Welcome to another edition of my Monday Musings and the first of the 2023-24 season. On this series, I throw out random thoughts and half-baked theories from the previous week and give a look at what’s happening in the new week and beyond.
Kraken thoughts
The boys lost to the Golden Knights, Predators, and Blues to start the season. We knew the Kraken’s first 10 games of the 2023-24 season were going to be a challenge, but we did not expect to start the season with a winless road trip. In these first 10 games, the Kraken will end up facing seven 2022-23 playoff teams, so one would have hoped they could bank some wins against non-playoff teams from last season, like St. Louis and Nashville. But here we are with a 0-2-1 record with the Avalanche, Hurricanes, and Rangers coming to town.
Sample size
I don’t know who needs to hear this, but three games is not even close to a significant sample size to evaluate the outcome of the season. I have seen a few pessimistic viewpoints already, but as a reminder, the team went 1-2-2 in the first five games of last season. If the Kraken manage to get two out of the possible six points this week, they will basically be at the same point as last season.
One of the lowest moments of last season was after the Kraken lost to the Chicago Blackhawks on Oct. 23. There hadn’t been much optimism anyway heading into 2022-23, but nobody expected/wanted a repeat of 2021-22. That game was memorable because the Kraken squandered a third period lead by giving up back-to-back goals within 20 seconds of each other. Even the most level-headed fans were on the doom and gloom train. The Kraken then won six out of the next seven and never looked back. I am not trying to be overly optimistic here but am just giving you context around why I am still patient.
A fair question is how many games is considered significant? To try to answer that question I looked at different game markers from last season to see if there is a spot where teams start to settle into their playoff position. Here is a look at all teams’ records by points percentage at the five-game and ten-game mark.
As you might be able to tell, the five-game mark seems massively out of sync with how teams finished the season, and it wasn’t until the 10-game mark when playoff teams started to rise up the standings.
Penalty kill
The penalty kill looks rock solid so far and hasn’t allowed a power-play goal over 11 manpower disadvantage situations in the first three games of the season. There were only two different times last season when the Kraken did not allow a power-play goal over a three-game stretch. They appear to be picking up right where they left off last season.
Although the Kraken ranked 21st in penalty kill percentage in 2022-23, they made huge strides in the second half of the season, posting an 84.3 percent kill rate after Jan. 1. That put them in the top five in the league over that same timeframe.
The only significant change to the penalty kill from the second half of last season is the arrival of Pierre-Edouard Bellemare. He is known for his ability to kill penalties, and that has been abundantly clear in his three games with the Kraken so far. The only wrinkle is the injury to Brandon Tanev in Game 1. Tanev led the forward group in PK time on ice last season, so even though the group has done well without him, he is still a key factor, and the sooner he gets back the better.
If the Kraken can maintain a top-five penalty kill this season, that will be huge positive for their goal differential and could more than make up for the scoring losses of Ryan Donato and Daniel Sprong over the offseason.
Other Kraken thoughts
I’ve seen a lot of people referencing a “regression to the mean,” but if you are going to cite statistical terms, make sure you acknowledge “sample size.” Otherwise, you are guilty of “confirmation bias.”
If you are expecting a regression, I would like to know who you think will regress. (Jared McCann, Oliver Bjorkstrand, Andre Burakovsky?)
The Kraken’s 2-1 shootout loss to the Blues on Saturday night was the ninth shootout game in franchise history. They have won three shootout games, but all three of those wins came in the inaugural season when they won three out of four. It was interesting to see Matty Beniers and Oliver Bjorkstrand take shots Saturday, though both were stopped by Jordan Binnington.
For Kraken fans, the three-on-three overtime versus the Blues was a delight to see. The Kraken seemed to have the puck for all but about 30 seconds of the extra frame. Last season the Kraken lost their first three games that ended in overtime. After one practice working on it, the team would end up winning 9 of the next 10 games it had that ended in overtime. The Kraken are pretty good in overtime… just not the shootout.
I must assume the fact that no one has been called up from the Coachella Valley Firebirds is a pretty good indicator that Tanev’s injury is not terribly severe and that we should expect him sooner rather than later.
The Firebirds dropped their season opener on Friday with a 3-2 loss to the Bakersfield Condors. He did not get on the score sheet, but word around the campfire is Shane Wright played especially well.
I really like what I am seeing out of the Kraken’s fourth line so far. Although they did not log a lot of minutes on Saturday, they put together a couple shifts where they had St. Louis penned up in its zone and seemed to shift momentum.
As much as I like the fourth line performance to date, there are moments that Tye Kartye has looked out of place. This might be a feeling-out period for him with the NHL speed and/or a fourth-line role, or it might be a sign he is not quite ready for the NHL full-time and will be better served logging more minutes down in the AHL.
Will Cale Makar get booed every time he touches the puck on Tuesday? If I have a vote, and technically I do, I say yes.
The Kraken have never won a home opener.
Player performance
Mariah Fujimagari (KLW) – Made 14 saves on 17 shots to become the first woman to record a victory in a preseason game for the Kalamazoo Wings of the ECHL. You can read more of her story here.
Philipp Grubauer/Joey Daccord (SEA) – Sample size aside, both goalies have looked good in their respective games. Collectively they have a .942 save percentage and have four goals above expected. Yeah, yeah… sample size. It’s early, I know.
Carson Rehkopf (KIT/SEA) – The friend of the Sound Of Hockey Podcast and Seattle Kraken prospect had five points over two games last week, including a hat trick on Friday night against the Barrie Colts. The kid is making it look easy.
When the Kraken scored their first power-play goal of the season against the St. Louis Blues on Saturday night, it also marked their first lead of the season. Here is a breakdown of the percentage of game time teams have been leading this season.
I guess things could be worse.
Kraken themes for the week ahead
The Kraken could be facing one of their toughest three-game stretches of the season when they face the Avalanche, Hurricanes, and Rangers for their first homestand. A target goal would be four points, and I would be happy with three. During the regular season, they went 3-3-1 against those teams in 2022-23 and of course beat Colorado in the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs last spring.
One thing I would love to see this season is for the Kraken to establish a true home-ice advantage. Last season the Kraken were better away from Climate Pledge Arena than inside it.
I don’t even have a theory on why there is such a discrepancy between their home and away records, which makes me hope it is just a fluke and will not be a normal behavior. I would love to see their home games start off right with two wins this week, regardless of the opponent.
Another order of business I would like to see cleaned up is Seattle’s scoring. The .667 average goals scored over the three games is the lowest in franchise history for a three-game stretch. With so many posts hit and a disallowed goal in the last game, it feels like the luck could turn at any moment.
If you have made it this far, I appreciate you… and if you didn’t make it to the bottom, I still appreciate you. If you have any other topics, questions, or feedback you would like me to consider, leave a note in the comments section.
The boys from the Seattle Kraken have been giving fans the full gamut of Stanley Cup Playoff experiences. After Dallas handed the Kraken two consecutive losses in Games 4 and 5 of the second-round matchup, the Kraken bounced back with a roller coaster of a win in Game 6.
Among us fans, there was some genuine concern going into Saturday’s Game 6 that the Kraken magic had finally run out. Instead, Seattle came out flying and overcame every bump in the road, earning a 6-3 win. It was a night that no fan in the building will forget.
Of course, that only set the stage for the game Monday; another Game 7 in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. In my mind, there is nothing greater in all of sports. The anxiety and suspense during Game 7 is like nothing else I feel in sports. It can be exhilarating and miserable at the exact same time. I could tell you to just enjoy it, but that is a fool’s errand, so I am going to tell you to just experience it however you see fit.
The full Stanley Cup Playoff experience
Making the playoffs is one thing, but the Kraken are giving new hockey fans the full spectrum of what the Stanley Cup Playoffs are all about. From Jordan Eberle’s overtime winner in Game 4 against the Avalanche to forcing a Game 7 against Dallas, these playoffs could not have been scripted any better for Seattle. It is heartwarming to see all the people talking about the Kraken right now, and this was part of my dream when I started the NHLtoSeattle grassroots campaign over 12 years ago. I am a product of playoff hockey, and I am sure the Kraken are minting new hockey fans with every passing game.
The legend of Tye Kartye continues to grow
Darren and I have talked about the legend of Tye Kartye several times on our YouTube “show,” Kraken Takeaways, but it is worth mentioning again; Tye Kartye is having a phenomenal debut for the Kraken, netting three goals over his nine playoff games so far.
He also had a huge hit on Ryan Suter in Game 6 that seemed to fire up the fans in the building. Clearly, coach Dave Hakstol is trusting this undrafted 22-year-old rookie by giving him more and more minutes. His 15+ minutes of ice time in Game 6 was the most he has played in a game this postseason. He was on the ice just under nine minutes in his debut in Game 5 of Round 1 and has seen his ice time increase steadily since then.
One of the lowlights of the 6-3 victory was the three response goals that Seattle allowed. There is no clear definition of a “response goal,” but for our purposes, we are going to define a response goal as a goal by an opposing team within two minutes of a goal being scored.
The Kraken allowed three response goals against them on Saturday. It is a problem that I have no clue how to solve and something we saw during the regular season as well.
Other Kraken Musings:
The Kraken’s defensive corps is a collective 12-1 in Game 7’s in the Stanley Cup Playoffs over their careers.
A year ago to the day, the Dallas Stars lost Game 7 to the Calgary Flames.
When Vegas made the Stanley Cup Final in 2018, the following year USA Hockey saw a 60 percent increase in memberships in Nevada. We should expect a large increase in local participation next season, as these playoffs will inspire thousands of people, young and old, to pick up the sport.
One thing that should not be overlooked is the Stanley Cup Playoff experience on this Kraken roster. Beyond just the cliche “Stanley Cup rings in the room,” plenty of guys have other playoff experience. Outside of the six guys with Stanley Cup rings, Jordan Eberle, Adam Larsson, Alex Wennberg, and Jamie Oleksiak all have significant playoff experience to draw from as they continue on this journey.
The Kraken power play looked much improved in Game 6 and scored one goal. The Kraken managed nine total shots on net during the power play, which is the most power play shots they’ve had in one game during these playoffs.
I am not ready to start thinking about next season, but Tye Kartye could fill in nicely to replace the probable departure of Daniel Sprong next season.
The Coachella Valley Firebirds got a split in the first two games of the third round of the AHL Calder Cup Playoffs against the Calgary Wranglers. They are playing a five-game series in which they played Games 1 and 2 in Calgary and will play Games 3, 4, and 5 at home. Game 3 is tonight and is at the same time the Kraken play their Game 7.
Kraken themes for the week ahead
Win and move on.
The players have earned this opportunity to be just one win away from the Western Conference Finals. It is a do or die moment for this group, and now is their opportunity to take it.
Player Performance / Stick Taps
Jordan Eberle (SEA) – Eberle has eight points in the six games this series with five goals. Kole Lind (CVF/SEA) – Lind has 15 points over 10 games in the AHL’s Calder Cup Playoffs, including three goals in his last two games. Brad Lambert (SEA-WHL) – Lambert has 23 points over 18 games in the WHL Playoffs and had two goals in Game 2 of the WHL Championship Series for the Seattle Thunderbirds. The T-Birds are currently tied 1-1 with the Winnipeg Ice in that series after losing Game 1 and winning Game 2. They will play the next three at home, Tuesday, Wednesday, and Friday.
Chart of the Week
It has been the theme all season; the Kraken’s strength is their depth. Eighteen different players have scored in the Stanley Cup Playoffs, the most by any postseason team. Of regulars in the lineup, only Ryan Donato has not scored a goal for the Kraken.
If you have any questions, comments, or observations, don’t hesitate to leave something in the comments, and I will do my best to get back to you. See you on the other side of Game 7!
I am a product of playoff hockey, so when the Seattle Kraken punched their ticket to the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs last week, it meant a bit more to me than just seeing my favorite team compete in the postseason. The Stanley Cup Playoffs are known for throwing gasoline on an existing fire, which is particularly important for a new NHL market. Playoffs become appointment television for hardcore, casual, and new fans alike. It will be a jumping off point into hockey for a quarter of a million sports fans. This playoff appearance will have a huge impact on the Seattle fan base and will expedite the growth of the game in the region.
Speaking of the playoffs, I have always had a soft spot for the first players who came to Seattle before the first season. Specifically, Adam Larsson, Jamie Oleksiak, and Chris Driedger opted out of free agency and chose Seattle by signing contracts during the Expansion Draft negotiation window. Similarly, Alex Wennberg, Jaden Schwartz and Philipp Grubauer signed with Seattle just a week later in 2021 free agency. I would like to think that clinching the franchise first playoff berth was just a little more meaningful to them.
The underrated play of Alex Wennberg
Alexander Wennberg is one of the unsung heroes of the Seattle Kraken this season. I’ve always enjoyed his slick puck handling skills in tight spaces, and it was not until I read this article by Alison Lukan that I really changed the way I watch him. It felt like he never gave up the puck over the last week, despite commonly in high-traffic areas of the ice. It turns out that he did have one giveaway in the Chicago game, but that was his only giveaway the entire month of April. In the article, Alison talked about the takeaway-giveaway differential, so I looked at the numbers across the entire league to see where Wenny and the other boys stood.
The numbers match the eye test. Next time you watch a game, just keep an eye on No. 21 for the Kraken; he has been a treat to watch this season.
Shane Wright headed to Coachella Valley
The Windsor Spitfires were eliminated from the OHL playoffs last week, which marks the end of Shane Wright’s OHL season. As expected, the Kraken assigned Wright to the Coachella Valley Firebirds on Monday. This will be an excellent opportunity for Wright to continue to develop while playing against higher-caliber players in the AHL.
The bigger question comes next season.
Wright will be just 19 years old, and according to the CHL-NHL development agreement, he will need to either play in the NHL or return to the OHL vs playing in the AHL next season. However, the development agreement states that 19-year-olds that play four seasons in their respective league can be assigned to the AHL. Wright would have played four seasons, but the OHL did not have a season in 2020-21.
The Kraken could probably get that requirement reduced to three seasons because the OHL did not offer a season for Wright to play. Another wrinkle is the agreement defines a season as playing 25 games or more. Wright only played 24 in 2022-23. The entire discussion could be moot as Wright likely makes the Kraken out of training camp and could remain with the team all season.
In the meantime, seeing what Shane Wright does in the AHL in their remaining games and into the postseason will be fun.
Other Kraken musings:
Last Saturday’s 7-3 win over the Chicago Blackhawks was the fourth time this season that the Kraken at seven or more players scored goals in one game.
That Chicago Blackhawks game reminded me of the lowest moment of the Kraken season. It was October 23rd when the Kraken allowed two goals in the final 10 minutes of a game to lose in regulation to the Blackhawks. The Kraken were 2-3-2 after that game and the feeling was this team was on the path to repeat the 2021-22 season.
Watching the last few games has been the least amount of stress I have felt all season. That will change next week.
If you were in the building for either of the last two home games, you could already feel the buildup for the playoffs. The energy is palpable, and it will escalate in the playoffs.
Tremendous forecheck by Beniers. McCann joins the battle, gains possession and returns the favor – setting up Eberle who's all alone net front. pic.twitter.com/SGTcgjX0YK
With two games remaining on the schedule, the goal should be to stay healthy and focused. A couple of scenarios could still determine who the Kraken play in the first round, but the team should keep rolling as long as they play. The common narrative is that no one wants to play the Oilers, but I think that is a defeatist mentality. This team should not be afraid of playing against anyone. The only team they did not beat this season was the Tampa Bay Lightning, so they have literally proven they can beat anyone in the Western Conference, including the Colorado Avalanche, twice.
Player Performance /Stick Taps
Jared McCann (SEA) – Scored his 40th goal of the season last night and has 10 points in his last five games.
Jordan Eberle (SEA) – Four goals and four assists in his last five games.
Kyle Jackson (NBB/SEA) – The Seattle Kraken’s seventh-round selection from the 2022 NHL entry draft had three goals and three assists in the North Bay Batallion’s opening-round series victory over the Mississauga Steelheads in the OHL playoffs.
Goal of the week
Who doesn’t love a big cat breakaway goal?
NHL Video Highlight – Adam Larsson scores against the Chicago Blackhawks to make it 4-2. pic.twitter.com/mc5QUOJVzi
— Seattle Kraken Gamebot (@KrakenGameBot) April 9, 2023
Tremendous forecheck by Beniers. McCann joins the battle, gains possession and returns the favor – setting up Eberle who's all alone net front. pic.twitter.com/SGTcgjX0YK
The Kraken logged their 100th point in the standings last night with a 4-1 victory over the Coyotes. This is a 40-point increase over last season. This is only the 6th time since the league went to an 82-game schedule that an NHL team has improved by 40 points season-over-season.
Thank you all for reading, and if you have any topics you want me to explore, please leave them in the comments section below.
It has been a good road trip as the Kraken have taken care of business with five out of six points in the standings so far, including a dominant performance in Nashville Saturday. That 7-2 win created even more space between the Kraken and Predators in the standings. The win over Nashville might have been the most convincing win of the trip, but I feel the Dallas win to kick things off was the most impressive.
The Dallas game
Just over a week prior to the Tuesday night Dallas game, the Stars dominated the Kraken at Climate Pledge Arena in a 5-2 win. Philipp Grubauer left that game with an illness and was replaced by Martin Jones. It was one of those “bottom of the rollercoaster” moments that had me skip a breath when I looked at the standings. When the boys rolled into Dallas, I was more than a little nervous.
Adding more fuel to my nervousness, we found out Joey Daccord would be getting the start in net instead of Jones, as Grubauer was still recovering from his illness. That game also featured another late six-on-five goal against the Kraken, this one coming with just 0.7 left in regulation, forcing overtime for the Stars. It had all the makings of another squandered opportunity for a Kraken win. To the boys’ credit, they were able to bounce back with a silky overtime victory on a stretch pass to Adam Larsson. That’s right, a stretch pass to Adam Larsson.
NEVER A DOUBT! LARSSON WINS IT IN OT! 🚨
Incredible bank pass by McCann to send the Big Cat in on a breakaway. Great patience, puck protection, and hands by Larsson to tuck it behind Oettinger.
Mathematically, the Nashville Predators appeared to be the biggest threat to the Kraken’s playoff chances. But realistically, the Preds are cooked, which is why I do not think Saturday’s 7-2 beat down was as impressive as the Dallas game. The Predators were missing Roman Josi and Filip Forsberg, not to mention they traded away Mattias Ekholm and Tanner Jeannot at the trade deadline. Seattle should have expected to take at least three out of four points in Nashville, and they took care of business there.
Leading or trailing
The Kraken have scored the first goal in each of the last three games, and they have five out of six points in those games. The prior five games, the first goal of the game was scored by the opponent, and they were just 1-3-1 in those contests. In his post-game press conference after last Saturday’s Edmonton game, coach Dave Hakstol alluded to the fact that it is hard to play from behind in this league.
This is obviously an oversimplification and is more of a symptom than a cause. It is something to keep an eye on in future games.
Other Kraken musings:
Since January, the math to get into the playoffs has always been on the Kraken’s side, but I will not sleep easy until they clinch. That said, I did sleep a little easier on Saturday night.
The Kraken scored seven goals against Predators goaltender Juuse Saros on Saturday. This is the first time in his career he has allowed seven goals in a game.
Morgan Geekie moved to wing versus Nashville on Saturday. He seemed to fit in well with Jaden Schwartz and Alex Wennberg, but this is still a placeholder for when Andre Burakovsky comes back.
Even though Geekie plays limited minutes when centering the fourth line, he is an important center to have in the lineup. He leads the team in face-off percentage since Jan. 1 and is the only right-handed center on the Kraken’s roster.
The Kraken have not trailed in the last three games.
Joey Daccord has done everything the Kraken organization has asked of him since they selected him from Ottawa in the Expansion Draft. He deserved the opportunity in Dallas, and it was nice to see him get a second start and put in another solid performance in the first Nashville game.
I was lucky enough to make the trip to watch both Nashville games in person this week. I have been to Nashville several times and have thoroughly enjoyed it every time. If you are a hockey fan, put Nashville on your list to catch a game someday; you will not regret it.
There can be a case made for Jared McCann being the most underrated player in the league right now. He notched his 35th goal of the season Saturday and has 16 points over 12 games in the month of March. We all know him well, but he just does not get talked about nearly enough, and the coolest thing about it, he does not care. I love seeing his interviews because he seems to only care about winning.
Daniel Sprong leads the NHL in 5v5 scoring per 60 with 3.36 goals per 60.
The Kraken have one of the worst differentials between their home and away records, and I have no explanation for it.
Kraken themes for the week ahead
This will not be an easy week for the Kraken. Monday, the Kraken are in Minnesota for a tough matchup against a hot team, and the Los Angeles Kings visit Climate Pledge on Saturday. Both the Wild and the Kings have a lot to play for as far as playoff seeding impacts, and both teams are possible first-round matchups for the Kraken.
On Monday, I want to see how well the Kraken compete against a Wild team playing excellent hockey without its best player in the lineup, Kirill Kaprizov.
The Kraken-Kings game on Saturday should be fun. I feel the Kraken stack up well with the Kings and envision an excellent Stanley Cup Playoff matchup, should those teams square off in rounds one or two. In the second game of the season, the same matchup got a bit nasty. While I am not ready to declare the Kings as the No. 1 rivalry with the Kraken, they are one of the frontrunners. A playoff matchup could cement the rivalry. Saturday night could be a preview of that playoff matchup and could get some of the nastiness we might see in the playoffs.
Sandwiched between the Wild game in Minnesota tonight and the Kings game on Saturday is the Ducks at Climate Pledge on Thursday. There are no automatic wins in hockey, especially this time of year, but it would be nice to see the Kraken take care of business again, facing one of the worst teams in the league.
Player Performance / Stick Taps
Daniel Sprong (SEA) – Sprong has three goals in the last three games on the alleged fourth line. With 19 goals on the season, he is making a convincing argument to stay in the lineup, even when Burakovsky returns.
Carson Soucy (SEA) – Soucy had only two assists over the last three games, but I felt he played extremely well in the two games in Nashville, shutting down the Predators and making good decisions with the puck in the Kraken defensive zone.
Shane Wright (SEA/WIN) – Wright has a nine-game point streak playing for the Windsor Spitfires, with 18 points in that stretch to wrap up the regular season in the OHL. Windsor ended the season as the top seed of the Western Conference and will face the Kitchener Rangers in the first round of the playoffs. That series will kick off Thursday.
Goal of the week
Another Seattle Kraken prospect is having a heck of a season. Fifth-round selection from the 2021 NHL Entry Draft, Jacob Melanson notched his 50th goal of the season with this snipe.
On the final day of the @QMJHL season, @PhoenixSherbroo forward and #SeaKraken prospect Jacob Melanson reached the 5⃣0⃣-goal mark!
Jacob Melanson a marqué son 50e but de la saison, samedi, lors de la dernière journée du calendrier régulier! 👏🏻 pic.twitter.com/8QmosLTFhg
Melanson has already signed his entry-level contract with the Kraken and will more than likely be playing in Coachella Valley next season.
Chart of the week
The game against the Dallas Stars featured another goal against for the Kraken with the opposing team’s goalie pulled, which caused a bit of a “here-we-go-again” vibe on Twitter. The Kraken ended up winning the game, which seemed to cool the angst, but it made me want to pull the numbers on how common these goals are against the Kraken.
As you can see, the Kraken are one of the worst in the league at a pure volume standpoint of allowing a goal with the opposing goalie pulled. Important to note, though, this stat is not a perfect proxy for really evaluating the Kraken’s play when the opposing team has an extra skater, since it does not provide a rate of allowing goals. The Kraken could be leading more one-goal games, which will cause more opportunity for opposing teams to pull their goalie. To simplify it more, the Kraken could be leading in the third period more frequently than other teams, and this would be considered a good thing. I might dig into this a bit deeper in a future post to really evaluate the impact here.
Those are your Monday Musings. If there are any questions, thoughts, or areas you want me to explore in future musings, leave a note in the comments section. Thank you reading. Let’s go Kraken!
The Musings post is usually published on Mondays, but with a big Kraken win on Sunday, we thought it might be good to let the victory content breathe a bit.
Kraken Thoughts
When I wrote the Musings last week, I was a little nervous. The boys had just lost three games in a row, and the playoff cushion was starting to shrink. My message was, “Don’t panic,” but if I am going to be honest, my hand was on the panic button.
As an act of defiance, the boys would go a perfect four-for-four on their road trip that ended with a thrilling come-from-behind overtime win against the defending Stanley Cup champion Colorado Avalanche. Meanwhile, the Calgary Flames got just one point out of a possible six during the same time span. Now, it is Nashville who finds itself just on the outside of the playoff cut with several games in hand on Winnipeg and Edmonton. The Oilers and Jets currently sit in the Western Conference wild card spots.
What a difference a week makes.
Getting back to the Kraken games, all four were either tied or just a one-goal game entering the last minute of regulation play. Even in victory, the first two games of the road trip against St. Louis and Detroit felt a little shaky. Several defensive breakdowns kept those games closer than they should have been, but to the team’s credit, Seattle buckled down and figured out ways to win. It wasn’t until the third game of the week, against Columbus, did the Kraken look like the team we have come to expect this season.
Philipp Grubauer
Most regular readers of this column will know that I am a Philipp Grubauer supporter. I punched the numbers on my abacus and feel that all signs point to Grubi being the better goalie right now. Heading into last week, Grubi was coming off back-to-back losses to Boston and Toronto where he allowed 10 goals over those two games. They weren’t great performances by any statistical measure, but being how well the Bruins and Leafs played those nights, I am not sure Dominik Hasek at the peak of his powers would have made a difference in those games for the Kraken. It made me think that Grubi had been getting the more challenging starts this season, so I looked it up.
The data bears it out. On average, Grubi plays the better teams in the NHL and has faced just five teams under a .500 points percentage. That said, Seattle needs Grubauer to steal some games against the best teams in the league. I do not feel Sunday’s win against the Avalanche would constitute stealing one, but it was a big win against a quality opponent.
Trade deadline
It would have been nice to see the Kraken add a middle-six forward as a stop gap for Andre Burakovsky being out of the lineup and as insurance for any additional injuries down the road. The trade deadline is a time when teams overpay for players, though, and Ron Francis is more disciplined than a lot of us would be in the same position. The team still has draft picks and will have salary cap flexibility rolling into next season, so you wonder if the Kraken might be willing to pull some bigger levers this offseason.
Other Kraken musings:
Francis said Andre Burakovsky was back on the ice for the first time since his injury on Feb. 7. The team has missed him in the lineup. At the time of his injury, he was leading the Kraken in points, and although it has been better lately, his absence is most notable on the power play.
As an indicator of how teams tend to overpay during the trade deadline, the Kraken obtained Oliver Bjorkstrand for just a third- and fourth-round draft pick last summer. First-round picks were being passed around the league like candy last week for players inferior to Bjorkstrand.
Bjorkstrand’s shooting percentage is 12.5 percent since Jan. 1, compared to 5.4 percent prior to New Year’s Day. This is the Bjorkstrand we expected.
Jaden Schwartz had five points over the last three games, and his forecheck to get the puck for Brandon Tanev’s tying goal Sunday could have been the biggest play of the week.
Speaking of big plays, how about Grubauer’s save in Detroit? You never know how a goal there could have impacted the outcome of the game.
Chris Driedger is now 2-1-0 in three starts for the Coachella Valley Firebirds with a .907 save percentage. I believe we will see him get some starts for the Kraken before the end of the season.
If the Kraken finish the season with just 50 percent of the points available, they will finish the season with 97 points. The current forecasted playoff cut is right around 93 points.
Really enjoyed Alison Lukan’s article on the Kraken website on the different possession styles of Bjorkstrand, Wennberg, and Gourde who are all in the league top-10 in takeaways minus giveaways.
Kraken themes for the week ahead
The theme of the week should be getting points where you can, because this week kicks off the toughest 10-game stretch the Kraken will play the rest of the season. Anaheim, Ottawa, and Dallas have been relatively hot teams as of late and will each have their own motivations to beat the Kraken. Getting three out of six points will be fine, but if they can get more, excellent. If the Kraken can get the consistent goaltending from Grubauer (or Jones) and special teams stays hot, at least three points should be expected. The back-to-back games against Dallas should be a benchmark game to see how ready both teams are for the playoffs.
What normally would be thought of as an easy game Tuesday against Anaheim, the Ducks have won four out of their last five games with their only loss in that stretch being an overtime loss to the Washington Capitals. If there is anything the Feb. 20 San Jose game has shown us, you cannot take a night off against a lesser opponent and expect to win.
Thursday does not get any easier with the Ottawa Senators coming to town. Prior to the loss last night, the Senators won five games in a row and will be fighting for their lives to get into the playoffs.
Stick Taps / Player Performance
Philipp Grubauer (SEA) – three wins over four days with a .921 save percentage.
Kyle Jackson (NBB/SEA) – The unsigned seventh-round pick from the 2022 NHL Entry Draft has a five-game point streak for the North Bay Battalion in the OHL.
Jared McCann (SEA) – He had four goals and three assists over his last five games, including his 30th goal of the season, becoming the first Seattle Kraken to hit the 30-goal mark in a season.
Did you realize Jared McCann has scored 30 goals already this season? The former Canuck leads all skaters in shooting impact at even strength. pic.twitter.com/mbdXP4i58i
There has been a lot of talk about how well the Kraken special teams is playing right now. Here is a look at the outcomes of games depending on who wins the special teams in the game.
If you have any questions or comments on Monday Musings, please leave them below, and I will get back to you as soon as I can.
I am not ready to hit the panic button, but it is hard not to feel a bit nervous about the play of the Kraken since the All-Star break. The Kraken have just seven points out of a possible 20 available over the 10 games since the break. Their playoff cushion has dwindled down to just four points over the fifth-place Calgary Flames.
There was a stretch in these 10 games where it felt like the Kraken had righted the ship with a shootout loss to Winnipeg and impressive wins against Philadelphia and Detroit. Then along came a game against the San Jose Sharks where the Kraken lost 4-0 with Timo Meier and Tomas Hertl both out of the lineup. What was most disturbing about that loss was the lifeless energy the Kraken brought to the game, as a lack of urgency is rare to see out of this team. Had they won that Sharks game, the fan base would probably be at ease with the next two losses to two of the best teams in the league, Boston and Toronto.
The Boston Bruins game on Thursday night could have been the best game ever played in Climate Pledge Arena. The fans were amped, and the boys were buzzing. In the end, the Kraken lost a heartbreaker 6-5, allowing Boston’s sixth goal with less than two minutes remaining in the game. Matty Beniers scored just 40 seconds into the game that really set the tone for the night. It was a back-and-forth affair that the Kraken led 5-4 with four minutes remaining in the game. Every player from the ‘perfection line’ scored for the Bruins, and Brad Marchand showed us some of his old tricks. Despite the loss, I felt good about the Kraken leaving CPA that night.
Sunday’s matinee was a different story.
I had high hopes but relatively low expectations for the Kraken versus Toronto on Sunday afternoon. Several people mentioned to me over the weekend that they really needed a win versus the Maple Leafs, and to some extent, that was true, but I felt putting a ‘must win’ label on a game against one of the best teams in the league was a bit unfair. The Leafs came as advertised. At one time the Leafs were outshooting the Kraken 20-6. The Kraken eventually logged 27 shots on net, but most of the offerings were from outside the high-danger area, and the Kraken fell 5-1.
I do not think the Kraken played particularly bad, but the Leafs just looked so good. As impressive as Toronto looked offensively, I could not help but notice how they tied up Kraken players defensively around the net. I am sure there is a way to measure this, but it looked like defensively, the Leafs limited rebound opportunities and high-danger shot attempts. This was most noticeable in the third period where the Kraken managed just one high-danger chance.
Kraken thoughts
Goalie situation
In case there was any question, Philipp Grubauer should remain the starting goalie. Despite the nine goals allowed against Boston and Toronto, there was only one of the goals that he probably should have saved. It was a tall order for Grubi to get back-to-back starts against Boston and Toronto, but that is what the team will need out of a starting goalie in the playoffs. He did give them an opportunity to win the Boston game, and even if the Kraken had Andrei Vasilevskiy in net against the Leafs, they still wouldn’t have won that game.
Penalty kill
One of the bright spots for the Kraken as of late is the penalty kill. The team has not allowed a power-play goal in six games and has played consistently above league average since Jan. 1.
The penalty kill did plague the Kraken earlier in the season, so it is nice to see this turn around a bit.
Other Kraken musings:
I’m probably stating the obvious, but it feels like the Kraken really miss Andre Burakovsky. At the time of his injury, he was leading the Kraken in points and was a big part of the power play.
As of right now, the Kraken have the easiest schedule remaining out of any team in the league. Here is a look at the Western Conference playoff contenders.
Apart from the Dallas Stars, the Kraken have beaten all Western Conference playoff teams at least once this season. In the case of the Stars, the Kraken have yet to play them this season.
I don’t know if I should be happy or sad that all the Eastern Conference teams seem to be loading up in advance of the NHL Trade Deadline. That means first-round draft picks are being transferred to the Western Conference.
I’m really eager to see how Chris Driedger’s time in Coachella Valley goes. He could start as early as Monday for the Firebirds, but I would not expect him in net until Friday or Saturday. In case you missed it, Driedger was put on waivers last week, cleared, and was then assigned to Coachella Valley to continue his rehabilitation after tearing his ACL last spring.
It does not fit in the Kraken news category, but the Seattle Thunderbirds have won 10 straight games, and the Everett Silvertips clinched a playoff berth over the weekend. If you get the chance, check those teams out. It is a fun environment to watch elite-level hockey at a reasonable price.
Finally, the news of AT&T getting out of the Regional Sports Network business will not impact ROOT Sports anytime soon. But the broader RSN landscape is changing as customers move from traditional MVPDs to vMVPD, where RSNs are traditionally not available.
Kraken themes for the week ahead
The Kraken have four games over the next seven days, and although it won’t be the easiest of road trips, there are winnable games on the horizon against opponents like St. Louis, Detroit, and Columbus before Seattle ends the trip against a surging Colorado Avalanche team. I don’t like to speak in absolutes, but the Kraken need at least four of the eight points on this trip. Get a win in either St. Louis or Detroit and just avoid a letdown in Columbus. If they can get two wins in the first three games, any points in Colorado is gravy. Meanwhile, Calgary plays Boston, Toronto, and Minnesota this week. By next Monday, we could have a good idea how this playoff chase will really look.
More goaltending
As much as I still believe Grubauer is the starting goalie, that doesn’t mean coach Dave Hakstol agrees, so it will be really interesting to see how he deploys his netminders over this next week. With back-to-back games on Thursday and Friday, it is guaranteed that both Grubauer and Martin Jones will get work. Regardless of who Hakstol leans on, the Kraken need one of the two to play well through this stretch.
Trade deadline
Despite the challenges of the last ten games, I do not think the Kraken do much this trade deadline. They might move a player or get another depth piece for the playoff push, but I anticipate them being relatively quiet. I’ve seen too many teams make big trades at the deadline, only for the acquired player to underwhelm in the playoffs.
As fans, we are susceptible to survivor bias, meaning we only remember the trade deadline acquisitions of the eventual champion, not all the other transactions of teams that might not have even made it out of the first round. If the Kraken do add players at the deadline, I would suspect they might offer up a second-round draft pick or two. Based on some of the deals this week, which have involved first-round picks, it’s hard to predict what kind of value Seattle might be able to get back for that.
Player Performance / Stick Taps
TJ Oshie (WSH) – Mt. Vernon, Wash., native TJ Oshie played his 500th game as a Capital and got his first Gordie Howe hat trick.
Tye Kartye (CVF/SEA) – Kartye has goals in each of his last three games and is having a great season in his first pro year, playing for the Coachella Valley Firebirds. He might not get the call up this season, but I think this undrafted forward has a good shot at playing for the Kraken in the next year or so.
Matty Beniers (SEA) – Have you heard of this guy before? After a 10-game pointless streak, Matty has put up six points over his last five games for the Kraken.
Every time I see a goalie take a shot at the net, I giggle, and I love that he took the shot while the Bruins were only up by one versus a lower-risk two-goal lead.
Chart of the week
In researching Burakovsky’s impact to the lineup, I started to look at players’ ability to draw penalties versus take penalties. It may not be surprising, but Matty has drawn 17 penalties and only taken one.
If you have any questions or comments on Monday Musings, please leave them below, and I will get back to you as soon as I can. In the meantime, buckle-up for plenty of trade deadline talk and some really meaningful games.
