One thing we already know about the Seattle Kraken is that they know how to keep a secret. A year ago, they announced the team’s name, logo, and jersey design with nary a leak. No stolen mockups made the rounds, and we all experienced the name together.
A week ago, they struck again by hiring Dave Hakstol as the first Kraken head coach. Hakstol’s name was not mentioned by all the self-proclaimed media insiders leading up to the official announcement.
Yet there he was at the Edgewater Inn, sitting between general manager Ron Francis and CEO Tod Leiweke last Thursday.
“We didn’t do anything extraordinary,” Francis said about keeping the hire a secret. “Dave was employed by Toronto, so we didn’t want that being out there and a distraction, as he’s coaching with the Leafs so we just had the conversations, we talked about things and, you know, I think a lot of that credit goes to Dave. He just didn’t talk about it to anybody and when you don’t do that it doesn’t get out there.”
Seems simple enough.
So, what kind of coach are the Kraken getting in Hakstol? What kind of team will he put on the ice?
“If you go through an 82-game schedule and hopefully into a playoff run, resiliency is a huge part of what our team will be about,” Hakstol said. “It’s not always easy. The teams that relish those tough days and want to come back and battle together. Those are the teams that have success. I’ve always said humility as part of the group, humility to hold standards really allows you to respect this game and the game deserves respect … those are some of the different elements that lead us to the opportunity that we have here in terms of building tradition.”
The Seattle Kraken introduced new head coach Dave Hakstol last week (photo Brian Liesse)
Dave Hakstol and numbers
The Kraken have built a robust and highly credentialed analytics staff as part of their hockey operations. Led by Alex Mandrycky, it’s obvious that Seattle will use analytics as a tool towards building, and sustaining, a successful on-ice product.
It seems to reason that hiring a coach willing to embrace and work with analytics would be of importance.
“You know when I was actually being interviewed for my position that was something we came up with,” Francis said. “The ownership group is interested in that and thought that we should make that a part of our processes as we build out our team. So, certainly when we were asking the questions on the coaches, there were questions surrounding analytics and we did that with everybody. It wasn’t the only question, but it was certainly part of the process to make our final decision for sure.”
Not all coaches have embraced analytics in today’s NHL.
It seems counter intuitive not to. Embracing analytics doesn’t mean you turn into a robot, relying on charts to set your line combinations, or make adjustments to your game plan. The data, however, informs the decisions that the coach eventually has to make.
There’s nothing wrong with making tough calls armed with as much information as possible.
“It’s a phenomenal tool for us as coaches to evaluate and to discover and to find different avenues to improve our team,” Hakstol said. “The second piece of that is still a very human game 100% on the ice, it’s played with emotion and passion… So, the combination of the two is valuable. Never forget, this is a game that’s played on emotion and it’s a human game.”
Hakstol’s time in Philadelphia was a mixed bag
Hakstol was just the third coach to go straight from coaching in college to the NHL when he accepted the head coaching gig with the Philadelphia Flyers in 2015. It came after an impressive 11-year run in college with the University of North Dakota.
He spent three full seasons with the Flyers — he was let go 31 games into his fourth year after a 12-15-4 start — and led them to the playoffs twice.
The numbers for those Flyers teams are what you would expect for a middling team that made it into the postseason but lost in the first round. Their underlying metrics were all around 50 percent, including an expected goals forced percentage of 51. His goaltending was perhaps a bit under par with a collection of guys that included Steve Mason, Brian Elliott, and a group of seven additional journeymen who manned the pipes during his last season.
Over the three full years he was a coach, the Flyers’ goalies combined for a high-danger save percentage of 79 percent, which was 30th in the league for that time. Hakstol needed a guy to make a save for him.
None of that is to suggest that Hakstol was responsible for the Flyers inability to find a consistent goaltender. That’s long been a hitch in the Flyers’ stride and was so until Carter Hart arrived at the end of Hakstol’s tenure in 2018-2019.
It’s also tough to glean too much information from the stats of those Flyers teams when assessing Hakstol. Even the best coaches require talented players and the Flyers’ struggles this past season, where they failed to make the playoffs with a minus-38 goal differential, suggest that the team’s problems were deeper than coaching.
Hakstol has a chance now to take the lessons learned from that experience, plus two years as an assistant with a good Toronto team, and apply them to the Kraken, something he talked about last week.
There have been many cases of “second chance” coaches who didn’t win big in their first go-around but would get a second shot and end up succeeding. See Gerard Gallant, who had only a first-round loss in four years between Columbus and Florida before taking Vegas to the Cup Final in 2018.
Or check out Pete DeBoer, who has taken two teams, New Jersey and San Jose, to the Stanley Cup Final and three of the last four conference finals. Before all that he spent three seasons as the Florida Panthers head coach (2008-2011) and missed the playoffs each time.
Hakstol’s track record shows that he knows the game and knows how to win. That’s what led him to be the first Kraken head coach.
Coach Hakstol on team leadership with Kraken
During last Thursday’s press conference, Hakstol talked about the task ahead.
He has to put together a coaching staff and prepare to take a collection of payers thrown together after the Expansion Draft on July 21.
Part of that is finding leadership. There won’t be an established leader when the team first is assembled. The Vegas Golden Knights had the same challenge and famously didn’t have a captain until turning to Mark Stone this past season. Leadership is an important part of a hockey team and with the constant turnover of a college roster, it’s something Hakstol has some experience with.
“There may be that one guy that’s just absolute,” he said. “If that’s the case that usually becomes pretty apparent. With any group that I’ve coached I look at the core group. Our core leadership group. What the number of that group is, I don’t know what that number will be, maybe it’s four, five, maybe six, but its more so than just solely focusing on who the captain will be. It’s focusing on that leadership group.”
Don’t be surprised if there is no official Kraken captain in year one.
This felt like the last big pre-we’re-a-real-team milestone, didn’t it? Kraken general manager Ron Francis has been maintaining for MANY months that the organization’s hiring plan for its first head coach was to wait for the end of the NHL season to see what options were available. The second piece of the plan was to have the coach in place by the end of the second quarter of 2021. With just six days to spare before that self-imposed deadline, the team finally did the damn thing and hired Dave Hakstol as the first coach in Seattle Kraken franchise history, just as absolutely nobody anticipated.
Dave Hakstol hired as Seattle Kraken Head Coach
Why Dave Hakstol was never really considered a candidate to be the first Seattle Kraken Head Coach is anybody’s guess, but the best way we can explain it is… well… nobody ever really asked if Dave Hakstol was a candidate. He certainly ticks the boxes of being somebody with NHL head coaching experience and also somebody who believes that analytics are a useful tool for teams to evaluate and improve. He also—despite being fired by the Flyers after four seasons—had a winning record in Philadelphia and took a relatively young team to the playoffs twice.
And being that he just wrapped up a two-year stint as an assistant coach in hockey-crazed Toronto, how did Hakstol and the Kraken manage to keep his name out of the rumor mill all the way until Thursday morning?
“Actually, we didn’t do anything—I would think—extraordinary,” Francis said during Hakstol’s introductory presser on Thursday. “We first talked to Dave last year. I mean, it’s an interesting process because sometimes you talk to teams, and they request that you keep it quiet. At the time, Dave was employed by Toronto so you certainly don’t want that out there as a distraction as he’s coaching with the Leafs.”
Francis added, “So you know on our end, we just had the conversations, we talked about things, and I think a lot of that credit goes to Dave. He just didn’t talk about it to anybody and when you don’t do that, it doesn’t get out there. So, as I said, we had multiple conversations, and it was able to be kept sort of in house until this morning.”
As far as introductory press conferences go, it really was a good one. Hakstol carries himself as somebody who perfectly fits the mold of what the Kraken were seeking. He looks and sounds like a coach who has been here before, and he’s excited for—but also humbled by—the opportunity to lead an expansion franchise as its first-ever bench boss.
Dave Hakstol speaks at his introductory press conference. Photo: Brian Liesse.
We at Sound Of Hockey were certainly surprised by the hire, but we dig it. Let us know what you think about Dave Hakstol as the first Seattle Kraken head coach!
Stanley Cup Final matchup set
Sure, everybody had the Tampa Bay Lightning and their “$18-million-over-the-cap” payroll in the Stanley Cup Final. But there cannot have been too many brackets out there that featured the Montreal Canadiens as one of the two last teams standing.
It’s hard to even explain how the Habs have gotten to this point. They still are not and never have been the best team in this tournament, but they’ve played the style of hockey that gets it done in the playoffs and have done so to near perfection. Outstanding team defense. Clutch scoring. Elite goaltending. That’s the formula.
Meanwhile, the Bolts return for a chance at a second-consecutive swig from Lord Stanley’s Cup.
It’s funny how the tides of public perception turn so quickly when your team wins. It felt like everyone was pulling for Tampa Bay in last year’s bubble, and now they feel like this evil empire, just toying with the hearts and minds of hockey fans everywhere.
Following suit in the semifinals, America really appeared to be cheering for the Islanders, who were impressive again this season. Barry Trotz’s troops gave everything they had to try to find an equalizer in Friday’s Game 7. But remarkably, potential future Seattle Kraken Yanni Gourde’s short-handed tally early in the second period was enough to skate Tampa Bay back into the Final.
Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Final gets underway Monday at 5 P.M. on NBC Sports, not the main network. Based on their schedule, it would appear that local news, Wheel of Fortune, Jeopardy!, and American Ninja Warrior take precedent over the Stanley Cup Final. NBC has officially mailed it in. We are very ready for the NHL’s new TV partners to take over.
Man, I sure hated these guys in my formative years as a Minnesota Wild fan, but now that I live so close to Vancouver and have had a glimpse at how much they mean to that city, I get it. It really does make a lot of sense for Henrik and Daniel Sedin to be employed by the team with which they became so synonymous over their playing careers.
The Sedins have been hired as special advisers to the general manager, which gives a real “Assistant TO the Regional Manager” vibe. Hopefully for Vancouver fans, the twins can kickstart the team’s seven-year plan, which is now entering its eighth year.
Twitter had a couple funnies about the simultaneous hirings that we thought were worth sharing.
As the NHL Stanley Cup Semifinals reached their respective boiling points this week, Celine Dion may have pushed the city of Montreal over the edge, had the Habs not ultimately won the series.
The Quebec native and French Canada’s favorite daughter appeared in a pre-game hype video on the Jumbotron (do we still call them Jumbotrons?) at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas sporting heavy makeup, a Vegas hockey helmet, and [gasp!] a Golden Knights jersey.
How could you, Celine?
There are some conspiracy theories out there that the photo was doctored, but we will continue to investigate this very important topic.
Anyway, the Canadiens won the game and eventually the series, so Habs fans’ hearts will go on.
Around the boards
The local WHL squads released their full schedules this week for the 2021-22 season. Both the Everett Silvertips and Seattle Thunderbirds will play their home openers against the Portland Winterhawks on Oct. 8 and 9 respectively. The Silvertips Preseason Classic, which did not take place in 2020-21 will return this season, starting on Sept. 10.
Congratulations to our good friend, Ryan Hardy, who was hired by the Toronto Maple Leafs to join their front office in a role to be determined. Hardy built the Chicago Steel of the USHL into an absolute powerhouse organization and is a hilarious and generally awesome dude. Well deserved.
Darren Brown is the Chief Content Officer at Sound Of Hockey and the host, producer, and editor of the Sound Of Hockey Podcast. He is an inconsistent beer league goalie who believes that five players have to make a mistake before the puck gets to him. Follow him on Twitter @DarrenFunBrown or email darren@soundofhockey.com.
SEATTLE – After keeping the name under wraps amidst a tempest of rumor and speculation, the Seattle Kraken announced Thursday morning that Dave Hakstol would become the first head coach of the expansion franchise.
Hakstol, 52, spent the last two seasons as an assistant with the Toronto Maple Leafs after four-plus seasons as the head coach of the Philadelphia Flyers. Once in town, he and his family were introduced to the Seattle media at a press conference held at the Edgewater Hotel.
“It’s been a little bit of a whirlwind, but what a great whirlwind,” Hakstol said.
The Kraken did an outstanding job keeping Hakstol’s name a secret. Over the past few months, names like Rick Tocchet, Joel Quenneville, Gerard Gallant, Kevin Dineen, Tony Granato, and Joe Sacco had emerged as potential candidates to take the job. Nobody mentioned Hakstol’s name until Thursday morning.
It’s surprising because Seattle general manager Ron Francis says that the team’s first discussions with the new coach began last summer. The seed may have been planted long before, however.
“In 2019 with Hockey Canada, I was part of the management team and Dave was part of the coaching staff,” Francis said. “We got to spend four weeks together over in Austria. I got to know him as a person and kind of watch his work ethic and how he operated… as we went through the process, he was certainly a guy that I had an interest in talking to.
“He’s been in the league for six years, he’s worked with some different coaches in getting a lot more experience. I like the way he communicates his message and I know he cares about his players. So all those things made it the right choice for me as a coach.”
Hakstol’s coaching career began in the USHL when he took over mid-season for the struggling Sioux City Musketeers in 1996. The team only won eight games that first year, but Hakstol would quickly turn the franchise around, and over the next three campaigns he had a 96-53-11 record.
He would leave the USHL to become an assistant coach for his alma mater, the University of North Dakota, in 2000. He spent the next three seasons as an associate coach before being named head coach in 2004. For the next 11 years, Hakstol guided North Dakota to winning records, topping a .600 winning percentage every season, while reaching the Frozen Four seven times.
That led to Hakstol being hired in 2015 by the Philadelphia Flyers, making the jump from college to the NHL. In Philadelphia, Hakstol brought the Flyers to the playoffs twice – in 2016 and 2018 – before being let go early into the 2018-2019 season. He compiled a 134-101-42 overall record with the Flyers.
“I think there’s a lot of guys who have gotten that second chance and really take advantage of it,” Francis said.
New Seattle Kraken head coach Dave Hakstol answers questions Thursday. (Brian Liesse photo)
Hakstol’s second chance comes after two seasons of looking at the coaching position from a different angle.
After spending time as an assistant in college, he again lived the assistant life for two NHL seasons under Mike Babcock and Sheldon Keefe in Toronto. That experience will be added to his prior time as a head coach as he takes over in Seattle.
“It definitely brings a different perspective,” Hakstol said of his Toronto experience. “You know, it’s a different routine and rhythm within your daily organization, no question about that, but it’s also a little different perspective with the players. I had an opportunity to work with two outstanding coaches with both Mike and Sheldon in Toronto as well as the other assistant coaches that were there. The people surrounding you, you take a piece from.”
With the July 21 Expansion Draft a month away, he plans on hitting the ground running. Hakstol will put together a coaching staff and begin to prepare for players coming on board. There will not be a lot of time, as after the Expansion Draft the team will have just a couple of short months before training camp opens in September.
What is Hakstol going to do now that he’s officially the first coach of the Kraken?
“Don’t waste a day,” he said. “There’s a ton of work to do and we don’t have any time to waste there. It’s not waiting until training camp to begin putting our team together, it’s building relationships with players immediately (after the Expansion Draft) so we have to be ready to go.”
For this week’s Data Dump Saturday, I wanted to take a deep dive into playoff goal scoring. We often hear tidbits from hockey media on scoring, but rarely are we given context, so I thought it would be a fun topic to explore.
Playoff scoring versus regular-season scoring
It is far more difficult to score in the playoffs given greater parity in the team matchups. A basic look at average goals scored by season proves that out.
One disclaimer on the above, the disparity between playoffs and regular season is bigger than the visual illustrates since this is per game and NOT per 60 minutes. There tends to be more overtime in the playoffs, therefore there are more minutes per game.
Another way to look at the difference between playoff and regular-season scoring is by looking at the shooting percentage.
The shooting percentage goes down in the playoffs for a couple reasons. First, teams are playing their best goalies as much as possible, if not exclusively. Second, qualifying teams represent the best squads in the league and scoring against them is often more difficult than against the teams that did not qualify for the playoffs.
If we take a quick peek at the 2021 playoff teams, it is no surprise that those that are still alive have a relatively higher shooting percentage than the teams eliminated. Only Colorado has a higher shooting percentage than the four teams remaining in the playoffs.
Scoring by position
When Jan Rutta scored in the third period of Game 2 of the semifinal series between the Tampa Bay Lightning and the New York Islanders, it was the first goal scored by a Lightning defenseman in the 2021 Stanley Cup Playoffs. That game was the thirteenth game for Tampa Bay in the playoffs, and one defensive goal every 13 games is well below average gap in games with a defensive goal. I immediately began to wonder if it is becoming more challenging for defensemen to score in the playoffs compared to the regular season.
I am not prepared to make any hard and fast conclusions, but it certainly seems like the trend in the playoffs is a steady decline in scoring by defensemen with only 12% thus far of 2021 playoff goals scored by defensemen.
If we look into the shooting percentage by defensemen, we see they are less effective than they have been in previous years.
Again, the 2021 playoffs could be a random anomaly and does not mean that teams should stop valuing scoring defensemen, but it is something to keep an eye on.
Power play scoring in the playoffs
The last segment I want look at is power play scoring in the playoffs versus the regular season. We have already established that there are more penalties called in the Stanley Cup Playoffs, thus leading to more opportunities for power play goals.
What I would like to understand is if power play goals account for a higher percentage of all goals scored during the playoffs versus the regular season.
As the visual shows, power play goals represent a higher percent of the goals scored in the playoffs compared to the regular season.
If we peak at 2021 playoff data to date, we can see there is no correlation to the teams that have advanced to the semifinals versus the teams that have been eliminated.
It is amazing to see the difference between Tampa Bay and Vegas right now with 38% of Tampa’s goals coming on the power play versus Vegas’ 8%.
I hope this gives you some more insights on goal scoring in the playoffs and adds context to the comments we hear during the television broadcasts. If you have any questions or have an area you want me to dig into, let me know in the comments section or contact me on twitter.
In the months leading up to this year’s NHL Entry Draft, we’ve been told by the various draft experts that there is no definitive, sure-fire top prospect on the board. Yet, despite that narrative, University of Michigan defenseman Owen Power is ranked No. 1 on most draft projections, making him, it would seem, the closest thing to a consensus No. 1 pick. The only opinion of Power that matters is the one held by the Buffalo Sabres, who will be picking first during the July 23 NHL Entry Draft. If they pass then Seattle Kraken general manager Ron Francis will have a choice to make, and one that could land Power in Seattle.
Defensemen don’t go first overall very often and since 2000 only three have – Rasmus Dahlin to Buffalo in 2018, Aaron Ekblad to Florida in 2014, and Erik Johnson to St. Louis in 2006 – which means that Power being available at the second pick is not far fetched.
The first thing that stands out about Power is his size. He’s listed at 6-foot-5 and 214 pounds, which is not quite as big as a Victor Hedman but puts him in that range.
Power was one of three top draft prospects at Michigan last year, joining Kent Johnson and Matty Beniers. Growing up in Mississauga, outside of Toronto, he could have chosen the Major-Junior route but instead had his eyes focused on college and Michigan.
“You see how historic the hockey program is here, how many good players that came out of it,” Power said of his decision during the Wolverines media day in the fall. “With the school part, it’s a really good school… I always knew I wanted to go to college, play college hockey. School’s a big part of our family, and my parents really believed in going to university. I also think just there’s more time to develop in college than Major Junior so I think that also played a part in it.”
College or Junior, Power now has himself positioned to be a high-end NHL Draft pick.
Owen Power by the numbers
Power began his NHL Draft journey in the USHL, playing for the Chicago Steel. He spent two seasons in the Windy City and finished with an impressive 12 goals, 28 assists, and 40 points in 45 games during his final season of 2019-20.
That would turn heads, and he was soon being praised as a top player for the 2021 NHL Draft. His freshman season did nothing to assuage that perception.
Playing against predominantly older players at the NCAA level this season, Power added 16 points in 26 games, which put him on the Big 10 all-rookie team. Already ascending the draft rankings, Power further solidified himself by playing for Canada at the IIHF World Championship in June.
He was one of the youngest players in the tournament, and playing against established pros, he collected three assists in ten games while drawing praise for his overall performance against tough competition.
“He’s calm with the puck for an 18-year-old,” Canada head coach Gerard Gallant said. “He made the right decisions 95 percent of the time. He’s a total package. He played big minutes so when an 18-year-old kid can come in and do that, you know he’s going to be a great player in the NHL for a long time.”
What draft scouts say about Owen Power
Obviously, Power’s size is attractive to NHL scouts. It’s not something that can be taught, and he will fit right in on an NHL blue line. However, despite that size, he’s not yet a bruiser, and that is something that could improve as he moves into the more physical pro game.
He has good skating ability, especially for a player of his stature, and can move the puck. Power has offensive upside and has put up numbers wherever he has played. You can pencil him in to be part of your power play if you draft him.
“Probably a top pairing guy,” Hockey Sense’s Chris Peters told the Sound Of Hockey Podcast. “He’s not a lock to be a No. 1 defenseman, but I think that he is. He’s in the same mold of like a Victor Hedman kind of player. Really good skater, great mobility, defends well, probably could stand to be a little bit meaner, a little more physical with his defending. But he gets pucks up ice, he does everything, everything’s really fluid and calm and under control.”
The Big 10 and Michigan hit the ice before most other amateur leagues in North America this year, which means that NHL scouts flocked to games.
Power has been viewed and scrutinized as much as any prospect, along with his two highly ranked teammates. That can obviously be a distraction, but Power showed no signs of losing focus.
“None of us really talk too much about it,” Power said at the start of the season. “We’ve said things here and there, but it’s not a big part of like what we talk about every day. We all know, the draft is kind of out of control, where we go. So, just focusing every day and trying to get better.”
Owen Power on film
Reading about what scouts think of Power is one thing, but you really appreciate him by watching him play.
As a defenseman, he possesses all the skills and attributes that you would want out of a top-of-the-rotation guy.
Power contributes offensively but can also defend in his own end. He has size and has learned to use that size and reach to throw off would-be attackers, as seen in this clip.
Owen Power is such a big frame. #2021NHLDraft His strengths in defending will be different than others. I like finding little moments like this where you can make assessments on agility, reach, etc, and how he can recover to influence plays. pic.twitter.com/DaF5fFDlPh
He can move the puck out of his zone and displays not only great vision in the offensive zone but an accurate passing ability, as seen here where he sets up a goal with a pin-point assist.
Stop the count? Cam York (PHI) goes five-hole after Owen Power (2021) sets him up low in the offensive zone. pic.twitter.com/Q4dBIJe1o0
Seattle picking Owen Power in the draft all depends on what happens with the Sabres. Buffalo very well could pass as they still have a young Dahlin in the fold. Will they want another young, left-handed defenseman? It’s possible Buffalo prefers to pick up a center, such as Matthew Beniers.
If left available, there is a strong likelihood the Kraken will snap up Power with the second pick. Having a defenseman like him is a necessity in today’s NHL, and Francis has looked to the blue line in the draft before. As the general manager with the Carolina Hurricanes, Francis ran four drafts and in three of them, went defense with his top pick.
In 2014 Francis took Haydn Fleury with the seventh overall pick, in 2015 he drafted Noah Hanifin at No. 5, and in 2016 he selected Jake Bean with pick 13. His track record suggests building from the blue line, and he just may get the chance to do so again.
That leaves the question about whether or not Power is ready to jump into the NHL. It’s a tough position to do so at such a young age, but the top picks have done it before.
The tricky part for Seattle is that if they were to draft Power that decision would have to come quick. As a college player, Power is not eligible to participate in the Kraken main camp unless he signs an NHL contract. If he prefers to stay in school, Seattle would have to wait to see him.
He recently touched on the subject, saying that he does lean towards one more season at Michigan.
What is Owen Power thinking about returning to Michigan or turning pro – NHL Now has the answer pic.twitter.com/KiHQuRZ2ZE
The draw to return to school is understandable, but would that be a deterrent to Francis in picking him? Power isn’t an automatic to be ready for the NHL in year one and another season playing for a big NCAA program with perhaps a shot at playing in the World Juniors might ultimately help Power and in turn, help Seattle.
One of the points of discussion during the Stanley Cup Playoffs is the quality of officiating. We have heard from columnists, coaches, and plenty of fans complaining about the calls going against them this year. This is a common complaint every year.
A few months ago, I published a Data Dump piece on penalties that evaluated how often they were assessed in games and when they were most frequently called during the regular season. For this week’s Data Dump, I wanted to revisit that piece with a focus on comparing regular season penalties called to those called in playoff games.
Penalties called per 60 minutes
I was a surprised to see that the rate of penalties called in playoff games is higher than regular-season games.
But whenever you look at data, it is important to add context to the figures. Like in my previous article, I used the goal differential to provide context to these penalties.
Penalties called where the goal differential is two goals or less seems rather consistent between regular season and playoffs. It is in the blowout game situation (goal differential of three or more) where things seem to get a bit out of hand. If you watch playoff hockey on a regular basis you can formulate why this happens, as teams tend to “send messages” or get frustrated and start committing penalties when the game becomes one-sided.
Penalties called by scenario: leading team vs trailing team
When we looked at the regular season trends a few months ago, there seemed to be some indicators that referees were more likely to call a penalty on teams that were leading a game versus trailing a game.
When we isolate the playoff games, there seems to be less variance between the penalties called on leading versus trailing teams.
The last two playoff seasons appear to have little to no difference in the number penalties called. Before we wrap this up and claim there is no bias in calling penalties if a team is leading versus trailing in the playoffs, let’s add some score differential context.
In the chart above, the difference between penalties called on the leading versus trailing team seems very consistent in the regular season, regardless of the goal differential. Let us look at the playoff games.
In the chart above, the rate at which penalties are called is flipped in games where the goal differential is three or more. The data shows that penalties are more likely called on the trailing team when the goal differential is three or more. As previously stated, the reasons for this are the “message sending” and frustration-type penalties.
Penalties called in the third period
One of the most compelling visuals in the regular season post I did in March was the chart showing penalties called in the third period based on goal differential. Here is the updated visual with the breakdown.
One of the takeaways I see in the chart above is that the leading team seems more likely to be called for a penalty in the last five minutes of a one-goal game than any other time in the game. Now we can look at how this same data looks in the playoffs.
The large discrepancy of penalties in the playoffs in the last five minutes of a one-goal game between the leading and trailing team is no longer present. What jumps out at me in this chart is the spread in the two-goal game. In the first 10 minutes of the third period in a two-goal game, the leading team is much more likely to get a penalty called on them (about 61 percent) compared to the trailing team (about 39 percent).
Conclusions
Directionally, there are some interesting things in this analysis of penalties called in the regular season versus playoff games, but before we draw any hard-and-fast conclusions, here are a few other things to consider:
Because only the top-16 teams qualify for the playoffs, there should be more parity in playoff games compared to regular season games, which could explain some of the variance when comparing the two types of contests.
There is also a much bigger sample size when looking at the regular season versus the playoffs. The higher volume of regular-season games will smooth out any anomalies that could create higher variance with a smaller sample size.
There are always other dimensions that could be added to the analysis to gather more intelligence about the data (i.e., type of penalty, player personnel deployed, etc.).
I hope this gives you a little deeper understanding of penalties called during the Stanley Cup Playoffs as opposed to just believing a coach’s remarks in a post-game press conference or a tweet you might have seen from a prominent journalist.
