More on Joey Daccord – Seattle’s playmaking goaltender

by Curtis Isacke | Jan 15, 2024 | Kraken

As the first period of the 2024 Winter Classic wound down, Kraken fans everywhere were content–basking in rays of sunshine on a beautiful day for outdoor hockey and awash in the afterglow of Eeli Tolvanen’s go-ahead deflection goal that made it 1-0.

With two minutes left on the clock in the opening frame, Brian Dumoulin possessed the puck along the boards in the defensive zone on a low-leverage sequence. Then, in an instant, the game hung in the balance. 

The Vegas forecheck pressured Dumoulin, and he attempted an ill-advised backhand centering pass that landed on the stick of Golden Knights forward Jack Eichel. Nothing but open ice separated the Vegas star player from Kraken goaltender Joey Daccord. 

It seemed like Eichel had all day to set up his move, and Kraken fans everywhere held their breath. A late-period goal could shift the momentum in favor of the reigning Stanley Cup champs.

But Daccord met that moment, turning away Eichel’s shot. 47,000 fans in attendance roared with approval, and “Jo-ey! Jo-ey!” chants washed over T-Mobile Park. Daccord went on to deny all 35 Vegas shots that day en route to the first ever Winter Classic shutout.

The Seattle Kraken have points in 13 straight games since Dec. 12, and Daccord’s goaltending has been paramount during that run. Daccord has started 12 of 13 games in Seattle’s current point streak, posting a sterling .950 save percentage in that stretch. His 158-minute shutout streak around the Winter Classic is the longest in the league this season, per Scott Malone of ROOT Sports.

Overall, Daccord has a .923 save percentage, which is tied for fifth best in the league among goalies with more than 10 starts. Expected goals metrics rate Daccord somewhere between above average (MoneyPuck) and excellent (NaturalStatTrick, Evolving Hockey) at preventing opposing shots from becoming goals. 

Either way, Daccord’s work between the pipes has been impressive of late. It is likely the single most important reason the Kraken are back in contention for a playoff spot. 

But that’s not really what this article is about.

A Curious Discovery

In the first part of this two-post series, I outlined a curious discovery: In virtually every gameplay situation, the Seattle Kraken generate better shot quality offensively and significantly suppress opponent shot quality defensively when Daccord is on the ice relative to when another goalie is playing. Displayed visually, Seattle’s shot frequency charts with Daccord on the ice are uniformly stronger than when he is off the ice.

In my first post, I considered a number of potential explanations for this observation and landed on a working theory that Daccord’s active goaltending style may at least partially explain the observed shot quality disparity.

The Project: Tracking Daccord’s aggressive puck play

That said, I wasn’t convinced that goalie puck play could have such a significant impact on overall shot quality outcomes. So, I embarked on a project spanning the last month-plus, tracking Daccord’s activity outside the goal crease.

I manually tracked Daccord’s puck-moving play beginning with the Nov. 22 home game against San Jose and continuing through Daccord’s Jan. 4 start against Ottawa. (Unfortunately, I don’t have video going back to the beginning of this period to match up with my notes because ESPN+ has decided to remove this season’s games from its archives after about 30 days. This is frustrating, and consider this an official, bonus Festivus grievance.) 

Based on my tracking, Daccord averaged more than four puck handling plays per game that resulted in a significant advantage at preventing opponent shots or promoting Kraken shots beyond what I would “expect” from a goalie. Generally speaking, these plays fell into one of three categories.

Breaking the forecheck

Most frequently in my sample (averaging three-plus instances per game), Daccord aggressively took control of opposing dump-in entries. Rather than stopping the puck behind the net or taking an easy pass to a support defender below the goal line, as Grubauer often does, Daccord would take possession and look for an active pass up ice. Sometimes he passed directly out of the defensive zone. On other occasions, he advanced it quickly within the zone away from the forechecking pressure. Either way, the quick puck movement consistently broke the forecheck before it could even start.

If opposing offenses recover and establish offensive-zone pressure almost 40 percent of uncontrolled entries, Daccord himself may be responsible for repelling one or more offensive-zone sequences each game more than “expected.” And even this may sell this value short because it does not give him credit for facilitating a controlled zone exit into transition offense (which we will discuss in a moment).

When asked about Vegas’s failure to establish a forecheck during the Winter Classic, Golden Knights coach Bruce Cassidy began his answer by calling out Daccord’s puck play. “[Daccord] handles pucks well, so that helps [Seattle] be more effective and efficient in [combatting the forecheck].” Cassidy said that puts pressure on the opposition to “put pucks into better areas,” referring to the corners where the goalie is not allowed to touch the puck. 

“As far as breaking the pucks out, [Daccord’s activity] makes it a lot easier as a D-man sometimes, if you’re not able to do it as two people back there,” defenseman Vince Dunn said. “Having [Daccord] as a third option for us, it makes it a lot easier and quicker.”

Defenseman Justin Schultz was even more effusive to Kate Shefte of The Seattle Times: “[Daccord is] so talented back there with the puck. I don’t think I’ve ever had a goalie that plays the puck that well. It’s like a third defenseman back there. You just try to get open for him–you know he’s going to make a play.”

This work is most notable in 5-on-5 play but also shows up at key moments on the penalty kill, including this crucial sequence in the first period of the Dec. 29, home game against Philadelphia.

Then, there was an even more memorable backhanded play in the Jan. 4 game against Ottawa.

“As I was making that play, I was like, ‘I really hope this gets out, because if not, I’m going to be in trouble,’” Daccord said that night. “I’ve worked on my stick handling and puck skills a lot over the years, and backhand is definitely way harder than forehand, so happy I got enough wood on it to get it out.” 

Added Kraken coach Dave Hakstol, “That was a heck of a play. There are certain plays that have some risk to them. That’s just great skill and the right play at the right time. That was a big clear at that time.”

Since breaking the zone is the most important thing a penalty killer can do, this active puck play may shed some light on the shot quality disparity with Daccord on the ice versus Philipp Grubauer or Chris Driedger observed in the penalty kill chart above. In the Philadelphia example, Daccord’s clear allowed Seattle to change and cost the Flyers more than 20 seconds off the clock before they re-established in the offensive zone.

Active stick and glove in the high-danger areas

Another skill Daccord brings to the table is extreme activity with his stick and glove in and around the blue paint. His mentality seems to be “attack first.” If he sees a loose or contested puck near the net he is quick cover it with his glove or swipe it away with the stick.

The data analysts at MoneyPuck have utilized shot data to generate an “expected freezes” model for goalies. A “freeze” is a stoppage of play caused by a player (usually a goalie) who stops and holds onto the puck. MoneyPuck‘s model tracks the “number of times you’d expect an average goalie to freeze the puck given the shots the goalie has faced.”

Daccord’s play style almost breaks the MoneyPuck model. Through 27 games, Daccord had 19 freezes above expected. The next closest goalie has just nine freezes above expected.

Based on my tracking, this is not because Daccord is hanging onto more shots than he should. On the contrary, I noted him aggressively avoiding freezes on certain shot types I would have expected another goalie to freeze. My theory is that this MoneyPuck data reflects Daccord seizing pucks in the high-danger areas that few other goaltenders would attempt to reach and freeze. (By way of comparison, Grubauer had -30.08 freezes above expected through his 17 games this season.)

In Daccord’s case, my observation is that he is more often using a “freeze” aggressively to mitigate a chaotic, high-danger sequence, which should be an advantage. If this is, in fact, an intentional strategy Daccord is deploying, he is following an approach described in detail by Daccord’s goalie coach father, Brian Daccord, to Fluto Shinzawa of the The Athletic:

What [Brian] Daccord discovered was that in large data sets, freeze rate was an even more accurate reflection of goalie performance than goal expectancy. But although services like Sportlogiq and Clear Sight Analytics track freeze rate, it is not a widely known or used metric.

. . .

A goalie with a high freeze rate, by comparison, is putting himself and his team in more advantageous positions. A faceoff is a 50-50 battle that allows a coach to change players and devise plays.

. . .

[Brian] Daccord anticipates a progression of top goalies steering rebounds to teammates as well as freezing them. For example, a goalie might identify a 3-on-2 rush and see an opportunity for a counterattack. That goalie may punch the puck aggressively beyond the first wave of attackers and onto a teammate’s stick.

“It’s like a chess player thinking three moves out,” Daccord said. “It’s, ‘OK, if I put this puck over to the top of the circle on the other side, we’re going the other way. If I leave this puck within five feet of me, I’ve got three guys on me. If I get the puck 15 feet away from me, we’re going the other way and get everybody trapped.’”

Fluto Shinzawa, How a new way of tracking ‘freeze rate’ could help unlock NHL goalie analytics: ‘That number will tell you everything, The Athletic

I don’t want to over-emphasize this “freeze rate” statistic because the stat is highly situation specific. There are strategically good and bad freezes, but the approach feels intentional and consistent with Brian Daccord’s philosophy. This will be interesting to track moving forward–even if, in my viewings, it is not as significant a driver of shot quality as Daccord’s puck-moving play described above.

Perhaps even more active than Daccord’s glove is his stick. He frequently uses a poke check to disrupt plays around the net and thwart one-on-one breakaways. This is not a “unique” skill, but he has been effective with it. I had him averaging one disruption of a potential high-danger chance per game with these attacking moves that I characterized as “unlikely” for Grubauer to attempt. 

This work doesn’t count towards Daccord’s save percentage or goals saved above expected because he is preventing the shot entirely. 

Offensive-minded passing

Finally, Daccord consistently brings an offensive mindset. He is constantly scanning the play so that when the puck hits his stick he knows whether he has an opportunity to create transition offense. Almost once per game, I noted Daccord as directly responsible for creating controlled transition and an offensive chance. Typically, this was by using a stretch pass to an available forward’s stick up ice. 

Daccord is particularly aggressive in creating advantages when the Kraken are the on the power play. Daccord will, at times, quickly advance the puck when opposing penalty killers are changing and anticipating a conventional reset.

This work may shed some light on the seemingly counterintuitive finding that the Kraken are able to generate more offense on the power play when Daccord is on the ice reflected in the power play charts above. It is also consistent with the vision for modern goaltending described by Brian Daccord to The Athletic.

Mistake goals will inevitably follow aggressive play

Daccord plays on his toes. He meets every rush at the top of (or above) the blue paint. And he is always calculating if he can take the puck away from the forecheck. This seems to create some shot quality advantages, as laid out above.

That said, playing aggressively comes with risks–and these risks were notable on tape. If Daccord misreads the forechecking pressure, mishandles the puck for a split second, miscommunicates with one of his teammates, or ices the puck when a simpler play was available, his aggressive play can hurt the team.

Adam Larsson laid out both sides of the equation to The Seattle Times. “He’s one of the best I’ve seen [handling the puck], and I think once we move forward and get the connection better with the ‘D,’ the timing better, it’s going to be even more helpful.” That said, “[S]ometimes when you’re too active out of the net, it can cost you a goal.” 

That showed up on tape too, with a few notable examples that Kraken fans no doubt recall.

In re-watching all 60 goals Daccord has allowed this season, I noted five goals where Daccord was left incapable of saving the shot due to a mistake that would not have happened but for Daccord’s aggressive play. 

This may be a partial explanation for Daccord’s struggles at saving what game logs record as “high-danger chances.” NHL Edge has Daccord among the worst in the league in high-danger save percentage at .760. 

These five goals against are important to keep in mind as the “cost” of Daccord’s play style (even if a few of them were not entirely his fault). Comparing this “cost” against the observed play-driving advantages, Daccord’s aggressiveness still seems like a beneficial trade-off for the team right now.

HockeyViz has the Kraken’s all situations shot quality at +9.9 expected goals better with Daccord on the ice relative to the other goaltenders. That said, if the shot quality benefits start to diminish, our final judgment on Daccord’s play style may need to change.

Takeaways on Daccord and the “active goaltender”

After roster cuts, we talked on The Sound of Hockey Podcast about how Daccord’s active play style contrasted with Grubauer’s stay-at-home approach. We debated whether the team would strive to harmonize the approach of the two goalies–for the benefit of the defensive scheme and structure–or allow each to play to their strengths. As we near the midway point of the season, it has become clear that, within certain limits, the Kraken have encouraged the goaltenders to “play their game” even if that means the defensemen need to be mindful of which goalie is in the net.

This has been the right call. Again, I don’t want to over-promise on the working theory I’ve laid out in these two posts. But, based on the data available so far, it appears that Daccord’s aggressive play style comes with a significant strategic advantage in terms of suppressing opponent shot quality and creating additional Kraken shots.

It is possible some or most of the observed shot disparity could be attributed to other factors. It is also possible that it is mostly “noise” in the data. But for the reasons described in my first post, I have reasonable confidence that Daccord’s contributions to shot quality outcomes have not yet been properly measured in public sources.

The Kraken are on a 13-game point streak at the moment. The most important factor in that stretch has been Daccord’s play in net, clearly. 

Is it possible that Daccord’s puck play venturing outside the blue paint is the second most important ingredient in the team’s recent success? We need to continue to watch it and collect necessary data. But, right now, I’d say yes.

There’s one important caveat: even if we assume Daccord’s play-driving impact is real, it may not be fully sustainable moving forward. The league may adjust to mitigate Daccord’s strengths by (1) decreasing reliance on dump-in entries, and (2) favoring soft lob entries into the corners when a dump-in is necessary. Cassidy referred to this after the Winter Classic. This chess game is worth watching.

For now, the numbers suggest to me that the Kraken may have a subtle but important strategic asset in Joey Daccord, the play-driving goalie.

Curtis Isacke

Curtis is a Sound Of Hockey contributor and member of the Kraken press corps. Curtis is an attorney by day, and he has read the NHL collective bargaining agreement and bylaws so you don’t have to. He can be found analyzing the Kraken, NHL Draft, and other hockey topics on Twitter and Bluesky @deepseahockey.

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The curious case of Joey Daccord and Kraken shot quality when he is in goal

by Curtis Isacke | Jan 11, 2024 | Kraken

One late-November afternoon, I was perusing HockeyViz–as I am wont to do. I almost always come away having learned something new about a player, a team, or how NHL hockey is played, and that is what happened on that day.

Parsing through Joey Daccord’s data, I found that in virtually every gameplay situation, the Seattle Kraken generate better shot quality offensively and significantly suppress opponent shot quality defensively when Daccord is on the ice, relative to when another goalie is playing.

This type of finding is not atypical for a skater. We would say that skater plays a “two-way game,” showing effective defense to prevent dangerous shots against and offense to generate those types of shots. HockeyViz credits Jared McCann, for example, for value-generating play driving in all situations–even-strength offense, even-strength defense, power-play offense, and penalty-kill defense. It’s easy enough to understand how this would be the case.

But a goalie’s job is to save shots on goal. We have conventionally measured the goalie’s worth via the save percentage stat, i.e., what percentage of shots on goal the netminder turns away. Goalies who save a higher percentage of the shots they face are the “good” ones.

More recently, we in the hockey community have increasingly utilized metrics developed by various outlets commonly called “goals saved above expected.” These metrics incorporate data on shot location and shot type faced by a goalie to estimate how many goals an average goaltender would be expected to concede based on the shot quality against. This expected outcome can then be compared against the goalie’s actual performance. Goalies who save more shots than expected are the “good” ones.

Either way, the focus is always on what a goalie does with shots faced. This is because a goalie can’t be asked to prevent those shots in the first place. That’s the skaters’ role, and it’s certainly not the netminder’s job to create offense on the opposing goalie. Right? Or is it?

The finding that the Kraken create better offensive chances and suppress chances against more effectively when Daccord is in goal has held consistent over the last few weeks since I began tracking it. 

For example, let’s look at shots the Kraken have given up at five-on-five in the first 39 games of the season (through the Jan. 4 game against Ottawa). Areas of the ice where the Kraken give up fewer shots than average (good) are represented in progressively darker shades of blue. Represented in red are areas where the Kraken give up more shots than average (maybe bad, but shots from the perimeter can be ok).

In Joey Daccord’s five-on-five time on the ice through Jan. 4 (1119 minutes of game play), the Kraken allowed opponents shots valued at 15 percent lower than league average according to HockeyViz. This is very good. When Daccord is not on the ice five-on-five (774 minutes of game play), the Kraken have allowed shots valued at nine percent lower than league average. This is still good, but significantly less so. 

Now, let’s look at the shots the Kraken have generated five-on-five. Areas where the team generates more shots than average are in red (good), whereas areas of fewer than average shots are in blue (bad).

Again, the Kraken results have been better in Daccord’s minutes. The team has generated better quality chances, valued at just two percent below average when Daccord is in net, versus eight percent below average when Daccord is not in goal.

If we dig into the numbers in other personnel situations–which we will–we find a similar disparity. 

Is it possible that there is a causal relationship here? Could Daccord really be responsible for a material change in the gameplay around him? Inspired by a number of related questions about randomness, sample size, causation, how we use advanced shot metrics to measure the value of goalies, and how Joey Daccord plays the position, I set out to investigate. 

I came up with six potential explanations that I believed could explain some or all of the observed shot quality disparities.

1. Quality of competition
2. Quality of teammates
3. Score effects
4. Change in Kraken skater performance independent of Daccord’s play
5. Randomness/small sample size/noise
6. Joey Daccord is directly affecting Kraken shot quality

After working through these possibilities, I have settled on a working theory that I will outline here and parse in greater depth in a follow-up article at a later date. Let’s dive in.

Quality of competition

If Daccord has faced a weaker schedule of offensive and defensive competition than the other goaltenders, this could explain some or all of the observed shot quality disparity. 

Consider a scenario where Philipp Grubauer has started one game against the 2023-24 Vegas Golden Knights, and Daccord has started one game against the 2023-24 Chicago Blackhawks. Kraken shot quality may be much stronger in Daccord’s start, but this could just be about the strength of the competition.

I used Evolving Hockey’s game log tool to determine the relative strength of opposing offenses and defenses faced by Daccord and by Grubauer/Driedger based on Evolving Hockey’s expected goals models. Where both goaltenders played in a game (e.g. Grubauer played two periods only to be replaced by Daccord for the third period), I was able to apportion the game based on each goalie’s time on ice. 

I found that the opposing offenses faced by Daccord as opposed to Grubauer/Driedger where roughly similar, but the Kraken were far more effective suppressing shot quality in Daccord’s starts. On the other hand, the opposing defenses Daccord has faced have been stronger than those matched up against Grubauer/Driedger. Even so, as we saw above, the Kraken were more effective generating shot quality in Daccord’s starts.

Daccord has faced opposing offenses that have averaged 3.25 expected goals per game for the season. Yet, against the Kraken, those teams have managed to produce just 2.76 expected goals per game, a decline of 15.2 percent below their average production for the year.

Grubauer and Driedger have faced opposing offenses that have averaged 3.30 expected goals per game this season. These offenses have been only mildly more threatening on average (+0.05 xG/game) than the offenses faced by Daccord. Yet, those offenses have managed 3.04 expected goals per game against the Kraken, a decline of just 7.7 percent below their season-average production.

The opposing team defenses in Joey Daccord’s time on ice have conceded just 3.07 expected goals per game on average, whereas the defenses in Grubauer and Driedger’s time have conceded 3.29 expected goals per game. Even so, as detailed above, Seattle’s overall shot quality has been stronger in Daccord’s starts.

In sum, quality of competition does not explain the observed disparity in shot quality when Daccord starts. If anything, the Kraken have faced more difficult opposing defenses in his starts, so one would expect to see lower expected goal production for the Kraken in Daccord’s starts. The opposite has happened.

Quality of teammates

If Daccord has had a healthier and more productive roster of Kraken players during his time on ice, one might expect superior shot quality outcomes. But, here again, Daccord has faced a roughly similar support context as the other goaltenders. 

The Kraken blue line has remained healthy for most of the year. Most of the variation has come in the forward group. 

Grubauer was operating as the lead goaltender until an injury landed him on injured reserve on Dec. 10, 2023. While healthy, he played a majority of his starts without Andre Burkavosky, a top-six forward, and Brandon Tanev, a bottom-six forward. Jaden Schwartz, another top-six player, was placed on injured reserve 11 days before Grubauer, so Grubauer missed Schwartz’s contributions for that time as well. 

For his part, Daccord played the large majority of his starts without both Schwartz and Burakovsky, two projected top-six forwards. Recently, he has started without Pierre-Edouard Bellemare, the team’s fourth-line center–an absence which may be felt on the penalty kill due to Bellemare’s face-off and shot-blocking abilities. 

I don’t view these relative absences as a probable explanation for the observed shot quality disparity.

Score effects

There is a well-documented phenomenon in hockey that trailing teams outshoot their opponents and leading teams get outshot, and the effect becomes more extreme the closer to the end of the game. 

The best research in the area tends to indicate that this is because leading teams “hang back” and play more conservatively, rather than some “improvement” in the compete level or production of their trailing opponents. Micah Blake McCurdy of HockeyViz has done research that suggests expected goal production by a team with a lead declines around 10 to 15 percent, while, on average, the trailing team continues to push at a pace similar to its level when the score was tied. 

As relevant here, the score effect phenomenon suggests that–through no inherent merit–a goalie may see relatively favorable aggregate shot quality for and against the goalie’s team if the goalie spends most time on the ice while the team is trailing. This is because the goalie’s teammates will continue to push for offense through that time, while the opponents ease off and play more conservatively. 

On the flipside, the shot quality for and against a goalie’s team may look less favorable if the goalie’s team spends much of the goalie’s time on ice protecting a lead. The team’s offensive numbers will decline while the opponents continue to push for an equalizing goal.

Here, HockeyViz data indicates that 43 percent of Daccord’s time on ice has been spent protecting a lead, against just 25 percent of his time behind on the scoreboard.  In contrast, the Kraken have been protecting a lead in just 21 percent of the time Grubauer and Driedger have been in goal, against 44 percent of the time trailing.

This suggests that score effects are not the cause of the observed shot quality disparity while Daccord is in goal. To the contrary, if we were to adjust for the impact of score effects–which I have not–the observed shot quality while Daccord is on the ice is significantly more impressive relative to the other goaltenders.

Change in Kraken skater performance

Another potential explanation is improved play by the Kraken skaters while Daccord is in goal unrelated to Joey Daccord himself. In other words, it could be a coincidence that Daccord has been in net when the skaters are performing better.

There is at least superficial appeal to this theory. Joey Daccord has assumed most of the team’s starts in goal since Grubauer landed on the injured list on Dec. 10. And that time has coincided with a long point streak the team has at least partially attributed to a tightened defensive approach.

As reported by Sound Of Hockey’s Darren Brown, Kraken defenseman Vince Dunn described an early-December team meeting as the jumping-off point for this modified mindset. “[We were] really chatting about our team identity, not looking at video and things like that,” Dunn said. “I think since that meeting, we’ve all been a lot more accountable. And we’ve been taking every game and our jobs a lot more personally and making sure that if we work hard and work smart and care for each other out there, then things should fall into place for us.”

Said Kraken coach Dave Hakstol after the Winter Classic, “In order to gain some traction and push the right direction here, we’ve had to do it with a defensive mindset and a real grinding type of mindset. We still have a lot of work left to do, but we’ve… look at it from where we were a couple weeks ago to where we are today. We’ve given ourselves a chance and an opportunity to keep climbing and keep working towards something.”

During the recent winning streak, we have also noted a more aggressive and effective approach by the penalty killing skaters. 

While these factors likely have contributed to recent improvements in suppressing opponent shot quality, I don’t think it fully explains what I have observed in Daccord’s numbers. First, an increased emphasis on defense does not directly explain the observed offensive shot quality gains the team has enjoyed with Daccord in net. 

Second, and more importantly, the timing of the team’s defensive adjustments noted by Dunn and Hakstol does not materially change my observation that the team suppresses shots against at a higher rate with Daccord in goal. Recall that I began working on this analysis because of numbers I was seeing in late November, before the Grubauer injury and recent win streak.

As I calculated above, overall the team has performed 15.2 percent better than “average” in suppressing opponent shot quality with Joey Daccord in goal. If we take out all of Daccord’s starts during the current point streak (since Dec. 12) and consider only his starts before then (up through Dec. 10), the Kraken performed 16.2 percent better than average suppressing opposing shot quality when Daccord was in goal during that time. In other words, Daccord is not simply “benefiting” from a recent run of strong play in front of him.

I don’t want to discount what the players are saying about scheme and mindset adjustments, but these numbers make me think that the recent strong defensive work has more to do with (1) the team entering a softer portion of the schedule, and (2) Daccord starting nearly every game in goal.

Finally, I should note one related potential explanation. It has been suggested that teams may play with greater confidence if a certain goaltender is in the net, which itself can improve the quality of skater play even though the goaltender is not having any type of direct impact. For example, Brown has made this case on The Sound Of Hockey Podcast when discussing Seattle’s run of strong play in front of Martin Jones last year.

I don’t have data to discount this theory necessarily. To the contrary, it is potentially supported by my discussion above that the Kraken have been better at suppressing shots with Daccord in goal throughout the season–even when the team wasn’t winning as much. And I chose Daccord as Seattle’s best “hype man” for a reason.

Still, I have a hard time rationalizing this as “the explanation” given the magnitude of the shot quality variation in all game play situations. Also, the Kraken themselves have not put any weight behind the theory. 

Regardless, if it is true Daccord has an innate ability to inspire confidence and improved play from his teammates, I suppose this trait–like his puck play–is value brought by Daccord himself beyond his “goals saved above expected.”

Randomness, small sample size, or noise

Lastly, it could be that the observed shot quality phenomenon is simply random noise in the data that would disappear in a larger sample. Up front, I’ll concede that this could prove true. That said, four factors suggest to me that the observed shot quality disparity isn’t completely random.

First, the numbers have been fairly consistent throughout the season–and across all contexts. I provided the five-on-five shot charts above. Here is the shot quality disparity on the penalty kill:

The team suppresses shots nine percent better than average on the penalty kill when Daccord is on the ice. When he’s not? The team is 28 percent worse than average with other goalies.

Here is the disparity on the power play:

Again, the team performs better with Daccord in net. The Kraken generate shot quality four percent better than average with Daccord, and 10 percent worse than average without him.

These disparities across all contexts are fairly large as well. This isn’t a case where one or two games could swing the analysis in the other direction.

Second, halfway through the season is when data analysts tend to begin publishing their findings on single-season shot data because the sample size has gotten large enough. With 40 games played, we’re in the right ballpark.

Third, a quick look at other historical goaltenders who have gained a reputation as “good puck handlers” supports the premise that a goalie may have a real, repeatable impact on the shot quality around him. 

For example, Carey Price is often mentioned as the best modern puck-handling goalie. In every single healthy Price season going back to 2016-17–which is as far back as I looked–the Canadiens had a net expected goal differential five-on-five that was stronger when Price was on the ice than when he was off the ice. (And this is potentially even more impressive when you consider that Price was treated as a workhorse starter in Montreal, and his backups likely took easier matchups.)

Fourth, I’ll invoke the “eye test.” My working theory “explaining” the observed shot disparity is built on game observations. I’ll finally get into it in a moment, but I think the tape supports the conclusion that Daccord has a significant impact on shot quality outcomes around him. 

All of that said, I do not want to overpromise on my conclusions here. I think we are years away from understanding whether Daccord’s play style has a significant, sustainable impact on the shot quality around him. The early returns are intriguing though. Let’s turn to that now.

Daccord’s active style is driving play for Seattle

Having found reasons to question the other options, we are left to consider whether something Joey Daccord does has improved shot quality outcomes around him.

My working theory in this regard is that Daccord’s active goaltending style is the reason. This is the obvious distinguishing factor between him and Philipp Grubauer. Daccord is much more aggressive coming out of his net to preempt opposing play and move the puck away from pressure and onto the sticks of his teammates. Daccord pairs this aggressive mindset with high-end puckhandling and passing skills that allow him to execute on plays that other goaltenders wouldn’t dare consider.

Those with a front-row seat to Daccord’s play have offered comments that could support this theory. In November, Kraken defenseman Adam Larsson told Kate Shefte of The Seattle Times that the goaltending play styles of Daccord and Grubauer are “pretty opposite.” “[Daccord]’s out of the net a lot more than [Grubauer]. It’s almost like an extreme in both ways, which is good and bad.”

“[Daccord] has a natural ability [playing the puck],” Hakstol said. “Joey wants to have an effect on every single play, and that’s usually not the way it works. He’s working to continue to pick his spots [playing the puck].”

Consider the following examples.

Here, during the team’s Dec. 14 game against Chicago, Daccord activates from the goal crease to gather a dump-in entry before it reaches the corner. He then scans the ice and delivers a pass off the boards past the first wave of forechecking Blackhawks and onto Devin Shore’s stick.

In contrast, Philipp Grubauer likely would have managed this play more conservatively, either staying in goal, or stopping it for his defensemen to gather and lead the breakout after he had resumed his position in the net. This delays the zone exit sequence and increases the forechecking risk, but mitigates the disaster scenario of a turnover leading to an empty-net goal.

Above are two examples of shoot-ins from Grubauer’s start in San Jose on Mar. 16, 2023, where Grubauer opts to stay in goal rather than stopping the puck and looking to move it onto a Seattle stick. Grubauer protects against the gaffe, but concedes two protracted defensive-zone sequences that he may have been able to break if he were more proactive and efficient with the puck.

The difficulty I had with this “explanation” for the shot quality disparity I was seeing is the sheer magnitude of the effect. I could rationalize active goaltending mitigating a chance here or there, or turning a stretch pass into an offensive shot attempt every few games, but the numbers suggested a much larger impact than I had expected. Could Daccord’s puck play really be responsible for nearly doubling the effectiveness of Seattle’s defense?

I wanted to know, so I started a project of closely watching and accounting this aspect of Daccord’s game for over a month. The results were eye-opening and led me to believe that Daccord’s extreme activity outside the goal could be a far more significant strategic advantage than any public analyst has yet been able to quantify.

I’ll get into that project in my next post, coming soon.

Curtis Isacke

Curtis is a Sound Of Hockey contributor and member of the Kraken press corps. Curtis is an attorney by day, and he has read the NHL collective bargaining agreement and bylaws so you don’t have to. He can be found analyzing the Kraken, NHL Draft, and other hockey topics on Twitter and Bluesky @deepseahockey.

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What are the Kraken packin’? A look at life on the road for NHL players

by Darren Brown | Jan 7, 2024 | Kraken

Sunday marks a team travel day for the Seattle Kraken, as they wing their way to upstate New York for the start of a two-week, six-game expedition that will zig zag them through Buffalo, Washington, Columbus, Pittsburgh, and New York (Rangers), before a strange stopover in Edmonton on the way home. 

For the streaking Kraken, who have won six straight and earned points in each of their last 10 (8-0-2), the trip represents an opportunity to solidify themselves back in the playoff bubble if they can string together more strong performances during these six games. 

“When you’re winning games and playing well on the road, it really helps your team bond,” Jordan Eberle said. “We had a great season on the road last year, and this road trip for us in the standings is going to be absolutely huge, so we want to continue that.”

In total, Kraken players, coaches, and traveling staff will spend 12 days on the road, bouncing from city to city and living out of their suitcases while still conforming to the NHL norms of making themselves presentable for entrances and exits to each arena on game days. 

So how do they pack for all that? What personal responsibilities do they need to handle before embarking on such a journey? We asked these questions of Kraken players and their coach to get a better understanding of what goes into preparing for an extended road trip like this one. 

The packing list

Clothing

One consistent theme we picked up from Kraken players was that they try to pack as lightly as they possibly can. They don’t want to be schlepping multiple suitcases through six different cities, and they’re more willing than we expected to re-wear clothing in order to make it all fit into one piece of luggage. 

Take Alex Wennberg, for example, who considers himself a minimalist when it comes to packing for a long trip. “[I’m a] one-suit kind of guy,” Wennberg said. “I learned the hard way to bring another dress shirt because, you know… pasta, meat sauce with a white dress shirt; not always the best combo. Other than that, it’s just a pair of sneakers and the dress shoes, so I pack light.” 

Yes, that’s one suit for six games, but the center doesn’t plan on doing laundry or dry cleaning during the journey. 

“No way [I’m doing laundry], I’m just dealing with it. And, I mean, if worse comes to worst, there’s some stores that could help me out with [clothes], so yeah, that’s my idea.” 

Defenseman Will Borgen is similar in his approach. “I usually just pack, obviously a suit, sweatpants, sweatshirt, some going-out-to-dinner clothes, some jeans. Loungewear… some shorts for the hotel, that’s about it.”

Eberle, on the other hand, figured out a hack for making the suits look a bit fresher in his walk-in photos from game to game. 

“I usually only have like two pairs of pants and two jackets, so I flip them around with the blazers,” Eberle said. “And then, you obviously need a couple shirts. So I’ve just learned that it’s easier to pack that way, and then you’ve just got to figure out outfits for dinner.”

Of the players we talked to, it seemed that two dress shirts was about the maximum they would pack, and even that was to be on the cautious side. Jared McCann said he learned the hard way on a trip earlier this season when he tried to get by with just one dress shirt. 

“Beginning of the season, I had a pretty bad spill, and it was like a one-day road trip,” McCann said. “So I didn’t have an extra dress shirt, and I had to wear my polo. I looked like an idiot.”

As for coach Dave Hakstol, who has to be fully buttoned up on the bench for each game and will be featured prominently on television, he had yet to actually get his bag packed as of Saturday afternoon. 

“I’ll let you know [what I’m bringing] in about two hours,” Hakstol said. “I’ve got to go home and pack. I’m trying to figure out how I can get through with one suit and two shirts, but I don’t think that’s going to work. So yeah, it’s a long list for this one.”

Even so, Hakstol indicated he would not allow himself to exceed one suitcase for the trip. 

“Essentials”

There were a few different ideas of what the “essential” non-clothing items were that players would make sure to bring along. 

For example, McCann jumped straight to snacks, specifically Skittles, while Borgen veered toward his iPad, headphones, and his Nintendo Switch, which he plays with, “Yammer, Dumo, Schuller, Bjorky, Lars, Matty, and then sometimes Schwartzy, sometimes Kartsy.” (When you’re talking about playing Switch with the boys on the road, you simply have no choice but to refer to them by nicknames only.) 

Wennberg brings his computer for movies, and McCann brings his “PC,” as he called it, for occasional gaming of his own. 

But then there’s the card-playing crew, which requires a unique piece of equipment, a “ledger” that is carried and maintained by Eberle for playing a game he called “13 Up, 13 Down.”

“Hey, Schwartzy, who’s the best card player?” Eberle called across the Kraken dressing room. 

Jaden Schwartz yelled back, “Probably me.” 

Eberle did not accept this answer. “No, be honest.” 

Schwartz thought about it again for a moment, and then, in a more hushed tone, said, “Ebs is pretty good.” 

“Yeah, see? I just needed him to say it,” Eberle said with a smirk. 

Personal dealings

It can often be lost on fans that professional athletes are human beings with families and real-life, adult responsibilities of their own. For some, going away for two weeks isn’t an easy thing to do. 

The preparation levels for such a trip range from “Just make sure the lights are off and lock the door,” in Borgen’s case, to making sure to spend quality time with wives and kids in the cases of veterans like Wennberg and Eberle, or—in McCann’s scenario—giving plenty of attention to Cheddar, his pet corgi. 

“I prefer to be home, rather than on the road,” Wennberg said. “On the road, you’re doing the same thing all the time. You’re hanging out in your room, you go out for dinners, which is nice, but eventually you kind of miss the home life, the family. But, I mean, it’s part of work. There’s nothing you can do about it, so I try to make the best out of it and just see some positives.”

While life on the road brings nice perks for NHL players, like flying on a chartered all-first-class jet, staying in five-star hotels, and dining in top-tier restaurants with teammates, players with families know they are missed when they’re away. 

“I think it’s nice, nowadays, obviously with FaceTime, that you’re able to see [the kids] every day and try and get that in,” Eberle said. “But as bad as this is to say, I think they’re used to me leaving quite a bit. That’s always the hardest part for me is just being away from the kids for so long.”

Having said that, for a father of two young children, Eberle sees some benefits to going out on the road.

“You get a chance to get a full night’s sleep, which is nice,” Eberle said with a laugh. “I mean, you miss [the kids], but you get a full night’s sleep, so that’s always huge.”

—

Seattle’s first game of the six-game trip will be played Tuesday at the Buffalo Sabres at 4 p.m. PT and will end Thursday, Jan. 18, with a game at the Edmonton Oilers.

Darren Brown

Darren Brown is the Chief Content Officer at soundofhockey.com and the host of the Sound Of Hockey Podcast. He is a member of the PHWA and is also usually SOH’s Twitter intern (but please pretend you don’t know that). Follow him @DarrenFunBrown and @sound_hockey or email darren@soundofhockey.com.

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