The full group will take the ice at Kraken Community Iceplex for the first time on Thursday, with preseason kicking off Saturday.
NHL camps have been shortened for the foreseeable future, with only two weeks (instead of three, like in past years) to prepare for the regular season and four preseason games (instead of six). So, roster cuts will happen fast and furiously as Seattle’s front office works toward its Opening Night group.
Like any season, there are plenty of questions surrounding the Kraken as they open camp. We gathered our team here to give our own answers to those questions and make a few predictions along the way. Enjoy!
Q1: What caught your eye at Kraken Rookie Camp or the Prospect Challenge games?
John Barr: One of my biggest takeaways from the Prospect Challenge games was that Jagger Firkus looked a cut above everyone else. His shot and release have always been there, but his pace and vision looked outstanding. He even handled the physicality along the boards from time to time. I’m not overreacting to what I saw, but it’s encouraging to see the progress.
Blaiz Grubic: Jani Nyman is huge. He is now listed at 6-foot-4, two inches taller than his draft-year height.
On the opening day of rookie camp, I stood near the glass during a drill, and his stature was impressive. His shot remains his greatest strength, and it was on full display as he scored in drill after drill.
Nyman’s skating also caught my eye. He takes a while to reach top speed, but his movement looked more fluid once he got there.
Darren Brown: I went in thinking Tyson Jugnauth was going to stand out, and he proved me right. He’s so smooth and elusive, and in the game we watched in person in Abbotsford on Saturday, his poise while skating the puck out of danger gave me reason to believe he’s at the top of the call-up list for blueliners this season.
We often hear that the concern for Jugnauth is whether he can defend well enough to stop NHLers. But every time I noticed him in the defensive zone, he had the puck on his stick and was skating it out of harm’s way.
Curtis Isacke: I thought Oscar Fisker Mølgaard looked physically bigger—which is not to say “big,” but he looked meaningfully sturdier. And this development came with no diminishment of his crisp skating or impressive handling skills. He routinely abused his competition in one-on-one drills at rookie camp.
We know Mølgaard can contribute defensively and on the penalty kill. If more strength further elevates his forechecking and puck-protection skills, he could be a real factor in driving transition play for the NHL team this season.
Q2: What is the headline story you will be watching as Kraken Training Camp begins?
Blaiz: The headline story for me is whether Shane Wright can earn a larger role.
I recently posted Five questions heading into Training Camp, and that was my first one. I want to see the offseason distractions fade and Wright focus fully on hockey.
I have not lost faith in Wright. At only 22, he can still become the player the Kraken envisioned when they drafted him. A major step forward would mean moving up the depth chart and into a second-line role. This will remain a key storyline into the regular season, too.
Curtis: On paper, the top-nine winger roles are set: Bobby McMann, Jared McCann, and Berkly Catton in some combination at left wing, and Jordan Eberle, Kaapo Kakko, and Mackie Samoskevich in some order on the right side. But I still think an important story to follow in this camp concerns two young, skilled wingers we’ve already mentioned: Firkus and Nyman.
Both need to prove there is substance and depth to their NHL games beyond the occasional offensive flash. If one or both “look like they belong” in the NHL during camp, it could prompt a roster move to break the logjam or at least put them first in line for a call-up when injuries strike, and perhaps eventually vault them ahead of the likes of Freddy Gaudreau or Ryan Winterton.
John: I think Shane is obviously one of the storylines to watch, but I’ll also be watching Jared McCann. If the Kraken expect to take a step this year, I think they need a healthy and fully functioning Jared McCann. He’s really been the best player on the roster every year, but injuries have stifled his production over the last few seasons.
Darren: My two biggest storylines are Wright and McCann, but since I don’t want to double up, I’ll go with how Bobby McMann fits in. We obviously got a good look at the scoring winger after he was acquired late last season, but it will no longer have the temporary feel it did when things were unraveling for the Kraken down the stretch.
Getting McMann in the fold more permanently was important to general manager Jason Botterill this summer, and now is his time to show he was worth the long-term investment.
Q3: What could we see at Training Camp that would be an indicator the Kraken may exceed expectations?
Darren: I’ll just echo John’s sentiments from the previous question and say that everyone needs to get through camp at full health. Key players were dropping like flies at Training Camp last season, and McCann—as critical a piece of the team’s success as there is—never really got to full strength.
There are young players knocking on the door, but there isn’t a lot of veteran depth in this organization right now. So, stay healthy, fellas.
Blaiz: My expectations for the Kraken are higher than most. I see them as a team capable of making the playoffs.
As poorly as last season ended, the Kraken held a playoff spot through March 18, 67 games into the season. They then went 3-10-2 over their final 15 games and fell out of the picture.
At camp, I want to see players aged 23 and younger create healthy competition for roster spots. Only Matty Beniers and his former Michigan teammate, Mackie Samoskevich, cleared the 30-point mark last season. More consistent offensive production from that age group would go a long way toward the Kraken’s success.
Players who spent last season in Coachella Valley, including Jagger Firkus, Oscar Fisker Mølgaard, and Jani Nyman, can help provide that competition and offensive boost.
John: Indicators of a successful team in Training Camp? Nothing. As flashy and exciting as some players might look in Training Camp and preseason games, I don’t think we will know how this team might perform until we get 10 games into the season.
Curtis: I think Blaiz is onto something in the sense that we can be reasonably confident in the defensive production we’ll get from Josh Mahura or Cale Fleury. Up front, we have a pretty good sense of the level of play we can expect from Gaudreau or even Kakko.
If young players are making a push for those roles, and there is a legitimate conversation about whether, for example, Ty Nelson is the team’s best bet as a third-pair defenseman, it could raise the ceiling on the season. If Samoskevich is outplaying a veteran for a top-six role and power-play time, our hopes might justifiably rise—even if John is right that you can’t earn standings points in Training Camp.
Q4: Which player has the most to prove at Training Camp?
Darren: Wright. The guy requested a trade this summer, and when that didn’t come to fruition, his agent changed his tune and made it sound like Shane is fully committed to the team. A big reason he wanted out in the first place was his usage, but he still has to show this team and its coaching staff that he deserves bigger minutes.
Plus, he may now have to reassure his teammates that he wants to be here and contribute. At 22 years old, he created his own drama this summer. Now, if he wants to quiet that noise, he has to start performing like the top forward he thinks he is.
Curtis: Some might consider this a “zag,” but I’ll say Vince Dunn. Rewind a couple years, and we were talking about Dunn as a No. 1 defender with impressive two-way skills. Due to a mix of injuries, performance malaise, and some speed bumps adjusting to Lane Lambert’s systems, I think many have shifted Dunn from the “franchise cornerstone” category into the “probable trade bait” category.
Now going into a contract season, and still only 29, Vince Dunn was named an alternate captain for the first time. Can he build off that vote of confidence and reassert himself as a skilled force on the blue line? And, if so, does he play himself back into the future story of this team—and perhaps even make himself an early extension candidate?
John: If we’re just talking about Training Camp, I would say Jani Nyman. The team gave him plenty of opportunities last season, but he didn’t seize them and prove he was ready for the NHL. To be effective, he can’t just make the team and play in a fourth-line role. He needs to earn a spot in the top nine and prove he can be trusted with more minutes.
If he doesn’t break through this season, he’s in danger of slipping into the “really good AHL player” category.
Blaiz: Jared McCann is my candidate for a player with something to prove. A lower-body injury has lingered for the past two years, and Training Camp should show whether he is fully healthy.
McCann led the Kraken in scoring through the franchise’s first four seasons. He was on pace to lead the team again last season, but he missed 30 games because of injury.
Since scoring 40 goals in 2022-23, McCann has not reached the 30-goal mark again. He scored 29, 22, and 20 goals over the past three seasons. Even while managing the injury, he was on pace for 32 goals last season, so reaching 30 goals again would be a worthy target as McCann enters a contract year.
Q5: What under-the-radar story or player has your attention over the next couple weeks?
Curtis: I’m curious if there is a “surprise” young player who sticks with the NHL team longer than we would expect. Two years ago, Nathan Villeneuve survived multiple rounds of roster cuts before being reassigned to his junior team closer to Opening Night. Last year, it was Oscar Fisker Mølgaard who left an impression with his lengthy training camp stay.
If I had to guess on a similar bit of “will-he-or-won’t-he” drama this season, Villeneuve would be a decent bet to repeat, but I’ll throw out Ty Nelson.
Blaiz: Dolan Gilbert. Who, you might ask?
Gilbert is the Kraken’s first full-time emergency backup goaltender, or EBUG, and he is on the Training Camp roster. The role marks a bit of an end of an era, as NHL teams must now carry a full-time EBUG who travels with the club.
Previously, the home team had an EBUG in the building who could play for either team if needed. Gilbert explained his role this way: “I’ll be traveling with the team per the new rules, so [participating in] scratch skates, injury skates, rehab skates or whatever they are, being available there. Giving some time off to the goalies on the Kraken, and let them be ready for game nights is the big thing.”
While he doesn’t factor into any roster decisions, it will be fun to see him practicing with NHL players.
John: Competition. It’s no secret the Kraken lack high-end talent, which means they have a glut of middle-six forwards. Other than Matty Beniers centering the top line, I think all lineup combinations are on the table. This should create healthy competition for who gets which opportunity.
I don’t expect Ryan Winterton to be on the power play, but he could sneakily earn an expanded role this season. I wonder if we’ll get a glimpse of that over the next few weeks.
Darren: Curtis got it. I love watching which youngsters stick around deeper into Training Camp.
Bonus: Who scores the first goal in Saturday’s preseason opener against the Calgary Flames?
Curtis: I’ll go with Vince Dunn. We’re kind of guessing which “group” will play in this game, but if there is any line or pair that I think will get the home game rather than Sunday’s road game, it’s the Dunn-Larsson duo. So, let’s say Dunn.
John: Nathan Villeneuve. He is going to get a greasy one.
Blaiz: Since it is the first preseason game, there is a good chance I pick someone who does not even dress. That said, I am going with Shane Wright.
He has the offensive tools to succeed, and I think he starts the season on the right—or Wright—foot by scoring goal No. 1.
Darren: This reminds me of the Celebrity Jeopardy sketch on Saturday Night Live, where Will Ferrell—playing the late Alex Trebek—gets so fed up by the idiocy of the contestants that he makes the Final Jeopardy question, “Where are we right now?” Then he accepts any semi-coherent answer as correct.
Imagine Ferrell saying, in his best Trebek voice, “Name a Kraken player. Any player will do, just name one.”
To which I say, “Karson Kuhlman.”
Now, in my best Sean Connery, “YOUR ASH IS MINE, CURTISH ISHACKE!”
Is there anything you’re looking for during training camp? If so, share it with us in the comments section.
On Sept. 4, the last of the Seattle Kraken’s restricted free agents, Jacob Melanson, signed a contract with the team. Though additional signings could still come during Training Camp and into the regular season, of course, it seems Seattle’s summer business has now come to a close.
What better time for a quick trip to “Kraken Contract Corner“? Across two posts (because I’m too verbose), we’ll mainly investigate how the Kraken fared in its four most significant summer free-agent signings. In Part II, we’ll address the Curtis Douglas and Melanson signings and conclude with a few rapid-fire contract notes to file away as we approach the 2026-27 regular season.
Let’s dive in to Part I. Check back soon for Part II.
Bobby McMann
Six-year, $5.75 million AAV UFA contract, signed Jul. 1, 2026
The takeaway
The profile brings risk, but the contract is fairly consistent with the limited historical precedent for a late-blooming player like McMann. The average value is reasonable, particularly in this ascending-cap environment. The team likely views McMann as a necessary firewall against offensive failure—even if some in the fanbase could argue that is a bug, not a feature.
Details
Market analysis
There are a few different ways of looking at McMann’s market value.
The first method is to look at his last year before free agency in historical context. McMann scored 29 goals and added 17 assists in the 2025-26 season and hit free agency at age 30. He then received a six-year contract worth 5.53 percent of the Year 1 salary cap from Seattle. (Note that we’ll use cap percentage rather than raw dollar figures in our analysis of contracts to account for the shifting salary cap context.)
Over the last four years, unrestricted free-agent forwards between ages 28 and 32 who scored between 24 and 34 goals and had between 36 and 56 total points in their free-agency season secured contracts that averaged 4.4 years in length and 6.47 percent of the Year 1 cap. (The average age of these players was close to McMann’s current age.) This makes the trade-off simple: McMann got more term (and financial security) in exchange for below-average value—particularly given the fact that it is now apparent the cap will be escalating for the foreseeable future.
Yet, that pool of players differed from McMann starkly in their overall track record. McMann is a notorious late bloomer. He has played 218 NHL games, posting 64 goals and 41 assists. The most “similar” player in this first comparable pool is Pius Suter, who had played 364 games, scored 82 goals, and added 80 assists. The “average” player in this group almost triples McMann’s marks (602 NHL games, 164 goals, 188 assists).
The shorter track record suggests there could be greater risk and variability in McMann’s potential outcomes than would be typical of the pool generally. If we were to look at comparables for similarly aged free-agent forwards based only on their career numbers as they entered unrestricted free agency, we end up with a wildly different result. Among forwards aged 28-32 with career marks at or below 340 games, 100 goals, and 100 assists, McMann’s comparables averaged just 1.9 years of term and 1.57 percent of the Year 1 cap.
How about a middle-ground approach that searches for players with lesser career records, but similarly strong free-agency years? I searched again using the same career thresholds but adding in a requirement of 20-plus goals in the free-agency year. Here, we narrowed our list to only three recent examples.
Kiefer Sherwood signed with the Sharks this offseason for five years, 5.53 percent of the cap, with 66 goals and 68 assists in 337 career games.
Ilya Mikheyev signed with the Canucks in 2022 for four years, 5.76 percent of the cap, despite a career track record of only 146 games played, 36 goals, and 36 assists.
Michael Bunting signed with the Carolina Hurricanes in 2023 for three years and 5.39 percent of the cap, with 57 goals and 69 assists in 187 career games.
With an average of 5.56 percent of the cap and four years of term, teams got a modest AAV discount and very little term discount on these short-track-record players compared with our first sample.
How does McMann stack up? Sherwood’s contract is very similar—one year shorter, but Sherwood is a year older than McMann. Arguably, McMann had a better free-agent season (29 goals) than both Mikheyev (21) and Bunting (23), but Mikheyev and Bunting were both 28 at signing, two full years younger than McMann.
Assuming for the sake of argument these context factors more or less cancel out, McMann received a Year 1 cap percentage right in line with this micro-market of late-blooming scorers, but also received more term. This is likely where the negotiation focused and was the area where the Kraken gave ground to secure the deal.
How have Bunting and Mikheyev fared since signing their deals? Bunting has played for an eye-popping four teams during the original three years of his free-agent deal, though he continued to chip in offensively, averaging 17.3 goals per season. Mikheyev has also moved teams, spending two years in Vancouver and two in Chicago during his contract. He averaged 15.5 goals per season.
Context analysis
McMann is an auxiliary scoring forward on the far side of his 30th birthday. One could reasonably ask whether a building team should be signing this type of player. At the same time, one must ponder whether the Kraken view themselves as a building team or a borderline playoff club, for which marginal scoring is highly significant.
Assuming the goal is to deploy the strongest NHL team you can and compete for the playoffs, McMann projects to provide strong goal-scoring “value” relative to dollars spent in the short term—though the Bunting and Mikheyev case studies suggest that our expectations may overshoot the likely reality.
The term is lengthy by any metric we evaluated above. That said, the contract’s cap percentage will continue to tumble over time and should be low enough that the deal is relatively easily tolerated or moved in years 4-6, when McMann has only a 10-team no-trade list.
Grade: B
It’s hard to give this move a “good” or “bad” mark given the complexity of the situation. The Kraken operated within the general market confines, and your opinion on the deal likely turns on the “vision” question surrounding the signing.
Mackie Samoskevich
Three-year, $3.85 million AAV RFA contract, signed Jul. 1, 2026
The takeaway
The contract offers short-term value for an ascending restricted free agent. It also sets up one more negotiation for a big-money contract extension before Samoskevich hits unrestricted free agency.
Details
Market analysis
Before signing, Samoskevich was a 23-year-old restricted free agent with arbitration rights. Last season with Florida, Samoskevich had 12 goals and 20 assists. Using a sample of 22-to-25-year-old restricted free agents with between eight and 16 goals and 12 and 28 assists in their pre-contract seasons, we arrived at a pool of 24 comparable player contracts over the last four seasons. The pool averaged 3.25 years in term and 3.28 percent of the Year 1 cap. Samoskevich’s contract was three years and 3.7 percent of the Year 1 cap.
Though the value came in just slightly “above market,” it strikes me as fair given (1) the clear, ascending cap environment relevant to years 2 and 3, and (2) the fact that the player’s true production level was potentially role-suppressed on a Stanley Cup-caliber team.
Context analysis
Samoskevich is a pre-prime, ascending player on a very modest contract. He fits on any team, and, as I have argued, is a terrific fit for this year’s Kraken team whether it makes a playoff run or not. If he stays healthy, there is little doubt he will provide surplus value over the term of the deal. The question is how much.
The public second-guessing of the Samoskevich deal came with the term. Should the Kraken have tried to lock Samoskevich into a longer-term deal now? With the benefit of hindsight, one can also look at ensuing long-term contracts for barely established players like Noah Ostlund, Braden Bowman, and Fraser Minton and wonder if Seattle miscalculated.
That said, at the time Seattle signed Samoskevich, the vast majority of his comparables signed “bridge” contracts in the two-to-four-year range just like Samoskevich did. The scoring production of players in this range just leaves too much profile uncertainty for the player and team to see eye-to-eye on long-term value.
Only four of his comparables—Anton Frondell (six years), Logan Stankoven (eight years), Frank Nazar (seven years), and Matt Boldy (seven years)—had signed true long-term deals. It would be wise to hesitate in comparing Samoskevich to any of these players, aside from perhaps Nazar. At the time, though, it would have been easy enough to consider the Nazar deal an outlier.
Samoskevich will still be a restricted free agent when the contract ends, which affords the team the opportunity to negotiate a long-term deal beginning in July, 2028.
Grade: B+
The deal falls within the range of expectation, but as an RFA deal, it should return significant value for the team. More players and contracts like this would move the needle for the Kraken.
* * *
What do you think about these deals? Any other questions for your Kraken contracts corner correspondent? Let us know in the comments below or on X/Twitter or BlueSky at Sound_Hockey or Deepseahockey.
Curtis Isacke
Curtis is a Sound Of Hockey contributor and member of the Kraken press corps. Curtis is an attorney by day, and he has read the NHL collective bargaining agreement and bylaws so you don’t have to. He can be found analyzing the Kraken, NHL Draft, and other hockey topics on Twitter and Bluesky @deepseahockey.
With Rookie Camp drawing to an end Tuesday and Training Camp starting Thursday, NHL hockey is back, baby!
Training Camp is condensed this year with the NHL moving from an 82- to an 84-game regular-season schedule. To account for the two additional games, the preseason schedule has been reduced from six games to four. That also shortens camp.
During the 2025-26 season, the Kraken had 21 days between the start of Training Camp and their first game. This season, they have only 14 days.
Let’s take a look at five questions as the Kraken head into their shorter-than-before Training Camp.
1. Can Shane Wright earn a larger role?
One of the bigger clickbait stories this offseason followed agent Kurt Overhardt’s comments suggesting general manager Jason Botterill had agreed to trade Shane Wright. There was likely a conversation about a possible trade, but no deal has materialized. More recently, Overhardt told Emerald City Spectrum that Wright is “fully committed [to the Kraken].”
Shane Wright (photo/Brian Liesse)
Wright played largely in a third-line role last season. He also received protected deployment, which limited his defensive-zone starts. His most common linemates were Kaapo Kakko and rookie Berkly Catton, and the three had the fewest defensive-zone starts among Kraken forwards.
On the other hand, Wright ranked among the top three Kraken forwards in offensive-zone starts, but he converted those opportunities into only 27 points.
Points are not everything. Head coach Lane Lambert discussed Wright’s 200-foot game during his end-of-season news conference.
“Everybody’s going to look at Shane Wright’s season and go, ‘Oh, gee, he had this many points [this year], and he had that many points last year,’” Lambert said. “Ask Shane if he feels like he’s a better player now than he was at the beginning of the year, and the answer would be yes, he does. Sometimes the points can fool you a little bit. I thought Shane got stronger defensively, I thought he got stronger on face-offs, and I thought he improved his 200-foot game. And what I see about that is that that’s a better formula for the future with him than in the past.”
Wright is only 22 and has plenty of room to grow. He is also building trust with the coaching staff, but he now needs to seize the opportunities that come his way.
Camp will show whether Wright can earn more than a third-line role. The coaching staff will evaluate his defensive and offensive game to determine whether a larger role is warranted. As for a trade, time will tell. It would not make sense to move Wright at a low point in his value, and the Kraken are unlikely to walk away from his upside without a strong return.
2. Is Jared McCann fully healthy?
Jared McCann (photo/Brian Liesse)
Seattle sniper Jared McCann missed the final three games of the 2025-26 season. On April 16, he underwent a procedure to address a lower-body injury that had been nagging him throughout the campaign. McCann also underwent surgery after the 2024-25 season to repair a lower-body injury, but that injury never seemed to fully heal, causing him to miss parts of last season’s Training Camp.
The one-time 40-goal scorer ended up missing 30 games last season because of the injury. He settled for 20 goals in 52 games, but that was a 32-goal pace if he had been healthy for the full season. Since scoring 40 in 2022-23, he has not surpassed 30 goals again, recording 29, 22, and 20 goals in the following three seasons.
McCann often stretched and tested his leg between plays last season, and the injury clearly affected his game. By undergoing the procedure immediately after the season, McCann gave himself as much recovery time as possible. Now, eyes will be on him during Training Camp to see whether the injury lingers.
McCann is the Kraken’s all-time leading scorer with 283 points, and a fully healthy version of him (especially in a contract year) could provide the offensive boost Seattle needs.
3. Where will Mackie Samoskevich fit in the Kraken lineup?
Training Camp will offer the first chance to see Mackie Samoskevich on the ice in a Kraken uniform. Acquired from the Florida Panthers this offseason, Samoskevich arrives with potential to add speed and scoring to Seattle’s lineup.
Botterill described Samoskevich as a player with “speed, skill, and scoring ability.” He added that the 2025 Stanley Cup champion “can contribute offensively and add a spark to our lineup.”
Samoskevich plays on the right wing but skated in a bottom-six role with Florida. He could be in line for a promotion in Seattle.
With Eeli Tolvanen signing with the New York Rangers, Samoskevich could land on Chandler Stephenson’s line, or he could reunite with former Michigan teammate Matty Beniers.
Training Camp and preseason games will show where the coaching staff is thinking of slotting in Samoskevich.
Training Camp offers a chance to see how those prospects are progressing and whether they are ready for NHL action.
Jani Nyman, Oscar Fisker-Mølgaard, Jagger Firkus, and Logan Morrison ranked as Coachella Valley’s top four players in points per game (20 games played minimum) last season.
Firkus is the only player in that forward group who has yet to appear in an NHL game. Still, he appears close to breaking through and has looked good in Rookie Camp. Nyman has played 40 games with the Kraken, but his scoring touch has not consistently translated to the NHL.
On defense, Ville Ottavainen, Ty Nelson, and Tyson Jugnauth are players to watch. Jugnauth and Nelson led Firebirds defensemen in scoring with 45 and 35 points, respectively. Ottavainen is a more defensive-minded defenseman.
At face value, there isn’t much available space for a player to jump into the NHL roster if they weren’t there last year. But injuries always happen, so some of these players will find themselves in Kraken uniforms sooner or later.
Darren Brown gave a full breakdown of young players who could impact the lineup this season, so give that a read if you want to learn more about which guys are knocking on the door.
5. How will the defensive pairings shake out?
The Kraken’s defensive group appears mostly set for the 2026-27 season. Jamie Oleksiak is the only departure, having signed with Vancouver as a free agent. Seattle has seven returning defensemen.
The pairings, however, will look different. Expect Vince Dunn and Adam Larsson to continue leading the Kraken in ice time. They have been paired together now for five seasons.
The bottom four could feature new combinations, though. Ryker Evans and Ryan Lindgren could compete for a spot on the second pairing to play alongside Brandon Montour. Lindgren may have the edge. His defensive-minded game would give Montour more freedom to join the offense, and he was paired frequently with Montour last season so there is already familiarity.
Ryker Evans (photo/Brian Liesse)
Josh Mahura and Cale Fleury will likely compete for the final regular spot on the blue line, with the other acting as the seventh defenseman. Lindgren, Mahura, and Evans are all left-shot defensemen, so one may need to play on his off side.
Preseason incoming
The Kraken open their preseason schedule Saturday, Sept. 19 against the Vancouver Canucks, providing the first game-action look of 2026-27. The four-game exhibition slate will give the coaching staff limited time to evaluate the group before Opening Night, so these questions will have to get answered quickly.
What questions do you have as the Kraken head into Training Camp? Let us know in the comments below.
Blaiz Grubic
Blaiz Grubic is a contributor at Sound Of Hockey. A passionate hockey fan and player for over 30 years, Blaiz grew up in the Pacific Northwest and is an alumni of Washington State University (Go Cougs!). When he’s not playing, watching, or writing about hockey, he enjoys quality time with his wife and daughter or getting out on a golf course for a quick round. Follow @blaizg on BlueSky or X.
Do you smell that? That’s hockey in the air. Youngsters in the Seattle Kraken organization split a weekend series in Abbotsford against Vancouver’s prospects, winning 7-3 on Saturday and losing 5-2 on Sunday. The games came as part of Rookie Camp, the first official on-ice activities for the organization. Rookie Camp wraps up Tuesday, and we will then transition into proper Kraken Training Camp starting Thursday.
There are several players at Rookie Camp who have designs on making the NHL roster. Jani Nyman played 28 games for the Kraken last season and 12 the year before. Jagger Firkus—who has yet to see NHL action but has proven his scoring prowess can translate from the junior ranks to pro hockey—racked up 92 points in two seasons with the Coachella Valley Firebirds. And let’s not forget Oscar Fisker Mølgaard, who seemed to fit right in during his stints with the big club last season.
Those three and other young players will be especially interesting to watch during Training Camp because it’s no secret that a Seattle youth movement is in full swing. General manager Jason Botterill has publicly stated that he wants to avoid boxing out young players from the NHL roster, and when you look at who the Kraken have in the fold entering camp, there is quite obviously plenty of opportunity for them.
So, with this in mind, which young players can impact Seattle’s team this season?
The roster locks
None of these will surprise you, but all are 24 years old or younger, so I thought they were worth mentioning.
Matty Beniers, 23, is a grizzled veteran at this point and is poised to take on an even bigger leadership role after obtaining the “A” as alternate captain two seasons ago. The two-way center has scored 20-plus goals three out of four seasons. Can he take another step and hit 30 this year?
Mackie Samoskevich, 23, was the biggest acquisition of the offseason, coming via trade with the Florida Panthers. He joins his old Michigan buddy, Beniers, after two full seasons plus a rookie “cup of coffee” with the Panthers. He was largely miscast in Sunrise and forced to play a depth role, but despite averaging under 15 minutes per game during his entire tenure there, he still managed 15 goals in 2024-25 and 12 in 2025-26. If head coach Lane Lambert can find him a top-six role, Samoskevich could see a nice uptick in his offensive production.
Shane Wright, 22, inserted his own name into offseason drama when his agent, Kurt Overhardt, publicly shared that Wright had requested a trade out of Seattle. Well, here we are on the eve of Training Camp, and no such trade has been consummated. Our expectation is that Wright will be in camp and will remain a member of the Kraken for the foreseeable future.
It’s no secret Wright has fallen short of the lofty expectations that followed him after he slipped from a no-doubt No. 1 overall pick to Seattle in the fourth spot at the 2022 NHL Draft. We all expected him to be a budding star by now, and that simply hasn’t happened. How much of that is the team’s fault, how much of it is Wright’s fault, and how much of it is that he simply isn’t the player most pundits thought remains up for debate.
But the fact of the matter is that the front office still believes Wright can become an impactful NHLer, and they want nothing more than for him to grab the reins and prove he belongs in a top-six spot. Meanwhile, he is also entering the last season of his entry-level deal, which means he will be a restricted free agent next summer. So there are a lot of reasons for Wright to be motivated to grant the Kraken their wish and start looking like one of the top players on the team, even if it only increases his eventual trade value.
Berkly Catton, 20, will almost surely break camp with the big club after spending the entire 2025-26 season in Seattle as a 19-year-old. Fresh out of the WHL, Catton’s seven goals and 10 assists were a far cry from the 109 points he posted in 57 junior games for the Spokane Chiefs two years ago.
But the jump from major junior straight to the NHL is massive, so it isn’t surprising that the offensive production never materialized in Catton’s first year as a pro. Still, we saw flashes all season long of the potential this young man possesses. Catton does have real star potential, but he still needs to develop.
Remember, Catton did not have the option of playing in the AHL last season because of his age. He does have that option this year, so if things don’t go well for him early on, the Kraken could consider giving him time in Coachella Valley to dominate and prove to himself that he can produce as a pro. Still, something wonky will have to happen in Training Camp for him to start 2026-27 as a Firebird.
Ryker Evans, 24, is the only “young” lock on the blue line, and although it’s wild to think about, he’s already starting to move out of that “young player” category. They grow up so fast! Like Wright, Evans will be a restricted free agent after this season and should be motivated for a strong performance.
Ryan Winterton, 23, grew into a lineup stalwart last season, doing everything asked of him by Lambert and proving he can be a full-time NHLer. His offensive production and usage were limited—just four goals and 14 assists while averaging 11:59 of ice time—but he ended up playing 68 games and constantly bringing the pace and energy a depth forward simply must show to solidify himself on the NHL roster.
Winterton quietly dealt with a devastating family situation last season, so with that behind him, will he take a step toward offensive production this season as well?
Jacob Melanson, 23, may not have fallen into this “roster lock” category for us a couple weeks ago. But now that the Kraken have signed him to a three-year, one-way deal worth $1.45 million per year, they have shown how highly they think of Melanson. After all, the Kraken played noticeably better with him in the lineup last season, and I do not believe that’s a coincidence.
Depending on the health of the team and how things shake out, I wouldn’t be surprised if one of Melanson or Winterton ends up getting scratched from time to time this season, but I do expect both to be on the NHL roster come Opening Night.
Could play a significant role
So, that’s seven players aged 24 or under who I expect to be with the NHL club on Oct. 1. One could argue the aforementioned players will all be full-timers.
The youth movement likely will not stop there, however. Seattle does not have much veteran depth, so any injuries will have to be backfilled by one of the youngsters champing at the bit for NHL time.
Here are a few players who have a strong chance of playing significant roles for the Kraken this season, either immediately out of camp or farther down the road.
Oscar Fisker Mølgaard, 21, is way ahead of the normal development curve of a second-round pick. Having already played 13 games for the Kraken last season and earning rave reviews from Lambert, you can bet he’ll be one of the first call-ups if he doesn’t make the roster outright. He looked good in the prospect games in Abbotsford over the weekend and seems to have gotten a bit bigger over the offseason.
Jani Nyman, 22, is entering what feels like a crucial season. He’s gotten a lot of NHL opportunities already, with 40 games under his belt over two seasons. While his raw ability to shoot and score from anywhere makes him appealing, Lambert’s coaching staff clearly wasn’t enamored by his play away from the puck in 2025-26. If he isn’t scoring the lights out, the team needs to trust him. Nyman didn’t earn that trust last season.
He regained his scoring touch after he returned to Coachella Valley. Let’s see if he’s taken another step this summer to earn a more consistent role with the Kraken.
Jagger Firkus, 22, is undoubtedly knocking at the NHL door. Though he hasn’t yet played a game for the Kraken, we are under the impression that Seattle was considering calling him up at the end of last season before he got injured, derailing those plans. A prolific junior scorer, there’s hope Firkus can be a productive NHLer. He too looked good in Abbotsford, playing with speed and creativity and scoring a pretty goal on Sunday.
Things went sideways after Jugnauth tied it; the Canucks pumped in three straight goals on camp invitee Maks Corovic.
Tyson Jugnauth, 22, appears to be at the top of the defensive depth chart right now among players who could soon make the jump. The smooth-skating offensive defenseman is coming off an impressive 45-point AHL campaign and has probably shoved his way into the first call-up spot on the blue line. Who he would theoretically replace in the NHL lineup could be role-dependent, though, because Jugnauth’s ability at the defensive end of the ice is always a question mark.
Jugnauth may have been the most impressive player at the prospect showcase over the weekend. He’s just so poised with the puck.
Cup of coffee candidates
Ville Ottavainen, 24, has almost aged out of this conversation. Once viewed as the top defensive prospect for Seattle, the 6-foot-5, 216-pound Finn has yet to dominate to the point of demanding an NHL spot and has perhaps been passed up by a couple of younger players. If he doesn’t earn and keep an NHL position this season, he could fall into that “career AHLer” role.
Nikke Kokko, 22, has already appeared in four NHL games over the last two seasons, which is way ahead of schedule for a developing goalie. He does figure to be No. 3 on the depth chart for Seattle, so an injury in the crease (or even a trade—remember, Philipp Grubauer is entering the last year of his contract), and Kokko could end up playing quite a few games.
Ty Nelson, 22, is in the Jugnauth territory as another young blueliner who has played a big role in Coachella. We still think Jugnauth is a more likely first call-up on the back end, though it was Nelson—not Jugnauth or Firkus or Nyman or Mølgaard—who wore the captain’s ‘C’ in Abbotsford.
Nathan Villenueve, 20, is the type of player Lambert would love to have playing down his lineup if the need arises. He definitely needs AHL seasoning, but he reminded us in Abbotsford of his gritty approach to the game, dropping the gloves just five minutes into the first game.
Jake O’Brien, 19, is destined to start the season in Coachella Valley, now that the rules have changed to make him eligible for the AHL despite his age. He needs time to grow accustomed to the speed and physicality of pro hockey, but if he shows he can handle it, he may be able to inject some offensive playmaking into the Kraken lineup at some point this season.
Chase Reid, 18, is now at Michigan State University after playing last season for the Soo Greyhounds of the OHL. Widely viewed as the top prospect in Seattle’s system, it would not shock me to see Reid get an end-of-season call-up after his NCAA campaign ends.
That’s a lot of young players who could factor into the Seattle lineup this season. Any others you expect to see donning a Kraken jersey in 2026-27?
Darren Brown
Darren Brown is the Chief Content Officer at soundofhockey.com and the host of the Sound Of Hockey Podcast. He is a member of the PHWA and is also usually SOH’s Twitter intern (but please pretend you don’t know that). Follow him @DarrenFunBrown and @sound_hockey or email darren@soundofhockey.com.
With Kraken rookie camp starting today, we’re winding down our summer Seattle Kraken prospects series here at Sound Of Hockey. But not before we get you gameplay video, data, and analysis of defenseman Ola Palme, a 2026 sixth-rounder playing in Sweden this coming season, and Clarke Caswell, the 2024 fifth-round pick and NCAA national champion.
If you like these breakdowns, we have many more for you. You can find a list of all of the Film Rooms we’ve done to date at the bottom of the post. I suspect we’ll also try to squeeze a few more in at some point, since we have not gotten to the bottom of the Kraken prospect pool yet.
But we’re bridging into “Down on the Farm” season now. In fact, I think it’s time for our first Sound Of Hockey Prospect of the Week. Keep scrolling to find out more about the past week’s top performer.
Any suggestions or questions for future posts? Please let us know below or on social media at @deepseahockey or @sound_hockey.
Ola Palme | Defenseman | Växjö Lakers (SHL)
Left shot | 18 years old | 6-foot-2 | 201 lbs | 2026 Seattle Kraken sixth-round pick (unsigned)
Summary
Palme is a mobile, intelligent two-way defenseman who offers a rock-solid puck-moving presence from the backend. He shows strength in his stride, is heavy on the puck, and stays composed under pressure. He can break a forecheck with proficient passing and the ability to activate. Offensively, he is not much of an in-zone point threat at this stage, but is savvy with pinches and other possession-preserving plays. Defensively, he uses his size, reach, stick, and physicality effectively, though his reads and consistency in his own zone remain works in progress. His skating stride may not be the most technically proficient, but it is powerful and effective in gameplay situations against his age group.
Game video
Palme is the left-shot defenseman wearing No. 9 in yellow.
Strengths
Strong puck-moving ability, with poise under pressure and confidence executing breakouts.
Good transition passer who can make accurate outlet passes, cross-ice feeds, and creative plays through layers.
Quality hockey sense and vision, especially when activating offensively from the blue line.
Effective offensive instincts; willing to join rushes, pinch, and create odd-man situations.
Solid size (6-foot-2, approximately 200 pounds), with good reach and an evolving physical presence.
Competitive defender who engages physically along the boards and around the net.
Reliable gap control at his best; capable of stepping up early and disrupting entries.
Good stick detail and ability to pressure opponents defensively.
Balanced skating base, with solid straight-line speed, crossover ability, and functional mobility.
Powerful in his puck possession; difficult to knock off the puck or his stride.
Calm, composed style; generally avoids major mistakes and plays within himself.
Shows potential as a versatile support defenseman with two-way utility.
Experience playing both the power play and penalty kill at high levels of competition.
Five games of SHL experience in his pre-draft season, and made the big club again out of camp to begin the 2026-27 season.
Weaknesses
Skating, while sturdy and effective, lacks high-end explosiveness, first-step quickness, and lateral mobility.
Backward skating and edgework need refinement.
Defensive reads can be inconsistent; occasionally reacts late rather than anticipating plays.
Can struggle with rush defense, giving attackers too much space or misjudging gaps, particularly against speed.
Decision-making under pressure can be uneven, leading to rushed plays or turnovers.
Retrieval decisions need refinement; sometimes waits too long or chooses poor escape routes. He will need to increase his processing speed to succeed in the North American game.
Defensive-zone awareness and assignment discipline require continued development.
Offensive skill set is effective but lacks a difference-making skill or dynamic creativity.
Question remains whether his skill set is impactful enough to translate beyond a second-tier role.
Notes
Palme’s strength, size, and effective skating allow for an easy projection to a second-tier professional league like the SHL or AHL. Whether he can take the next step to the NHL depends on his ability to hone his in-zone work on both ends. If he hits, he’s a bottom-four NHL defender who can contribute through puck movement, transition play, and responsible defensive minutes.
Palme’s significant high-level experience and physical maturity benefited him at rookie camp, where he looked to be ahead of many of his contemporaries despite being a sixth-round pick. If he can continue developing apace with his cohort, there could be a real player here. I like his power frame and puck-moving skills. The developmental risk is that Palme has already neared his ceiling and will level out while others continue to ascend.
Left shot | 20 years old | 6-foot | 185 lbs | 2024 Seattle Kraken fifth-round pick (unsigned)
Summary
Caswell is a highly intelligent forward who impacts games through excellent anticipation, playmaking, and defensive awareness. He has spent much of his junior and college career as an effective two-way center, though he has also created offense from the wing in certain lineups. He excels as a puck distributor and support player who finds creative solutions under pressure. The result was high-end assist production as a junior player. Flashes of playmaking showed through at the University of Denver this past season, too, though it was certainly less consistent on a game-to-game basis.
Caswell can also impact the game as a forechecker, though he will not be able to trade on raw speed or physicality moving forward. While his ability to win positioning, create turnovers, and make plays through traffic gives him value in all three zones, questions about a lack of raw physical traits (height, weight, strength, speed) will stick with him unless he can show his wiry frame and less-physical play style can translate at the highest levels.
Game video
Caswell is the left-shot forward wearing No. 25 in red.
Strengths
Excellent hockey intelligence; he consistently anticipates plays and finds efficient solutions with and without the puck.
Very good playmaking instincts, with the ability to distribute from multiple situations, including off the rush, on the cycle, and through contact.
Creative passer capable of making difficult feeds with both the forehand and backhand.
Solid and committed forechecking ability, using timing, angles, and anticipation to disrupt opposing breakouts.
Brings three-zone impact despite physical limitations; he is responsible and smart defensively.
Strong positional awareness and ability to create turnovers through smart routes and body positioning.
Competes well physically despite frequent size disadvantages, often winning puck battles through leverage and intelligence.
Effective supporting player who enhances linemates through timing, puck movement, and off-puck positioning.
Shows clutch ability, producing important goals and assists in high-pressure situations.
Good at orchestrating offense in power-play situations.
Seized the opportunity to elevate to NCAA competition for his age-19 season and earned a prominent role for Coach David Carle and the University of Denver Pioneers immediately.
Weaknesses
Lacks standout physical traits (height, strength, speed) that could be a separator at the highest levels.
While effective in contested situations, a lack of physical strength and bulk could limit him at higher levels.
Settled in as more of a complementary and intermittent producer at the NCAA level; it remains to be seen if he can ascend to a primary scoring role at the college level like he did in junior.
Offensive impact was inconsistent; some games feature limited involvement despite strong underlying play.
Needs to continue to improve his ability to consistently turn strong forechecking and puck-recovery plays into scoring chances.
Puck-possession skills are adequate, but he lacks the ability to dynamically possess and create offense from nothing; more of a structure-based offensive creator.
Lacks dynamic offensive skills aside from his hockey sense and, at times, his passing.
Shot is not a difference-maker in itself; typically scores when he has worked the play into an easier chance.
Needs more consistent physical engagement and puck-driving impact.
Finesse, rangy profile is always a challenging projection to the NHL; he will likely need to beat the odds to ascend to the NHL level by either upping his production or improving his physical traits.
Notes
Caswell has quality hockey sense but a frame and physical profile that clouds his future projection. (In this regard, he may be vaguely similar to Jagger Firkus. He’s more of a playmaker than the elder Firkus, but lacks the finishing skill.) He will need things to break right to reach an NHL ceiling, but if he does, he has a middle-six projection. Despite his youth and inexperience, he earned the trust of Coach Carle quickly in his freshman season. This bodes well for his future.
With European leagues in full swing, we have a few prospects with multiple games under their belts already. The top performer has been KHL goalie Semyon Vyazovoi. He is 2-0 in two starts with a .970 save percentage and one shutout. Hard to top that. Vyazovoi is your Sound of Hockey Prospect of the Week.
For his part, Viktor Fyodorov scored the system’s first regular-season goal in Torpedo Nizhny Novgorod’s Sep. 11 KHL game against Lada Togliatti.
Curtis Isacke
Curtis is a Sound Of Hockey contributor and member of the Kraken press corps. Curtis is an attorney by day, and he has read the NHL collective bargaining agreement and bylaws so you don’t have to. He can be found analyzing the Kraken, NHL Draft, and other hockey topics on Twitter and Bluesky @deepseahockey.
As of Friday, Sept. 11, the Seattle Kraken will officially be back on the ice preparing for the 2025-26 season. On-ice activities begin with a Rookie Camp for players not yet established at the NHL level. This year’s group includes all Kraken prospects except for a couple AHL veterans and those scheduled to play college hockey or overseas.
With activity about to ramp up, there’s no better time to submit our second-annualSound Of Hockey Seattle Kraken prospect ranking. Without discussing in advance, John Barr and I provided our own personal preseason prospect rankings, and then we combined them to create the definitive Sound Of Hockey ranking. At the end of this post, we’ll debate how our rankings turned out, as well as a couple of bigger-picture topics.
Sound Of Hockey Seattle Kraken prospect ranking
Our ranking is an average of subjective assessments from John Barr and me. Ties are broken by ranking the player with the higher “high” rank first. We proceeded accordingly through the top 25 and ties. Then, we also ranked any player that received a top-25 vote from either of us. This process resulted in a ranked list of 29 top prospects. We added the next-highest-ranked player (Jakub Fibigr) because “top 30” sounds better than “top 29.”
Here is a breakout of each writer’s lists:
Professional analyst Kraken prospect rankings
Interested in more rankings? Several professional scouting services and analysts have put out Seattle Kraken prospect pool rankings this summer following the 2026 NHL Draft:
McKeen’s and Wheeler have the Kraken as their seventh-best prospect pool overall. Ellis has the Kraken with his No. 13 overall pool—down from No. 7 last year. Pronman evaluates each team’s total pool of players aged 22 or younger, whether or not the players are “prospects.” He has the Kraken as possessing the sixth-best collection of such players.
Kraken prospect roundtable discussion
Share a little insight on your methodology for the rankings:
John: My methodology isn’t particularly formulaic. Generally, I tried to rank players based on the impact I think they’ll ultimately have at the NHL level. For example, I think Nikke Kokko (No. 16 on the list) is likely to become a regular NHL player, but I don’t think his upside is as high as someone like Casey Mutryn (No. 8). Similarly, Jacob Melanson (No. 13) has a realistic path to spending an entire season on the Kraken roster in 2026-27, but I don’t see him having the kind of impact Jagger Firkus (No. 5) could have if he reaches his ceiling.
Curtis: In terms of list eligibility, I used the same thresholds I used when creating the data-only prospect ranking. For skaters: 23 years old or younger as of Sept. 1, 2026, and fewer than 50 NHL games. For goalies: 24 years old or younger as of the same date, and fewer than 30 NHL games.
This approach resulted in one exclusion from my list of a player who figured onto John’s: Ville Ottavainen. Ottavainen just missed my list criteria (he turned 24 in August), and I do still believe there is a possible future with him as a No. 6 or fringe NHL defenseman for years. John was right to rank him, and Ottavainen probably should have figured more prominently on our combined list as a result.
When ordering the prospects, I tried to formulate tiers based on projected NHL contributions if the player hits a realistic NHL upside—an outcome I currently believe could happen even while recognizing most players won’t hit these ceilings. When two players are next to each other on the list, I tend to ask myself: If I could only have one in the system, which one would I choose?
If Berkly Catton were still eligible for your list, where would he rank? How about Shane Wright?
John: I’d probably have Catton second behind Chase Reid. His development last season was really encouraging, and there were plenty of moments where he showed the kind of high-end skill that can make a difference at the NHL level.
Wright is a difficult one, but I’d likely put him between Catton and Jake O’Brien. We already know Wright can play and produce in the NHL when he’s at his best. O’Brien may ultimately end up higher, but there’s still some uncertainty because we haven’t seen him make the jump to the NHL yet.
Curtis: I’m pretty much of the same mind. Catton may be a bit undervalued because he was challenged with a full-time NHL role as a 19-year-old. I’d slot him above O’Brien still. Reid stays at No. 1 over Catton only because I’m very high on the young blueliner’s combination of tools. I’d likely put Wright after Catton for the same reasons you mentioned but would consider moving him below O’Brien just because the younger forward may bring more pure offensive skill.
Where would Berkly Catton rank if he were still considered a prospect?
Which prospect has the most to prove this coming season?
John: I think this is a huge season for Jani Nyman. During his NHL stint last season, he struggled to keep pace and looked a bit overmatched. To his credit, he rediscovered his game in the AHL, but now he needs to show he can bring that success to the NHL level. Hopefully, the experience he gained during those NHL games helped him identify exactly where he needs to improve to become an everyday NHL player.
Curtis: I think you’re right about Nyman, John. Jagger Firkus is another “older” prospect whose time has come to either (a) truly dominate and drive offense at the AHL level (think 80+ points) or (b) prove he can hang at the NHL level when given the opportunity. A season where Firkus or Nyman treads water in the AHL would really put a dent in their profiles.
Which ranking on the other person’s list was the biggest surprise?
John: There weren’t many rankings that caught me off guard, but I did like your higher placement of Luken “Hawke” Huff. He’s an overage fifth-round pick who took a pretty unconventional road to get here, yet he keeps finding ways to succeed. After talking with him at development camp, what stood out most was how excited he is to be playing hockey. It may sound simple, but that kind of passion matters. He comes across as someone who loves the game, embraces the work, and is still motivated to get better every day.
Curtis: I love your confidence and aggressiveness on Tyson Jugnauth. As you and our readers know, I’ve long been a fan of the skill he can bring to the blue line, and, unlike some, I’m not afraid of smaller defensemen. Even so, I was surprised to see him at No. 3 on your list. Based on pure skill level, you could be right.
Did any player from prior drafts really pop last season and jump up your rankings?
Curtis: I wrote about it last week in Friday Film Room, but I just really liked watching Ty Nelson play hockey at the AHL level over the back half of the 2025-26 season. He doesn’t have the height or dynamic traits, but he does have a mind for the game, relentless work habits, and bulldog physicality. He took every role the coaching staff threw at him and rarely looked out of place. He rose from No. 17 on my list last year to No. 11 on my list this year. I’m confident there’s an (admittedly unconventional) NHL future there.
John: We’ve been tracking Jugnauth’s progression for a while, but it’s still pretty wild to have a fourth-round pick from 2022 sitting third in the Kraken prospect rankings. Yet here we are. In the viewings I had last season, he looked incredibly comfortable and confident with the puck. I’ve even caught a few of his informal skates at Kraken Community Iceplex over the past week, and even surrounded by NHL players, he stood out.
The other player who made a significant jump in my rankings was Loke Krantz. He’s only No. 22 on my list, but his development trajectory has already exceeded what you’d normally expect from a seventh-round pick.
Loke Krantz has surpassed expectations since being selected in the seventh round of 2025 NHL Draft.
Which Kraken prospect is most overlooked by the general prospect community?
Curtis: I’ll mention Viktor Fyodorov as a player I really enjoyed watching over the summer. That said, as a top-100 pick in the most recent draft, I’m not sure he’s a perfect fit for the “overlooked” category.
Two players with Coachella Valley may fit the bill a bit better. I thought Kaden Hammell (No. 24 on my list) had a solid rookie AHL season. The 2023 fifth-round defenseman came into the season layered behind many higher-drafted blueliners, including Nelson and Ottavainen, as well as fellow rookies Caden Price and Lukas Dragicevic. Yet, his defensive-zone physicality and transition skating game have translated as well or better than Price or Dragicevic so far.
I’ll also mention J.R. Avon (ineligible for my list) as a player who brings skating, forechecking, and enough skill in his hands to see NHL games at some point in the near future. He’s a dark horse.
John: There are certainly some prospect rankings out there that I disagree with, but I don’t know if there’s one specific player I’d call overlooked. Jakub Fibigr is someone who has shown meaningful progression every season since being drafted, but he still has a long way to go before I’d consider him underrated by the broader prospect community.
That said, I’ll use this opportunity to highlight Will Reynolds, the Kraken’s third-round defenseman from the 2025 draft class. Reynolds is young for his draft year and took an encouraging step forward in his development last season. I don’t put too much stock into prospect camp performances, but he stood out to me during development camp in July. There’s a lot of upside there that I think many of us may be underestimating.
Any area that was particularly challenging when making your rankings this year?
John: As I mentioned last year, the entire process is a challenge. There is always a handful of long-shot prospects who could end up surprising everyone, but they still need to be ranked somewhere. Unfortunately, that means someone has to land in the bottom 10.
I also struggled with where to place Barrett Hall and Ben McDonald. Outside of the July development camps, I simply haven’t had enough opportunities to watch either player, so I was forced to lean more heavily on their NCAA production and scouting reports than I’d prefer when forming my opinions.
Curtis: Ranking the goalies is a challenge for me. I don’t have access to Semyon Vyazovoi’s KHL games, and, even when I can see players on the ice, I’ll admit that I’m less confident in “evaluating” them when compared with skaters. Accordingly, I tend to fall back on numbers a bit more.
Vyazovoi and Kim Saarinen posted sterling results in their leagues—particularly when adjusting for their ages. For his part, Kokko played in the most challenging league last season (the AHL), as one of the youngest goalies in that league, and likely with the least defensive help of Seattle’s “big three” goalie prospects. Kokko’s raw results weren’t “good,” but he may have done a hair better than I had expected when adjusting for the difficulty of the context.
Even so, none of the big three figure prominently on league-wide lists of goaltending prospects. All of this leaves me scratching my head. If pressed into a take, I’d say this: I think they’re all good and underrated.
* * *
Have any thoughts on Kraken prospects or any of the roundtable topics above? What did we get wrong? Let us have it in the comments below or X/Twitter or Blue Sky.
With Kraken rookie camp starting next week, we’re nearing the end of our summer Seattle Kraken prospects series here at Sound Of Hockey. “Down on the Farm” posts with actual game updates are on the horizon. (Kim Saarinen already made his first Liiga start.)
Today, we’ll get you gameplay video, data, and analysis of forward William Tomko, a 2026 seventh-rounder heading to college this coming season, and Ty Nelson, the 2022 third-round pick and No. 1 defenseman for the Coachella Valley Firebirds.
If you like these breakdowns, continue to check in. We should have at least one more of these posts next week, analyzing a 2026 Kraken draft pick (there’s only one left we haven’t covered) and another organization prospect.
Any suggestions or questions for future posts? Please let us know below or on social media at @deepseahockey or @sound_hockey.
Will Tomko | Forward | Ohio State Univ. (NCAA)
Right shot | 19 years old | 6-foot | 190 lbs | 2026 Seattle Kraken seventh-round pick (unsigned)
Summary
William Tomko is a high-motor, two-way forward who combines strong skating mechanics, physical strength and compete, and flashes of creative playmaking. He excels in transition, using linear speed and some deceptive puck movements to attack space and create chances. He has a powerful, boxy frame that he uses well on straight-line attacks; he is difficult to take off his path or the puck. He’s a competitive forechecker, committed defensively, and does not shy away from the physical game. There is an impressive set of skills here, but it is fair to wonder if his offensive traits have enough juice to translate at higher levels, where he will find bigger and more competitive opponents.
Game video
Tomko is the right-shot forward wearing No. 28 in white.
Strengths
Elite compete level and motor; consistently impacts games through effort, pace, and determination.
Strong skating foundation with powerful strides, good lower-body mechanics, and acceleration; better on linear attacks but also shows some lateral agility.
Showed significant transition skill; uses delays, weight shifts, crossovers, and deception to beat defenders.
Creative playmaker with flashes of high-quality vision, especially on seam passes, cross-slot feeds, and rush chances.
Strong puck protection skills; defends the puck from checks and navigates traffic effectively.
Physical and aggressive style; wins battles, delivers impactful hits, and disrupts opponents.
Reliable defensive habits; effective backchecker, forechecker, penalty killer, and trusted in defensive situations.
Good off-puck awareness; scans well, creates pressure, and understands positioning.
Versatile profile with potential to fill multiple roles, including checking, penalty kill, and secondary scoring duties.
Weaknesses
Lacks a true elite offensive tool that separates him from other bubble professional prospects.
Shot has been effective but has average overall traits projecting to the next level; in junior, he did not consistently threaten as a goal scorer.
Offensive production and playmaking were intermittent; his creative flashes were not always sustained shift to shift and game to game.
Passing can become predictable or overly simple at times, particularly under pressure.
Hockey sense is strong, but decision-making was inconsistent at times in the games I reviewed.
Needs to leverage his skills and attack the middle of the ice more consistently.
While he showed a physical profile overall, he needs to continue to develop his ability to maintain inside positioning and sustain effectiveness through contact.
Lack of above-average stature (6-foot), skating speed, and offensive hockey sense may limit his ability to produce against bigger, faster professional competition and raises questions about his ceiling.
Notes
Tomko was an older draft re-entry—almost two years older than the youngest eligible for the 2026 NHL Draft. His production and physical play are impressive, but they need to be taken in the context of his age advantage over other skilled players in the USHL. This coming season, he will move up to the NCAA ranks, playing at Ohio State University alongside fellow Kraken prospect Jakub Fibigr. This college hockey move will afford him a relatively long development runway and playing time despite his overage status. I like the tools and profile more than your typical seventh-round pick and can easily imagine at least an AHL professional future for the player.
Ty Nelson | Defenseman | Coachella Valley Firebirds (AHL)
Right shot | 22 years old | 5-foot-10 | 198 lbs | 2022 Seattle Kraken third-round pick (signed)
Summary
Ty Nelson is an aggressive, high-motor defenseman who impacts the game with his physicality, relentless engagement, and sound hockey instincts. He is efficient on retrievals and thrives when transitioning from defense to offense, using quick decisions and strong instincts to activate into the rush and create chances. Nelson lacks height (5-foot-10) and length but is very bulky and physically well-developed, making it difficult to play through him. His skating is solid, but his agility is somewhat limited by his box-like frame.
Offensively, he lacks superlative tools but has a heavy shot and generates chances with anticipation, confidence, and an attacking mindset. Defensively, adequate movement skills, a low center of gravity, and competitiveness allow him to defend aggressively against attackers. Though he has reined it in a bit, he still has a risk-taking style that creates upside but also leads to occasional coverage lapses and execution issues.
Game video
Nelson is the right-shot defenseman wearing No. 24 in white.
Strengths
Elite compete level and nonstop motor; he is consistently involved in the play, looking to shut down attacks or create offensive advantages.
Does well in turnover scenarios with strong offensive instincts and immediate activation.
Often shows at least average linear skating, four-way mobility, and quick feet.
Aggressive gap control, strong rush defense habits, and solid production, particularly given his length disadvantage.
Physical defender who embraces contact despite being undersized.
Low center of gravity and stocky build help him win battles below the dots.
Proactive stick work, including poke checks, stick lifts, and lane disruption.
Willingness to block shots and sacrifice his body defensively.
Confident puck mover with creativity and ambition in transition, even if he has found it a bit more difficult to produce end-to-end plays as a professional.
Capable of generating offense through decision-making rather than elite skill.
Strong anticipation when joining rushes and finding offensive opportunities.
Trusted and at least adequate in all manpower, zone-start, and game-clock situations.
Glue player and team leader with an infectious, positive personality on the one hand, and a bulldog play style on the other.
Weaknesses
Though his defensive instincts and off-puck play have continued to develop, he can still become too puck-focused, leading to missed off-puck defensive threats.
Aggressive style can create defensive chaos and coverage breakdowns.
Limited size (5-foot-10) and reach create challenges against larger attackers along the wall.
Limited range impacts his ability to defend wide attacks and passing lanes; there are also times he has looked limited in his agility skating to reach taller, faster professional players when attacked. This will be essential to his NHL development.
Lacks elite offensive tools typically associated with offensive defensemen.
Can struggle sealing the wall or containing stronger puck carriers.
Decision-making with the puck can become overambitious, resulting in turnovers.
Offensive activations can be inconsistent and sometimes lack control.
Some north-south puck movement relies on uncontrolled clears or flip-outs.
Despite power-play time, his offensive production has not translated from junior hockey to the AHL, and it is unlikely to be an above-average asset for him in the future.
Notes
Ty Nelson is a unique player given his stature, but he developed his pro-style game and brought his NHL projection into focus last season. He has a high floor defensively built on engagement, physicality, and solid instincts. He can also help the team get into its game offensively with solid retrieval, breakout, and transition work, even if he doesn’t project to impact the game offensively in the NHL like he did as a junior player. He clearly earned the trust of the coaching staff. Throughout the season and into the playoffs, he took late-and-close defensive-zone assignments as a No. 1 defenseman for the Coachella Valley Firebirds.
I’ve become a believer that Nelson has an NHL future. He may not have the tools to provide an “impact” in any singular area or stack up points, but he projects as a potential bottom-pair NHL defenseman with a unique, disruptive style that brings added value to a team off the ice.
Curtis is a Sound Of Hockey contributor and member of the Kraken press corps. Curtis is an attorney by day, and he has read the NHL collective bargaining agreement and bylaws so you don’t have to. He can be found analyzing the Kraken, NHL Draft, and other hockey topics on Twitter and Bluesky @deepseahockey.
It is well known that the team scoring first has an advantage. Over the past two regular seasons, 2024-25 and 2025-26, teams that scored first won 66.5 percent of games.
That is the top-line number, but I wanted to go one level deeper. Does team strength, venue, or the timing of the first goal change that advantage? The short answer is yes: all three influence the winning percentage.
Most statistics below cover the previous two regular seasons unless otherwise noted. I will start with league-wide trends and finish with how the Seattle Kraken perform when scoring first. Let’s get into it.
Favorite or underdog?
Three buckets were created: Favorite, Toss-Up, and Underdog. Here is how each bucket was defined:
Favorite: Points percentage was at least .050 higher than the opponent.
Toss-Up: The difference in points percentage between the teams was less than .050.
Underdog: Points percentage was at least .050 lower than the opponent.
Over an 82-game season, a .050 difference in points percentage is equivalent to 8.2 standings points.
Overall, NHL teams that score first win 66.5 percent of games. Favorites, however, win 77.6 percent of games after scoring first. Toss-Up games closely match the overall win percentage, at 66.4 percent compared with 66.5 percent. That means Underdogs are pulling down the overall percentage. They still benefit from scoring first, but their win rate is only 2.9 percentage points above a coin flip.
The second chart looks at teams that scored first but later allowed the opponent to tie the game. The most interesting number to me is the 49.9 percent win rate for the Toss-Up bucket. That suggests the advantage of scoring first is essentially erased once a Toss-Up game is tied. Favorites still push through at a higher rate, while Underdogs struggle once their initial advantage disappears.
Home-ice advantage
A while back, I looked at whether home-ice advantage really exists in the NHL. In that analysis, home teams enjoyed a 5.5 percent boost in standings points compared with their performance on the road. A similar benefit appears when looking at teams that score first. Teams that score first at home win 6.6 percentage points more often than teams that score first on the road.
The same pattern holds after an equalizer. Home teams that score first and later allow the opponent to tie still win 5.1 percentage points more often than road teams in the same situation.
Now let’s combine home and road games with the Favorite, Toss-Up, and Underdog buckets.
The home-ice advantage is clear in every bucket. One interesting result is that Away Underdogs that score first still lose more often than they win. Another takeaway from both Home-versus-Away charts is that Home teams score first more often than Away teams. Even when Away teams score first, their win percentage is lower than that of Home teams scoring first.
When the first goal is scored
Now let’s look at when the first goal is scored and how that impacts the winning percentage.
The trend is clear: the later the first goal is scored, the more likely that team is to win. If a goal is scored in the opening minute, the opponent has 59 minutes to respond.
Keep in mind that the sample size also decreases significantly in each period. The overtime win percentage is 100 percent because the first overtime goal ends the game.
Period Splits with matchup role
The third-period sample sizes get small, but the trend is obvious in the first two periods. So maybe the trick to winning is to score first, but wait a while to do so?
First goal by five-minute increments
Let’s break each period down further into five-minute increments.
There is a lot going on in this chart, so the key is to look at each time bucket independently. The chart shows how many first goals were scored in each bucket. It also shows how often that team won, represented by the blue line, and how often the game was later tied, represented by the red line.
There were too few first goals in the third period to break them into five-minute increments. Because of that, all first goals after 40 minutes were grouped together.
There are several interesting trends. The blue line, representing teams that scored first and won, remains relatively flat until after the 25-minute mark. The red line, representing games that were later tied, also begins declining after 25 minutes. In other words, after the five-minute mark of the second period, the game result becomes harder to change based on which team scored first.
The blue and red lines cross in the 10-to-15-minute bucket. Before the 10-minute mark, games were tied again more often than the team scoring first ultimately won. The overall takeaway is that early first goals are less predictive of the final outcome than late first goals.
First goal vs making the playoffs
Scoring first improves a team’s chances of winning an individual game. Based on that, I wanted to see whether scoring first more frequently also translated into making the playoffs. For this section, we are looking only at data from the 2025-26 season.
Teams in bold on the left made the playoffs. The chart is sorted by the number of times each team scored first. I expected to see playoff teams bunched near the top, but they are spread fairly evenly throughout the chart.
Three teams won fewer than 50 percent of their games when scoring first: the Vancouver Canucks, Toronto Maple Leafs, and Chicago Blackhawks. All three finished in the bottom five of the league. Surprisingly, Chicago tied for eighth in the NHL by scoring first in 45 games.
This shows that simply scoring the first goal is not enough. What matters most is converting that early advantage into wins.
Where the Kraken rank
As you may have noticed in the previous section, the Kraken scored first in 41 games during the 2025-26 season. That is exactly half their games and tied for 16th in the NHL. It is a substantial improvement from 2024-25, when Seattle scored first 35 times and ranked 29th in the league.
Using the .050 winning-percentage difference for the three matchup buckets, the Kraken rarely qualified as a Favorite. Over the past two seasons, Seattle was a Favorite only 11 times and scored first in seven of those games. In the four games when Seattle did not score first, they went 1-3.
When the Kraken were a Favorite or Toss-Up and scored first, they won 22 of 28 games. They struggled as an Underdog, winning only 47.9 percent of the time after scoring first. Holding a lead is one area the Kraken can improve.
Kraken splits with home versus away
Seattle performed markedly better when scoring first at home than on the road. The Kraken were a few percentage points below the league-wide home win rate of 69.6 percent, while their road win rate was well below the 63.0 percent league average.
The Kraken left some points on the table here. Matching the league averages in these situations would be worth about six additional standings points. Holding leads is an area Seattle can improve, but doing so alone would not be enough to push them into playoff contention.
Kraken splits with matchup role
The sample sizes get smaller here, but the trend follows the rest of the league. Seattle is above average in win percentage during Favorite and Toss-Up games, while its overall percentage is dragged down by away games when the Kraken are Underdogs. This feels similar to how the Kraken struggled in the 2024-25 season during the second game of back-to-backs, when they went 0-12.
Does the first goal matter?
Overall, scoring first provides an advantage, but it is not a substitute for playing a full 60 minutes. The 2025-26 data did not show a clear relationship between how frequently a team scored first and whether it made the playoffs.
The 2026 Stanley Cup Final featured the Carolina Hurricanes and Vegas Golden Knights. Carolina ranked fourth in the league by scoring first in 49 games. The three teams ahead of Carolina were tied with 50 games. Vegas ranked 28th, scoring first only 34 times. Two very different paths to the Final.
I think the Kraken will be better than the general consensus expects this season. Even so, they will likely enter plenty of games as Underdogs. The good news is that falling behind is not necessarily decisive. If Seattle can tie the score, the game essentially resets to a 50-50 proposition.
If you have any comments or questions, please leave them below.
Blaiz Grubic
Blaiz Grubic is a contributor at Sound Of Hockey. A passionate hockey fan and player for over 30 years, Blaiz grew up in the Pacific Northwest and is an alumni of Washington State University (Go Cougs!). When he’s not playing, watching, or writing about hockey, he enjoys quality time with his wife and daughter or getting out on a golf course for a quick round. Follow @blaizg on BlueSky or X.
Welcome to our fourth annual analysis of all NHL-affiliated prospects and each organization’s prospect pipeline. September is here. Rookie camps and tournaments are right around the corner with training camps following soon thereafter. There is no better time to get up to speed on the players who will soon take center stage across the league.
This is not a traditional scouting assessment of prospects. Instead, we built our watchlist using quantifiable data only. Think of it as a supplement to the scouting and analytical work on prospects being published by other sources like Elite Prospects. It can be revealing in its areas of agreement or disagreement with the work of traditional scouting services.
What does our data-only analysis involve? As I have done in years past when looking at NHL-affiliated prospects (or NHL Draft prospects), I have organized this player list by “Data Score”—a rough metric we came up with here at Sound Of Hockey. Data Score begins with the bedrock of an NHL equivalency (“NHLe”). NHLe is a method to compare the scoring proficiency of players in the various professional and junior leagues across the globe. I used Thibaud Chatel’s model, which is the most up-to-date public research in the area. Check out Chatel’s Substack for an in-depth discussion of NHLe. For this project, I used Chatel’s newest model, which has been updated to account for 2025-26 season data.
From there, I make adjustments based on factors known to be linked to prospect success rates: (1) position, (2) height, and (3) age. I then made a modest upward adjustment to the NHLe for low-scoring players playing in high-level professional leagues. This is based on public research by Chace McCallum that was taken down when he started working for an NHL team. Finally, I also adjusted the underlying point-rate totals used in the process to give less weight to assists relative to goals. This is based on public research suggesting goal scoring is more predictive of future point production than assist totals, even primary assists.
For simplicity of presentation, only one team-season of data is shown in the list below for each player. It should be the highest level reached where the player played at least ten games. That said, if a player split their season between multiple teams and/or leagues, all of that scoring information is accounted for in the player’s Data Score.
NHL-affiliated prospects list eligibility
To be eligible for this list, the player (1) must be a skater on the roster or reserve list of an NHL team, (2) must be younger than 24 years old as of Sep. 1, 2026, and (3) cannot have played more than 50 NHL games. This approach yielded 970 skaters. The full list will be made available to Sound Of Hockey Patreon members shortly.
Top 300 NHL-Affiliated Prospects
Age bias?
Big picture, this approach prioritizes players closer to contributing at the NHL level than most scouting-based lists. You could fairly argue that the data fails to capture the likely upside and potential star power of younger prospects like Chase Reid (#40) or Caleb Malhotra (#50).
On the other hand, you could argue that scouting lists too often err on the side of prioritizing the potential upside of younger players—or display recency bias toward recently scouted NHL Draft prospects—at the expense of the more probable contributions of older prospects. Eventually, this will be a worthy topic for side-by-side comparison.
For today’s purposes, however, it’s certainly notable that the highest-ranked true junior player on this list is Jake O’Brien at No. 22 overall. You won’t find many prospect rankings like that elsewhere.
A blind spot for defensive defensemen?
The placement of several defensemen is certainly “unique” as well. Tomas Galvas (#25) is an undersized European blueliner who went undrafted twice before finally being selected by the Penguins in the 2026 draft. He has put up points in international competitions and in the Czech pro league, but clearly the NHL does not view him as a well-rounded or sure-fire prospect.
At the other extreme, well-regarded defensive specialists from the 2026 draft like Alberts Smits (#149) and Malte Gustafsson (unranked) fall much lower. Even if there are compelling reasons to favor a model built on the bedrock of scoring data, it is certainly true that such a model will “miss” at least some defensemen who trade on shutdown defense.
Tracking the top players
Revisiting the top of last year’s list, Ivan Demidov (2025 #1) has since graduated after posting 62 points in his rookie NHL season. Michael Misa (2025 #3) nearly graduated after playing 45 NHL games; he remained near the top of this year’s list at No. 6 overall. In contrast, Bradly Nadeau (2025 #2) found himself stuck in the AHL in a deep Carolina organization. Despite posting another excellent scoring season there, he slipped to No. 16 on this year’s list, with the passage of a year putting a dent in his Data Score.
This year’s top skater, Porter Martone, rose from No. 7 on last year’s list. Ilya Protas (#2) also moved up gradually from No. 6 on the 2025 list. The biggest jump at the top of the board came from Anton Frondell (#3), who surged from No. 95 last season following a strong season split between the SHL and the NHL.
Developmental leagues
Among the top 100 prospects, 16 played at least 10 games in the NHL during the 2025-26 season (but were still eligible for this exercise). Fourteen played in the AHL. Beyond those professional players, the NCAA and the OHL were tied for the most players represented, with 19 apiece. 16 played in the WHL, 13 played in the USHL, and five played in the QMJHL. Rounding out the list were 10 players playing in Swedish professional leagues, seven in Russia, one in Finland, and one in Czechia.
Prospect pipelines and organizational outlook
Last season, the Calgary Flames had the most top-100 skaters, with eight. The Flames had eight again this season, but were surpassed at the top by the San Jose Sharks and Pittsburgh Penguins, each of which have nine such prospects. The Sharks are widely regarded as having a top system. The Penguins have favored strong data profiles at recent drafts and deployed a young AHL roster last season, which worked in their favor in this data-only look.
The Penguins also have the deepest system, with 16 skaters in the top 300 overall. The Anaheim Ducks have the second-most skaters in the top 300, with 15.
At the other end of the spectrum, the Colorado Avalanche, Edmonton Oilers, and Dallas Stars have zero top-100 players. The Minnesota Wild have the shallowest system, with only three top-300 skaters, followed by the Avalanche and Oilers with only four each.
Top-100 skaters are indicated in dark green and top-300 skaters in light green in the chart below.
All is not lost for the Oilers and Avalanche, of course. Both NHL teams are Stanley Cup contenders. But this provides some perspective about where they stand in the team “life cycle.” They need to “win now” before a fallow period could hit in the future.
The chart below visualizes this “life cycle” by comparing current NHL success (measured by 2025-26 standings points) against the organization’s prospect pool (measured by the total number of top-100 players in Data Score).
With more weight given to high-end players than organizational depth, here is how we would grade the 32 prospect pools by “Data Score”:
* * *
Did we miss a player? Do you have any questions? Reach out to us in the comments below or on Twitter/X @deepseahockey or @sound_hockey or on BlueSky at @deepseahockey or @soundofhockey.com.
Header photo of Daxon Rudolph taken by Evan Morud, courtesy Everett Silvertips.
Curtis Isacke
Curtis is a Sound Of Hockey contributor and member of the Kraken press corps. Curtis is an attorney by day, and he has read the NHL collective bargaining agreement and bylaws so you don’t have to. He can be found analyzing the Kraken, NHL Draft, and other hockey topics on Twitter and Bluesky @deepseahockey.
After digging into Lane Lambert’s impact on Kraken goal scoring in my last piece, I couldn’t shake the feeling that there was still more research to look at or areas to explore. Goal scoring tells part of the story, but it doesn’t tell us how teams are generating their chances. In this follow-up piece, I’m zooming in on shot quality: high‑danger, medium‑danger, and low‑danger attempts across Lambert’s coaching tenures, plus a look at expected goals to see whether the underlying process matches the results. If the first article raised good questions, this one aims to push a little deeper into the answers.
In that first piece, I looked at whether Lambert’s system might be suppressing Kraken goal scoring. The short version: the picture wasn’t nearly as straightforward as the raw totals suggested. Yes, Seattle’s scoring dipped in Lambert’s first season, and yes, several players saw their production slide. But when I compared his Kraken tenure to his time with the Islanders, and to the coaches who came before and after him, the results were mixed.
Lambert’s Islanders actually scored more than Barry Trotz’s and nearly as much as Patrick Roy’s, and individual player trends didn’t point to a consistent pattern either. The broader takeaway was that Seattle’s scoring struggles likely stem from a blend of roster construction, usage, and variance rather than a system that inherently throttles offense. That left one big question on the table: if the goals dried up, what was happening underneath the surface in terms of shot quality and expected goals?
Shot quality and expected goals primer
Before we get too deep into the weeds, it’s worth laying out why shot quality matters, and offering a quick primer for anyone who doesn’t spend time dabbling in the dark arts of hockey analytics. Not all shots are created equal. A wrist shot from the point with no traffic is not the same as a backdoor tap‑in rebound, and analytics try to capture that difference by categorizing attempts into high‑danger, medium‑danger, and low‑danger areas. High‑danger chances come from the slot and net‑front, where shooting percentages spike. Medium‑danger chances live in the middle of the ice, and low‑danger attempts are typically perimeter shots with a low probability of beating an NHL goalie.
Expected‑goals (xG) models take all of this into account: location, shot type, and timing relative to other events, to estimate how likely a shot was to become a goal. For this exercise, all shot‑quality and xG data comes from NaturalStatTrick.com, one of the most widely used public analytics sites in hockey. If the first article focused on what happened to Kraken scoring under Lambert, this section is about understanding how those chances were generated in the first place. To illustrate the value of high‑, medium‑, and low‑danger shots, take a look at the shooting percentages across those three categories.
Shortcomings of public models
It’s also worth acknowledging the limitations of the public shot‑quality and expected‑goals models used here. Sites like NaturalStatTrick do incredible work with the data they have, but that data is inherently limited. Public models only track a handful of events: shot attempts, their location on the ice, and timing relative to other recorded events.
What they don’t capture is often just as important: passing sequences, pre‑shot movement, traffic in front of the net, screens, odd‑man rushes, defensive breakdowns, or where the other nine skaters are positioned when the shot occurs. All of those factors meaningfully influence scoring probability, but they’re invisible to public datasets. So while these models give us a useful directional understanding of shot quality, they’re not a perfect representation of what happens on the ice.
High‑Danger chance rate per game
Let’s start with high‑danger chances per game for both the Islanders and Kraken across coaching tenures.
The trends look similar to the goal‑scoring analysis from last week’s Data Dump. Across both teams, the tenure with the most high‑danger chances per game was Lambert’s time with the Islanders, and the tenure with the fewest was Lambert’s time (so far) with the Kraken. That contrast is interesting and a reminder that context matters.
Medium‑danger chance rate per game
Now let’s take a look at medium‑danger chances per game.
The pattern is similar to high‑danger chances, with one notable difference: the drop from Bylsma to Lambert is smaller here than it was in the high‑danger category.
Because the impact is so minimal, I’m skipping a deep dive into low‑danger chances.
Putting it together with expected goals
Continuing with NaturalStatTrick data, here’s the expected goals per game by coaching tenure.
Seeing Lambert’s Kraken tenure produce the highest expected goals per game is a little surprising, which makes me theorize that the 2025–26 team was unlucky, or that the prior four seasons were a little lucky. The truth is probably somewhere in the middle.
For the heck of it, let’s also look at average goals per game by season versus expected goals per game by season.
Truth be told, it’s not as simple as “lucky” or “unlucky,” but the public models do suggest the Kraken deserved more goals than they scored under Lambert last season.
What we learned
I am not sure we gained any additional insight with this additional analysis. What we did get was a baseline: Lambert’s Kraken generated enough expected goals to deserve more than they got, but they also produced the fewest high-danger chances in the league. That’s a tough combo. Call it unlucky, call it unsustainable, call it whatever you want, but if the Kraken want to score more this season, they’ll need to spend a lot less time on the perimeter and a lot more time in the places where goals are actually scored.
