The Kraken have earned five out of a possible six points in their last three games and have a good opportunity to conclude the schedule before the break with two points against San Jose on Tuesday night.
The team has looked dominant at times over the latest stretch of games but has not put a complete effort together. Ironically, the best game of the three was probably against St. Louis, where the Kraken held a two-goal lead late in the second period but eventually lost in overtime.
Kraken lines
When Andre Burakovsky returned from injury, coach Dave Hakstol eased him into the lineup by placing him on the fourth line. He has been doing the same thing with Matty Beniers since his return from injury on Friday. It will be interesting to see how the lines shake out after the break.
Before the injury that forced him out for several games, Matty looked good on the top line, but the current top trio of Jared McCann, Jordan Eberle, and Tomas Tatar has been humming. They have scored six goals over the last three games, roughly 50 percent of the Kraken’s goals over that span. I doubt Hakstol would change anything on the Yanni Gourde, Oliver Bjorkstrand, and Eeli Tolvanen line, so that leaves very few pieces to shuffle in the lineup.
I have always liked seeing Alex Wennberg centering Andre Burakovsky. They look comfortable, but I have not noticed sustained offensive pressure from that line. Burakovsky has missed a lot of hockey over the last year and still hasn’t really hit his stride, but there have been moments over the last week where he’s looked close to breaking out.
Squandered a point or three
On the surface, the loss against St. Louis looks like a squandered point, but it was really a three-point swing. The Kraken dominated play for most of the game, but they kept the Blues around when they could have put them away earlier in the match. Had Seattle closed it out in overtime, the Kraken would have 53 points in the standings right now, and the Blues would have 52. Instead, the Kraken have 52 points, and St. Louis has 54. That is a three-point difference. And, heck, if they had closed the Blues out in regulation, St. Louis would only have 50!
Other Musings
Since convincing myself that face-offs do not matter last week, the Kraken have won the face-off battle in two out of the last three games. They won both of those games, but face-offs still don’t matter.
The Kings’ decline has been fascinating to see. They will turn it around at some point, but with a win Tuesday, the Kraken will tie the Kings in standings points.
There is a metric I look at from time to time called “net goals.” I define net goals as “goals for minus goals against, excluding all empty-net goals.” I looked at several seasons of data and determined that a team with a “net goals” value of zero for the season has a 60-percent chance of making the playoffs. Here is the running total of net goals for the season for the Kings and the Kraken.
The New York Islanders (.529) and Florida Panthers (.519) had a points percentage just below the current Seattle Kraken (.531) percentage at this time last season and both made the playoffs. This playoff hunt is going to be very stressful. I can’t wait.
This is the latest in a season the Seattle Kraken have a better points percentage at home (.542) than on the road (.520). Last season, they were better on the road than at home the entire season.
The Kraken could really do themselves a favor during the month of March by establishing a true home-ice advantage. They have 10 home games and four road games in the month of March.
Whenever I say anything critical about Tye Kartye, he goes out and scores a goal or two, so here it goes… Kartye has mostly met my expectations this year, but offensively, he has been cold of late. It would be nice to see him produce, especially with Matty as his center.
The loss of Jaycob Megna on waivers puts the Kraken in a little bit of a tough spot with no defensive depth other than Evans, who they would probably prefer to see playing games versus healthy scratch. Seattle does have right-shot Cale Fleury waiting in the wings if needed.
Evans has not played since Jan. 21 against the Toronto Maple Leafs. I would expect him to be sent down over the All-Star break and bye week. Coachella Valley plays three games in four days this week. What Seattle does with its defense after the break will be interesting.
We have talked about the Kraken’s pending unrestricted free agents a lot lately. Assuming he still wants to play in Seattle, I could see Jordan Eberle signing an extension before the season is done. He has a six-game point streak with nine points over that stretch.
Player performance
Jared McCann – Has six goals and 13 points over the last nine games. He has been a key contributor in the Kraken’s success as of late.
Shane Wright – Wright has nine points in his last eight games playing for the Coachella Valley Firebirds. Maybe the Kraken brass knows what it is doing by letting him develop in the AHL this season.
Scott Ratzlaff – Seattle Thunderbirds goalie Scott Ratzlaff saved 96 of 100 shots he faced in back-to-back games this week, including 62 of 63 in a 3-1 win over the Everett Silvertips on Saturday. Math tells me that was a .960 save percentage. He was named the WHL Goalie of the Week. Ratzlaff was drafted by the Buffalo Sabres in the 2023 NHL Entry Draft.
Chart of the Week
One of the keys to the Kraken’s success lately has been special teams (power play and penalty kill). They are not overly dominant on either of them, but they have been good in both categories. Here is a look at the team’s power play and penalty kill over their last 20 games.
What I love about this play is how quickly he gets his shot off.
The week ahead
There is only one Kraken game before the All-Star break/bye week, and that is Tuesday against the San Jose Sharks. Seattle is playing relatively well right now, so the expectation is they will come away with a win, but any team can beat any team in the NHL.
The Sharks are tied for last in the league with 30 points in 49 games, but they have wins against Edmonton, Vancouver, Winnipeg, and the New York Rangers. Coach Dave Hakstol seemed to know that the team could be walking into a trap in his post-game media availability after the Columbus game on Sunday night, saying “We have one game left before a long break, so we have to get our heads completely focused on that job and make sure that we are ready to go for a real competitive 60 minutes.”
A win against the Sharks will (at least temporarily) put the Kraken tied in points with at least one of the current wild-card teams.
With the break coming up, it is a great time to assign me some research work. If you have any suggestions for areas you want me to dig into, please leave your thoughts in the comments.
This is Part II of What the Kraken can do with their pending unrestricted free agents. Part I can be found here. In Part I, we reviewed the Seattle’s pending UFA’s that are over 30 years old and outlined what can be done with each of the four players. For Part II, we will shift our focus to the trio of UFA’s under 30 years old.
Kraken UFA players
For review, these are the seven pending UFA’s in question, split by over/under 30 years of age.
Alex Wennberg (Age 29) – Target: re-sign for four years at $4.5 million AAV
Alex Wennberg was signed to a three-year, $13.5M deal as a free agent in the days following the Expansion Draft. Wennberg is one of the more divisive players on the Kraken, as fans either love what he brings to the team or desperately want him to shoot more.
Let’s start this with a little quiz, but don’t worry; it will be easy. (Hint: The answer to every question is “Alex Wennberg.”)
Iron-man Adam Larsson has played every Kraken game, but who is next in games played? Wennberg. 208 games and counting.
What Kraken forward has the most blocked shots in franchise history? Wennberg. 156. The next closest forward is Brandon Tanev at 121.
What forward has averaged the most ice time per game over the first three seasons? Wennberg. 18:23 average time-on-ice per game. He also averages the highest power-play-plus-penalty-kill time of any forward on the team with a 3:50 (PP: 2:06, PK 1:44) average per game.
Most face-offs taken? Wennberg. He has led in the number of face-offs taken overall in every Kraken season.
Who leads the Kraken in percentage of high-danger shots at 15.38 percent? Wennberg.
What player leads the team in takeaways minus giveaways? Wennberg. He leads the team in both takeaways at 158 and takeaways minus giveaways at 88. “Best friend of the pod,” Alison Lukan, wrote a great article on this topic last year.
How did you do on the quiz? If you got less than seven out of seven, feel free to try again. Remember the answer is “Wennberg.”
The Swedish center is trusted in all situations on the ice, consistently rolled out on the PP and PK, and is defensively sound. To address the amount of shots Wennberg takes, this is nothing new to his playing style, but the key to focus on is that he opts to pass rather than take low-percentage shots. But he takes high-percentage shots as they are available. Here is a heatmap of Wennberg’s shot attempts this season, as found on Moneypuck.com.
The following three trades were used for comparison (player name, age when traded):
Andrew Copp (Age 27) – The New York Rangers sent first-, second-, and fifth-round picks plus an AHL prospect to Winnipeg in 2022.
Lars Eller (Age 32) – Colorado traded a second-round pick to Washington in 2023.
Eric Staal (Age 36) – Buffalo fetched third- and fifth-round picks from Montreal in 2021.
At 29, Wennberg should fall somewhere between the Eller and Copp trades, if Seattle decides to move him. A first-round return might be asking a bit much, but a second-rounder and an additional pick is more practical.
Shane Wright is developing in the AHL and will look to make the Kraken next year. This does create a log jam in the center position if Wennberg stays, but having too many centers is a good thing, and the Kraken have options with the current rostered players that can play both wing and center. We would rather see Wright make the team first and eventually ease him into a top-six center role. Keeping Wennberg around gives them the ability to do that.
Wennberg, a former first-round pick, has a 10-team modified no-trade clause (M-NTC).
What it would take to re-sign Wennberg?
Three comparable contracts were used (player name, contract terms, age when signed):
Vincent Trocheck (seven year at $5.625M AAV, signing age 29) – First-line center averaging over 21 minutes per game. This physical forward also plays in all situations and averages 50-60 points a season. It helps that Artemi Panarin plays on his wing.
Phillip Danault (six years at $5.5M AAV, signing age 28) – Shutdown center that has a scoring touch, tallying over 50 points in each of the past two seasons.
Alexander Kerfoot (two years at $3.5M AAV, signing age 28) – Since joining Arizona, Kerfoot has played both PP and PK minutes. He has a career average of ~40 points a season.
Wennberg is currently at $4.5M AAV, so he falls in the middle of these contracts, and that is about right. Both Trocheck and Danault were able to sign longer-term deals due to their skill sets. The defensive-minded Wennberg is in the same camp and will be looking for the longest term possible (four-plus years).
We think the Seattle Kraken will look to capitalize on his early 30’s and try for another three-year deal. We see the AAV landing in the $4-$5.5M range with a three-to-five-year term.
Chris Driedger (Age 29) – Target: Let walk
The goaltender was the Kraken’s Expansion Draft pick from the Florida Panthers after he compiled 21 wins and a .930 save percentage over two years. Unfortunately, the Canadian netminder has not panned out in Seattle, posting an .899 save percentage in the inaugural season before getting injured in the IIHF World Championship in 2022. Since that time, Driedger has only played two NHL games and spent the rest of his time in the AHL.
The WHL product cleared waivers after this season’s training camp, as other NHL teams did not want any part of his $3.5M cap hit.
With Philipp Grubauer being activated off injured reserve Tuesday, Driedger was re-assigned to the Coachella Valley Firebirds. A trade still could happen, but there are currently teams in need of goaltending, and a deal has yet to be done. This indicates his cap hit and small sample size, since returning from injury, are issues. The Kraken will most likely keep Driedger as an insurance plan in the AHL, in case there is a future goalie injury. We foresee Seattle letting Driedger and his 10-team M-NTC walk at the end of the season.
Devin Shore (Age 29) – Target: Trade for a fifth-round pick
The veteran of over 400 games is the perfect depth insurance policy. He can play center or wing and jump up and down the lineup as needed. Having this flexibility is something that NHL clubs in the playoffs value. Shore is on a two-way contract, meaning he is paid $250K in the AHL and the league-minimum $775K when with the Kraken.
The following two trades were used for comparison (player name, age when traded):
Curtis Lazar (27) – New Jersey sent a fourth-round pick to Vancouver in 2023.
Ryan Carpenter (31) – Calgary traded a fifth-round pick to Chicago in 2022.
In return for Shore, a fourth- or fifth-round pick could be expected.
Overall
Trades are hard to predict, and we don’t see the Kraken pulling the trigger to sell, as long as they have a path to the playoffs. Another aspect that was not covered is the NHL salary cap is expected to go up to $87.7M next year, so every team is going to have some extra flexibility.
Please comment on what trades you feel are possible and if the Kraken should re-sign or trade their existing UFA’s. If you missed part I, you can find it here.
Next project is to review the Kraken’s restricted free agents (RFA), so look for that in the coming weeks.
Most of my “Musings” do not come to me until the final Kraken game has been played for the week, so with a Sunday-night game against Toronto this week, I’m required to push the Monday Musings to Tuesday. For all of you who were refreshing your browser on Monday looking for these Musings, sorry, but “my process” is my process. (Foreshadowing: The Kraken have another Sunday game this coming week.)
Alright, the Kraken are streaking again!!! But, not in a good way. Seattle has now dropped four games since it won nine games in a row. Sickness, injuries, and now a suspension have made this stretch particularly challenging. To the credit of the players, I feel the effort was there in three of the four games, but the Kraken have zero points to show for it.
I talked about it on the Sound Of Hockey Podcast last week, but the high-end talent is abundantly obvious when they play against the likes of the New York Rangers, Edmonton Oilers, and Toronto Maple Leafs, and is obviously lacking for Seattle. That is not to say the Kraken cannot beat teams with high-end talent, but they need their traditional balanced approach with threats to score on all four lines. With Matty Beniers, Vince Dunn, and Yanni Gourde all out of the lineup, that balanced attack weakened.
Missing Vince Dunn
Dunn might be the most notable departure from the team right now. He had four goals and six assists over his last eight games and was on the ice for close to 50 percent of the Kraken’s power play time over that span. Dunn’s skill is another variable that a defensive unit needs to contend with, which might give opposing teams pause before playing aggressively during the Kraken power play.
The impact is that it opens other opportunities on the power play. Ryker Evans has been ok in backfilling for Dunn but will need a lot more time in the NHL before becoming a dynamic part of the Kraken power play.
Is it time to ignore face-off percentages?
After the Edmonton post-game broadcast, there was a little chatter about the Kraken’s struggles on the face-off dot. We have covered this before, but face-offs are not as meaningful as once considered. There are still a host of old-school believers in the importance of face-offs, which is why it gets discussed as a point of emphasis from time to time.
Let’s look at the Kraken’s face-off percentages this season and the outcomes by game.
It is easy to look at the last four games and point to the face-off percentages as proof that draws are important, but then look at the nine-game win streak. In only one of the nine games during the streak did the Kraken have a winning face-off percentage. Bottom line, there is certainly room for improvement in the face-off circle, but it is not the driving factor for the current string of losses.
Other Musings
There is no denying the Kraken have been struggling to score goals lately, but they are also struggling to get pucks on net. Sunday’s 17 shots versus the Toronto Maple Leafs ties a franchise record for the fewest shots on net in any game. The Kraken have now reached a franchise low of shots on net over a 10-game span.
The Kraken are also not drawing a lot of penalties right now. Only the San Jose Sharks have fewer power-play opportunities per game in January.
Based on historical records, I put the Kraken’s playoff chances at 22 percent. If they get six points out of a possible eight before the All-Star break, their chances jump to 32 percent. They increase to 40 percent if they manage eight out of eight.
I believe if this team can get and stay healthy for the rest of the season, they can make the playoffs and disrupt any opponent with their balanced lineup, just like last year. Health remains a big question mark, though.
Alex Wennberg played 14 minutes of Auston Matthews’ 21 minutes of time on ice Sunday. Wennberg’s contributions are appreciated.
I still think about the below play and wonder if it would have changed the outcome of the game against the Oilers.
Oh, that stinks. Joey Daccord makes an incredible stretch pass to Alex Wennberg, who scores, but Kailer Yamamoto was changing lines offside on the other side of the ice.
As much as I love Wennberg, it is hard to imagine he will re-sign with Seattle and is likely a trade candidate if the Kraken are out of the playoff picture come Trade Deadline. If Wennberg is traded, I expect Shane Wright to be called up and stick with the Kraken for the remainder of the season.
Andre Burakovsky still looks like he is struggling out there. He has one of the best shots on the team but has been off so far. He may need a few more games to settle back into his normal game.
Player performances
Jagger Firkus – Firkus continues to be incredible playing for the Moose Jaw Warriors. He had a hat trick on Friday against Swift Current and is averaging three points per game since returning from the IIHF World Junior Championship.
David Goyette – Another second-round selection for the Kraken has seven points over his last three games playing for the Sudbury Wolves in the OHL.
Oscar Fisker Mølgaard – A friend of the Sound Of Hockey pod and yet another second-round draft pick of the Seattle Kraken, Fisker Mølgaard has points in five straight games playing for HV71 in the top Swedish league. He has six points over those five games after notching just seven points in his prior 28 games. Oscar is still just 18 years old.
Remember how I said face-offs don’t matter? Well, one area I obsess on is the lack of face-off wins when killing a penalty. My logic is simple; if you win face-offs while killing a penalty in the defensive zone, you increase your chances to clear the puck and killing 15 to 20 seconds off the clock, thus limiting the number of shot attempts during the penalty kill.
AH HA! The data says the Seattle Kraken are the second worst at winning face-offs when killing penalties in the defensive zone. This confirms my eyes, correct? Well, sort of, but my logic might be flawed.
If my assertion is correct, a team’s penalty kill percentage should go up as its short-handed face-off win percentage in the defensive zone goes up. It would be illustrated in the graph with a trend line going from bottom left to upper right.
This visual says quite the opposite. My theory has holes, but it won’t stop me from pointing out that two of Edmonton’s goals last Thursday were after a Kraken defensive-zone face-off loss while Seattle was shorthanded.
Bottom line, there probably is some more research to be done here, but I am becoming more and more skeptical of face-offs as a meaningful stat. If only someone would have told me this before doing all this work.
Goal of the week
Whoa! That is a nasty goal by Jared McCann with 5:36 left.
Theoretically, this should be one of the easier four-game stretches on the schedule, as Seattle faces Chicago, St. Louis, Columbus, and San Jose before the All-Star break/bye week. However, Yanni Gourde still has one more game to sit out due to his suspension, and there is no ETA provided for the return of either Beniers or Dunn. It is critical that the team secures at least four points out of a possible eight, but the Kraken really should aim higher, given the level of competition they will face.
As always, I appreciate the feedback, discussion, and thoughts in the comments section, even if they go against observations in the post. If there are any questions or areas you would like me to explore, leave a comment and I will either respond or post in future articles.
The Kraken are inching closer to a major inflection point in their season, when their front office will need to decide which players with expiring (or soon to expire) contracts should be kept and which ones should be moved on to new teams. As Seattle has floundered over the past week, we’ve begun thinking again about what the team might do if it has to be a seller at the NHL Trade Deadline, which falls on March 8.
In this two-part series, we’re going to look at all the players on expiring contracts, focusing first on the older ones (over 30 years old) in Part I, then shifting in Part II to those under 30.
For Part I, we think it will be a useful exercise to go through each pending UFA, discuss what he brings to the Kraken, and consider if the team should re-sign the player or look to trade him if in a selling position.
Let us start with a definition for unrestricted free agent (UFA). A UFA is a player who is not under contract and is free to sign a deal with any NHL team. Players are considered UFA’s if they are 27 years of age or older or have played at least seven NHL seasons. UFA’s can only negotiate/re-sign with their current team during the season, but once free agency opens in the summer, they can sign anywhere. Talks with other NHL clubs can start after the NHL Draft on June 29, and players can officially sign with other clubs on July 1.
Possible trade returns
It is hard to get exact value of what a player will return in a trade. There are many factors that play into trades, such as team salary cap situation, player age, player performance, salary retainment, and contract term remaining. For this exercise, trades over the last three years were reviewed, and focus was put on trades for rental players that best matched the Kraken player’s position, age, and performance.
By the way, a “rental” is a player targeted in a trade whose contract is expiring at the end of the year. Barring a deal that is too good to pass up, we would only expect the Kraken to sell at the deadline if they are out of the playoff picture. If the team does end up selling, the third-year franchise will be looking to harvest draft picks to augment its prospect pipeline and and grab more chips to hopefully find some star power through the draft.
Notes on re-signing players
There are two main pieces to an NHL contract, average annual salary and term. As players move deeper into their careers, teams want shorter terms, whereas players want longer terms, as this could be their last NHL contract. We will compare some contracts that closely match the Kraken UFA’s performances and ages.
Kraken UFA players
The Seattle Kraken have seven players that will be UFA’s at the end of the season. After realizing it would take a really long article to review all seven players, we have decided to split it up into to two parts.
The players (separated by over/under 30 years old) are:
Jordan Eberle (Age 33) – Target: Re-sign for three years at $5 million AAV
Eberle came to the Kraken as the Expansion Draft pick from the New York Islanders. He is a top-six forward that has been on a 20-goal pace 10 out of his 11 seasons. This campaign is the first season he is off the 20-goal pace. He has played in 982 career games and is set to cross the 1000-game mark in mid-March.
As an alternate captain for his entire tenure with the Kraken, Eberle has played on the top line and provided mentorship to budding young star, Matty Beniers. Eberle is second in Kraken franchise history with 47 goals. Among Eberle’s offensive skill set is a wicked backhand and some smooth hands in tight spaces. His current contract comes with a $5.5M cap hit.
Trade return possibilities:
The following three trades were used for comparison (player name, age when traded):
Calle Jarnkrok (Age 30) – Seattle General manager Ron Francis was able to get a second-, third-, and seventh-round pick to Calgary in 2022.
Rickard Rakell (Age 28) – Pittsburgh sent a second-round pick, Zach Aston-Reese, and two AHL players to Anaheim in 2022.
Gustav Nyquist (Age 33) – Columbus fetched a fifth-round pick from Minnesota in 2023.
In all of the trades above, salary was retained, which the Kraken have the flexibility to do as well. Eberle’s possible trade range could be as low as a fifth-round pick or as high as multiple picks topping out at a second-rounder.
At the time of his trade, Nyquist was injured, but had been scoring at the same clip as Eberle, which does not bode well. Jarnkrok was scoring above his career average at the time of his trade from Seattle to Calgary and returned a bounty of picks. Eberle does have a 16-team no-trade list as part of the modified no-trade clause (M-NTC) in his contract.
The good news is GM Ron Francis swung a solid return in the Jarnkrok deal, so hopefully he can push for a return matching the Boi Boi Calle trade. Expect a deal to include at least a second-round pick plus additional picks or prospects.
What it would take to re-sign Eberle?
David Perron signed a two-year, $9.5M contract as a UFA just after his 33-year-old season. Perron scores just a hair under Eberle, but matches him in leadership, playing time, and power-play experience. Another player contract we could compare to is the Kraken’s own Tomas Tatar, but we will be talking more about him later.
Eberle is on the back nine of his career. If the Kraken want him back, they would likely be targeting a one- or two-year deal, similar to Perron’s, and we would imagine the Eberle camp pushing for a third or fourth year.
The winger is trending on a ~40-point pace, and if that continues, a pay cut could be in his future. On the other hand, if he returns to form and has a stellar second half of the season, a contract in his current range is likely. It should be noted that scoring is down for the Kraken as a whole, so Eberle’s point totals could be a result of a more defensive game plan.
The former first-round pick does bring power-play abilities and leadership to the group. If he re-signs with the Kraken, which he has said publicly he wants to do, we predict a two- or three-year deal in the $4.5-$5.5M range for Eberle to finish his career with the Kraken.
Justin Schultz (Age 33) – Target: Trade for second-round pick
Schultz joined the Kraken as a free agent, signing a two-year $6M deal with a 10-team M-NTC before the 2022-23 season.
With Ryker Evans knocking on the door, we believe Schultz is the most likely defenseman to not be with the Kraken next year. That takes re-signing him off the table, so we will focus on trade return.
Schultz runs the second power-play unit and has settled into a third defense pairing with his previous Pittsburgh Penguins teammate Brian Dumoulin.
Comparable trades (player name, age when traded):
Ben Chiarot (Age 30) – Florida really wanted Chiarot and paid first- and fourth-round picks, plus an AHL player to Montreal in 2022.
Mark Giordano (Age 38) – The first ever and only Seattle Kraken captain returned two second-round picks plus a third-round pick to Toronto in 2022. It should be noted Colin Blackwell was included in this deal with the Maple Leafs as well.
Brett Kulak (Age 28) – Edmonton traded second- and seventh-round picks, plus NHL player William Lagesson to Montreal in 2022.
Schultz is definitely a valuable depth defenseman with offensive prowess that a team making a playoff run will covet. A second-round pick is probably the highest pick the Kraken can get, but an additional lower-round pick (or two) could be thrown in. Targeting a trade like Kulak’s is conceivable. Looking a bit at Giordano’s trade, which is a package deal, could be something Francis would explore as well.
Tomas Tatar (Age 33) – Target: Trade for second-round pick
Tatar went from making $4.5M last season to signing a team-friendly deal with the Colorado Avalanche, only to get buried on the fourth line and eventually traded to the Kraken for a fifth-round pick.
Now playing on the Kraken’s top line at $1.5M, Tatar has been a steal. The Kraken could look to re-sign Tatar in the $2.5-$3.5M range on a short one-to-two-year contract. The big question is, will Tatar want to stay or go to a team favored to win the Stanley Cup?
Since joining the Kraken, the player affectionately known as “Tuna” has rejuvenated his offense. The comparable trades for Tatar are the same as the trades for Eberle. Tatar has averaged 45-50 points a season over his career and could return almost as much value as Eberle, since he is on a cheaper contract, helpful for teams that are cap constrained. A first-round pick is still out of the question, but a second is definitely feasible.
Being that the Kraken only traded a fifth-round pick to acquire Tatar, trading him could end up being a quick return on investment.
Pierre-Edouard Bellemare (Age 38) – Target: Trade for fourth-round pick
The veteran center signed with the Kraken for one year at the league minimum, $775K. Bellemare offers defense, including penalty-killing time, and above 50 percent in the face-off dot. There are only three players in the NHL that are 39 or over, so he is definitely reaching the end of his career, but Bellemare has played effectively this season.
With his current cap hit, we could see extending Bellemare’s deal for one more year. He is currently on injured reserve but is a depth center with NHL playoff experience when healthy.
We found one comparable trade (player name, age when traded):
Derick Brassard (Age 34) – Edmonton traded a fourth-round pick to Philadelphia in 2022.
A reasonable return could be a third- to fifth-round pick due to Bellemare’s penalty-killing expertise. He is also a possible thrown-in player added to a package deal that could upgrade a trade for the Kraken.
Overall
Trades are hard to predict, and we don’t see the Kraken pulling the trigger as long as they have a path to the playoffs. One aspect of trades we did not dig into much is package deals. Francis has experience with this type of trade, bundling Blackwell with Giordano to get an extra second-round pick in the inaugural season.
For any of the Kraken UFA’s, it would be a stretch to get a first-round pick as part of the return, but packaging up two players could be enough to push a first-round pick into the conversation.
A past package deal that is of interest:
Kyle Palmieri and Travis Zajac – These New Jersey Devils were traded as a package to the New York Islanders for first-, fourth-round picks, and two AHL prospects in 2021.
Please comment on what trades you feel are possible and if the team should re-sign or trade its pending UFAs. Part II can be found here.
Welcome to the halfway mark for the Seattle Kraken’s 2023-24 season. The Kraken have now played 41 games, so we thought it would be a good idea to give an overview of what has transpired so far, what the team is doing well, and what it can improve.
Season overview
Coming off last year’s emotional highs of notching 100 standings points and reaching Game 7 of the second round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs, there were definitely elevated expectations coming into the 2023-24 season. But the Kraken quickly realized success was not going to be handed to them on a silver platter and lost their first four games in October.
Seattle clawed back, going 8-5-4 in their next 17 games to get to .500 and sneak into a the last wild card spot just in time for Thanksgiving.
Historically, most teams in a playoff position on Turkey Day have a higher percentage chance to make the playoffs at season’s end, so that brought the Seattle fanbase some good feelings. Most folks chose to forget that the Kraken had played more games than their opponents at the time, and instead just celebrated the temporary playoff spot.
The boys then apparently ate too many carbs and rattled off an eight-game losing streak. This was the low point of the season, but it was also representative of why I love hockey; things can change so quickly, and just when you think a team is dead in the water, it turns the tide and gets back in the race. The end of that eight-game skid was also the start of the Kraken’s current 12-game point streak (10-0-2), which has since evolved into an eight-game win streak.
Team statistics
Positives for the Kraken
Individual efforts
Vince Dunn
Dunn signed a four-year, $29.4 million extension and is delivering on it in his first season on the new contract. The defenseman leads the team in points with 34 (8-26—34) and is on pace for 68 points, which would be the best season of his career.
At the halfway mark last season, Dunn had 29 points, and the Kraken as a whole had 125 goals. This season, the team’s goal scoring is down at 115 goals, so Dunn has contributed to 30 percent of Seattle’s scoring. That is up seven percent from last year. Dunn scored on 9.4 percent of his shots on goal last year, and that has slightly improved to 10.5 percent this season. His shooting percentage has steadily improved as his ice time has increased.
Eeli Tolvanen
Tolvanen is on pace to break 50 points this year, which would be a career best. The winger leads the team in even-strength goals with 10 and even-strength points at 21. Tolvanen’s line with Yanni Gourde and Oliver Bjorkstrand has been the most consistent forward trio this season and has stayed together for almost the whole campaign. Per leftwinglock.comthey are the most frequently used line combination for the Kraken.
Joey Daccord
Daccord has been lights out since taking over the starting job when Philipp Grubauer got hurt on Dec. 9. The 27-year-old netminder has started 12 of the last 13 games and gone 9-1-2 in that span. For the season, Daccord has two shutouts and a .923 save percentage. His ability to play the puck makes it harder for teams to dump and chase, and he helps the Kraken on the breakout by making the first pass. He has made timely, enormous saves to keep the Kraken in games, including a stunner against the Capitals in Thursday’s 4-1 win.
The Kraken are currently on a franchise-record 12-game point streak. They have also tied the record they set last season around this time with eight consecutive wins and will look to break that record Saturday in Columbus.
During the first half of this season, I did get some vibes of the inaugural season, when the team worked hard but couldn’t score enough and gave up bad goals at bad times. This season the Kraken have identified an issue with scoring and changed their style of play to a more defensive style, and their goalie has simultaneously caught fire. Now, Seattle’s offense is also clicking as key players like Andre Burakovsky and Jaden Schwartz have returned from injury, and the Tomas Tatar trade is showing positive early returns.
Line depth
Questions about replicating the fourth line’s production from last year were definitely prevalent early in the season. Due to injuries and a lack of chemistry, the fourth line has been a rotating group this year. With Tatar being acquired from Colorado on Dec. 16, and Schwartz and Burakovsky back, coach Dave Hakstol can now roll four lines.
With these changes, Jared McCann, Tye Kartye, and Burakovsky now make up the team’s “fourth” line, though the distribution of minutes has been pretty even across the forward groups so far. McCann, in response to a question from Sound Of Hockey‘s own Darren Brown, called it, “Probably the best fourth line in the National Hockey League.”
The Kraken’s success last season was partly attributed to being able to roll four consistent lines that could score, but even when it was at its best, the trio of Daniel Sprong, Morgan Geekie, and Ryan Donato played true fourth-line minutes. The Kraken forward depth is now the deepest it has been in its first three years.
Things to improve
Losing streaks
The eight-game losing streak was definitely the low point of the season. To add salt to the wound of losing eight in a row, three of those losses were against struggling NHL clubs; the Chicago Blackhawks, the Montreal Canadiens and the Ottawa Senators. The Kraken also started the season off with a four-game losing streak, and prior to the current win streak, they had not won more than two games in row.
With the current line depth, defensive-minded style of play, and elite goaltending, losing streaks should be reduced in the second half. There is still plenty of work ahead for the Kraken, though, as outlined in this article on the team’s playoff chances.
Individual performance
Philipp Grubauer
For one reason or another, it has been hard to get both Grubauer and the Kraken skaters to consistently play well with each other. This season has been no different. Grubuaer has a .884 save percentage, which is hard to overcome with Seattle’s scoring rate (2.80 goals per game). We never like to see a player injured, but Grubuaer’s injury has opened the door for Daccord, and he has flourished in the starting role.
While Daccord has dazzled, the team has played better at both ends of the ice in front of him. Curtis Isacke recently wrote, “I found that in virtually every gameplay situation, the Seattle Kraken generate better shot quality offensively and significantly suppress opponent shot quality defensively when Daccord is on the ice.”
Eventually Grubauer will return, so here’s hoping that when he does, the Kraken skaters keep playing this way, and he can build some confidence behind them.
Matty Beniers
Beniers is currently on pace for only 38 points, significantly off the pace of his 57-point Calder Trophy season. He had a 16.2 shooting percentage last year, and that has regressed to 8.3 percent in 2023-24.
The good news is he is shooting just as much as he did last season and is on pace for a similar number of shots, so we can expect his conversion rate to trend up. Returning to 16 percent is a lot to ask, but in the 10-13 percent range is realistic. Over the last 10 games, Beniers has six points, so there are positive signs there, and he and Jordan Eberle seem to be working well with Tatar.
More good news, Beniers is still young and could just be dealing with a sophomore slump. Continuing to play and get experience is the best thing for him, and we have no doubt he can turn it around.
Injury bug
The Kraken got struck by the injury bug during the first half of the season. The following players have missed time: Andre Burakovsky (29 games), Brandon Tanev (16), Jaden Schwartz (16), Philipp Grubauer (13), Pierre-Edouard Bellemare (7), Jordan Eberle (4).
That adds up to 85 games lost to injuries. This is essentially 2 key players lost for each game this season. Both Grubauer and Bellemare are still on injured reserve, but with Daccord holding down the fort in net and McCann/Burakovsky playing on the “fourth” line, the Kraken are set up to continue riding their recent wave of success. Remaining healthy will be key for the second half.
Overall
The Kraken dug themselves a hole in the first half of the season, and their current win streak has almost gotten them out of it. They are still on the playoff bubble, though, currently tied in points with the Nashville Predators for the last wild card spot. The Predators have two more regulation wins than the Kraken, which means they technically have the last playoff position right now.
It should be noted that the Kraken have played in 12 games that went to overtime. Only the New York Islanders have played more overtime games (14), and both the Columbus Blue Jackets and Toronto Maple Leafs are tied with the Kraken at 12.
Seattle has won only three of those OT games and lost nine. Out of a maximum possible 24 points, the Kraken earned 15 points in OT games (nine points for each OT/shootout loss and six points for the three wins). In the NHL standings that works out to a .625 (15/24) points percentage. So keep your head up when the Kraken lose in overtime or a shootout because the Kraken still get a valuable point in those scenarios, and 3-on-3 overtime and shootout results do not matter once you make the playoffs.
The second half looks bright for the Kraken, but one thing is true: they will have to perform better than they did in the first half.
The Seattle Kraken have been on an incredible run since my last Monday musings on Dec. 18. They went 6-0-1 in that span and looked very similar to the 100-point team we saw last season. This group is confident and appears to be having a bit of fun out there. But what has changed?
One significant factor is the defensive mindset and attention to detail. Darren Brown wrote an excellent piece breaking down the changes that transpired over the last month or so. If you haven’t read it yet, go check it out. There is no denying that Joey Daccord has been great in net, but the team has also been very effective at limiting quality shots in front of him.
While the team hasn’t been scoring a ton over the last 10 games, averaging 3.2 goals per game since the point streak started on Dec. 12 (roughly league average over that timeframe), they are allowing just 1.3 goals against, which is the lowest in the NHL.
Depth scoring is back
The team might not be scoring as much as they were last season, but production from up and down the lineup is back. 17 players have scored goals since the Kraken went on their point streak, with Eeli Tolvanen and Kailer Yamamoto having the most goals in that stretch with four each. It seems like every night there is a new group of players scoring for the Kraken, a hallmark of last season’s success.
Scoring first
One thing I have observed lately is the Kraken’s ability to score first and then hold leads, which it struggled with earlier in the campaign. At the beginning of the season, in games where they scored first, the Kraken had a losing record. During the months of October and November, they scored first in 12 games, winning just four of those, equating to a league-worst .333 win percentage when scoring the opening goal.
Fast forward to the point streak, where they have scored first in eight out of the 10 games and have a winning percentage of .875. Not only are they scoring first more frequently, but they are also winning those games at a much higher rate than at the beginning of the season.
A quick note on the Winter Classic
The Winter Classic happened over a week ago, but I continue to think about what an absolute perfect day it was to showcase how much this city has embraced this team in two and a half seasons. I always had conviction for this sport in this city, but this team continues to exceed my expectations off the ice. It has been an extraordinary journey, and hats off to all the people that have worked for this team, directly and indirectly, leading to the Winter Classic being such a special day.
Other musings
There have been 27 teams that had exactly 41 points at the 39-game mark since the 2005-06 season. Of those teams, 11 qualified for the Stanley Cup Playoffs. That’s about a 41-percent chance. If you had told me last month that the Kraken would have a 41-percent chance of making the playoffs, I would have thought you were crazy.
Now that Andre Burakovsky is back, it seems coach Dave Hakstol is still not settled on where he fits into the lineup. Burakovsky has mostly played on the fourth line with Kailer Yamamoto and Tye Kartye since his return, but he has also spent time with Alex Wennberg and Brandon Tanev.
The lines will get even more mixed up once Jaden Schwartz comes back, which we think could happen Tuesday. He is traveling with the team on this road trip, implying his return is imminent.
It’s hard to even say from the below which is the “fourth line,” but we believe the line with Jared McCann and Burakovsky was listed at the bottom of the line chart for Seattle at practice on Saturday. If this lineup sticks for Tuesday’s game at Buffalo, that’s a heckuva fourth line. It will be interesting to see how Hakstol deploys a very deep forward corps.
I have really enjoyed watching Tomas Tatar on the Kraken. I have no idea why it wasn’t working in Colorado, but he clearly still has a lot of skill. He scored his third goal with the Kraken last Friday against Ottawa in his eighth game. He only had one goal in 27 games with Colorado this season.
THAT'S SOME SPICY TUNA! 🚨
Dunn hits Eberle at the blue line, who makes a one-touch pass to spring Tomas Tatar for his third goal as a #SeaKraken.
I’m looking forward to Chris Driedger getting a start or two on this road trip. It was great to see him win and perform well in his first start since 2022 when he beat the Calgary Flames on Dec. 27. Being that he is in the last year of his current contract, I would like to see him showcase his talent for potential landing spots next season.
In case you did not know, Driedger will require waivers if the Kraken send him down to Coachella Valley when Philipp Grubauer returns from injury.
There are seven teams that could knock the Kraken out of a Western Conference wild card spot at the end of the season. Edmonton and Minnesota are the two teams I am most concerned about at this point. It is too early for it, but I am already scoreboard watching. I loved seeing Chicago beat Calgary in regulation on Sunday, thanks to former Kraken Colin Blackwell scoring two goals.
With so many Kraken prospects in the tournament, I enjoyed the IIHF World Junior Championship even more than normal this year. It was fun to watch all of them, but Jani Nyman and Carson Rehkopf were the standouts for me. I imagine Nyman could be playing in North America next year, and Rehkopf likely has one more year in the OHL.
Speaking of Rehkopf, he didn’t waste much time getting back into the swing of things in Kitchener.
Joey Daccord (SEA) – Joey is 5-0-1 since Dec. 18 and has the highest save percentage in the league over that stretch. The team in front of him has played better defensively, but Joey has been coming up huge.
Ales Stezka (CVF/SEA) – Stezka notched his first AHL shutout on Saturday night against the Abbotsford Canucks. He has a .980 save percentage over his last two games.
Eduard Sale (CZE/SEA) – The Kraken’s first-round selection from the 2023 NHL Draft had seven points in seven games during the World Junior Championship. He still has one more year of eligibility to play in the WJC, so it will be interesting to see if he returns next season.
Chart of the week
As mentioned above, a key factor contributing to turning this season around is the emphasis on defense and limiting goals against. The chart illustrates the reduction in goals allowed by the Kraken this season and compares it to other teams.
Nyman had numerous highlights in the WJC, and one of the standout moments was his shootout goal that secured the victory for Finland over Sweden.
The week ahead
The Kraken embark on a six-game road trip, with the initial three matchups appearing relatively favorable. Seattle faces Buffalo on Tuesday, Washington on Thursday, and Columbus on Saturday. The team should aim to secure at least four points in those three. Key areas to watch include Burakovsky’s deployment in the lineup, Schwartz’s return, and the performance of the power play.
While there is currently no significant concern about the power play, the team has only scored one goal in eight opportunities over the last four games. The Kraken haven’t appeared particularly threatening with the man advantage lately, and it would be beneficial to see an improvement before it becomes an issue.
Feel free to leave any questions, feedback, or areas of exploration in the comment section. I appreciate your support.
