Owners of the longest current playoff drought in the NHL, the Buffalo Sabres appear to be on the verge of a breakthrough season that might also benefit the Seattle Kraken in the Expansion Draft.
The Sabres finished just three points behind – and played two games fewer than – the play-in bound Montreal Canadiens when last season was halted because of COVID-19.
During the offseason they landed the most coveted free agent forward, former Hart Trophy winner Taylor Hall, with a one-year, $8 million deal. Combined with franchise cornerstone center Jack Eichel (36 goals and 78 points in 68 games), newly added veteran centers Eric Staal and Cody Eakin, and budding talent in the organization (ranked No. 5 by The Athletic), Buffalo should be a playoff contender.
If the Sabres do indeed make the postseason for the first time in 10 years it would mean more options for the Kraken’s Expansion Draft. Identifying the Sabres’ best players destined to be protected is a mostly straightforward exercise, as spelled out below. But to reach the playoffs, Eichel, Hall, young star defenseman Rasmus Dahlin, et al. will need members of their supporting cast to step up. And that will surely mean more attractive players from which the Kraken will have to choose.
Assumptions
Buffalo and Seattle face a Taylor Hall dilemma up until 2021 Expansion Draft day.
If Buffalo re-signs him before then, he’ll naturally be protected. Considering all the uncertainty about 2020-21, the flat cap, and sagging hockey-related revenues, don’t bet on Hall re-signing during the season. He shrewdly grabbed that one-year deal with an eye on hitting it big on a long-term deal with his next contract, and he’s going to see how he fits in with Buffalo.
Sound Of Hockey’s John Barr previously threw down the possibility of the Kraken taking Hall despite his looming unrestricted free agency. If he’s out there unprotected, the Kraken need to be ready with creative contract offers to dazzle Hall and his agent. Seattle will have an exclusive 48-hour window to negotiate with pending unrestricted free agents prior to the Expansion Draft. That’s a tight time frame to reach a deal on a career-defining contract, but no team will be in better position than the Kraken to put something like that together.
Of course, Buffalo might try to unload Hall close to the trade deadline if the playoffs seem out of reach.
Offseason Sabres Wildcards
Buffalo has $3.496 million in cap space and 21 of 23 roster spots taken, according to CapFriendly.com. More offseason free agent moves are not likely, but then again few people expected Hall to sign with the Sabres.
Sabres Protected List
Forwards
Jack Eichel (Lock)
Sam Reinhart (Lock)
Victor Olofsson (Lock)
Jeff Skinner (Lock, NMC)
Casey Mittlestadt
Tage Thompson
Rasmus Asplund
Mittlestadt, the eighth overall pick in 2017, hasn’t lived up to expectations in two pro seasons, including half of last year in the minors.
Coming off a season-ending shoulder injury, Thompson, 23, is a 6-6, 215-pound right winger who still has to prove he can stick in the NHL.
If Hall re-signs, he’d replace Asplund, 22, on the protected list. But at least Asplund has been playing recently. He just completed his loan to Vasteras IK in Sweden’s second tier pro league, scoring four goals and nine points in 14 games.
Defense
Rasmus Dahlin (Lock)
Rasmus Ristolainen (Lock)
Henri Jokiharju
Goalie
Jonas Johansson
Third-stringer Johansson, 25, should push for some NHL playing time after going 14-4-3 with a 2.28 GAA and .921 save percentage last season at AHL Rochester. He was recently loaned to the Krefeld Penguins in Germany’s top hockey league, the Deutsche Eishockey Liga.
Top Kraken Expansion Draft Players
Forwards
Taylor Hall
Cody Eakin
Zemgus Girgensons
As mentioned above, Hall is an option to pursue if he’s a pending unrestricted free agent.
Third-line center Eakin has been through this before. The Vegas Golden Knights selected him from the Dallas Stars in the 2017 Expansion Draft. He spent two-and-a-half seasons there, scoring 37 goals and 41 assists in 199 games before being traded to the Winnipeg Jets in February.
Girgensons is also a third-liner who can kill penalties but has reached 30 points in a season just once in eight years in the NHL.
Defense
Colin Miller
Brandon Montour
Jake McCabe
Will Borgen
Jokiharju, 21, is a near-lock to be protected, leaving McCabe, 27, Miller, 28, Montour, 26 and Borgen, 23, as the best remaining blue line options available to the Kraken.
If Hall is out of the picture, we see it coming down to one of three defensemen: Jokiharju, Montour or Miller.
Miller was taken by the Golden Knights in the Expansion Draft and had a career year in Vegas’ debut season with 10 goals and 41 points. He played well last season when he was paired with Dahlin, so he could ride the young Swede’s coattails to a bounce back from one goal and 11 points in 51 games.
Montour will be an unrestricted free agent next offseason, so the Kraken might consider using the 48-hour window to negotiate with him if he improves from a down season (five goals, 18 points). Head coach Ralph Krueger clearly favored Montour over others, as he ranked second in ice time per game among Sabres defensemen in 2019-20. His puck possession skills give him an edge as he finished near the top of the NHL in zone entries per 60 minutes, according to Die By The Blade.
If the Kraken want a stay-at-home defender, McCabe or Borgen will be options. McCabe (6-1, 204 pounds) plays a shut-down role and doesn’t offer much offensive production. After two seasons in the AHL, Borgen (6-3,198 pounds) could make a push for a roster spot in 2020-21.
Goalie
Linus Ullmark
Goaltending is Buffalo’s weakest link, and Linus Ullmark, 27, hasn’t exactly seized No. 1 role. He and Carter Hutton will be unrestricted free agents after this season, so the Sabres recently signed Dustin Tokarski, 31, to a two-year deal to ensure they’ll have a live body under contract to leave exposed in the Expansion Draft. Nothing to see here from Seattle’s standpoint, unless Buffalo makes Johansson available.
Side Deal Scenarios
Kraken general manager Ron Francis knows Jeff Skinner well from when they were both in Carolina. Could the former Hurricanes GM be convinced to take Skinner if he waives his no-movement clause? Bear with us for a moment.
Skinner, 28, has a hefty contract worth an average annual value of $9 million through 2026-27. He didn’t come close to deserving that much in the first year of the deal, notching 14 goals, 23 points, minus-22 and a paltry 7.7 shooting percentage in 59 games last season.
That’s a lot of money to be on the hook for until Skinner is 35, so the Sabres would have to offer a mighty amazing sweetener in the form of a quality player or valuable prospect. It’s a type of move that would impact his longevity in Seattle, so Francis would have to be absolutely sure Skinner can bounce back and show he deserves to be among the current top 25 highest-paid players in the league. Selecting Skinner alone would be foolish, but Buffalo dangling a top forward prospect such as Dylan Cozens would be tantalizing.
Other Kraken Expansion Draft Notes
Another interesting layer of intrigue is Francis’ former Hurricanes teammate Kevyn Adams taking over as Buffalo’s GM in June. On the surface, before any games have been played under his tenure, Adams has done a nice job at reshaping the Sabres. Can the wily veteran Francis outfox the rookie GM when the Kraken decide which Buffalo player to take at draft time?
Discuss that and other Buffalo scenarios below.
Previous Sound of Hockey Expansion Draft team previews
Jim Wilkie is a longtime Northwest journalist, former NHL editor and NHL Insider writer for ESPN.com, a onetime GSHL All-Star, and SJHA hockey dad. Follow him on Twitter @jimwilkie.
Believe it or not, it’s only been four years since the Anaheim Ducks played in the Western Conference Finals. Since then, the franchise experienced a first-round playoff exit followed by two complete misses of the postseason. Now, the Ducks find themselves in the purgatory of a roster with aging, high-priced veterans mixed with a handful of prospects whose ultimate value has yet to be discovered. An added challenge for the Ducks will be the Seattle Expansion Draft.
General manager Bob Murray has a difficult task ahead of him in rebuilding. Those veterans are expensive, and he’ll have a tough time moving them due to a flat cap plus the six modified no-trade clauses on his payroll. It’s a combination that will limit how much cap space he can free up while adding picks at the trade deadline.
Will that entice Murray and the Ducks to expose a veteran to the Kraken in the Seattle Expansion Draft?
Assumptions
Ducks legend Ryan Getzlaf is scheduled to be a free agent after the upcoming season and technically would not need to be protected. However, it’s likely that the 35-year-old center will be re-signed by Anaheim and that could come during the upcoming season. For this exercise, we’ll assume that he extends with Anaheim and is protected.
Roster Wildcards
With no cap space, the Ducks roster is set by default. Along with Getzlaf, veteran forward David Backes is scheduled to be an unrestricted free agent after this season.
Protected List
Forwards
If Murray feels he needs to shed a high salary, he could dangle a player like Adam Henrique in front of Seattle by unprotecting the veteran. The 30-year-old has four years left on his contract that carries a $5.8 million cap hit with it. This is a long shot as Henrique is coming off his best season in Anaheim since being traded from New Jersey in 2017. He potted 26 goals on 43 points and was a positive possession player (52% Corsi for).
It’s more likely, though, that the Ducks veteran forwards will be protected along with young players like Sam Steel and Troy Terry. The seventh forward will come down to one of a handful of other young players, depending on how they fare with Anaheim this year.
Max Jones is one of the players looking to play his way into the protection conversation. A former first-round pick, Jones has two pro seasons under his belt. He’s 22-years-old and stuck around for 59 games with the Ducks last season. Jones, a left wing, has played in 89 NHL games over the past two years in total and is scratching the surface. If he breaks through, he’ll find himself protected.
Anaheim has been high on 21-year-old Isac Lundestrom as well. The Swede has potential but needs to show he can score more consistently to earn protection. He spent most of last season with the AHL’s San Diego Gulls (43 games), scoring 21 points. Lundestrom is currently on loan in Sweden where he’s started with five goals and 11 points in his first 12 games, which is an encouraging sign.
The Ducks picked up Sonny Milano, 24, and Danton Heinen, 25, in separate deals at last season’s trade deadline. The pair each played in nine games with Anaheim, and are young with upside. Milano came to the Ducks from the Columbus Blue Jackets, and while he has yet to be a big scorer in the NHL, he’s two seasons removed from a 27-game AHL stint with Cleveland where he picked up 24 points in 27 games.
Expect one of these four to be the seventh protected forward, and for this exercise let’s assume it’s Jones due to his age and NHL experience. This could easily change by season’s end.
Projected to Be Protected From Seattle Expansion Draft
Ryan Getzlaf
Adam Henrique
Jakob Silfverberg
Rickard Rakell
Troy Terry
Sam Steel
Max Jones
Defense
Cam Fowler is the Ducks’ most expensive defenseman but is their best and is under contract through the 2026 season at $6.5 million a year. While that’s a big contract, Anaheim will not expose a 28-year-old defenseman who is productive and in his prime years.
The Ducks may be willing to expose Josh Manson and his $4.1 million contract. The 29-year-old had what looked like a breakout season in 2017-2018 where he picked up 37 points in 80 games, but that apparently was an anomaly. In the two campaigns since, he’s managed a combined total of 27 points and has revealed himself to be an average defenseman.
Manson becomes further expendable with the free agency addition of Kevin Shattenkirk this offseason. A couple of years older than Manson, Shattenkirk is cheaper at $3.9 million and is still a productive defenseman with a longer track record.
Projected to Be Protected From Seattle Expansion Draft
Cam Fowler
Hampus Lindholm
Kevin Shattenkirk
Goalie
John Gibson is the man for the Ducks and will be their number one goalie for the foreseeable future. The most interesting Ducks goalie prospect, Lukas Dostal, is not eligible for the Seattle Expansion Draft, leaving the Kraken with slim pickings from Anaheim’s goaltending options.
Murray does have to expose an eligible goalie for the Seattle Expansion Draft, though. Anthony Stolarz projects to be Gibson’s back-up but is scheduled to be a UFA after this season. The Ducks could re-sign Stolarz and expose him without fear of losing him.
Top Expansion Candidates for the Seattle Expansion Draft
Forwards
Sonny Milano
Danton Heinen
Isac Lundestrom
Defense
Josh Manson
Josh Mahura
Brendan Guhle
Anaheim Ducks players, their contract info, and career stats.
Thoughts
The Kraken have some good talent to choose from the Ducks in the Seattle Expansion Draft. Manson is not an offensive threat, but he was an alternate captain with Anaheim and can provide veteran leadership. His contract also comes in handy, as it will help the Kraken reach the cap floor.
If Ron Francis wants to go younger, Mahura is an interesting player. Mahura, 22, has yet to establish himself as a regular NHLer but was a big-time scorer from the blue line in junior and is coming off an AHL season in San Diego where he scored 21 points in 44 games. He’s less of a sure NHLer than Manson, but Mahura has potential.
Brendan Guhle, 23, is right alongside Mahura as a young, offensive defenseman. Guhle has yet to prove he belongs in the NHL. He’s had looks and is with his second organization after starting with the Buffalo Sabres. The productive AHL seasons are there, and if the Kraken feel they can harvest NHL-level skill, he is worth the pick.
Up front, if Lundestrom is left unprotected he could be an intriguing pick here as well. Again, it may depend on what he shows this coming season.
Side Deal Scenarios
Murray and the Ducks pulled off one of the more scrutinized side deals during the Vegas Expansion Draft. They famously sent defenseman Shea Theodore – who wasn’t eligible to be drafted – to the Golden Knights with the agreement that Vegas would take Clayton Stoner. Theodore, a former Seattle Thunderbird, has since turned out to be one of the top young defensemen in the league.
Did that experience burn Murray? He has no cap room and a couple of high contracts on his books, so he may feel he doesn’t have a choice but to try something like that again.
The San Jose Sharks are coming off their worst season in 15 years. It was only the second time in 22 years that they failed to qualify for the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Yet this is still a club that’s just one season removed from playing in the Conference Finals. It is really anyone’s guess as to how the Sharks will fare in the upcoming 2020-21 season.
Are they a team in need of a rebuild, or do they have the potential for a few deep playoff runs in their immediate future? This upcoming campaign should be a big indicator of which direction this salary-cap-strapped team is heading, and the answer should influence its approach to the NHL Expansion Draft next summer.
This offseason the Sharks acquired Devan Dubnyk (G) and Ryan Donato (F) in separate trades with the Minnesota Wild. They also added depth forward Matt Nieto and brought back Sharks legend and former Seattle Thunderbird, Patrick Marleau (F), both on one-year deals via free agency.
Assumptions
The Sharks do not have any pending UFAs that will impact the Expansion Draft after the 2021 season. Both Erik Karlsson (D) and Marc-Edouard Vlasic (D) have no-move clauses (NMC), and we will assume they will not waive those clauses.
Roster Wildcards
The roster is fairly set, so any wildcards will be driven by trades or UFA signings after this article is published.
Protected List
Forwards
The Sharks forward core of Logan Couture, Evander Kane, Timo Meier, and Tomas Hertl are pretty much locks to be protected. We would add 24-year-old, Kevin LeBanc, and 22-year-old prospect, Jonathan Dahlen, to the protected list. Dahlen has yet to play in the NHL but seems to be knocking on the door.
The seventh protected forward spot will come down to Bonney Lake’s own Dylan Gambrell, former Thunderbird, Alexander True, or either Maxim Letunov or newly acquired Ryan Donato.
Here are the cases to be made for protecting each of those players:
Gambrell has the most offensive upside.
True is the youngest of the four and appeared to belong in the NHL when he was called up at the end of last year.
Letunov had two quality development years in the AHL.
Donato has the most NHL experience with 130 games.
Who gets protected will really come down to how these players progress during the 2020-21 season. At this point, we are going to project that Donato is protected based on the fact that he is the only one to have shown that he can contribute in the NHL as an everyday player.
Projected Protected
Logan Couture (Lock)
Timo Meier (Lock)
Thomas Hertl (Lock)
Evander Kane (Lock)
Kevin LeBanc
Jonathan Dahlen
Ryan Donato
Defense
As stated above, Erik Karlsson and Marc-Edouard Vlasic have no-move clauses and will take two of the three protected defense slots. At first glance, you might assume Brent Burns would be the third protected defenseman for the Sharks. After all, Burns has been an offensive juggernaut for the Sharks over the last six seasons. He had 128 points in 152 games over the last two seasons. However, he will be 36 next summer and will have four more years left on his contract that has a cap hit of $8M a year.
Those are all important things to consider if there ends up being another up-and-coming defenseman that would be exposed with the protection of Burns. Assuming that there is no major drop-off in production from the hockey-playing caveman, then Burns should be the third protected defenseman in the Expansion Draft.
Projected Protected
Erik Karlsson (NMC – Lock)
Marc-Edouard Vlasic (NMC – Lock)
Brent Burns
Goalie
Both Dubnyk and Martin Jones are looking for rebound years after somewhat disastrous 2019-20 performances. At this time, we do not see any reason why the Sharks would protect Jones, who has underperformed since signing his six-year deal in 2017. Dubnyk is an unrestricted free agent at the end of the 2020-21 season, so there is no real benefit to San Jose for protecting him either. The only other goalie candidate to protect is a 22-year-old in their AHL franchise, Josef Korenar.
Projected Protected
Josef Korenar
Top Expansion Candidates for Seattle Kraken
Forwards
Dylan Gambrell
Alexander True
Maxim Letunov
Defense
Radim Simek
Goalie
Martin Jones
Either Gambrell or True would be a storybook scenario given their Pacific Northwest ties, but before the story is written, the Kraken will need to make sure they are everyday NHLers in the league. Both appear to be destined for the top level, and this next season will be a huge indicator on their broader outlook.
Letunov is in the same boat but might spend one more year in the AHL before getting his opportunity. Simek is a serviceable defenseman, should the Kraken determine that they can fill out their forward roster with selections from other teams. If San Jose ends up exposing Burns, and he has a normal season by his standards, the Kraken will have a hard time not picking him.
Side Deal Scenarios
The Sharks are up against the salary cap and have a few big contracts that they might want to shed. The Kraken’s biggest asset is cap space, which could make for a pretty good match. Of the players without a NMC, Martin Jones has the biggest potential to be part of a side deal with Seattle, but it still seems like Jones would need to have a bit of a bounce back year for Seattle to consider picking him. His $5.7M cap hit would be on the high side for a potential back-up goalie, but it might help the Kraken hit the cap floor requirement per the Expansion Draft rules.
When the Seattle Kraken Expansion Draft rolls around next year, the Senators won’t be letting any highly valuable assets go for nothing. Besides being one of the NHL’s worst teams last season, Ottawa was also one of the cheapest.
Ottawa’s 62 points were second-worst last season, behind only the Detroit Red Wings, and its $70.516 million in player salaries ranked 27th out of 31 teams, according to Spotrac.
Only in mid-October did the Senators exceed the salary floor of $60.2 million, leaving them with $11.8 million in cap space as of November 14. Unpopular owner Eugene Melnyk probably wouldn’t spend much money in better times either, though. This makes it likely that the Senators will be hovering around the salary floor again next offseason when they have to submit their protection list for the Expansion Draft.
So, which Senators players will be available to the Kraken?
Here’s why Seattle will likely choose a depth player from Ottawa.
Assumptions
Because of their large amount of cap space, the Senators might be willing to acquire another team’s bad contract if it comes with a top prospect and/or high draft pick. Look for these deals to happen around the 2021 trade deadline or offseason, especially if the NHL has to go very long without fans in arenas because of the pandemic.
Those bad contracts will be available for the Kraken to choose no matter what team they belong to, so the question is whether Seattle general manager Ron Francis believes it’s worth taking on any of those pricy risks. If it’s a serviceable player with only a year remaining on his contract, Francis could be enticed with an extra player or Entry Draft pick through a side trade.
Senators Offseason Wildcards
With so much cap space, Ottawa has room to bring in more free agents this offseason. All indications are that the Senators are content with their roster, however, after signing forward Alex Galchenyuk to a one-year, $1.05 million deal late last month.
Even if Melnyk permits a larger payroll, any new contracts will be short term because of revenue uncertainty over COVID-19.
Protected List
Forwards
Brady Tkachuk, LW (Lock) Drake Batherson, RW (Lock) Connor Brown, RW (Lock) Colin White, C Logan Brown, C Evgenii Dadonov, RW Austin Watson, RW
Dadonov, 31, signed a three-year, $15 million free agent contract that’s back-loaded with $6.5 million due in the final year of the deal. So if the former Florida Panther fails to click and falls down the depth chart next season, perhaps the Senators will leave him unprotected.
Defense
Thomas Chabot (Lock) Nikita Zaitsev (Lock) Josh Brown
Acquired in an offseason trade from Florida, the 6-5 and 217-pound Brown is no more than a fifth or sixth defenseman. But being a right-handed shot will help Brown’s stock when the Sens submit their protected list.
Goalie
Matt Murray (Lock)
After being acquired from Pittsburgh and signing a four-year, $25 million contract, Murray would have to have a disastrous first season in Ottawa to be left unprotected. The two-time Stanley Cup champion does have a lot to prove after a disappointing 2019-20 in which he was 20-11-5 with a 2.87 GAA and .899 save percentage.
Top Seattle Kraken Expansion Draft Players – Senators
Forwards
Center Chris Tierney (6-1, 195 pounds) had an unspectacular 11 goals and 26 assists in 71 games last season, but he was Ottawa’s best faceoff man (51.17 percent) and a good penalty killer with four short-handed goals. The six-year veteran with 61 goals, 128 assists and 189 points in 436 games is only 26 and would be a good role-playing, bottom-six forward who could occasionally move up to the second line.
Left winger Nick Paul is a year younger than Tierney and has less NHL experience (112 games, 13 goals, 15 assists, 28 points). But he’s bigger at 6-3 and 219 pounds with good speed. He can also kill penalties and would be a bottom-six forward at best.
For the Senators, the final forward to protect from the Seattle Kraken in the Expansion Draft might come down to deciding between Tierney and Austin Watson. At Expansion Draft time, Watson will have two years and $3 million remaining compared with Tierney’s one year and $3.5 million. Watson is two years younger, less skilled but bigger (6-4, 204 pounds) and plays a more rugged game. As the younger, skilled Sens develop, they’re going to need veteran players such as Watson to protect them.
Fun fact: From 2014-15 to 2017-18 with the Sharks, Tierney scored eight goals and 12 points in 18 games against the Vancouver Canucks. He also notched four assists in four games against the Canucks since he’s been a Senator. So he’s got that going for him if he ends up back in the Pacific Division.
Defense
Seattle’s pickings appear slim among Ottawa blue-liners with Christian Wolanin, 25, and Maxime Lajoie, 22, leading the way.
Wolanin (five goals, 10 assists and 15 points in 43 career NHL games and eight goals, 24 assists and 32 points in 49 AHL games) missed much of 2019-20 to injury. But the 6-2, 185-pound left-hand shot figures to compete for the third pairing next season.
The speedy Lajoie (seven goals, eight assists and 15 points in 62 NHL games) has faded since a quick start to his NHL career in 2018. He’ll likely be back in AHL Belleville, where the left-handed shooting Lajoie notched four goals, 13 assists and 17 points in 48 games last season.
Goalie
After Murray, the Senators have a bunch of question marks on their goaltender depth chart. No. 2 Anders Nilsson, who will be an unrestricted free agent in 2021, is a career backup and not worth considering. Marcus Hogberg and Joey Daccord figure to continue playing in Belleville of the AHL, and Filip Gustavsson is on loan to Sodertalje SK in Sweden.
Unless Hogberg or Daccord emerge with a spectacular season, Gustavsson is the most intriguing option for Seattle. The 2016 second-round pick of the Pittsburgh Penguins was a highly touted prospect who was named the top goalie of the 2018 World Junior Hockey Championships after leading Sweden to a silver medal. He has been disappointing over two-plus seasons in Belleville (29-28, 3.28 GAA, .891 save percentage), but the 22-year-old is off to a nice start in 14 games at Sodertalje (8-5, one shutout, 2.20 GAA, .925 save percentage).
Goalies take a lot longer to develop. Calgary Flames netminder Jacob Markstrom, for example, split time between the AHL and the Florida Panthers at the same age and never became a No. 1 goalie until he was 27 with the Canucks. So if Gustavsson can get back on track, the Kraken might consider taking him as a project for their third goalie.
Side Deal Scenarios
Ottawa has a deep prospect pool (recently ranked seventh by The Athletic), and it added three first-round picks during the 2020 NHL Entry Draft. Unfortunately for Seattle, the Senators’ best prospects will be protected or be exempt from Expansion Draft protection because of a lack of pro experience.
Unless many fringe players have breakout seasons next year, Sens GM Pierre Dorion should have no need to pursue any trades to steer Francis from taking certain players. Dorion does have three 2021 second-round Entry Draft picks, as well as all of his 2022 and 2023 picks, though, should the need arise.
Other Notes
The Senators’ top prospects such as C Josh Norris, LW Alex Formenton and D Erik Brannstrom are exempt from the Seattle Kraken in the Expansion Draft due to lack of North American pro experience.
Jim Wilkie is a longtime Northwest journalist, former NHL editor and NHL Insider writer for ESPN.com, a onetime GSHL All-Star, and SJHA hockey dad. Follow him on Twitter @jimwilkie.
This is the first in Sound Of Hockey’s series on the Seattle Kraken NHL Expansion Draft, which will examine all 30 of the participating NHL teams over the next couple of months. Read our previous story that explains the rules of the Expansion Draft here. We hope this series will help you get a grasp on who will be available for the Kraken to target when they assemble their inaugural team next summer. Enjoy!
The Detroit Red Wings were bad last year. How bad? They earned 39 points which was last in the NHL by 23 while being outscored by 122 goals, more than double the next worst in the NHL. If the traditional stats don’t convince you then consider the Red Wings were last in Corsi for (45.99), last in high-danger chances (483), and second-worst in high-danger save percentage (.770). They couldn’t score, couldn’t create chances, and didn’t make big saves. That adds up to 39 points.
General Manager Steve Yzerman has a rebuild on his hands and although they have cap space going into next season, the Red Wings are in full youth movement mode. That means that the Expansion Draft options for the Seattle Kraken will most likely yield a depth player at best.
Assumptions
Yzerman is building around his young players which means that guys like Dylan Larkin or Anthony Mantha will be protected and unavailable. The Red Wings won’t be in contention next season so will not be buying at the trade deadline. In that same vein, it’s unlikely they will move any players at the trade deadline that are of interest to Seattle.
Offseason Wildcards
Detroit’s roster is mostly set heading into the season, so any major additions or blockbuster trades seem unlikely at this point.
Protected List
Yzerman has some decisions to make here. The vets he has either will be unrestricted free agents in 2021 or aren’t worth protecting. He’ll lean on his young players and will have to make a choice of exposing depth players.
Forwards
Up front, a player to note is former Tri-City Americans center Michael Rasmussen. Selected ninth overall in 2017, Rasmussen spent his rookie year of 2018-2019 in the NHL, appearing in 62 games for the Red Wings and picking up 18 points. Last season he was sent to the AHL and spent some time injured while recording 22 points in just 35 games. It seems like a long shot he would be exposed, considering his upside at just 21-years-old, but it may come down to how he performs this season.
Like Rasmussen, this coming season will be an important one for Evgeny Svechnikov. He has yet to crack the NHL lineup as a regular, and this coming year will say a lot about his future with the Red Wings. He burst out with a strong rookie season in the AHL with 51 points but has only picked up 55 in the following two seasons. Will Yzerman give up on the former first-round pick – one that was selected by the previous regime – or give him a chance to earn a roster spot and protection?
Svechnikov is far from a lock to be protected. If Yzerman feels the 24-year-old has peaked, he may very well feel comfortable in exposing him. If that’s the case, look for the Red Wings to protect forward Givani Smith instead. Smith is two years younger than Svechnikov and may ultimately have a better shot at contributing in the NHL.
For this exercise, we’ll protect Svechnilov which makes Detroit’s protected list look as follows:
Protected
Dylan Larkin Anthony Mantha Tyler Bertuzzi Robby Fabbri Vladislav Namestnikov Michael Rasmussen Evgeny Svechnikov
Defense
The biggest challenge for Yzerman here is between Dennis Cholowski and Gustav Lindstrom. Cholowski, 22, is a left defenseman who was a first-round pick in 2016 but has only played nine NHL games and two less-than-exciting seasons in the AHL with Grand Rapids. Lindstrom is the same age and has played 16 NHL games but with less offensive upside than Cholowski.
There is a strong chance one of the two will be left unprotected.
Protected
Danny DeKeyser Filip Hronek Dennis Cholowski
Goalie
There isn’t much to choose from here. Detroit signed Thomas Greiss this offseason and do not have a long-term option behind him. He’ll be protected while back up Jonathan Bernier is a UFA after this season and won’t be in play for the expansion draft unless he is re-signed during the season.
Top Expansion Draft Players
Players who could be on the radar to be selected by Seattle:
Forwards
Givani Smith
Defense
Gustav Lindstrom Troy Stecher
Thoughts
The Seattle Kraken are not going to find a top-end player from the Red Wings in the Expansion Draft. Detroit is rebuilding, so it can and will protect its best players on the roster.
Svechnikov very well may be exposed, and he’ll be someone to ponder for the Kraken. His production has regressed in pro hockey after putting up huge numbers in the QMJHL, and if he’s available that means he didn’t play well again this coming season.
Another forward to really consider will be Smith, if he is left unprotected. He’s 22 years old but doesn’t project to be a top-six player in the NHL. Even so, the lack of huge numbers in the AHL doesn’t mean he couldn’t be a grinder that might give Seattle some good, hard minutes as a third or fourth-line guy or even an AHL depth player.
Still, with the pickings slim up front, the Kraken most likely will be looking at one of Detroit’s available defensemen. It makes more sense that the Red Wings will protect Cholowski since he has more of an offensive skill set. Lindstrom isn’t a flashy player or high pick, but could end up providing defensive depth. It’s just hard to see him being anything other than a bottom pairing guy or potentially an AHL player for the Kraken.
If Seattle prefers a player with more experience, Troy Stecher, 26, could be an option on defense. Detroit brought the former Vancouver Canuck in as a free agent this offseason. Stecher is a solid two-way defenseman who has played in 286 NHL games and comes with an affordable $1.7 million cap hit.
Having a veteran presence on the back end could prove valuable, so Stecher might be the best option here.
Side Deal Scenarios
Detroit has over $9 million in cap space with no prohibitive contracts on the books. Without that pressure on Yzerman to make a deal, it’s hard to find a realistic trade scenario.
Other Notes
Forward Frans Nielsen has a modified no-movement clause in his contract. Forwards Darren Helm, Valterri Filppula, Luke Glendening, Bobby Ryan, and Sam Gagner are all scheduled to be UFA prior to the 2021-2022 season.
On defense, Mark Staal, Patrik Nemeth, Jon Merrill, and Alex Biega are UFA after the completion of next season.
Now that the NHL Entry Draft is done, and the bulk of the NHL Free Agency period is complete, we can officially start zeroing in on how teams might approach the Seattle Kraken NHL Expansion Draft next summer. There will certainly be roster moves between now and that momentous event, but those changes will pale in comparison to the volume of transactions we’ve witnessed over the past three months.
Here at Sound Of Hockey, we will be going through every team over the next few weeks to project who will be protected and who might be targeted by the Kraken, and we will look to uncover all the nuances that come with the Expansion Draft.
Before we start, let us walk through Expansion Draft rules. 30 of the 31 existing NHL teams will be participating, with the exception being the Vegas Golden Knights, who are exempt. Each team participating will lose one player to the Kraken.
Seattle Kraken Expansion Draft Rules
Seattle must select one player from the 30 participating teams. They are required to select at least 14 forwards, nine defensemen, and three goaltenders. That would leave four additional players for the Kraken to choose for whichever position they see fit. Additionally, 20 of the players selected must be under contract for the 2021-22 season, and the aggregate salary cap hit must be between 60 and 100 percent of the 2020-21 upper limit of the cap.
Other Teams’ Expansion Draft Rules
Existing clubs will be able to protect either:
7 Forwards, 3 Defensemen, and 1 Goalie
8 Skaters (any combo of Forwards and Defensemen) and 1 Goalie
Any player with a full No-Movement Clause in his contract must be protected unless said player waives his NMC, which was not common in the 2017 Expansion Draft.
Exemptions
Players with two or fewer seasons of pro hockey experience in North America, either AHL or NHL, are automatically exempt from the Expansion Draft and therefore do not need to be protected by their teams. There is also a threshold of 10 games that needs to be exceeded to count as a season of pro hockey.
A good example of this will be Quinn Hughes. Hughes only played five games in 2018-19, and thus that season will not count as a pro season. Since he played more than 10 games in the 2019-20 season, he can play the entire upcoming season with no significant injuries, and he will still have only two completed seasons when the Expansion Draft occurs, making him exempt.
Exposure Requirements
As part of their requirements, the 30 teams participating in the Seattle Kraken Expansion Draft must expose two forwards and one defenseman that are under contract for the 2021-22 season. These players are required to have played 40 games in the 2020-21 season or have 70 or more NHL games over the 2019-20 & 2020-21 seasons combined. Similarly, teams must expose a goalie that is either under contract in 2021-22 or a restricted free agent following the 2020-21 season.
Worth noting, we highly anticipate that the games played requirements for forwards and defensemen will be adjusted down due to the 2019-20 season being abbreviated and the likelihood that the 2020-21 season will also be shorter than the usual 82 games.
Career-Ending Injuries Clause
Players with potential career-ending injuries who have missed more than the previous 60 consecutive games may not be used to satisfy a team’s player exposure requirements unless approval is received from the NHL. These players will be deemed exempt from selection. Ryan Kesler would be a good example of a player that fits in this category. Due to injuries, Kesler has not played a game since the 2018-19 season and is unlikely to take the ice next season, even though he is under contract until 2022. In this scenario, Kesler cannot be used to fulfill one of the spots in the two-forward exposure requirement.
These exposure requirements are designed to guarantee the 30 NHL teams participating make legitimate NHL-level players available to Seattle.
2017 Expansion Draft
To get some insight on how the Seattle Kraken Expansion Draft may play out, we can look back at the 2017 Expansion Draft because the rules were identical for the Vegas Golden Knights.
Here is how NHL teams chose to protect their players, either via the seven forwards, three defensemen, and one goalie scenario, or via the eight total skaters and one goalie route.
This is how Vegas drafted its players across positions.
As a reminder, the minimums for forwards and goalies was 14 and three respectfully, thus Vegas used all four of its position agnostic picks on defensemen.
The Rest of the Story
It gets more complicated. Another part of the Expansion Draft will be the trades that occur before, during, and after the event. Predicting these scenarios will be downright impossible without insider information up until the very moment the Kraken submit their picks to the league. A lot of this will involve wheeling and dealing by teams to try to manage their cap space, so here are some of the terms and scenarios you should be aware of before the Expansion Draft.
Pending Unrestricted Free Agents
There will be several players exposed by their teams that will be “Pending Unrestricted Free Agents” (UFA). The scenario is that a player will have just played the last year of his NHL contract with his team and will become an Unrestricted Free Agent roughly one week after the Expansion Draft. The Kraken will have a 48-hour window before their selections are made to talk and negotiate with any of these UFAs. An example here is where a player like Taylor Hall is left unprotected by Buffalo. Seattle could discuss a potential contract term for a new deal with Hall. If they reach an agreement, Seattle would then choose Hall in the Expansion Draft. If they cannot reach a deal, Seattle would find some other player to select from Buffalo.
Draft and Let Walk
This is a scenario where Seattle would draft a player that they know will become an Unrestricted Free Agent on ~July 1st (or a week after whenever the Expansion Draft actually happens). This would imply no actual intention of signing this pending free agent. This would come into play if the Kraken do not see any other notable assets on the NHL team’s roster, but selecting this UFA would fulfill the rule of selecting one player per team. Vegas did this with three players: Chris Thorburn (WPG), Connor Brickley (CAR), and Jean-Francois Berube (NYI).
Draft and Flip
In this scenario, the Kraken more than likely would have a predetermined arrangement with another NHL team that if Seattle chooses Player X on Team A, then Team B would trade assets (either players from Team B or picks for the Amateur Draft) to Seattle for Player X. After the Vegas Expansion Draft there were four players that were immediately traded to another NHL team, literally being jettisoned the following day. Alexei Emelin (MON -> NSH), David Schlemko (SJS -> MON), Marc Methot (OTT -> DAL), and Trevor van Riemsdyk (CHI -> CAR) are in this category.
Side Deals
The side deal is the meatiest of meaty subjects in the Expansion Draft. Fans and the media alike point to the side deals as the reason Vegas got so good so fast. Vegas completed nine side deals leading up to and during the Expansion Draft.
This is where Seattle would negotiate terms of their player selection with each respective team in advance. An example of this was when Anaheim agreed to trade Shea Theodore to Vegas if Vegas selected Clayton Stoner in the Expansion Draft. Clayton Stoner was injured and would never play another NHL game. Theodore was a young, up-and-coming defenseman for Anaheim. Vegas gets a young prospect, while Anaheim would get the Clayton Stoner contract and financial commitment taken off their books.
Side deals in the Expansion Draft netted the Golden Knights an additional six players, 10 Entry Draft picks, and signing rights to one player. The media narrative going around is that teams will be less wiling to do these side deals with Seattle, but with a flat salary cap expected over the next few seasons, you can imagine that teams will be forced to unload some contracts to remain cap compliant.
Summary
We hope this gives you a good overview on what to expect in the Expansion Draft scenarios as the Kraken get closer and closer to selecting their team. There is no doubt NHL rosters will change before summer, 2021, but we can start to circle some players on teams that may be candidates, and that is exciting stuff.
