Monday Musings is a collection of random thoughts and observations about the last week of activity from the hockey world with an emphasis on the Kraken and other happenings around the Puget Sound hockey community.
Kraken Thoughts
The Kraken head into the bye week and All-Star break with a 29-15-5 record and the most points in the NHL since the turn of the Gregorian calendar year. The Kraken went 2-1-0 this week with first-time-in-franchise-history wins against the Vancouver Canucks and Columbus Blue Jackets, and they are sitting in first place in the Pacific Division. I mentioned it on the Sound Of Hockey podcast last week but I felt the win against the Canucks was important to finally get that rivalry monkey off Seattle’s back. The Kraken are still a miserable 1-5-1 against the Canucks in their first two seasons.
It would have been nice to get the win against Calgary, but getting four out of a possible six points is more than adequate and a nice way to enter the bye week.
Penalty kill
If you just look at the penalty kill stats across the league, the PK does not look good for the Kraken. They have a penalty kill success rate of 72.3 percent which is good— er, bad enough for 31st in the league. However, sometimes you need to unpeel the onion to see what is inside.
For starters, the Kraken give up the 12th fewest short-handed opportunities per game, which is not outstanding, but it is better than average. The logic is even though their penalty kill is performing poorly, if you give fewer opportunities per game, you are not allowing as many power-play goals against.
All that said, the real story is that the penalty kill has been outstanding as of late, having not allowed a power-play goal in the last seven games. The reality is the Kraken’s power penalty kill numbers for the season are low because of a brutal penalty kill mid-November to early December. We cannot just throw those numbers out and say, “Look, the PK is good,” but if you consider its success over time, you can see how Seattle’s PK has had stretches where it is in the top half of the league.
Here is a look at a ten-game moving average for the Kraken in relation to the rest of the league.
I am not saying the Kraken now have one of the best penalty kills in the league, but it is certainly an encouraging trend that we will continue to monitor.
Eeli Tolvanen
The Eeli Tolvanen waiver claim in December could go down as the most brilliant/lucky front office move of the season. Tolvanen had a goal in each of the Kraken’s three games last week. He leads the Kraken with eight goals since he entered the lineup on Jan. 1. To add to the Nashville humiliation, Tolvanen’s eight goals are three more than Cody Glass and Filip Forsberg’s team-leading five goals since Jan. 1.
EELI GOALVANEN! 🚨
Can’t believe the #SeaKraken got this guy off waivers.
Last week, Geoff Baker from the Seattle Times wrote an article about lower TV viewership for Kraken games on ROOT Sports this season. The article is fine but as a seasoned data analyst, it is hard not to point out the flaws in some of the conclusions of unnamed sources.
First, remember that a lot of TV ratings have some kind of seasonality associated with them. We all know the Seahawks suck all the sports media coverage in season, so it is a challenge to divert eyeballs when the Seahawks are playing well. Comparing October through January ratings to October through April from the season before is incomplete. Second, winning will impact things like TV ratings and attendance, but there tends to be a lag in the success on the ice to show up in the TV ratings.
In addition to seeing a full-season comparable, I would love to evaluate ratings on the day of the week, time the game starts, opponent, and then evaluate how those change season over season. Some of those variables might not materially impact the ratings, but they are part of the exploration and analysis.
There was a take in the article that a “lack of local personalities might also be dragging on ratings,” and I personally don’t agree with that at all. I have heard from countless people that are in awe over the talent of the Kraken broadcast. We are so lucky to have this crew covering Kraken games, and in watching literally hundreds of games a season across the league, this crew stands up with the best of them. The content in intermission is insightful, and thank goodness they do not do a betting ad during the broadcast disguised as a segment.
I know there are a lot of people who have been arguing for a direct-to-consumer model, but the economics and reach of offering something like that do not make sense right now. Trust me, I wish it did. Regional sports network or RSN (i.e. ROOT Sports) deals are lucrative to sports teams because when they have RSN’s in their offering, it increases their value proposition to the consumer.
For you gamers out there, think of it like Halo’s relationship to the game console. If I really want to play Halo, the only console I can play on is Xbox, so what do I buy? An Xbox. If Halo was available on PlayStation as well, then to me—the avid Halo fan—the Xbox lost some value, so I might consider buying a PlayStation.
I do expect a day where you can subscribe to ROOT and ROOT only through a direct-to-consumer model, but as of now, it might not be economically viable.
In the meantime, I wish ROOT could add a few more over-the-top virtual MVPD providers like Hulu and YoutubeTV. Root Sports is available on Fubo TV, but since Fubo does not have a distribution deal with TNT, it is not a perfect solution for hockey fans.
Other Kraken musings:
It was fun to see Alexander Wennberg score a goal in his 600th career NHL game against the team that drafted him. Wennberg has been strong and steady all year and does not get nearly enough credit for the contributions he has made to this team’s success. Stick taps for Wenny.
Trade deadline chatter is going to heat up over the next month. There is an argument to be made that the Kraken should stand down from doing anything major. This team has been extremely balanced with goal scoring throughout the lineup, and you never know how changes could impact the chemistry we are seeing.
The injury bug has started to bite. Matty Beniers joined Justin Schultz and Jaden Schwartz as the latest Kraken to be out for injury for the Friday and Saturday games. As Darren mentioned in his Walk and Talk after the Columbus game, Dave Hakstol mentioned that none of the injuries seem too serious, which implies that all these guys could be returning sooner rather than later.
Cale Fleury has really stepped in nicely since Schultz went down with an injury. The two play different roles in the Kraken defensive core, but Fleury looks comfortable in there, and Hakstol seems to trust him in most game scenarios.
Hakstol sounded very impressed with Cale Fleury’s game tonight. Called it “seamless” the way he slid into the lineup.
Speaking of Hakstol, there have been a few awards projection articles in the national media, and none of them have Hakstol very high on their list for Jack Adams candidates. It seems silly to start arguing who should get the awards at the end of the year, but the fact that he is rarely even mentioned is another testimonial to the fact that a lot of the national media continues to sleep on the Seattle Kraken. I’m fine with that.
Daniel Sprong has not scored in five games, which is his longest goal-scoring drought of the season. In a backwards way, this is a nod to how good of a season he is having.
The Kraken goalie tandem of Martin Jones and Philipp Grubauer continues to play well. Jones will end January with a 9-2-0 record and a .916 save percentage, while Grubauer will end with a 2-1-1 record and a .940 save percentage. The league average save percentage in January is .907 through Sunday’s games.
It does not seem to be that serious, but Shane Wright suffered a lower-body injury last week and missed the three Windsor Spitfires games over the weekend.
ICYMI, it was reported that Joonas Donskoi suffered his seventh career concussion in the pre-season, which has kept him out all season. This one seemed to be more severe than prior concussions, shedding more doubt on his return this season.
Kraken fifth-round draft pick from the 2021 NHL Entry Draft, Jacob Melanson, has not missed a beat since being traded to the Sherbrooke Phoenix in the QMJHL. He has 11 goals and eight assists over 11 games since the trade. Melanson is signed by Seattle and is likely to be playing for the Coachella Valley Firebirds next season.
Kraken themes for the week ahead
There’s not much going on this week for the Seattle Kraken as they enter their bye week. Expect a lot of Instagram photos of the players on beaches and golf courses. The boys have had one heck of a season so far, so hopefully they get some rest and relaxation to recharge the batteries for a final push.
Despite the injury last week, Matty Beniers appears to be the Kraken representative to participate in the All-Star Game. As much ire as traditional hockey fans have for the All-Star Game, I still enjoy it. It is a chance to see some of the personalities and skills of the stars in the NHL, something that is hard to replicate during the regular season. The Skills Competition takes place on Friday at 4pm Pacific on ESPN. The 3-on-3 All-Star tournament starts Saturday at noon Pacific time on ABC.
Player Performance / Stick Taps
Oliver Bjorkstrand (SEA) – Bjorkstrand had four points in three games for the Kraken including two goals against the Vancouver Canucks. After being relatively snake-bitten most of the year, Bjorkstrand has been due for a pop. We hope he can keep it rolling after the break.
David Goyette (Sudbury-SEA) – The 2022 second-round draft pick has 14 points in 11 games during the month of January. He leads the Sudbury Wolves of the OHL with 61 points this season.
Jackson Boboth (SEA) – Make-A-Wish Alaska & Washington teamed up with the Kraken to get this young goalie an opportunity to skate and “sign” with the Kraken. Boboth appeared to be the lucky charm to beat the Canucks on Wednesday night and was named the first star of the game.
⭐️⭐️⭐️ Adam Larsson ⭐️⭐️ Oliver Bjorkstrand ⭐️ Jackson Boboth 🥹
Who would have thought that Sprong and Donato would be top-5 in scoring per 60 for the Kraken at the All-Star break?
Thanks again for all your engagement and questions on these posts. If you have anything you want me to look into, feel free to leave your suggestions in the comments.
Monday Musings is a collection of random thoughts and observations about the last week of activity from the hockey world with an emphasis on the Kraken and other happenings around the Puget Sound hockey community.
Kraken thoughts
On the surface, a 1-2-1 week does not sound like a great week. The games on Monday and Tuesday of last week felt like an ambush and account for the two losses. On Monday, the Kraken faced the Tampa Bay Lightning at home less than 36 hours after they returned from a two-week seven-game road trip. Right after that game they would immediately jump on a plane for a road game in Edmonton the following day.
It was a tough scenario that ultimately ended with two regulation losses. Both games featured a healthy amount of “compete” from the boys, but they looked tired at times. Coming up with a win or even a point would have been nice, but just chalk it up to a challenging schedule.
Thursday night, the Kraken dominated the New Jersey Devils, but the Devils stuck around and forced overtime with an extra skater on the ice. That just prolonged the inevitable with Andre Burakovsky burying the game winner just 70 seconds into the extra frame. Then Saturday’s game against the Colorado Avalanche was a bit of a slugfest that ended in a 2-1 shootout loss.
The last week of games could have been better, but the Kraken are 7-2-1 over their last 10 and are now sitting, by points percentage, in first place in the Pacific Division.
Injury bug
One of the Kraken’s strengths this season has been their health. Going into last week, Seattle was one of three teams to only suit up 23 different skaters this season. For context, Colorado, Toronto, and Columbus have each used over 30 different skaters this season. The Kraken have been remarkably healthy.
Unfortunately, we started to see some health issues pop up this week. About halfway through the Edmonton game on Tuesday, Justin Schultz took an innocuous-looking hit halfway through the second period, but he left immediately after and did not return the rest of the game. Schultz has not played in the two games since the Edmonton game. Then, in somewhat of a surprise, Andre Burakovsky was out of the lineup on Saturday night against his former team just two days after scoring the overtime game winner against the Devils.
Schultz and Burakovsky joined Jaden Schwartz who has not played since Jan. 12. All three of those guys have been significant contributors to the Kraken’s success this season and will be critical for the long-term outlook of this team. It should be noted that none of the three have been officially placed on injured reserve so maybe we should not be overly concerned here.
The All-Star break is just three Kraken games away, and with extra recovery days on the horizon, this might be the best time for minor injuries to hit.
Strength in the Pacific?
As well as the Kraken have been playing, it is important to point out that Edmonton and Calgary have also been winning. It is great to celebrate the recent success, but the Kraken cannot lift their foot off the pedal. There are teams doing everything they can to get back in the playoff hunt.
Right now, 95 points is the projected cutoff for making the playoffs. If the Kraken were to play .500 hockey the rest of the season, they would have 95 points exactly.
Other Kraken musings:
Sunday was the Kraken’s second annual Super Skills Showcase. Anyone who attended knew exactly what it was about… the kids. It was so amazing to see how many young fans were able to attend, and it certainly seemed like there were more activities for the kids before the event this season.
The events of the Super Skills Showcase were fun, but I enjoyed the puck juggling event last year and would have really enjoyed seeing a Ruff-Ruff Relay. Oh, well. I guess seeing Cheddar McCann was pretty cool.
John Hayden suited up for the Kraken on Saturday night to play his first NHL game of the season. He played under nine minutes but had a golden opportunity to score a go-ahead goal in the third period on a two-on-one opportunity. He shot it wide, but that would have been quite the fun moment for Hayden who has 241 NHL games in his career.
Hayden was reassigned to Coachella Valley on Sunday, but with three Kraken games over four days, do not be surprised to see him called back up.
Speaking of Coachella Valley, the Kraken’s AHL affiliate is now 27-6-3 and has the best record in the AHL.
Firebirds captain Max McCormick was named the AHL’s Player of the Week after notching four goals and four assists in three games, including a hat trick on Saturday.
One challenging area for the Kraken this season is the faceoff circle. The Kraken have the third worst faceoff-win percentage in the league. I have mentioned him before, but Morgan Geekie’s hidden value is what he brings to the faceoff circle. He is the only right-shot center on the team which enables coach Dave Hakstol to deploy Geekie regularly when the puck is being dropped on his strong faceoff side.
He might not make the score sheet every night, but I love watching Yanni Gourde play. He is the heart and soul of this team.
Add Ryan Donato to the list of Kraken players that will likely have a career high in goals scored this season. He has three goals in the last two games and is just five goals away from that career mark.
This will require a deeper dive, but both Kraken goalies are playing well right now. Since Dec. 23, Philipp Grubauer’s save percentage is .914 and Martin Jones’s is .910. The Kraken will need both goalies to play well to continue the team’s success this season.
Speaking of goalies, Chris Driedger has been skating at Kraken Community Iceplex for some time now. I have been getting a lot of questions about what the team does when he comes back from injured reserve. The short answer is, I do not know. I expect him to still be a couple weeks away from seeing any kind of game action, but when he is ready, Seattle will more than likely put him in a conditioning stint in the AHL. From a timeline perspective, I feel he will join the Kraken’s roster after the NHL Trade Deadline, at which time the team can expand its roster size and he could be carried as the third goalie.
Several fans have asked about trading one of the goalies. Based on contracts and the success of the team, I do not see it as a realistic scenario for any of them to be traded this season.
With the All-Star break coming up, it is a great time to check out some WHL action. The Seattle Thunderbirds are playing excellent hockey and are currently the best team in the Western Conference. During the NHL All-Star break, the T-birds have a home-and-home series with the Everett Silvertips Friday, Feb. 3 and Saturday, Feb. 4, and play again at home against Spokane on Sunday, Feb. 5. The Silvertips also host Red Deer on Sunday, Feb. 5.
Kraken themes for the week ahead
There is a series of interesting games coming up this week for the Kraken. On Wednesday, the Vancouver Canucks will visit Seattle to play their first road game under new head coach Rick Tocchet. Tocchet interviewed with the Kraken to be their first coach, so you can imagine he might have some extra motivation that night. The Kraken are 0-5-1 all time against the Canucks, and Vancouver is one of four teams remaining that Seattle has never beaten in its brief franchise history. Those narratives aside, these are two point that the Kraken, at least on paper, should pick up.
On Friday, the division rival Calgary Flames visit Seattle. The Flames are currently outside the playoff cutoff and will feel some level of desperation to make up ground on Seattle. The Flames are the team I am paying attention to the most right now. They are on the outside of the playoff bubble and badly need points to get back in the race.
The Columbus Blue Jackets visiting Seattle will be an excellent opportunity to pick up some points. The Blue Jackets are dead last in the league with just 30 points in the standings. This will be the last Kraken game before the All-Star break, though, so it feels like a trap.
Kraken health
I expect Burakovsky to be back in the lineup soon but am less optimistic about Schultz and Schwartz. Burakovsky warmed up against Colorado before being scratched, so that would indicate his injury isn’t too severe. Although the team has not released any details on Schultz and Schwartz, they have each missed multiple games. Even if they could play, resting Schultz and Schwartz this week before the All-Star break might be the best play here.
Player Performance / Stick Taps
Ryan Donato (SEA) – The injury to Schwartz has allowed Donato to play further up the lineup and he is seizing it. He has three goals in the last two games and is currently on pace for 21 goals on the season.
Clayton Keller (ARI) – There have not been a lot of bright spots for the Coyotes this season, but Keller is one of them. He scored a hat trick against the Golden Knights on Sunday in a 4-1 win. Thanks Clayton.
Vitek Vanecek (NJD) – The “former” Kraken netminder had two wins in two starts and posted a .931 save percentage in those two games last week for the New Jersey Devils. If you do not know the story about Vitek, he was drafted by Seattle in the NHL Expansion Draft, but when the Kraken signed Grubauer in free agency a week later, Vanecek became expendable. The Kraken traded him back to the Capitals for a second-round draft pick.
Goal of the week
The @SeattleKraken prospects connect for the game-winner 🤝
Ty Nelson fools everyone and finds Kyle Jackson behind the net, scoring the go-ahead goal to help lead the @OHLBattalion past the Wolves at home 📽️ pic.twitter.com/8tLC8X4zxe
What should be obvious by now, the Seattle Kraken are the second-most-improved team in the league.
Thanks again for all your engagement and questions on these posts. If you have anything you want me to look into, feel free to leave your suggestions in the comments.
Monday Musings is a collection of random thoughts and observations about the last week of activity from the hockey world with an emphasis on the Kraken and other happenings around the Puget Sound hockey community.
Kraken thoughts
Good, but it still stings
Taking three out of four points against the Winnipeg Jets and Vancouver Canucks felt good, but missing out on that fourth point was a bummer. The Kraken were so close to getting that Vancouver monkey off their backs for that fourth point, but alas, it was not to be.
The Kraken played well enough to win, but I have a hard time saying they should have won. Despite leading 70 percent of the game and never trailing, they didn’t put the Canucks away and seemed to have a lack of defensive structure that night. The Kraken moved to 0-5-1 against the Canucks all time with two more games still to come against them this season.
Scoring depth continues to be a strength for the Kraken
Goal scoring by committee continues to be a strength of the team. It is a huge asset to not overly rely on just a few players for a team’s goal scoring. Over the last four games, the Kraken’s leading goal scorer is Daniel Sprong with four goals, while Jared McCann and Ryan Donato are right behind him with three goals apiece. Here is a look at the percentage of goal scoring for Pacific Division teams by the top three goal scorers of each team.
Edmonton is a bit of an outlier here. Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl are going to have a huge share of any team’s goal total, so I am not prepared to say that scoring is a problem for the Oilers, but there is a risk there. If either of those two gets hurt, or if an opponent has a shutdown line that can minimize the damage from Draisaitl or McDavid, then Edmonton will struggle.
Other Kraken musings:
Daniel Sprong scored his 10th goal of the season against the Canucks and is just four goals shy of a single-season career high of 14. It’s incredible for someone that signed a PTO before training camp, then a one-year, two-way contract at the league minimum salary. He is having an incredible season, especially considering he is averaging 10:37 of ice time per game.
Jared McCann is on pace for 44 goals this season.
The loss against the Canucks on Thursday was the first Kraken game to go to a shootout this season. There are four remaining teams that have yet to play a shootout game: Devils, Senators, Maple Leafs, and Jets.
The Canucks are one of six teams and the only Western Conference team the Kraken have never beaten. The other teams the Kraken have not defeated are the Blue Jackets, Bruins, Flyers, Leafs, and Lightning.
People outside Seattle like to refer to Sprong / Morgan Geekie / Brandon Tanev as a fourth line, but with how they produce, one could argue Seattle doesn’t actually have a true fourth line. Just look at this entire sequence below.
NHL Video Highlight – Daniel Sprong gets a long pass from Morgan Geekie, takes off all alone and fires a wrist shot from the slot to make it 3-0 in the 2nd period. pic.twitter.com/jgVRzrGo89
I was a little surprised to not see Philipp Grubauer start one of the games last week. His last two starts (against Carolina and Winnipeg) have been two of his stronger performances of the year. He saved 36 out of 39 shots against Carolina and gave the team a shot to win that game. Against Winnipeg, the only goals allowed were on the penalty kill, one of which was a five-on-three for the Jets.
The Kraken do not have a player with a hat trick this season. This seems like a long time to go without one when you consider Jordan Eberle’s hat trick came in November last season. Naturally, I looked up some data on it and only 16 teams have at least one player with a hat trick this season. The more you know.
It would be a lot of fun to see one of the Killer B’s (Beniers, Oliver Bjorkstrand, or Andre Burakovsky) score a hat trick against Calgary or Edmonton. Just putting that out in the universe in hopes it will manifest itself.
The Coachella Valley Firebirds had their first ever teddy bear toss game on Friday. The boys took their time to get those bears flying, but they finally broke through when Luke Henman scored with under seven minutes left in the game. The Firebirds would hold on to beat the Henderson Silver Knights 1-0.
It feels like another big week for the Kraken as both Alberta teams make their first trips to Climate Pledge Arena this season, with the Calgary Flames here Wednesday and the Edmonton Oilers in on Friday. These games feel bigger than they should for a pair of games in December, but those are the two opponents immediately behind the Kraken in the standings. It might be a safe bet that these two teams are the most likely candidates to be competing with Seattle for a playoff spot come April.
The Kraken played the Flames back on Nov. 1 in Calgary, where they came back from a two-goal deficit in the third period and won. At the time, that seemed like a big upset, but since then, the Kraken have played at a .682 point percentage compared to the Flames .518. The Flames will be looking for vengeance and hoping to gain ground on the Kraken.
McDavid and the Edmonton Oilers will also look to gain ground on the Kraken in their first matchup this season when they visit on Friday. I cannot figure out the Oilers this season, as I expect them to make a run sooner or later, but it just has not happened… yet. The goaltending has been underwhelming but on par with the Kraken, so it feels like the lack of depth scoring makes it challenging for this team to win hockey games. That being said, I would never count out a team that has McDavid and think it is just be a matter of time before he wills this team onto a hot streak.
Bjorkstrand’s time to heat up?
I’ve mentioned Oliver Bjorkstrand has been a bit unlucky this season with a shooting percentage of just 4.7 percent after Thursday’s goal in Vancouver. The eye test says he has been getting a lot of quality chances and several goal posts hit over the last few games. According to the analytics from NaturalStatTrick.com, he had a Corsi for percentage of over 60 percent in each of the last three games. The eyes and the numbers tell the same story here; Bjorkstrand is due to get hot.
Special teams
The Kraken have not scored a power-play goal in the last four games with 11 opportunities in that stretch. Ironically, the power play has looked good during that period but could never quite break the seal. Calgary and Edmonton are two of the most penalized teams in the league so Seattle should get some opportunities this week, something to keep an eye on.
On the penalty kill side, the Kraken have the second worst penalty kill in the league and have allowed a power-play goal against in four out of the last five games. The PK has shown improvement recently, but it would be nice to see it pitch a shutout for a game or two. The big thing Seattle wants to avoid is giving the league-leading Edmonton Oilers’ power play many opportunities Friday. There is nothing scarier than seeing McDavid, Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, and whoever else they throw out there on a power play against your team in the third period.
World Junior Championship
World Juniors kicked off Monday, and Kraken fans have a couple reasons to watch. Shane Wright is centering the top line for Canada with 2023 elite prospect Connor Bedard, a duo that should be fun for all hockey fans. Finland has two Kraken second-round draft picks from the 2022 NHL Entry Draft in goalie Niklas Kokko and forward Jani Nyman, both of whom are having quality years for their respective teams.
All games will be broadcast on NHL Network. Here is the schedule for all the games featuring Kraken prospects in the group round.
Player Performances
Elias Pettersson (VAN) – if you watched the Kraken game against Vancouver, you already know what he did. Pettersson had two goals and three assists plus the winning shootout goal against Seattle. He also had two assists in the Canucks’ victory against Edmonton on Friday.
Morgan Geekie (SEA) – Geekie had three assists in three games last week, while only averaging 10 minutes per game and spending roughly two of those minutes per game on the penalty kill.
Alexandar Georgiev (COL) – the Colorado Avalanche goaltender had three starts and three wins last week with a .965 save percentage. All three of his games went to overtime including a 0-0 game that he eventually won in a shootout.
Goal of the week
This Eberle goal is a little old now, but it was all kinds of nasty and warrants another call out.
JORDAN EBERLE ARE YOU FOR REAL?!? 🤯 A spinning + no-look + top shelf backhand and that's just a beautiful thing. pic.twitter.com/qP2fkUh2rw
The Kraken have been remarkably healthy this season (knock on wood), with Gustav Olofsson as the only player to appear in a game after not making the opening-night roster.
Thanks again for all your engagment and questions on these posts. If you have anything you want me to look into, feel free to leave your suggestions in the comments section.
