-round pick to Washington in 2023.
Eric Staal (Age 36) – Buffalo fetched third- and fifth-round picks from Montreal in 2021.
At 29, Wennberg should fall somewhere between the Eller and Copp trades, if Seattle decides to move him. A first-round return might be asking a bit much, but a second-rounder and an additional pick is more practical.
Shane Wright is developing in the AHL and will look to make the Kraken next year. This does create a log jam in the center position if Wennberg stays, but having too many centers is a good thing, and the Kraken have options with the current rostered players that can play both wing and center. We would rather see Wright make the team first and eventually ease him into a top-six center role. Keeping Wennberg around gives them the ability to do that.
Wennberg, a former first-round pick, has a 10-team modified no-trade clause (M-NTC).
What it would take to re-sign Wennberg?
Three comparable contracts were used (player name, contract terms, age when signed):
Vincent Trocheck (seven year at $5.625M AAV, signing age 29) – First-line center averaging over 21 minutes per game. This physical forward also plays in all situations and averages 50-60 points a season. It helps that Artemi Panarin plays on his wing.
Phillip Danault (six years at $5.5M AAV, signing age 28) – Shutdown center that has a scoring touch, tallying over 50 points in each of the past two seasons.
Alexander Kerfoot (two years at $3.5M AAV, signing age 28) – Since joining Arizona, Kerfoot has played both PP and PK minutes. He has a career average of ~40 points a season.
Wennberg is currently at $4.5M AAV, so he falls in the middle of these contracts, and that is about right. Both Trocheck and Danault were able to sign longer-term deals due to their skill sets. The defensive-minded Wennberg is in the same camp and will be looking for the longest term possible (four-plus years).
We think the Seattle Kraken will look to capitalize on his early 30’s and try for another three-year deal. We see the AAV landing in the $4-$5.5M range with a three-to-five-year term.
Chris Driedger (Age 29) – Target: Let walk
The goaltender was the Kraken’s Expansion Draft pick from the Florida Panthers after he compiled 21 wins and a .930 save percentage over two years. Unfortunately, the Canadian netminder has not panned out in Seattle, posting an .899 save percentage in the inaugural season before getting injured in the IIHF World Championship in 2022. Since that time, Driedger has only played two NHL games and spent the rest of his time in the AHL.
The WHL product cleared waivers after this season’s training camp, as other NHL teams did not want any part of his $3.5M cap hit.
With Philipp Grubauer being activated off injured reserve Tuesday, Driedger was re-assigned to the Coachella Valley Firebirds. A trade still could happen, but there are currently teams in need of goaltending, and a deal has yet to be done. This indicates his cap hit and small sample size, since returning from injury, are issues. The Kraken will most likely keep Driedger as an insurance plan in the AHL, in case there is a future goalie injury. We foresee Seattle letting Driedger and his 10-team M-NTC walk at the end of the season.
Devin Shore (Age 29) – Target: Trade for a fifth-round pick
The veteran of over 400 games is the perfect depth insurance policy. He can play center or wing and jump up and down the lineup as needed. Having this flexibility is something that NHL clubs in the playoffs value. Shore is on a two-way contract, meaning he is paid $250K in the AHL and the league-minimum $775K when with the Kraken.
The following two trades were used for comparison (player name, age when traded):
Curtis Lazar (27) – New Jersey sent a fourth-round pick to Vancouver in 2023.
Ryan Carpenter (31) – Calgary traded a fifth-round pick to Chicago in 2022.
In return for Shore, a fourth- or fifth-round pick could be expected.
Overall
Trades are hard to predict, and we don’t see the Kraken pulling the trigger to sell, as long as they have a path to the playoffs. Another aspect that was not covered is the NHL salary cap is expected to go up to $87.7M next year, so every team is going to have some extra flexibility.
Please comment on what trades you feel are possible and if the Kraken should re-sign or trade their existing UFA’s. If you missed part I, you can find it here.
Next project is to review the Kraken’s restricted free agents (RFA), so look for that in the coming weeks.
Most of my “Musings” do not come to me until the final Kraken game has been played for the week, so with a Sunday-night game against Toronto this week, I’m required to push the Monday Musings to Tuesday. For all of you who were refreshing your browser on Monday looking for these Musings, sorry, but “my process” is my process. (Foreshadowing: The Kraken have another Sunday game this coming week.)
Alright, the Kraken are streaking again!!! But, not in a good way. Seattle has now dropped four games since it won nine games in a row. Sickness, injuries, and now a suspension have made this stretch particularly challenging. To the credit of the players, I feel the effort was there in three of the four games, but the Kraken have zero points to show for it.
I talked about it on the Sound Of Hockey Podcast last week, but the high-end talent is abundantly obvious when they play against the likes of the New York Rangers, Edmonton Oilers, and Toronto Maple Leafs, and is obviously lacking for Seattle. That is not to say the Kraken cannot beat teams with high-end talent, but they need their traditional balanced approach with threats to score on all four lines. With Matty Beniers, Vince Dunn, and Yanni Gourde all out of the lineup, that balanced attack weakened.
Missing Vince Dunn
Dunn might be the most notable departure from the team right now. He had four goals and six assists over his last eight games and was on the ice for close to 50 percent of the Kraken’s power play time over that span. Dunn’s skill is another variable that a defensive unit needs to contend with, which might give opposing teams pause before playing aggressively during the Kraken power play.
The impact is that it opens other opportunities on the power play. Ryker Evans has been ok in backfilling for Dunn but will need a lot more time in the NHL before becoming a dynamic part of the Kraken power play.
Is it time to ignore face-off percentages?
After the Edmonton post-game broadcast, there was a little chatter about the Kraken’s struggles on the face-off dot. We have covered this before, but face-offs are not as meaningful as once considered. There are still a host of old-school believers in the importance of face-offs, which is why it gets discussed as a point of emphasis from time to time.
Let’s look at the Kraken’s face-off percentages this season and the outcomes by game.
It is easy to look at the last four games and point to the face-off percentages as proof that draws are important, but then look at the nine-game win streak. In only one of the nine games during the streak did the Kraken have a winning face-off percentage. Bottom line, there is certainly room for improvement in the face-off circle, but it is not the driving factor for the current string of losses.
Other Musings
There is no denying the Kraken have been struggling to score goals lately, but they are also struggling to get pucks on net. Sunday’s 17 shots versus the Toronto Maple Leafs ties a franchise record for the fewest shots on net in any game. The Kraken have now reached a franchise low of shots on net over a 10-game span.
The Kraken are also not drawing a lot of penalties right now. Only the San Jose Sharks have fewer power-play opportunities per game in January.
Based on historical records, I put the Kraken’s playoff chances at 22 percent. If they get six points out of a possible eight before the All-Star break, their chances jump to 32 percent. They increase to 40 percent if they manage eight out of eight.
I believe if this team can get and stay healthy for the rest of the season, they can make the playoffs and disrupt any opponent with their balanced lineup, just like last year. Health remains a big question mark, though.
Alex Wennberg played 14 minutes of Auston Matthews’ 21 minutes of time on ice Sunday. Wennberg’s contributions are appreciated.
I still think about the below play and wonder if it would have changed the outcome of the game against the Oilers.
Oh, that stinks. Joey Daccord makes an incredible stretch pass to Alex Wennberg, who scores, but Kailer Yamamoto was changing lines offside on the other side of the ice.
As much as I love Wennberg, it is hard to imagine he will re-sign with Seattle and is likely a trade candidate if the Kraken are out of the playoff picture come Trade Deadline. If Wennberg is traded, I expect Shane Wright to be called up and stick with the Kraken for the remainder of the season.
Andre Burakovsky still looks like he is struggling out there. He has one of the best shots on the team but has been off so far. He may need a few more games to settle back into his normal game.
Player performances
Jagger Firkus – Firkus continues to be incredible playing for the Moose Jaw Warriors. He had a hat trick on Friday against Swift Current and is averaging three points per game since returning from the IIHF World Junior Championship.
David Goyette – Another second-round selection for the Kraken has seven points over his last three games playing for the Sudbury Wolves in the OHL.
Oscar Fisker Mølgaard – A friend of the Sound Of Hockey pod and yet another second-round draft pick of the Seattle Kraken, Fisker Mølgaard has points in five straight games playing for HV71 in the top Swedish league. He has six points over those five games after notching just seven points in his prior 28 games. Oscar is still just 18 years old.
Remember how I said face-offs don’t matter? Well, one area I obsess on is the lack of face-off wins when killing a penalty. My logic is simple; if you win face-offs while killing a penalty in the defensive zone, you increase your chances to clear the puck and killing 15 to 20 seconds off the clock, thus limiting the number of shot attempts during the penalty kill.
AH HA! The data says the Seattle Kraken are the second worst at winning face-offs when killing penalties in the defensive zone. This confirms my eyes, correct? Well, sort of, but my logic might be flawed.
If my assertion is correct, a team’s penalty kill percentage should go up as its short-handed face-off win percentage in the defensive zone goes up. It would be illustrated in the graph with a trend line going from bottom left to upper right.
This visual says quite the opposite. My theory has holes, but it won’t stop me from pointing out that two of Edmonton’s goals last Thursday were after a Kraken defensive-zone face-off loss while Seattle was shorthanded.
Bottom line, there probably is some more research to be done here, but I am becoming more and more skeptical of face-offs as a meaningful stat. If only someone would have told me this before doing all this work.
Goal of the week
Whoa! That is a nasty goal by Jared McCann with 5:36 left.
Theoretically, this should be one of the easier four-game stretches on the schedule, as Seattle faces Chicago, St. Louis, Columbus, and San Jose before the All-Star break/bye week. However, Yanni Gourde still has one more game to sit out due to his suspension, and there is no ETA provided for the return of either Beniers or Dunn. It is critical that the team secures at least four points out of a possible eight, but the Kraken really should aim higher, given the level of competition they will face.
As always, I appreciate the feedback, discussion, and thoughts in the comments section, even if they go against observations in the post. If there are any questions or areas you would like me to explore, leave a comment and I will either respond or post in future articles.
The Kraken are inching closer to a major inflection point in their season, when their front office will need to decide which players with expiring (or soon to expire) contracts should be kept and which ones should be moved on to new teams. As Seattle has floundered over the past week, we’ve begun thinking again about what the team might do if it has to be a seller at the NHL Trade Deadline, which falls on March 8.
In this two-part series, we’re going to look at all the players on expiring contracts, focusing first on the older ones (over 30 years old) in Part I, then shifting in Part II to those under 30.
For Part I, we think it will be a useful exercise to go through each pending UFA, discuss what he brings to the Kraken, and consider if the team should re-sign the player or look to trade him if in a selling position.
Let us start with a definition for unrestricted free agent (UFA). A UFA is a player who is not under contract and is free to sign a deal with any NHL team. Players are considered UFA’s if they are 27 years of age or older or have played at least seven NHL seasons. UFA’s can only negotiate/re-sign with their current team during the season, but once free agency opens in the summer, they can sign anywhere. Talks with other NHL clubs can start after the NHL Draft on June 29, and players can officially sign with other clubs on July 1.
Possible trade returns
It is hard to get exact value of what a player will return in a trade. There are many factors that play into trades, such as team salary cap situation, player age, player performance, salary retainment, and contract term remaining. For this exercise, trades over the last three years were reviewed, and focus was put on trades for rental players that best matched the Kraken player’s position, age, and performance.
By the way, a “rental” is a player targeted in a trade whose contract is expiring at the end of the year. Barring a deal that is too good to pass up, we would only expect the Kraken to sell at the deadline if they are out of the playoff picture. If the team does end up selling, the third-year franchise will be looking to harvest draft picks to augment its prospect pipeline and and grab more chips to hopefully find some star power through the draft.
Notes on re-signing players
There are two main pieces to an NHL contract, average annual salary and term. As players move deeper into their careers, teams want shorter terms, whereas players want longer terms, as this could be their last NHL contract. We will compare some contracts that closely match the Kraken UFA’s performances and ages.
Kraken UFA players
The Seattle Kraken have seven players that will be UFA’s at the end of the season. After realizing it would take a really long article to review all seven players, we have decided to split it up into to two parts.
The players (separated by over/under 30 years old) are:
Jordan Eberle (Age 33) – Target: Re-sign for three years at $5 million AAV
Eberle came to the Kraken as the Expansion Draft pick from the New York Islanders. He is a top-six forward that has been on a 20-goal pace 10 out of his 11 seasons. This campaign is the first season he is off the 20-goal pace. He has played in 982 career games and is set to cross the 1000-game mark in mid-March.
As an alternate captain for his entire tenure with the Kraken, Eberle has played on the top line and provided mentorship to budding young star, Matty Beniers. Eberle is second in Kraken franchise history with 47 goals. Among Eberle’s offensive skill set is a wicked backhand and some smooth hands in tight spaces. His current contract comes with a $5.5M cap hit.
Trade return possibilities:
The following three trades were used for comparison (player name, age when traded):
Calle Jarnkrok (Age 30) – Seattle General manager Ron Francis was able to get a second-, third-, and seventh-round pick to Calgary in 2022.
Rickard Rakell (Age 28) – Pittsburgh sent a second-round pick, Zach Aston-Reese, and two AHL players to Anaheim in 2022.
Gustav Nyquist (Age 33) – Columbus fetched a fifth-round pick from Minnesota in 2023.
In all of the trades above, salary was retained, which the Kraken have the flexibility to do as well. Eberle’s possible trade range could be as low as a fifth-round pick or as high as multiple picks topping out at a second-rounder.
At the time of his trade, Nyquist was injured, but had been scoring at the same clip as Eberle, which does not bode well. Jarnkrok was scoring above his career average at the time of his trade from Seattle to Calgary and returned a bounty of picks. Eberle does have a 16-team no-trade list as part of the modified no-trade clause (M-NTC) in his contract.
The good news is GM Ron Francis swung a solid return in the Jarnkrok deal, so hopefully he can push for a return matching the Boi Boi Calle trade. Expect a deal to include at least a second-round pick plus additional picks or prospects.
What it would take to re-sign Eberle?
David Perron signed a two-year, $9.5M contract as a UFA just after his 33-year-old season. Perron scores just a hair under Eberle, but matches him in leadership, playing time, and power-play experience. Another player contract we could compare to is the Kraken’s own Tomas Tatar, but we will be talking more about him later.
Eberle is on the back nine of his career. If the Kraken want him back, they would likely be targeting a one- or two-year deal, similar to Perron’s, and we would imagine the Eberle camp pushing for a third or fourth year.
The winger is trending on a ~40-point pace, and if that continues, a pay cut could be in his future. On the other hand, if he returns to form and has a stellar second half of the season, a contract in his current range is likely. It should be noted that scoring is down for the Kraken as a whole, so Eberle’s point totals could be a result of a more defensive game plan.
The former first-round pick does bring power-play abilities and leadership to the group. If he re-signs with the Kraken, which he has said publicly he wants to do, we predict a two- or three-year deal in the $4.5-$5.5M range for Eberle to finish his career with the Kraken.
Justin Schultz (Age 33) – Target: Trade for second-round pick
Schultz joined the Kraken as a free agent, signing a two-year $6M deal with a 10-team M-NTC before the 2022-23 season.
With Ryker Evans knocking on the door, we believe Schultz is the most likely defenseman to not be with the Kraken next year. That takes re-signing him off the table, so we will focus on trade return.
Schultz runs the second power-play unit and has settled into a third defense pairing with his previous Pittsburgh Penguins teammate Brian Dumoulin.
Comparable trades (player name, age when traded):
Ben Chiarot (Age 30) – Florida really wanted Chiarot and paid first- and fourth-round picks, plus an AHL player to Montreal in 2022.
Mark Giordano (Age 38) – The first ever and only Seattle Kraken captain returned two second-round picks plus a third-round pick to Toronto in 2022. It should be noted Colin Blackwell was included in this deal with the Maple Leafs as well.
Brett Kulak (Age 28) – Edmonton traded second- and seventh-round picks, plus NHL player William Lagesson to Montreal in 2022.
Schultz is definitely a valuable depth defenseman with offensive prowess that a team making a playoff run will covet. A second-round pick is probably the highest pick the Kraken can get, but an additional lower-round pick (or two) could be thrown in. Targeting a trade like Kulak’s is conceivable. Looking a bit at Giordano’s trade, which is a package deal, could be something Francis would explore as well.
Tomas Tatar (Age 33) – Target: Trade for second-round pick
Tatar went from making $4.5M last season to signing a team-friendly deal with the Colorado Avalanche, only to get buried on the fourth line and eventually traded to the Kraken for a fifth-round pick.
Now playing on the Kraken’s top line at $1.5M, Tatar has been a steal. The Kraken could look to re-sign Tatar in the $2.5-$3.5M range on a short one-to-two-year contract. The big question is, will Tatar want to stay or go to a team favored to win the Stanley Cup?
Since joining the Kraken, the player affectionately known as “Tuna” has rejuvenated his offense. The comparable trades for Tatar are the same as the trades for Eberle. Tatar has averaged 45-50 points a season over his career and could return almost as much value as Eberle, since he is on a cheaper contract, helpful for teams that are cap constrained. A first-round pick is still out of the question, but a second is definitely feasible.
Being that the Kraken only traded a fifth-round pick to acquire Tatar, trading him could end up being a quick return on investment.
Pierre-Edouard Bellemare (Age 38) – Target: Trade for fourth-round pick
The veteran center signed with the Kraken for one year at the league minimum, $775K. Bellemare offers defense, including penalty-killing time, and above 50 percent in the face-off dot. There are only three players in the NHL that are 39 or over, so he is definitely reaching the end of his career, but Bellemare has played effectively this season.
With his current cap hit, we could see extending Bellemare’s deal for one more year. He is currently on injured reserve but is a depth center with NHL playoff experience when healthy.
We found one comparable trade (player name, age when traded):
Derick Brassard (Age 34) – Edmonton traded a fourth-round pick to Philadelphia in 2022.
A reasonable return could be a third- to fifth-round pick due to Bellemare’s penalty-killing expertise. He is also a possible thrown-in player added to a package deal that could upgrade a trade for the Kraken.
Overall
Trades are hard to predict, and we don’t see the Kraken pulling the trigger as long as they have a path to the playoffs. One aspect of trades we did not dig into much is package deals. Francis has experience with this type of trade, bundling Blackwell with Giordano to get an extra second-round pick in the inaugural season.
For any of the Kraken UFA’s, it would be a stretch to get a first-round pick as part of the return, but packaging up two players could be enough to push a first-round pick into the conversation.
A past package deal that is of interest:
Kyle Palmieri and Travis Zajac – These New Jersey Devils were traded as a package to the New York Islanders for first-, fourth-round picks, and two AHL prospects in 2021.
Please comment on what trades you feel are possible and if the team should re-sign or trade its pending UFAs. Part II can be found here.
As the first period of the 2024 Winter Classic wound down, Kraken fans everywhere were content–basking in rays of sunshine on a beautiful day for outdoor hockey and awash in the afterglow of Eeli Tolvanen’s go-ahead deflection goal that made it 1-0.
With two minutes left on the clock in the opening frame, Brian Dumoulin possessed the puck along the boards in the defensive zone on a low-leverage sequence. Then, in an instant, the game hung in the balance.
The Vegas forecheck pressured Dumoulin, and he attempted an ill-advised backhand centering pass that landed on the stick of Golden Knights forward Jack Eichel. Nothing but open ice separated the Vegas star player from Kraken goaltender Joey Daccord.
It seemed like Eichel had all day to set up his move, and Kraken fans everywhere held their breath. A late-period goal could shift the momentum in favor of the reigning Stanley Cup champs.
But Daccord met that moment, turning away Eichel’s shot. 47,000 fans in attendance roared with approval, and “Jo-ey! Jo-ey!” chants washed over T-Mobile Park. Daccord went on to deny all 35 Vegas shots that day en route to the first ever Winter Classic shutout.
The Seattle Kraken have points in 13 straight games since Dec. 12, and Daccord’s goaltending has been paramount during that run. Daccord has started 12 of 13 games in Seattle’s current point streak, posting a sterling .950 save percentage in that stretch. His 158-minute shutout streak around the Winter Classic is the longest in the league this season, per Scott Malone of ROOT Sports.
Overall, Daccord has a .923 save percentage, which is tied for fifth best in the league among goalies with more than 10 starts. Expected goals metrics rate Daccord somewhere between above average (MoneyPuck) and excellent (NaturalStatTrick, Evolving Hockey) at preventing opposing shots from becoming goals.
Either way, Daccord’s work between the pipes has been impressive of late. It is likely the single most important reason the Kraken are back in contention for a playoff spot.
But that’s not really what this article is about.
A Curious Discovery
In the first part of this two-post series, I outlined a curious discovery: In virtually every gameplay situation, the Seattle Kraken generate better shot quality offensively and significantly suppress opponent shot quality defensively when Daccord is on the ice relative to when another goalie is playing. Displayed visually, Seattle’s shot frequency charts with Daccord on the ice are uniformly stronger than when he is off the ice.
In my first post, I considered a number of potential explanations for this observation and landed on a working theory that Daccord’s active goaltending style may at least partially explain the observed shot quality disparity.
The Project: Tracking Daccord’s aggressive puck play
That said, I wasn’t convinced that goalie puck play could have such a significant impact on overall shot quality outcomes. So, I embarked on a project spanning the last month-plus, tracking Daccord’s activity outside the goal crease.
I manually tracked Daccord’s puck-moving play beginning with the Nov. 22 home game against San Jose and continuing through Daccord’s Jan. 4 start against Ottawa. (Unfortunately, I don’t have video going back to the beginning of this period to match up with my notes because ESPN+ has decided to remove this season’s games from its archives after about 30 days. This is frustrating, and consider this an official, bonus Festivus grievance.)
Based on my tracking, Daccord averaged more than four puck handling plays per game that resulted in a significant advantage at preventing opponent shots or promoting Kraken shots beyond what I would “expect” from a goalie. Generally speaking, these plays fell into one of three categories.
Breaking the forecheck
Most frequently in my sample (averaging three-plus instances per game), Daccord aggressively took control of opposing dump-in entries. Rather than stopping the puck behind the net or taking an easy pass to a support defender below the goal line, as Grubauer often does, Daccord would take possession and look for an active pass up ice. Sometimes he passed directly out of the defensive zone. On other occasions, he advanced it quickly within the zone away from the forechecking pressure. Either way, the quick puck movement consistently broke the forecheck before it could even start.
If opposing offenses recover and establish offensive-zone pressure almost 40 percent of uncontrolled entries, Daccord himself may be responsible for repelling one or more offensive-zone sequences each game more than “expected.” And even this may sell this value short because it does not give him credit for facilitating a controlled zone exit into transition offense (which we will discuss in a moment).
When asked about Vegas’s failure to establish a forecheck during the Winter Classic, Golden Knights coach Bruce Cassidy began his answer by calling out Daccord’s puck play. “[Daccord] handles pucks well, so that helps [Seattle] be more effective and efficient in [combatting the forecheck].” Cassidy said that puts pressure on the opposition to “put pucks into better areas,” referring to the corners where the goalie is not allowed to touch the puck.
“As far as breaking the pucks out, [Daccord’s activity] makes it a lot easier as a D-man sometimes, if you’re not able to do it as two people back there,” defenseman Vince Dunn said. “Having [Daccord] as a third option for us, it makes it a lot easier and quicker.”
Defenseman Justin Schultz was even more effusive to Kate Shefte of The Seattle Times:“[Daccord is] so talented back there with the puck. I don’t think I’ve ever had a goalie that plays the puck that well. It’s like a third defenseman back there. You just try to get open for him–you know he’s going to make a play.”
This work is most notable in 5-on-5 play but also shows up at key moments on the penalty kill, including this crucial sequence in the first period of the Dec. 29, home game against Philadelphia.
Then, there was an even more memorable backhanded play in the Jan. 4 game against Ottawa.
“As I was making that play, I was like, ‘I really hope this gets out, because if not, I’m going to be in trouble,’” Daccord said that night. “I’ve worked on my stick handling and puck skills a lot over the years, and backhand is definitely way harder than forehand, so happy I got enough wood on it to get it out.”
Added Kraken coach Dave Hakstol, “That was a heck of a play. There are certain plays that have some risk to them. That’s just great skill and the right play at the right time. That was a big clear at that time.”
Since breaking the zone is the most important thing a penalty killer can do, this active puck play may shed some light on the shot quality disparity with Daccord on the ice versus Philipp Grubauer or Chris Driedger observed in the penalty kill chart above. In the Philadelphia example, Daccord’s clear allowed Seattle to change and cost the Flyers more than 20 seconds off the clock before they re-established in the offensive zone.
Active stick and glove in the high-danger areas
Another skill Daccord brings to the table is extreme activity with his stick and glove in and around the blue paint. His mentality seems to be “attack first.” If he sees a loose or contested puck near the net he is quick cover it with his glove or swipe it away with the stick.
The data analysts at MoneyPuck have utilized shot data to generate an “expected freezes” model for goalies. A “freeze” is a stoppage of play caused by a player (usually a goalie) who stops and holds onto the puck. MoneyPuck‘s model tracks the “number of times you’d expect an average goalie to freeze the puck given the shots the goalie has faced.”
Daccord’s play style almost breaks the MoneyPuck model. Through 27 games, Daccord had 19 freezes above expected. The next closest goalie has just nine freezes above expected.
Based on my tracking, this is not because Daccord is hanging onto more shots than he should. On the contrary, I noted him aggressively avoiding freezes on certain shot types I would have expected another goalie to freeze. My theory is that this MoneyPuck data reflects Daccord seizing pucks in the high-danger areas that few other goaltenders would attempt to reach and freeze. (By way of comparison, Grubauer had -30.08 freezes above expected through his 17 games this season.)
In Daccord’s case, my observation is that he is more often using a “freeze” aggressively to mitigate a chaotic, high-danger sequence, which should be an advantage. If this is, in fact, an intentional strategy Daccord is deploying, he is following an approach described in detail by Daccord’s goalie coach father, Brian Daccord, to Fluto Shinzawa of the The Athletic:
What [Brian] Daccord discovered was that in large data sets, freeze rate was an even more accurate reflection of goalie performance than goal expectancy. But although services like Sportlogiq and Clear Sight Analytics track freeze rate, it is not a widely known or used metric.
. . .
A goalie with a high freeze rate, by comparison, is putting himself and his team in more advantageous positions. A faceoff is a 50-50 battle that allows a coach to change players and devise plays.
. . .
[Brian] Daccord anticipates a progression of top goalies steering rebounds to teammates as well as freezing them. For example, a goalie might identify a 3-on-2 rush and see an opportunity for a counterattack. That goalie may punch the puck aggressively beyond the first wave of attackers and onto a teammate’s stick.
“It’s like a chess player thinking three moves out,” Daccord said. “It’s, ‘OK, if I put this puck over to the top of the circle on the other side, we’re going the other way. If I leave this puck within five feet of me, I’ve got three guys on me. If I get the puck 15 feet away from me, we’re going the other way and get everybody trapped.’”
I don’t want to over-emphasize this “freeze rate” statistic because the stat is highly situation specific. There are strategically good and bad freezes, but the approach feels intentional and consistent with Brian Daccord’s philosophy. This will be interesting to track moving forward–even if, in my viewings, it is not as significant a driver of shot quality as Daccord’s puck-moving play described above.
Perhaps even more active than Daccord’s glove is his stick. He frequently uses a poke check to disrupt plays around the net and thwart one-on-one breakaways. This is not a “unique” skill, but he has been effective with it. I had him averaging one disruption of a potential high-danger chance per game with these attacking moves that I characterized as “unlikely” for Grubauer to attempt.
This work doesn’t count towards Daccord’s save percentage or goals saved above expected because he is preventing the shot entirely.
Offensive-minded passing
Finally, Daccord consistently brings an offensive mindset. He is constantly scanning the play so that when the puck hits his stick he knows whether he has an opportunity to create transition offense. Almost once per game, I noted Daccord as directly responsible for creating controlled transition and an offensive chance. Typically, this was by using a stretch pass to an available forward’s stick up ice.
Daccord is particularly aggressive in creating advantages when the Kraken are the on the power play. Daccord will, at times, quickly advance the puck when opposing penalty killers are changing and anticipating a conventional reset.
This work may shed some light on the seemingly counterintuitive finding that the Kraken are able to generate more offense on the power play when Daccord is on the ice reflected in the power play charts above. It is also consistent with the vision for modern goaltending described by Brian Daccord to The Athletic.
Mistake goals will inevitably follow aggressive play
Daccord plays on his toes. He meets every rush at the top of (or above) the blue paint. And he is always calculating if he can take the puck away from the forecheck. This seems to create some shot quality advantages, as laid out above.
That said, playing aggressively comes with risks–and these risks were notable on tape. If Daccord misreads the forechecking pressure, mishandles the puck for a split second, miscommunicates with one of his teammates, or ices the puck when a simpler play was available, his aggressive play can hurt the team.
Adam Larsson laid out both sides of the equation to The Seattle Times. “He’s one of the best I’ve seen [handling the puck], and I think once we move forward and get the connection better with the ‘D,’ the timing better, it’s going to be even more helpful.” That said, “[S]ometimes when you’re too active out of the net, it can cost you a goal.”
That showed up on tape too, with a few notable examples that Kraken fans no doubt recall.
In re-watching all 60 goals Daccord has allowed this season, I noted five goals where Daccord was left incapable of saving the shot due to a mistake that would not have happened but for Daccord’s aggressive play.
This may be a partial explanation for Daccord’s struggles at saving what game logs record as “high-danger chances.” NHL Edge has Daccord among the worst in the league in high-danger save percentage at .760.
These five goals against are important to keep in mind as the “cost” of Daccord’s play style (even if a few of them were not entirely his fault). Comparing this “cost” against the observed play-driving advantages, Daccord’s aggressiveness still seems like a beneficial trade-off for the team right now.
HockeyViz has the Kraken’s all situations shot quality at +9.9 expected goals better with Daccord on the ice relative to the other goaltenders. That said, if the shot quality benefits start to diminish, our final judgment on Daccord’s play style may need to change.
Takeaways on Daccord and the “active goaltender”
After roster cuts, we talked on The Sound of Hockey Podcast about how Daccord’s active play style contrasted with Grubauer’s stay-at-home approach. We debated whether the team would strive to harmonize the approach of the two goalies–for the benefit of the defensive scheme and structure–or allow each to play to their strengths. As we near the midway point of the season, it has become clear that, within certain limits, the Kraken have encouraged the goaltenders to “play their game” even if that means the defensemen need to be mindful of which goalie is in the net.
This has been the right call. Again, I don’t want to over-promise on the working theory I’ve laid out in these two posts. But, based on the data available so far, it appears that Daccord’s aggressive play style comes with a significant strategic advantage in terms of suppressing opponent shot quality and creating additional Kraken shots.
It is possible some or most of the observed shot disparity could be attributed to other factors. It is also possible that it is mostly “noise” in the data. But for the reasons described in my first post, I have reasonable confidence that Daccord’s contributions to shot quality outcomes have not yet been properly measured in public sources.
The Kraken are on a 13-game point streak at the moment. The most important factor in that stretch has been Daccord’s play in net, clearly.
Is it possible that Daccord’s puck play venturing outside the blue paint is the second most important ingredient in the team’s recent success? We need to continue to watch it and collect necessary data. But, right now, I’d say yes.
There’s one important caveat: even if we assume Daccord’s play-driving impact is real, it may not be fully sustainable moving forward. The league may adjust to mitigate Daccord’s strengths by (1) decreasing reliance on dump-in entries, and (2) favoring soft lob entries into the corners when a dump-in is necessary. Cassidy referred to this after the Winter Classic. This chess game is worth watching.
For now, the numbers suggest to me that the Kraken may have a subtle but important strategic asset in Joey Daccord, the play-driving goalie.
Curtis Isacke
Curtis is a Sound Of Hockey contributor and member of the Kraken press corps. Curtis is an attorney by day, and he has read the NHL collective bargaining agreement and bylaws so you don’t have to. He can be found analyzing the Kraken, NHL Draft, and other hockey topics on Twitter and Bluesky @deepseahockey.
