For the second time this season, the Seattle Kraken have lost four games in a row and are falling farther out of the playoff picture. Let’s hope this is the darkest of days for the 2023-24 Seattle Kraken. The week of games started out poorly when the Kraken lost in regulation to the lowly Chicago Blackhawks, and it somehow got worse with a shutout loss to Anton Forsberg and the Ottawa Senators on Saturday night. This was supposed to be the week where the Kraken make up points in the standings against some weaker opponents, but it was not to be.
Sandwiched between those two brutal losses was a decent effort against the Toronto Maple Leafs where the Kraken scored two goals in the third period to force overtime in a game they eventually lost in a shootout. The team showed resilience by battling back, and it felt like they could use that to carry momentum into Saturday against Ottawa. They did not.
All is not lost… yet
There is still plenty of time left in the season for the boys to claw back into a playoff position with a string of victories, but this team has shown no momentum whatsoever. The longest win streak by the Kraken this season is just two games. The 2022-23 Kraken had win streaks of five and seven games at this point in the season.
There are only so many times that you can blame a loss on facing a strong goalie or getting a couple unlucky bounces before you realize there might be some bigger problems at play. The penalty kill has been very inconsistent, the team’s shooting percentage is one of the worst in the league, and the goaltending has struggled throughout the season.
The “third line”
I always hate referring to the Yanni Gourde/Oliver Bjorkstrand/Eeli Tolvanen line as the third line for the Kraken. It’s partially driven by the special teams play of all of them, but it is not uncommon to see that line with the most collective minutes played. That third line is consistently playing well, but the Kraken need Gourde and Bjorkstrand to score some goals.
Both are playing great hockey but can’t seem to find the back of the net. Collectively, they’ve had 30 shots on goal over the last four games but no goals to show for it. Neither of them needs to change the way they are playing; I just think they are getting a bit of bad luck right now that will turn around in due course. How about a Bjorkstrand hat trick next week? I say he does it.
The Kraken fourth line
Due to the injuries to Jaden Schwartz, Brandon Tanev, and Andre Burakovsky this season, coach Dave Hakstol is minimizing the usage of the fourth line. Last season it was common for the fourth line to get 12-14 minutes a night, but as of late, the fourth-line wingers are getting between six and nine minutes of ice time. Pierre-Edouard Bellemare is averaging right around 10 minutes a night, largely because of his time on the penalty kill.
Part of this is situational. The Kraken are behind more frequently this season and need to get some of their goal scorers more ice time by taking it away from the fourth line.
Last year’s strength was Seattle’s depth with Ryan Donato, Daniel Sprong, and Morgan Geekie often contributing with goals from the fourth line. It is not a perfect analysis, but the three of them averaged .65 goals per game. Tanev, Kailer Yamamoto, and Bellemare together are averaging .43 goals per game, but that’s not an accurate picture. Tanev has been hurt a good chunk of the season, and injuries farther up the lineup have Yamamoto slotting in on other lines. That has left the fourth line to be made up by a hodgepodge of fill-ins like Devin Shore, Andrew Poturalski, Marián Studenič, and now Max McCormick.
Other musings:
- Several of the World Junior Championship teams should start announcing their pre-tournament camp rosters this week. I expect Seattle Kraken prospects Jagger Firkus and Carson Rehkopf to be on the initial camp roster for Team Canada. Defenseman Ty Nelson could be another candidate, but he might be a bit of a long shot to make the final squad. Though Shane Wright is still eligible, he is not expected to play in the WJC this year.
- It is unlikely that the Chicago Blackhawks would loan former Seattle Thunderbird Kevin Korchinski to Team Canada. The last time the Blackhawks let one of their prospects play in the World Junior Championship, Kirby Dach broke his wrist and missed a majority of his 2020-21 season.
- Chris Driedger had a shutout for the Firebirds on Friday night against the Ontario Reign. In 13 games, he has a .916 save percentage in the AHL.
- Wright has at least one point in 11 of his 15 AHL games this season for the Coachella Valley Firebirds. My prediction at the beginning of the season was that Shane would get 20 to 30 games in the AHL and would eventually be called up by the Kraken to spend of the rest of the season in the NHL.
- Alex Wennberg’s assist on the game-tying goal Thursday night against the Toronto Maple Leafs is a perfect encapsulation of why he is such a good player and flies under the radar. He literally entered the offensive zone with the puck while the rest of the Kraken players were changing behind the play. There were four Maple Leafs in the zone with Wennberg but he managed to keep the puck and eventually find Jared McCann for this beauty of a goal. No highlights will show him entering the zone for a 1-on-4.
- Wennberg is on his last year of his current contract and could be a trade candidate for the Kraken if they are out of the playoff picture. He doesn’t get nearly enough credit for the attributes he brings to the game because a lot of people just look at his scoring.
Player performance
Eduard Sale (BAR/SEA) – The Seattle Kraken first-round pick from the most recent NHL Entry Draft has practically flown off the radar this season but still has 21 points in 23 games for the Barrie Colts in the OHL. Expect him to represent Czechia in the World Juniors tournament.
Conor Geekie (WEN/ARI) – The Arizona Coyotes prospect playing for the Wenatchee Wild has put up 12 points in three games, including four unanswered goals against Portland on Saturday. He has points in eight straight games.
Mathew Barzal (NYI) – The former Seattle Thunderbird had seven points in two games last week, including this overtime winner against the Hurricanes.
Chart of the week
In one of the pre-game media availabilities last week, Coach Hakstol got a question about defensive scoring that implied that is why the team has struggled to score this season. So, I looked it up.
So, yes, the defense has not contributed as much as it did at this point last season, but neither has the forward group. (Andre Burakovsky had nine goals at this point last season.)
Goal of the week
Seattle Kraken sixth-round selection in the 2023 NHL Entry Draft, Zeb Forsfjall, scored the overtime game winner for Skellefteå on Saturday.
Kraken themes for the week ahead
It seems like I am saying this every week, but the Kraken face another critical week, and the opponents don’t look that intimidating, though all of them have a better record than the Kraken. Seattle starts the week with a game Monday against the Montreal Canadiens to try to salvage this road trip before returning home for six games in 10 days. The Kraken have got to figure out a way to link more than two wins together if they want any hope of making the playoffs.
It would be great if the Kraken can get Burakovsky back for this stretch of games. He was back in a regular blue jersey at morning skate Monday, per our best friend, Alison Lukan, but is not expected to play against the Habs. The success of the season may depend on how Burakovsky plays when he comes back.
A question for the readers
What happens first, a shutout by a Seattle Kraken goalie, a hat trick by a Kraken player, or Shane Wright gets called up from Coachella?
I’m not sure how you can still hold optimism for this team. Only the Sharks and Hawks have fewer wins, with the latter having beaten the Kraken last week. Unsurprisingly, they haven’t been able to sustain their almost record setting shooting% from last year, and their strongest attribute (depth) left in free agency. Burakovsky and Schwartz missed time last year as well, but they had the horses (and luck) to make up for it. Not so much this year.
Their special teams is not good. The PP has gotten inordinately lucky based on the quality (or lack) that they’ve generated, and is ripe for negative regression. The PK likewise is terrible — there is no pressure at the blue line, and almost no pressuring the puck handler either. If the opposing team has highly skilled players, entering the zone and getting high quality shots are almost guaranteed.
Our goaltending isn’t good enough to bail them out. Daccord should be starting most nights at this point. This team’s hands are tied by Grubauer’s contract, but Daccord not only gives this team a better chance to win, but he also needs playing time to improve on his aggressiveness and positioning.
I agree with the commenter in the previous article — Eberle, Schultz and Wennberg all need to be gone at the deadline. Bring up the kids!! The future is bright.
Joey will come through with a shutout first, unless there are more forward injuries that would spur a Wright call up. We might be waiting a while for a hat trick.
Easy, Wright gets another call up, but I’ve soured on him. Fourth liner, it seems. Like Daccord; great in the minors, just OK in the big time.
I said at the start of the season that losing all those players to free agency would hurt this team and it sure hase. Haskol did not do Shane any favors by playing low minutes and when he played, I felt he played admirably. He will Not be my pick with McCann getting a hatrick in first during the homestand. A shut out may not happen for the rest of the season because you need the whole team to play a perfect game and that makes it my long shot. None of this is Haskols fault as he coaches what he gets and he got very little. We have a lot of over paid players doing little to justify such high salaries since they were almost all dumped by their original teams for doing what they are doing now.
Outside of Grubauer, who do you think is overpaid?
Brian Dumoulin… but at $3.15m that’s obviously not a huge problem. I’d much rather see Ryker Evans getting those minutes at this point, especially for a $2m+ discount.
Another excellent Monday Musings!
Thanks John.
100% agree… I do think something other than “the eye test” should be part of the “overpriced” conversation.
Either way I think the Kraken have very good value in their roster.
If I use Dom Luszczyszyn’s analysis from the Athletic…
Dumoulin is by far the worst value among skaters. His market value has been $800k this season for a -$2.4m contract. I think it’s possible this might actually be what he is.
Otherwise, there are a few players whose “performance” has been between -$1.4m and -$1.7m over the first twenty-five games.
One of those is Jaden Schwartz at -$1.4… if his $5.5 is “overpriced”, it’s marginal. In a down season, he’s been one of their best players.
Burakovski – He’s-$1.4. Obviously there’s not enough here to even discuss this.
Wennberg – I’m with John 100%. His value does not show up in conventional models. I think his -$1.7m isn’t properly quantified.
Beyond that you have:
Tanev is $-1.2. Even if that’s accurate, he more than makes up for it.
Larsson – Just $4m for a legit No.1 RD?… -$1.1m… puleeze.
I think it could be fair to take issue with roster construction and a lack of “high-end” finishing talent, but to say this team is loaded “a lot of over paid players doing little to justify such high salaries” just doesn’t seem accurate.
I appreciate the exercise of trying to get value out of individual players, but all players will probably show under performing on a team that is underperforming. I think Dumoulin has played fine as of late but looked bad the first two weeks of the season. Was that him just getting used to new system/teammates? maybe.
Public models like Dom’s are limited to the play-by-play data we can see on NHL(dot)com so it is unlikely to be very accurate. Things like individual passing, possession, and zone entries are not factored in these public models which eliminates a lot of gameplay and attributes.
I am not trying to crap on anything here, but the public models simply don’t have access to a lot of data which makes their job challenging.
Interesting, thanks for the numbers. This team hasn’t been around long enough to give out any long and stupid contracts. Grubauer is the only bad one and it’s not even for that much $$. The others are like +/- $1M, which like you said is close enough. I do agree with harpdog that Wennberg, up until recently, was playing the worst hockey I’ve ever seen him play. His hallmark was always strong skating, puck possession/takeaways, but he was coughing it up like crazy for the first month, and was extremely soft along the boards. Hopefully that’s behind him.
Oliver Bjorkstrand 5,350,000, Wenneberg $5,000,000, Adam Larsson $5,500,000, Jaden Schwartz age 31 $5,500,000 and Dunn $9,000,000 being paid for what he did last year and of course Phillip Grubauer G 32 $7,500,000 Chris Driedger G 29 $4,500,000
These players are also untradeable due to their age and salaries. Very soon, Matty will need to get paid big time. Unfortuantel, almost all of these players have a full or partial no trade clause. I many of you think Weeneberg is worth every penny but he has one big fault and that is his strength on the boards. The game is evolving to a bigger sstronger faster game and if you do not have those characteristics in your game, means you are a fringe player in my books. However, we are stuck with these guys for at least another year and this is my cause for concern since we have very little cap space left to make improvement. For the 2024/25, we are at the edge of the cap with only$830,000 under. I am broke so I am going to bet that the Kraken do not make the playoffs. BRING UP THE KIDS, THEY CAN NOT BE ANY WORSE, CAN THEY? In conclusion, we lost those players to free agency because of the salaries of these players and is a reason we cannot get any better for a couple of years. I would rather have a bad season without many of these players and get better draft picks and the ability to sign some quality free agents. I am also aware that the cap will probably rise next year but so what, it rises for all the other teams too.
Several of those numbers are structure, not cap hit. When people say “overpaid”, they’re talking about AAV.
for Oliver it is adjusted to $100,000 more, for Swartz no change, and Larsson a mil less and for Wenneberg 1/2 mil less. Above average salaries, any way you put it for average NHL players. For driedeger 2 mil less for a player in the AHL, Anyway you put it, they are still overpaid, in my books. Schultz at 32 is getting paid almost the same a Dumoulin at 33. We were very lucky last year but without better play from all the above players, we will not even get 85 points. Time to get the most trade capital as we can for those players and start using the youth. When you take 4, 5, and 6 round picks for players, your seasons will not be good unless you improve on free agency. Plus there is a very low chance of the 4,5,6 round player to make the NHL and even lower for them to be impact players. Matty is our only drafted player playing in the NHL full time. Sometimes players in the minors play down to their competition and to their teammates. They need that chance, not 7-10 minutes a game.
all stats came from https://www.spotrac.com/nhl/seattle-kraken/cap/.
I love Monday Musings and yes, it is always darkest before dawn unless you live in Northern Alaska in the winter. I hope they get out of Alaska sometime soon
Wennberg really is one of those sneaky-good difference-makers. I am watching tonight’s game, and, wow, does Wenny know how to enter the offensive zone with the puck. I bet that he’s going to start piling up the assists once Burakovsky gets back. That pairing was dynamite last year for as little as it lasted.
Unfortunately, it will not last any longer this year. Boist is right that Wennberg will probably be gone by the deadline. They can’t afford to close out the season with all those pending UFAs on the roster. Their pipeline is not quite rich enough yet, and I am all for giving Francis more draft picks to play with given how well he has drafted so far. It is really going to hurt to say goodbye to Jordan Eberle. I just hope that the team he goes to gets his name on the Cup.