Is there a more beautiful word in the hockey labor vernacular than “ratification?” Hearing it, reading it, and seeing it, as it pertains to the approval of a new collective bargaining agreement between the NHL and the NHLPA, is enough to send tingles down the spine of pretty much any hockey fan who remembers recent lost seasons due to unnecessary and maddening labor strife. Thankfully, the Players’ Association did agree to the new deal, which extends the working relationship between the two sides, meaning we don’t have to worry about a work stoppage for six more seasons.
This is great for Seattle fans in particular, who certainly didn’t want to have a lockout—arguably the stupidest thing in the world aside from COVID—hanging over their heads during their new team’s inaugural season.
Speaking of COVID, what’s especially important in the near-term about this CBA ratification (again, beautiful word), is that it also meant that the players had agreed to the NHL’s proposed return-to-play plan. Lest you forget, the season was suspended on March 12th, when the world was visibly collapsing around itself. There are plenty of arguments to be made as to whether that collapse has slowed down enough to warrant playing hockey again, but regardless of your opinions on if it should happen, this new deal means that—unless something really bad happens in the next few weeks—a return absolutely is happening.
So, with that in mind, we at NHLtoSeattle.com thought it was time to start talking hockey again. And we don’t mean talking about coronavirus, CBA’s, Phase 4 Secure Zones, or any of that boring dribble that we’ve been forced to chat about over the past four (!) months. We mean actual brass tacks hockey, which despite having no fans in the stands and teams being forced to live in hotels sequestered from their families, should be a welcome addition to the lives of quarantined hockey fans everywhere.
We thought the best way to get the conversation focused back on games themselves was to start talking about the games themselves. So, over the next couple of weeks leading up to the resumption of the season, currently slated for August 1st, we will have full previews of all eight of the qualifying round best-of-five series. The aim is to bring you back up to speed with what was happening with each team and what kind of seasons they were having respectively, so that as the squads take the ice, you too will be in playoff form. Get excited.
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Western Conference
#5 Edmonton Oilers versus #12 Chicago Blackhawks
Rogers Place, Edmonton, Alberta
We start our series of previews in the West, at the beautiful hub city of Edmonton, Alberta, which was lauded in this fantastic video this past week.
One very intriguing aspect of this qualifying format is that after the shocking events of the recent NHL Draft Lottery, it was determined that one of the eight losing teams in this play-in round will receive the top overall pick in the NHL Draft. Being entered into that eight-team pool will be a fine consolation prize for all of the losers of this first collection of games. Among the sixteen teams that have a chance to win the lottery, three teams stand out as clubs that would be particularly infuriating to see, should their logo be on the card when Bill Daly flips it over at Draft Lottery 2.0. In the East, Pittsburgh would be quite maddening, thanks to the dominance that they’ve shown ever since drafting Sidney Crosby first overall in 2005. In the West, it is easy to imagine the hockey world completely imploding, should either of these teams—Chicago or Edmonton—be the ultimate lottery victor.
But we aren’t talking about that or worrying about that because it totally isn’t going to happen. The games… we’re talking about the games here.
EDMONTON OILERS
The Oilers put together a pretty solid campaign under friend of the pod and former Seattle advisor, Dave Tippett, who turned in a 71-game record of 37-25-9 in his first season behind the Edmonton bench. The associated 83 standings points were good enough for second place in the Pacific Division, but not enough to overtake Dallas for the last spot in the unnecessary round robin tournament of automatic advancers.
The dynamic duo of Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl lead the way in Edmonton.
Leading the way—very unsurprisingly—for the boys in the heinous orange jerseys will be Connor McJesus McDavid and Leon “the Deutschland Dangler” Draisaitl, the best one-two punch in all of hockey. When the season was suspended, Draisaitl was first in the NHL in points (110) and assists (67), while McDavid was second in both of those categories with 97 (he loves that number) and 63.
Beyond McDavid and Draisaitl, the Oilers get some secondary scoring from Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and James Neal, who we recall had a ridiculous start to the year with seven goals in the team’s first four games but went quiet after the calendar turned over to 2020. After the Nooge and the Real Deal, though, things drop off pretty dramatically.
In net, Edmonton has an interesting platoon of Mikko Koskinen and Mike Smith. Neither has been especially great this season, but I do generally appreciate teams heading into playoffs that have split time between netminders, because it gives the coach the ability to go with the hotter hand.
There is an interesting local perspective to keep an eye on here too, as former Seattle Thunderbird Ethan Bear skated himself into top-four minutes with exceptional playmaking on the blueline, and Spokane’s Kailer Yamamoto was on the second forward line with Draisaitl and Nugent-Hopkins when the season was suspended.
CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS
[Does double-take, spits out coffee] “The Chicago Blackhawks made the playoffs?!”
Well, not exactly… yet… but they are certainly one of the biggest beneficiaries of the expanded field that was created by the league. The 24-team tournament was set up to allow for teams on the bubble who still had a mathematical chance to sneak into the playoffs, had the season been played out in its entirety. It’s hard to imagine Chicago to even be a bubble team, though, so its inclusion was a bit surprising.
Young Jeremy Colliton, who took over from the ousted Joel Quenneville in November of 2018, has never really seemed to fully get his group playing the brand of hockey from Blackhawks squads of yore, but that may not be his fault. After all, Quenneville is one of the best coaches of all time, and if he wasn’t able to get the team back up to GM Stan Bowman’s snuff, it’s hard to say that a first-timer like Colliton has ever really been dealt a great hand.
There is some good youth in the Windy City, and Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane remain impactful stars in the league, but the holes on this roster are quite evident. “Showtime” Kane shines brightest in all categories, with 33 goals and 51 assists for 84 points on the year, while 24-year-old Dominik Kubalik was very impressive with a 30-goal rookie season. Meanwhile, fellow youngsters Alex DeBrincat and Dylan Strome add some more youthful exuberance, while veterans like Brandon Saad (21 goals) and Duncan Keith (27 points) still contribute.
The health of Corey Crawford is always a question, and apparently that’s no different this time around. The oft-concussed netminder started 39 games and was present and
Corey Crawford was ruled “unfit to play” in Phase 3 of the NHL’s Return to Play
playing quite well when the season paused. In all, he turned in a 2.77 GAA and .917 save percentage, but just a 16-20-3 record on the year. News broke over the weekend that Crawford has been mysteriously ruled unfit to play, at least initially. With Robin Lehner traded away to Vegas at the deadline, that leaves Colin Delia, Malcolm Subban, something called Kevin Lankinen, and something else called Matt Tomkins to compete for the goalcrease, assuming Crawford can’t return.
PREDICTION
What’s interesting is that these two teams have similar make-ups in a lot of ways; two superstars up front, a few veterans sprinkled through, some impressive young players, and question marks in net. The franchises are just in very different stages of their lifecycles, though, with Edmonton seemingly ready to reach its apex, and Chicago feeling very much past its prime.
As was stated previously, anything can happen in a five-game series, but with a Crawford steal appearing to be off the table, the smart money is definitely on McDavid and Draisaitl here.
The NHL was back on the ice this week as twenty-four teams opened training camps in preparation for the qualifying rounds of the Return to Play Plan set to kick off at the beginning of August. The seven teams that didn’t make the postseason are home, preparing for October’s NHL Draft with hopes of improving their rosters.
But what about the league’s 32nd team?
How does the new CBA that was ratified as part of Return to Play affect Seattle? How does the pause and the expanded postseason impact Ron Francis and his hockey operations staff?
For now, they’re on the sidelines preparing as best they can without a clear picture of where the league will be next year.
“Technically we’re not in the NHL until we make our final payments,” Francis said from his home last week. “I don’t get to go to the GM meetings and we’re not on the GM calls or those kinds of things at this point. A lot of our information comes secondhand or by reading media reports. I think we’re probably like a lot of people, for a long time it’s been clear as mud and I think everybody at this point is speculating on where we go from here and what may happen moving forward.
“We‘re looking at all the different scenarios that may take place and what direction we may go in.”
Seattle did not have a say in how the league moved forward but the new collective bargaining agreement should have a positive impact as the club looks forward towards next year’s expansion draft.
For starters, the agreement between the league and the player’s association means that Seattle will not have to worry about a lockout the summer following its inaugural season. The biggest benefit to Seattle however, is the flat salary cap.
Prior to the NHL going on pause in March due to COVID-19 the salary cap was expected to go up from $81.5 million to somewhere in the $84 and $88 million range. The cap is calculated based on rising revenues the league brings in. With the stoppage in play, those revenues went stagnant, and in turn so has the salary cap.
Instead of $88 million the cap for 2020-2021 will stay at $81.5 million and will not go up until the league reaches revenues of $4.8 billion. For the next two seasons, a significant rise in the salary is not expected.
This is going to put some teams in cap trouble and force them to make tough choices as they try to manage their rosters, sign free agents — both their own and others around the league. Some are facing cap issues and at the end of this season, 18 teams have spent to within 98-percent of the upper limit of the cap.
“It’s certainly a possibility,” Francis said. “Some people are saying it could be a benefit for us but there’s still a long runway from where are today to until we get there. It will be interesting to see as we move down the road, where teams are at.”
As Vegas did, Seattle will be in position to leverage cap problems with teams during the expansion draft. Most clubs will leave high salaried, and perhaps under performing, players exposed. While Seattle may not want those players long term, there will be opportunities to make deals.
Francis can offer to take that player in exchange for a younger, better player coming via a trade. For an example of this, see the Vegas expansion draft selection of Clayton Stoner and his $3.5 million salary from the Anaheim Ducks. In return, the Ducks sent former Seattle Thunderbirds defenseman Shea Theodore – who was not exposed in the draft — to Vegas.
The consensus among NHL media is that the league’s general managers have learned from the Vegas experience and won’t make these same kind of deals this time around.
“I think there’s a lot of differences in what we’re going through with what Vegas went through,” Francis said. “Vegas certainly didn’t have as long of a runway as we have but the other teams didn’t have the longer runway like they will now. Guys have gone through it. They didn’t have a team sitting on the sidelines, we have Vegas sit on sidelines. There’s a lot of differences in the ways this could go, and my staff will look at all the ways we can put together the best team for us in Seattle.”
One of those differences is the flat cap that Seattle will be able to exploit to its benefit.
While GM’s around the NHL will look to protect themselves from losing quality players and avoid helping Seattle the way they did with Vegas, the temptation of clearing cap space may be enough to lure them into a deal. Whether it be in exchange for a young player, a prospect, or draft capital, Seattle has leverage.
Expansion Draft Eligibility
The NHL will allow Seattle to select players in the expansion draft under the same criteria that Vegas used in 2017. The Golden Knights will not have to take part in the expansion draft and will not be sharing in the expansion fees that Seattle pays the league.
Among the players that teams expose they must include a minimum of two forwards and one defenseman who is under contract for 2021-2022 and played in 40 or more NHL games last season or played in 70 or more games over the past two seasons.
Those games played requirements are based on an 82-game season, which we did not get this year. Will the NHL make a change?
“We’ve had no discussions,” Francis said about possible changes. “Quite honestly, the league has had their hands full in trying to get the CBA done and phase 2 and phase 3 and once they’ve got that all in place, then they’ll revisit with us. I don’t expect anything to drastically change. I think you will have to look at the games required since you didn’t finish the season. Who knows how next year will go, in a perfect world we get to start and play 82 games and if not, does that change and does that affect the games played rules? I don’t know. That’s something we’ll have to address with the league.”
We’ve already seen a team like the Calgary Flames make decisions about playing time for young rookies to keep them from having to be protected in the expansion draft.
With everything still fluid, it makes it tougher for Francis and his scouts to plan for the expansion draft. In January, he gathered his pro scouts, and they went through mock drafts, looking at different scenarios.
Moving forward there may be more mock exercises but Francis says that until the league gets into the 2020-2021 season they won’t have a clear picture of who might be available to draft.
“I think we’re doing a lot of things,” he said. “We’re trying to make decisions that are best for the organization and for our owners and the fans of Seattle moving forward. I think Brian Burke was quoted as saying this isn’t a lunar landscape because men have walked on the Moon, it’s more like a Mars landscape because nobody’s been here before. As challenging as it is to start an expansion team normally and when you throw a pandemic on top of it, it becomes more challenging but we’re going to do the best we can to be prepared.”
Hockey is *almost* back, as news has broken this week that a new collective bargaining agreement and return to play plan could be ratified in the coming days. Lots of… uh… exciting stuff to break down here, and John, Andy, and Darren do their best to accomplish this.
The guys also take a look at an article from The Athletic this week that utilizes the local knowledge of its writers to put together a mock expansion team on Seattle’s behalf. This leads to a new gameshow from John, in which nobody wins.
Also, at a listener’s request, John, Andy, and Darren share a few of their favorite games to go back and watch in preparation for the NHL potentially returning on August 1st.
Segments this week include Goalie Gear Corner, Weekly One-Timers, and Tweets of the Week.
Hockey is *almost* back, as news has broken this week that a new collective bargaining agreement and return to play plan could be ratified in the coming days. Lots of… uh… exciting stuff to break down here, and John, Andy, and Darren do their best to accomplish this.
The guys also take a look at an article from The Athletic this week that utilizes the local knowledge of its writers to put together a mock expansion team on Seattle’s behalf. This leads to a new gameshow from John, in which nobody wins.
Also, at a listener’s request, John, Andy, and Darren share a few of their favorite games to go back and watch in preparation for the NHL potentially returning on August 1st.
Segments this week include Goalie Gear Corner, Weekly One-Timers, and Tweets of the Week.
The groundbreaking celebration was set for February 18th in the California desert. Free tickets had been distributed and presumably ceremonial shovels were acquired for various photo ops as the excitement for a new hockey arena in Palm Springs was building.
Five days prior to the event, it was cancelled.
The arena in question is a joint operation between Oak View Group and the Agua Caliente Band of Cahuilla Indians, costing $250 million to result in a 10,000 seat facility to house NHL Seattle’s American Hockey League affiliate. Construction was set to start in February and the arena was to be finished in time for the beginning of the 2021-2022 AHL Season.
The reason given for the delay of the breaking ground event was “extenuating circumstances” and an apology for any inconvenience was offered by tribal officials. The delay hardly seemed like anything to worry about at the time. Arena deals are complicated and surely there were details to iron out between the tribe and Oak View Group.
Now, five months later, the arena is in limbo and the clock is ticking.
“Once we get past (the virus) we’ll make a decision if we’re gonna proceed,” Leiweke he told the Sun without any specifics on when they would reevaluate.
The ‘if’ in Leiweke’s statement lands heavy.
This was the first time that anyone hinted at the prospect of the arena not moving forward. As detailed in the Sun article, there have been issues surrounding a parking plan and other safety concerns to be settled. Nobody has gone on record to say that these issues are deal-breakers, however.
Could the arena deal in Palm Springs end up being delayed? What kind of repercussions would that have on NHL Seattle’s plan for an AHL affiliate?
When asked for clarification, OVG’s Senior Vice President of Entertainment overseeing the Palm Springs Arena, John Bolton, couldn’t offer much more detail.
“Given the current unprecedented times, discussions around arena construction timelines continue and we will provide updates when available as we work closely with the City of Palm Springs and Agua Caliente Band of Cahuilla Indians,” Bolton said.
That statement feels more positive as the groups are still talking about timelines, giving the appearance that the deal is ultimately going to happen. The question of when, remains.
The AHL approved NHL Seattle’s bid for expansion to Palm Springs in September of 2019 and the new team was set to join the league for the 2021-2022 season, the same season that the NHL club would begin play.
Assuming that OVG and the Agua Caliente tribe can work out the kinks of the arena deal and begin construction, the timeline to begin play in the desert by next season appears to be in jeopardy. How fast can they build a 300,000 square foot facility?
If Palm Springs is delayed, or if the arena deal falls apart completely, where will, or can, NHL Seattle turn to for its AHL players in 2021?
Playing without a taxi squad is out of the question as NHL Seattle will need minor league players. Even in year one, there will be injuries, there will be call ups and getting players into the system and developing is key to long term successes.
NHL Seattle will need to have a plan if Palm Springs is delayed.
It’s unlikely that the team would find a temporary city to house an AHL squad as the logistics involved would be extensive and not worth the effort for one year.
Having an AHL team play out of Climate Pledge Arena is one option. The San Jose Sharks share the SAP Center and a practice facility with their affiliate, the Barracuda, so it wouldn’t be unprecedented. The Sharks are building a new, smaller building for the Barracuda, however.
Sharing an arena would present some travel issues as the AHL relies mostly on bus travel and Seattle would be isolated from the rest of the AHL’s Pacific Division which sees five of its seven clubs in California. Could those travel concerns be palatable for one season? Maybe.
The most likely recourse would be to split the affiliation with an existing AHL team.
For their inaugural season, the Vegas Golden Knights shared the Chicago Wolves with the St. Louis Blues. Vegas had 13 players who spent the majority of the 2017-2018 season in Chicago. Three of those players they had acquired through the NHL expansion draft, two were picked up via a trade, while eight were signed as free agents.
The Blues moved their affiliate the next season and the Knights have since purchased the San Antonio Rampage and relocated them to Henderson, Nevada, re-branding them as the Henderson Silver Knights.
Which team to join would also be a question. Currently, just 12 of the AHL’s 31 clubs are independently owned, with the rest owned by the NHL parent club. Seattle would have to work with one of the independents to split the roster.
If Seattle were to split a team for a year it would mean they would have fewer players in the AHL pipeline. Rather than a full roster of players, it would be half. Depending on what team they split with and who the other prospects are, playing time could be affected and as such, player development. It’s not a great long-term option but could bridge the year if needed.
The optimist says that the arena deal can get finalized and under construction shortly with enough time to be opened for the next AHL season. One thing working in Seattle’s favor is the uncertainty of when hockey seasons will start up again. If the AHL pushes back the start of this coming season, and therefore next season, Palm Springs could end up with more time to get the arena built.
But, in the meantime, NHL Seattle will need a contingency plan in case there is no arena for an AHL team to play in, come 2021.
On this week’s Sound of Hockey, the guys give their reactions to the news that NHL Seattle’s future home will be called Climate Pledge Arena, which gets their wheels turning about which NHL/NBA arenas have the worst corporate names.
Also on this episode, John, Andy, and Darren recap the chaotic NHL Draft Lottery that happened this past week.
