A few days ago, we stepped through all the “Eastern Conference” teams (yes, we recognize there are no conferences this season) and identified some of the major storylines that could impact the Seattle Kraken Expansion Draft in July.
Today, we look to the teams that typically play in the conference formally known as the Western Conference.
Anaheim Ducks
The Ducks added Kevin Shattenkirk this offseason, and if he plays to his expected level, Anaheim might be forced to protect four defensemen (Shattenkirk, Cam Fowler, Hampus Lindholm, and Josh Manson) in the Expansion Draft. This could expose Max Jones, Isac Lundestrom, and Adam Henrique.
Arizona Coyotes
Adin Hill (G) of the Arizona Coyotes
The best thing to come out of Arizona in the Expansion Draft will likely be a goalie —specifically, Adin Hill or Darcy Kuemper. The question is: do the Coyotes hold onto Kuemper or do they trade him before the Expansion Draft?
Kuemper was one of the top goalies in the league last year — his .928 save percentage was third in the NHL among goalies with at least 20 games played — so the thought of trading him seems a bit outrageous. However, the Coyotes are thin on draft picks and prospects after the Taylor Hall trade and the sanctions taken by the league last season for illegally working out prospects.
Calgary Flames
The burning question is if Milan Lucic will waive his no-move clause or not. If he does not waive his NMC, the Flames could expose Mikael Backlund and Sam Bennett which will create good options in the forward position. There is also a scenario where Lucic waives his no-move clause and Calgary subsequently offers draft picks to the Kraken to take Lucic and his $6 million dollar cap hit.
Chicago Blackhawks
Similar to Lucic’s situation in Calgary, the same can be asked about Brent Seabrook in Chicago. Will he waive his no-move clause for the Expansion Draft? If he does, this does not mean Seattle will take him. We are projecting Connor Murphy, Lucas Carlsson, and Calvin De Haan to all be exposed by Chicago, but if Seabrook waives his NMC, one of them will be protected. This question should be answered in April.
Colorado Avalanche
Tyson Jost #17 – Colorado Avalanche
Any uncertainty in Colorado surrounds pending UFAs Brandon Saad, Gabriel Landeskog, and to a lesser extent Philipp Grubauer. If any or all those players are signed to a contract extension before the Expansion Draft, they will be protected. Signing Saad and Landeskog will expose young center Tyson Jost, a name we have had circled for a while. Signing Grubauer would eliminate the opportunity for the Kraken to talk with him during the exclusive (to the Kraken) UFA discussion window before the expansion selections are due to the league. If they were to convince Grubauer to sign with Seattle, he would be the Kraken’s starting goalie in year one.
Dallas Stars
Dallas’ player pool is thin as far as the Expansion Draft. The ideal scenario is that veteran Stars, Anton Khudobin and Joe Pavelski, continue to play at a level beyond their age would suggest. They might create an opportunity for Seattle to select either of these players in the Expansion Draft and immediately trade them to another team that could use their veteran presence.
Edmonton Oilers
The Oilers’ approach to the protected list in the Expansion Draft hinges on Oscar Klefbom’s status. He is already out for the season, but it’s worth wondering if the Oilers will still protect him. If they do opt to protect him, it is a safe assumption that they will protect four defensemen (Ethan Bear, Darnell Nurse, Caleb Jones, & Klefbom) which will force them to only protect four forwards. This would most likely expose Jesse Puljujarvi and Tyler Benson. Whichever player of that duo shows the most promise this year would be a good candidate for the Kraken.
Los Angeles Kings
The biggest flier for the Seattle Kraken to consider off the LA Kings roster would be Lias Andersson. The road to the NHL for the No. 7 overall draft pick of the 2017 NHL Entry Draft has been anything but smooth. The change of scenery to LA might be just what he needs but there is no guarantee the Kings protect him. If Andersson shows promise this season, the Kings might feel the need to protect him in lieu of protecting Blake Lizotte or Austin Wagner.
Minnesota Wild
Matt Dumba has been rumored to be on the trading block all offseason. The Wild already possess three defensemen with no-move clauses that they are required to protect in the Expansion Draft. Protecting a fourth defenseman in Dumba would expose a young promising forward like Jordan Greenway. The general thought is that instead of losing him in the Expansion Draft, they trade him. A Dumba trade would greatly impact who is available for the Kraken.
Nashville Predators
Ryan Johansen’s productivity has dipped, and the 28-year-old center has not lived up to his $8 million cap hit. If Johansen sees another down year, there is a scenario where the Predators expose the former Portland Winterhawk. Even if he is exposed, it does not mean Seattle will necessarily select him in the Expansion Draft.
A bad year by Johansen could open the door for a possible side deal.
San Jose Sharks
There is speculation that San Jose might expose Brent Burns in the Expansion Draft, but the players I am keeping an eye on are Bonney Lake’s Dylan Gambrell and former Seattle Thunderbird Alexander True. Gambrell has a significant opportunity to establish himself as an everyday NHL forward while True, who is a year younger than Gambrell, might spend another season in the AHL. Both players will have a lot to prove regardless of where they play, and Ron Francis might consider taking one of these younger depth forwards for the Kraken.
St. Louis Blues
Vladimir Tarasenko was placed on long-term injured reserve and is going to be re-evaluated in May. That is pretty much the whole season. If Tarasenko does not play during this truncated campaign, the Blues could expose Tarasenko to dare Ron Francis to take a chance on the injury prone winger. Exposing him will enable St. Louis to protect Sammy Blais or Ivan Barbashev.
Vancouver Canucks
I have seen a lot of people penciling in Braden Holtby as the Seattle Kraken’s starting goalie in the inaugural season, but I am not so sure. Holtby will need to show significant improvement from his career worst .897 save percentage last year before Seattle considers selecting him out of Vancouver. Keep an eye on him this season.
Vegas Golden Knights
The Golden Knights are not participants in the Expansion Draft, but they could certainly be a major participant in the trade market that would impact other teams’ protected lists. Keep an eye on any big moves that involve Vegas.
Winnipeg Jets
The Jets have yet to re-sign restricted free agent and former first-round draft pick, Jack Roslovic. He was projected as a bubble protected/exposed player in the upcoming Expansion Draft, but now he could be on the move. No matter what, Roslovic’s status will impact the Expansion Draft scenarios coming out of Winnipeg.
The Seattle Kraken almost surely will have a chance at a veteran ready to contribute right away from the Washington Capitals in the Expansion Draft.
The Capitals already possessed a roster in win-now mode with several veteran contributors. And then, for good measure, the Capitals signed 43-year-old behemoth Zdeno Chara to a one-year contract. What does this have to do with Expansion? Well, not much, but we just wanted to mention that they signed a 43-year-old behemoth.
Offseason wild cards and assumptions
Alex Ovechkin’s 13-year mega contract runs out after this upcoming season and the Russian superstar will be a free agent for the first time since he was 22 years old. He’s expressed interest in ending his NHL career in Washington before then ending his overall hockey career with Moscow Dynamo, the KHL team he played for growing up in Russia.
Even so, the Capitals are going to leave Ovechkin unprotected during the 2021 Expansion Draft.
Yes, I know that sounds crazy. But hear me out.
With no expressed interest in playing for anyone other than the Capitals in the NHL, there’s no rush for Ovechkin and the Capitals to agree to a contract before next summer’s free agency window and can instead devise a handshake agreement.
It’s a bit of a risk because Ovechkin can turn around and sign with the Kraken in the 48-hour negotiating window before the Expansion Draft, which is highly unlikely, but it’s one Washington may be willing to take to protect a player it wouldn’t be able to keep otherwise.
And besides, handshake deals happen quite often in the NHL and this particular deal behooves both parties.
Outside of Ovechkin, the Capitals have defenseman Trevor van Riemsdyk and forward Conor Sheary as unrestricted free agents, and perhaps more importantly, three key pending restricted free agents — forward Jakub Vrana, 24, defenseman Jonas Siegenthaler, 23, and goaltender Ilya Samsonov, 23.
Protected list
Forwards:
Niklas Backstrom (lock)
Evgeny Kuznetsov (lock)
Tom Wilson (lock)
Lars Eller
Jakub Vrana
Richard Panik
Daniel Sprong
Defensemen:
John Carlson
Dmitry Orlov
Jonas Siegenthaler
Goaltender:
Ilya Samsonov
The final two forward spots and the last defenseman spot will be areas to watch for Kraken fans.
For now, we’ll go with Sprong — a 23-year-old winger that figures to stick on the Capitals roster this season — and Panik. That leaves TJ Oshie unprotected, and we’ll get into that later.
The final spot on the blueline comes down to Siegenthaler and Brenden Dillon, and the former’s youth is the tiebreaker. Even though the Capitals signed Dillon, a former Seattle Thunderbird great, to a four-year contract worth $3.9 million per season, both players have similar roles and impacts on the ice as bruising defensemen that can play on the penalty kill.
Washington Capitals Expansion Draft candidates for Seattle
Forwards:
TJ Oshie
Garrett Pilon
Defensemen:
Brenden Dillon
Nick Jensen
Justin Schultz
Alright, let’s address the elephant in the room.
Oshie was born in Mount Vernon and grew up in Snohomish County before moving to Warroad High School in Minnesota to ignite his hockey development. But before that, Oshie developed through the Seattle Junior Hockey Association. Oshie, 34, is perhaps the Pacific Northwest’s foremost local product and would be a hometown favorite immediately if the Kraken selected him.
Along with Oshie’s local ties, his $5.75 average annual value contract could be appealing to the Kraken, who need to surpass the $60.24 million salary cap floor. There are far worse players than Oshie that can help Seattle reach that threshold.
As far as his impact on the ice, Oshie’s profile is a little tricky to evaluate. The winger’s corsi-for percentage at 5-on-5 has hovered just over 50 percent every year since Washington brought him over from St. Louis, which is average. He’s proven to be a lethal offensive player for a lot of his career, but his 10.6 expected goals above replacement last season, per Evolving Hockey, is his lowest since 2013-14.
It leaves one to wonder how many uber-productive years are in Oshie’s future, but for now, Oshie can be counted on as a consistent offensive contributor.
If Seattle wanted another younger forward, there happens to be another option with local ties that will be available in the Expansion Draft from the Washington Capitals.
Garrett Pilon, who the Everett Silvertips traded for at the WHL trade deadline during their Western Conference championship season in 2017-18, put up good numbers with the American Hockey League’s Hershey Bears last season. The 22-year-old, who is a restricted free agent this upcoming offseason, doesn’t likely project as a top-six forward at the highest level, but he may be an NHL contributor soon.
Dillon would be a good option for Seattle if he’s available, not just for his local ties, but because of his sound game in the defensive zone and because he’s signed through the 2023-24 season.
Justin Schultz, 30, a second-pairing type of rearguard with offensive flair, is another option. Nick Jensen, 30, would also be worth a look for Seattle.
Side deal scenarios
With a litany of salary cap issues looming, the Capitals are potentially ripe for a side deal.
CapFriendly.com projects Washington to possess just over $12 million of cap space entering the next offseason. Assuming Ovechkin demands a contract with an AAV of around $9-10 million, Washington will have around only $5 million to sign Vrana, Siegenthaler, and Samsonov.
That probably won’t get it done.
The Capitals don’t have a very deep farm system — The Athletic’s Corey Pronman ranked Washington No. 30 in his organizational rankings this offseason — but perhaps it might not take much to ensure Seattle selects a player like Oshie, who the Kraken may be interested in taking anyway, and his cap hit off the books.
Of course, this all may be for not if Ovechkin signs a backloaded deal or Washington uses long-term injured reserve to save cap room. But until then, the Capitals need to do some cap gymnastics or risk losing a promising young piece.
Previous Sound Of Hockey Expansion Draft Team Previews
As the NHL season kicks off this week, here are some storylines Seattle Kraken fans should keep an eye on with the teams from the conference formerly known as the Eastern Conference.
Boston Bruins
The Bruins do not have many questions leading up to the Expansion Draft this summer. The Kraken will probably focus on evaluating the skill level of some of the younger options in that organization.
Specifically, Trent Frederic, 22, and Jakub Zboril, 23, who played 99 percent of their games in the AHL last season.
Buffalo Sabres
Is Buffalo a playoff team? Once we know the answer to that, we will get a better read on what they do with Taylor Hall. Hall signed a one-year deal this summer, but if Buffalo is out of the playoff race around the trade deadline, the Sabres might salvage his value by trading him for draft picks. Assuming Hall does not sign a contract extension in Buffalo (or with another team), he won’t be protected and the Kraken will have the opportunity to sign Hall during the club’s 48-hour exclusive free agent negotiating window.
Carolina Hurricanes
I have a huge bias for young players when looking at the Expansion Draft and two names that I have had circled for a long time are Morgan Geekie and Jake Bean.
Both players are 22. Geekie played two games in the NHL last year while Bean was in the AHL the entire season. The question is how much do we see them this year and what type of steps do they take in their professional careers?
In case things don’t go well for either of these guys, Haydn Fleury, 24, is the next one on deck.
Dubois projects to be an elite center in the NHL, but he recently expressed interest in getting traded out of Columbus. If they do trade him, the questions become who they get in return and how does that player impact who they protect in the Expansion Draft.
Detroit Red Wings
Detroit is not a team Kraken fans should be overly excited about right now, but one to monitor for the Expansion Draft is how good Danny DeKeyser looks since undergoing back surgery early in the 2019-20 season.
Florida Panthers
There aren’t a whole lot of open questions in Florida. If I am isolating a few players to put on a Kraken watch list in Florida it is Markus Nutivaara and MacKenzie Weegar. At least one of them will be exposed in the Expansion Draft.
Montreal Canadiens
Montreal possesses a glut of quality forwards on expiring contracts. Joel Armia, Phillip Danault, and Tomas Tatar are all notable forwards that Montreal would love to keep beyond this season. If the Canadiens sign any of these players to extensions, they will want to protect them in the Expansion Draft.
I love the former Everett Silvertip and I am absolutely rooting for him to have a great season. Staying healthy has been a huge challenge for the 27-year-old blue liner, though. If he stays healthy and has a solid season, he could be protected in New Jersey which will expose PK Subban, though Subban also needs to have a bit of a rebound season to be considered by the Kraken next summer.
Additionally, Kyle Palmieri is set to be an unrestricted free agent next summer, and if they resign him, it will impact the Devils protected list.
New York Islanders
Do the Islanders expose Josh Bailey or Jordan Eberle? And what kind of season do we see out of Otto Koivula and Kieffer Bellows? It is likely that only one of the four players mentioned can be protected, so we should keep an eye on all of them.
New York Rangers
Will Ryan Strome maintain his playing from last year when he was close to a point-per-game player? Or will he play at a level more in line with his career? And not that this has anything to do with the Kraken, but we’re all curious to see how Alexis Lafreniere fares as a rookie.
Ottawa Senators
The Senators won’t offer a large selection to choose from come the Expansion Draft, but they might have a goalie of interest. They added Matt Murray from Pittsburgh this offseason, and if he delivers on his expectations, he will be the protected netminder. That would expose Joey Daccord, a highly respected 24-year-old goalie prospect, for the Kraken.
Philadelphia Flyers
Nolan Patrick, who missed the entire 2019-20 season due to migraine issues, is forecasted as one of the protected forwards in Philadelphia. He is at camp and is reportedly moving full steam ahead for the coming season, but there is still questions about whether he can fight off the health issues that kept him out last year.
If he is healthy and can perform, then he will be protected, exposing Nicolas Aube-Kubel or Jakub Voracek.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Pittsburgh will more than likely expose two of the three forwards of Brandon Tanev, Teddy Blueger, or Jared McCann. Ideally all of them have great years to provide Seattle quality options.
Tampa Bay Lightning
If the Lighting protect four defensemen in the Expansion Draft it will come down to their confidence in 2017 first-round draft pick, Cal Foote. Foote is expected to make his NHL debut this year and should be able to showcase his long-term potential in the NHL.
If Foote lives up to expectations, the Lightning will protect him with fellow defensemen Victor Hedman, Mikhail Sergachev, and Erik Cernak. Protecting four defensemen will force the Lightning to expose forwards Ondrej Palat, Yanni Gourde, and Alexander Volkov.
Toronto Maple Leafs
There is not much debate on who the Maple Leafs will protect in the Expansion Draft. Travis Dermot should be exposed on defense. In the forward group, Kraken fans might want to keep an eye on pending UFA Jimmy Vesey to see if he shows any promise for Seattle.
Washington Capitals
Alex Ovechkin is on the last year of his contract with the Capitals. There is no doubt in my mind that Ovi will play in Washington next season, but it seems to me they could save a valuable spot in their protected list by waiting for him to get to free agency and then signing him.
Those are just some of the storylines to keep an eye on in the Eastern Conference this year.
The storm surges, the Bunch of Jerks t-shirts, and the snarky twitter feed all make the Carolina Hurricanes a fun team. But beyond all that, they happen to also be a good hockey team. After a nine-year absence from the playoffs, they’ve qualified the last two seasons and made a run to the conference finals in 2019. They have depth which means they will have a tough time protecting everyone from the Seattle Kraken at the NHL Expansion Draft.
Don Waddell is the general manager who will have to sort it out and make a tough choice because he’s going to lose a quality player. Seattle general manager Ron Francis is familiar with the Hurricanes roster. He drafted a number of these guys and it will be interesting to see which of his former players he brings to Seattle.
The Hurricanes have under a million dollars in cap space and have some important players who are going to be re-signed as both Andrei Svechnikov and Dougie Hamilton’s contacts expire after the coming season. Both of those players are key pieces and most likely will be re-signed, but that means Carolina will have to shed some salary, and the Expansion Draft could be a way to do so.
Assumptions
Svechnikov is a lock to be re-signed by the Hurricanes. He’s one of the brightest up-and-coming players in the NHL and for this exercise we’ll assume that he will be re-signed and protected. Hamilton is most likely in the same boat. There is a remote chance that Waddell could risk waiting to sign him until after the Expansion Draft. That would be interesting as Seattle would have the ability to negotiate him prior to the draft and the Hurricanes could end up losing him.
That scenario is unlikely however, so we’ll assume that Hamilton is not available to the Kraken.
Carolina Hurricanes Expansion Draft protected list
Forwards
The Hurricanes have a decision to make with former Portland Winterhawk Nino Niederreiter. He has two years left on a contract that earns him $5.4 million per season and that money could go towards re-signing other, more valuable players. Niederreiter, 28, didn’t produce last year, only scoring 11 goals. That’s a low number for a guy who’s perennially flirting with the 20-goal mark.
That doesn’t mean he’s done, however. Niederreiter posted one of his career-worst shooting percentages (9.6 %) and could rebound. He still drove play for the Hurricanes and was a 56-percent Corsi-for player, meaning Carolina typically benefited while he was on the ice. A rebound season is within reach for Niederreiter and if he does perform, he’ll play himself into protection.
What Waddell does with Niederreiter will impact the final forwards that the Carolina Hurricanes will protect for the Expansion Draft.
If they leave Niederreiter exposed, they will likely protect Jesper Fast. For our purposes here, we’ll protect Niederreiter but it will be a position to watch.
Hurricanes protected forwards
Sebastian Aho
Jordan Staal (NMC)
Andrei Svechnikov
Teuvo Teravainen
Warren Foegele
Vincent Trocheck
Nino Niederreiter
Defense
The Carolina Hurricanes blue line is the most intriguing area when it comes to looking at the Expansion Draft. Jacob Slavin is the one player in this group that is certain to be protected, but Carolina has a lot of depth here, which will benefit Seattle.
If Hamilton is re-signed he will also be a lock. However, if the Hurricanes don’t protect him then Jake Gardiner will join Brett Pesce as protected defenseman.
Hurricanes protected defensemen
Jacob Slavin
Brett Pesce
Jake Gardiner
Goalie
The Hurricanes return James Reimer and Petr Mrazek as the goalie tandem this season. Those two have left a lot to be desired and its surprising that Carolina did not add a goalie this offseason.
Entering the new season, Carolina has no goaltenders signed beyond 2020-2021. They will need to expose a goalie so obviously there are moves to make. Mrazek is the younger of the two returners so we’ll protect him here and wait to see who they add.
One long shot at being protected is youngster Alex Nedeljkovic. The 24-year-old has only six NHL games on his resume but has turned in four strong AHL seasons. If he continues, he might be an option to step up if both Reimer and Mrazek are let go.
Hurricanes protected goalie
Petr Mrazek
Carolina Hurricanes Expansion Draft targets
Forwards
Morgan Geekie
Jesper Fast
Nino Niederreiter (if left exposed)
Defense
Haydn Fleury
Jake Bean
Brady Skjei
Goalie
Alex Nedeljkovic
Thoughts
Defense feels like the best bet for Ron Francis and the Kraken here.
That being said, forward Morgan Geekie would be a quality pick. Francis drafted him when he was running the Hurricanes from the Tri-City Americans in the 2017 NHL Draft. Geekie, 22, was a late-season call-up this past year and shined. He scored three goals in two games and that came after a stellar 22-goal campaign in the AHL. He’s young, has promise, and Francis is familiar with him.
Francis is also familiar with his two best options on defense. Fleury, 24, was a first-round pick by Francis but has yet to have the impact you’d expect in a first rounder. Last year was his best in the NHL though, and if Francis still believes in him, he could be looking at a new situation with the Kraken.
Another Francis first-round pick is Jake Bean who could end up being the best play. Bean, who finished his WHL career in Tri-City, led AHL defensemen in scoring last season and if not for Carolina’s NHL depth at the blue line, he’d have already been up with the big club. He’s an offensive threat from the back end and in his two full AHL campaigns he’s put up 44 and 48 points. The upside is there, Francis knows him, and he’d be a valuable addition to the Seattle Kraken.
Side deal scenarios
If Niederreiter is left exposed, there could be a deal to be struck. Francis may prefer one of the defenders that Carolina has available, but if Waddell wants to unload Niederreiter’s contract he might be willing to give up something to do so. It is hard to see the Hurricanes offering both Niederreiter and a player in such a deal, but Francis might be able to get a high draft pick out of Carolina if he’s willing to take on Niederreiter’s salary. This would likely mean that Francis is OK passing on Bean or Fleury, though.
Although the Columbus Blue Jackets are a notoriously defensively-oriented team that flies under the radar in a small market, drama never fails to follow the Buckeye State’s NHL team. Seattle Kraken fans should keep a keen eye on the theatrics.
Recent rumors have swirled that young star center Pierre-Luc Dubois sought a trade out of Columbus. Although the 22-year-old signed a two-year, $10 million bridge contract — a smaller-term deal many players sign after restricted free agency and before reaching true unrestricted free agency — almost immediately after The Athletic’s Pierre LeBrun reported Dubois wanted out, the rumors are still blistering.
It’s yet another tricky situation for Columbus, which has struggled to retain young and promising forwards — see: Artemi Panarin and Ryan Johansen.
With Johansen, the Blue Jackets traded the centerman to Nashville and landed young defenseman Seth Jones in return. That worked out well.
With Panarin, Columbus never traded him and he jumped ship to the New York Rangers once he reached free agency. Although Columbus upset the Tampa Bay Lightning in a stunning playoff sweep in the first round of the 2018 playoffs, that one did not work out as well.
Seattle Kraken fans should keep a keen eye on that situation, because if Dubois is traded — and if so, for whom — it would impact the Columbus Blue Jackets’ protected list.
Offseason Wildcards
After the Blue Jackets signed Oliver Bjorkstrand to a five-year, $27 million extension, there aren’t many question marks looming with Columbus, aside from the situation with Dubois.
But Nick Foligno is someone to keep an eye on. The 33-year-old team captain is an unrestricted free agent but could be in play for protection if he’s re-signed.
Assumptions
Until Dubois is traded, we will put Dubois on our initial protected list.
Key Exemptions
Alexandre Texier, Liam Foudy, and Emil Bemstrom — three promising forwards who are expected to be NHL regulars this year for the Blue Jackets — are exempt because they haven’t accrued more than two professional seasons.
The same goes for goaltender Elvis Merzlikins. Even though Merzlikins is 26, he’s played only one NHL season and doesn’t need to be protected.
Protected List
Forward:
Cam Atkinson (lock)
Oliver Bjorkstrand (lock)
Pierre-Luc Dubois (lock, if not traded)
Max Domi (lock)
Boone Jenner (near lock)
Gustav Nyquist
Eric Robinson
Defense:
Seth Jones (lock)
Zach Werenski (lock)
Vladislav Gavrikov (near lock)
Goaltender:
Joonas Korpisalo
Columbus’ forward group is not as deep as other teams, which is why the situation with Dubois is so important to monitor.
If Dubois is traded, and there isn’t a forward returning that warrants protection, Columbus may elect to protect eight total skaters instead. The Blue Jackets boast a couple of interesting options on the blue line, which we’ll delve into below, so they could protect a fourth defenseman over someone like Gustav Nyquist.
Expansion Draft Candidates
Forwards:
Cliff Pu
Kole Sherwood
Kevin Stenlund
Calvin Thurkauf
Defensemen:
Gabriel Carlsson
Dean Kukan
Goaltender:
Matiss Kivlenieks
The two trendiest names on Columbus as far as the Seattle Expansion Draft are Carlsson and Kukan, and for good reason.
Carlsson, 24, is 6-foot-5 and comes with a first-round pedigree (the Blue Jackets took him No. 29 overall in the 2015 NHL Draft). The Orebro, Sweden native is regarded as a stay-at-home defenseman with great size, but Carlsson hasn’t stuck full-time in the NHL yet.
After Columbus traded defensemen Ryan Murray and Markus Nutivaara in the offseason, the logjam in front of him dissipated and he should stick with Columbus this season.
If Seattle is seeking a more veteran presence, Kukan is a fine option.
Kukan, 27, showed some offensive upside last year when he drew into the lineup with five points in 33 games, as well as two points (1-1-2) in 19 career playoff games.
While Kukan and Carlsson are the trendy candidates for selection, don’t sleep on Kivlenieks.
The 24-year-old netminder has been the No. 3 in Columbus behind Korpisalo and Merzlikins but has some prospect appeal. If Seattle’s scouting staff holds Kivlenieks in high regard, this is a good option to fill a goaltender spot on the Kraken’s initial roster.
Pu, Thurkauf, Stenlund, and Sherwood would all be young organizational depth pieces from the Blue Jackets and probably nothing more for the Seattle Kraken. Stenlund, a former second-round pick, is the most interesting of that quartet.
Previous Sound Of Hockey Expansion Draft Team Previews
Calgary signed the best free agent goaltender available this past offseason, giving Jacob Markstrom a six-year, $36 million contract to leave division rival Vancouver. Markstrom, 30, bailed the Canucks out numerous times by stealing games and locking down leads while earning team MVP honors the past two seasons. He ranked second in the NHL with 20.16 goals saved (the net difference between the expected total goals allowed and the actual total goals allowed for all scoring chances faced by the goalie) last season, according to Clear Sight Analytics.
His elite play simply masks other deficiencies on his team, and the center position is one that will be under a microscope in Calgary this year. Sean Monahan and Mikael Backlund are good players who play big roles, but the Flames lack that superstar centerman associated with upper tier teams.
Missing the playoffs in the tight North Division – consisting of all the Canadian clubs – or losing in the first round for a third consecutive year will surely amplify the calls to trade star winger Johnny Gaudreau or Monahan. Any fallout from such a big trade will also alter what the Flames, who have just a little more than $223,000 in cap space as of Jan. 5, leave for the Kraken to choose.
Assumptions
Milan Lucic’s no-movement clause presents a big problem for Calgary general manager Brad Treliving. Lucic doesn’t deserve to be among the Flames’ seven protected forwards, possibly forcing the Flames to expose a good middle-six forward.
However, Lucic has waived his NMC before – in 2019 when the Edmonton Oilers traded him to the Flames. He could be convinced to waive it again, but what’s in it for him? Lucic holds some leverage despite his declining skills and production. We’d like to listen in on that conversation Treliving has with Lucic.
We’ll bet Lucic waives his NMC, and we will double down that Seattle won’t take him and his cap hit of $6 million per year through 2022-23.
Calgary Flames Protected List for Expansion Draft
Forwards
Matthew Tkachuk (Lock)
Johnny Gaudreau (Lock)
Sean Monahan (Lock)
Elias Lindholm (Lock)
Dillon Dubé
Sam Bennett
Andrew Mangiapane*
*Contingent upon Lucic waiving his NMC.
Mangiapane would be a good pick for Seattle if Lucic messes things up for Calgary and doesn’t waive his NMC. The 24-year-old notched 17 goals and 32 points in 68 games during his first full season with the Flames, so he’ll need to prove that wasn’t a fluke.
Bennett, 24, showed why he was taken fourth overall in the 2014 entry draft, playing a ferocious, hard-hitting style in the Edmonton playoff bubble. He needs to play more like playoff wrecking ball Sam (five goals and eight points in 10 games) instead of regular season passenger Sam (eight goals and 12 points in 52 games) to remain on this list.
Defense
Noah Hanifin (Lock)
Rasmus Andersson (Lock)
Chris Tanev
Useless fact: Tanev was a few rows in front of me at Night 1 of Pearl Jam’s 2018 “Home Shows” at the stadium formerly known as Safeco Field. How Seattle is that? He’s practically one of us, so it’s too bad the former Canucks blue-liner will likely be protected.
The Flames could still opt to protect Mark Giordano instead of Tanev, 31, who is six years younger and $2.25 million per year cheaper than Calgary’s captain.
Goalie
Jacob Markstrom (Lock, NMC)
Calgary Flames Targets for Expansion Draft
Forwards
Mikael Backlund
Glenn Gawdin
Calgary knows what it’s going to get with Backlund, who has had seasons of 47, 53, 45, 47 and 45 points in the past five years. That production is not likely to go up much now that he’s 31, so I can see Calgary protecting other forwards. However, Seattle would do pretty well to get a versatile center such as Backlund who can score in the 50-point neighborhood.
If you’re hoping Spokane native Derek Ryan heads Seattle’s way, it won’t be through the Expansion Draft. The 34-year-old center will be a free agent after this season.
Defense
Mark Giordano
Oliver Kylington
Giordano will be 39 when the 2021-22 season begins, so the Flames can take a chance they’ll lose their captain to the Kraken. Although Seattle would prefer to skew younger, getting this former Norris Trophy winner would bring a reliable veteran leader who should still be able to deliver a good all-around game and play both special teams.
Giordano will also have just one year left on his contract, reducing the risk for Seattle. As a result, he could be good trade bait at the 2022 deadline, and the Kraken will get $6.75 million in salary cap space freed up for free agents that summer.
Kylington, 23, presents a young and raw option for the Kraken. The 2015 second-round pick put up good numbers in four-plus AHL seasons, has scored five goals and 15 points in 87 NHL career games and is projected to be on Calgary’s third pairing this season.
Goalie
David Rittich
No other Flames goalie besides Markstrom is signed beyond this season, so they’ll need to get either Rittich, Tyler Parsons, Louis Domingue or Garret Sparks under contract through the end of the 2021-22 season to comply with Expansion Draft rules. Rittich, who will be an unrestricted free agent after this season, fumbled his chances to seize Calgary’s No. 1 job but is a decent backup.
The Kraken can do better to look elsewhere for a netminder in the Expansion Draft, especially with the Flames offering interesting choices at forward and defense.
Side Deal Scenarios
Let’s suppose Markstrom leads the Flames on a lengthy playoff run. Calgary might be tempted to keep the core group together, so Treliving would have to consider offering a prospect or draft pick to Kraken GM Ron Francis to steer him away from Giordano, Mangiapane or some trade deadline acquisition.
The Flames have some good, young talent on the horizon. Among them are three such prospects who have been playing recently at the World Junior Championship: Canadian forwards Jakob Pelletier and Connor Zary and U.S. and Everett Silvertips goalie Dustin Wolf. The Flames have all of their 2021 NHL Entry Draft picks except for a fourth-rounder. Calgary also has Edmonton’s third-round pick.
Just sayin’.
Previous Sound of Hockey Expansion Draft team previews
Jim Wilkie is a longtime Northwest journalist, former NHL editor and NHL Insider writer for ESPN.com, onetime GSHL All-Star, and SJHA hockey dad. Follow him on Twitter @jimwilkie.
