Most of my podcast listening time comes while walking my two dogs, George and Eddie. A few weeks ago, when the Kraken were 2-0, I found myself listening to a 32 Thoughts episode from Oct. 13 about not overreacting to two games. I don’t remember much from the podcast, but Elliotte Friedman made a statement that made me look at George and Eddie with a quizzical look and think, “Is that true?”
Friedman said that by Nov. 1, teams that are four or more points out of the playoffs only make the postseason 14 percent of the time. I spot-checked this over the last eight full seasons, and while the percentage was slightly higher at 20 percent, the general idea holds true.
Historically, I’ve always used Thanksgiving as a decent checkpoint for playoff projections. Roughly 75 percent of teams in playoff position at that time end up making it. For this analysis, I looked at the last eight full seasons (2015–2024), skipping the two pandemic-shortened ones (2019–20 and 2020–21).
Instead of focusing on teams that missed, I analyzed how clubs in playoff position fared using Halloween, not Thanksgiving, as the checkpoint. To go a layer deeper, I broke down standings by position—first, second, or third in the division, and the first or second wild card slots.
Thanksgiving
The tricky thing about Thanksgiving is its variability. It falls on the fourth Thursday of November, meaning it can land anywhere between Nov. 22 and Nov. 28. That variability means teams have played anywhere from 18 to 25 games by then, though most have around 20.
Across the eight seasons studied, 76.6 percent of teams in playoff position at Thanksgiving made the postseason. Here’s how that breaks down by standings position:
The first chart may be a bit dense at first glance. It shows, from left to right, how often teams in each divisional or wild card position at Thanksgiving went on to make the playoffs. The final bar in each cluster represents the overall average for that season.
To make it easier to digest, the second chart below simplifies things by showing the average playoff rates for each standings position across all eight seasons:
As expected, standings position matters. Teams in the top two division spots make the playoffs far more often than those in third or wild card positions. In fact, teams in the top two averaged an 89.1 percent playoff rate, 25 percent higher than teams in third or wild card slots. Wild card and third-place teams landed in the 60th percentile, giving them better than even odds to make the postseason.
Halloween
By Halloween, most teams have played between eight and 13 games, with only minor differences in games played. I wanted to see if this much earlier checkpoint could still serve as a gauge for postseason likelihood. My assumption was that it would be too early to draw meaningful conclusion—but the data suggests otherwise.
Teams sitting first, second, or third in their division on Halloween made the playoffs more often than not. Overall, the success rate dropped by just over 10 percent to 66.4 percent, compared with Thanksgiving’s 76.6 percent.
However, the wild card positions were far less stable. Teams in those spots made the postseason less than half the time. What surprised me most was that first- and second-place teams at Halloween made the playoffs 82.8 percent of the time—an impressive number given that only about 10 games have been played.
The takeaway: division leaders at Halloween already have a strong foothold, while wild card teams face much shakier odds. Thanksgiving remains a more reliable indicator, especially for teams hovering around the bubble.
Where the Kraken sit
Seattle wrapped up their October games on Oct. 28, sitting second in the Pacific Division. As other teams played later in the month, Seattle slipped into the final wild card spot. A late rally by Los Angeles on Oct. 30, sparked by two goals from Corey Perry with the goalie pulled, earned the Kings a point and moved the Kraken down in the standings.
On Halloween night, the Anaheim Ducks beat the Detroit Red Wings 5-2, bumping Seattle down another spot into the second wild card position.
Still, it’s a solid place to be, especially since the Kraken hold games in hand. Anaheim and Seattle have played only 10 games so far, while the rest of the Western Conference has played 11 or 12. When Seattle made the playoffs in its second season, it also held the second wild card spot on Halloween.
The Kraken have experience fighting from this position and will need to stay sharp heading into November, when the strength of their schedule softens a bit.
Based on Halloween data, the Kraken have a 66.4 percent chance to hang on to a playoff spot. They’ll look to improve those odds by Thanksgiving as they continue their homestand against the New York Rangers, Chicago Blackhawks, and San Jose Sharks.
As requested in the comments adding a picture of Eddie and George.
Eddie and George
Blaiz Grubic
Blaiz Grubic is a contributor at Sound Of Hockey. A passionate hockey fan and player for over 30 years, Blaiz grew up in the Pacific Northwest and is an alumni of Washington State University (Go Cougs!). When he’s not playing, watching, or writing about hockey, he enjoys quality time with his wife and daughter or getting out on a golf course for a quick round. Follow @blaizg on BlueSky or X.
The Seattle Kraken made two subtle (but notable) roster moves this offseason that could have a sneaky impact on a part of the game that hasn’t historically been a strength for the team: the penalty kill. Frédérick Gaudreau, acquired via trade from Minnesota, and Ryan Lindgren, signed in free agency after splitting last season between the Rangers and Avalanche, were both key penalty killers for their previous teams.
The state of the Kraken penalty kill
Let’s be honest, the Kraken have never had a good penalty kill. In their four NHL seasons, they’ve never finished higher than 79 percent on their PK success rate, and they’ve consistently been in the bottom half of the league. Last season, they ended at 77.2 percent, which ranked 21st overall.
To their credit, the Kraken haven’t taken many penalties and were shorthanded just 193 times last season, fifth fewest in the league. But even with a lower volume, the efficiency still wasn’t good enough. It was clear the penalty kill needed attention this offseason.
And then came the trade deadline, when Seattle shipped out two of their top penalty-killing forwards: Yanni Gourde and Brandon Tanev. In the games Gourde played, he was on the ice for over 40 percent of the Kraken’s shorthanded time. Tanev played a whopping 60 percent of the PK minutes when healthy. That’s a huge chunk of the unit gone.
To close out the season, the Kraken leaned on a mix of Chandler Stephenson, Eeli Tolvanen, Matty Beniers, and Jared McCann to pick up the slack. But it was clear they needed a more permanent solution, and that’s where Gaudreau fits in.
Why Gaudreau matters: face-offs and flexibility
One of the sneakier aspects of the Gaudreau trade is what it means for penalty kill face-offs, especially on the right side of the ice. Until now, the Kraken have primarily relied on left-shot centers on the PK, which creates a strong-side/weak-side imbalance. A lefty takes draws better on the left dot; a righty does better on the right. That small edge matters, especially on the penalty kill when a clean face-off win can lead to an instant clear. (For more background on this topic, check this post about the face-off scenarios from 2023.)
With Gaudreau, the Kraken now have a right-shot PK center for the first time in a while. Yes, Mitchell Stephens played a few games last season, but the team has been lacking a consistent right-shot option. Gaudreau gives them the ability to deploy by specific dot, which should help them win more defensive-zone draws and the subsequent possession that will lead to more zone clears. That, in turn, leads to more time killed.
Here’s a look at the defensive-zone shorthanded face-off numbers for Gaudreau and Stephenson:
Expect Stephenson’s workload to shift to fewer weak-side draws next season, while Gaudreau will handle a majority of the right dot responsibilities, which is Stephenson’s weak side.
Ryan Lindgren impact on the penalty kill
The Kraken’s only major free-agent signing was 27-year-old defenseman Ryan Lindgren, who inked a four-year deal worth $4.5M AAV. Lindgren brings a strong defensive presence with a propensity to killing penalties, having played 53.8 percent of New York’s shorthanded time before being traded to Colorado.
He’s known for blocking shots, making smart reads, and absorbing minutes on the PK. After he left the Rangers, their PK numbers took a noticeable dip, which tells you something about his impact.
Seattle leaned heavily on Jamie Oleksiak and Adam Larsson last season. Both were on the ice for over 70 percent of the team’s shorthanded minutes. Lindgren’s arrival could help lighten that load, especially for Oleksiak, or it could signal a shift in usage as the team rebalances its D pairs.
Either way, Lindgren should help make the Kraken’s PK more effective and more sustainable over an 82-game season.
Big picture impact
Zooming out, I always like to look at net goal differential as a shorthand for playoff potential. That’s goals for minus goals against, excluding empty-netters. In general, teams with a positive net differential tend to make the playoffs. Last season, only the Rangers missed the playoffs despite a positive net differential, and a couple teams with negative differentials still snuck in.
So, what’s the potential impact of a better penalty kill?
Let’s say the Kraken improve from 77.2 percent to 80 percent PK efficiency this season, and they’re shorthanded the same 193 times. That translates to 5.4 fewer goals against over the season. It doesn’t sound like much, but in a tight playoff race, that can be the difference between golfing in April and grabbing a Wild Card spot.
Final thoughts
The Kraken have not made a splashy move this summer, but they made smart ones. The additions of Frédérick Gaudreau and Ryan Lindgren quietly patch one of the holes in Seattle’s roster, the penalty kill. The moves did not garner massive headlines, but they will help win games. Plus, the cost was cheap, and with draft capital and cap space, Seattle still has doors open elsewhere.
I am not suggesting that the upgrades in the penalty kill will get this team in playoff contention, but if they are going to play meaningful games in March, they are going to need contributions and improvements from a lot of places. The penalty kill is one of those areas of opportunity.
The first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs is in the books, and for fans needing to scratch the hockey itch, the postseason has delivered. There were thrilling matchups and shocking exits. Both the Colorado Avalanche and Tampa Bay Lightning failed to advance. Fans were treated to two Game 7s, including a thriller in which the Winnipeg Jets tied the game with just 1.6 seconds remaining, then completed the comeback in double-overtime.
With the second round now underway, let’s take a look at each series. No wild card teams made it through, and every team remaining has a legitimate shot to hoist the Stanley Cup. Buckle up—these are going to be fierce battles.
Let’s start in the East!
Washington Capitals vs Carolina Hurricanes
Blaiz’s prediction: Washington in seven
The Capitals have been surprising teams all year and finished as the best team in the East. The first round of the playoffs did not change that perception, and Washington will move on to the conference finals.
Washington Capitals
Washington survived a physical series with Montreal. The Canadiens out-hit the Capitals in four of five games, and though the series ended in five, it was tighter than the final line suggests. Montreal’s young core showed promise for the future.
Carolina Hurricanes
The Jack Hughes-less Devils were expected to struggle without their star forward. Still, they made Carolina work for every inch. The Hurricanes showed resiliency in the clincher, erasing a 3-0 deficit and winning in double overtime to close out the series in five games.
Regular season matchups
The teams split the season series 2-2. Carolina won both its games in regulation, while Washington needed a shootout in one of its wins.
How Carolina advances
The Hurricanes play a disciplined dump-and-chase system, excelling in puck possession and shot suppression. They allowed the fewest shots in the NHL this season (24.9 per game) and led the league in unblocked shot attempts (50.3) per moneypuck.com. That kind of volume imbalance wins games.
Frederik Andersen and Pyotr Kochetkov shared duties in the crease. Andersen was knocked out in Game 4 after a collision with Timo Meier. Kochetkov, who played 57 games during the season, closed out the first-round series, but Andersen is practicing and expected to start Game 1 against Washington.
One concern: Carolina struggled on the road, going 16-21-4 this season. Without home-ice advantage, they’ll need to steal one in Washington to stay in control.
How Washington advances
The Capitals thrive in physical games, and Carolina won’t bring that same intensity. Washington must stay aggressive but disciplined.
The Caps averaged the second-most goals in the NHL (286) but were held to just 23 shots per game by Carolina in the regular season. Still, Logan Thompson posted a .923 save percentage and 2.23 GAA in Round 1, providing a strong backstop.
A notable moment: On April 2, Washington lost 5-1 to Carolina in a game that saw 142 combined penalty minutes. Most of the chaos came after the game was already out of reach, but that kind of game could still disrupt the Hurricanes’ structure—expect Tom Wilson to test that theory.
Toronto Maple Leafs vs Florida Panthers
Blaiz’s prediction: Toronto in seven
The Maple Leafs play just as well on the road as they do at home. They just need to stick to their game and not overreact when they lose a game or three. They nearly coughed up a 4-1 lead in Game 1 on Monday but held on for a 5-4 win to take an early series lead.
Toronto Maple Leafs
The Maple Leafs are in their best position to win a Cup in decades. They won their division for the first time in 25 years and dispatched Ottawa in six games, three of which went to overtime. It was only their second series win in their last 10 playoff appearances.
Florida Panthers
The reigning champs made quick work of the Tampa Bay Lightning, eliminating them in five games. Florida stumbled into the playoffs with a 3-6-1 finish, but it got a boost when Matthew Tkachuk returned from a lower-body injury that cost him the final 25 regular-season games.
Regular season matchups
Florida won the season series 3-1. Toronto scored just four goals in its three losses, though two of those games were decided by one goal—not counting empty-netters.
How Toronto advances
Auston Matthews needs to show up. He had only two goals in the first round, including a minus-four performance in a Game 5 shutout loss. He bounced back in Game 6, scoring the opening goal. Toronto will need full buy-in from its stars to advance.
Anthony Stolarz, who backed up Florida during their 2024 Cup run, has been excellent for Toronto this season and has led the NHL in save percentage two seasons in a row. He left Game 1 midway through the second period after taking a couple of shots to the head. If he’s unavailable, Joseph Woll—who started 41 games this season—will step in. Woll looked shaky in Game 1 but gave Toronto just enough saves to preserve the win.
Home ice could matter. Florida had a winning road record, but only just barely (20-19-2). Toronto was 27-13-1 at home and nearly identical on the road. Sound Of Hockey looked at this earlier in the year and found home teams are called for 3.2 percent fewer penalties on average. Staying disciplined will be key.
How Florida advances
Tkachuk, Sam Bennett, and Brad Marchand are elite agitators who can draw penalties. Per moneypuck.com the Panthers ranked fourth in the NHL in penalties drawn, and they scored five power-play goals against Toronto in the regular season.
But Florida also brings skill. Aleksander Barkov and Sam Reinhart lead the offense. Florida averaged 3.00 goals per game (15th in NHL), compared to Toronto’s 3.26 (seventh). Sergei Bobrovsky doesn’t post gaudy numbers but is a proven playoff performer, despite his uninspiring performance in Game 1. He just needs to keep the Leafs’ stars quiet.
Winnipeg Jets vs Dallas Stars
Blaiz’s prediction: Winnipeg in five
The Presidents’ Trophy winners have been solid all season, starting 15-1 to become the fastest team in NHL history to reach 15 wins. The first round pushed the Jets to the limit, but they faced the hottest team in hockey—the St. Louis Blues—who had won 12 straight late in the regular season and rode that confidence into the playoffs. The Jets will get back to their game and take care of Dallas. Expect to see more of the Winnipeg white-out in these playoffs.
Winnipeg Jets
Winnipeg needed seven games and double OT to escape the St Louis Blues. Cole Perfetti’s goal with 1.6 seconds left forced OT—the latest game-tying goal in a Game 7 in NHL history.
Dallas Stars
Dallas limped into the playoffs after losing seven straight but was able to hold onto home ice advantage in its matchup with the Colorado Avalanche. After trading wins through six games, Colorado held a 2-0 lead entering the third period of Game 7. Then Mikko Rantanen erupted for a hat trick and four points, lifting Dallas to a comeback series win and a storybook moment against the Finn’s former team.
Regular season matchup
Winnipeg dominated the series 3-1, allowing just five goals in four games (one of which was an empty-netter). Connor Hellebuyck and Jake Oettinger started all four games against each other. Hellebuyck posted a .965 save percentage, while Oettinger struggled and was pulled once.
How Winnipeg advances
Hellebuyck is the likely 2024-25 Vezina winner, with a 2.00 GAA and .925 save percentage. He struggled in Round 1 (.830 save percentage) and will need to bounce back. Winnipeg’s power play led the NHL at 28.9 percent, so special teams will be critical.
Injuries to Mark Scheifele and Josh Morrissey loom large, though both are day-to-day. If one or both return for Game 1, that’s a huge boost.
How Dallas advances
Dallas was solid all year, but the Stars have looked shaky for a month. They need to re-establish their game and get healthier. Jason Robertson and Miro Heiskanen are both on their way back from injuries, which would be a huge boost. After eliminating the Colorado Avalanche in Game 7, head coach Pete DeBoer said, “I believe you’re going to see them both play in the second round, but I don’t know if it’s going to be Game 1 or Game 3 or Game 5.”
Oettinger has to be better. He struggled in all four games against Winnipeg during the regular season, including one appearance where he was pulled. Rantanen needs to be consistent—he had just one point in the first four games, then exploded for 11 in the final three. That version of Rantanen gives Dallas a real shot.
Vegas Golden Knights vs Edmonton Oilers
Blaiz’s prediction: Vegas in six
I don’t like this pick; I don’t like it at all. If I’ve learned anything from Vegas Golden Knights’ eight seasons in the NHL, it’s to never count them out. I keep thinking they’re going to collapse, but they just keep winning. After taking the Pacific Division, I feel obligated to pick them here as well. Maybe it’s reverse psychology—hopefully this jinx works and Edmonton advances.
Vegas Golden Knights
Vegas beat Minnesota in six, but the series was close. Game 5 swung the series when an apparent game-winning goal for Minnesota was overturned after dual reviews for a kicking motion and then offside. Gustav Nyquist was confirmed to be offside before the goal, and Vegas went on to win in OT, then closed it out in Game 6.
Edmonton Oilers
The Oilers fell behind in every game against the Los Angeles Kings, but rallied four times to win the series in six. Calvin Pickard replaced Stuart Skinner after Game 2 and won four straight.
Regular season matchup
The season series was split 2-2. The first three games were played earlier in the season, which can sometimes make the outcome less indicative of current playoff form. Edmonton won the final meeting 3-2 on April 1.
How Vegas advances
The Golden Knights finished third in the NHL during the regular season and had the third-best goal differential (+60). Their power play was second-best (28.3 percent), and their defense limited shots to just 26.1 per game (fourth fewest). They’ll need to contain McDavid’s speed and play their structured game.
Adin Hill posted a respectable .906 save percentage, but his 2.47 GAA ranks sixth in the NHL. The team protects him well, and he’s been dependable.
How Edmonton advances
The Oilers’ resiliency was impressive, but constantly chasing games is not sustainable. They need better starts.
It’s unclear if Skinner or Pickard will start Game 1. Pickard was solid in his appearances but played a “bend-don’t-break” type of game. Goaltending has always been a question mark for this club, and it remains so now. Edmonton may simply ride the hot hand for the rest of the playoffs. While stealing a game would be a bonus, the goalie’s job in Edmonton (more so than for other playoff teams) is to keep the Oilers in it and give their stars a chance to win.
Edmonton leads the NHL in shots per game (32.0). Vegas limits those chances well, so the Oilers will need to get the puck to the net and capitalize.
Sound Of Hockey picks
Every team left has a path to the Final. There is no runaway favorite and no true Cinderella story. Here’s how the Sound Of Hockey crew sees the Cup Final shaping up. I’m sensing a trend here…
Wrapping up
The only bummer about the second round is that we go from four games per night to two. Still, the matchups are strong and should not disappoint.
Leave your picks for the second round and Cup winner in the comments!
Blaiz Grubic
Blaiz Grubic is a contributor at Sound Of Hockey. A passionate hockey fan and player for over 30 years, Blaiz grew up in the Pacific Northwest and is an alumni of Washington State University (Go Cougs!). When he’s not playing, watching, or writing about hockey, he enjoys quality time with his wife and daughter or getting out on a golf course for a quick round. Follow @blaizg on BlueSky or X.
We’re at that point in the season when the Seattle Kraken are playing games that no longer have playoff implications. I still enjoy tuning in, but it’s undeniably more fun when they win or battle hard in close contests.
The decreasing importance of the games got us at Sound Of Hockey thinking about how to prevent tanking in the NHL—the act of deliberately icing a subpar roster in hopes of losing and landing a higher draft pick.
Let’s walk through the pros and cons of tanking, and explore some ideas to prevent it.
NHL Entry Draft
Prior to the 1995-96 season, draft position was solely based on the previous season’s standings. The last-place team automatically got the first pick, effectively rewarding teams for tanking. So in 1995, the NHL introduced the draft lottery to curb that trend.
Today, all 16 non-playoff teams are entered into the draft lottery. The last-place team has a 25.5 percent chance at the first overall pick, with the odds decreasing incrementally up to the 17th-place team, which has a 0.5 percent chance. However, teams can only move up a maximum of 10 spots. So, for example, if the 14th-place team is drawn first, they only jump to the fourth overall pick, and the last-place team retains the first overall selection.
Two lottery draws are made: one for the first overall pick and one for the second. The remaining picks are slotted in based on the final standings.
This system is designed to help teams at the bottom rebuild by drafting the top players. A key benefit is that it adds unpredictability to the draft order, keeping hope alive for teams just outside the playoffs. But the downside is clear: bottom teams still have the best odds, and teams that barely miss the playoffs often end up stuck in the murky middle.
Rewarded for losing
Under the current system, the last-place team is guaranteed a top-three pick and holds the best odds to land the first overall selection. It’s an improvement over the pre-lottery format, but the core issue remains: the worst teams are still rewarded more than those who narrowly miss the playoffs.
The Kraken have yet to pick first overall in their young history, but they’ve benefited from the system. In their inaugural season, a postponed game, originally scheduled for April 13, against the Winnipeg Jets was rescheduled to May 1—after the NHL playoffs had already begun. The Kraken held a 3-1 lead after two periods, but Winnipeg stormed back with three goals in 4:16 to win 4-3. It looked like a meaningless game, but the outcome mattered. A Kraken win would have meant finishing 28th; a loss placed them 29th. That one loss kept them below the Philadelphia Flyers and ahead of them in the draft order. The New Jersey Devils eventually won the second lottery draw, bumping Seattle to the fourth overall pick.
With the fourth overall pick in the 2022 NHL Draft, the Kraken selected Shane Wright. Had they won that final game, they would have picked fifth, and Wright might be wearing orange as a Philadelphia Flyer. As of March 25, Wright leads all 2022 first-round picks in career points per 60 minutes at 2.481. Logan Cooley ranks second at 2.410.
I’m not saying Seattle tanked during its inaugural season—playoff expectations were high after Vegas’s expansion success—but it’s a good example of how losing can still be rewarded under the current system.
Burn Point Threshold
I love the competitive nature of hockey and want teams to strive for wins without being penalized for it. While the current lottery discourages blatant tanking, it still rewards losing and punishes late-season wins, leaving teams stuck between integrity and draft position.
Enter the Burn Point Threshold, or BPT—a system I created to eliminate tanking incentives while still supporting struggling teams.
Under BPT, all 16 non-playoff teams enter the draft lottery with equal odds—one entry each, no weighted balls, no rewards for finishing lower. The draft order is then shaped by a point-based threshold.
Here’s how it works:
Each non-playoff team is assigned “burn points” (BP) on a sliding scale based on standings: 32nd place gets one point, 31st gets two points, 30th gets three points, and so on up to 17th place, which gets 16 points.
The lottery draws teams at random, one at a time.
As teams are drawn, their burn points are subtracted from a 16-point threshold.
Once the burn total reaches or exceeds 16, the lottery ends.
The drawn teams receive the top picks in the order selected. Remaining teams are slotted in by reverse standings starting after the last lottery pick. In this system, the number of lottery picks is dynamic. If a playoff bubble team draws the first overall pick, the draft ends sooner, allowing lower teams to still get decent selections. But if teams near the bottom of the standings are drawn, the lottery continues until the point threshold is met or exceeded. This levels the playing field by giving equal odds to all non-playoff teams, reducing the incentive to finish last.
Burn Point Threshold examples
Here are a couple of examples of how a draft could play out:
Let’s say the 24th-place team (nine BP), the 27th-place team (six BP), and the 31st-place team (two BP) are drawn. That adds up to 17 burn points—lottery over. Those teams pick first, second, and third in the order they were drawn. The 32nd-place team would pick fourth overall.
In a separate scenario, the 17th-place team (16 BP) hits on the first draw. The lottery ends immediately. That team picks first overall, and the rest of the draft proceeds in reverse standings order, starting with the 32nd-place team picking second overall.
Data for Burn Point Threshold
We simulated 10,000 draft lotteries to test fairness and function.
In BPT, every non-playoff team has an equal shot at the first overall pick. But since the lottery ends at 16 burn points, the two last-place teams never will get less than a sixth overall pick and 99.3 percent of the time will get a top-five pick. It’s not a flat-odds system—it’s a fair-odds system.
Here are the percentages for each pick in the 10,000 draft simulations.
Pros of Burn Point Threshold
The BPT model brings a dynamic element to the draft process, introducing an increased level of unpredictability while ensuring teams aren’t penalized for competing and winning. All non-playoff teams start on equal footing while still guaranteeing the last-place team a top-six pick through the burn point structure.
It strikes a balance between fairness and function—every team gets a chance, but those who struggled still have an opportunity to land a high pick. The result is a draft system that rewards effort and maintains meaningful competition until the final horn of the season.
Tweaking the BPT model
One of the strengths of the Burn Point Threshold (BPT) system is its flexibility. The core structure—equal odds, a point-based cutoff, and reverse-standings fallback—provides a solid foundation to build on. Here are two simple, impactful ways to tweak BPT without compromising its integrity:
16+1 Rule: Requires one additional team to be drawn after the 16-point threshold is reached, guaranteeing at least two lottery winners and adding a little extra suspense to the process.
Adjustable Threshold: Raising the burn point threshold (to 20, 24, etc.) increases the number of lottery picks and spreads top selections more evenly. Lower thresholds keep the lottery shorter and offer greater protection for the league’s worst teams. I used 16 points in the initial model to emphasize support for struggling teams. But the threshold is fully adjustable. If tanking remains a concern, the league can raise the threshold. This extends the lottery, adds unpredictability, and makes it harder to game the system. At the same time, it gives the league control over how broadly top picks are distributed.
Here is how the draft pick odds change when using 24 BP, instead of 16 (10,000 simulations):
Other options to prevent tanking
There are several other proposals aimed at discouraging tanking while still supporting struggling teams. While we won’t dive into all of them here, two of the more popular ideas are “The Gold Plan” and a single-elimination tournament.
The Gold Plan
“The Gold Plan” was created by Adam Gold, hence the name. This idea awards draft order based on performance after a team is mathematically eliminated from playoff contention. The more points a team earns after elimination, the higher their draft position.
It adds competitive meaning to late-season games and may encourage teams to retain key players instead of offloading them at the trade deadline. However, one drawback is that it could incentivize teams to tank earlier in the season just to reach elimination sooner and start banking points.
Another idea is a March Madness-style bracket for all non-playoff teams to determine draft order. It’s exciting in theory but raises concerns. Would players risk injury in meaningless games? Would expiring-contract players want to jeopardize future deals? This concept is fun on paper, but it would be tough to implement in practice.
If it ain’t broke don’t fix it
Some fans are fine with tanking and think the current system works. Tanking doesn’t guarantee the first overall pick—just better odds. And it helps bad teams rebuild through the draft. That said, rewarding losses feels flawed. Systems like BPT and The Gold Plan offer a way to level the field without incentivizing losing.
Is tanking a problem in the NHL?
Tanking remains one of the most polarizing aspects of professional sports—especially in leagues like the NHL, where a single draft pick can reshape a franchise’s future when a generational talent enters the mix. While the current system tries to discourage tanking, it still leaves room for strategic underperformance. Fans want to see their teams compete every night—not quietly fold for the sake of odds.
That’s why proposals like the Burn Point Threshold or The Gold Plan deserve consideration. Both aim to reward effort, not apathy, while still helping weaker teams restock talent. Whether it’s a dynamic lottery cap or a post-elimination points race, these systems offer fresh ways to reshape the draft without penalizing teams for playing hard.
What are your thoughts? Should the NHL explore bold changes to prevent tanking? Would you prefer something like BPT or The Gold Plan, or does the current system work well enough?
Share your thoughts in the comments below!
Blaiz Grubic
Blaiz Grubic is a contributor at Sound Of Hockey. A passionate hockey fan and player for over 30 years, Blaiz grew up in the Pacific Northwest and is an alumni of Washington State University (Go Cougs!). When he’s not playing, watching, or writing about hockey, he enjoys quality time with his wife and daughter or getting out on a golf course for a quick round. Follow @blaizg on BlueSky or X.
The Kraken ended the week on a high note, sending us into the 4 Nations Face-Off break with a thrilling come-from-behind win against the Calgary Flames. That game marked the seventh time this season the Kraken have erased a two-goal deficit to win—a feat they accomplished more times this season than in the previous three seasons combined—and they still have 25 games remaining.
In my opinion, the Seattle Kraken’s ability to never quit is what makes this team so enjoyable to watch, but it’s also part of the frustration. They can compete with any opponent for stretches of a game, giving us glimpses of their potential.
Coincidentally, the Kraken nearly pulled off another two-goal comeback earlier in the week against Detroit at Climate Pledge Arena. They scored twice in the final 10 minutes of regulation to force overtime but eventually lost in a shootout. Despite the loss, it was an exciting game to watch. Both Shane Wright and Matty Beniers found the back of the net, while Chandler Stephenson tied the game with his 10th goal of the season with under three minutes left in regulation. On Saturday in Calgary, Wright also had a goal and an assist to lead the comeback charge, and Beniers had the game-winner in OT.
Sandwiched between the shootout loss to Detroit and the overtime win in Calgary was a lackluster effort against the Toronto Maple Leafs. It wasn’t the Kraken’s best game, but they didn’t mail it in either. They trailed 3-0 midway through the second period but got an early third-period goal to make things interesting. Toronto is a talented team with high-end players, and even though their “big four” didn’t score, their presence was felt as they controlled most of the play.
If you had told me heading into the week that the Kraken would take three points from three quality opponents, I would have been happy—and I am. This team continues to compete, and with Shane, Matty, and Kaapo Kakko, I’m still fully engaged as we head down the stretch.
The Kaapo Kakko impact
As everyone should know by now, Kaapo Kakko has been on a resurgence since his trade to the Kraken in mid-December. I’ve previously highlighted the production difference between his time in Seattle versus New York this season, but here’s a quick summary:
The numbers are even more striking when isolating the last 20 games. There’s no doubt he’s been a bright spot over the past six weeks. The Kakko-Beniers-Jaden Schwartz line has been clicking, so let’s take a look at Kakko’s impact on their numbers as well.
Matty’s points-per-game average has risen slightly from 0.515 to 0.583, but his goal production has more than doubled in nine fewer games played. If you extrapolate his nine-goal pace over 24 games across a full season, it projects to a 30-goal pace for Matty.
Shane Wright is staying hot
Another bright spot in recent months has been the emergence of Shane Wright. With two more points on Saturday night, he now sits at exactly a point per game over his last 10 outings. Since being a healthy scratch back in November, he has steadily produced, never dipping below a .5-point-per-game average over any 10-game span.
Between Kakko, Beniers, and Wright, you can see a young core starting to take shape—one that should give fans plenty to be excited about for the rest of the season.
Other Musings
Saturday’s game against Calgary was the 35th time this season the Kraken allowed the first goal. They continue to lead the league in that category.
I’m starting to warm up to the idea of the Kraken extending Yanni Gourde. The team needs a center next season, and Yanni has been a great leader since the inaugural season. It doesn’t need to be a “team-friendly” deal—just a fair one. As with any veteran contract, the term will be the tricky part.
Since Yanni went down with an injury, the Kraken’s penalty kill is just 64.3 percent. It was 77.8 percent before his injury.
Shane played 1:26 in overtime against Detroit last Tuesday—the most OT ice time he’s had all season. He was sitting on two goals at the time, so I wonder if it was an attempt to get him a hat trick or part of a new overtime strategy.
On Saturday, Shane and Matty both scored in the same game for the fourth time in their careers. The Kraken have won three of those four games, with the only loss coming in the shootout against Detroit.
I continue to wonder about Kaapo Kakko’s next contract.
Philipp Grubauer is 2-0 with a .933 save percentage in his first two starts with the Coachella Valley Firebirds since being reassigned.
This entire play was a thing of beauty—and it was even better to witness in person last Tuesday.
#SeaKraken make it interesting. A Tanev stretch pass connects with Stephenson who goes across the goal mouth unencumbered to make it 4-4 with just under three to play
Berkly Catton (SPO/SEA) – A regular in this section, Catton posted eight points in two games this past weekend, including a four-goal game against the Seattle Thunderbirds.
Carson Rehkopf (BRA/SEA) – Another frequent mention, Rehkopf, the Kraken’s 2023 second-round pick, had a six-point night against the Erie Otters. “Razor” remains one of my favorite prospects because he can score from anywhere.
Ready for a wild stat? 🤓#SeaKraken prospect Carson Rehkopf of the @OHLSteelheads scored the 10th hat-trick of his #OHL career on Friday, part of a six-point effort that brings him to 30 goals on the season! 🎥 pic.twitter.com/LNBmNQ2sbJ
Jani Nyman (CVF/SEA) – “Li’l Jani” continues to impress in his first full North American season, recording five points in his last four games. Of all the Kraken prospects, I believe he has the best chance of making the NHL roster next season. Hopefully, we get a glimpse of him at some point later this year.
The week ahead
The entire league is on break for the 4 Nations Face-Off. The Kraken won’t play again until Feb. 22, when they take on the Florida Panthers. I don’t know how many of you are excited to watch the 4 Nations Face-Off, but I certainly am—especially the USA versus Canada matchup on Saturday.
There likely won’t be a Monday Musings next week—unless your comments inspire me.
Over the past month, I’ve written two pieces examining NHL standings—one on NHL standings point models and alternatives, and another as an NHL half-season roundup. While working on these articles, I noticed a trend: most NHL teams perform better at home than on the road. That observation led me to dig deeper. I compiled data from the NHL API since the start of the 2021-22 season to see if the numbers back up the notion of a “home-ice advantage.”
As of Jan. 31, 28 of the 32 NHL teams have boasted better home records compared with their road records over the last three and a half seasons. The four teams that just missed the mark were within five points of their home records: the Vancouver Canucks (even record), the New Jersey Devils (even record), the Buffalo Sabres (three points under) and the Anaheim Ducks (five points under).
It’s good to be home
During the 2021-22, 2022-23, and 2023-24 seasons, home teams enjoyed an average boost of 5.5 percent in standings points earned compared with their road performance. Overall, home teams posted a points percentage of .585, while road teams registered .524. That .585 mark is notable because it surpasses the 95-point pace when extrapolated out—a good measuring stick for playoff contenders.
The home-ice advantage extends to all types of wins—regulation, overtime, and shootout. Regulation wins were 6.8 percent higher for home teams, while overtime and shootout wins were 6.5 percent higher.
The data above covers the last three full seasons, and this season is showing similar trends. As of Jan. 31, home teams have benefited from a 6.8 percent increase in overtime and shootout wins compared to road teams, and a 9.9 percent boost in regulation wins. It should be noted that the current season’s data is partial and may be skewed, as the teams have not yet played an equal number of home and away games against every opponent.
Clearly, there is a consistent boost to the home team’s winning percentage. Now the question is: why?
NHL rules that benefit the home team
A handful of rules benefit the home team, and while most may not directly affect the game’s outcome, one in particular allows coaches to shine.
Last change
When playing at home, the visiting team must put its players on the ice first prior to a face-off. This rule gives the home team’s coaching staff a chance to assess who is on the ice and adjust their lines accordingly—allowing them to dictate matchups. For example, if the away team deploys its top scoring line, the home team can counter with its shutdown line. The only exception is icing; if the home team ices the puck, it is not allowed to change, letting the away team dictate the matchup.
Hockey is a fast-paced sport where line changes happen on the fly, and teams can switch lines in any order during play. The last change rule only applies during stoppages when a face-off is about to occur. During such stoppages, you’ll notice a referee near the team benches: the visiting team has five seconds to make a change before the referee raises their hand and signals that no further changes are allowed by the visitors, and then the home team has eight seconds to adjust before the referee lowers their hand. This rule is outlined in rule 82.2 of the NHL rule book.
Face-offs
In the NHL, players taking a face-off must put the blade of their stick on the ice, making contact with the white part of the face-off dot. Once both players’ sticks are on the ice, the puck is dropped. A common misconception is that the away team must place its stick first. However, according to NHL rule 76.4:
“The sticks of both players facing off shall have the blade on the ice, within the designated white area. At the eight face-off spots (excluding the center-ice face-off spot), the defending player shall place his stick within the designated white area first, followed immediately by the attacking player. When the face-off is conducted at the center-ice face-off spot, the visiting player shall place his stick on the ice first.”
For the home team, the only “benefit” comes at center-ice face-offs, as others are determined based on which zone the face-off is occurring. In theory, if the proper procedure is followed, neither team should have an advantage. In practice, however, the second player sometimes never places his stick on the ice, which can provide an edge. Outside of center-ice, the defending team’s center places his stick first, meaning any home-ice advantage is limited to the center-ice draw.
Looking at face-off data from the 2023-24 season, there were 8,383 center-ice face-offs. The home team won 50.4 percent of these draws, so a benefit, but minor one. This figure may be slightly skewed by the last change rule, as coaches sometimes counter the visiting team’s matchups with lines that are not necessarily their best at winning face-offs. For instance, the Seattle Kraken have typically started either Yanni Gourde’s or Matty Beniers’ line at home. However, Chandler Stephenson leads as the top face-off man, winning 51.7 percent of his draws, while Beniers won 47.8 percent and Gourde 49.9 percent as of Jan. 31.
Regular-season overtime
The last-change rule also applies during 3-on-3 overtime, where controlling matchups is crucial for scoring a timely goal and ending the game. Overall, overtime has favored the home team, which has won 9.6 percent more games in OT than when playing on the road.
Shootout
If a regular-season game remains tied after regulation and 3-on-3 overtime, it goes to a shootout. The home team gets to choose whether to shoot first or second. Over the last few seasons, home teams have opted to shoot first 85.2 percent of the time.
Over the last three and a half seasons, there have been 317 shootouts. In those contests, the home team won 162 times, and the road team won 155 times—a slim 2.2 percent advantage for the home team. If you only consider the teams that shot first, the advantage grows to 5.34 percent. In recent years, the trend has been that more and more NHL teams have have been choosing to shoot first.
One might think that the home team would prefer to shoot last, allowing it to mount a comeback or finish the game on a goal. However, goaltenders hold the edge in shootouts. It appears that home teams are not so much choosing to shoot first as they are opting to “save last.” League-wide, NHL goaltenders have posted a combined stoppage percentage of .679 in these 317 shootouts—meaning that 68 percent of the time, the goalie is more likely to stop the shot than the shooter is to score. I call this a “stoppage percentage” because it includes missed shots, which are not part of a goaltender’s save percentage but still result in a failed shootout attempt.
Penalties
The trend continues when comparing penalties called on teams at home versus on the road. For this analysis, I looked at the raw count of individual penalties—not penalty minutes. A minor, double minor, major, or game misconduct each counts as one penalty. Overall, home teams enjoy a 3.2 percent reduction in penalties called against them.
Over the last three seasons, 26 of 32 NHL teams have accrued fewer penalty minutes at home than on the road. When broken down by division, the benefits vary significantly. Atlantic Division teams saw only a 1.1 percent benefit, Metropolitan teams 2.9 percent, Pacific teams 4.4 percent, and Central Division teams 4.5 percent.
The Calgary Flames have enjoyed the largest home-ice advantage in penalty minutes at 9.2 percent, while Canadian teams overall fared well, with 4.5 percent fewer penalties at home, matching the Central Division. It might be a good time to rethink the hockey tradition of booing the referees as they come onto the ice and haven’t actually done anything yet. Statistically, they tend to side with the home team, especially in the Western Conference. I propose Kraken fans start cheering them on before the game.
The home crowd!
Enough with the numbers—the biggest X-factor in home-ice advantage is the hometown crowd. Nothing fires up a team more than thousands of fans erupting after a big goal, a crushing hit, or some good, old-fashioned fisticuffs at center ice. That energy feeds into the players, creating a momentum shift that can tilt a game. It’s a dopamine hit for the skaters, and the crowd knows it—fans do everything they can to will their team to victory.
This isn’t just superstition; players and coaches often talk about how a raucous home crowd provides an extra edge. It can be the difference between sluggish legs and an adrenaline-fueled surge late in a tight game. That’s why road teams have a strategy—either silence the crowd with an early goal or grind through the first 10 minutes without allowing one. Survive the opening wave, and the crowd might settle. But if the home team scores first? Expect an onslaught of momentum.
Of course, the flip side is also true—when a home team is trailing, and the crowd starts to quiet, that energy can fade. The best teams learn to ride the wave of home-ice advantage but also generate their own spark when things aren’t going their way.
Teams do have an advantage at home
Overall, the last change and shootout options come down to the coaching staff’s ability to capitalize on the slight advantages presented to their team. The Kraken have seen a 2.1 percent boost in their performance at home, making use of the home-ice advantage. In the penalty department, Seattle has 2.3 percent fewer penalties called on them at home than on the road. Both numbers are positive for playing at Climate Pledge Arena, but they fall short of the league averages of 5.5 percent for standings points and 3.2 percent for penalties.
While these boosts might seem modest, they do add up over the course of a season. There’s one more key factor that could tilt the scales for the Kraken, though: us—the fans.
What are your thoughts on home-ice advantage? Put them in the comments below.
Blaiz Grubic
Blaiz Grubic is a contributor at Sound Of Hockey. A passionate hockey fan and player for over 30 years, Blaiz grew up in the Pacific Northwest and is an alumni of Washington State University (Go Cougs!). When he’s not playing, watching, or writing about hockey, he enjoys quality time with his wife and daughter or getting out on a golf course for a quick round. Follow @blaizg on BlueSky or X.
