The last three games have gone as poorly as possible, and I am in no mood to relive them. The Seattle Kraken playoff odds were long a week ago and got exponentially longer with each of the three losses this week. MoneyPuck gives the Kraken just a two-percent chance of qualifying for the playoffs, but I think even that is generous at this point.
I am sure there is some mathematical combination of wins and losses across the two wild card teams and three teams sitting out of the playoff bubble that gives Seattle a two-percent shot at making it through, but it is not going to happen.
Season expectations
At the beginning of the season, if you would have told me the Kraken would finish out of the playoff picture with around 85 points in the standings, I would have thought that sounded about right. Last year’s unsustainable shooting percentage was unlikely to carry over at the same rate this season, especially with limited additions and the notable departures from last season. But truth be told, this is not how we expected this campaign to unfold. The team started ice cold with just three wins in their first 10 games of the season, and except for a brief period in November, the group was clawing to get into the playoff picture all season.
Injuries seemed to plague this team from the start. Brandon Tanev was hurt in Game 1 of the season against Vegas. Andre Burakovsky went down in the sixth game of the season and missed 20 of the next 21 games. Sprinkle in injuries to Jordan Eberle, Jaden Schwartz, Vince Dunn, Justin Schultz, and even Philipp Grubauer, plus the illness that seemed to destroy the team for a stretch in January, and you start to feel this was not your typical hardship for a team.
Now, injuries are part of the game, and plenty of other teams overcome a similar quantity of injuries. But as much as we say this team’s strength is its depth, that depth only goes as far as about 20 players. Once you dip below those 20, things thin out quickly.
Where can we get some goal scoring?
It has been a theme all season, but the team has struggled to score. The Kraken are 28th in the league in scoring, averaging just 2.68 goals per game. I’ve heard a lot of people and pundits say the Kraken need a high-end goal scorer. Well, no kidding, but you don’t just go out and get a high-end goal scorer. They do not become available, and if they do, you are going to have to overpay and commit too many years to a contract.
I’ve said it before, and I will say it again. Spending on the high-end scorers that reach free agency is risky business. Sam Reinhart will score more than 50 goals this season and could hit free agency this offseason. Do you think Ron Francis should pursue a 28-year-old Reinhart for $10-plus million dollars a year for the next seven years when the forward’s previous high-water mark was 33 goals a season? I don’t.
The best chance at getting that goal scorer is to draft and develop or somehow convince another team to do something idiotic at the trade deadline. This is probably why I am most excited about what Carson Rehkopf could bring in the future. I have talked about him all season and generally think he could have the most potential in the franchise right now to become that high-end goal scorer. There is a long way to go to prove that out, but I am certain he will be given an opportunity to make the team next season.
Rehkopf will be 19 years old at the beginning of 2023-24, and based on the CHL development agreement, if he does not make the NHL roster, he will need to return to the OHL next season.
One bright spot for the Kraken this season has been their defense. I don’t necessarily mean the defenders themselves, but the team defensively as a whole has performed well. A good chunk of the defensive performance attribution needs to go the goalie tandem of Joey Daccord and Grubauer. At .925, the Kraken have the second-highest save percentage of any team since Dec. 1, behind only the tandem of Connor Hellebuyck and Laurent Brossoit in Winnipeg.
I knew the goalies had been solid but did not expect them to be second in the league over that time span. It sure would be nice to see this trend continue next season.
Other Musings
It is probably stating the obvious, but one player to keep an eye on down this stretch is Ryker Evans. He has been in the lineup since the Vince Dunn injury and will probably get more opportunity even after Dunn comes back. Evans is ahead of schedule in his development. He is one of eight defensemen in the NHL from the 2021 NHL Entry Draft but still needs time to grow and get used to the speed of the top league in the world.
I do expect a few prospects from the Coachella Valley Firebirds to come up before this season is finished. Shane Wright and Ryan Winterton are the obvious players in question (though Wright is close to burning a year of his entry-level contract, so we don’t expect him until the last few games). I also wonder if Logan Morrison or Ville Ottavainen might get an opportunity down the stretch.
The Firebirds are currently second in points across the AHL and are 8-0-1-1 over their last 10 games.
Despite his struggles this season, I still think Andre Burakovsky could be the best pure goal scorer the Kraken have on the roster right now. But he obviously needs to stay healthy. Can he do that through next season?
The Kraken overtime game against Vegas was Seattle’s 18th overtime game of the season, a franchise record. They had 17 overtime games last season and 12 in 2021-22.
I never thought I would say this, but can we not have any Saturday home games next season? The Kraken are now 0-6-2 at Climate Pledge Arena on Saturdays. Lucky for us, the Kraken have only one more Saturday game this season.
Face-off goals against reared its ugly head last week. It happened once against Vegas when Pavel Dorofeyev scored one second after a draw and a second time when Roman Josi scored three seconds after a face-off for the Predators’ third goal on Saturday. On both goals, the issue was not losing the face-off; it was that someone should have challenged the shots.
2-1 VGK's.
Wonky goal there, after Karlsson broke his stick on the face-off. It popped up, and Dorofeyev whacked it before it hit the ice. pic.twitter.com/0T0onlU9ht
Those face-off goals were the seventh and eighth time the Kraken have been scored on within five seconds of a face-off. That is second in the league behind the Tampa Bay Lightning who have allowed 10 face-off goals.
Another ghost from seasons past that showed up this week was the response goal the Kraken allowed to Vegas. After Oliver Bjorkstrand put the Kraken up by two goals with 8:30 left in the third period, the Golden Knights scored less than a minute later to claw within one. Vegas really came to life after that goal, and the rest is sad, season-ending history.
That was the eighth response goal the Kraken have allowed this season, which is about middle of the pack across the league. I don’t have the numbers, but I remember it being much more common in Season 1.
The Kraken are one of four teams without a hat trick scored in a game this season. I would like to see one before the season is done. The only home hat trick in franchise history came against Buffalo in Season 1 when Eberle scored three goals against Buffalo. The Kraken play Buffalo Monday.
I like seeing players’ first career goals, and I love it when they are at home. Ryker Evans has played 21 NHL games and has yet to score a goal.
Player performances
Kole Lind (CVF/SEA) – The Coachella Valley Firebirds winger has a six-game point streak with nine points. It would be nice to see him play some NHL games to close out the season.
Eduard Sale (KIT/SEA) – The Kitchener Ranger has 12 points in his last 10 games with five goals over that span. Sale has underperformed this season in relation to his draft position, so it is great to see him starting to hit his stride.
Jani Nyman (ILV/SEA) – The second-rounder from the 2022 NHL Draft had only one game this week, but he was able to net three power-play goals and 11 shots in Ilves’ regular season finale in Liiga. They are the second seed in the playoffs with their first game of the playoffs on Thursday against KalPa.
Shane Wright is somewhat quietly having quite the rookie year in Coachella Valley.
What to watch for from here on out
After the loss to the Washington Capitals on Thursday night, I came to grips with the reality that these remaining Kraken games will not mean much in the playoff picture. My mind immediately started to wonder how I would watch the remaining games of the season. I am excited to watch and enjoy seeing Seattle win when it can, but with the playoff hopes out the window, I need some additional narratives to look out for.
The first thing I am excited about is to see the Kraken play the spoiler against Western Conference playoff bubble teams. They have four games remaining against these bubble teams, all road games. They play Vegas next week and will face Los Angeles, St. Louis, and Minnesota in April. The biggest game will be this coming Thursday where the Kraken will look to disrupt the Golden Knights’ playoff expectations. It won’t ease the pain we received from Vegas’ last-second heroics at Climate Pledge on Tuesday, but it might give us something to smile about for the evening.
Additionally, I am excited to see which prospects get the call-up and how they compete on the big stage. We saw Wright and Winterton log three games in November, but I have to imagine they are even more prepared now with several more months of AHL games under their belt. Are there any others that might get the call?
Programing note. There will be no Monday Musings next week. My weekend is packed, and with a Sunday-evening home game, it is unlikely I will be able to carve out the time needed to produce anything worth reading.
If you have any questions or want me to dig into certain topics for the following week, let me know in the comments, and I will do my best get back to you or add to my backlog of research.
Despite the loss to the Winnipeg Jets on Friday night, it was still a good week for the Kraken with back-to-back road wins against Calgary and Winnipeg. The team is still giving itself a long shot at making the playoffs, and that is all we can hope for at this point.
The challenge has been that Nashville just keeps accumulating points, Los Angeles seems to be coming out of its funk, and Vegas just loaded up at the trade deadline. It was already a tough hill to climb, but this hill is seriously daunting. As unlikely as the playoffs seem at this point, epic comebacks or fairy-tale-type endings must start when it looks like all is lost, so maybe we will witness something special.
Trade deadline thoughts
The trade deadline came and went with a bit of drama in Seattle, but no real surprises. I mentioned in last week’s column that we had probably seen Alexander Wennberg wearing a Kraken jersey for the last time. The team ended up scratching Wennberg for their Monday and Tuesday back-to-back games and ultimately traded him to the New York Rangers on Wednesday. The return was a second-round pick and a conditional fourth-round pick. This was a fair return, but we had been hoping for a first-round selection after Sean Monahan brought a first-round return when Montreal traded him to Winnipeg in early February.
In retrospect, my assessment that he would warrant a first-round pick in return was evaluating what he meant to the Kraken, not so much what he would mean for a pursuing team. Wennberg led all forwards in time on ice and penalty-kill time for the Kraken. He also led the team in defensive-zone and short-handed face-offs. He would often be deployed against the opposing team’s best line to keep them in check.
Most teams pursuing a center at the trade deadline don’t need all those characteristics; they just need a few of them, hence lowering the expected return for Wennberg.
Eberle signs extension
The other bit of business around the trade deadline was the Eberle signing. This was largely expected by Sound Of Hockey, but we might not have expected the last-minute drama that implied he would be moved if a deal was not in place. The final contract was announced just hours before the trade deadline, giving us all a sigh of relief. The deal was for two years, carrying a $4.75 million average annual value. The AAV came in a bit higher than we expected but was likely inflated to avoid a third year in term.
Outside of the Wennberg trade and the Eberle signing, the Kraken had no other transactions during the trade deadline week. I was surprised that Justin Schultz wasn’t traded, with cup contenders looking to add some defensive depth, but as Darren Brown mentioned on the Sound Of Hockey Podcast, the injury to Vince Dunn may have complicated matters a bit.
Other Musings
The Jets shutout of Seattle on Friday night was the sixth time the Kraken have been shutout this season, which is the most they have been shutout in a single campaign (they were shut out five times in the inaugural season). Only the San Jose Sharks and Chicago Blackhawks have been shutout more this season, and both have been shut out nine times.
Jordan Eberle is scheduled to play in his 1000th NHL game on Tuesday night when the Kraken take on the Vegas Golden Knights. In addition to his 1000th game, he is also approaching several other milestone stat marks. He has 296 goals, 399 assists and 695 points.
During Ron Francis’s media availability on Friday, he spoke about Eberle’s character and leadership in the locker room as a contributing factor in re-signing the veteran winger for two years. During the inaugural season, Eberle was often the player that would be willing to speak to the media after several disappointing losses.
Eberle is probably responsible for minting more hockey fans in the Pacific Northwest than any other player with this goal. It still gives me chills.
This is the first time in Kraken history that I recall the team having a team goalie save percentage above .900. Both Joey Daccord and Philipp Grubauer have been outstanding since the turn of the calendar year with a collective .929 save percentage in 2024.
The Kraken have two more chances to get their first win on a Saturday night at home this season with the first opportunity this Saturday against Nashville. That’s a big game. I say they do it.
Kraken prospect David Goyette became the first player to log 100 points in the OHL this season. Goyette has been a very consistent producer all season, and it will be fun to see what he can do at the next level.
Ales Stezka (CVF/SEA) – The backup goalie for the Coachella Valley Firebirds had two wins in two days and posted a .958 save percentage. Stezka did not start the second game but had to jump in when Chris Driedger left the game feeling under the weather.
Ryan Winterton (CVF/SEA) – The Firebird winger has four goals in his last three games. He is tied with Shane Wright for fourth in rookie goal scoring in the AHL.
Colin Blackwell (CHI) – An old friend and original Kraken Expansion Draft pick, Colin Blackwell scored his first career hat trick for the Chicago Blackhawks on Sunday.
By now we realize one of the major challenges of this Kraken season is the lack of goal scoring, but it is also worth pointing out that they have reduced goals against.
The road ahead
After the first half of March, the Kraken schedule gets easier, and as long as they don’t fare too poorly against tough opponents during the first half of the month, they should at least make the stretch run interesting. With the help of some back-of-the-envelope math, I tried to forecast the wild card contenders’ final point projections.
I categorized all teams into three buckets, Playoff Bound, Bubble Teams, and out. I then figured each team’s points percentage against those categories of teams this season and assumed each team would stay on that points pace against each category of team for the remainder of the season.
Here are the results:
Of the teams listed, the Kraken have the easiest strength of schedule remaining, but the 89.2-point projection still doesn’t look encouraging for them. I also did not include the cluster of other teams that are currently tied with the Kraken in points.
There is no doubt that sneaking into the playoffs will be a huge challenge. Money Puck currently has the Kraken at an 18 percent chance of making the playoffs. A first step will be grabbing four out of six points this week with home games against two Western Conference bubble teams in Vegas (Tuesday) and Nashville (Saturday).
I don’t want to pin the whole season on one or two games, but considering where the Kraken are in the standings, the situation is dire. Two regulation wins against teams they are competing with for the wild card would give their chances a significant boost. We also cannot overlook the Washington Capitals who visit Climate Pledge Arena on Thursday.
For the last three seasons, all I have really asked for is that the team plays meaningful games in March. This week could not have more meaning in the season, so buckle up.
The Seattle Kraken fell short of the ultimatum I set in last week’s Monday Musings of grabbing five out of a possible six points, but I can’t be upset at the effort. The boys came away with gutsy wins against the Boston Bruins and Pittsburgh Penguins but fell short of gaining a point versus the Edmonton Oilers in a Saturday afternoon matinee.
This might have been the best three-game effort the Kraken have brought this season against some high-quality opponents. From top to bottom, the team is really bought in and showing the desperation to stay in the playoff hunt right now.
Unfortunately, the Kraken woke up on Monday nine points out of a wild card spot and again looking at a logjam of four teams they would need to climb over in the standings to get into the postseason. Getting in is looking less likely every day, but if the Kraken can play the rest of the season like this, I still think they have a shot.
Remaining schedule
The next four games will be the toughest four games remaining on the schedule. Even if they only manage four points of the eight available, the Kraken might be ok to stay in it as long as either the Los Angeles Kings or Nashville Predators start to lose a bit more than they win. Over the next four games, the Kraken have one game against the Calgary Flames, two against the Winnipeg Jets, and then one game against the Vegas Golden Knights. After those four games, the schedule gets easier with six out of the next eight games being against teams that are mostly eliminated from playoff contention.
Alex Wennberg
With the trade deadline this coming Friday, I worry this might be the last week we see Alex Wennberg wearing the Seattle Kraken jersey. Regular readers will know that I love Wennberg and what he has brought to this franchise. He was one of the first free agents to sign in Seattle before the team ever took the ice. I am always blown away with his play and patience with the puck, and I marvel at his footwork and board play.
I will never forget the below play during the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs last season. A lot of the highlights won’t show his contributions to the goal, but the whole sequence doesn’t happen without his board work.
He had another great play on Monday that will go underappreciated, when he gained the zone, and as five Bruins set up to defend, Wennberg delivered a soft pass to empty ice that Will Borgen. Borgen swiftly stepped into it for a one-timer that Oliver Bjorkstrand tipped by Linus Ullmark.
🚨 CUE THE MAESTRO! 🚨
Bjorkstrand tips a Borgen shot in with 5 minutes left!
If this is truly his last week or even season with the Seattle Kraken, he will be missed. He currently leads all Kraken forwards in ice time, and he plays on the power play, penalty kill, and is often deployed in key defensive situations.
Hard sell, soft sell, or hold
What the Kraken do at the trade deadline is still anyone’s guess. I found Pierre LeBrun’s take on what the Kraken might do with their two biggest assets on expiring deals humorous. LeBrun’s take was the Kraken could re-sign Wennberg and Jordan Eberle, or they might re-sign one of them, or they might do nothing. So, they could do anything.
We published a story on the topic a couple weeks ago, in case you want to read up on that and hear what the players themselves said about the situation.
There are three trade deadline scenarios that could play out:
A hard sell would be if the Kraken trade either Alexander Wennberg and/or Jordan Eberle.
A soft sell would be if the team traded Justin Schultz and/or Tomas Tatar
Holding would be doing nothing or moving a depth piece in the system.
The fate of what they do might come down to the back-to-back games to start this week. Two wins, and they might hold. Two losses, and I think a hard sell will be kicked into motion. I do think there is a way this team could make the playoffs even with a “soft-sell,” where maybe it trades only Schultz and has Ryker Evans slot in for him the rest of the way (just as an example).
Other Musings
After a successful goalie interference challenge last Monday against the Bruins, the Kraken are two for two in goalie interference challenges this season. The success rate for goalie challenges league wide is 63 percent.
The Boston game was the 17th overtime game of the season for Seattle. That tied the full-season total from 2022-23, so the next overtime game this season will mean the most OT games in a single season for the Kraken. Here is how overtime games have broken down by seasons.
If the Kraken start the week with two regulation losses, the season is probably cooked, and I would appreciate people checking in on me on Wednesday morning.
Tuesday’s game against the Winnipeg Jets will be the first time the Kraken square off against the Jets this season. Winnipeg is the only team in the league the Kraken have not faced this season, but they will play two in a row against them this week.
The Kraken are still winless at home on Saturdays this season. The loss to Edmonton pushed their Saturday home record to 0-5-2. The Kraken have two more Saturday home games remaining this season.
It is great to see Philipp Grubauer getting in a groove. He has a .942 save percentage with a 4-1-0 record since coming back from injury. Outside of last season’s playoffs, this is probably his best stretch of games he has played with the Kraken.
Player performances
Morgan Geekie (BOS) – The former Seattle Kraken and Tri-City American had his first career hat-trick against the Vegas Golden Knights on Thursday. We continue to root for Geekie as long as he isn’t playing against the Kraken.
Philipp Grubauer (SEA) – Grubauer had a .944 save percentage and a 2-1-0 record on the week including a shutout against the Penguins, his first of the season.
Jagger Firkus (MJW/SEA) and Carson Rehkopf (KIT/SEA) – Both players might be the most mentioned players in the Monday Musings for the season. Both Seattle Kraken prospects are having outstanding years for their respective clubs, and both eclipsed the 50-goal mark on Sunday.
For those that might have missed it, we had two outstanding guests on the Sound Of Hockey Podcast this week with Piper Shaw and Alison Lukan in studio. The episode was packed with tomfoolery and hijinks, but there was also plenty of Kraken insight, so give it a listen.
One thing Alison called out was Andre Burakovsky’s actions that helped with the Vince Dunn goal against Boston. The breakdown is in her below tweet.
2-2
Dunn with the equalizer but Burakovsky is so critical here – this comes right after a shift where he dangled right in front of Ullmark…BOS knows they have to defend him – he draws two and Dunn has plenty of space to send in the shot that gets in net. #SeaKrakenpic.twitter.com/exF4UYDOH0
Also, on the podcast we discussed a different framing of shots and shot attempts, called ‘shots on target.’ It’s just shots on goal, but in context of shot attempts, you could widen the lens to evaluate how many shot attempts actually get to the goalie. So, naturally, I investigated it.
I originally started just looking at percentage of shots on target, and that showed Seattle had the second-lowest percentage of shot attempts that are on target. When I saw Carolina below the Kraken, I felt it needed additional context since Carolina is one of the better teams in the league this season. I then added total shot attempts per game to help add more color to the story.
This was pulled together in about 30 minutes on Monday morning, so there is still a lot more to dig into here, but it is an interesting perspective to start evaluating some of the shooting performances across the NHL.
The week ahead
I have been implying the Kraken’s situation (in terms of making the playoffs) has been dire for a while. They have been staying afloat, but the Predators have really started to separate from the rest of the pack and currently have a nine-point advantage on the Kraken for the last playoff spot. Seattle still has two games in hand but will need to climb over a few teams, even if Nashville starts to falter. I am also ready to lock the Kings into a playoff spot at this point, which only leaves that Nashville spot.
The first half of March has the Kraken facing some quality opponents, and that kicks off this week with a game Monday against an equally desperate Calgary Flames team and two games against the Central Division leaders, the Winnipeg Jets. Anything less than four points and at least one against Calgary might sink these Kraken playoff dreams in season three. The team has been playing well and still shows a lot of compete that has me clinging to a few last shreds of hope.
As always, thank you for making it this far. If you have questions, thoughts, or reactions, feel free to leave a note in the comments and I will do my best to respond and engage.
In last week’s Monday Musings, I mentioned that the Seattle Kraken would need at least four out of six available points against Detroit, Vancouver, and Minnesota, with at least one point coming against the Wild. That did not happen.
It was looking good heading into Saturday night’s matchup against the Wild. The Kraken were coming off one of their more impressive games of the season with a 5-2 win over the Vancouver Canucks, and it seemed like this team was starting to play with the type of purpose that would be required to contend for one of the last playoff spots.
Heading into Saturday night, the Kraken were also 9-1-0 in the last 10 games in which they scored first, so when Vince Dunn made it 1-0 just 36 seconds in, there was a reason to feel confident. Alas, the Wild went on to score the next five goals and cruise to a 5-2 win over the Kraken.
It was not the effort you wanted to see for a very important game in the race for one of the wild card spots. On top of that, the Kings, Predators, and Flames all won to either extend their leads on the Kraken or, in the case of Calgary, jump over the Kraken in the standings.
I’ve said it before, and Darren said it in Three Takeaways: the challenge is not necessarily the point gap between the Kraken and the last wild card spot, it is the number of teams ahead of them. The Kraken are now seven points back of the Nashville Predators with a game in hand for that last playoff spot, but there are also three more teams (St. Louis, Minnesota, and Calgary) they would need to jump over to get back in. That is a tall task.
Despite the poor showing on Saturday night, the Kraken are currently sitting with about a 20-percent chance of making the playoffs. That is better than I would have expected their chances to be, but if a week from now, they are still sitting on a 20-percent chance, it is highly likely they will sell off some of their pending UFA’s at the March 8 trade deadline.
Power play pressure
The Kraken had a season-high five power play opportunities on Saturday and came up empty on all five. The power play has been playing well of late with a goal in each of the prior three games. Despite coming away with no goals against the Wild, there were several power-play opportunities where the Kraken maintained offensive-zone possession, and that created shot opportunities, so I’m not terribly concerned about this particular area.
I don’t have the data, but there were a couple opportunities where the Kraken maintained offensive possession for the first 90 or so seconds of the respective power plays. If the Kraken can maintain this type of pressure in the upcoming games, the goals will eventually follow. Sustained offensive pressure can force the opposing penalty-killing unit to fatigue, leading to defensive breakdowns and increased vulnerability to scoring chances.
Shot quantity and locations for top line
One thing that has been going well is the play and production of the reunited Matty Beniers, Jordan Eberle, and Jared McCann line. Coach Dave Hakstol reunited the trio after the loss to the Philadelphia Flyers on Feb. 10. That trio has at least one goal in each of the last five games and has a combined for 10 goals over that span.
Hakstol mentioned that they were struggling to get inside shot opportunities at the beginning of the season but are having much more success lately.
The rink map shows a lot more shot attempts inside over the last six games from that group compared to how they started the season.
That top line is also generating more shot attempts over the last six games compared to the start of the season, averaging over three more shot attempts per game.
Other Musings:
Marc-Andre Fleury is now 5-1-1 against the Seattle Kraken. Only Stuart Skinner has more wins against the Kraken in their franchise history. Edmonton comes to town Saturday. 😐
The Kraken are now 0-4-2 on Saturday games at Climate Pledge Arena this season. They have three more home Saturday games for the rest of the season.
The Kraken were shorthanded six times on Saturday night against the Wild, which was tied for second as the most times they have been shorthanded in a single game in franchise history. The Wild converted on two of the six opportunities. This was out of character for the Kraken, as they are generally one of the more disciplined teams in the league.
Saturday night’s game against the Wild is the 14th time the Seattle Kraken have been down by three goals in a game this season. They have lost all 63 games in franchise history when they have fallen behind by three goals. I keep telling myself that one day, a three-goal comeback will happen, and it will be epic when it does.
Somehow the Kraken have a 2-2-1 all-time record against Boston.
Oliver Bjorkstrand has not scored a goal in nine games, his longest drought of the season.
The Moose Jaw Warriors come though the Puget Sound over the weekend, which brings opportunities to see Kraken prospect Jagger Firkus. He will be in Everett on Friday night, and on Saturday, you can do the double-header with the Edmonton Oilers at the Kraken at 1 pm, then Moose Jaw at the Seattle Thunderbirds down in Kent at 7 pm.
Speaking of prospects, Scott Wheeler from The Athletic published the Seattle Kraken’s prospect rankings a little over a week ago. There weren’t a lot of surprises. Shane Wright was ranked No. 1, Carson Rehkopf No. 2, and Jagger Firkus was No. 3. If you have a subscription, it’s a fun read; just remember prospects are like chips on a roulette table. Most prospects face long odds, and there are probably only a couple of real winners in there.
Player performances
David Goyette (SBY) – Goyette has an active 14-game point streak and has four goals and three assists over his last three games.
Carson Rehkopf (KIT) – Rehkopf continues to score in bunches in the OHL. He had nine points over three games, including the below six-point game on Saturday.
Andrei Loshko (ROU) – I’ve mentioned Andrei Loshko before, but the fourth-round pick from the 2023 NHL Draft tends to fly under the radar. He had three goals in two games for the Rouyn-Noranda Huskies in the QMJHL.
You don’t see that everyday
I saw the stick break at the game on Saturday, but I didn’t see McCann’s ninja like skills until the next day.
With the NHL trade deadline fast approaching, the Kraken find themselves at a pivotal juncture in their season. This feels like a do-or-die type week. To remain in contention for a playoff spot, they must secure at least five out of the six points available in their three games this week. Failure to do so will realistically eliminate any postseason hopes and could trigger selling assets at the deadline. It will not be easy, as the Kraken face Boston on Monday, Pittsburgh on Thursday, and Edmonton on Saturday.
Here is a look at the rest of the wild card contenders schedule this week:
There are several games around the league with wild card contenders facing off against each other. That further illustrates why it is so challenging to jump over multiple teams, as one of the two will get two points, and there’s always the chance of an OT loser point.
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The Seattle Kraken have been on an incredible run since my last Monday musings on Dec. 18. They went 6-0-1 in that span and looked very similar to the 100-point team we saw last season. This group is confident and appears to be having a bit of fun out there. But what has changed?
One significant factor is the defensive mindset and attention to detail. Darren Brown wrote an excellent piece breaking down the changes that transpired over the last month or so. If you haven’t read it yet, go check it out. There is no denying that Joey Daccord has been great in net, but the team has also been very effective at limiting quality shots in front of him.
While the team hasn’t been scoring a ton over the last 10 games, averaging 3.2 goals per game since the point streak started on Dec. 12 (roughly league average over that timeframe), they are allowing just 1.3 goals against, which is the lowest in the NHL.
Depth scoring is back
The team might not be scoring as much as they were last season, but production from up and down the lineup is back. 17 players have scored goals since the Kraken went on their point streak, with Eeli Tolvanen and Kailer Yamamoto having the most goals in that stretch with four each. It seems like every night there is a new group of players scoring for the Kraken, a hallmark of last season’s success.
Scoring first
One thing I have observed lately is the Kraken’s ability to score first and then hold leads, which it struggled with earlier in the campaign. At the beginning of the season, in games where they scored first, the Kraken had a losing record. During the months of October and November, they scored first in 12 games, winning just four of those, equating to a league-worst .333 win percentage when scoring the opening goal.
Fast forward to the point streak, where they have scored first in eight out of the 10 games and have a winning percentage of .875. Not only are they scoring first more frequently, but they are also winning those games at a much higher rate than at the beginning of the season.
A quick note on the Winter Classic
The Winter Classic happened over a week ago, but I continue to think about what an absolute perfect day it was to showcase how much this city has embraced this team in two and a half seasons. I always had conviction for this sport in this city, but this team continues to exceed my expectations off the ice. It has been an extraordinary journey, and hats off to all the people that have worked for this team, directly and indirectly, leading to the Winter Classic being such a special day.
Other musings
There have been 27 teams that had exactly 41 points at the 39-game mark since the 2005-06 season. Of those teams, 11 qualified for the Stanley Cup Playoffs. That’s about a 41-percent chance. If you had told me last month that the Kraken would have a 41-percent chance of making the playoffs, I would have thought you were crazy.
Now that Andre Burakovsky is back, it seems coach Dave Hakstol is still not settled on where he fits into the lineup. Burakovsky has mostly played on the fourth line with Kailer Yamamoto and Tye Kartye since his return, but he has also spent time with Alex Wennberg and Brandon Tanev.
The lines will get even more mixed up once Jaden Schwartz comes back, which we think could happen Tuesday. He is traveling with the team on this road trip, implying his return is imminent.
It’s hard to even say from the below which is the “fourth line,” but we believe the line with Jared McCann and Burakovsky was listed at the bottom of the line chart for Seattle at practice on Saturday. If this lineup sticks for Tuesday’s game at Buffalo, that’s a heckuva fourth line. It will be interesting to see how Hakstol deploys a very deep forward corps.
I have really enjoyed watching Tomas Tatar on the Kraken. I have no idea why it wasn’t working in Colorado, but he clearly still has a lot of skill. He scored his third goal with the Kraken last Friday against Ottawa in his eighth game. He only had one goal in 27 games with Colorado this season.
THAT'S SOME SPICY TUNA! 🚨
Dunn hits Eberle at the blue line, who makes a one-touch pass to spring Tomas Tatar for his third goal as a #SeaKraken.
I’m looking forward to Chris Driedger getting a start or two on this road trip. It was great to see him win and perform well in his first start since 2022 when he beat the Calgary Flames on Dec. 27. Being that he is in the last year of his current contract, I would like to see him showcase his talent for potential landing spots next season.
In case you did not know, Driedger will require waivers if the Kraken send him down to Coachella Valley when Philipp Grubauer returns from injury.
There are seven teams that could knock the Kraken out of a Western Conference wild card spot at the end of the season. Edmonton and Minnesota are the two teams I am most concerned about at this point. It is too early for it, but I am already scoreboard watching. I loved seeing Chicago beat Calgary in regulation on Sunday, thanks to former Kraken Colin Blackwell scoring two goals.
With so many Kraken prospects in the tournament, I enjoyed the IIHF World Junior Championship even more than normal this year. It was fun to watch all of them, but Jani Nyman and Carson Rehkopf were the standouts for me. I imagine Nyman could be playing in North America next year, and Rehkopf likely has one more year in the OHL.
Speaking of Rehkopf, he didn’t waste much time getting back into the swing of things in Kitchener.
Joey Daccord (SEA) – Joey is 5-0-1 since Dec. 18 and has the highest save percentage in the league over that stretch. The team in front of him has played better defensively, but Joey has been coming up huge.
Ales Stezka (CVF/SEA) – Stezka notched his first AHL shutout on Saturday night against the Abbotsford Canucks. He has a .980 save percentage over his last two games.
Eduard Sale (CZE/SEA) – The Kraken’s first-round selection from the 2023 NHL Draft had seven points in seven games during the World Junior Championship. He still has one more year of eligibility to play in the WJC, so it will be interesting to see if he returns next season.
Chart of the week
As mentioned above, a key factor contributing to turning this season around is the emphasis on defense and limiting goals against. The chart illustrates the reduction in goals allowed by the Kraken this season and compares it to other teams.
Nyman had numerous highlights in the WJC, and one of the standout moments was his shootout goal that secured the victory for Finland over Sweden.
The week ahead
The Kraken embark on a six-game road trip, with the initial three matchups appearing relatively favorable. Seattle faces Buffalo on Tuesday, Washington on Thursday, and Columbus on Saturday. The team should aim to secure at least four points in those three. Key areas to watch include Burakovsky’s deployment in the lineup, Schwartz’s return, and the performance of the power play.
While there is currently no significant concern about the power play, the team has only scored one goal in eight opportunities over the last four games. The Kraken haven’t appeared particularly threatening with the man advantage lately, and it would be beneficial to see an improvement before it becomes an issue.
Feel free to leave any questions, feedback, or areas of exploration in the comment section. I appreciate your support.
For the second time this season, the Seattle Kraken have lost four games in a row and are falling farther out of the playoff picture. Let’s hope this is the darkest of days for the 2023-24 Seattle Kraken. The week of games started out poorly when the Kraken lost in regulation to the lowly Chicago Blackhawks, and it somehow got worse with a shutout loss to Anton Forsberg and the Ottawa Senators on Saturday night. This was supposed to be the week where the Kraken make up points in the standings against some weaker opponents, but it was not to be.
Sandwiched between those two brutal losses was a decent effort against the Toronto Maple Leafs where the Kraken scored two goals in the third period to force overtime in a game they eventually lost in a shootout. The team showed resilience by battling back, and it felt like they could use that to carry momentum into Saturday against Ottawa. They did not.
All is not lost… yet
There is still plenty of time left in the season for the boys to claw back into a playoff position with a string of victories, but this team has shown no momentum whatsoever. The longest win streak by the Kraken this season is just two games. The 2022-23 Kraken had win streaks of five and seven games at this point in the season.
There are only so many times that you can blame a loss on facing a strong goalie or getting a couple unlucky bounces before you realize there might be some bigger problems at play. The penalty kill has been very inconsistent, the team’s shooting percentage is one of the worst in the league, and the goaltending has struggled throughout the season.
The “third line”
I always hate referring to the Yanni Gourde/Oliver Bjorkstrand/Eeli Tolvanen line as the third line for the Kraken. It’s partially driven by the special teams play of all of them, but it is not uncommon to see that line with the most collective minutes played. That third line is consistently playing well, but the Kraken need Gourde and Bjorkstrand to score some goals.
Both are playing great hockey but can’t seem to find the back of the net. Collectively, they’ve had 30 shots on goal over the last four games but no goals to show for it. Neither of them needs to change the way they are playing; I just think they are getting a bit of bad luck right now that will turn around in due course. How about a Bjorkstrand hat trick next week? I say he does it.
The Kraken fourth line
Due to the injuries to Jaden Schwartz, Brandon Tanev, and Andre Burakovsky this season, coach Dave Hakstol is minimizing the usage of the fourth line. Last season it was common for the fourth line to get 12-14 minutes a night, but as of late, the fourth-line wingers are getting between six and nine minutes of ice time. Pierre-Edouard Bellemare is averaging right around 10 minutes a night, largely because of his time on the penalty kill.
Part of this is situational. The Kraken are behind more frequently this season and need to get some of their goal scorers more ice time by taking it away from the fourth line.
Last year’s strength was Seattle’s depth with Ryan Donato, Daniel Sprong, and Morgan Geekie often contributing with goals from the fourth line. It is not a perfect analysis, but the three of them averaged .65 goals per game. Tanev, Kailer Yamamoto, and Bellemare together are averaging .43 goals per game, but that’s not an accurate picture. Tanev has been hurt a good chunk of the season, and injuries farther up the lineup have Yamamoto slotting in on other lines. That has left the fourth line to be made up by a hodgepodge of fill-ins like Devin Shore, Andrew Poturalski, Marián Studenič, and now Max McCormick.
Other musings:
Several of the World Junior Championship teams should start announcing their pre-tournament camp rosters this week. I expect Seattle Kraken prospects Jagger Firkus and Carson Rehkopf to be on the initial camp roster for Team Canada. Defenseman Ty Nelson could be another candidate, but he might be a bit of a long shot to make the final squad. Though Shane Wright is still eligible, he is not expected to play in the WJC this year.
It is unlikely that the Chicago Blackhawks would loan former Seattle Thunderbird Kevin Korchinski to Team Canada. The last time the Blackhawks let one of their prospects play in the World Junior Championship, Kirby Dach broke his wrist and missed a majority of his 2020-21 season.
Chris Driedger had a shutout for the Firebirds on Friday night against the Ontario Reign. In 13 games, he has a .916 save percentage in the AHL.
Wright has at least one point in 11 of his 15 AHL games this season for the Coachella Valley Firebirds. My prediction at the beginning of the season was that Shane would get 20 to 30 games in the AHL and would eventually be called up by the Kraken to spend of the rest of the season in the NHL.
Alex Wennberg’s assist on the game-tying goal Thursday night against the Toronto Maple Leafs is a perfect encapsulation of why he is such a good player and flies under the radar. He literally entered the offensive zone with the puck while the rest of the Kraken players were changing behind the play. There were four Maple Leafs in the zone with Wennberg but he managed to keep the puck and eventually find Jared McCann for this beauty of a goal. No highlights will show him entering the zone for a 1-on-4.
Wennberg is on his last year of his current contract and could be a trade candidate for the Kraken if they are out of the playoff picture. He doesn’t get nearly enough credit for the attributes he brings to the game because a lot of people just look at his scoring.
Player performance
Eduard Sale (BAR/SEA) – The Seattle Kraken first-round pick from the most recent NHL Entry Draft has practically flown off the radar this season but still has 21 points in 23 games for the Barrie Colts in the OHL. Expect him to represent Czechia in the World Juniors tournament.
Conor Geekie (WEN/ARI) – The Arizona Coyotes prospect playing for the Wenatchee Wild has put up 12 points in three games, including four unanswered goals against Portland on Saturday. He has points in eight straight games.
Mathew Barzal (NYI) – The former Seattle Thunderbird had seven points in two games last week, including this overtime winner against the Hurricanes.
In one of the pre-game media availabilities last week, Coach Hakstol got a question about defensive scoring that implied that is why the team has struggled to score this season. So, I looked it up.
So, yes, the defense has not contributed as much as it did at this point last season, but neither has the forward group. (Andre Burakovsky had nine goals at this point last season.)
Goal of the week
Seattle Kraken sixth-round selection in the 2023 NHL Entry Draft, Zeb Forsfjall, scored the overtime game winner for Skellefteå on Saturday.
It seems like I am saying this every week, but the Kraken face another critical week, and the opponents don’t look that intimidating, though all of them have a better record than the Kraken. Seattle starts the week with a game Monday against the Montreal Canadiens to try to salvage this road trip before returning home for six games in 10 days. The Kraken have got to figure out a way to link more than two wins together if they want any hope of making the playoffs.
It would be great if the Kraken can get Burakovsky back for this stretch of games. He was back in a regular blue jersey at morning skate Monday, per our best friend, Alison Lukan, but is not expected to play against the Habs. The success of the season may depend on how Burakovsky plays when he comes back.
A question for the readers
What happens first, a shutout by a Seattle Kraken goalie, a hat trick by a Kraken player, or Shane Wright gets called up from Coachella?
