Just when we thought it could not get any worse, it did. The Kraken are now 0-6-2 in their last eight games and have the second-longest losing streak in their brief history. They currently have 23 points on the season, which is the exact same number of points they had in their inaugural season after the same number of games (29). I can’t say it won’t get any worse, but this losing streak will end… eventually.
Since the shootout was introduced in 2005-06, nine teams had 23 points at their respective 29-game mark, and only one of those teams has made the playoffs, the 2007-08 Capitals. Barring a minor miracle, this team will not be making the playoffs, although I guess an 11 percent chance of making it is better than no chance at all.
How did we get here?
The number of goals scored against Kraken goalies last season is identical to the goals scored against Kraken goalies this season, 91 goals against after 29 games. Goaltending has not been great this season, but it is consistent with last season.
The average goals scored per game at this point last season was 3.4 compared to 2.5 this season. The .9 drop in goal scoring is the second-biggest drop in the league. Only Buffalo with their 1.1 drop is worse.
It would be easy to point to the departures of Daniel Sprong, Morgan Geekie, Ryan Donato, Karson Kuhlman, and Carson Soucy as the main contributors to the change in goal scoring this season. They had a collective 18 goals at this point last season.
However, when comparing against the players that are currently on the Kraken that were not with the club at this point (Eeli Tolvanen, Tye Kartye, Kailer Yamamoto, Pierre-Edouard Bellemare, and Brian Dumoulin), those players also have a collective 18 goals at the 29-game mark.
If we isolate just the players that were on the team for the first 29 games last season, the narrative changes quite a bit.
As most of you know, Andre Burakovsky has had multiple injuries this season and has yet to register a goal in the seven games for which he has suited up. Matty Beniers struggled early in the season and appears to be slumping again without a goal in his last six games. Jordan Eberle is struggling a bit, but I do feel he has looked a bit better as of late.
Where do we go from here?
I mentioned it on the Sound Of Hockey Podcast last week, that the organization should not make a trade to improve its chance to make the playoffs. The odds are long, and there is little chance the team would be able to improve enough without giving up a significant asset. Barring that miracle I discussed at the beginning of this article, they will be sellers at the trade deadline.
The easy decisions on who to move at the trade deadline will be around the players on expiring contracts. Alex Wennberg, Justin Schultz, and Jordan Eberle could all be moved. The tougher decision will be the players with term remaining on their contracts that might appeal to a playoff team looking to make a run.
Yanni Gourde and Brandon Tanev are the ones that jump off the roster as appealing players to playoff teams. The thought of trading Yanni makes me sick to my stomach, but if the right offer comes along, general manager Ron Francis would have to consider it. Yanni seems to mean so much to this organization and brings energy on the ice that is infectious, which might mean the price to move him might be too high for teams to consider.
Assuming the Kraken are open for business, do not expect a trade anytime soon. December is one of the slowest months of the season for transactions. There were three trades last December, and there is a good chance you don’t recognize any of the players that were involved.
Reader question: You’re the general manager of the Seattle Kraken. What would it take for you to trade Yanni Gourde?
Other musings
- Over the last three games, I think Wennberg has been one of the best Kraken players on the ice. I would love him signed to an extension, but with Shane Wright waiting in the wings, I can’t see it happening. Wright will be centering the second or third line next season… if not sooner.
- The Kraken had two losing streaks of seven or more games in their inaugural season; one that lasted seven games and another that lasted nine.
- I like what I am seeing out of Ryker Evans so far. It seems that he is getting more and more confident with the pace of the NHL with each game played. Unless things go sideways, I imagine we will see him with the big club and in the lineup for much of the remainder of the season.
- I must be a glutton for punishment because on Sunday morning I re-watched the first power play for both the Lightning and Kraken from the first period of Saturday night’s game. The Lightning had the puck in the offensive zone for 1:55 of the two-minute power play. The Kraken had the puck in the zone for 48 seconds of their first two-minute power play.
- In the Kraken’s first power play in the Sunday game against the Minnesota Wild, they kept the puck in the offensive zone the entire two minutes of the power play. I don’t recall that ever happening before.
- The Kraken won just two of nine (22.2%) face-offs on the power play in the game against Tampa Bay on Saturday, but on Sunday, they won nine of 11 (81.8%) of power-play face-offs.
- The San Jose Sharks are now 5-2-2 since losing to the Kraken 7-1 on Nov. 22. The Kraken are 0-6-2 in the same time span.
- With Philipp Grubauer out with a lower-body, not-good-looking injury, we should see Chris Driedger tend the net for a few games. Driedger’s last regular-season NHL game was May 1, 2022.
- I always love watching the World Junior Championship, but this year will be something special. Up to seven different Kraken prospects could be playing in the U20 tournament at the end of the month. 13 of the 19 preliminary-round games could feature at least one Kraken prospect.
- One of those prospects that has a shot at making Team Canada is Carson Rehkopf. On Friday night, he had three assists and the game-winning goal in overtime to cap a four-goal deficit comeback win for the Kitchener Rangers. He is likely a couple years away from suiting up for the Kraken, but in the meantime, he is such a fun player to track and watch.
- My money is on Sweden to win this tournament.
Player performances
Jared McCann (SEA) – McCann is the only Kraken player with more than one goal over the last four games. (He has two.) McCann is having a heck of a season. He has 13 goals in 29 games and is on pace for another 30-plus-goal campaign.
Matt Boldy (MIN) – Boldy has six points in his last four games for the Wild including the game-winning goal on Sunday against the Kraken. When he is not playing the Kraken, he is fun to watch. He was drafted in the 2019 NHL Draft and had his breakout season in 2022-23. He is a subtle reminder to be patient with Kraken prospects like Beniers and Wright.
Carter Hart (PHI) – Has won his last three starts with a collective .958 save percentage. The former Everett Silvertip goaltender has nine wins on the season and is one of the reasons the Philadelphia Flyers are sitting in a playoff spot in the Metropolitan Division.
Chart of the week
The Kraken have not scored the first goal in a game since the San Jose game before Thanksgiving and up until the Tampa Bay game, had not led in any game since that San Jose game. Here is a look at the elapsed time they have been leading, trailing or tied for each game.
You want to avoid being in the red, and there is a lot of red in this chart for the most recent games.
Goal of the week
Who doesn’t love a good Carson Rehkopf goal?
The week ahead
The Kraken have three tough games to close out the homestand. The Florida Panthers come to town on Tuesday, Chicago Blackhawks on Thursday, and then they take on the LA Kings on Sunday. I think the Kraken have played well over the last three games, so they are due for a win or two. In classic NHL shoulder shrug fashion, I wouldn’t be surprised if they won two out of three of those games. Other than being part of an eight-game losing streak, I’ve enjoyed going to the games lately, and I continue to look forward to rooting on this team at CPA.
Go Kraken.
Man, that 2nd chart is U-G-L-Y. I tend to record games and then watch them in bed, and the past few I have gotten spoiled and haven’t even bothered. Losing is one thing, but falling behind and never having a chance because you can’t score is just soooo painful.
I wish I could see a way forward, but right now, selling at the deadline and reloading really seems like the best option. Doesn’t make this season too much fun to watch, but if they bring up a bunch of the kids after clearing some vets, that could be fun.
If I’m GMRF I take an assessment of the team and consider if we need to adjust how we use “the analytics”. This team lacks toughness and a strong net-front presence. When assembling this team, did we undervalue grit or overvalue playmaking? I think we also have to look at the coaching staff. The PP has been saggy for 2 years and the sizeable number of defensive breakdowns suggests the coaches are trying to install a system that is confusing or counter-intuitive to players. These guys have been playing hockey for 14-30 years of their life, they should know on a 2-1 against you take the pass, not the shooter.
They didn’t build a team. They have no interest in building a team.
Or they are incompetent. I actually lean towards them being totally inept and having a terrible philosophy.
Would have been nice to actually try and compete like vegas but Francis apparently wants them to be the Minnesota Wild.
People need to stop comparing Seattle to Vegas. Vegas gamed the system which forced the NHL to change the rules before the Kraken expansion draft. And Vegas has no issue whatsoever auction off their future for the right now. So unless you want to see Beniers, Evans, Wright, and whomever used as trade pieces, this narrative has to stop.
And if you look at the the basic metrics for both expansion draft day teams, you’ll see how equal they were in theory:
Average Age
Vegas – 27.6
Seattle – 28.4 (Remove Giordano and that number matches Vegas’)
Average Points Per Game
Vegas: .40
Seattle: .48
Starting Goaltender Comparison
Vegas: SV% .912 GAA 2.58
Seattle: SV% .920 GAA 2.34
The issue Seattle has right now is lack of top six top tier scoring, a clear number one defender and bottom pairing, and a net front presence.
They’ve got depth scoring and energy for days.
@Mild Spoilers.
The NHL did not change the expansion draft rules after Vegas. Seattle drafted under the very same rules. This isn’t a comment on draft or build strategy… just a clarification.
@Mild Spoilers – The NHL didn’t change the rules, teams were smarter, and GMRF was far less aggressive in strategy. Roster construction thru the draft, trade, and thru 3 years of free agency could have addressed the lack of top line scoring (or scoring in general) and weak defensive depth, but again GMRF has a more conservative approach.
Additionally, you’re crazy if you think every fan wouldn’t take 4 out of the first 5 years being in the playoffs, 2x in the Stanley Cup, with a Championship and trading young players to make that happen vs keeping the kids and being bad to mediocre for that period.
If I’m GMRF I take an assessment of the team and consider if we need to adjust how we use “the analytics”. This team lacks toughness and a strong net-front presence. When assembling this team, did we undervalue grit or overvalue playmaking? I think we also have to look at the coaching staff. The PP has been saggy for 2 years and the sizeable number of defensive breakdowns suggests the coaches are trying to install a system that is confusing or counter-intuitive to players. These guys have been playing hockey for 14-30 years of their life, they should know on a 2-1 against you take the pass, not the shooter.
A lot of points to make, considering, as you point out, the playoffs are not happening this year.
The bean counters will not likely be happy, as that means season ticket renewals will be off.
But the amateur hockey scouts will be happy, as it means a higher draft choices.
And if RF plays his cards right, he could haul in lots of draft picks, hopefully holding out for 2R draft picks wherever possible.
Clearly every UFA has to go: Eberle, Wennberg, Schultz, Bellemare, and Megna are all the kind of players who will help playoff bound teams in some way. Even Yamamoto could go.
I really think the Kraken should undue the mistake they made in signing Grubauer to a long-term contract. Three season of sub 0.900 goaltending for $6m a year is bad value. There should be a playoff bound team who wants playoff Grubi and would pony up a decent draft choice.
More draft picks is good. Earlier selection is good. More cap space is good. Getting rid of all of those contracts, plus the increase in the cap next year less their replacements could given the team almost $20m in additional cap space of bring in two high-end top scorers.
To do this, RF needs to admit he has made mistakes. Not sure who his boss is (is there a head of hockey ops for this team yet?) but someone needs to push him in the right direction or we are going to see a replay of Carolina (good draft picks, poor goalie choices, too conservative, fired).
Nobody is going to pay a draft pick for Grubauer on $5.9 million for three more years. Especially not a playoff team that will likely be tight to the cap anyway. The only way the Kraken could trade him is if the Kraken pay another team to take that contract. And I don’t even see that happening.
Most likely scenario is Gru is on the team until it gets to the point where they could buy out the remainder of the contract… but that’s a ways off.
That is because the Kraken will retaining $1m-$1.5m per year on the Grubi trade. Therein the draft pick. The financials of retaining probably is better than the buy-out.
Need to get Gru to waive his full NMC if you expect him to get traded this season. Off season it changes to a modified NMC which give more flexibility but doesn’t solve the issue now.
It’s an NTC – No TRADE Clause.
An NMC – No MOVEMENT Clause – means not only can he not be traded, he can’t be sent down either. Grubauer CAN be sent down… just like Jack Campbell.
And honestly… everyone… Grubauer is “untradeable”… period. Nobody is taking three and a half years of him. Even with picks and a “double retain”, there are better goalies for $1.4m. Any trade that would move him would be absolutely wreckless, and Ron Francis has never made anything close to a “wreckless” trade.
According to CF, he does not have a NMC, but a NTC this season (M-NTC thereafter). I would imagine, after playing on playoff contenders before the Kraken, he would like to change his situation as well, as Seattle will not contend during his contract period.
If the scouts are happy about this then they should be canned.
The goal is winning not drafting. If anyone, *anyone* in the org is happy about this they have a lousy loser attitude and need to go.
I can’t believe our incompetent coward of a GM turned the expansion draft into this mess. Completely wasted potential. he’s turning the kraken into another Carolina team.
and no, they were never good with Francis in charge. He was 5 years into a 15 year plan to build a team.
Agree we’re not a playoff team and sellers again. Everything needs to be reassessed with this organization starting at our draft and player acquisition strategies and the system those players are asked to play in.
Staying in the mediocre middle serves no one, you’re either doing everything you can for a cup or you’re doing everything you can to get the elite skill players that can make up the foundation that can get you and sustain you there.
I can accept rebuilding with a reasonable timeline (ie. somewhere between instant like the Knights and previous old expansion rules teams ~6-8 years), but I want to see there is an actual strategy and an identity being built which we have neither of right now. I want to see that this team and org hates losing. Please do not make this team and org into the Mariners of hockey.
>the Mariners of hockey
The Ottawa Senators already exist.
Ottawa has been to a Stanley Cup and has a new owner that gives a shit > Mariners
it’s going to be another 5 years before this team looks even remotely close to acceptable again.
I don’t know if I can forgive this franchise for the mismangement.
Ridiculous prices and locked in increases every year, can’t sell a ticket for half face value.
Francis should be required to send every season ticket holder a 10% refund out of his salary. Can’t wait until they fire that coward.
I can’t stand fans who complain about not being able to sell their tickets for above face value. I have season tickets, I go to every game I have tickets for and then some. I’m not entitled to the ability to sell my tickets above face value. I didn’t buy season tickets as a business venture, I bought them because I like hockey and want to root for a team.
It’s fine to feel disappointed about how this season has gone, but the common whiny refrain of complaining that you can’t get your money back when you sell your tickets is tired and frankly idiotic. Were you unaware that your expansion team isn’t guaranteed to be good every year? Do you actually like hockey, or do you just like being able to make money off a good team?
Trading Yanni would suck but his value is only going to keep going up to the TDL as teams look for answers. Ditto for Tanev. Especially with them both having term but I also agree Yanni is getting close to regression level. At what point do they just see what the farm has and if it can stick because whatever they have at the NHL level sure isn’t great. I thought Lind should have gotten a shot on the roster before Yamamoto but seems like he should get another look.
Also frustrating at how many back door goals the team has given up this year. Hard to fault the goalie on those, seems more like a defensive systems issue.
Seems you can’t reply to a reply.
For djdw00, not sure who you think would be reckless in a Grubi trade, the receiving team or RF.
However, properly structured, and with a big emphasis on his prior playoff work and lifetime SV% pre-Kraken, teams who are desperate to get to the Cup finals this year and whose goaltending is problematic (Carolina, Edmonton, Toronto, New Jersey) will do almost anything to get there.
For teams like that, who will not be rational at TDL, could very find that Grubi is the best goalie on the market. The problem is not matching Grubi to a desperate team, but RF’s inability to do the necessary marketing and selling. George McPhee he is not.
I’m not sure anybody could conceivably market well enough to make Grubauer an appealing trade target. He has a 2.5 season sample size of well below average to terrible goaltending for an unreasonable amount of $$. Even if he were making $1MM, he’d be a straight dump at this point. He has played well in exactly one playoff series over his entire tenure. Even NHL GMs aren’t that stupid.
Yeah, nobody is looking to pick up Grubauer now, but there is also the question of whether it would make sense for the Kraken to move him. It wouldn’t do much good to move on if the team has to retain a ton of salary and then go pay another goaltender on top of continuing to pay Grubauer. I say, keep him around until some unforseeable opportunity arises. Besides, he’s good in the playoffs, and right now the problem with the team is clearly not the goaltending. There are other bigger issues to correct that actually can be corrected. For example, it would be fairly easy to find a big, tough veteran winger to play alongside Beniers and McCann. Hell, John Hayden might fit the bill.
Even at a reduced $1.475m x 3+ AAV nobody is going to want Grubauer. Additionally, out of pocket he’s owed $16.9m over the final three and $3.96m for the remainder of this season. To even buy the AAV down they’d have to retain half AND find a team to broker another quarter. What it would take in assets or retention or both to move a $21m – $5.9 x 3+ contract for a goalie whose last two-plus seasons and 110+ games look like Grubauer’s is outlandish and to convince a team he’s what they need to contend is beyond even the salesmanship of the mighty George McPhee. They’d be better off grinding through this season and buying him out at the window… but even that is horrendously painful.
I just checked and there seems to be no head of hockey ops except Francis. That is the first mistake, there must be someone over him to hold him accountable.
What I see is that he is going down the same path as he did in Carolina, with the same good points (drafting) and the same bad points (inability to evaluate goalies, too conservative on pulling the trigger on needed trades).
The Kraken really need another voice above Francis giving some vision to where this is all going over the next 3-7 years, before fans start tuning out.
Short-term, the best direction would seem to be to sell upcoming UFAs for as high a draft picks as possible, simultaneously freeing up cap space and giving a few of the draft picks from the first year (Evans, Winterton, Ottavainen, Melanson) plus Wright an NHL run out in the last month plus of this season. Then use the gain cap space to sign at least one high-end offensive talent (Nylander or Lindholm this season, Draisaital next season).
Making a winning team is not only important for the fans but also to attract and retain players. Who is going to want to go to or stay on a perennial bottom performing team?
As an aside, does anyone have a current evaluation of Ville Ottavainen in CV? He certainly has the size, is right shot, is young enough, and has some pretty good AHL stats (0.5 pts/g and +10 +/-).
The thing about Gourde is what can Francis expect to get in return. And it’s not going to be much. I am guessing at the very most, a second round pick and lesser player, which they don’t need. The Kraken have nine picks in the upcoming draft and I will guarantee that other players on this roster are going to return picks at the deadline or the draft table.
The Kraken need to look to free agency to better the team. Trading peripheral players at this point is a useless gesture. If the team stays the same going into the offseason, they will have close to $23 million is cap space with all the RFA and UFA contracts on their books. Now I am going to guess Beniers signs either a smaller bridge in the ballpark of 2 x $3 million or an 8 x $8 million contract. Francis has never given out an eight year deal in his career. If it’s the latter, they have $15 million to fill the roster.
The biggest needs are going to scoring winger or two, number 1/2 defenseman, and a bottom pair D. There are some wonderful names going UFA this offseason that could fill those slots.
But until they get an ACTUAL top tier netminder, none of this truly matters.
so if they get a top tier netminder doesn’t that put them in the same cap hole as Grubauer? As for Gourde, unless they’re getting super high draft picks don’t you have to consider his value as what he already provides to our team? I feel like the tradeoff there needs to be pretty high to let him go. He’s a glue to the team and the fans, same with Tanev. I do wish they’d make some coaching changes – clearly what they’re doing now isn’t effective. If you scrap all the players and start over, but keep the coaching, are you basically doing the same thing? I have no idea…
I personally don’t care if Gourde or Tanev are on the team if they don’t help the team win, and winning they are not. In fact, the Kraken have the lowest win% in the NHL, lower than the lowly Sharks, the Blackhawks, and Bluejackets. I think we all anticipated some regression this year but this is extreme. GMRF will get a couple years to make it right, and hopefully he does, but it’s going to be a very painful couple of years.
Let’s maybe start by appointing a captain to help motivate the team. Yanni jumps out as a good candidate.